[ { "event_id": "atlas-thule-expansion", "name": "Thule Inuit expansion across the Arctic", "start": 1200, "end": 1400, "date_label": "c. 1200–1400", "region": "North America", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Thule Inuit (ancestral Inuit), from northern Alaska and the Bering Strait" ], "victims": [ "Late Dorset people (Tuniit)" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States", "Canada" ], "victim_countries": [ "Canada", "Greenland" ], "container_countries": [ "United States", "Canada", "Greenland" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "thule-expansion", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case, not a claim that Inuit are foreign colonizers in any modern legal sense. Thule people are the direct ancestors of today's Inuit.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Around 1200 CE, Thule whalers pushed east from Alaska across the Canadian Arctic to Greenland, reaching Ellesmere by mid-century. As they arrived, the Late Dorset, the Tuniit of Inuit oral memory, vanished. Archaeologists still debate how much the two peoples actually met. Thule seem to have salvaged Dorset tools more than lived beside their makers, and ancient DNA finds no Dorset ancestry in the Inuit. Demographic succession is certain. The mechanism is not.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "thule_dorset", "title": "Park 1993", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-antiquity/article/abs/dorsetthule-succession-in-arctic-north-america-assessing-claims-for-culture-contact/0AFBC36002C2CDF39D1108EC333C939A" }, { "id": "thule_dates", "title": "Friesen 2019", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-antiquity/article/radiocarbon-evidence-for-fourteenthcentury-dorset-occupation-in-the-eastern-north-american-arctic/FD0F16331937B43B60CF3BE3BC7DF6B7" } ], "rendered_case_id": "thule-expansion", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.8384210079, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.1659313728, "unknown_bound_high": 15.7746392465 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 85.617430903, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.617430903, "unknown_bound_high": 85.617430903 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 77.145533792, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.145533792, "unknown_bound_high": 77.145533792 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1213504695, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8987147883 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 92.6045051906, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6045051906, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6045051906 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-teutonic-prussia", "name": "Teutonic conquest & colonization of Prussia", "start": 1226, "end": 1400, "date_label": "1226–c. 1400", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "German-speaking colonists of the Holy Roman Empire", "the Teutonic Order" ], "victims": [ "Old Prussians, the Prūsai (Pomesanians, Sambians, Nadruvians and others)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany" ], "victim_countries": [ "Poland", "Lithuania", "Russia" ], "container_countries": [ "Germany", "Poland", "Lithuania", "Latvia", "Estonia", "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "teutonic-prussia", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Teutonic conquest & colonization of Prussia, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "In 1226 the Golden Bull of Rimini, an imperial charter from Frederick II, handed the Teutonic Order a crusade against the pagan Old Prussians. Fifty years of war broke them, and the Great Prussian Uprising of 1260–74 was the last serious resistance. Behind the knights came castles, chartered towns under Kulm law, and German-speaking farmers, and the Baltic-speaking Prūsai were killed, subjected, Christianized and slowly absorbed until their language died out entirely by the eighteenth century.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "pluskowski", "title": "Pluskowski 2013", "url": "https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003222767" }, { "id": "teutonic_prussia", "title": "Maleszka & Czaja 2022", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0963926821000250" } ], "rendered_case_id": "teutonic-prussia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 57.6603274638, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.6603274638, "unknown_bound_high": 57.6603274638 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 71.4337234094, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.4337234094, "unknown_bound_high": 71.4337234094 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 76.5605102784, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.5605102784, "unknown_bound_high": 76.5605102784 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 33.0422437836, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.0422437836, "unknown_bound_high": 33.0422437836 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 71.59729241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.59729241, "unknown_bound_high": 71.59729241 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 67.4600076947, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.4600076947, "unknown_bound_high": 67.4600076947 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-medieval-valencia", "name": "Christian colonization of Valencia", "start": 1238, "end": 1400, "date_label": "1238–c. 1400", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Christian settlers from Catalonia and Aragon" ], "victims": [ "Muslim Valencians (Mudéjars)", "later Moriscos" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "Spain" ], "container_countries": [ "Spain" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "medieval-valencia", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "A localized medieval case. The later forced conversions and the 1609 expulsion of the Moriscos belong to a longer history not shown here as one continuous phase.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "When James I of Aragon took Valencia in 1238, scribes wrote the colonization down in the Llibre del Repartiment, house by house and field by field, the property of a Muslim kingdom handed to Christian settlers from Catalonia and Aragon. The newcomers ruled as a minority over a Mudéjar majority for generations, colonial settlement without immediate demographic replacement. Robert Burns called it exactly that, medieval colonialism, the exploitation of a subject population through tax and lordship.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "medieval_valencia", "title": "Burns 1975, Medieval Colonialism", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400867592" }, { "id": "qc_valencia_colony", "title": "Bulletin critique des Annales islamologiques, review of El naixement d'una colònia: domination and resistance in Valencia, 1238–1276", "url": "https://www.persee.fr/doc/bcai_0259-7373_2001_num_17_1_991_t4_0144_0000_1" } ], "rendered_case_id": "medieval-valencia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 67.0986315435, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.0986315435, "unknown_bound_high": 67.0986315435 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.4395292349, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.4395292349, "unknown_bound_high": 69.4395292349 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 70.6850036836, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.6850036836, "unknown_bound_high": 70.6850036836 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 27.6865525903, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.6865525903, "unknown_bound_high": 27.6865525903 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.3470884904, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.3470884904, "unknown_bound_high": 49.3470884904 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 83.9804700813, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.9804700813, "unknown_bound_high": 83.9804700813 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-nam-tien", "name": "Vietnamese southward expansion (Nam tiến)", "start": 1069, "end": 1832, "date_label": "1069–1832", "region": "South and Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Kinh (Việt) settlers under Đại Việt and the Nguyễn" ], "victims": [ "Cham (Chăm)", "Khmer / Khmer Krom" ], "agent_countries": [ "Vietnam" ], "victim_countries": [ "Vietnam", "Cambodia", "Laos" ], "container_countries": [ "Vietnam", "Cambodia", "Laos" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "nam-tien", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "The familiar image of one smooth “southward march” hides long pauses and sharp regional differences.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "A 763-year umbrella conflates conquest of Cham polities, Vietnamese settler movement, incorporation of the Mekong delta, and later Nguyễn state colonization; each phase affected different peoples and places.", "legacy_story": "Over seven centuries the Vietnamese state moved south, absorbing the Cham and Khmer lands along the coast. The hinge was 1471, when Lê Thánh Tông stormed the Cham capital Vijaya. Vietnamese annals claim 60,000 killed and 30,000 taken, an event George Dutton frames as the genocide of Champa. Nguyễn lords then colonized the Khmer Mekong delta, including Prey Nokor, the future Saigon, before Minh Mạng annexed the last Cham principality in 1832.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "champa", "title": "Dutton 2023", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108655989.023" }, { "id": "nam_tien", "title": "Li Tana 1998", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022463400021500" } ], "rendered_case_id": "nam-tien", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 67.1897874569, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.1897874569, "unknown_bound_high": 67.1897874569 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 77.1645223457, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.1645223457, "unknown_bound_high": 77.1645223457 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 78.6568184132, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.6568184132, "unknown_bound_high": 78.6568184132 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 41.5596302734, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.5596302734, "unknown_bound_high": 41.5596302734 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 64.521179368, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.521179368, "unknown_bound_high": 64.521179368 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-inca-mitma", "name": "Inca resettlement system (mitma)", "start": 1438, "end": 1533, "date_label": "c. 1438–1533", "region": "Latin America", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Mitmaqkuna (Inca state colonists)" ], "victims": [ "Quechua (Runa)", "Aymara", "Cañari", "Chachapoya", "Colla & Lupaca" ], "agent_countries": [ "Peru" ], "victim_countries": [ "Peru", "Bolivia", "Ecuador", "Chile", "Argentina", "Colombia" ], "container_countries": [ "Peru", "Bolivia", "Ecuador", "Chile", "Argentina", "Colombia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "inca-mitma", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Inca resettlement system (mitma), as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "The Inca colonized from within. From Pachacuti's reign the state uprooted whole communities, the mitmaqkuna, and transplanted them across Tawantinsuyu. Loyal colonists were planted among the newly conquered, rebels scattered far from home, farmers moved to open the maize estates of the Cochabamba valley. Cañari and Chachapoya potters carried Cusco techniques a thousand kilometres north, a physical trace of forced migration. The Spanish conquest shattered the system, and the displaced tried to walk home.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "inca_davidson", "title": "Davidson, Fehren-Schmitz & Llamas 2021 (Genes)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.3390/genes12020215" }, { "id": "inca_lara", "title": "Lara, Ramón & Bray 2024", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/laq.2023.39" } ], "rendered_case_id": "inca-mitma", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.2328047654, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.2328047654, "unknown_bound_high": 90.2328047654 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 44.1199038964, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.1199038964, "unknown_bound_high": 44.1199038964 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.0808025937, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.0808025937, "unknown_bound_high": 75.0808025937 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 25.7366693461, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.7366693461, "unknown_bound_high": 25.7366693461 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.0033599451, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.0033599451, "unknown_bound_high": 59.0033599451 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 50.0616955437, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.0616955437, "unknown_bound_high": 50.0616955437 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-plantations-ireland", "name": "Plantations of Ireland", "start": 1550, "end": 1700, "date_label": "1550s–17th century", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "English and Welsh planters (New English)", "Lowland Scots (Ulster Scots)", "London livery companies" ], "victims": [ "Gaelic Irish (Gaeil)", "Old English Catholic landholders" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Ireland", "United Kingdom" ], "container_countries": [ "Ireland", "United Kingdom" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "plantations-ireland", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Plantations of Ireland, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Laois–Offaly, Munster, Ulster, and Cromwellian confiscation were separate projects with different dates, sponsors, settler streams, and removals.", "legacy_story": "England colonized Ireland by planting it. The policy opened under Mary I with Laois–Offaly in 1556, ran through Munster after the Desmond wars, and reached its scale in Ulster from 1609, where six escheated counties were parcelled to English and Scottish settlers. By 1641 perhaps 100,000 British migrants had arrived, tens of thousands of them Lowland Scots. Catholic-held land fell from around three-fifths of the island to a seventh by 1703 as war and confiscation did their work.", "legacy_fit": "core", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "ireland", "title": "Canny 2001, Making Ireland British", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/book/9765" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "plantations-ireland", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 66.6345618996, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.6345618996, "unknown_bound_high": 66.6345618996 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 88.9087424438, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.9087424438, "unknown_bound_high": 88.9087424438 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 76.5605102784, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.5605102784, "unknown_bound_high": 76.5605102784 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 27.3807855711, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.3807855711, "unknown_bound_high": 27.3807855711 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 79.3881871599, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.3881871599, "unknown_bound_high": 79.3881871599 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7271937107, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.7271937107, "unknown_bound_high": 59.7271937107 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-bashkir-lands", "name": "Volga–Ural & Bashkir lands", "start": 1552, "end": 1900, "date_label": "1552–19th century", "region": "Russia and Central Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Russian peasant colonists", "nobles buying alienated land", "Orenburg Cossacks" ], "victims": [ "Bashkirs (Basqorttar)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Russia" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "bashkir-lands", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Volga–Ural & Bashkir lands, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The case compresses imperial annexation, repeated Bashkir uprisings, land-survey expropriation, factory and peasant settlement, and nineteenth-century agrarian colonization into one undifferentiated arc.", "legacy_story": "After Kazan fell in 1552 the Bashkirs kept their patrimonial land rights on paper, and lost them in practice. Forts at Ufa and Orenburg anchored colonization, and revolt after revolt was crushed, in 1662, 1704, 1735–40, and again under Salawat Yulayev in the Pugachev rising. Between 1869 and 1878 alone the state alienated nearly a million desiatinas of Bashkir land through forced sales. Edyta Bojanowska's study shows even Tolstoy buying Bashkir steppe cheap while its nomads were pushed off.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "bashkir", "title": "Bojanowska 2022 (Slavic Review)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/slr.2022.148" }, { "id": "russian_periphery", "title": "Breyfogle, Schrader & Sunderland 2007", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/Peopling-the-Russian-Periphery-Borderland-Colonization-in-Eurasian-History/Breyfogle-Schrader-Sunderland/p/book/9780415544238" } ], "rendered_case_id": "bashkir-lands", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 65.4681643011, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.4681643011, "unknown_bound_high": 65.4681643011 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 74.1946377483, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.1946377483, "unknown_bound_high": 74.1946377483 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.9213670422, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.9213670422, "unknown_bound_high": 72.9213670422 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 46.0641628893, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.0641628893, "unknown_bound_high": 46.0641628893 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 72.1111984691, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.1111984691, "unknown_bound_high": 72.1111984691 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 70.683089487, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.683089487, "unknown_bound_high": 70.683089487 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-circassia", "name": "Circassia", "start": 1763, "end": 1880, "date_label": "1763–1864+", "region": "Russia and Central Asia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Kuban & Black Sea Cossacks", "Russian and Ukrainian peasant colonists" ], "victims": [ "Circassians / Adyghe", "Ubykh", "Abazins", "Abkhaz" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Russia", "Georgia", "Turkey", "Jordan", "Syria" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia", "Georgia", "Turkey", "Jordan", "Syria" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "circassia", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Circassia, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "The end of the Russo-Circassian war in 1864 was also the emptying of a homeland. When the last resistance broke at Qbaada above Sochi, Russia expelled the Adyghe wholesale to the Ottoman Empire. Walter Richmond estimates at least 600,000 dead of massacre, starvation and exposure, roughly three-quarters of the Circassian people. The survivors scattered to Turkey, Jordan and Syria, and Cossack colonists settled the cleared coast.", "legacy_fit": "strong", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "circassia", "title": "Richmond 2013, The Circassian Genocide", "url": "https://www.rutgersuniversitypress.org/bucknell/the-circassian-genocide/9780813560670" }, { "id": "circassia_kreiten", "title": "Kreiten 2009", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/14623520903118953" } ], "rendered_case_id": "circassia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.4695480305, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.4695480305, "unknown_bound_high": 93.4695480305 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 80.5753452051, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.5753452051, "unknown_bound_high": 80.5753452051 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 84.5953809049, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.5953809049, "unknown_bound_high": 84.5953809049 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 91.9206273087, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.9206273087, "unknown_bound_high": 91.9206273087 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 83.4125757097, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.4125757097, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4125757097 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 79.7718019481, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.7718019481, "unknown_bound_high": 79.7718019481 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-kazakh-steppe", "name": "Kazakh Steppe", "start": 1730, "end": 1933, "date_label": "1730s–1930s", "region": "Russia and Central Asia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Russian and Ukrainian peasant settlers", "Cossack hosts" ], "victims": [ "Kazakhs (Qazaqtar)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Kazakhstan", "Kyrgyzstan" ], "container_countries": [ "Kazakhstan", "Kyrgyzstan", "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "kazakh-steppe", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Kazakh Steppe, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Imperial conquest, Cossack lines, late-imperial peasant colonization, Soviet collectivization and famine, and later demographic engineering are distinct processes; the existing case hides the breaks.", "legacy_story": "Russian protection over the Kazakh khans, sworn in 1731, hardened into land seizure. Roughly 1.5 million settlers from European Russia and Ukraine took the pasture in the late-tsarist colonization surge, and the khanates were abolished outright. Then Soviet collectivization brought famine: Sarah Cameron finds about 1.5 million dead in 1930–33, some 1.3 million of them Kazakhs, proportionally the worst toll of any Soviet nationality. It left Kazakhs a minority in their own republic for decades.", "legacy_fit": "strong", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "kazakh", "title": "Cameron 2018, The Hungry Steppe", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/cornell-scholarship-online/book/15707/chapter-abstract/170492902" }, { "id": "russian_periphery", "title": "Breyfogle, Schrader & Sunderland 2007", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/Peopling-the-Russian-Periphery-Borderland-Colonization-in-Eurasian-History/Breyfogle-Schrader-Sunderland/p/book/9780415544238" } ], "rendered_case_id": "kazakh-steppe", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 82.823999605, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.823999605, "unknown_bound_high": 82.823999605 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 85.3283227641, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.3283227641, "unknown_bound_high": 85.3283227641 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 86.0113879791, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.0113879791, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0113879791 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 56.238335667, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.238335667, "unknown_bound_high": 56.238335667 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 77.7650975956, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7650975956, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7650975956 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 34.9645925087, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.9645925087, "unknown_bound_high": 34.9645925087 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-russian-far-east", "name": "Russian Far East", "start": 1858, "end": 1991, "date_label": "1858–20th century", "region": "Russia and Central Asia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Amur & Ussuri Cossacks", "Russian and Ukrainian peasant settlers" ], "victims": [ "Nanai (Nani)", "Udege", "Ulch", "Nivkh", "Orochi", "Negidal", "Evenki" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Russia", "China" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia", "China" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "russian-far-east", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Russian Far East, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Annexation from Qing China, Cossack and peasant settlement, Indigenous dispossession, anti-Chinese violence, Korean removal, and Soviet security deportations cannot be treated as one event.", "legacy_story": "The treaties of Aigun and Peking, 1858–60, handed Russia the Amur and Ussuri from a weakened Qing, and the Cossack hosts moved onto the river line. Subsidized steamship passage from Odesa filled it fast. By 1913 about 250,000 peasants had arrived, three-quarters of them Ukrainian, which gave the settlement belt its name, Zelenyi Klyn, the Green Wedge. The Nanai, Udege, Nivkh and Orochi became small minorities, and in 1937 the Soviet state deported 172,000 Koreans to Central Asia to finish reordering the coast.", "legacy_fit": "strong", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "russian_periphery", "title": "Breyfogle, Schrader & Sunderland 2007", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/Peopling-the-Russian-Periphery-Borderland-Colonization-in-Eurasian-History/Breyfogle-Schrader-Sunderland/p/book/9780415544238" }, { "id": "far_east_stephan", "title": "Stephan 1994, The Russian Far East", "url": "https://www.sup.org/books/history/russian-far-east" } ], "rendered_case_id": "russian-far-east", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.505532165, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.505532165, "unknown_bound_high": 80.505532165 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.6746703471, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.6746703471, "unknown_bound_high": 69.6746703471 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 80.8331220265, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.8331220265, "unknown_bound_high": 80.8331220265 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 57.4314244701, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.4314244701, "unknown_bound_high": 57.4314244701 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.7490325197, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8377125375, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.7279387181, "unknown_bound_high": 67.9566849716 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 79.0598693707, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.0598693707, "unknown_bound_high": 79.0598693707 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-sapmi", "name": "Sápmi", "start": 1600, "end": 2000, "date_label": "17th–20th centuries", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Swedish and Finnish agrarian settlers", "Norwegian farmers and fishers", "Russian/Soviet industrial settlers on Kola" ], "victims": [ "Sámi (Sámit / Sápmelaccaš)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Norway", "Sweden", "Finland", "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Sápmi", "Norway", "Sweden", "Finland", "Russia" ], "container_countries": [ "Sápmi", "Norway", "Sweden", "Finland", "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "sapmi", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Sápmi, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Four states used different settlement, taxation, schooling, mining, border-closure, and land policies over several centuries; a single cross-border case erases those differences.", "legacy_story": "Four states enclosed the Sámi north. Swedish colonization pushed in from the 1630s with silver mining at Nasafjäll, which conscripted Sámi to haul ore by reindeer, and a 1673 proclamation then invited farmers onto Sámi taxed lands. Norway's Norwegianization ran from 1851 to the 1980s, banning the language in schools, while Sweden's nomad-school policy kept reindeer-herding Sámi in separate, inferior classrooms. Åsa Össbo reads the mining, the hydropower dams and today's wind farms as one long industrial colonialism.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" }, { "id": "qc_sapmi_dispossession", "title": "Settler Colonial Studies, From Indigenous private property to full dispossession: the case of Sápmi", "url": "https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2049677X.2023.2207380" } ], "rendered_case_id": "sapmi", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 72.1994738538, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.1994738538, "unknown_bound_high": 72.1994738538 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 90.6917653512, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.6917653512, "unknown_bound_high": 90.6917653512 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.4496912134, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.4496912134, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4496912134 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 44.3723764568, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.3723764568, "unknown_bound_high": 44.3723764568 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 40.7164818902, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.7164818902, "unknown_bound_high": 40.7164818902 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 73.2719000416, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.2719000416, "unknown_bound_high": 73.2719000416 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-han-taiwan", "name": "Han settlement of Taiwan", "start": 1624, "end": 1895, "date_label": "17th–19th centuries", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Hoklo (southern Fujianese) migrants", "Hakka from Guangdong" ], "victims": [ "Plains (Pingpu) peoples such as Siraya and Babuza", "mountain nations such as Atayal, Paiwan and Bunun" ], "agent_countries": [ "China", "Taiwan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Taiwan" ], "container_countries": [ "Taiwan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "han-taiwan", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Han settlement of Taiwan, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Dutch recruitment, Zheng military settlement, Qing frontier expansion, and Japanese colonial land policy are not one continuous Han settlement event; Indigenous land loss must be periodized.", "legacy_story": "Han Taiwan grew from a few thousand to a few million in two centuries. Hoklo migrants from Fujian and Hakka from Guangdong crossed the strait under the Dutch, the Zheng regime and then the Qing, and a Qing count in 1811 recorded 1.9 million people, overwhelmingly Han. The plains Austronesian peoples, the Siraya, Babuza and others, lost their land through Qing leasing and mortgage law and were absorbed, while the mountain nations held out until Japanese campaigns after 1895.", "legacy_fit": "core", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "taiwan", "title": "Ye 2019", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Colonisation-and-Settlement-of-Taiwan-1684-1945-Land-Tenure-Law-and-Qing-and-Japanese-Policies/Ye/p/book/9780367587314" }, { "id": "taiwan_liu", "title": "Liu Ts’ui-jung 1998", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/sediments-of-time/6D0AB5F5F7E1F7B0C9E0C4B0C7A5E5E5" } ], "rendered_case_id": "han-taiwan", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 46.1428266783, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.1428266783, "unknown_bound_high": 46.1428266783 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 76.6994214139, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.6994214139, "unknown_bound_high": 76.6994214139 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 67.8957776618, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.8957776618, "unknown_bound_high": 67.8957776618 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 42.4224932125, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4224932125, "unknown_bound_high": 42.4224932125 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 55.4146119649, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.4146119649, "unknown_bound_high": 55.4146119649 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 80.9367473479, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.9367473479, "unknown_bound_high": 80.9367473479 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-dzungaria", "name": "Dzungaria", "start": 1755, "end": 1820, "date_label": "1755–1820", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Han & Hui farmers from Gansu-Shaanxi", "Manchu, Sibe & Chahar bannermen", "Taranchi Uyghurs" ], "victims": [ "Zünghars (Oirat / western Mongols)" ], "agent_countries": [ "China" ], "victim_countries": [ "China", "Kazakhstan", "Mongolia" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Kazakhstan", "Mongolia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "dzungaria", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The incoming population was deliberately mixed, not a Han-only movement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The destruction of the Dzungar polity and population, postwar repopulation by multiple groups, and later military-agricultural colonization are causally linked but distinct events.", "legacy_story": "The Qing did not just conquer the Zünghars. They erased them. In 1755–58 the Qianlong emperor's armies, aided by smallpox, destroyed the Oirat Mongol state of Dzungaria, and Peter Perdue and others estimate that 70–80% of the population died or fled, on the order of half a million people. Then the Qing repopulated the emptied land from 1759 with Han and Hui farmers, Manchu and Sibe bannermen, and Taranchi Uyghur cultivators. It was a deliberate colonization of a cleared frontier.", "legacy_fit": "strong", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "dzungar", "title": "Brophy 2023, “Qing Extermination of the Zünghars”", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108765480.013" }, { "id": "perdue", "title": "Perdue 2005, China Marches West", "url": "https://doi.org/10.4159/9780674042025" } ], "rendered_case_id": "dzungaria", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.9172551937, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.9172551937, "unknown_bound_high": 91.9172551937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.0004042369, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.0004042369, "unknown_bound_high": 69.0004042369 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 81.9105684971, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.9105684971, "unknown_bound_high": 81.9105684971 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 91.9206273087, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.9206273087, "unknown_bound_high": 91.9206273087 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 86.6248556175, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.6248556175, "unknown_bound_high": 86.6248556175 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 87.6222089363, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.6222089363, "unknown_bound_high": 87.6222089363 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-inner-mongolia-han", "name": "Han settlement of Inner Mongolia", "start": 1902, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1902–present", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Han Chinese farmers and, later, state-organized migrants" ], "victims": [ "Mongols (Öbür Mongghol, incl. Chahar, Ordos and Bargas)" ], "agent_countries": [ "China" ], "victim_countries": [ "China", "Mongolia" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Mongolia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "inner-mongolia-han", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Han settlement of Inner Mongolia, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Late-Qing cultivation policy, Republican-era migration, PRC state farms, collectivization, and post-1978 urban expansion have different institutions and local effects.", "legacy_story": "Inner Mongolia became a Han land through the plow. From about 1902 the late-Qing “New Policies” reversed the old ban and opened Mongol banner pasture to farming, pushing herders toward sedentarization and provoking the duguilang revolts. Warlords and settlers kept coming, and then the PRC drove large-scale in-migration from the 1950s through state farms and industry. Mongols, roughly a fifth of the region in 1949, fell to about 17–18% of some 24 million people, a minority in their own autonomous region.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "innermongolia_wang", "title": "Wang 2014 (CSSH)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0010417514000309" }, { "id": "innermongolia_bulag", "title": "Bulag 2002, The Mongols at China’s Edge", "url": "https://doi.org/10.5771/9781461644835" }, { "id": "innermongolia_mrg", "title": "Minority Rights Group, “Mongols”", "url": "https://minorityrights.org/communities/mongols/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "inner-mongolia-han", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.8803607608, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.8803607608, "unknown_bound_high": 79.8803607608 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 81.0255716969, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.0255716969, "unknown_bound_high": 81.0255716969 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.52934342, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.52934342, "unknown_bound_high": 83.52934342 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 40.9045705806, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.9045705806, "unknown_bound_high": 40.9045705806 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 45.8959876776, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.8959876776, "unknown_bound_high": 45.8959876776 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 65.690936805, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.690936805, "unknown_bound_high": 65.690936805 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-tibet-han-migration", "name": "Han in-migration in Tibetan areas", "start": 1950, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1950–present", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Han Chinese migrants (cadres, workers, traders) and state personnel" ], "victims": [ "Tibetans (Böpa)" ], "agent_countries": [ "China" ], "victim_countries": [ "China", "Tibet (cross-border)" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Tibet (cross-border)" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "tibet-han-migration", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Han in-migration in Tibetan areas, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The entry must distinguish voluntary and state-facilitated migration, military-administrative control, pastoralist relocation, boarding schools, and disputed claims of demographic replacement.", "legacy_story": "The People's Liberation Army entered eastern Tibet in 1950, and the Seventeen Point Agreement formalized Chinese sovereignty in 1951. Emily Yeh's Taming Tibet shows how state development remade Lhasa and drew Han traders and workers into its economy, accelerated by the Qinghai–Tibet railway in 2006. Han remain a minority in the Tibet Autonomous Region proper, and Andrew Fischer reads the 2020 census at about 12%, but they dominate its towns and are far more numerous in the Tibetan areas of Qinghai and Sichuan.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "tibet_yeh", "title": "Yeh 2013, Taming Tibet", "url": "https://doi.org/10.7591/9780801469787" }, { "id": "tibet_wangroche", "title": "Wang & Roche 2022 (Modern China)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/0097700421995135" }, { "id": "tibet_fischer", "title": "Fischer 2021 (N-IUSSP, 2020 census)", "url": "https://www.niussp.org/migration-and-foreigners/han-chinese-population-shares-in-tibet-early-insights-from-the-2020-census-of-china/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "tibet-han-migration", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.082944913, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.082944913, "unknown_bound_high": 83.082944913 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 77.474259105, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.474259105, "unknown_bound_high": 77.474259105 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 58.1760993474, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.1760993474, "unknown_bound_high": 58.1760993474 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 30.0084225065, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.0084225065, "unknown_bound_high": 30.0084225065 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.1874967985, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.1874967985, "unknown_bound_high": 52.1874967985 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 78.1520356242, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.1520356242, "unknown_bound_high": 78.1520356242 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-hokkaido", "name": "Hokkaidō", "start": 1869, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1869–present", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Wajin (ethnic Japanese) migrants, especially from Tōhoku", "farmer-soldier colonists" ], "victims": [ "Ainu" ], "agent_countries": [ "Japan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Japan" ], "container_countries": [ "Japan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "hokkaido", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Hokkaidō, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Meiji settler colonization, land survey and dispossession, assimilation, and twentieth-century development are presented as one open-ended process without separating policy shifts or Ainu regions.", "legacy_story": "In 1869 the Meiji state annexed Ezo, renamed it Hokkaidō, and set up a Colonization Commission that spent 20 million yen settling the island. From 1874 samurai-farmer militia colonists took Ainu land, and the population passed a million by 1901. The 1899 Former Aborigines Protection Act gave Ainu poorer farmland and forced Japanese schooling, and stood until 1997. Only in 2019 did Japan recognize the Ainu as an Indigenous people, and a survey counts about 13,000, widely thought an undercount.", "legacy_fit": "core", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "hokkaido", "title": "Grunow et al. 2019", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/14672715.2019.1665291" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "hokkaido", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.3718705219, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.3718705219, "unknown_bound_high": 80.3718705219 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 96.2459318536, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 96.2459318536, "unknown_bound_high": 96.2459318536 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 79.9137880941, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.9137880941, "unknown_bound_high": 79.9137880941 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 58.8509349922, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.8509349922, "unknown_bound_high": 58.8509349922 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 56.0602104355, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.0602104355, "unknown_bound_high": 56.0602104355 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 67.3107031289, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.3107031289, "unknown_bound_high": 67.3107031289 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-japanese-korea", "name": "Japanese Korea", "start": 1876, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1876–1945", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Japanese civilian settlers (merchants, officials and farmers)" ], "victims": [ "Koreans (dominated and dispossessed in place)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Japan" ], "victim_countries": [ "North Korea", "South Korea" ], "container_countries": [ "North Korea", "South Korea" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "japanese-korea", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Japanese Korea, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Japanese settlers reached Korea from the 1876 treaty ports, three decades before annexation, and some 170,000 were already there in 1910. Jun Uchida calls them the brokers of empire. Their number neared 700,000 by the 1940s, one of the century's largest colonial settler communities, expanding on the back of a 1910–18 cadastral survey and the Oriental Development Company's landholdings. In 1945 nearly all of them were repatriated, reversing the settlement order in a single year.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "korea_uchida", "title": "Uchida 2011, Brokers of Empire", "url": "https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674492028" }, { "id": "japanese_empire", "title": "Lu 2019, Japanese Settler Colonialism", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108687584" } ], "rendered_case_id": "japanese-korea", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 75.4135354623, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.4135354623, "unknown_bound_high": 75.4135354623 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 93.6404712459, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.6404712459, "unknown_bound_high": 93.6404712459 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.3831928042, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.3831928042, "unknown_bound_high": 50.3831928042 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 9.8598802487, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.8598802487, "unknown_bound_high": 9.8598802487 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.9464171557, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.9464171557, "unknown_bound_high": 42.9464171557 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 17.1647624632, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.1647624632, "unknown_bound_high": 17.1647624632 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-japanese-micronesia", "name": "Japanese Micronesia", "start": 1914, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1914–1945", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Japanese home-island migrants", "Okinawan farm and fishing families", "Korean labourers, many of them coerced" ], "victims": [ "CHamoru & Refaluwasch (Northern Marianas)", "Palauans", "Chuukese, Pohnpeians, Yapese, Kosraeans", "Marshallese" ], "agent_countries": [ "Japan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Palau", "Federated States of Micronesia", "Marshall Islands", "Northern Mariana Islands" ], "container_countries": [ "Palau", "Federated States of Micronesia", "Marshall Islands", "Northern Mariana Islands" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "japanese-micronesia", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Japanese Micronesia, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Japan seized Germany's Micronesian islands in 1914 and ran them as the Nan'yō. Sugar drew settlers by the tens of thousands, most from Okinawa: by 1937 Japanese outnumbered Islanders across the whole mandate, about 62,000 to 50,000, and Saipan's Garapan was nearly all Japanese. In Palau, incomers were 60% of the population by 1935. Japan's 1945 defeat repatriated almost all of them, and the settler order collapsed as fast as it had risen.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "micronesia", "title": "Peattie 1988, Nanʼyō", "url": "https://uhpress.hawaii.edu/9780824814809/" }, { "id": "micsem_japan", "title": "Hezel, “Micronesia and Japan”", "url": "https://micsem.org/talk/micronesia-and-japan/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "japanese-micronesia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 61.8910451418, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.8910451418, "unknown_bound_high": 61.8910451418 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 72.1582753101, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.1582753101, "unknown_bound_high": 72.1582753101 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.2265470348, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.2265470348, "unknown_bound_high": 68.2265470348 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 35.8361741337, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.8361741337, "unknown_bound_high": 35.8361741337 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 48.3236636643, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.3236636643, "unknown_bound_high": 48.3236636643 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 9.7692676538, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.7692676538, "unknown_bound_high": 9.7692676538 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-andaman-islands", "name": "Andaman Islands", "start": 1858, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1858–present", "region": "South and Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Convicts and their descendants", "Partition-era Bengali refugees", "mainland labourers and migrants" ], "victims": [ "Great Andamanese", "Onge", "Jarawa", "Sentinelese" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "India" ], "victim_countries": [ "India" ], "container_countries": [ "India" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "andaman-islands", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Andaman Islands, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "British penal colonization and post-independence Indian refugee and development settlement were distinct regimes affecting different islands and Indigenous peoples.", "legacy_story": "Britain founded the Port Blair penal colony in 1858 to hold rebels of 1857, and the settlement it seeded destroyed the islanders. The Great Andamanese collapsed from several thousand at contact to 625 by 1901 and an all-time low of 19 in 1961, wrecked by measles, influenza and syphilis. After 1947 India settled Partition refugees and mainland labourers, and some 400,000 people now vastly outnumber a few hundred Great Andamanese, Onge, Jarawa and Sentinelese, whose forests a trunk road still cuts through.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "andaman", "title": "Sen 2017, “Developing Terra Nullius”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/comparative-studies-in-society-and-history/article/developing-terra-nullius-colonialism-nationalism-and-indigeneity-in-the-andaman-islands/8F0B5F996A88F1DB8E8B5D7B54AD8E8F" }, { "id": "andaman_survival", "title": "Survival International, “The Jarawa”", "url": "https://www.survivalinternational.org/tribes/jarawa" } ], "rendered_case_id": "andaman-islands", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 78.4841930205, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.4841930205, "unknown_bound_high": 78.4841930205 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 76.8212770586, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.8212770586, "unknown_bound_high": 76.8212770586 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 87.0652465393, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.0652465393, "unknown_bound_high": 87.0652465393 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 72.6232436283, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.6232436283, "unknown_bound_high": 72.6232436283 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 81.3759938733, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.3759938733, "unknown_bound_high": 81.3759938733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 84.7639546301, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.7639546301, "unknown_bound_high": 84.7639546301 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-mindanao", "name": "Mindanao", "start": 1900, "end": 2026, "date_label": "20th century–present", "region": "South and Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Christian Filipino homesteaders from Luzon and the Visayas" ], "victims": [ "Moro peoples (Maguindanao, Maranao, Tausūg, Iranun)", "Lumad peoples (Manobo, T'boli, B'laan, Subanen)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Philippines", "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "Philippines" ], "container_countries": [ "Philippines" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "mindanao", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Mindanao, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "US colonial land policy, Commonwealth settlement agencies, postwar migration, logging and plantation concessions, and conflict displacement are distinct processes with different affected Moro and Lumad communities.", "legacy_story": "State-backed settlement turned a Muslim island into a Christian-majority one. American authorities opened agricultural colonies in Cotabato from 1913. The Commonwealth's National Land Settlement Administration followed in 1939, and Magsaysay's EDCOR resettled ex-rebels and soldiers from Luzon in the 1950s. Around 1.2 million migrants entered in 1948–60 alone. The Moro peoples fell from roughly three-quarters of Mindanao's population at 1900 to about a quarter by 1948, and the Lumad to a small minority, their customary land redefined as public.", "legacy_fit": "strong", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "mindanao", "title": "Suzuki 2023", "url": "https://doi.org/10.20495/tak.60.2_183" }, { "id": "mindanao_tigno", "title": "Tigno 2006", "url": "https://populationreview.com/files/204749pp23-47.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mindanao", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 64.4068071394, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.4068071394, "unknown_bound_high": 64.4068071394 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 90.917900617, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.917900617, "unknown_bound_high": 90.917900617 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.0602767477, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.0602767477, "unknown_bound_high": 83.0602767477 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 53.8555261092, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.8555261092, "unknown_bound_high": 53.8555261092 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.3615876761, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.3615876761, "unknown_bound_high": 42.3615876761 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 69.5181440872, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.5181440872, "unknown_bound_high": 69.5181440872 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-vietnam-central-highlands", "name": "Vietnam's Central Highlands", "start": 1954, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1954–present", "region": "South and Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Kinh (ethnic Vietnamese) migrants from the Red River Delta and lowlands" ], "victims": [ "Degar / Montagnard peoples such as Ê Đê (Rhade), Jarai, Bahnar, Kơho and Mnông" ], "agent_countries": [ "Vietnam" ], "victim_countries": [ "Vietnam" ], "container_countries": [ "Vietnam" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "vietnam-central-highlands", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Vietnam's Central Highlands, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "South Vietnamese resettlement, wartime displacement, post-1975 New Economic Zones, coffee expansion, and state-farm land seizure are not one uninterrupted event.", "legacy_story": "After the 1954 partition, Diem's government began resettling lowland Kinh, including northern Catholic refugees, in the highlands. By 1975 perhaps a million had moved in, and after reunification New Economic Zone and spontaneous migration brought up to three million more, while the 1990s coffee boom drove smallholders onto Indigenous land. The Degar or Montagnard peoples (Ê Đê, Jarai, Bahnar and others) are now perhaps a third of the region, and their 2001 land protests met a hard crackdown.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "vietnam", "title": "Hardy 2005, Red Hills", "url": "https://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg/publication/762" }, { "id": "vietnam_hrw", "title": "Human Rights Watch 2002 (Montagnards)", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/2002/04/23/repression-montagnards/conflicts-over-land-and-religion-vietnams-central-highlands" } ], "rendered_case_id": "vietnam-central-highlands", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.3373995173, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.3373995173, "unknown_bound_high": 79.3373995173 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 82.2913072247, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.2913072247, "unknown_bound_high": 82.2913072247 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 84.8977711154, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.8977711154, "unknown_bound_high": 84.8977711154 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 53.8555261092, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.8555261092, "unknown_bound_high": 53.8555261092 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.0030238721, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.0030238721, "unknown_bound_high": 52.0030238721 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 69.5181440872, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.5181440872, "unknown_bound_high": 69.5181440872 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-chittagong-hill-tracts", "name": "Chittagong Hill Tracts", "start": 1979, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1979–present", "region": "South and Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Bengali settlers from the plains districts of Bangladesh" ], "victims": [ "Jumma peoples such as Chakma, Marma, Tripura, Mru and Bawm" ], "agent_countries": [ "Bangladesh" ], "victim_countries": [ "Bangladesh", "Chittagong Hill Tracts" ], "container_countries": [ "Bangladesh", "Chittagong Hill Tracts" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "chittagong-hill-tracts", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Chittagong Hill Tracts, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Bangladesh moved its lowlanders uphill. A covert state program from 1979 to 1984 shifted more than 400,000 Bengali settlers into the Chittagong Hill Tracts with land grants and rations, and the Bengali share of the population jumped from 12% in 1974 to nearly half by 1991. The 1962 Kaptai Dam had already drowned 40% of the best farmland and displaced 100,000 people, mostly Chakma. Counter-insurgency against the Jumma peoples brought massacres through the 1980s and 90s, and the 1997 peace accord's land promises remain largely unmet.", "legacy_fit": "strong", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "cht", "title": "Tripura et al. 2023", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2023.2231424" }, { "id": "cht_commission", "title": "CHT Commission, “Life Is Not Ours”", "url": "https://iwgia.org/images/publications//Life_is_not_ours_UPDATE4.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "chittagong-hill-tracts", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 89.2275089271, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.2275089271, "unknown_bound_high": 89.2275089271 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 75.3126311677, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.3126311677, "unknown_bound_high": 75.3126311677 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 82.2959616495, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.2959616495, "unknown_bound_high": 82.2959616495 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 54.6474254712, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.6474254712, "unknown_bound_high": 54.6474254712 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 65.0560481609, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.0560481609, "unknown_bound_high": 65.0560481609 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 56.3818030991, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.3818030991, "unknown_bound_high": 56.3818030991 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-sri-lanka-irrigation", "name": "Sri Lankan irrigation settlements", "start": 1930, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1930s–present", "region": "South and Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Sinhalese peasant colonists from the south and centre, state-sponsored" ], "victims": [ "Sri Lankan Tamils of the northern/eastern dry zone", "Muslims of contested eastern districts" ], "agent_countries": [ "Sri Lanka" ], "victim_countries": [ "Sri Lanka" ], "container_countries": [ "Sri Lanka" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "sri-lanka-irrigation", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Sri Lankan irrigation settlements, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Gal Oya, Mahaweli, Weli Oya, and other schemes had different dates, sponsors, ethnic politics, and displacement footprints; one national label is not an event-level account.", "legacy_story": "Sri Lanka colonized its own dry zone. State-aided schemes from the 1935 Land Development Ordinance moved Sinhalese peasants into districts Tamils and Muslims claimed, redrawing the electoral map, and Patrick Peebles reads the whole program as a driver of the ethnic conflict. The sharpest case is Weli Oya, carved out of Tamil-majority Manal Aru in 1984 and militarized. Tamil residents got 48-hour eviction notices, and by 2012 the area's 18 villages were 99.7% Sinhalese. The war it fed brought massacres on both sides.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "sri_lanka", "title": "Kelegama 2025 (Weli Oya)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/20438206251349276" }, { "id": "sri_lanka_peebles", "title": "Peebles 1990 (J. Asian Studies)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.2307/2058432" } ], "rendered_case_id": "sri-lanka-irrigation", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.0794024008, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.0794024008, "unknown_bound_high": 79.0794024008 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.2625214825, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.2625214825, "unknown_bound_high": 69.2625214825 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 78.5572906814, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.5572906814, "unknown_bound_high": 78.5572906814 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 44.114279645, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.114279645, "unknown_bound_high": 44.114279645 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.9872720512, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.9872720512, "unknown_bound_high": 34.9872720512 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75.0367609194, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.0367609194, "unknown_bound_high": 75.0367609194 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-west-papua", "name": "West Papua", "start": 1963, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1963–present", "region": "South and Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Javanese and Madurese transmigrants", "Bugis, Makassarese and Butonese migrants" ], "victims": [ "Papuans (Melanesian peoples, incl. the Moi of Sorong)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Indonesia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Indonesia", "West Papua" ], "container_countries": [ "Indonesia", "West Papua" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "west-papua", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "West Papua, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Military occupation, formal transmigration, spontaneous migration, resource concessions, urban land seizure, and conflict displacement require separate dates and evidentiary claims.", "legacy_story": "Indonesia took West Papua's administration in 1963 and ratified it through the 1969 “Act of Free Choice,” a vote of 1,022 hand-picked electors. Non-Papuans were 4% of the population in 1971. By 2010, after decades of transmigration and spontaneous migration from Java and Sulawesi, settlers were a slight majority overall, and Jim Elmslie projected the Indigenous share falling below 30%. New transmigration plans floated in 2024 drew fresh Papuan protest. The highlands remain overwhelmingly Papuan. The coasts and towns do not.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "west_papua", "title": "Kadir & Wahid 2025", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2025.2497601" }, { "id": "west_papua_elmslie", "title": "Elmslie 2017 (Asia-Pacific Journal)", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/asia-pacific-journal/article/great-divide-west-papuan-demographics-revisited-settlers-dominate-coastal-regions-but-the-highlands-still-overwhelmingly-papuan/D5AC6320C588FD26C7E73A9ED1715334" } ], "rendered_case_id": "west-papua", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.7093752032, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.7093752032, "unknown_bound_high": 87.7093752032 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 80.5604707651, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.5604707651, "unknown_bound_high": 80.5604707651 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 77.9329592872, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.9329592872, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9329592872 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 47.7919127543, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.7919127543, "unknown_bound_high": 47.7919127543 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 45.250389207, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.250389207, "unknown_bound_high": 45.250389207 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 71.9214862146, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.9214862146, "unknown_bound_high": 71.9214862146 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-namibia", "name": "Namibia", "start": 1884, "end": 1990, "date_label": "1884–1990", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "German settlers and Schutztruppe veterans", "Afrikaner and other white South Africans" ], "victims": [ "Herero (Ovaherero)", "Nama", "Damara", "San" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany", "South Africa" ], "victim_countries": [ "Namibia" ], "container_countries": [ "Namibia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "namibia", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Namibia, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "German conquest, the Herero and Nama genocide, settler land allocation, and South African mandate/apartheid rule were distinct regimes; ending only at independence hides the changing machinery.", "legacy_story": "Germany declared a protectorate in 1884 and built its only true settler colony on the land it seized. When the Herero rose in 1904 and the Nama followed, General von Trotha issued an extermination order. By 1908 roughly 65,000 Herero, four in five, and at least 10,000 Nama were dead by shooting, thirst in the Omaheke, and the camps at Shark Island. South Africa took over in 1915 and extended apartheid until independence in 1990. Germany acknowledged the genocide only in 2021.", "legacy_fit": "core", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "gewald", "title": "Gewald 2003", "url": "https://www.ascleiden.nl/publications/herero-genocide-german-unity-settlers-soldiers-and-ideas" }, { "id": "namibia_ap", "title": "AP / PBS 2021", "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/germany-recognizes-colonial-killings-in-namibia-as-genocide" } ], "rendered_case_id": "namibia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 74.8882719288, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.8882719288, "unknown_bound_high": 74.8882719288 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 95.1994029273, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 95.1994029273, "unknown_bound_high": 95.1994029273 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 67.6435733578, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.6435733578, "unknown_bound_high": 67.6435733578 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 33.0261666621, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.0261666621, "unknown_bound_high": 33.0261666621 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 90.6879969367, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.6879969367, "unknown_bound_high": 90.6879969367 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 51.9332604972, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.9332604972, "unknown_bound_high": 51.9332604972 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-southern-rhodesia", "name": "Southern Rhodesia / Zimbabwe", "start": 1890, "end": 1980, "date_label": "1890–1980", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "British settlers", "white South Africans", "other European migrants" ], "victims": [ "Shona (Zezuru, Karanga, Manyika)", "Ndebele", "Tonga" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Zimbabwe" ], "container_countries": [ "Zimbabwe" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "southern-rhodesia", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Southern Rhodesia / Zimbabwe, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Cecil Rhodes's British South Africa Company sent a Pioneer Column into Mashonaland in 1890, and war finished the conquest, the Ndebele kingdom in 1893 and the Shona and Ndebele risings of 1896–97. The 1930 Land Apportionment Act handed roughly half the colony to about 48,000 whites, under 5% of the people. Ian Smith declared independence in 1965 to preserve minority rule, and the settler population peaked near 300,000 before the liberation war ended the settler state at Zimbabwe's independence in 1980.", "legacy_fit": "core", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "palmer_rhodesia", "title": "Palmer 1977", "url": "https://books.google.com/books/about/Land_and_Racial_Domination_in_Rhodesia.html?id=AvjsAAAAMAAJ" }, { "id": "mlambo", "title": "Mlambo 2014", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/history-of-zimbabwe/frontmatter/FBCD869B734B546288E384AC86BC2AC5" } ], "rendered_case_id": "southern-rhodesia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 57.1772206045, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.1772206045, "unknown_bound_high": 57.1772206045 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 93.6404712459, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.6404712459, "unknown_bound_high": 93.6404712459 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 58.6525536921, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.6525536921, "unknown_bound_high": 58.6525536921 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 19.1691661006, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.1691661006, "unknown_bound_high": 19.1691661006 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.5143351205, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.5143351205, "unknown_bound_high": 61.5143351205 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 29.3222027931, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.3222027931, "unknown_bound_high": 29.3222027931 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-kenya-highlands", "name": "Kenya Highlands", "start": 1902, "end": 1963, "date_label": "1902–1963", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "British settler farmers", "South African and other European migrants" ], "victims": [ "Kikuyu (Gĩkũyũ)", "Maasai", "Nandi and other Kalenjin", "Kamba" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Kenya" ], "container_countries": [ "Kenya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "kenya-highlands", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Kenya Highlands, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Britain reserved Kenya's best land for whites and called it the White Highlands. Crown Lands ordinances from 1902 let settlers take 999-year leases, and the 1939 Highlands Order fenced roughly 7.5 million acres off from Africans, policed by a board that vetted every sale. The Maasai were moved south by “agreement” in 1904 and 1911. Over 200,000 Kikuyu lived as squatter-labourers on settler farms, and their eviction and land hunger fed the Mau Mau uprising and the emergency of 1952–60.", "legacy_fit": "core", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "kanogo", "title": "Kanogo 1987", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/squatters-and-the-roots-of-mau-mau-190563/AA5B8EC10C05B1F97321D24C1E9526DF/listing" }, { "id": "coldham", "title": "Coldham 1979", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-african-law/article/colonial-policy-and-the-highlands-of-kenya-19341944/6C93BB0E690363DF467A51A907C1A299" } ], "rendered_case_id": "kenya-highlands", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 70.2180573435, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.2180573435, "unknown_bound_high": 70.2180573435 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 91.2880677856, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.2880677856, "unknown_bound_high": 91.2880677856 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 58.6525536921, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.6525536921, "unknown_bound_high": 58.6525536921 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.0976663813, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.0976663813, "unknown_bound_high": 26.0976663813 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 71.6785578783, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.6785578783, "unknown_bound_high": 71.6785578783 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 32.3856383817, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.3856383817, "unknown_bound_high": 32.3856383817 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-liberia", "name": "Liberia", "start": 1822, "end": 1980, "date_label": "1822–1980", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Free-born and freed African Americans (Americo-Liberians)", "recaptured Africans ('Congoes')" ], "victims": [ "Kpelle", "Bassa", "Grebo", "Kru", "Vai", "Gola and other Indigenous Liberian peoples" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States", "Liberia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Liberia" ], "container_countries": [ "Liberia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "liberia", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Liberia, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "A settler colony of freed slaves. The American Colonization Society planted its first settlers at Cape Mesurado in 1822, and by 1867 had sent more than 13,000 African American emigrants. The colony declared itself a republic in 1847 with a constitution written by and for the settler class. The Americo-Liberians, a few percent of the population, ruled the Indigenous majority through the True Whig Party from 1878 until Samuel Doe's 1980 coup ended their monopoly, a distinctive Black, non-metropolitan case of the same structure.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "liberia", "title": "Vaughan & Maddison 2025", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2025.2485741" }, { "id": "loc_acs", "title": "Library of Congress, “Colonization”", "url": "https://www.loc.gov/exhibits/african/afam002.html" } ], "rendered_case_id": "liberia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 43.9544904284, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.9544904284, "unknown_bound_high": 43.9544904284 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 74.3824293041, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.3824293041, "unknown_bound_high": 74.3824293041 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.2679047521, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.2679047521, "unknown_bound_high": 68.2679047521 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 12.601662855, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.601662855, "unknown_bound_high": 12.601662855 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 46.494084952, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.494084952, "unknown_bound_high": 46.494084952 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 34.0573350764, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.0573350764, "unknown_bound_high": 34.0573350764 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-argentina-frontiers", "name": "Argentina: Pampas & Patagonia", "start": 1867, "end": 1914, "date_label": "1867–1914", "region": "Latin America", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Argentine criollo settlers and military colonists", "Italian, Spanish and other European immigrants" ], "victims": [ "Mapuche", "Ranquel (Rankülche)", "Tehuelche (Aónikenk)", "Günün a küna" ], "agent_countries": [ "Argentina" ], "victim_countries": [ "Argentina", "Chile" ], "container_countries": [ "Argentina", "Chile" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "argentina-frontiers", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Buenos Aires stands for the state and the migration gateway. The Chaco frontier followed a distinct chronology not folded in here.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Argentina cleared its south by campaign. Law 215 of 1867 set the conquest of the Indigenous frontier as state policy, and from 1878 General Roca's Conquest of the Desert drove it home with breech-loading rifles, killing and capturing thousands of Mapuche, Ranquel and Tehuelche and interning prisoners on Martín García island. The last cacique, Sayhueque, surrendered in 1885. The conquered land, some 8.5 million hectares from one campaign's bonds, went to a few hundred owners and to the European immigrants pouring through Buenos Aires.", "legacy_fit": "core", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "argentina", "title": "Taylor 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2020.1845939" }, { "id": "argentina_ryan", "title": "Ryan 2023 (Oxford Encyc.)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199366439.013.1211" }, { "id": "argentina_greenwald", "title": "Greenwald 2022 (Yale)", "url": "https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/gsas_dissertations/475/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "argentina-frontiers", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.4789082022, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.4789082022, "unknown_bound_high": 79.4789082022 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 87.5376397906, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5376397906, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5376397906 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.6806443325, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.6806443325, "unknown_bound_high": 75.6806443325 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 58.9482888166, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.9482888166, "unknown_bound_high": 58.9482888166 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 80.5990848913, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.5990848913, "unknown_bound_high": 80.5990848913 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75.9347382383, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.9347382383, "unknown_bound_high": 75.9347382383 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-chile-araucania", "name": "Chile: Araucanía", "start": 1861, "end": 1910, "date_label": "1861–1883+", "region": "Latin America", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Chilean settlers from central Chile", "German, Swiss, Italian and Boer colonists" ], "victims": [ "Mapuche of Gülumapu (Nagche, Wenteche and Lafkenche)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Chile" ], "victim_countries": [ "Chile", "Argentina" ], "container_countries": [ "Chile", "Argentina" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "chile-araucania", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Chile: Araucanía, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "For two centuries Spain recognized Mapuche autonomy south of the Biobío, and Chile ended it by force. Colonel Saavedra's occupation of Araucanía, planned from 1861, advanced with forts and towns. The last general Mapuche uprising broke in 1881, and the re-founding of Villarrica in 1883 closed the conquest. The state then penned Mapuche communities into some 3,000 reducciones, about 500,000 hectares of their former country, and handed the rest to Chilean and European colonists, Germans and Swiss and Boers among them.", "legacy_fit": "core", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "chile", "title": "Sauer 2022 (Settler Colonial Studies)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2022.2028995" }, { "id": "latin_america", "title": "Taylor & Lublin 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2021.1999155" } ], "rendered_case_id": "chile-araucania", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 74.0290633814, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.0290633814, "unknown_bound_high": 74.0290633814 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 88.9087424438, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.9087424438, "unknown_bound_high": 88.9087424438 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 73.3812250771, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.3812250771, "unknown_bound_high": 73.3812250771 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 51.9786304287, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.9786304287, "unknown_bound_high": 51.9786304287 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 71.9267255427, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.9267255427, "unknown_bound_high": 71.9267255427 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 66.8827161856, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.8827161856, "unknown_bound_high": 66.8827161856 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-uruguay", "name": "Uruguay", "start": 1831, "end": 1914, "date_label": "1831–20th century", "region": "Latin America", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Spanish and Italian immigrants", "the Uruguayan criollo state" ], "victims": [ "Charrúa", "Minuán", "Guaraní" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain", "Portugal", "Uruguay" ], "victim_countries": [ "Uruguay", "Argentina", "Brazil" ], "container_countries": [ "Uruguay", "Argentina", "Brazil" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "uruguay", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "A qualified case. The displaced Charrúa were a small, mobile population, and Uruguay's settler majority came mostly from later European immigration rather than from replacing a large Indigenous society.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Salsipuedes campaign and subsequent removal, captivity, land privatization, and transborder Indigenous survival need their own bounded events; '1831–20th century' is not a usable chronology.", "legacy_story": "Uruguay built its European self-image on a massacre. On 11 April 1831, President Fructuoso Rivera's forces ambushed the Charrúa at Salsipuedes, killing about 40 and taking 300 prisoner, and four captives were shipped to Paris in 1833 and exhibited. Mass Spanish and Italian immigration then filled the country and let the state call itself a país sin indios, a land without Indians. It was never true, and Charrúa descendants organized from 1989 and now contest the story of their own extinction.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "verdesio_charrua", "title": "Verdesio 2021 (Charrúa re-emergence)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2020.1823752" }, { "id": "latin_america", "title": "Taylor & Lublin 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2021.1999155" } ], "rendered_case_id": "uruguay", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 57.0363482578, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.0363482578, "unknown_bound_high": 57.0363482578 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 77.0765172468, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.0765172468, "unknown_bound_high": 77.0765172468 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.6064174589, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.6064174589, "unknown_bound_high": 72.6064174589 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 76.517922632, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.517922632, "unknown_bound_high": 76.517922632 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 70.2987824298, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.2987824298, "unknown_bound_high": 70.2987824298 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 84.5686297752, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.5686297752, "unknown_bound_high": 84.5686297752 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-mennonite-chaco", "name": "Mennonite Chaco, Paraguay", "start": 1927, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1927–present", "region": "Latin America", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Mennonites from Canada (1927)", "Mennonites from the Soviet Union (1930, 1947)" ], "victims": [ "Enlhet Norte & Enxet Sur", "Nivaclé", "Ayoreo (incl. Totobiegosode)", "Guaraní Ñandeva" ], "agent_countries": [ "Paraguay", "Canada", "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Paraguay" ], "container_countries": [ "Paraguay" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "mennonite-chaco", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Mennonite Chaco, Paraguay, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "A settler colony with no metropole behind it. Paraguay's 1921 law promised Mennonites exemption from military service, oaths and state schooling, and in 1927 the first 1,743 pioneers from Canada founded Menno Colony in the Chaco, and refugees from the Soviet Union followed in 1930 and 1947. The colonies occupy Enlhet, Nivaclé and Ayoreo land, and their cooperatives now run the central Chaco's cattle-and-dairy economy while some Ayoreo-Totobiegosode still live in voluntary isolation in the shrinking forest.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "paraguay", "title": "Canova 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/jlca.12530" }, { "id": "latin_america", "title": "Taylor & Lublin 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2021.1999155" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mennonite-chaco", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 46.1017999025, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.1017999025, "unknown_bound_high": 46.1017999025 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 72.2392249155, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.2392249155, "unknown_bound_high": 72.2392249155 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 80.1861750029, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.1861750029, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1861750029 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 45.7497026784, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.7497026784, "unknown_bound_high": 45.7497026784 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.4698405789, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.4698405789, "unknown_bound_high": 58.4698405789 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 62.0957447861, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.0957447861, "unknown_bound_high": 62.0957447861 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-bolivian-lowlands", "name": "Bolivian eastern lowlands", "start": 1952, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1950s–present", "region": "Latin America", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Andean Quechua and Aymara colonists", "Mennonite and Okinawan colonies", "agribusiness migrants" ], "victims": [ "Guaraní", "Ayoreo", "Chiquitano (Monkoxi)", "Guarayo", "Yuracaré", "Mojeño" ], "agent_countries": [ "Bolivia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Bolivia" ], "container_countries": [ "Bolivia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "bolivian-lowlands", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Bolivian eastern lowlands, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Santa Cruz colonization, Mennonite settlement, cattle and soy frontiers, road building, and distinct Indigenous territorial conflicts cannot be represented by one national lowlands case.", "legacy_story": "Bolivia turned east after its 1952 revolution. The US-backed Plan Bohan had drawn the blueprint, and the 1953 agrarian reform and later governments opened colonization corridors in Santa Cruz and the Chapare, moving Andean Quechua and Aymara settlers, plus state-recruited Mennonite and Okinawan colonies, into the lowlands. Ben Nobbs-Thiessen traces how this remade Santa Cruz into an agro-industrial heartland, and the two colonization zones account for most of Bolivia's deforestation, at the expense of Guaraní, Ayoreo and Chiquitano land.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "nobbs_thiessen", "title": "Nobbs-Thiessen 2020", "url": "https://uncpress.org/book/9781469656953/landscape-of-migration/" }, { "id": "bolivia", "title": "Mendoza 2023", "url": "https://doi.org/10.52289/hej10.204" } ], "rendered_case_id": "bolivian-lowlands", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 61.6159370661, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.6159370661, "unknown_bound_high": 61.6159370661 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 86.4102630409, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.4102630409, "unknown_bound_high": 86.4102630409 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.2207862976, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.2207862976, "unknown_bound_high": 75.2207862976 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 50.070963577, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.070963577, "unknown_bound_high": 50.070963577 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 47.0716857491, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.0716857491, "unknown_bound_high": 47.0716857491 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 60.7237187474, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.7237187474, "unknown_bound_high": 60.7237187474 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-new-caledonia", "name": "New Caledonia", "start": 1853, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1853–present", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "French convicts and free settlers (Caldoches)", "Communard and Algerian deportees who stayed" ], "victims": [ "Kanak (Melanesian clans of Grande Terre and the Loyalty Islands)" ], "agent_countries": [ "France" ], "victim_countries": [ "New Caledonia" ], "container_countries": [ "New Caledonia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "new-caledonia", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "New Caledonia, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "France annexed New Caledonia in 1853 and settled it partly with convicts, some 22,000 transported to 1897, including 4,250 Communards. Land ceded to colonists rose from 1,000 hectares in 1860 to 230,000 by 1878, the year Grand Chief Ataï's revolt was crushed at the cost of a thousand Kanak lives. Governor Feillet then cut the Kanak reserves from 320,000 to 120,000 hectares. The Kanak, reduced from perhaps 60,000 to 27,000 by 1900, are now about 40% of the population, and three independence referendums have failed.", "legacy_fit": "core", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" }, { "id": "qc_new_caledonia_land", "title": "International Journal of the Commons, Kanak land dispossession and contemporary commons in New Caledonia", "url": "https://thecommonsjournal.org/articles/10.5334/ijc.1195" } ], "rendered_case_id": "new-caledonia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 78.1685632339, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.1685632339, "unknown_bound_high": 78.1685632339 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 92.3408672696, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.3408672696, "unknown_bound_high": 92.3408672696 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 60.0608298221, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.0608298221, "unknown_bound_high": 60.0608298221 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 44.0104304101, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.0104304101, "unknown_bound_high": 44.0104304101 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 84.0654872193, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.0654872193, "unknown_bound_high": 84.0654872193 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.6528399568, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.6528399568, "unknown_bound_high": 59.6528399568 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-hawaii", "name": "Hawaiʻi", "start": 1820, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1820–present", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "New England missionary families and descendants", "the Euro-American planter and military elite", "later U.S. settlers" ], "victims": [ "Kānaka Maoli (Native Hawaiians)" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "hawaii", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Hawaiʻi, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Missionary-commercial settlement, the Māhele land regime, overthrow and annexation, plantation labor importation, military land taking, and post-statehood development are distinct processes.", "legacy_story": "New England missionaries arrived in 1820 and their families became Hawaiʻi's landholding, sugar-growing elite. The 1848 Māhele broke up the traditional land system and let foreigners buy in, and many makaʻāinana ended up with nothing. In 1893 a committee of planters overthrew Queen Liliʻuokalani with U.S. Marines behind them. A petition of 21,000 Kānaka Maoli, more than half those counted, defeated the annexation treaty, so Congress annexed the islands by simple resolution in 1898. The Native population had fallen from perhaps 300,000 at contact to about 40,000.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "hawaii_schulz", "title": "Schulz 2014, “Birthing Empire”", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/dh/dht108" }, { "id": "fujikane_hawaii", "title": "Fujikane & Okamura 2008", "url": "https://uhpress.hawaii.edu/title/asian-settler-colonialism-from-local-governance-to-the-habits-of-everyday-life-in-hawaii/" }, { "id": "nara_petition", "title": "US National Archives, 1897 anti-annexation petition", "url": "https://www.archives.gov/education/lessons/hawaii-petition" }, { "id": "oha_population", "title": "OHA, Hawaiian population 1778–1896", "url": "https://www.oha.org/wp-content/uploads/Estimated-Population-of-the-Hawaiian-Islands-1778-1896.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "hawaii", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 46.1428266783, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.1428266783, "unknown_bound_high": 46.1428266783 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 88.2621542189, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.2621542189, "unknown_bound_high": 88.2621542189 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 77.5907809284, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.5907809284, "unknown_bound_high": 77.5907809284 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 64.1058571385, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.1058571385, "unknown_bound_high": 64.1058571385 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 77.3128525541, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.3128525541, "unknown_bound_high": 77.3128525541 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 68.0844225047, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.0844225047, "unknown_bound_high": 68.0844225047 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-guam", "name": "Guam / Guåhan", "start": 1668, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1668–present", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Spanish garrison and missionaries (1668–1898)", "U.S. military and federal personnel", "post-war civilian migrants" ], "victims": [ "CHamoru people of Guåhan" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain", "United States", "Japan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Guam/Guåhan" ], "container_countries": [ "Guam/Guåhan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "guam", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Guam / Guåhan, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Spanish reduccion and depopulation, US naval rule and land acquisition, Japanese wartime occupation, and postwar military expansion are separate displacement regimes.", "legacy_story": "Guam was colonized twice. Spain's conquest from 1668 imposed the reducción, and war and disease cut the CHamoru to about 3,500 by 1710. The United States took the island in 1898 and layered a second colonization over the first. After retaking Guam in 1944, the U.S. military seized 52,000 acres and at its peak held 63% of Guåhan, condemning most of it in 1948 at pre-war prices. Roughly 28% remains under military control, and the CHamoru are a minority on their own island, in an unincorporated territory whose residents still cannot vote for president.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "guam", "title": "Delgado 2019, “Remade: Sovereign”", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/1750698019894690" }, { "id": "guampedia_land", "title": "Guampedia, “Land Ownership on Guam”", "url": "https://www.guampedia.com/land-ownership-on-guam/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "guam", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.4244305762, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.4244305762, "unknown_bound_high": 86.4244305762 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 83.9769438683, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.9769438683, "unknown_bound_high": 83.9769438683 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.2265470348, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.2265470348, "unknown_bound_high": 68.2265470348 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 47.3489625053, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.3489625053, "unknown_bound_high": 47.3489625053 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 84.0654872193, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.0654872193, "unknown_bound_high": 84.0654872193 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75.1854684273, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.1854684273, "unknown_bound_high": 75.1854684273 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-rapa-nui", "name": "Rapa Nui", "start": 1888, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1888–present", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "European ranchers (Williamson-Balfour Company)", "the Chilean state, navy and mainland migrants" ], "victims": [ "Rapanui" ], "agent_countries": [ "Chile" ], "victim_countries": [ "Rapa Nui" ], "container_countries": [ "Rapa Nui", "Chile" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "rapa-nui", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "The 1862–63 slave raids and first ranching predate the 1888 annexation that opens this record.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Rapa Nui nearly disappeared before Chile ever raised its flag. Peruvian slavers seized over 1,400 people in 1862–63, a third to a half of the island, and the smallpox the few survivors carried home killed roughly a thousand more, dropping the population to about 100. Chile annexed the island in 1888, then leased it to a Scottish-Chilean sheep company that penned the Rapanui behind a wall at Hanga Roa until the 1960s. Only the 1966 Ley Pascua gave them citizenship and the run of their own island.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "rapa_nui", "title": "Young 2020 (Rapa Nui)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2020.1823751" }, { "id": "ebsco_rapanui", "title": "“Slave Traders and Easter Island” (EBSCO)", "url": "https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/history/slave-traders-and-easter-island" } ], "rendered_case_id": "rapa-nui", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 61.1682116001, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.1682116001, "unknown_bound_high": 61.1682116001 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 65.5742970112, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.5742970112, "unknown_bound_high": 65.5742970112 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 57.0986528768, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.0986528768, "unknown_bound_high": 57.0986528768 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 17.2933287056, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.2933287056, "unknown_bound_high": 17.2933287056 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 44.435354818, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.435354818, "unknown_bound_high": 44.435354818 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 72.5966578726, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.5966578726, "unknown_bound_high": 72.5966578726 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-vanuatu", "name": "Vanuatu / New Hebrides", "start": 1860, "end": 1980, "date_label": "1860s–1980", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "French planters and land companies", "British and Australian planters", "condominium officials" ], "victims": [ "ni-Vanuatu (Indigenous Melanesian peoples)" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "France" ], "victim_countries": [ "Vanuatu" ], "container_countries": [ "Vanuatu" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "vanuatu", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Vanuatu / New Hebrides, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "The New Hebrides were worked over twice: labour taken out, planters moved in. Between 1863 and 1904, blackbirding carried more than 60,000 South Sea Islanders to Queensland's plantations, many of them ni-Vanuatu. French and British planters then alienated so much land that by the mid-twentieth century over a third of the islands was foreign-owned, though the ni-Vanuatu stayed the majority. At independence in 1980, the new constitution reversed a century of it in one line: all land belongs to the indigenous custom owners.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "vanuatu", "title": "Bratrud 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1002/ocea.5305" }, { "id": "britannica_vanuatu", "title": "Britannica, “Vanuatu: History”", "url": "https://www.britannica.com/place/Vanuatu/History" }, { "id": "nma_blackbirding", "title": "Nat. Museum of Australia, “Islander labourers”", "url": "https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/islander-labourers" } ], "rendered_case_id": "vanuatu", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 48.9949042684, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.9949042684, "unknown_bound_high": 48.9949042684 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.1149180356, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.1149180356, "unknown_bound_high": 69.1149180356 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 55.7288030424, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.7288030424, "unknown_bound_high": 55.7288030424 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.7591245939, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.7591245939, "unknown_bound_high": 31.7591245939 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 72.4905922884, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.4905922884, "unknown_bound_high": 72.4905922884 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 24.5549442488, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.5549442488, "unknown_bound_high": 24.5549442488 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-banaba-ocean-island", "name": "Banaba (Ocean Island)", "start": 1900, "end": 1979, "date_label": "1900–1979", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "conquest without substantial settlement", "agents": [ "Imported mine labourers (Chinese and Pacific Islander) under the phosphate regime" ], "victims": [ "Banabans (te aomata ni Banaba), forcibly resettled to Rabi, Fiji in 1945" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Banaba", "Kiribati", "Fiji" ], "container_countries": [ "Banaba", "Kiribati", "Fiji" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly classified", "atlas_case_ids": "banaba-ocean-island", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Banaba (Ocean Island), as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Mining-induced removal of Banabans to Rabi was not a settler colony, but calling it excluded erases a severe, land-destroying displacement; it belongs in the contextual layer.", "legacy_story": "An island eaten for fertilizer. Britain annexed Banaba in 1900, the year phosphate was found, and the British Phosphate Commissioners, owned by Britain, Australia and New Zealand, strip-mined about 90% of its surface, shipping more than 20 million tonnes to Antipodean farms. In December 1945 the surviving Banabans were moved 2,000 km to Rabi Island in Fiji, bought with money from their own phosphate trust. Katerina Teaiwa calls it the literal consumption of a homeland, and the deposits ran out in 1979, as Kiribati became independent.", "legacy_fit": "excluded", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "teaiwa_banaba", "title": "Teaiwa 2015, Consuming Ocean Island", "url": "https://doi.org/10.2979/6767.0" }, { "id": "edwards_banaba", "title": "Edwards 2013 (Banaban resettlement)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/03086534.2013.814252" } ], "rendered_case_id": "banaba-ocean-island", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.4633058339, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.4633058339, "unknown_bound_high": 86.4633058339 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.3620391795, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.3620391795, "unknown_bound_high": 69.3620391795 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 48.4206930635, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.4206930635, "unknown_bound_high": 48.4206930635 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 92.2816243439, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.2816243439, "unknown_bound_high": 92.2816243439 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 39.2083507071, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.2083507071, "unknown_bound_high": 39.2083507071 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 42.1957252993, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.1957252993, "unknown_bound_high": 42.1957252993 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-posen-west-prussia", "name": "Posen & West Prussia", "start": 1886, "end": 1918, "date_label": "1886–1918", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "German peasant colonist families recruited by the Settlement Commission" ], "victims": [ "Poles (Polacy)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany" ], "victim_countries": [ "Poland" ], "container_countries": [ "Germany", "Poland" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "posen-west-prussia", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Posen & West Prussia, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Imperial Germany tried to colonize its own Polish provinces and mostly failed. Bismarck's 1886 law created a Royal Settlement Commission with 100 million marks to buy Polish land for German farmers, and funding eventually topped 950 million marks. But of 438,000 hectares it acquired, only a quarter came from Polish owners, most bought from Germans, and Polish land banks out-competed it. By 1918 it had settled about 22,000 German families, far short of its aim. Its most durable product was the 1908 law letting the state expropriate Polish estates outright.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" }, { "id": "blanke_poland", "title": "Blanke 1981, Prussian Poland in the German Empire", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Blanke+Prussian+Poland+in+the+German+Empire" } ], "rendered_case_id": "posen-west-prussia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.465308659, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.465308659, "unknown_bound_high": 81.465308659 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 83.1575477633, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.1575477633, "unknown_bound_high": 83.1575477633 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.1212248228, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.1212248228, "unknown_bound_high": 72.1212248228 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 17.6871021247, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.6871021247, "unknown_bound_high": 17.6871021247 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 16.039960267, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.039960267, "unknown_bound_high": 16.039960267 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 22.3423835725, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.3423835725, "unknown_bound_high": 22.3423835725 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-generalplan-ost", "name": "Generalplan Ost", "start": 1941, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1941–1945", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Reich Germans (planned)", "ethnic-German Volksdeutsche resettlers (at Zamość)" ], "victims": [ "Poles", "Ukrainians", "Belarusians", "Russians", "Balts", "Jews (murdered in the Holocaust the plan presupposed)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany" ], "victim_countries": [ "Poland", "Czechia", "Slovakia", "Belarus", "Ukraine", "Russia", "Lithuania", "Latvia", "Estonia", "Moldova" ], "container_countries": [ "Germany", "Poland", "Czechia", "Slovakia", "Belarus", "Ukraine", "Russia", "Lithuania", "Latvia", "Estonia", "Moldova" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "generalplan-ost", "recommendation": "attempted", "confidence": "high", "summary": "A genocidal settler-colonial plan with partial implementation, not a completed settler society.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The attempted plan must be separated from the actually implemented expulsions, deportations, Germanization, mass murder, and settlement experiments under Nazi occupation.", "legacy_story": "The most murderous settlement plan ever drafted, and only partly carried out. Under Himmler, the agronomist Konrad Meyer's office designed Generalplan Ost to expel some 31 million people, far more in later versions, beyond the Urals and settle Germans in their place across Poland, Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics. Implementation reached the Zamość region, where from November 1942 about 100,000 Poles, including 30,000 children, were driven from 297 villages to make room for ethnic-German settlers before the war turned.", "legacy_fit": "attempted", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" }, { "id": "qc_generalplan_dhm", "title": "German Historical Museum, Generalplan Ost", "url": "https://www.dhm.de/lemo/kapitel/der-zweite-weltkrieg/voelkermord/generalplan-ost" } ], "rendered_case_id": "generalplan-ost", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.0469607786, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 96.0469607786, "unknown_bound_high": 96.0469607786 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 70.959828463, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.959828463, "unknown_bound_high": 70.959828463 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 58.0382008742, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.0382008742, "unknown_bound_high": 58.0382008742 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.2157816351, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.2157816351, "unknown_bound_high": 60.2157816351 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 88.4447938764, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.4447938764, "unknown_bound_high": 88.4447938764 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-french-algeria", "name": "French Algeria", "start": 1830, "end": 1962, "date_label": "1830–1962", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "European settlers (pieds-noirs) of French, Spanish, Italian and Maltese origin" ], "victims": [ "Muslim Algerians (Arab and Amazigh communities)" ], "agent_countries": [ "France" ], "victim_countries": [ "Algeria" ], "container_countries": [ "Algeria" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "french-algeria", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "French Algeria, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "France invaded in 1830 and stayed 132 years, seizing land and political power while remaining a tenth of the population. The conquest itself was catastrophic, and Algeria's Muslim population fell by perhaps a third between 1830 and the 1870s through war, dispossession and famine. Europeans, the pieds-noirs, numbered about 984,000 by 1954, holding some 2.7 million hectares of the best farmland. When independence came in 1962, nearly the whole settler community left, around 650,000 in that year alone.", "legacy_fit": "core", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "britannica_algeria", "title": "Britannica, “Algeria: Colonial rule”", "url": "https://www.britannica.com/place/Algeria/Colonial-rule" }, { "id": "algeria_moumen", "title": "Moumen 2010 (pied-noir departure)", "url": "https://www.cairn.info/revue-materiaux-pour-l-histoire-de-notre-temps-2010-3-page-60.htm" }, { "id": "mena", "title": "Veracini 2022 (MERIP)", "url": "https://www.merip.org/2022/05/settler-colonialism-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa-a-protracted-history/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "french-algeria", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 70.2180573435, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.2180573435, "unknown_bound_high": 70.2180573435 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 93.6404712459, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.6404712459, "unknown_bound_high": 93.6404712459 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 65.6063369827, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.6063369827, "unknown_bound_high": 65.6063369827 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 23.1231043196, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.1231043196, "unknown_bound_high": 23.1231043196 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 81.1766856884, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.1766856884, "unknown_bound_high": 81.1766856884 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 22.8688477226, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.8688477226, "unknown_bound_high": 22.8688477226 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-italian-libya", "name": "Italian Libya", "start": 1911, "end": 1943, "date_label": "1911–1943", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Italian colonists (the 1938 “Ventimila” and after)" ], "victims": [ "Cyrenaican Arab-Bedouin communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "Italy" ], "victim_countries": [ "Libya" ], "container_countries": [ "Libya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "italian-libya", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "A qualified case. The demographic colonization was large but brief, cut off by the 1943 Allied conquest before it settled into a permanent society.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Initial conquest, Cyrenaican camp deportations and mass death, Fascist demographic colonization, and wartime collapse should not be collapsed into one settlement phase.", "legacy_story": "Italy's settlement of Libya came after an atrocity. To break Cyrenaican resistance from 1929 to 1934, Badoglio and Graziani deported the population to sixteen concentration camps. Ali Abdullatif Ahmida documents more than 60,000 deaths, and Omar al-Mukhtar was hanged before a crowd in 1931. Only then did the Fascist “demographic colonization” begin, the Ventimila, 20,000 settlers shipped in one 1938 convoy into purpose-built villages, some 110,000 Italians by 1940. The Allied conquest of 1943 ended it.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "ahmida_libya", "title": "Ahmida 2020, Genocide in Libya", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/Genocide-in-Libya-Shar-a-Hidden-Colonial-History/Ahmida/p/book/9780367468897" }, { "id": "libya", "title": "Ballinger 2016, “Colonial Twilight”", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/0022009415606795" }, { "id": "mena", "title": "Veracini 2022 (MERIP)", "url": "https://www.merip.org/2022/05/settler-colonialism-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa-a-protracted-history/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "italian-libya", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 89.3106672793, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.3106672793, "unknown_bound_high": 89.3106672793 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 67.0982272685, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.0982272685, "unknown_bound_high": 67.0982272685 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.092022407, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.092022407, "unknown_bound_high": 68.092022407 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 45.3401636062, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.3401636062, "unknown_bound_high": 45.3401636062 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 82.9358549562, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.9358549562, "unknown_bound_high": 82.9358549562 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 14.7614203358, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.7614203358, "unknown_bound_high": 14.7614203358 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-western-sahara", "name": "Western Sahara", "start": 1975, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1975–present", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Moroccan settlers" ], "victims": [ "Sahrawis" ], "agent_countries": [ "Morocco" ], "victim_countries": [ "Western Sahara", "Morocco", "Algeria", "Mauritania" ], "container_countries": [ "Western Sahara", "Morocco", "Algeria", "Mauritania" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "western-sahara", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "The markers fall west of the berm, in the Moroccan-controlled zone.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The 1975 invasion and refugee flight, wartime wall and mine displacement, subsidized Moroccan settlement, and continuing resource and housing policy require separate representation.", "legacy_story": "When Spain withdrew in 1975, Morocco moved in. King Hassan II's Green March sent some 350,000 civilians across the border, and the territory was partitioned. Within months tens of thousands of Sahrawis had fled to refugee camps near Tindouf in Algeria, whose population is disputed, with UNHCR planning figures near 90,000 and Polisario counts far higher. Morocco later presented the UN with lists of 120,000 settlers it had moved in since 1975. The UN still lists Western Sahara as a non-self-governing territory with no administering power, and M. Padrón Hernández argues it should be read as a settler colony.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "western_sahara", "title": "Padrón Hernández 2025", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2025.2456386" }, { "id": "mrg_sahrawis", "title": "Minority Rights Group, “Sahrawis”", "url": "https://minorityrights.org/communities/saharawis/" }, { "id": "un_western_sahara", "title": "United Nations, Western Sahara (NSGT)", "url": "https://www.un.org/dppa/decolonization/en/node/703" } ], "rendered_case_id": "western-sahara", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 89.3106672793, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.3106672793, "unknown_bound_high": 89.3106672793 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 78.7085795871, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.7085795871, "unknown_bound_high": 78.7085795871 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 76.5999782649, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.5999782649, "unknown_bound_high": 76.5999782649 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 66.1946040388, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.1946040388, "unknown_bound_high": 66.1946040388 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.2784450991, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.2784450991, "unknown_bound_high": 59.2784450991 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 70.7565408148, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.7565408148, "unknown_bound_high": 70.7565408148 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-northern-cyprus", "name": "Northern Cyprus", "start": 1975, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1974–present", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Mainland Turkish settlers" ], "victims": [ "Greek Cypriots (displaced south)", "Turkish Cypriots (moved north)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Turkey" ], "victim_countries": [ "Cyprus" ], "container_countries": [ "Cyprus", "Turkey" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "northern-cyprus", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Northern Cyprus, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Turkey's 1974 invasion split the island and set two populations moving. About 160,000 to 180,000 Greek Cypriots fled south and 45,000 to 60,000 Turkish Cypriots north. Then came organized settlement. A 1975 labour protocol aimed to bring some 30,000 mainland Turks to farm the emptied north, and heavy settlement continued to 1977. The eventual settler total is fiercely disputed. The 2011 census counted 295,000 residents of every kind, Turkish Cypriots and the locally born children of settlers among them, and estimates of actual mainland settlers range widely, which is why the numbers, intent and the label all remain contested.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "northern_cyprus", "title": "Jensehaugen 2016", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2016.1196031" }, { "id": "moudouros_cyprus", "title": "Moudouros 2025", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1186/s41257-025-00137-7" } ], "rendered_case_id": "northern-cyprus", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.3448357453, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.3448357453, "unknown_bound_high": 80.3448357453 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 86.830716, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.830716, "unknown_bound_high": 86.830716 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 73.6884065398, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.6884065398, "unknown_bound_high": 73.6884065398 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 77.5734652049, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.5734652049, "unknown_bound_high": 77.5734652049 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.5216481594, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.5216481594, "unknown_bound_high": 61.5216481594 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 70.5244550405, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.5244550405, "unknown_bound_high": 70.5244550405 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-iraqi-kurdistan-kirkuk", "name": "Iraqi Kurdistan & Kirkuk", "start": 1963, "end": 2003, "date_label": "1960s–2003", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Arab families relocated from central and southern Iraq with state land and housing" ], "victims": [ "Kurds", "Turkmen", "Assyrians" ], "agent_countries": [ "Iraq" ], "victim_countries": [ "Iraq", "Kurdistan (cross-border)" ], "container_countries": [ "Iraq", "Kurdistan (cross-border)" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "iraqi-kurdistan-kirkuk", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Iraqi Kurdistan & Kirkuk, as represented in the current atlas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Baʼathist Iraq re-engineered its north by Arabization. From the mid-1970s some 250,000 Kurds and other non-Arabs were expelled from a wide belt of the north, their land and homes handed to Arab families moved up from the centre and south. The 1988 Anfal campaign under Ali Hassan al-Majid reached genocidal scale, and Human Rights Watch documents the disappearance of about 100,000 Kurds, with the chemical attack on Halabja killing roughly 5,000 in a day. The expulsions from Kirkuk continued until the regime fell in 2003.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "iraq", "title": "Salih 2022 (State Crime Journal)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.13169/statecrime.11.2.0188" }, { "id": "hrw_iraq", "title": "Human Rights Watch 2004 (N. Iraq)", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/2004/08/02/claims-conflict/reversing-ethnic-cleansing-northern-iraq" } ], "rendered_case_id": "iraqi-kurdistan-kirkuk", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.8390807881, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.8390807881, "unknown_bound_high": 91.8390807881 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 82.9900818974, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.9900818974, "unknown_bound_high": 82.9900818974 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.4482480677, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.4482480677, "unknown_bound_high": 69.4482480677 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 62.1878033511, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.1878033511, "unknown_bound_high": 62.1878033511 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.7357444417, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.7357444417, "unknown_bound_high": 75.7357444417 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 57.1285267285, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.1285267285, "unknown_bound_high": 57.1285267285 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-syrian-arab-belt", "name": "Syrian Arab Belt", "start": 1973, "end": 1976, "date_label": "1973–1976", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "~4,000 Arab families displaced by the Tabqa Dam, settled 1975 in 41 model farms" ], "victims": [ "Kurds of al-Hasakah / Jazira" ], "agent_countries": [ "Syria" ], "victim_countries": [ "Syria", "Kurdistan (cross-border)" ], "container_countries": [ "Syria", "Kurdistan (cross-border)" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "syrian-arab-belt", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Planning began in the 1960s. Implementation ran 1973–75 and was suspended in 1976, leaving the villages in place.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Syria planned an Arab cordon along its Kurdish north. In 1962 a special census had stripped some 120,000 Jazira Kurds of citizenship, and the 1965 “Arab Belt” scheme then envisaged an Arabized strip 15 km deep and 280 km long on the Turkish border. In 1975 the state settled about 4,000 Arab families, farmers displaced by the Tabqa Dam, in 41 model villages built on land taken from Kurds, many of them the very people denaturalized in 1962. Assad suspended the plan in 1976 but never dismantled the villages.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "syria", "title": "Türk & Jongerden 2024 (Rojava)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2024.2374521" }, { "id": "hrw_syria", "title": "Human Rights Watch 2009 (Syria)", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/2009/11/26/group-denial/repression-kurdish-political-and-cultural-rights-syria" } ], "rendered_case_id": "syrian-arab-belt", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.4456687025, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 94.4456687025, "unknown_bound_high": 94.4456687025 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 71.2224625836, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.2224625836, "unknown_bound_high": 71.2224625836 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 70.5268680354, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.5268680354, "unknown_bound_high": 70.5268680354 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 44.1514085527, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.1514085527, "unknown_bound_high": 44.1514085527 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 22.2919566679, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.2919566679, "unknown_bound_high": 22.2919566679 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 49.5475634918, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.5475634918, "unknown_bound_high": 49.5475634918 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-jomon-yayoi", "name": "Yayoi settlement of Japan", "start": -900, "end": 700, "date_label": "c. 900 BCE–700 CE", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Yayoi wet-rice farmers from the Korean peninsula", "later Kofun-era continental migrants" ], "victims": [ "Jomon hunter-gatherers" ], "agent_countries": [ "South Korea", "China", "Japan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Japan" ], "container_countries": [ "Japan", "South Korea", "China" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "jomon-yayoi", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case read from ancient DNA, and a strong non-European case of farming-driven population turnover.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Japan's islands were held for millennia by the Jomon, hunter-gatherers with their own pottery and a deep genetic signature. From around 900 BCE, wet-rice farmers known as the Yayoi crossed from the southern Korean peninsula into Kyushu and spread northeast. Cooke and colleagues read the arrival as a massive influx that absorbed rather than erased the Jomon, followed by a further continental wave in the Kofun period. Jomon ancestry survives in modern Japanese at only about ten to fifteen percent, so the cumulative turnover was large even where each step was admixture.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "jomon_cooke", "title": "Cooke et al. 2021 (Science Advances)", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abh2419" }, { "id": "jomon_kanzawa", "title": "Kanzawa-Kiriyama et al. 2017 (J. Human Genetics)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/jhg2016110" } ], "rendered_case_id": "jomon-yayoi", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 13.0226319799, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.0317779551, "unknown_bound_high": 19.6404858288 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 82.7504659392, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8921511443, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.8259228757, "unknown_bound_high": 84.6108084497 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 36.1390644154, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7495305509, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 27.0873328621, "unknown_bound_high": 52.1342777672 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.4816568979, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.4985832995, "unknown_bound_high": 80.8734974809 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-anglo-saxon-britain", "name": "Anglo-Saxon settlement of Britain", "start": 400, "end": 600, "date_label": "c. 400–600 CE", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Angles, Saxons, Jutes and Frisians from the North Sea coast" ], "victims": [ "Romano-British population of eastern and southern Britain" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany", "Denmark", "Netherlands" ], "victim_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Germany", "Denmark", "Netherlands" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "anglo-saxon-britain", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "A proto-historic case, the same migration-or-elite-transfer question the atlas raises for the Athabaskan case.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "As Roman Britain fell apart, people from the North Sea coast, Jutland, Lower Saxony and Frisia, crossed into its eastern lowlands. The old question was whether a few warlords imposed a language on the Romano-British or whether whole communities moved in. Ancient DNA has tilted the answer toward migration. Gretzinger and colleagues find up to three quarters of the ancestry in eastern England came from the continental North Sea, though it varies sharply from place to place and mixes with the resident population. English begins here, in that settlement.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "anglosaxon_gretzinger", "title": "Gretzinger et al. 2022 (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05247-2" }, { "id": "anglosaxon_schiffels", "title": "Schiffels et al. 2016 (Nature Communications)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10408" } ], "rendered_case_id": "anglo-saxon-britain", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 8.2576331579, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.2576331579, "unknown_bound_high": 8.2576331579 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.6777950169, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.8653527867, "unknown_bound_high": 17.4740606604 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 71.7630948679, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.7630948679, "unknown_bound_high": 71.7630948679 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 44.2284253159, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.2284253159, "unknown_bound_high": 44.2284253159 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.3707439374, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5018029194, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.2761863613, "unknown_bound_high": 75.0958944191 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 95.007847318, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 95.007847318, "unknown_bound_high": 95.007847318 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-magyar-carpathian", "name": "Magyar settlement of the Carpathian Basin", "start": 895, "end": 1000, "date_label": "c. 895–1000 CE", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Magyar (early Hungarian) conquerors" ], "victims": [ "Late Avar, Slavic and Romance-speaking inhabitants of the Carpathian Basin" ], "agent_countries": [ "Hungary", "Ukraine", "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Hungary", "Romania", "Slovakia", "Ukraine", "Serbia", "Croatia", "Austria", "Slovenia" ], "container_countries": [ "Hungary", "Romania", "Slovakia", "Ukraine", "Serbia", "Croatia", "Austria", "Slovenia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly classified", "atlas_case_ids": "magyar-carpathian", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case. Language turnover by a demographic minority, a deliberate contrast to the replacement cases.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The conquest and settlement are real, but evidence does not support depicting the basin as simply emptied or its diverse population uniformly displaced; elite incorporation, warfare, migration, and assimilation must be separated.", "legacy_story": "Around 895 CE a confederation of Uralic-speaking horsemen, the Magyars, rode into the Carpathian Basin and stayed. They came from the Ural region carrying Inner Asian ancestry, and they made the plain of the middle Danube Hungarian, a Uralic island in a Slavic and Romance sea. Maroti and colleagues find the conquering core did carry distinctive eastern ancestry, but they were few and were absorbed within generations. The language held even as the gene pool did not.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "magyar_maroti", "title": "Maróti et al. 2022 (Current Biology)", "url": "https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(22)00732-1" }, { "id": "magyar_neparaczki", "title": "Neparáczki et al. 2019 (Scientific Reports)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-53105-5" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 10.869205019, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.869205019, "unknown_bound_high": 10.869205019 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 11.7675297551, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.7675297551, "unknown_bound_high": 11.7675297551 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 71.6285702401, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.6285702401, "unknown_bound_high": 71.6285702401 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 12.2406658198, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.2406658198, "unknown_bound_high": 12.2406658198 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.5128787121, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.5128787121, "unknown_bound_high": 34.5128787121 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 64.7016946595, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.7016946595, "unknown_bound_high": 64.7016946595 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-numic-spread", "name": "Numic spread across the Great Basin", "start": 1000, "end": 1700, "date_label": "c. 1000–1700 CE", "region": "North America", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Numic (Uto-Aztecan) speakers, ancestral Shoshone, Paiute, Ute and Kawaiisu" ], "victims": [ "Fremont farmer-foragers and other pre-Numic Great Basin peoples" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "numic-spread", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case read from linguistics and archaeology, one Indigenous people spreading over another.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "From a small homeland near the California-Nevada line, Numic-speaking people fanned out across the Great Basin over the last thousand years, the ancestors of the Shoshone, Paiute and Ute. As they spread they replaced the Fremont farmers and the other earlier peoples of the desert. It is the closest North American parallel to the Athabaskan migration, a documented ethnolinguistic turnover across a vast dry interior, ending only as horses and then settlers arrived from the east.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "numic_bettinger", "title": "Bettinger & Baumhoff 1982 (American Antiquity)", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-antiquity/article/abs/numic-spread-great-basin-cultures-in-competition/9B76B2BDD837C41A8C06B2B7E85F8DF5" }, { "id": "numic_madsen", "title": "Madsen & Rhode (eds.) 1994, Across the West", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Madsen+Rhode+Across+the+West+Numa" } ], "rendered_case_id": "numic-spread", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.5031764712, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.8561946135, "unknown_bound_high": 15.4649024872 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 85.617430903, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.617430903, "unknown_bound_high": 85.617430903 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 68.3401378308, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.3401378308, "unknown_bound_high": 68.3401378308 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.1213504695, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0675234745, "unknown_bound_high": 93.9324765255 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 95.007847318, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 95.007847318, "unknown_bound_high": 95.007847318 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-kayenta-salado", "name": "Kayenta migration into the southern deserts", "start": 1250, "end": 1450, "date_label": "c. 1250–1450 CE", "region": "North America", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Kayenta migrants from the northern Southwest (ancestral Puebloan)" ], "victims": [ "Local Hohokam and San Pedro / Tonto Basin populations" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States" ], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [ "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "kayenta-salado", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case, a rare instance where intrusive settlers left a clear material fingerprint among a host population.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "When the northern Southwest emptied in the late 1200s, Kayenta people from north-eastern Arizona moved south and planted immigrant enclaves among the Hohokam and the peoples of the San Pedro and Tonto basins. At sites like Reeve Ruin and Davis Ranch they kept a distinct identity, their own perforated plates, entry-box kivas and technology, the cleanest archaeological signature of settlers who move in and hold themselves apart. The blended Salado world that followed grew out of that meeting.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "kayenta_lyons", "title": "Lyons 2003, Ancestral Hopi Migrations", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Lyons+Ancestral+Hopi+Migrations" }, { "id": "kayenta_davis", "title": "Lyons (ed.) 2019, The Davis Ranch Site", "url": "https://uapress.arizona.edu/book/the-davis-ranch-site" } ], "rendered_case_id": "kayenta-salado", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 2.3517471453, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.3517471453, "unknown_bound_high": 2.3517471453 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 6.3536372199, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.8702075244, "unknown_bound_high": 13.4789153981 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 63.4840859132, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8585638752, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.5051428169, "unknown_bound_high": 68.6487552941 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 28.4058079491, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.4058079491, "unknown_bound_high": 28.4058079491 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1213504695, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 87.864953051 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 9.984305364, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.984305364, "unknown_bound_high": 9.984305364 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-pipil-nicarao", "name": "Nahua (Pipil and Nicarao) migration into Central America", "start": 900, "end": 1350, "date_label": "c. 900–1350 CE", "region": "Latin America", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Nahua-speaking migrants (Pipil and Nicarao) from central Mexico" ], "victims": [ "Maya, Lenca and Oto-Manguean (Chorotega) populations of Central America" ], "agent_countries": [ "Mexico" ], "victim_countries": [ "Guatemala", "El Salvador", "Honduras", "Nicaragua", "Costa Rica" ], "container_countries": [ "Mexico", "Guatemala", "El Salvador", "Honduras", "Nicaragua", "Costa Rica" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "pipil-nicarao", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case, one of the most overlooked long-distance migrations in the Americas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Long before the Spanish, Nahua-speaking people from central Mexico moved more than a thousand kilometres south into Central America. The Pipil settled western El Salvador and Guatemala, the Nicarao the Pacific shore of Nicaragua, founding lasting Nahua-speaking towns like Cuzcatlan among the resident Maya, Lenca and Chorotega. It was a folk migration that put down roots, not just a conquering dynasty.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "pipil_fowler", "title": "Fowler 1989, Ancient Nahua Civilizations", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Fowler+Cultural+Evolution+Ancient+Nahua+Civilizations" }, { "id": "pipil_fowler_ethno", "title": "Fowler 1985 (Ethnohistory)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.2307/482092" } ], "rendered_case_id": "pipil-nicarao", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 3.0689225092, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.0689225092, "unknown_bound_high": 3.0689225092 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 14.856813691, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.7264021379, "unknown_bound_high": 21.3351100116 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.6369825268, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5944436118, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.9619210775, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5175598993 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 17.8579289426, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.855512717, "unknown_bound_high": 68.4663314238 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.1213504695, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0675234745, "unknown_bound_high": 93.9324765255 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 85.1056280023, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.5005315962, "unknown_bound_high": 86.9616304154 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-wari-tiwanaku-moquegua", "name": "Wari and Tiwanaku colonies in Moquegua", "start": 600, "end": 1050, "date_label": "c. 600–1050 CE", "region": "Latin America", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Tiwanaku colonists from the Titicaca basin", "Wari colonists from Ayacucho" ], "victims": [ "Resident Huaracane population of the middle Moquegua valley" ], "agent_countries": [ "Peru", "Bolivia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Peru" ], "container_countries": [ "Peru", "Bolivia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "wari-tiwanaku-moquegua", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case, and the rare instance of two colonial powers settling one valley at once.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "In the Moquegua valley of southern Peru, two Andean states planted colonies side by side. Tiwanaku, from the shores of Lake Titicaca, sent farmers six hundred kilometres downslope to build homeland temples and cemeteries at Omo and Chen Chen. Wari, from Ayacucho, seized the Cerro Baul mesa above them and cut a canal to green the desert, a rival enclave in sight of the first. Goldstein calls the Tiwanaku settlements a true diaspora, colonists who moved and stayed for centuries, not a garrison.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "moquegua_goldstein", "title": "Goldstein 2005, Andean Diaspora", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Goldstein+Andean+Diaspora+Tiwanaku" }, { "id": "moquegua_williams", "title": "Williams 2001, Cerro Baúl (Latin American Antiquity)", "url": "https://www.latinamericanstudies.org/wari/cerro-baul.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "wari-tiwanaku-moquegua", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 58.5256864324, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.5256864324, "unknown_bound_high": 58.5256864324 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 22.2120654691, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.5220142948, "unknown_bound_high": 28.1307221685 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 77.965013737, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.965013737, "unknown_bound_high": 77.965013737 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 53.2280366453, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8152528685, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.3943095613, "unknown_bound_high": 61.8690227083 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1213504695, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8987147883 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 34.5025258946, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2031320478, "unknown_bound_high": 42.664230867 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-caribbean-saladoid", "name": "Saladoid settlement of the Caribbean", "start": -800, "end": 500, "date_label": "c. 800 BCE–500 CE", "region": "Latin America", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Saladoid (Arawak-speaking) farmers from the lower Orinoco" ], "victims": [ "Archaic-age foragers of the Antilles (Ortoiroid and Casimiroid)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Venezuela", "Guyana" ], "victim_countries": [ "Trinidad and Tobago", "Grenada", "Saint Vincent and the Grenadines", "Saint Lucia", "Dominica", "Martinique", "Antigua and Barbuda", "Puerto Rico", "U.S. Virgin Islands", "British Virgin Islands" ], "container_countries": [ "Venezuela", "Guyana", "Trinidad and Tobago", "Grenada", "Saint Vincent and the Grenadines", "Saint Lucia", "Dominica", "Antigua and Barbuda", "Puerto Rico", "U.S. Virgin Islands", "British Virgin Islands" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "caribbean-saladoid", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case read from ancient DNA. It reframes the Caribbean's colonization as something that began millennia before 1492.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "The Caribbean was colonized long before Columbus. From around 800 BCE, ceramic-making, cassava-farming people known as the Saladoid, Arawak speakers from the lower Orinoco, canoed up the island chain from Trinidad to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Ancient DNA now shows they did not blend with the archipelago's earlier foragers so much as replace them. Fernandes and colleagues find over ninety-eight percent of the ceramic-age ancestry was newcomer, with the older Archaic population surviving mainly in western Cuba.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "caribbean_fernandes", "title": "Fernandes et al. 2021 (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-03053-2" }, { "id": "caribbean_keegan", "title": "Keegan & Hofman 2017, The Caribbean before Columbus", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Keegan+Hofman+Caribbean+before+Columbus" } ], "rendered_case_id": "caribbean-saladoid", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.8384210079, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.1659313728, "unknown_bound_high": 15.7746392465 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 85.617430903, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.617430903, "unknown_bound_high": 85.617430903 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 74.4767387495, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.4767387495, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4767387495 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 12.8059490456, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2369025307, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 79.3435086646 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 82.5099170685, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.5099170685, "unknown_bound_high": 82.5099170685 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-indonesian-transmigration", "name": "Indonesian Transmigration", "start": 1905, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1905–present", "region": "South and Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "State-sponsored Javanese, Madurese, Balinese and Sundanese settlers" ], "victims": [ "Dayak peoples of Kalimantan", "Indigenous peoples of Sulawesi and Sumatra" ], "agent_countries": [ "Indonesia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Indonesia", "West Papua" ], "container_countries": [ "Indonesia", "West Papua" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "indonesian-transmigration", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The clearest modern non-European settler program, run by an Asian state rather than an overseas empire. West Papua is treated as its own case.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Dutch-era colonisatie, New Order mass transmigration, province-specific settlement frontiers, and later decentralized or spontaneous migration have different coercive and demographic effects.", "legacy_story": "For a century the state has moved poor farmers from crowded Java, Madura and Bali to Indonesia's outer islands and settled them on land that was already someone's. It began as Dutch kolonisatie in 1905 and became a vast program under Suharto, relocating millions onto forest and customary land in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. In Lampung the transmigrants became the majority. Dayak and other Indigenous peoples were pushed aside, and the resentment erupted in the Sampit killings of 2001.", "legacy_fit": "strong", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "transmig_hardjono", "title": "Hardjono 1977, Transmigration in Indonesia", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Hardjono+Transmigration+in+Indonesia" }, { "id": "transmig_fearnside", "title": "Fearnside 1997 (Environmental Management)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s002679900041" } ], "rendered_case_id": "indonesian-transmigration", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.0957648815, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.0957648815, "unknown_bound_high": 81.0957648815 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 82.2913072247, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.2913072247, "unknown_bound_high": 82.2913072247 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 78.5572906814, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.5572906814, "unknown_bound_high": 78.5572906814 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 44.114279645, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.114279645, "unknown_bound_high": 44.114279645 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 37.4982472265, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.4982472265, "unknown_bound_high": 37.4982472265 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 69.5181440872, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.5181440872, "unknown_bound_high": 69.5181440872 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-yunnan-han", "name": "Han colonization of the Yunnan frontier", "start": 1382, "end": 1850, "date_label": "c. 1382–1850 CE", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Han military colonists and civilian migrants" ], "victims": [ "Tai (Dai), Yi, Bai and Hani peoples of the south-west" ], "agent_countries": [ "China" ], "victim_countries": [ "China" ], "container_countries": [ "China" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "yunnan-han", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "A frontier settler process distinct from the atlas's Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang cases, and thinner in the Tai-majority far south.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Ming military colonies, Qing frontier administration and migration, mining booms, and suppression of local polities form multiple settlement waves over nearly five centuries.", "legacy_story": "Yunnan became part of China by settlement as much as by conquest. After the Ming took the south-west in 1382 they planted military-agricultural colonies, soldiers brought with their families, and civilian Han migrants followed for four centuries. The Tai, Yi, Bai and Hani were pushed into the uplands or absorbed as the basins around Kunming and Dali turned Han-majority. In the far south, among the Tai of Sipsong Panna, settlement stayed thin.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "yunnan_giersch", "title": "Giersch 2006, Asian Borderlands", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Giersch+Asian+Borderlands+Yunnan" }, { "id": "yunnan_yang", "title": "Bin Yang 2009, Between Winds and Clouds", "url": "https://www.gutenberg-e.org/yang/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "yunnan-han", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 71.1144995583, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.1144995583, "unknown_bound_high": 71.1144995583 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 74.7972444455, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.7972444455, "unknown_bound_high": 74.7972444455 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.3946017899, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.3946017899, "unknown_bound_high": 75.3946017899 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 30.3734487411, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.3734487411, "unknown_bound_high": 30.3734487411 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.1963773013, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.1963773013, "unknown_bound_high": 52.1963773013 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 87.3528564394, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.3528564394, "unknown_bound_high": 87.3528564394 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-tai-ahom-assam", "name": "Tai-Ahom settlement of Assam", "start": 1228, "end": 1826, "date_label": "1228–1826 CE", "region": "South and Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Tai (Ahom) migrants from the upper Burma-Yunnan borderlands" ], "victims": [ "Bodo-Kachari, Chutiya, Moran and Borahi peoples of the Brahmaputra valley" ], "agent_countries": [ "China", "Myanmar", "India" ], "victim_countries": [ "India" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Myanmar", "India" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "tai-ahom-assam", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An eastern-India frontier case, a thin settler elite that endured and then assimilated.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "In 1228 a Tai prince named Sukaphaa crossed the Patkai hills from the upper Burma borderlands into the Brahmaputra valley with a few thousand followers, and the order they built lasted six hundred years. The Ahom cleared wet-rice land, bound the local Bodo-Kachari, Chutiya and Moran into a corvee-settlement system, and slowly made Assam their own even as they themselves took on Hindu ways. A small warrior-migrant elite that reshaped a valley.", "legacy_fit": "partial", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "ahom_saikia", "title": "Saikia 2004, Fragmented Memories", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Saikia+Fragmented+Memories+Tai-Ahom" }, { "id": "ahom_gait", "title": "Gait 1905, A History of Assam", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Gait+History+of+Assam" } ], "rendered_case_id": "tai-ahom-assam", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 26.6862237147, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.6862237147, "unknown_bound_high": 26.6862237147 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 53.5442067437, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.5442067437, "unknown_bound_high": 53.5442067437 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.7597010537, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.7597010537, "unknown_bound_high": 50.7597010537 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 5.7126829492, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.7126829492, "unknown_bound_high": 5.7126829492 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 45.1976654639, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.1976654639, "unknown_bound_high": 45.1976654639 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 68.3574544021, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.3574544021, "unknown_bound_high": 68.3574544021 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 6.25, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.25, "unknown_bound_high": 6.25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-bamar-pagan", "name": "Burman settlement of the Irrawaddy", "start": 849, "end": 1287, "date_label": "9th–13th c. CE", "region": "South and Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Burman (Bamar) migrants from the northern uplands" ], "victims": [ "Pyu city-states and Mon of the lower Irrawaddy" ], "agent_countries": [ "China", "Myanmar" ], "victim_countries": [ "Myanmar" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Myanmar" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "bamar-pagan", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case whose founding narrative is itself contested scholarship.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The case infers a long demographic settlement from language, archaeology, and state formation; it does not establish one bounded displacement event or clearly identify affected predecessor communities.", "legacy_story": "The Burmans entered the Irrawaddy from the northern hills in the ninth century and made its dry heartland their own. As they built Bagan and its thousands of temples, the old Pyu city-states faded and their people were absorbed, and the Mon of the south were subordinated. The valley that had been Pyu and Mon became Burman, the demographic core of Myanmar to this day.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "bamar_aungthwin", "title": "Aung-Thwin 2005, The Mists of Rāmañña", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Aung-Thwin+Mists+of+Ramanna" }, { "id": "bamar_lieberman", "title": "Lieberman 2003, Strange Parallels I", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511512087" } ], "rendered_case_id": "bamar-pagan", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 1.5181337239, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.5181337239, "unknown_bound_high": 1.5181337239 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 20.7263765848, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.1493671376, "unknown_bound_high": 26.7580750113 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.6798607304, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5944436118, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.2040789164, "unknown_bound_high": 83.7597177382 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 17.3422403743, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.6907141481, "unknown_bound_high": 25.2138564324 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.2193833473, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.2803486359, "unknown_bound_high": 90.5282014717 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 82.5467484988, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.5467484988, "unknown_bound_high": 82.5467484988 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-karafuto-sakhalin", "name": "Japanese Karafuto (southern Sakhalin)", "start": 1905, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1905–1945", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Japanese home-island settlers", "state-assisted migrants for coal, timber and fisheries" ], "victims": [ "Ainu", "Uilta (Orok)", "Nivkh (Gilyak)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Japan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Russia", "Japan" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia", "Japan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "karafuto-sakhalin", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Korean labourers, many brought under coercion, are counted apart from the settler population.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Japanese settler colonization, Indigenous Ainu/Nivkh/Uilta dispossession, coerced Korean labor, and the 1945 Soviet takeover and population removals are distinct histories.", "legacy_story": "Japan took the southern half of Sakhalin from Russia in 1905 and made Karafuto a settler prefecture. Migrants poured in for the coal, timber and fisheries, and by the mid-1930s the population passed 300,000, overwhelmingly Japanese settlers, against roughly 2,000 Ainu, Uilta and Nivkh. Tessa Morris-Suzuki describes it as an overwhelmingly settler colony. The 1945 Soviet conquest ended it, and almost all the settlers were repatriated, the mirror image of the colony's rise.", "legacy_fit": "core", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "karafuto_morris", "title": "Morris-Suzuki 2001 (J. Asian Studies)", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-asian-studies/article/abs/northern-lights-the-making-and-unmaking-of-karafuto-identity/781B9E365E60FA68CA275FA4BBE2E045" }, { "id": "karafuto_paichadze", "title": "Paichadze & Seaton (eds.) 2015, Voices from Karafuto/Sakhalin", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Voices+from+the+Shifting+Russo-Japanese+Border+Karafuto+Sakhalin" } ], "rendered_case_id": "karafuto-sakhalin", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 75.402058006, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.402058006, "unknown_bound_high": 75.402058006 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 80.0294339222, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.0294339222, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0294339222 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.6806443325, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.6806443325, "unknown_bound_high": 75.6806443325 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 72.0964015152, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.0964015152, "unknown_bound_high": 72.0964015152 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 30.8741700453, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.8741700453, "unknown_bound_high": 30.8741700453 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 27.222519155, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.222519155, "unknown_bound_high": 27.222519155 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-maasai-expansion", "name": "Maasai expansion across the Rift Valley", "start": 1600, "end": 1870, "date_label": "c. 1600–1870", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Maasai (Plains Nilotic pastoralists)" ], "victims": [ "Sirikwa and earlier highland peoples", "Southern Cushitic pastoralists", "Okiek (Dorobo) hunter-gatherers", "Kwavi, Laikipiak and other defeated Maa sections" ], "agent_countries": [ "Kenya", "Tanzania", "South Sudan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Kenya", "Tanzania" ], "container_countries": [ "Kenya", "Tanzania", "South Sudan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "maasai-expansion", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case of the pastoralist age. The Nandi push into the Uasin Gishu is its tail end, and the British later took the same highlands as the Kenya Highlands.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "The Maasai, Plains Nilotic pastoralists, spread south out of the Lake Turkana region across the Rift Valley from around the seventeenth century, taking the best grazing as they went. They moved into the stone-walled cattle country of the earlier Sirikwa, absorbed or drove off Southern Cushitic herders and Okiek hunter-gatherers, and in the nineteenth-century Iloikop wars the Maasai proper defeated and scattered rival Maa sections like the Kwavi and Laikipiak. Around 1850 they held a corridor from central Kenya to northern Tanzania, until the 1880s and 1890s brought rinderpest, smallpox and drought, the Mutai, and broke them.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "being_maasai", "title": "Spear & Waller (eds.) 1993, Being Maasai", "url": "https://history.wisc.edu/publications/being-maasai-ethnicity-and-identity-in-east-africa/" }, { "id": "waller_expansion", "title": "Waller 1985, Ecology, Migration and Expansion in East Africa (African Affairs)", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Waller+Ecology+Migration+Expansion+East+Africa+African+Affairs+1985" } ], "rendered_case_id": "maasai-expansion", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 5.9058860126, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.9058860126, "unknown_bound_high": 5.9058860126 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 13.3599699642, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.3599699642, "unknown_bound_high": 13.3599699642 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 80.0210467701, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.0210467701, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0210467701 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 44.2284253159, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.2284253159, "unknown_bound_high": 44.2284253159 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 55.006075339, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 35.3787481016, "unknown_bound_high": 71.0608561533 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 88.3591673927, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.3591673927, "unknown_bound_high": 88.3591673927 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-nandi-uasin-gishu", "name": "Nandi expansion into the Uasin Gishu", "start": 1850, "end": 1890, "date_label": "c. 1850–1890", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Nandi (Kalenjin, Southern Nilotic)" ], "victims": [ "Uasin Gishu Maasai (a defeated Maa section)" ], "agent_countries": [ "Kenya" ], "victim_countries": [ "Kenya" ], "container_countries": [ "Kenya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "nandi-uasin-gishu", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "The tail end of the Rift Valley pastoralist wars, on highlands the British soon took as the Kenya Highlands.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "In the middle of the nineteenth century the Nandi, a Kalenjin people of the western highlands, took the Uasin Gishu plateau from the Uasin Gishu Maasai, one of the Maasai sections. That section had already been broken in the Maasai civil wars, and the survivors were finished by the rinderpest, smallpox and drought of the 1890s. The Nandi moved into the wreckage as much as they conquered it, and held the plateau until the British seized it for white settlers around 1906.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "huntingford_nandi", "title": "Huntingford 1953, The Nandi of Kenya", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Huntingford+The+Nandi+of+Kenya" }, { "id": "being_maasai", "title": "Spear & Waller (eds.) 1993, Being Maasai", "url": "https://history.wisc.edu/publications/being-maasai-ethnicity-and-identity-in-east-africa/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "nandi-uasin-gishu", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 15.0820689561, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.0820689561, "unknown_bound_high": 15.0820689561 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.9064804039, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.9064804039, "unknown_bound_high": 7.9064804039 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 85.617430903, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.617430903, "unknown_bound_high": 85.617430903 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 68.7964647037, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.7964647037, "unknown_bound_high": 68.7964647037 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 66.3687208353, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.3687208353, "unknown_bound_high": 66.3687208353 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 90.015694636, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.015694636, "unknown_bound_high": 90.015694636 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-ndebele-shona", "name": "Ndebele conquest of the Shona plateau", "start": 1838, "end": 1893, "date_label": "c. 1838–1893", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Ndebele (Khumalo Nguni) under Mzilikazi and Lobengula" ], "victims": [ "Shona and Kalanga chiefdoms of the plateau", "the remnant Rozvi state" ], "agent_countries": [ "South Africa", "Zimbabwe" ], "victim_countries": [ "Zimbabwe" ], "container_countries": [ "South Africa", "Zimbabwe" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "ndebele-shona", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "A pre-colonial conquest the British settlement of Rhodesia then layered over. See the Southern Rhodesia case.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The label reduces a sequence involving the Rozvi state, Kalanga communities, multiple Ndebele migrations, tribute relations, raids, and later colonial ethnic categories to a single Ndebele-versus-Shona event.", "legacy_story": "Fleeing Shaka's Zulu, Mzilikazi led his Ndebele across the Limpopo, and by 1840 had built a kingdom on the high country of what is now south-western Zimbabwe. The Ndebele settled Matabeleland, raided the Shona chiefdoms for cattle and captives, and ruled the plateau until a British column broke the kingdom in 1893 and took the land for the settlers of Rhodesia.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "rasmussen_ndebele", "title": "Rasmussen 1978, Migrant Kingdom: Mzilikazi's Ndebele", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Rasmussen+Migrant+Kingdom+Mzilikazi+Ndebele" }, { "id": "beach_shona", "title": "Beach 1980, The Shona and Zimbabwe 900-1850", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Beach+The+Shona+and+Zimbabwe" } ], "rendered_case_id": "ndebele-shona", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 27.4628403356, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.4628403356, "unknown_bound_high": 27.4628403356 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 15.7839432788, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.7839432788, "unknown_bound_high": 15.7839432788 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 71.6399792258, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.6399792258, "unknown_bound_high": 71.6399792258 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 21.5499516716, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.5499516716, "unknown_bound_high": 21.5499516716 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.5128787121, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.5128787121, "unknown_bound_high": 59.5128787121 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 43.8212897065, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.8212897065, "unknown_bound_high": 43.8212897065 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-oromo-expansion", "name": "Oromo expansion into the Ethiopian highlands", "start": 1522, "end": 1700, "date_label": "c. 1522–1700", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Oromo (Cushitic pastoralists of the gada system)" ], "victims": [ "Sidama and Damot peoples", "frontier Amhara and Christian-kingdom populations", "the southern reach of the sultanate of Adal" ], "agent_countries": [ "Ethiopia", "Kenya" ], "victim_countries": [ "Ethiopia", "Somalia", "Kenya" ], "container_countries": [ "Ethiopia", "Somalia", "Kenya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "oromo-expansion", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case that reshaped the Ethiopian highlands before any European involvement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Two centuries of movement, alliance, adoption, conquest, assimilation, and state formation across a vast region cannot support a single displacement arrow or a single agent–victim story.", "legacy_story": "From about 1522 the Oromo, Cushitic pastoralists organized by the gada age-grade system, pushed north and west out of the southern lowlands into the heart of Ethiopia. Over two centuries they took much of the central highlands, settling on land emptied by the recent wars between the Christian kingdom and the sultanate of Adal, and displacing or absorbing Sidama, Damot and frontier Amhara. The sixteenth-century monk Bahrey wrote the first account of them, from the Christian side.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "hassen_oromo", "title": "Mohammed Hassen 1990, The Oromo of Ethiopia 1570-1860", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Mohammed+Hassen+Oromo+of+Ethiopia+History" }, { "id": "bahrey_oromo", "title": "Bahrey 1593, History of the Galla (Beckingham & Huntingford)", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Bahrey+History+of+the+Galla" } ], "rendered_case_id": "oromo-expansion", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 8.5174578737, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.5174578737, "unknown_bound_high": 8.5174578737 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 15.3691281375, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.3691281375, "unknown_bound_high": 15.3691281375 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 87.2521574219, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.2521574219, "unknown_bound_high": 87.2521574219 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 35.4230293547, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.4230293547, "unknown_bound_high": 35.4230293547 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 53.9974382535, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.805466382, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.4931212283, "unknown_bound_high": 62.9464830265 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 90.9847388667, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.9847388667, "unknown_bound_high": 90.9847388667 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-luo-migration", "name": "Luo migration into the Lake Victoria basin", "start": 1500, "end": 1850, "date_label": "c. 1500–1850", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Luo (River-Lake Nilotes)" ], "victims": [ "Gusii and other Bantu of the lake basin, pushed to the highlands", "earlier Kalenjin-related peoples" ], "agent_countries": [ "South Sudan", "Uganda" ], "victim_countries": [ "Uganda", "Kenya", "Tanzania" ], "container_countries": [ "South Sudan", "Uganda", "Kenya", "Tanzania" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "luo-migration", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case, alongside the Maasai and Nandi movements.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The umbrella joins several migrations and settlements over centuries; language spread, intermarriage, political incorporation, and displacement differed across Acholi, Alur, Luo, and neighboring histories.", "legacy_story": "The Luo, River-Lake Nilotes, moved south out of the southern Sudan over several centuries and settled the eastern shore of Lake Victoria in what is now western Kenya. As they took the lakeshore and its fishing and grazing, they pushed the Bantu Gusii up into the highlands, absorbed other neighbours, and made Nyanza a Luo country.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "ogot_luo", "title": "Ogot 1967, History of the Southern Luo", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Ogot+History+of+the+Southern+Luo" }, { "id": "sutton_eastafrica", "title": "Sutton 1990, A Thousand Years of East Africa", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Sutton+A+Thousand+Years+of+East+Africa" } ], "rendered_case_id": "luo-migration", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 2.3517471453, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.3517471453, "unknown_bound_high": 2.3517471453 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 9.9156385771, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9156385771, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9156385771 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 79.2057831799, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.2057831799, "unknown_bound_high": 79.2057831799 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 40.8219026419, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.8219026419, "unknown_bound_high": 40.8219026419 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.3525984079, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.5673833025, "unknown_bound_high": 73.8046974779 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 91.9537830974, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.9537830974, "unknown_bound_high": 91.9537830974 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-oorlam-namibia", "name": "Oorlam expansion into central Namibia", "start": 1815, "end": 1870, "date_label": "c. 1815–1870", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Oorlam (Orlam) commandos from the Cape frontier" ], "victims": [ "Nama (Khoekhoe) chiefdoms", "Herero (Ovaherero) of the central highland" ], "agent_countries": [ "South Africa", "Namibia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Namibia" ], "container_countries": [ "South Africa", "Namibia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "exact", "atlas_case_ids": "oorlam-namibia", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "A pre-colonial expansion German South West Africa then displaced. See the Namibia case.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "Armed with guns, horses and ox-wagons from the Cape frontier, Afrikaans-speaking Oorlam commandos crossed the Orange River into central Namibia from the 1810s. Under Jonker Afrikaner they made Windhoek their base, subdued the Nama chiefdoms and fought the Herero for the central grazing lands through mid-century, running a raiding and cattle economy until German colonization overtook it after 1884.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "lau_namibia", "title": "Lau 1987, Namibia in Jonker Afrikaner's Time", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Lau+Namibia+in+Jonker+Afrikaner+Time" }, { "id": "wallace_namibia", "title": "Wallace 2011, A History of Namibia", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Wallace+A+History+of+Namibia" } ], "rendered_case_id": "oorlam-namibia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 20.1855431151, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.1855431151, "unknown_bound_high": 20.1855431151 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 18.6396182332, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.6396182332, "unknown_bound_high": 18.6396182332 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.907930711, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.907930711, "unknown_bound_high": 68.907930711 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.4533575747, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.4533575747, "unknown_bound_high": 31.4533575747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 53.7204403917, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.7204403917, "unknown_bound_high": 53.7204403917 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 34.0573350764, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.0573350764, "unknown_bound_high": 34.0573350764 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-sokoto-caliphate", "name": "The Fulani jihad and the Sokoto Caliphate", "start": 1804, "end": 1903, "date_label": "1804–1903", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Fulani emirs, scholars and pastoralist settlers" ], "victims": [ "Hausa ruling classes of Kano, Katsina, Gobir and the other states", "non-Muslim Middle Belt peoples raided for captives" ], "agent_countries": [ "Nigeria", "Niger", "Cameroon" ], "victim_countries": [ "Nigeria", "Niger", "Cameroon", "Benin", "Burkina Faso" ], "container_countries": [ "Nigeria", "Niger", "Cameroon", "Benin", "Burkina Faso" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly classified", "atlas_case_ids": "sokoto-caliphate", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Included as an elite-conquest case, a deliberate contrast to the replacement expansions.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Fulani jihad created conquest states, enslavement, tribute, and some pastoral settlement, but should not be presented as a uniform demographic replacement analogue.", "legacy_story": "In 1804 the Fulani scholar Usman dan Fodio launched a jihad against the Hausa kings, and within a decade his followers had overthrown the Hausa city-states and built the Sokoto Caliphate, the largest state in nineteenth-century Africa. Fulani emirs took the thrones, Fulani pastoralists pressed onto Hausa and Middle Belt land, and the caliphate raided the non-Muslim south for captives until the British conquered it in 1903.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "last_sokoto", "title": "Last 1967, The Sokoto Caliphate", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Last+The+Sokoto+Caliphate" }, { "id": "hiskett_dan_fodio", "title": "Hiskett 1973, The Sword of Truth (Usman dan Fodio)", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Hiskett+Sword+of+Truth+dan+Fodio" } ], "rendered_case_id": "sokoto-caliphate", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 33.1500537015, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.1500537015, "unknown_bound_high": 33.1500537015 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 50.0353217918, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.0353217918, "unknown_bound_high": 50.0353217918 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 70.5861206655, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.5861206655, "unknown_bound_high": 70.5861206655 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 10.4601582624, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.4601582624, "unknown_bound_high": 10.4601582624 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.7970693864, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.7970693864, "unknown_bound_high": 68.7970693864 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 84.3728198608, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.3728198608, "unknown_bound_high": 84.3728198608 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-banu-hilal", "name": "The Banu Hilal migration into the Maghreb", "start": 1050, "end": 1200, "date_label": "c. 1050–1200", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Banu Hilal and Banu Sulaym Arab Bedouin" ], "victims": [ "Amazigh (Berber) rural and settled societies of Ifriqiya and the central Maghreb" ], "agent_countries": [ "Saudi Arabia", "Egypt", "Libya" ], "victim_countries": [ "Libya", "Tunisia", "Algeria", "Morocco" ], "container_countries": [ "Saudi Arabia", "Egypt", "Libya", "Tunisia", "Algeria", "Morocco" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "banu-hilal", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "An expansion case of nomadic migration and cultural turnover rather than organized settlement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Migration is historically consequential, but sweeping claims that it simply displaced or replaced Amazigh populations require regional qualification and should distinguish language shift, pastoral conflict, and state policy.", "legacy_story": "Around 1050 the Fatimid rulers of Egypt loosed the Bedouin tribes of the Banu Hilal and Banu Sulaym westward into Ifriqiya as a punishment on a rebellious vassal. Tens of thousands of Arab nomads poured across North Africa over the following century, wrecking the Zirid towns, turning farmland to pasture, and spreading Arabic and Bedouin ways among the Amazigh. Ibn Khaldun, four centuries later, likened them to a swarm of locusts.", "legacy_fit": "analogue", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "ibn_khaldun", "title": "Ibn Khaldun, The Muqaddimah", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Ibn+Khaldun+Muqaddimah" }, { "id": "julien_maghreb", "title": "Julien 1970, History of North Africa", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Julien+History+of+North+Africa" } ], "rendered_case_id": "banu-hilal", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 9.2789597231, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8899309195, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.2576331579, "unknown_bound_high": 19.2645412128 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 9.7583715819, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.7583715819, "unknown_bound_high": 9.7583715819 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.7284075007, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.7284075007, "unknown_bound_high": 68.7284075007 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 13.7585884517, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.7585884517, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7585884517 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.2892513802, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 32.3449863643, "unknown_bound_high": 68.027094416 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 67.320074497, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.320074497, "unknown_bound_high": 67.320074497 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-bantu-farmer-settlement-congo-basin", "name": "Settlement and demographic expansion of Bantu-speaking farmers through the western and central African rainforest", "start": -3000, "end": 500, "date_label": "c. 3000 BCE–500 CE", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Bantu-speaking farming communities moving through and around the western and central African rainforest" ], "victims": [ "Earlier rainforest forager communities, including populations ancestrally related to today's Aka, Baka, and Bagyeli, who were absorbed, marginalized, or displaced in different local sequences" ], "agent_countries": [ "Cameroon", "Nigeria" ], "victim_countries": [ "Cameroon", "Gabon", "Equatorial Guinea", "Republic of the Congo", "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Central African Republic", "Angola" ], "container_countries": [ "Cameroon", "Nigeria", "Gabon", "Equatorial Guinea", "Republic of the Congo", "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Central African Republic", "Angola" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "bantu-western-central", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Farming populations moved gradually through and around the rainforest, mixed with some existing forager populations, and became demographically dominant in many regions. The process was neither one migration nor uniform replacement.", "disputes": "Genetic and archaeological chronologies remain uneven, and modern language identity cannot be projected unchanged into the deep past.", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas's western-corridor label turns a long, branching demographic history into a single arrow and implies language spread alone. This regional phase must be presented as settlement, mixture, and locally variable marginalization.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Farming populations moved gradually through and around the rainforest, mixed with some existing forager populations, and became demographically dominant in many regions. The process was neither one migration nor uniform replacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "bantu_genetics", "title": "Fortes-Lima et al. 2024 (Nature)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06770-6" }, { "id": "bantu_pnas", "title": "Grollemund et al. 2015 (PNAS)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1503793112" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-bantu-farmer-settlement-congo-basin", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.6733948885, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0134616087, "unknown_bound_high": 15.6221694824 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 86.4571126288, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.4571126288, "unknown_bound_high": 86.4571126288 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 46.1783085602, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.1783085602, "unknown_bound_high": 46.1783085602 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 41.198157186, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3656319173, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.0633611999, "unknown_bound_high": 78.5001694728 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 97.6065143003, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.6065143003, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6065143003 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-bantu-farmer-settlement-great-lakes", "name": "Settlement of the Great Lakes region by Bantu-speaking farmers and ironworkers", "start": -800, "end": 1000, "date_label": "c. 800 BCE–1000 CE", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Bantu-speaking farming and ironworking communities, including populations associated archaeologically with Urewe traditions" ], "victims": [ "Kansyore and other fisher-forager communities around Lake Victoria; Batwa-related forest-forager populations; and earlier pastoralists who were absorbed, displaced, or pushed into ecological margins" ], "agent_countries": [ "Cameroon", "Democratic Republic of the Congo" ], "victim_countries": [ "Uganda", "Rwanda", "Burundi", "Tanzania", "Kenya", "Democratic Republic of the Congo" ], "container_countries": [ "Cameroon", "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Uganda", "Rwanda", "Burundi", "Tanzania", "Kenya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "bantu-eastern-southern | bantu-western-central", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Bantu-speaking farming and ironworking communities established durable settlements around the Great Lakes. Their interaction with Kansyore and other fisher-foragers, Batwa-related forest communities, and pastoralists included exchange and admixture as well as absorption, displacement, and marginalization.", "disputes": "Urewe and Kansyore are archaeological traditions rather than ethnic names, and modern population identities cannot be projected unchanged into the deep past.", "omission_or_category_error": "The Great Lakes was a major demographic and cultural formation zone, not a waypoint inside two continent-scale corridors.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Bantu-speaking farming and ironworking communities established durable settlements around the Great Lakes. Their interaction with Kansyore and other fisher-foragers, Batwa-related forest communities, and pastoralists included exchange and admixture as well as absorption, displacement, and marginalization.", "sources": [ { "id": "bantu_genetics", "title": "Fortes-Lima et al. 2024 (Nature)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06770-6" }, { "id": "bantu_mobility", "title": "Grollemund, Schoenbrun & Vansina 2023", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021853722000780" }, { "id": "east_africa_food_producers_adna", "title": "Prendergast et al. 2019, Ancient DNA reveals a multistep spread of the first herders into sub-Saharan Africa", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw6275" }, { "id": "african_foragers_adna", "title": "Lipson et al. 2022, Ancient DNA and deep population structure in sub-Saharan African foragers", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04430-9" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-bantu-farmer-settlement-great-lakes", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.8524135626, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.8745109599, "unknown_bound_high": 19.4832188336 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 78.7871205553, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8921511443, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.2900197564, "unknown_bound_high": 81.0749053304 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 46.8513132179, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7372998702, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 34.5434671532, "unknown_bound_high": 60.8134801354 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 37.1311719598, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.250079856, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.2857581381, "unknown_bound_high": 84.2777725347 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 93.7694505904, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.7694505904, "unknown_bound_high": 93.7694505904 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-bantu-farmer-settlement-eastern-africa", "name": "Settlement and demographic expansion of Bantu-speaking farmers through eastern Africa", "start": -500, "end": 1200, "date_label": "c. 500 BCE–1200 CE", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Bantu-speaking farming and, in many regions, ironworking communities moving from the Great Lakes into the Kenya–Tanzania interior and coast" ], "victims": [ "Kansyore and other eastern African foragers; Pastoral Neolithic herders associated with ancestral South Cushitic speakers; and forager populations related to the ancestors of today's Hadza and Sandawe" ], "agent_countries": [ "Uganda", "Tanzania" ], "victim_countries": [ "Kenya", "Tanzania" ], "container_countries": [ "Uganda", "Kenya", "Tanzania" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "bantu-eastern-southern", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Bantu-speaking farmers established settlements through the Kenya–Tanzania interior and along the eastern African coast over many centuries. They encountered a mosaic of Kansyore and other foragers and Pastoral Neolithic herders; the resulting histories included coexistence and admixture as well as absorption, displacement, and confinement to less productive land.", "disputes": "Kansyore and Pastoral Neolithic are archaeological labels, not ethnic names. Ancient foragers cannot simply be called Hadza or Sandawe, although those present-day peoples retain ancestry related to some earlier eastern African forager populations.", "omission_or_category_error": "The current eastern-and-southern corridor suppresses regional pauses, interaction with pastoralists and foragers, and separate coastal and interior histories.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Bantu-speaking farmers established settlements through the Kenya–Tanzania interior and along the eastern African coast over many centuries. They encountered a mosaic of Kansyore and other foragers and Pastoral Neolithic herders; the resulting histories included coexistence and admixture as well as absorption, displacement, and confinement to less productive land.", "sources": [ { "id": "bantu_genetics", "title": "Fortes-Lima et al. 2024 (Nature)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06770-6" }, { "id": "bantu_mobility", "title": "Grollemund, Schoenbrun & Vansina 2023", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021853722000780" }, { "id": "east_africa_food_producers_adna", "title": "Prendergast et al. 2019, Ancient DNA reveals a multistep spread of the first herders into sub-Saharan Africa", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw6275" }, { "id": "african_foragers_adna", "title": "Lipson et al. 2022, Ancient DNA and deep population structure in sub-Saharan African foragers", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04430-9" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-bantu-farmer-settlement-eastern-africa", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 14.5215691543, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.4166653786, "unknown_bound_high": 21.0253732523 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 79.499713241, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8921511443, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.9257601363, "unknown_bound_high": 81.7106457103 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 42.32930407, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.2982242154, "unknown_bound_high": 47.8213664997 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.4954682082, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3656319173, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.0971229372, "unknown_bound_high": 81.5339312101 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-bantu-farmer-settlement-southern-africa", "name": "Settlement and demographic expansion of Bantu-speaking farmers into southern Africa", "start": 200, "end": 1500, "date_label": "c. 200–1500 CE", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Bantu-speaking ironworking farming communities settling south of the Zambezi" ], "victims": [ "San foragers and Khoe pastoralists absorbed, displaced, or later confined to marginal zones" ], "agent_countries": [ "Zambia", "Zimbabwe", "Mozambique", "Malawi" ], "victim_countries": [ "Zimbabwe", "Botswana", "South Africa", "Eswatini", "Lesotho", "Namibia", "Mozambique" ], "container_countries": [ "Zambia", "Zimbabwe", "Mozambique", "Malawi", "Botswana", "South Africa", "Eswatini", "Lesotho", "Namibia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "bantu-eastern-southern", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Ironworking farmers established settlements across southern Africa and eventually became numerically dominant in most arable regions. Khoe and San communities experienced different combinations of exchange, absorption, conflict, and retreat.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas compresses more than a millennium of settlement, mixture, and regionally distinct Khoe-San dispossession into one line.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Ironworking farmers established settlements across southern Africa and eventually became numerically dominant in most arable regions. Khoe and San communities experienced different combinations of exchange, absorption, conflict, and retreat.", "sources": [ { "id": "bantu_genetics", "title": "Fortes-Lima et al. 2024 (Nature)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06770-6" }, { "id": "bantu_mobility", "title": "Grollemund, Schoenbrun & Vansina 2023", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021853722000780" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-bantu-farmer-settlement-southern-africa", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 14.856813691, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.7264021379, "unknown_bound_high": 21.3351100116 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 78.3786839369, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.3786839369, "unknown_bound_high": 78.3786839369 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 45.4405809286, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.4405809286, "unknown_bound_high": 45.4405809286 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 28.5334499474, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5279193798, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.0633611999, "unknown_bound_high": 62.2714232194 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-transatlantic-slave-removal-senegambia-upper-guinea", "name": "Transatlantic enslavement and population removal from Senegambia and Upper Guinea", "start": 1501, "end": 1866, "date_label": "1501–1866", "region": "Africa and the Atlantic", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "African and European slave-trading states, merchants, raiders, and shipowners" ], "victims": [ "Captives removed from Senegambia, Sierra Leone, and the Windward Coast" ], "agent_countries": [ "Portugal", "Spain", "United Kingdom", "France", "Netherlands", "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "Senegal", "Gambia", "Guinea", "Guinea-Bissau", "Sierra Leone", "Liberia", "Côte d’Ivoire", "Cabo Verde" ], "container_countries": [ "Senegal", "Gambia", "Guinea", "Guinea-Bissau", "Sierra Leone", "Liberia", "Côte d’Ivoire", "Cabo Verde", "Portugal", "Spain", "United Kingdom", "France", "Netherlands", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Atlantic slaving removed large numbers of people from Senegambia and Upper Guinea and generated additional internal displacement through warfare, raiding, and flight.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas maps settlement destinations but omits the massive forced removal that depopulated and destabilized African source regions.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Atlantic slaving removed large numbers of people from Senegambia and Upper Guinea and generated additional internal displacement through warfare, raiding, and flight.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_transatlantic_slave_voyages", "title": "SlaveVoyages, Estimates of the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade, 1501–1866", "url": "https://www.slavevoyages.org/assessment/estimates" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 53.466077111, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.466077111, "unknown_bound_high": 53.466077111 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 31.3339313931, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.3339313931, "unknown_bound_high": 31.3339313931 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 19.0298923489, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.0298923489, "unknown_bound_high": 19.0298923489 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 2.0933588372, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.0933588372, "unknown_bound_high": 2.0933588372 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 64.7056522944, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.7056522944, "unknown_bound_high": 64.7056522944 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 51.2853609302, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.2853609302, "unknown_bound_high": 51.2853609302 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-transatlantic-slave-removal-gold-coast-bights", "name": "Transatlantic enslavement and population removal from the Gold Coast and Bights of Benin and Biafra", "start": 1501, "end": 1866, "date_label": "1501–1866", "region": "Africa and the Atlantic", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "African and European slave-trading states, merchants, raiders, and shipowners" ], "victims": [ "Captives removed from the Gold Coast, Bight of Benin, and Bight of Biafra" ], "agent_countries": [ "Portugal", "Spain", "United Kingdom", "France", "Netherlands", "Denmark", "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "Ghana", "Togo", "Benin", "Burkina Faso", "Niger", "Nigeria", "Cameroon" ], "container_countries": [ "Ghana", "Togo", "Benin", "Burkina Faso", "Niger", "Nigeria", "Cameroon", "Portugal", "Spain", "United Kingdom", "France", "Netherlands", "Denmark", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Slave trading removed millions from West African societies and intensified warfare, captive-taking, insecurity, and migration far inland from the coast.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits forced removal from the most heavily trafficked West African embarkation zones.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Slave trading removed millions from West African societies and intensified warfare, captive-taking, insecurity, and migration far inland from the coast.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_transatlantic_slave_voyages", "title": "SlaveVoyages, Estimates of the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade, 1501–1866", "url": "https://www.slavevoyages.org/assessment/estimates" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 61.5810351714, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.5810351714, "unknown_bound_high": 61.5810351714 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 41.1147539776, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.1147539776, "unknown_bound_high": 41.1147539776 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 19.6223353119, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.6223353119, "unknown_bound_high": 19.6223353119 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 4.1867176745, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.1867176745, "unknown_bound_high": 4.1867176745 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.1083598844, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.1083598844, "unknown_bound_high": 68.1083598844 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 48.7709041295, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.7709041295, "unknown_bound_high": 48.7709041295 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-transatlantic-slave-removal-west-central", "name": "Transatlantic enslavement and population removal from west-central Africa", "start": 1501, "end": 1866, "date_label": "1501–1866", "region": "Africa and the Atlantic", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "Portuguese and Brazilian traders and allied African states, merchants, and raiders" ], "victims": [ "Captives removed through Kongo, Loango, and Angolan ports" ], "agent_countries": [ "Portugal", "Brazil" ], "victim_countries": [ "Angola", "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Republic of the Congo", "Gabon", "Central African Republic", "Zambia" ], "container_countries": [ "Angola", "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Republic of the Congo", "Gabon", "Central African Republic", "Zambia", "Portugal", "Brazil" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "West-central Africa supplied the largest regional share of captives carried across the Atlantic, with wars and trading networks displacing people far beyond the coast.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the largest Atlantic embarkation region and the removal and secondary displacement behind its ports.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "West-central Africa supplied the largest regional share of captives carried across the Atlantic, with wars and trading networks displacing people far beyond the coast.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_transatlantic_slave_voyages", "title": "SlaveVoyages, Estimates of the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade, 1501–1866", "url": "https://www.slavevoyages.org/assessment/estimates" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 40.2224242155, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.2224242155, "unknown_bound_high": 40.2224242155 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 41.5297831179, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.5297831179, "unknown_bound_high": 41.5297831179 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 34.2052911301, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.2052911301, "unknown_bound_high": 34.2052911301 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 8.0676683297, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0676683297, "unknown_bound_high": 8.0676683297 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 78.2330699222, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.2330699222, "unknown_bound_high": 78.2330699222 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 58.5867891304, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.5867891304, "unknown_bound_high": 58.5867891304 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-cabo-verde-colonial-population-formation", "name": "Colonization of Cabo Verde and forced formation of a slave society", "start": 1462, "end": 1878, "date_label": "1462–1878", "region": "Africa and the Atlantic", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "Portuguese crown, merchants, settlers, and slaveholders" ], "victims": [ "Enslaved West Africans transported to and through the previously uninhabited islands" ], "agent_countries": [ "Portugal" ], "victim_countries": [ "Cabo Verde", "Senegal", "Gambia", "Guinea", "Guinea-Bissau", "Sierra Leone" ], "container_countries": [ "Cabo Verde", "Portugal", "Senegal", "Gambia", "Guinea", "Guinea-Bissau", "Sierra Leone" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Portuguese settlers occupied previously uninhabited islands and imported enslaved Africans, making Cabo Verde a settlement, slave-trading, and creole society rather than an Indigenous-displacement case.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Cabo Verde had no precolonial resident population to displace, but its society was created by colonial settlement and coerced African transport, a necessary related circumstance.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Portuguese settlers occupied previously uninhabited islands and imported enslaved Africans, making Cabo Verde a settlement, slave-trading, and creole society rather than an Indigenous-displacement case.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_cabo_verde_colonization", "title": "Cabo Verde and Its Traditions in Context", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/songs-for-cabo-verde/cabo-verde-and-its-traditions-in-context/871C2497BF565D3375D1997A2D2DFBED" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 47.4227873586, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.4227873586, "unknown_bound_high": 47.4227873586 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 50.3965534995, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.3965534995, "unknown_bound_high": 50.3965534995 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.0596530405, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.0596530405, "unknown_bound_high": 72.0596530405 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 25.4463495327, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.4463495327, "unknown_bound_high": 25.4463495327 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 60.1543620609, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.1543620609, "unknown_bound_high": 60.1543620609 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 92.6242180459, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6242180459, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6242180459 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "af-sao-tome-plantation-slavery", "name": "Colonization of São Tomé and Príncipe and plantation slavery", "start": 1493, "end": 1876, "date_label": "1493–1876", "region": "Africa and the Atlantic", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "Portuguese crown, settlers, plantation owners, and merchants" ], "victims": [ "Enslaved Africans transported to the previously uninhabited islands" ], "agent_countries": [ "Portugal" ], "victim_countries": [ "São Tomé and Príncipe", "Benin", "Nigeria", "Cameroon", "Gabon", "Republic of the Congo", "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Angola" ], "container_countries": [ "São Tomé and Príncipe", "Portugal", "Benin", "Nigeria", "Cameroon", "Gabon", "Republic of the Congo", "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Angola" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Portuguese colonization transformed uninhabited islands into a sugar plantation complex populated largely by enslaved Africans and later contract workers.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The first tropical plantation economy is absent; it involved no displaced island population but did involve mass coerced settlement and enslavement.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Portuguese colonization transformed uninhabited islands into a sugar plantation complex populated largely by enslaved Africans and later contract workers.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_sao_tome_plantation", "title": "São Tomé and Príncipe: The First Plantation Economy in the Tropics", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/commercial-agriculture-the-slave-trade-and-slavery-in-atlantic-africa/sao-tome-and-principe-the-first-plantation-economy-in-the-tropics/52D008358F8C3EABF4F10DD5830933AA" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 47.4227873586, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.4227873586, "unknown_bound_high": 47.4227873586 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 64.0150231986, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.0150231986, "unknown_bound_high": 64.0150231986 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.9878468019, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.9878468019, "unknown_bound_high": 64.9878468019 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.0165136225, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.0165136225, "unknown_bound_high": 31.0165136225 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.7407540374, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.7407540374, "unknown_bound_high": 61.7407540374 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 53.80078785, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.80078785, "unknown_bound_high": 53.80078785 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "af-mascarene-seychelles-forced-population-formation", "name": "Colonial settlement, slavery, and indenture in the Mascarenes and Seychelles", "start": 1638, "end": 1920, "date_label": "1638–c. 1920", "region": "Africa and the Indian Ocean", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "Dutch, French, and British colonial states", "European plantation owners" ], "victims": [ "Enslaved Africans and Malagasy people", "Indian and other indentured laborers transported under coercive contracts" ], "agent_countries": [ "Netherlands", "France", "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Mauritius", "Réunion", "Seychelles", "Madagascar", "Mozambique", "India" ], "container_countries": [ "Mauritius", "Réunion", "Seychelles", "Madagascar", "Mozambique", "India", "Netherlands", "France", "United Kingdom" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Mauritius, Réunion, and Seychelles were permanently colonized only in the modern period and developed through imported enslaved and indentured labor. This is coerced population formation, not Indigenous replacement on the islands.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "These islands lacked Indigenous resident populations but were peopled through colonial slavery and indenture; omitting that distinction would make a country audit falsely appear blank.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Mauritius, Réunion, and Seychelles were permanently colonized only in the modern period and developed through imported enslaved and indentured labor. This is coerced population formation, not Indigenous replacement on the islands.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_mascarene_labor_migration", "title": "The Mascarenes, Indian Ocean Africa, and Global Labor Migration", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/african-islands/mascarenes-indian-ocean-africa-and-global-labor-migration-during-the-eighteenth-and-nineteenth-centuries/03CDB93A3DD66CA8F2E7666A7F14940C" }, { "id": "af_mauritius_indentured_labor", "title": "Colonial Medical Science and Indentured Labor in Mauritius", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/medical-history/article/first-recorded-outbreak-of-epidemic-dropsy-187780-climate-empire-and-colonial-medical-science-between-india-bengal-and-mauritius/9972FEBC197E1FE28C9549575B90E999" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 58.0339456738, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.0339456738, "unknown_bound_high": 58.0339456738 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 82.0691233323, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.0691233323, "unknown_bound_high": 82.0691233323 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 61.132326383, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.132326383, "unknown_bound_high": 61.132326383 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 10.5392104505, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.5392104505, "unknown_bound_high": 10.5392104505 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.2782226948, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.2782226948, "unknown_bound_high": 75.2782226948 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 90.2208759185, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.2208759185, "unknown_bound_high": 90.2208759185 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "af-french-settlement-morocco", "name": "French and Spanish colonial settlement and land transfer in Morocco", "start": 1912, "end": 1956, "date_label": "1912–1956", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "French and Spanish protectorate authorities", "European farmers, businesses, and urban settlers" ], "victims": [ "Moroccan communities whose collective, state-classified, or privately transferred land entered colonization projects" ], "agent_countries": [ "France", "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "Morocco" ], "container_countries": [ "Morocco", "France", "Spain" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Protectorate governments facilitated European agricultural and urban settlement through official colonization projects, expropriation of collective land, and private transfer under a coercive colonial order.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas includes neighboring Algeria but omits official colonization allotments, European in-migration, and land transfer under the Moroccan protectorates.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Protectorate governments facilitated European agricultural and urban settlement through official colonization projects, expropriation of collective land, and private transfer under a coercive colonial order.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_morocco_colonization", "title": "Levels of Legibility: State Information and French Colonization in Morocco", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/social-science-history/article/levels-of-legibility-roles-and-the-flow-of-state-information-in-french-morocco/1C233F231AC4987B32A90B0DC7DAF760" }, { "id": "qc_morocco_settler_land", "title": "Erdkunde, European settlement and agrarian transformation in colonial Morocco", "url": "https://www.erdkunde.uni-bonn.de/article/view/1921" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-french-settlement-morocco", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 64.4529005695, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.4529005695, "unknown_bound_high": 64.4529005695 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 82.1053810193, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.1053810193, "unknown_bound_high": 82.1053810193 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 56.7948405273, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.7948405273, "unknown_bound_high": 56.7948405273 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 18.8633990813, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.8633990813, "unknown_bound_high": 18.8633990813 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 39.3278259389, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.3278259389, "unknown_bound_high": 39.3278259389 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 18.1284936702, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1284936702, "unknown_bound_high": 18.1284936702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-french-settlement-tunisia", "name": "French protectorate land colonization and European settlement in Tunisia", "start": 1881, "end": 1956, "date_label": "1881–1956", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "French protectorate authorities", "French, Italian, and other European settlers and land companies" ], "victims": [ "Tunisian farmers, pastoralists, and communities losing land or access under colonial property policy" ], "agent_countries": [ "France", "Italy" ], "victim_countries": [ "Tunisia" ], "container_countries": [ "Tunisia", "France", "Italy" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "The protectorate facilitated European acquisition of productive land and built a racially stratified colonial economy; European settlement was smaller and less replacement-oriented than in Algeria but still materially dispossessive.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits Tunisia's substantial European settler population and colonial transfer of productive land.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The protectorate facilitated European acquisition of productive land and built a racially stratified colonial economy; European settlement was smaller and less replacement-oriented than in Algeria but still materially dispossessive.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_tunisia_colonial_land", "title": "Kenneth Perkins, A History of Modern Tunisia", "url": "https://assets.cambridge.org/97805210/09720/excerpt/9780521009720_excerpt.pdf" }, { "id": "qc_tunisia_european_settlement", "title": "French Colonial History, European settlers and land in colonial Tunisia", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1353/fch.2007.0003" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-french-settlement-tunisia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 59.038524318, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.038524318, "unknown_bound_high": 59.038524318 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 82.1053810193, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.1053810193, "unknown_bound_high": 82.1053810193 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 60.3307436466, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.3307436466, "unknown_bound_high": 60.3307436466 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 18.8633990813, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.8633990813, "unknown_bound_high": 18.8633990813 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 24.1215353802, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.1215353802, "unknown_bound_high": 24.1215353802 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 14.7712767635, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.7712767635, "unknown_bound_high": 14.7712767635 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-nubian-aswan-dam-displacement", "name": "Displacement of Nubians by the Aswan dams and reservoir", "start": 1902, "end": 1964, "date_label": "1902–1964", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "British colonial and Egyptian governments and dam authorities", "Sudanese authorities in the final resettlement" ], "victims": [ "Egyptian and Sudanese Nubian communities whose homeland was flooded or made uninhabitable" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Egypt", "Sudan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Egypt", "Sudan" ], "container_countries": [ "Egypt", "Sudan", "United Kingdom" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "egyptian-colonization-nubia", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Successive dams culminated in the 1964 removal of Egyptian Nubians to Kom Ombo and Sudanese Nubians to resettlement areas before their homeland was submerged beneath the reservoir.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The ancient Egyptian case does not capture twentieth-century state flooding and removal of Nubian communities.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Successive dams culminated in the 1964 removal of Egyptian Nubians to Kom Ombo and Sudanese Nubians to resettlement areas before their homeland was submerged beneath the reservoir.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_nubian_dam_displacement", "title": "Narratives of the Nubian Awakening: Reclaiming Egypt's African Identity", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781787442351.005" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.7263487331, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.7263487331, "unknown_bound_high": 87.7263487331 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 72.4352669957, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.4352669957, "unknown_bound_high": 72.4352669957 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 73.6480956277, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.6480956277, "unknown_bound_high": 73.6480956277 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.4265853707, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4265853707, "unknown_bound_high": 42.4265853707 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 80.0334574112, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.0334574112, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0334574112 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-sierra-leone-freetown-settler-colony", "name": "Freetown settler colony and dispossession of Temne land", "start": 1787, "end": 1896, "date_label": "1787–1896", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "British abolitionist and colonial institutions", "Black Poor, Nova Scotian, Maroon, and Liberated African settlers" ], "victims": [ "Temne and other peninsula communities whose land claims were displaced by colonial expansion" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Canada", "Jamaica", "United States", "Sierra Leone" ], "victim_countries": [ "Sierra Leone" ], "container_countries": [ "Sierra Leone", "United Kingdom", "Canada", "Jamaica", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "liberia", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "A British-sponsored settlement for formerly enslaved and displaced Black Atlantic populations expanded from Freetown across the peninsula through a prolonged process of land dispossession at the expense of Temne communities.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas includes the American Colonization Society project in Liberia but omits Britain's older Black settler colony and its land dispossession in Sierra Leone.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "A British-sponsored settlement for formerly enslaved and displaced Black Atlantic populations expanded from Freetown across the peninsula through a prolonged process of land dispossession at the expense of Temne communities.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_sierra_leone_settler_colony", "title": "Socioeconomic Status and Group Belonging in Colonial Sierra Leone", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/ssh.2021.47" }, { "id": "qc_freetown_land_dispossession", "title": "Social Science History, Freetown settlement and Indigenous land dispossession", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S014555322100047X/type/journal_article" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-sierra-leone-freetown-settler-colony", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 53.9042400889, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.9042400889, "unknown_bound_high": 53.9042400889 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 72.9908418268, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.9908418268, "unknown_bound_high": 72.9908418268 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.2904051782, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.2904051782, "unknown_bound_high": 83.2904051782 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 53.464723604, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.464723604, "unknown_bound_high": 53.464723604 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 41.0810404509, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.0810404509, "unknown_bound_high": 41.0810404509 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 56.4528700109, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.4528700109, "unknown_bound_high": 56.4528700109 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 } } }, { "event_id": "af-portuguese-settlement-angola", "name": "Portuguese settler land colonization in Angola", "start": 1900, "end": 1975, "date_label": "c. 1900–1975", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Portuguese colonial state, companies, and settlers" ], "victims": [ "African communities subjected to land alienation, forced labor, village concentration, and settler agriculture" ], "agent_countries": [ "Portugal" ], "victim_countries": [ "Angola" ], "container_countries": [ "Angola", "Portugal" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "angola-mozambique", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Twentieth-century Portuguese migration, concessions, forced labor, and state-backed land allocation created settler zones and displaced or subordinated African producers in Angola.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Angola and Mozambique were separate colonial land and labor systems; one shared case prevents country-level auditing and hides different settlement geographies.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Twentieth-century Portuguese migration, concessions, forced labor, and state-backed land allocation created settler zones and displaced or subordinated African producers in Angola.", "sources": [ { "id": "castelo", "title": "Castelo 2009", "url": "https://doi.org/10.4000/lerhistoria.1950" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-portuguese-settlement-angola", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 72.9697843572, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.9697843572, "unknown_bound_high": 72.9697843572 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 84.0366108237, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.0366108237, "unknown_bound_high": 84.0366108237 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 58.6525536921, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.6525536921, "unknown_bound_high": 58.6525536921 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 21.9109487069, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.9109487069, "unknown_bound_high": 21.9109487069 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 65.5715216838, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.5715216838, "unknown_bound_high": 65.5715216838 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 17.8865514683, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.8865514683, "unknown_bound_high": 17.8865514683 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "af-portuguese-settlement-mozambique", "name": "Portuguese concessions, settler agriculture, and forced labor in Mozambique", "start": 1890, "end": 1975, "date_label": "1890–1975", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Portuguese colonial state, chartered companies, plantation owners, and settlers" ], "victims": [ "Mozambican communities subjected to concession rule, land alienation, forced labor, and compulsory crop regimes" ], "agent_countries": [ "Portugal" ], "victim_countries": [ "Mozambique", "Malawi", "Zimbabwe", "South Africa" ], "container_countries": [ "Mozambique", "Portugal", "Malawi", "Zimbabwe", "South Africa" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "angola-mozambique", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Colonial authorities and companies converted extensive land into concessions and plantations, using taxation and forced labor to make African producers work for colonial enterprises and migrant-labor systems.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The current joint case erases Mozambique's chartered-company territories, plantation labor regimes, and distinct settlement pattern.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Colonial authorities and companies converted extensive land into concessions and plantations, using taxation and forced labor to make African producers work for colonial enterprises and migrant-labor systems.", "sources": [ { "id": "castelo", "title": "Castelo 2009", "url": "https://doi.org/10.4000/lerhistoria.1950" }, { "id": "af_mozambique_colonial_labor", "title": "Colonial State Formation, Tax Capacity and Labour Regimes in Portuguese Mozambique", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-review-of-social-history/article/colonial-state-formation-without-integration-tax-capacity-and-labour-regimes-in-portuguese-mozambique-1890s1970s/D10934ACA671BFEC0E15240A728A6401" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-portuguese-settlement-mozambique", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 66.6509060775, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.6509060775, "unknown_bound_high": 66.6509060775 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 81.0255716969, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.0255716969, "unknown_bound_high": 81.0255716969 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 52.3407769726, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.3407769726, "unknown_bound_high": 52.3407769726 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 19.5301631358, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.5301631358, "unknown_bound_high": 19.5301631358 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 53.2467196171, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.2467196171, "unknown_bound_high": 53.2467196171 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 9.984305364, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.984305364, "unknown_bound_high": 9.984305364 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "af-british-estates-malawi", "name": "British estate land alienation and thangata labor in Nyasaland", "start": 1891, "end": 1962, "date_label": "1891–1962", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "British protectorate authorities", "European estate owners and companies" ], "victims": [ "Malawian communities converted into tenants or removed from alienated estates" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Malawi" ], "container_countries": [ "Malawi", "United Kingdom" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Colonial recognition of European land claims converted large areas of southern Malawi into private estates; African residents paid rent through coerced labor known as colonial thangata and faced removals and land shortage.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits private-estate colonization and the conversion of a reciprocal labor institution into coerced rent labor on settler land.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Colonial recognition of European land claims converted large areas of southern Malawi into private estates; African residents paid rent through coerced labor known as colonial thangata and faced removals and land shortage.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_malawi_thangata", "title": "Thangata in Pre-Colonial and Colonial Systems of Land Tenure in Southern Malawi", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/africa/article/abs/thangata-in-precolonial-and-colonial-systems-of-land-tenure-in-southern-malawi-with-special-reference-to-chingale/D0948D4B83F2A04671BFDD0CE77BAFDC" }, { "id": "qc_malawi_thangata", "title": "Africa, Thangata in precolonial and colonial land tenure in southern Malawi", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/africa/article/abs/thangata-in-precolonial-and-colonial-systems-of-land-tenure-in-southern-malawi-with-special-reference-to-chingale/D0948D4B83F2A04671BFDD0CE77BAFDC" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-british-estates-malawi", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 53.1196259067, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.1196259067, "unknown_bound_high": 53.1196259067 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 74.7786624441, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.7786624441, "unknown_bound_high": 74.7786624441 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 49.4406142333, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.4406142333, "unknown_bound_high": 49.4406142333 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 12.601662855, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.601662855, "unknown_bound_high": 12.601662855 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 27.1948098375, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1948098375, "unknown_bound_high": 27.1948098375 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 32.3856383817, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.3856383817, "unknown_bound_high": 32.3856383817 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "af-eswatini-concession-partition", "name": "Concession conquest and land partition in Eswatini", "start": 1881, "end": 1910, "date_label": "1881–1910", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Boer and British concessionaires and colonial authorities", "Swazi royal intermediaries" ], "victims": [ "Swazi communities whose customary land was concessioned and partitioned" ], "agent_countries": [ "South Africa", "United Kingdom", "Eswatini" ], "victim_countries": [ "Eswatini" ], "container_countries": [ "Eswatini", "South Africa", "United Kingdom" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Foreign concession seekers acquired sweeping mineral and land claims; colonial partition converted much land into settler or company property and confined Swazi occupation to designated areas.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits concessions that purported to cover the whole country and the 1907 partition that reserved only a fraction for Swazi use.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Foreign concession seekers acquired sweeping mineral and land claims; colonial partition converted much land into settler or company property and confined Swazi occupation to designated areas.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_eswatini_concessions", "title": "Bonner, The Conquest by Concessions, 1886–1889", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511563027.013" }, { "id": "qc_eswatini_partition_law", "title": "Swaziland Concessions Partition Act, 1907", "url": "https://eswatinilii.org/akn/sz/act/1907/28/eng%401998-12-01" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-eswatini-concession-partition", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 64.2324928737, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.2324928737, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2324928737 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 77.1412126886, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.1412126886, "unknown_bound_high": 77.1412126886 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 55.7173940567, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.7173940567, "unknown_bound_high": 55.7173940567 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 16.7883805295, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7883805295, "unknown_bound_high": 16.7883805295 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 19.442667857, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.442667857, "unknown_bound_high": 19.442667857 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 34.7791240815, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.7791240815, "unknown_bound_high": 34.7791240815 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-italian-settlement-eritrea", "name": "Italian conquest, land appropriation, and settlement in Eritrea", "start": 1882, "end": 1941, "date_label": "1882–1941", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Italian colonial and Fascist states", "Italian soldiers, farmers, workers, and urban settlers" ], "victims": [ "Eritrean communities subjected to conquest, expropriation, racial rule, and colonial labor demands" ], "agent_countries": [ "Italy" ], "victim_countries": [ "Eritrea", "Ethiopia" ], "container_countries": [ "Eritrea", "Italy", "Ethiopia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Italy conquered Eritrea, appropriated land and infrastructure, and built a racially segregated colony with substantial urban and planned agricultural settlement, especially under Fascism.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "One of Fascist Italy's declared demographic colonies is absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Italy conquered Eritrea, appropriated land and infrastructure, and built a racially segregated colony with substantial urban and planned agricultural settlement, especially under Fascism.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_italian_east_africa", "title": "Radical Mercantilism and Fascist Italy’s East African Empire", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/business-history-review/article/radical-mercantilism-and-fascist-italys-east-african-empire/A994787E30E76B0D6129BC1ABF778B99" }, { "id": "qc_eritrea_colonisation", "title": "African Economic History Network, A Case of Its Own: Italy's Colonisation of Eritrea, 1890–1941", "url": "https://www.aehnetwork.org/working-papers/a-case-of-its-own-a-review-of-italys-colonisation-of-eritrea-1890-1941/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-italian-settlement-eritrea", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.3861063649, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.3861063649, "unknown_bound_high": 77.3861063649 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 71.4549916708, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.4549916708, "unknown_bound_high": 71.4549916708 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 51.6759896063, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.6759896063, "unknown_bound_high": 51.6759896063 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 23.385689245, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.385689245, "unknown_bound_high": 23.385689245 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.8147247441, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.8147247441, "unknown_bound_high": 42.8147247441 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 9.9645925087, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9645925087, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9645925087 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "af-italian-settlement-somalia", "name": "Italian settler plantations and land reservation in Somalia", "start": 1889, "end": 1941, "date_label": "1889–1941", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Italian colonial and Fascist states", "Italian settler farmers and concessionaires" ], "victims": [ "Somali riverine cultivators and subordinated farming communities whose land and labor were appropriated" ], "agent_countries": [ "Italy" ], "victim_countries": [ "Somalia" ], "container_countries": [ "Somalia", "Italy" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Colonial officials reserved riverine farmland and promoted Italian concessions and cooperative settler colonies, relying on coercive control of local land and labor.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits planned Italian agricultural colonies along the Shebelle and Juba and their reservation of cultivated land.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Colonial officials reserved riverine farmland and promoted Italian concessions and cooperative settler colonies, relying on coercive control of local land and labor.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_somalia_italian_settlement", "title": "I. M. Lewis, Somali Unification and the Italian East African Empire", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/modern-history-of-the-somali/somali-unification-the-italian-east-african-empire/77A64330A2E5C77D19988CF332E01ECA" }, { "id": "af_italian_east_africa", "title": "Radical Mercantilism and Fascist Italy’s East African Empire", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/business-history-review/article/radical-mercantilism-and-fascist-italys-east-african-empire/A994787E30E76B0D6129BC1ABF778B99" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-italian-settlement-somalia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 70.8082827772, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.8082827772, "unknown_bound_high": 70.8082827772 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 72.0512941053, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.0512941053, "unknown_bound_high": 72.0512941053 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 52.4912531965, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.4912531965, "unknown_bound_high": 52.4912531965 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 21.9109487069, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.9109487069, "unknown_bound_high": 21.9109487069 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.3808502277, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.3808502277, "unknown_bound_high": 52.3808502277 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 17.8865514683, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.8865514683, "unknown_bound_high": 17.8865514683 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-ethiopian-southern-conquest-neftenya", "name": "Menelik's southern conquests, land expropriation, and neftenya settlement", "start": 1875, "end": 1935, "date_label": "c. 1875–1935", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "The Shewan and Ethiopian imperial state", "Northern soldiers, officials, church institutions, and favored local intermediaries" ], "victims": [ "Oromo, Sidama, Wolayta, and other southern and western communities whose land and labor were subordinated" ], "agent_countries": [ "Ethiopia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Ethiopia" ], "container_countries": [ "Ethiopia", "Somalia", "Kenya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "oromo-expansion", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Menelik's state conquered southern and western polities, expropriated extensive land, allocated rights to soldiers and churches, founded garrison towns, and reduced many cultivators to tribute-paying tenants and laborers.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas narrates Oromo expansion but omits the later imperial conquest that expropriated southern land and planted garrisons, landlords, and towns.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Menelik's state conquered southern and western polities, expropriated extensive land, allocated rights to soldiers and churches, founded garrison towns, and reduced many cultivators to tribute-paying tenants and laborers.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_ethiopia_southern_conquest", "title": "Ethiopian State Formation and the Revolutionary Origins of EPRDF Dominance", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/ethiopias-developmental-state/ethiopian-state-formation-and-the-revolutionary-origins-of-eprdf-dominance/B289BE6923C0C6CBC67A288E31CCB1F3" }, { "id": "qc_ethiopia_menelik_dispossession", "title": "Nordic Journal of Human Rights, conquest, land alienation, and dispossession in southern Ethiopia", "url": "https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08039410.2021.1984305" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-ethiopian-southern-conquest-neftenya", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 78.1032817288, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.1032817288, "unknown_bound_high": 78.1032817288 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 73.7507155192, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.7507155192, "unknown_bound_high": 73.7507155192 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.6427116417, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.6427116417, "unknown_bound_high": 59.6427116417 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 23.355883775, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.355883775, "unknown_bound_high": 23.355883775 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 78.0337617372, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 78.0337617372 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 55.6331096022, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.6331096022, "unknown_bound_high": 55.6331096022 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-ethiopian-derg-resettlement-villagization", "name": "Derg resettlement and compulsory villagization in Ethiopia", "start": 1978, "end": 1991, "date_label": "1978–1991", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "The Derg government, military, and resettlement agencies" ], "victims": [ "Rural Ethiopians forcibly concentrated into villages", "Communities in western and southern receiving areas losing land to state farms or settlers" ], "agent_countries": [ "Ethiopia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Ethiopia", "Sudan", "Somalia" ], "container_countries": [ "Ethiopia", "Sudan", "Somalia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The Derg moved people into planned villages and transferred famine-affected northerners to western and southern regions, often coercively and with severe mortality, land, and host-community consequences.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a nationwide plan for coercive rural concentration and famine-era interregional resettlement.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The Derg moved people into planned villages and transferred famine-affected northerners to western and southern regions, often coercively and with severe mortality, land, and host-community consequences.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_ethiopia_villagization", "title": "Villagisation in Ethiopia's Arsi Region", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-modern-african-studies/article/abs/villagisation-in-ethiopias-arsi-region/4BDE27C95130D90F185B77FF5348FEA0" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.0469607786, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 96.0469607786, "unknown_bound_high": 96.0469607786 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 53.0917402421, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.0917402421, "unknown_bound_high": 53.0917402421 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 58.4062277779, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.4062277779, "unknown_bound_high": 58.4062277779 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 55.0084225065, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.0084225065, "unknown_bound_high": 55.0084225065 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 64.5122988652, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.5122988652, "unknown_bound_high": 64.5122988652 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 40.4587597761, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.4587597761, "unknown_bound_high": 40.4587597761 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-tanzania-operation-vijiji", "name": "Compulsory Ujamaa villagization in Tanzania", "start": 1973, "end": 1976, "date_label": "1973–1976", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "The Tanzanian state, party, and security apparatus" ], "victims": [ "Rural households forced from dispersed homes and farms into planned villages" ], "agent_countries": [ "Tanzania" ], "victim_countries": [ "Tanzania" ], "container_countries": [ "Tanzania" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After an initially voluntary phase, Operation Vijiji used compulsion to concentrate millions of rural Tanzanians into planned settlements, disrupting land rights, farming systems, and local residence.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits one of Africa's largest postcolonial forced-resettlement programs.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After an initially voluntary phase, Operation Vijiji used compulsion to concentrate millions of rural Tanzanians into planned settlements, disrupting land rights, farming systems, and local residence.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_tanzania_ujamaa", "title": "Lal, Militants, Mothers, and the National Family: Ujamaa in Tanzania", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021853710000010" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.76605374, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.76605374, "unknown_bound_high": 88.76605374 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 54.8196822934, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.8196822934, "unknown_bound_high": 54.8196822934 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 82.3145989456, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.3145989456, "unknown_bound_high": 82.3145989456 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 39.7703590559, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7703590559, "unknown_bound_high": 39.7703590559 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 35.0194717322, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.0194717322, "unknown_bound_high": 35.0194717322 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 49.7698840931, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.7698840931, "unknown_bound_high": 49.7698840931 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-uganda-asian-expulsion", "name": "Expulsion of Uganda's Asian population", "start": 1972, "end": 1972, "date_label": "1972", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Idi Amin's government and military" ], "victims": [ "Ugandan residents of South Asian descent, including citizens and British passport holders" ], "agent_countries": [ "Uganda" ], "victim_countries": [ "Uganda", "United Kingdom", "India", "Canada", "Kenya" ], "container_countries": [ "Uganda", "United Kingdom", "India", "Canada", "Kenya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Amin ordered Asians to leave within ninety days, extended the order across citizenship categories, and transferred extensive commercial and personal property to military and political beneficiaries.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a state expulsion coupled to confiscation and redistribution of businesses and homes.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Amin ordered Asians to leave within ninety days, extended the order across citizenship categories, and transferred extensive commercial and personal property to military and political beneficiaries.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_uganda_asian_expulsion", "title": "Re-Uniting Split Families: The 1972 Ugandan Asian Refugees", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/south-asia-unbound/reuniting-split-families-the-1972-ugandan-asian-refugees-and-the-internationalization-of-an-imperial-diaspora/A1CCDC5F5976196AD2880683444C38B3" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 69.2499026107, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.2499026107, "unknown_bound_high": 69.2499026107 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 71.7715745958, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.7715745958, "unknown_bound_high": 71.7715745958 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 90.4768577157, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.4768577157, "unknown_bound_high": 90.4768577157 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 31.7690373875, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.7690373875, "unknown_bound_high": 31.7690373875 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.8173581366, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.8173581366, "unknown_bound_high": 54.8173581366 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-rwanda-tutsi-expulsions", "name": "Anti-Tutsi violence, exile, and blocked return in Rwanda", "start": 1959, "end": 1973, "date_label": "1959–1973", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Hutu nationalist authorities, militias, and local actors in successive waves" ], "victims": [ "Rwandan Tutsi communities killed, dispossessed, or driven into exile" ], "agent_countries": [ "Rwanda" ], "victim_countries": [ "Rwanda", "Uganda", "Burundi", "Tanzania", "Democratic Republic of the Congo" ], "container_countries": [ "Rwanda", "Uganda", "Burundi", "Tanzania", "Democratic Republic of the Congo" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Violence during and after the revolution drove large numbers of Tutsi into neighboring states; exclusion from return produced a durable refugee population whose descendants later formed much of the RPF.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the refugee-producing expulsions that preceded the 1990 civil war and 1994 genocide.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Violence during and after the revolution drove large numbers of Tutsi into neighboring states; exclusion from return produced a durable refugee population whose descendants later formed much of the RPF.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_rwanda_displacement_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, The Rwandan Genocide and Its Aftermath", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/africa/sites/afr/files/legacy-pdf/3ebf9bb60.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 58.3544032792, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.3544032792, "unknown_bound_high": 58.3544032792 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 58.6028353789, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.6028353789, "unknown_bound_high": 58.6028353789 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 4.8563247688, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.8563247688, "unknown_bound_high": 4.8563247688 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 64.8100936612, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.8100936612, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8100936612 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 56.0602104355, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.0602104355, "unknown_bound_high": 56.0602104355 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 29.8225986346, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.8225986346, "unknown_bound_high": 29.8225986346 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-rwanda-genocide-exodus-return", "name": "Rwandan genocide, mass flight, and refugee return", "start": 1994, "end": 1998, "date_label": "1994–1998", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "The interim Rwandan government, armed forces, and Interahamwe during the genocide", "RPF forces and postwar authorities in documented abuses and return administration" ], "victims": [ "Tutsi and moderate Hutu victims of genocide", "Hutu civilians fleeing defeat, reprisals, or coercion", "Earlier Tutsi refugees returning to Rwanda" ], "agent_countries": [ "Rwanda" ], "victim_countries": [ "Rwanda", "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Tanzania", "Burundi", "Uganda", "Republic of the Congo", "Central African Republic", "Malawi", "Mozambique", "Zambia", "Zimbabwe", "Angola" ], "container_countries": [ "Rwanda", "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Tanzania", "Burundi", "Uganda", "Republic of the Congo", "Central African Republic", "Malawi", "Mozambique", "Zambia", "Zimbabwe", "Angola" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The genocide killed hundreds of thousands and uprooted roughly half the country. RPF victory sent more than two million people abroad while older Tutsi refugee populations returned, creating enormous and sometimes violent property and reintegration problems.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits genocide, the flight of more than two million people, the return of earlier refugees, and the resulting collision of home and land claims.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The genocide killed hundreds of thousands and uprooted roughly half the country. RPF victory sent more than two million people abroad while older Tutsi refugee populations returned, creating enormous and sometimes violent property and reintegration problems.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_rwanda_displacement_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, The Rwandan Genocide and Its Aftermath", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/africa/sites/afr/files/legacy-pdf/3ebf9bb60.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 63.9751516362, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.9751516362, "unknown_bound_high": 63.9751516362 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 58.8884750895, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.8884750895, "unknown_bound_high": 58.8884750895 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.9099243135, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.9099243135, "unknown_bound_high": 69.9099243135 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 34.5126115619, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.5126115619, "unknown_bound_high": 34.5126115619 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 90.0423984661, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.0423984661, "unknown_bound_high": 90.0423984661 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 63.5471820015, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.5471820015, "unknown_bound_high": 63.5471820015 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-chagos-forced-removal", "name": "Forced removal of the Chagossians for the Diego Garcia base", "start": 1965, "end": 1973, "date_label": "1965–1973", "region": "Africa and the Indian Ocean", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "The United Kingdom and United States governments" ], "victims": [ "Chagossian islanders removed to Mauritius and Seychelles and denied return" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "Chagos Archipelago/British Indian Ocean Territory", "Mauritius", "Seychelles" ], "container_countries": [ "Chagos Archipelago/British Indian Ocean Territory", "Mauritius", "Seychelles", "United Kingdom", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Britain detached the archipelago, prevented islanders from returning after travel, and forcibly removed the remaining population so the United States could build the Diego Garcia base.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "A complete removal of a settled island population for a foreign military base is absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Britain detached the archipelago, prevented islanders from returning after travel, and forcibly removed the remaining population so the United States could build the Diego Garcia base.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_chagos_displacement", "title": "Imperial Mobilities, Errantry, and the Displacement of the Chagos Islanders", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/review-of-international-studies/article/imperial-mobilities-errantry-and-the-displacement-of-the-chagos-islanders/AB9DFC1CA2E7BD0A98A5CE24FE7C4FE0" }, { "id": "qc_chagos_icj", "title": "International Court of Justice, Chagos advisory proceedings written statement", "url": "https://api.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/169/169-20180215-WRI-01-00-EN.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-chagos-forced-removal", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.2430146761, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.2430146761, "unknown_bound_high": 92.2430146761 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 54.5030907383, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.5030907383, "unknown_bound_high": 54.5030907383 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 53.0542798284, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.0542798284, "unknown_bound_high": 53.0542798284 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 91.8476397449, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.8476397449, "unknown_bound_high": 91.8476397449 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.2421124443, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.2421124443, "unknown_bound_high": 42.2421124443 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 57.1232137047, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.1232137047, "unknown_bound_high": 57.1232137047 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "af-bioko-colonial-plantations", "name": "Spanish plantation colonization and coerced labor on Bioko", "start": 1858, "end": 1968, "date_label": "1858–1968", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Spanish colonial authorities and planters", "Fernandino and European plantation elites", "Imported contract labor systems" ], "victims": [ "Bubi communities subjected to colonial rule and plantation land pressure", "Nigerian and continental African laborers recruited under coercive conditions" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain", "Equatorial Guinea" ], "victim_countries": [ "Equatorial Guinea", "Nigeria", "Liberia", "Cameroon" ], "container_countries": [ "Equatorial Guinea", "Spain", "Nigeria", "Liberia", "Cameroon" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Spanish rule made Bioko the center of a cocoa plantation economy, combining European and creole landholding with coerced or tightly controlled migrant labor and Bubi political marginalization.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits Bioko's plantation colony, Indigenous Bubi land pressure, and imported labor regime.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Spanish rule made Bioko the center of a cocoa plantation economy, combining European and creole landholding with coerced or tightly controlled migrant labor and Bubi political marginalization.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_bioko_colonial", "title": "Okenve, Bioko under Colonial Domination", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781787444874.005" }, { "id": "qc_bioko_colonial", "title": "African Islands, Bioko under colonial domination", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/african-islands/an-island-in-the-middle-of-everywhere-bioko-under-colonial-domination/46064AEDA0B814D5DA90B28EAF5DC801" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-bioko-colonial-plantations", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 60.4998613481, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.4998613481, "unknown_bound_high": 60.4998613481 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 76.851891178, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.851891178, "unknown_bound_high": 76.851891178 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.498943884, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.498943884, "unknown_bound_high": 50.498943884 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 42.1356492163, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.1356492163, "unknown_bound_high": 42.1356492163 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 69.4157503673, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.4157503673, "unknown_bound_high": 69.4157503673 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 24.4833922775, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.4833922775, "unknown_bound_high": 24.4833922775 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "af-cote-ivoire-migrant-land-expulsions", "name": "Xenophobic land expulsions in Côte d’Ivoire's plantation frontier", "start": 1998, "end": 2011, "date_label": "1998–2011", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Ivorian nationalist authorities, militias, and local autochthony movements" ], "victims": [ "Burkinabè and other migrant farmers and their Ivorian-born descendants expelled from land" ], "agent_countries": [ "Côte d’Ivoire" ], "victim_countries": [ "Côte d’Ivoire", "Burkina Faso", "Mali" ], "container_countries": [ "Côte d’Ivoire", "Burkina Faso", "Mali" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "As land scarcity and nationalist politics intensified, legal and customary claims were recast around autochthony, and Burkinabè and other migrant farmers were expelled from land in episodes linked to the civil conflict.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits postcolonial plantation-frontier conflict in which former state-supported migrants were recast as foreigners and expelled.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "As land scarcity and nationalist politics intensified, legal and customary claims were recast around autochthony, and Burkinabè and other migrant farmers were expelled from land in episodes linked to the civil conflict.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_cote_ivoire_land_expulsions", "title": "The Crisis of Public Policies in Côte d'Ivoire: Land Law and the Nationality Trap", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/africa/article/crisis-of-public-policies-in-cote-divoire-land-law-and-the-nationality-trap-in-tabous-rural-communities/C2C9B771110957C7A5FA2BFF34EC6A8A" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 40.5617961193, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.5617961193, "unknown_bound_high": 40.5617961193 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 72.464353132, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.464353132, "unknown_bound_high": 72.464353132 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 6.7140379336, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.7140379336, "unknown_bound_high": 6.7140379336 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.8176364651, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.8176364651, "unknown_bound_high": 26.8176364651 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 35.303437389, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.303437389, "unknown_bound_high": 35.303437389 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 50.7882901264, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.7882901264, "unknown_bound_high": 50.7882901264 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-merina-imperial-expansion", "name": "Merina imperial conquest, forced labor, and enslavement across Madagascar", "start": 1790, "end": 1895, "date_label": "c. 1790–1895", "region": "Africa and the Indian Ocean", "mechanism": "conquest without substantial settlement", "agents": [ "The Merina monarchy, army, officials, and allied elites" ], "victims": [ "Betsimisaraka, Sakalava, Betsileo, and other communities subjected to conquest, forced labor, enslavement, or population loss" ], "agent_countries": [ "Madagascar" ], "victim_countries": [ "Madagascar" ], "container_countries": [ "Madagascar", "Mauritius", "Réunion" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The Merina state attempted to build an island empire through military conquest, tribute, enslavement, and forced labor. Its demographic damage was severe, but evidence for broad settler replacement is weaker than for imperial extraction and subordination.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits Madagascar's internal imperial expansion and coercive demographic effects while it includes less consequential elite conquests elsewhere.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The Merina state attempted to build an island empire through military conquest, tribute, enslavement, and forced labor. Its demographic damage was severe, but evidence for broad settler replacement is weaker than for imperial extraction and subordination.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_madagascar_merina", "title": "Campbell, An Economic History of Imperial Madagascar, 1750–1895", "url": "https://assets.cambridge.org/052183/9351/frontmatter/0521839351_frontmatter.htm" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.3266564484, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.3266564484, "unknown_bound_high": 83.3266564484 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 46.4337234094, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.4337234094, "unknown_bound_high": 46.4337234094 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 37.9433173844, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.9433173844, "unknown_bound_high": 37.9433173844 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 11.9780808944, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.9780808944, "unknown_bound_high": 11.9780808944 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 81.6225097174, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.6225097174, "unknown_bound_high": 81.6225097174 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.59307934, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.59307934, "unknown_bound_high": 59.59307934 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-gibraltar-conquest-population-replacement", "name": "Anglo-Dutch capture of Gibraltar, Spanish exodus, and new colonial population", "start": 1704, "end": 1800, "date_label": "1704–c. 1800", "region": "Europe and the Mediterranean", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Anglo-Dutch forces and the British garrison and colonial state", "Incoming British, Genoese, Jewish, Maltese, Moroccan, Portuguese, and other civilians" ], "victims": [ "Most of Gibraltar's Spanish residents, who left after the conquest" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Netherlands" ], "victim_countries": [ "Gibraltar", "Spain" ], "container_countries": [ "Gibraltar", "Spain", "United Kingdom", "Netherlands", "Morocco", "Malta", "Portugal" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After Anglo-Dutch capture, fewer than one hundred Spanish residents remained. British military occupation and immigration from around the Mediterranean formed a new civilian community whose descendants developed a distinct Gibraltarian identity.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a European territorial conquest followed by the departure of nearly all prior residents and formation of a new multiethnic colonial population.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After Anglo-Dutch capture, fewer than one hundred Spanish residents remained. British military occupation and immigration from around the Mediterranean formed a new civilian community whose descendants developed a distinct Gibraltarian identity.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_gibraltar_settlement", "title": "Gold, A Stone in Spain's Shoe: Introduction", "url": "https://doi.org/10.5949/UPO9781846317262.001" }, { "id": "qc_gibraltar_census", "title": "Government of Gibraltar, Census of Gibraltar 1970 historical population account", "url": "https://www.gibraltar.gov.gi/new/sites/default/files/HMGoG_Documents/Statistics/Downloads/Census_of_Gibraltar_1970.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "eu-gibraltar-conquest-population-replacement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.1492556975, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.1492556975, "unknown_bound_high": 79.1492556975 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 58.5669617439, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.5669617439, "unknown_bound_high": 58.5669617439 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 67.2836251921, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.2836251921, "unknown_bound_high": 67.2836251921 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 86.162780973, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.162780973, "unknown_bound_high": 86.162780973 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 28.2124890884, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.2124890884, "unknown_bound_high": 28.2124890884 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 82.8352375368, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.8352375368, "unknown_bound_high": 82.8352375368 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "am-spanish-conquest-congregacion-mesoamerica", "name": "Spanish conquest, settler land transfer, and congregación in Mesoamerica", "start": 1519, "end": 1700, "date_label": "1519–c. 1700", "region": "Latin America and the Caribbean", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Spanish crown, conquistadors, settlers, religious orders, and allied Indigenous forces" ], "victims": [ "Indigenous communities subjected to conquest, epidemic collapse, forced town concentration, labor drafts, tribute, and settler land encroachment" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "Mexico", "Guatemala", "Belize", "El Salvador", "Honduras", "Nicaragua", "Costa Rica", "Panama" ], "container_countries": [ "Spain", "Mexico", "Guatemala", "Belize", "El Salvador", "Honduras", "Nicaragua", "Costa Rica", "Panama" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "spanish-caribbean | spanish-northern-borderlands", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Conquest and disease shattered existing polities; colonial authorities concentrated surviving populations into grid towns, imposed encomienda and labor demands, and enabled Spanish estates, ranches, mines, and cities to take land. Indigenous communities persisted and used colonial law, so the result was not simple extinction or total replacement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas skips the central Spanish-American conquest and settlement system between the Caribbean and northern borderlands.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Conquest and disease shattered existing polities; colonial authorities concentrated surviving populations into grid towns, imposed encomienda and labor demands, and enabled Spanish estates, ranches, mines, and cities to take land. Indigenous communities persisted and used colonial law, so the result was not simple extinction or total replacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "am_spanish_mexico_congregacion", "title": "Taking the Courts to the Fields: Law, Violence, and Agrarian Custom in Colonial Oaxaca", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/law-and-history-review/article/taking-the-courts-to-the-fields-law-violence-and-agrarian-custom-in-colonial-oaxaca-mexico/C5590BBC8F02C0906250110E785C2BB2" }, { "id": "qc_mesoamerica_congregacion", "title": "Investigaciones Geográficas, congregación and territorial reorganization in colonial Mexico", "url": "https://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?pid=S0188-46112006000200009&script=sci_arttext" } ], "rendered_case_id": "am-spanish-conquest-congregacion-mesoamerica", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 63.1893766172, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.1893766172, "unknown_bound_high": 63.1893766172 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 76.410952916, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.410952916, "unknown_bound_high": 76.410952916 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 51.3341545193, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.3341545193, "unknown_bound_high": 51.3341545193 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 29.7804941652, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.7804941652, "unknown_bound_high": 29.7804941652 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 80.2016540851, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.2016540851, "unknown_bound_high": 80.2016540851 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 66.4127258101, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.4127258101, "unknown_bound_high": 66.4127258101 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "am-spanish-conquest-reduccion-andes", "name": "Spanish conquest, reducciones, and colonial land-labor order in the Andes", "start": 1532, "end": 1700, "date_label": "1532–c. 1700", "region": "Latin America and the Caribbean", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Spanish crown, conquistadors, settlers, religious orders, mine and estate owners" ], "victims": [ "Andean communities subjected to conquest, epidemic collapse, forced resettlement, mita labor, tribute, and land appropriation" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "Peru", "Bolivia", "Ecuador", "Colombia", "Chile", "Argentina" ], "container_countries": [ "Spain", "Peru", "Bolivia", "Ecuador", "Colombia", "Chile", "Argentina" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "inca-mitma | spanish-caribbean", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Spanish rule concentrated dispersed Andean settlements into reducciones, mobilized labor for mines and estates, transferred land, and established durable settler institutions. Indigenous survival and legal adaptation do not negate forced relocation and dispossession.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas includes Inca state resettlement and Spain's Caribbean destruction but omits the colonial reducciones, mines, estates, and settler cities of the Andes.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Spanish rule concentrated dispersed Andean settlements into reducciones, mobilized labor for mines and estates, transferred land, and established durable settler institutions. Indigenous survival and legal adaptation do not negate forced relocation and dispossession.", "sources": [ { "id": "am_spanish_andean_reduccion", "title": "Torata Alta: An Inka Administrative Center and Spanish Colonial Reduccion", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/latin-american-antiquity/article/abs/torata-alta-an-inka-administrative-center-and-spanish-colonial-reduccion-in-moquegua-peru/A1CF32147D16FB6EBEABB6EEDC7E313B" }, { "id": "qc_andes_reduccion", "title": "Environment and Planning D, Spanish reducciones and Andean spatial reorganization", "url": "https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/d348t" } ], "rendered_case_id": "am-spanish-conquest-reduccion-andes", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 73.5468045684, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.5468045684, "unknown_bound_high": 73.5468045684 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 84.0366108237, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.0366108237, "unknown_bound_high": 84.0366108237 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 56.3129502165, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.3129502165, "unknown_bound_high": 56.3129502165 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 30.2843840558, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2843840558, "unknown_bound_high": 30.2843840558 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 87.1403291404, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.1403291404, "unknown_bound_high": 87.1403291404 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 64.4990869135, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.4990869135, "unknown_bound_high": 64.4990869135 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "am-dutch-guiana-plantation-colonization", "name": "Dutch plantation colonization, Indigenous war, and slavery in the Guianas", "start": 1650, "end": 1863, "date_label": "c. 1650–1863", "region": "Latin America and the Caribbean", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Dutch and earlier English colonial companies and settlers", "Plantation owners and colonial militias" ], "victims": [ "Kalinago/Carib and Lokono/Arawak communities displaced by plantation expansion", "Enslaved Africans transported to work plantations", "Maroon communities attacked by colonial forces" ], "agent_countries": [ "Netherlands", "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Suriname", "Guyana", "French Guiana", "Ghana", "Benin", "Nigeria", "Angola", "Democratic Republic of the Congo" ], "container_countries": [ "Netherlands", "United Kingdom", "Suriname", "Guyana", "French Guiana", "Ghana", "Benin", "Nigeria", "Angola", "Democratic Republic of the Congo" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "English and Dutch settlers expanded plantations through Indigenous territory, fought an Indigenous war, and built a population and economy overwhelmingly through enslaved African labor; escaped captives established autonomous Maroon communities in the interior.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the Guianas' settler plantations, war against Indigenous residents, mass importation of enslaved Africans, and Maroon counter-settlement.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "English and Dutch settlers expanded plantations through Indigenous territory, fought an Indigenous war, and built a population and economy overwhelmingly through enslaved African labor; escaped captives established autonomous Maroon communities in the interior.", "sources": [ { "id": "am_suriname_plantation", "title": "The Okanisi: A Surinamese Maroon Community, c. 1712–2010", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-review-of-social-history/article/okanisi-a-surinamese-maroon-community-c17122010/FEB980D8422F82D4154CEFAE020DAA04" }, { "id": "qc_dutch_guiana", "title": "Cornell Scholarship Online, Dutch Guiana plantation society and slavery", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/cornell-scholarship-online/book/19035/chapter-abstract/177425275" } ], "rendered_case_id": "am-dutch-guiana-plantation-colonization", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 51.5524929436, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.5524929436, "unknown_bound_high": 51.5524929436 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 79.9075782775, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.9075782775, "unknown_bound_high": 79.9075782775 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 56.8991826214, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.8991826214, "unknown_bound_high": 56.8991826214 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.5564416091, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.5564416091, "unknown_bound_high": 60.5564416091 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 83.5970486361, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.5970486361, "unknown_bound_high": 83.5970486361 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.341555329, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.341555329, "unknown_bound_high": 77.341555329 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "am-garifuna-deportation-st-vincent", "name": "British deportation of the Garifuna from Saint Vincent", "start": 1796, "end": 1797, "date_label": "1796–1797", "region": "Latin America and the Caribbean", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "British colonial forces and authorities" ], "victims": [ "Garifuna/Black Carib people defeated, confined, and deported to Roatán" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Saint Vincent and the Grenadines", "Honduras", "Belize", "Guatemala", "Nicaragua" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Saint Vincent and the Grenadines", "Honduras", "Belize", "Guatemala", "Nicaragua" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "british-atlantic-colonies", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After defeating Garifuna resistance, Britain deported survivors from Saint Vincent to Roatán. Garifuna communities then established settlements along the Caribbean coasts of Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and Nicaragua.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "A broad British Atlantic entry hides the targeted removal that created the Garifuna diaspora along Central America's Caribbean coast.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After defeating Garifuna resistance, Britain deported survivors from Saint Vincent to Roatán. Garifuna communities then established settlements along the Caribbean coasts of Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and Nicaragua.", "sources": [ { "id": "am_garifuna_deportation", "title": "Race and Natural Resource Conflicts in Honduras: Miskito and Garifuna", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/2D52755E7AA321061C7CC0E31F91F3DF/S0023879100019890a.pdf/race_and_natural_resource_conflicts_in_honduras_the_miskito_and_garifuna_struggle_for_lasa_pulan.pdf" }, { "id": "qc_garifuna_deportation", "title": "Latin American Antiquity, cultural interaction and Garifuna history in the Windward Islands", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/F57E4C86854638C17A5EA612D5634D98/S1045663521001024a.pdf/reimagining_creolization_the_deep_history_of_cultural_interactions_in_the_windward_islands_lesser_antilles_through_the_lens_of_material_culture.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "am-garifuna-deportation-st-vincent", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.8859810455, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.8859810455, "unknown_bound_high": 79.8859810455 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 83.7976451577, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.7976451577, "unknown_bound_high": 83.7976451577 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 51.0472639368, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.0472639368, "unknown_bound_high": 51.0472639368 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 90.1158606805, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.1158606805, "unknown_bound_high": 90.1158606805 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 77.3055395152, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.3055395152, "unknown_bound_high": 77.3055395152 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 67.1717815377, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.1717815377, "unknown_bound_high": 67.1717815377 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "am-french-saint-domingue-plantation-colony", "name": "French settler plantation colony and slavery in Saint-Domingue", "start": 1659, "end": 1804, "date_label": "1659–1804", "region": "Latin America and the Caribbean", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "French crown, settlers, plantation owners, and colonial troops" ], "victims": [ "Taíno survivors and neighboring Indigenous communities", "Enslaved Africans transported into lethal plantation labor" ], "agent_countries": [ "France" ], "victim_countries": [ "Haiti", "Dominican Republic", "Benin", "Nigeria", "Ghana", "Angola", "Democratic Republic of the Congo" ], "container_countries": [ "France", "Haiti", "Dominican Republic", "Benin", "Nigeria", "Ghana", "Angola", "Democratic Republic of the Congo" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "spanish-caribbean", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "France and its settlers seized western Hispaniola and imported hundreds of thousands of enslaved Africans into an extraordinarily lethal sugar and coffee plantation system; the Haitian Revolution destroyed settler rule and slavery.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas ends Hispaniola's colonization in the Spanish sixteenth century and omits the later French settler-slave regime that made western Hispaniola the Atlantic's most intensive plantation colony.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "France and its settlers seized western Hispaniola and imported hundreds of thousands of enslaved Africans into an extraordinarily lethal sugar and coffee plantation system; the Haitian Revolution destroyed settler rule and slavery.", "sources": [ { "id": "am_suriname_plantation", "title": "The Okanisi: A Surinamese Maroon Community, c. 1712–2010", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-review-of-social-history/article/okanisi-a-surinamese-maroon-community-c17122010/FEB980D8422F82D4154CEFAE020DAA04" }, { "id": "qc_saint_domingue", "title": "Law and Social Inquiry, law and slavery in French Saint-Domingue", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/law-and-social-inquiry/article/across-oceans-and-revolutions-law-and-slavery-in-french-saintdomingue-and-beyond/BA08291DB21FA307380AE6B457B2C8F0" } ], "rendered_case_id": "am-french-saint-domingue-plantation-colony", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 53.1587689663, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.1587689663, "unknown_bound_high": 53.1587689663 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 87.4262549804, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.4262549804, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4262549804 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 58.5179575443, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.5179575443, "unknown_bound_high": 58.5179575443 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 59.8790396424, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.8790396424, "unknown_bound_high": 59.8790396424 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 64.3566889429, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.3566889429, "unknown_bound_high": 64.3566889429 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 22.6308726104, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.6308726104, "unknown_bound_high": 22.6308726104 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-kashmir-partition-war-displacement", "name": "Kashmir partition wars and cross-Line-of-Control displacement", "start": 1947, "end": 2003, "date_label": "1947–2003", "region": "South Asia", "mechanism": "population exchange/partition", "agents": [ "Indian and Pakistani states and armed forces", "Kashmiri militias and armed groups in different phases" ], "victims": [ "Muslim, Hindu, Sikh, and other civilians displaced across and within divided Kashmir" ], "agent_countries": [ "India", "Pakistan" ], "victim_countries": [ "India", "Pakistan", "Kashmir (cross-border)" ], "container_countries": [ "India", "Pakistan", "Kashmir (cross-border)" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "The 1947 partition war, later wars, insurgency, and artillery exchanges displaced communities across both sides of the Line of Control. The event must not collapse distinct episodes or assign one-sided responsibility.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits repeated partition-war displacement across a territory that remains divided and disputed.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The 1947 partition war, later wars, insurgency, and artillery exchanges displaced communities across both sides of the Line of Control. The event must not collapse distinct episodes or assign one-sided responsibility.", "sources": [ { "id": "asia_kashmir_displacement", "title": "Barricaded Kashmiri Pandits: Letting Go the Right to Return?", "url": "https://doi.org/10.7135/UPO9781843317784.032" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 69.7526650583, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.7526650583, "unknown_bound_high": 69.7526650583 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 82.6618327122, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.6618327122, "unknown_bound_high": 82.6618327122 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 77.998588494, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.998588494, "unknown_bound_high": 77.998588494 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 59.6736055256, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.6736055256, "unknown_bound_high": 59.6736055256 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.3606000592, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.3606000592, "unknown_bound_high": 62.3606000592 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 65.7276272134, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.7276272134, "unknown_bound_high": 65.7276272134 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-kashmiri-pandit-exodus", "name": "Exodus of Kashmiri Pandits from the Kashmir Valley", "start": 1989, "end": 1991, "date_label": "1989–1991", "region": "South Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Militant organizations, armed actors, and a climate of targeted threat and state breakdown" ], "victims": [ "Kashmiri Pandits and other civilians forced from the Valley" ], "agent_countries": [ "India", "Pakistan" ], "victim_countries": [ "India", "Kashmir (cross-border)" ], "container_countries": [ "India", "Pakistan", "Kashmir (cross-border)" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Selective killings, threats, insurgency, and collapse of public order drove most Pandits from the Kashmir Valley to Jammu, Delhi, and elsewhere. Causal responsibility and state conduct remain politically contested, but the forced displacement is well established.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the near-total departure of a long-established minority and its unresolved return and property claims.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Selective killings, threats, insurgency, and collapse of public order drove most Pandits from the Kashmir Valley to Jammu, Delhi, and elsewhere. Causal responsibility and state conduct remain politically contested, but the forced displacement is well established.", "sources": [ { "id": "asia_kashmir_displacement", "title": "Barricaded Kashmiri Pandits: Letting Go the Right to Return?", "url": "https://doi.org/10.7135/UPO9781843317784.032" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 40.1671654933, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.1671654933, "unknown_bound_high": 40.1671654933 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 16.0493144488, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.0493144488, "unknown_bound_high": 16.0493144488 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 85.4812062201, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.4812062201, "unknown_bound_high": 85.4812062201 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 32.2920045781, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8377125375, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.051417095, "unknown_bound_high": 43.2801633484 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.4677749518, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.4677749518, "unknown_bound_high": 59.4677749518 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-partition-india-pakistan-1947", "name": "Partition of British India and reciprocal mass expulsion", "start": 1947, "end": 1951, "date_label": "1947–1951", "region": "South Asia", "mechanism": "population exchange/partition", "agents": [ "British imperial partition authorities", "Indian and Pakistani states", "Hindu, Sikh, and Muslim militias and local actors" ], "victims": [ "Muslims expelled or fleeing from India", "Hindus and Sikhs expelled or fleeing from Pakistan", "Minorities who remained amid violence and property seizure" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "India", "Pakistan" ], "victim_countries": [ "India", "Pakistan", "Bangladesh" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "India", "Pakistan", "Bangladesh" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Partition triggered reciprocal massacres, coerced flight, and state-organized refugee rehabilitation across new borders. Millions crossed in both directions, and abandoned urban and rural property was reassigned to incoming refugees.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the largest rapid population exchange of the twentieth century and the accompanying property redistribution and refugee settlement.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Partition triggered reciprocal massacres, coerced flight, and state-organized refugee rehabilitation across new borders. Millions crossed in both directions, and abandoned urban and rural property was reassigned to incoming refugees.", "sources": [ { "id": "asia_partition_1947_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, State of the World's Refugees: Decolonization in South Asia", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/in/sites/en-in/files/legacy-pdf/3ebf9bab0.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 63.178460155, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.178460155, "unknown_bound_high": 63.178460155 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 85.6105386069, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.6105386069, "unknown_bound_high": 85.6105386069 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 78.9179224264, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.9179224264, "unknown_bound_high": 78.9179224264 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 82.6230458185, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.6230458185, "unknown_bound_high": 82.6230458185 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.3034134958, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.3034134958, "unknown_bound_high": 58.3034134958 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.6379035723, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.6379035723, "unknown_bound_high": 77.6379035723 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-rohingya-expulsions", "name": "Denationalization, military clearance, and expulsion of the Rohingya", "start": 1978, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1978–present", "region": "South and Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Myanmar military and security forces", "Myanmar governments and local armed actors" ], "victims": [ "Rohingya communities stripped of citizenship, confined, attacked, and driven from Rakhine State" ], "agent_countries": [ "Myanmar" ], "victim_countries": [ "Myanmar", "Bangladesh", "India", "Malaysia", "Thailand", "Indonesia" ], "container_countries": [ "Myanmar", "Bangladesh", "India", "Malaysia", "Thailand", "Indonesia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Citizenship exclusion, movement restrictions, repeated military operations, mass violence, and village destruction have driven successive Rohingya refugee waves, culminating in the 2017 clearance into Bangladesh and continued inability to return safely.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits repeated state-driven Rohingya expulsions, including the 2017 destruction of villages and flight of more than 750,000 people.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Citizenship exclusion, movement restrictions, repeated military operations, mass violence, and village destruction have driven successive Rohingya refugee waves, culminating in the 2017 clearance into Bangladesh and continued inability to return safely.", "sources": [ { "id": "asia_rohingya_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Rohingya Emergency", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/emergencies/rohingya-emergency" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.8288010032, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.8288010032, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8288010032 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 60.9705069049, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.9705069049, "unknown_bound_high": 60.9705069049 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 55.0761946007, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.0761946007, "unknown_bound_high": 55.0761946007 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 62.9509555286, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.9509555286, "unknown_bound_high": 62.9509555286 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.2742828246, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.2742828246, "unknown_bound_high": 68.2742828246 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 73.1231220228, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.1231220228, "unknown_bound_high": 73.1231220228 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-bhutan-lhotshampa-expulsion", "name": "Expulsion of Lhotshampa from Bhutan", "start": 1988, "end": 1993, "date_label": "1988–1993", "region": "South Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "The Bhutanese government, security forces, and citizenship administration" ], "victims": [ "Nepali-speaking Lhotshampa stripped of status, coerced to leave, or fleeing repression" ], "agent_countries": [ "Bhutan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Bhutan", "Nepal", "India", "United States", "Canada", "Australia" ], "container_countries": [ "Bhutan", "Nepal", "India", "United States", "Canada", "Australia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Citizenship rules and the 1988 census recast long-established Nepali-speaking residents as illegal migrants. Repression and coercion drove tens of thousands into Nepal, where protracted camps ultimately led to third-country resettlement rather than return.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits citizenship engineering, coercive census classification, repression, and removal of a large share of Bhutan's southern population.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Citizenship rules and the 1988 census recast long-established Nepali-speaking residents as illegal migrants. Repression and coercion drove tens of thousands into Nepal, where protracted camps ultimately led to third-country resettlement rather than return.", "sources": [ { "id": "asia_bhutan_lhotshampa", "title": "A Matter of Ethnicity: The Bhutanese Refugee Problem", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/fleeing-people-of-south-asia/matter-of-ethnicity/86458FBC4A097AAB79AAA25BA679601C" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.4353889176, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.4353889176, "unknown_bound_high": 93.4353889176 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 63.9308666155, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.9308666155, "unknown_bound_high": 63.9308666155 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 63.5730847447, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.5730847447, "unknown_bound_high": 63.5730847447 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.5989171421, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.5989171421, "unknown_bound_high": 60.5989171421 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 51.0667450382, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.0667450382, "unknown_bound_high": 51.0667450382 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75.5632250695, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.5632250695, "unknown_bound_high": 75.5632250695 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-khmer-rouge-forced-evacuation", "name": "Khmer Rouge urban evacuation and forced rural resettlement", "start": 1975, "end": 1979, "date_label": "1975–1979", "region": "Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "The Khmer Rouge government and armed forces" ], "victims": [ "Urban residents expelled to the countryside", "Ethnic, religious, class, and political groups targeted for execution and forced labor" ], "agent_countries": [ "Cambodia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Cambodia", "Thailand", "Vietnam" ], "container_countries": [ "Cambodia", "Thailand", "Vietnam" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The Khmer Rouge emptied Phnom Penh and other towns, classified people by revolutionary status, and moved the population into compulsory agricultural labor. Starvation, execution, disease, and repeated transfer killed nearly two million people.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the gunpoint emptying of cities, compulsory labor-site relocation, and genocide under Democratic Kampuchea.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The Khmer Rouge emptied Phnom Penh and other towns, classified people by revolutionary status, and moved the population into compulsory agricultural labor. Starvation, execution, disease, and repeated transfer killed nearly two million people.", "sources": [ { "id": "asia_cambodia_ushmm", "title": "United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, Cambodia 1975–1979", "url": "https://main.ushmm.org/information/exhibitions/museum-exhibitions/cambodia-1975" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.6482528547, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.6482528547, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6482528547 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.070652406, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.070652406, "unknown_bound_high": 52.070652406 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 65.6335657583, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.6335657583, "unknown_bound_high": 65.6335657583 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.1507524353, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.1507524353, "unknown_bound_high": 43.1507524353 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 88.1906714562, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.1906714562, "unknown_bound_high": 88.1906714562 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 7.1804570992, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 7.1804570992 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-indonesian-occupation-timor-leste", "name": "Indonesian occupation, forced resettlement, and removals from Timor-Leste", "start": 1975, "end": 1999, "date_label": "1975–1999", "region": "Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "The Indonesian state and armed forces", "Indonesian civilian migrants under occupation-era policy" ], "victims": [ "Timorese civilians killed, displaced into controlled settlements, forcibly transported, or removed as children" ], "agent_countries": [ "Indonesia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Timor-Leste", "Indonesia", "Portugal" ], "container_countries": [ "Timor-Leste", "Indonesia", "Portugal" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "indonesian-transmigration", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Occupation forces repeatedly uprooted Timorese civilians into controlled settlements, generated famine and mass death, removed children to Indonesia, and transported many displaced people out of the territory during the 1999 destruction campaign.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The general transmigration case does not capture military occupation, forced concentration, famine, child removal, and the 1999 deportations from Timor-Leste.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Occupation forces repeatedly uprooted Timorese civilians into controlled settlements, generated famine and mass death, removed children to Indonesia, and transported many displaced people out of the territory during the 1999 destruction campaign.", "sources": [ { "id": "asia_timor_children_un", "title": "UN Working Group allegation on children forcibly removed from Timor-Leste", "url": "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4096775/files/A_HRC_WGEID_137_1-EN.pdf" }, { "id": "qc_timor_cavr", "title": "Timor-Leste Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconciliation, Chega! final report", "url": "https://www.etan.org/cavr.htm" } ], "rendered_case_id": "asia-indonesian-occupation-timor-leste", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 89.2275089271, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.2275089271, "unknown_bound_high": 89.2275089271 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 67.1763141934, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.1763141934, "unknown_bound_high": 67.1763141934 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 61.6917836696, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.6917836696, "unknown_bound_high": 61.6917836696 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 37.1697022427, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.1697022427, "unknown_bound_high": 37.1697022427 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 92.2478580195, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.2478580195, "unknown_bound_high": 92.2478580195 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 12.1726097812, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.1726097812, "unknown_bound_high": 12.1726097812 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-qing-colonization-xinjiang", "name": "Qing conquest and military-agricultural colonization of Xinjiang", "start": 1755, "end": 1911, "date_label": "1755–1911", "region": "East and Central Asia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Qing state, banner garrisons, military farmers, convicts, and sponsored Han, Hui, Manchu, Mongol, and other migrants" ], "victims": [ "Dzungars destroyed or removed during conquest", "Uyghur and other oasis and pastoral communities subordinated under frontier rule" ], "agent_countries": [ "China" ], "victim_countries": [ "China", "Mongolia", "Kazakhstan", "Kyrgyzstan" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Mongolia", "Kazakhstan", "Kyrgyzstan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "dzungaria | xinjiang", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After conquering and depopulating Dzungaria, the Qing built a multiethnic military-agricultural frontier through garrisons, colonies, penal settlement, and sponsored migration while ruling existing oasis populations separately.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The current Xinjiang wrapper begins after the Dzungar destruction but fails to isolate Qing garrisons, colonies, convict settlement, and new migrant communities as a distinct phase.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After conquering and depopulating Dzungaria, the Qing built a multiethnic military-agricultural frontier through garrisons, colonies, penal settlement, and sponsored migration while ruling existing oasis populations separately.", "sources": [ { "id": "dzungar", "title": "Brophy 2023, “Qing Extermination of the Zünghars”", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108765480.013" }, { "id": "perdue", "title": "Perdue 2005, China Marches West", "url": "https://doi.org/10.4159/9780674042025" }, { "id": "xinjiang", "title": "Cliff 2016, Oil and Water", "url": "https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226360270.001.0001" } ], "rendered_case_id": "asia-qing-colonization-xinjiang", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.7093752032, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.7093752032, "unknown_bound_high": 87.7093752032 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 71.9491101316, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.9491101316, "unknown_bound_high": 71.9491101316 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 63.5609058201, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.5609058201, "unknown_bound_high": 63.5609058201 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 33.8773252396, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.8773252396, "unknown_bound_high": 33.8773252396 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 90.0291306713, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.0291306713, "unknown_bound_high": 90.0291306713 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 86.1879110396, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.1879110396, "unknown_bound_high": 86.1879110396 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-prc-xinjiang-xpcc-settlement", "name": "PRC state settlement and Production and Construction Corps expansion in Xinjiang", "start": 1949, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1949–present", "region": "East and Central Asia", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "The People's Republic of China", "Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps", "State-facilitated Han and other migrants" ], "victims": [ "Uyghur, Kazakh, and other Indigenous or long-established communities facing land, water, political, and demographic marginalization" ], "agent_countries": [ "China" ], "victim_countries": [ "China", "Kazakhstan", "Kyrgyzstan", "Tajikistan" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Kazakhstan", "Kyrgyzstan", "Tajikistan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "xinjiang", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The PRC used the XPCC and other state institutions to settle migrants, open farms and cities, control strategic land and water, and reshape the region's demographic and administrative balance.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The current wrapper conflates settlement institutions with the later internment, labor-transfer, surveillance, and assimilation campaign.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The PRC used the XPCC and other state institutions to settle migrants, open farms and cities, control strategic land and water, and reshape the region's demographic and administrative balance.", "sources": [ { "id": "xinjiang", "title": "Cliff 2016, Oil and Water", "url": "https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226360270.001.0001" }, { "id": "xpcc_bsg", "title": "Bao 2018 (Oxford BSG)", "url": "https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2018-05/BSG-WP-2018-023.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "asia-prc-xinjiang-xpcc-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.8340968415, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.8340968415, "unknown_bound_high": 91.8340968415 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 78.4030536085, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.4030536085, "unknown_bound_high": 78.4030536085 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 71.7602498059, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.7602498059, "unknown_bound_high": 71.7602498059 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.2920778384, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.2920778384, "unknown_bound_high": 49.2920778384 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.2236308639, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.2236308639, "unknown_bound_high": 59.2236308639 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75.7486934968, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.7486934968, "unknown_bound_high": 75.7486934968 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-xinjiang-mass-detention-labor-transfer", "name": "Mass detention, labor transfer, and coercive assimilation in Xinjiang", "start": 2017, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2017–present", "region": "East and Central Asia", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "Chinese central and Xinjiang regional authorities, security institutions, and participating employers" ], "victims": [ "Uyghurs and other predominantly Muslim minorities subjected to arbitrary detention, family separation, coercive labor placement, and religious-cultural repression" ], "agent_countries": [ "China" ], "victim_countries": [ "China", "Kazakhstan", "Turkey" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Kazakhstan", "Turkey" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "xinjiang", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "OHCHR found serious human-rights violations, including large-scale arbitrary detention and credible allegations of coercive labor schemes. These practices may reinforce settler domination but should not be mislabeled as population displacement without event-specific evidence.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas treats contemporary coercive assimilation as merely the latest phase of in-migration; it is a separate detention and rights-abuse system.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "OHCHR found serious human-rights violations, including large-scale arbitrary detention and credible allegations of coercive labor schemes. These practices may reinforce settler domination but should not be mislabeled as population displacement without event-specific evidence.", "sources": [ { "id": "asia_xinjiang_ohchr", "title": "OHCHR Assessment of Human Rights Concerns in Xinjiang", "url": "https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/countries/2022-08-31/22-08-31-final-assesment.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.4456687025, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 94.4456687025, "unknown_bound_high": 94.4456687025 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 68.816250667, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.816250667, "unknown_bound_high": 68.816250667 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 17.8083573346, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.8083573346, "unknown_bound_high": 17.8083573346 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.7511504242, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.7511504242, "unknown_bound_high": 26.7511504242 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7464174258, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.7464174258, "unknown_bound_high": 59.7464174258 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 67.9422561586, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.9422561586, "unknown_bound_high": 67.9422561586 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "pacific-nauru-phosphate-land-destruction", "name": "Colonial phosphate extraction and destruction of Nauruan land", "start": 1906, "end": 1968, "date_label": "1906–1968", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "German, British, Australian, and New Zealand administrations", "Phosphate companies and imported labor systems" ], "victims": [ "Nauruans whose habitable and cultivable interior was stripped", "Chinese and Pacific Island laborers working under colonial control" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany", "United Kingdom", "Australia", "New Zealand" ], "victim_countries": [ "Nauru", "China", "Kiribati", "Tuvalu" ], "container_countries": [ "Nauru", "Germany", "United Kingdom", "Australia", "New Zealand", "China", "Kiribati", "Tuvalu" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Colonial phosphate mining removed the island's interior soil for Australasian agriculture, leaving Nauruans crowded on a coastal strip and importing foreign labor under racially stratified rule.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a colonial extraction system that rendered most of a small island environmentally unusable and prompted plans to relocate its entire people.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Colonial phosphate mining removed the island's interior soil for Australasian agriculture, leaving Nauruans crowded on a coastal strip and importing foreign labor under racially stratified rule.", "sources": [ { "id": "pacific_nauru_phosphate", "title": "Obesity Emergence in the Pacific Islands: Colonial History of Nauru", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/public-health-nutrition/article/obesity-emergence-in-the-pacific-islands-why-understanding-colonial-history-and-social-change-is-important/46EB4B7010DF40775454796AD5B83F0C" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.0111767509, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.0111767509, "unknown_bound_high": 84.0111767509 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 68.6587555402, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.6587555402, "unknown_bound_high": 68.6587555402 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 46.4398642566, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.4398642566, "unknown_bound_high": 46.4398642566 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 41.9316169454, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.9316169454, "unknown_bound_high": 41.9316169454 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 36.2709467727, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.2709467727, "unknown_bound_high": 36.2709467727 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 40.7717688898, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.7717688898, "unknown_bound_high": 40.7717688898 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "pacific-papua-new-guinea-colonial-plantations", "name": "German and Australian plantation colonization in Papua New Guinea", "start": 1884, "end": 1975, "date_label": "1884–1975", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "German, British, and Australian colonial authorities", "European and Australian plantation owners and settlers" ], "victims": [ "Papuan and New Guinean communities whose land and labor were claimed by plantations, missions, mines, and administration" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany", "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Papua New Guinea" ], "container_countries": [ "Papua New Guinea", "Germany", "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "German company rule and later Australian administration facilitated plantation settlement and labor recruitment. Customary tenure survived across most land, but specific coastal and island districts experienced alienation and durable colonial occupation.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "A country with direct German and Australian plantation colonization is entirely absent from the atlas.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "German company rule and later Australian administration facilitated plantation settlement and labor recruitment. Customary tenure survived across most land, but specific coastal and island districts experienced alienation and durable colonial occupation.", "sources": [ { "id": "pacific_png_colonial", "title": "Different Destinations: Australian Women in Papua New Guinea", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/australian-women-in-papua-new-guinea/different-destinations/B094786A3872C8D20851641807B866F5" }, { "id": "qc_png_colonial", "title": "University of Adelaide, colonial plantations and labour in Papua New Guinea", "url": "https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handle/2440/48479" } ], "rendered_case_id": "pacific-papua-new-guinea-colonial-plantations", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 53.8700809759, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.8700809759, "unknown_bound_high": 53.8700809759 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 75.343245287, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.343245287, "unknown_bound_high": 75.343245287 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 35.5048308908, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.5048308908, "unknown_bound_high": 35.5048308908 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 4.5222901637, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.5222901637, "unknown_bound_high": 4.5222901637 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 67.7706445814, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.7706445814, "unknown_bound_high": 67.7706445814 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 35.1697737913, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.1697737913, "unknown_bound_high": 35.1697737913 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-british-malaya-plantation-labor-migration", "name": "British Malaya plantation and mining colonization through imported labor", "start": 1874, "end": 1957, "date_label": "1874–1957", "region": "Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "British colonial authorities and companies", "European planters and mine owners" ], "victims": [ "Indian and Chinese workers transported or recruited into coercive colonial labor systems", "Malay and Orang Asli communities affected by land reservation and commodity frontiers" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Malaysia", "Singapore", "India", "China" ], "container_countries": [ "Malaysia", "Singapore", "India", "China", "United Kingdom" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "British rule expanded tin and plantation production by importing large Chinese and Indian workforces. This radically changed population composition, but it was primarily capitalist labor colonization rather than a single project to expel Malay residents.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas has no account of the labor-import system that transformed Malaya's population and economy under colonial rule.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "British rule expanded tin and plantation production by importing large Chinese and Indian workforces. This radically changed population composition, but it was primarily capitalist labor colonization rather than a single project to expel Malay residents.", "sources": [ { "id": "asia_malaya_indenture", "title": "Indian Indentured Labour in Malaya", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/tragic-orphans/indian-indentured-labour-in-malaya/55E93B868821F744075DCA4C63C38EA5" }, { "id": "asia_malaya_labor_brokers", "title": "Labour Brokers in Migration: Historical and Contemporary Migration Regimes in Malaya/Malaysia", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-review-of-social-history/article/labour-brokers-in-migration-understanding-historical-and-contemporary-transnational-migration-regimes-in-malayamalaysia/965FE650CE156420C32B0FE4A8261AEA" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 56.1885484159, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.1885484159, "unknown_bound_high": 56.1885484159 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 84.8633113911, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.8633113911, "unknown_bound_high": 84.8633113911 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 67.16050955, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.16050955, "unknown_bound_high": 67.16050955 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 48.9310808032, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.9310808032, "unknown_bound_high": 48.9310808032 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 38.1651864816, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.1651864816, "unknown_bound_high": 38.1651864816 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 47.6163499842, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.6163499842, "unknown_bound_high": 47.6163499842 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-japanese-colonial-taiwan", "name": "Japanese conquest, settlement, and Indigenous land administration in Taiwan", "start": 1895, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1895–1945", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Japanese colonial government and military", "Japanese civilian settlers, companies, and agricultural enterprises" ], "victims": [ "Taiwanese Indigenous nations subjected to military conquest, territorial enclosure, and intrusive land administration", "Han Taiwanese residents subjected to colonial land, policing, labor, and assimilation policies" ], "agent_countries": [ "Japan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Taiwan" ], "container_countries": [ "Taiwan", "Japan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "han-taiwan", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Japan annexed Taiwan, defeated armed resistance, surveyed and reorganized land tenure, expanded state and corporate control, settled a substantial Japanese population, and violently incorporated Indigenous mountain territories. Japanese settlers never became a majority, so the case is colonial conquest with settlement rather than simple demographic replacement.", "disputes": "Colonial development and the survival of Taiwanese family farming do not erase conquest, coercion, or Indigenous land loss; the event should distinguish island-wide colonial governance from frontier campaigns against particular Indigenous nations.", "omission_or_category_error": "The Han-settlement case ends at Japanese annexation and therefore makes a distinct fifty-year colonial regime disappear inside an earlier migration story.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Japan annexed Taiwan, defeated armed resistance, surveyed and reorganized land tenure, expanded state and corporate control, settled a substantial Japanese population, and violently incorporated Indigenous mountain territories. Japanese settlers never became a majority, so the case is colonial conquest with settlement rather than simple demographic replacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "taiwan", "title": "Ye 2019", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Colonisation-and-Settlement-of-Taiwan-1684-1945-Land-Tenure-Law-and-Qing-and-Japanese-Policies/Ye/p/book/9780367587314" }, { "id": "qc_japanese_taiwan_indigenous", "title": "Asia-Pacific Journal, Formosa's First Nations and the Japanese: from colonial rule to postcolonial resistance", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/asia-pacific-journal/article/formosas-first-nations-and-the-japanese-from-colonial-rule-to-postcolonial-resistance/5DC9A154B3CA01D3782A14B86B88C854" } ], "rendered_case_id": "asia-japanese-colonial-taiwan", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.0483932632, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.0483932632, "unknown_bound_high": 81.0483932632 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 90.6917653512, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.6917653512, "unknown_bound_high": 90.6917653512 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 51.4606392748, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.4606392748, "unknown_bound_high": 51.4606392748 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 17.7242310324, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.7242310324, "unknown_bound_high": 17.7242310324 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.1100600667, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.1100600667, "unknown_bound_high": 58.1100600667 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 33.871290335, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.871290335, "unknown_bound_high": 33.871290335 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-medieval-ostsiedlung", "name": "Medieval eastward settlement (Ostsiedlung) beyond Prussia", "start": 1050, "end": 1400, "date_label": "c. 1050–1400", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "German-, Dutch-, and Flemish-speaking settlers", "secular and ecclesiastical lords", "town founders and military orders" ], "victims": [ "Slavic and Baltic rural communities where conquest, lordship, or new tenure displaced or subordinated them" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany", "Netherlands", "Belgium", "Austria" ], "victim_countries": [ "Germany", "Poland", "Czechia", "Slovakia", "Hungary", "Romania", "Slovenia", "Latvia", "Estonia", "Lithuania" ], "container_countries": [ "Germany", "Netherlands", "Belgium", "Austria", "Poland", "Czechia", "Slovakia", "Hungary", "Romania", "Slovenia", "Latvia", "Estonia", "Lithuania" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "teutonic-prussia", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Settlers and institutions from the German-speaking west founded towns and villages across Slavic- and Baltic-speaking regions. Some settlement was invited and negotiated; elsewhere it followed conquest, transferred jurisdiction and land, or subordinated existing communities.", "disputes": "The nationalist term and older replacement narratives are heavily contested. Local studies must distinguish new settlement and legal privilege from expulsion or demographic replacement.", "omission_or_category_error": "The Teutonic Prussia case covers only one militarized part of the wider medieval eastward settlement movement.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Settlers and institutions from the German-speaking west founded towns and villages across Slavic- and Baltic-speaking regions. Some settlement was invited and negotiated; elsewhere it followed conquest, transferred jurisdiction and land, or subordinated existing communities.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_ostsiedlung_lubke", "title": "Christian Lübke, Eastern Europe: medieval-era colonizations and reclamation of land", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444351071.wbeghm189" }, { "id": "qc_ostsiedlung", "title": "Oxford Scholarship Online, medieval eastward settlement and colonization", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/book/11459/chapter-abstract/160163144" } ], "rendered_case_id": "eu-medieval-ostsiedlung", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 43.7728517197, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.7728517197, "unknown_bound_high": 43.7728517197 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 59.6661936543, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.6661936543, "unknown_bound_high": 59.6661936543 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 82.1568944113, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.1568944113, "unknown_bound_high": 82.1568944113 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.2363116802, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.2363116802, "unknown_bound_high": 31.2363116802 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 28.7352756503, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.7352756503, "unknown_bound_high": 28.7352756503 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 40.9210527119, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.9210527119, "unknown_bound_high": 40.9210527119 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-norman-conquest-settlement-wales", "name": "Norman conquest and marcher settlement in Wales", "start": 1067, "end": 1283, "date_label": "1067–1283", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Norman and allied marcher lords", "English, Flemish, and other settlers" ], "victims": [ "Welsh polities and communities subjected to marcher lordship, castle building, borough settlement, and land transfer" ], "agent_countries": [ "France", "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "France" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Norman lords established marcher lordships, castles, boroughs, and settler enclaves across eastern and southern Wales before Edward I completed the conquest.", "disputes": "The scale of direct population displacement varied sharply; this is a conquest-and-settlement case, not a claim of wholesale Welsh replacement.", "omission_or_category_error": "No atlas case represents Norman military colonization and privileged settlement in Wales.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Norman lords established marcher lordships, castles, boroughs, and settler enclaves across eastern and southern Wales before Edward I completed the conquest.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_norman_wales_davies", "title": "R. R. Davies, The Normans in Welsh History", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/anglonorman-studies-30/normans-in-welsh-history-r-allen-brown-memorial-lecture/88EEB1121D23DB6993619C89F0BEA86F" }, { "id": "qc_norman_wales", "title": "Oxford Scholarship Online, conquest and colonial settlement in medieval Wales", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/book/26898/chapter-abstract/195967840" } ], "rendered_case_id": "eu-norman-conquest-settlement-wales", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 49.3665261835, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.3665261835, "unknown_bound_high": 49.3665261835 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 63.3747732414, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.3747732414, "unknown_bound_high": 63.3747732414 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 66.7073944736, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.7073944736, "unknown_bound_high": 66.7073944736 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 17.6395391069, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.6395391069, "unknown_bound_high": 17.6395391069 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 37.6827201529, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.6827201529, "unknown_bound_high": 37.6827201529 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 74.5005315962, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.5005315962, "unknown_bound_high": 74.5005315962 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-iberian-christian-conquest-repopulation", "name": "Christian conquest, land distribution, and settler repopulation in Iberia beyond Valencia", "start": 1085, "end": 1570, "date_label": "1085–1570", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Castilian, Aragonese, Catalan, Leonese, and Portuguese crowns", "Christian military orders and settlers" ], "victims": [ "Andalusi Muslim communities and landholders", "Mudéjar communities subjected to expulsion, transfer, or reduced tenure" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain", "Portugal" ], "victim_countries": [ "Spain", "Portugal" ], "container_countries": [ "Spain", "Portugal" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "medieval-valencia", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "As Christian kingdoms conquered al-Andalus, they redistributed land and jurisdiction and introduced settlers. Outcomes ranged from continuity under new rule to expulsion and replacement, so regional cases are preferable to a single Reconquista arrow.", "disputes": "Traditional depopulation-and-repopulation narratives exaggerate emptiness in some regions; the finding is strongest where records document expulsion, land repartition, and new settlement.", "omission_or_category_error": "Valencia is one well-documented case, but it does not cover conquest and colonization in New Catalonia, Castile, Andalusia, Murcia, Granada, or Portugal.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "As Christian kingdoms conquered al-Andalus, they redistributed land and jurisdiction and introduced settlers. Outcomes ranged from continuity under new rule to expulsion and replacement, so regional cases are preferable to a single Reconquista arrow.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_reconquista_lleida", "title": "Changes and survival: the territory of Lleida after the twelfth-century conquest", "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304418101000173" }, { "id": "eu_reconquista_valencia", "title": "Local institutions and human capital formation in pre-industrial societies: evidence from Valencia", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/ereh/article/28/2/135/7379742" } ], "rendered_case_id": "eu-iberian-christian-conquest-repopulation", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 68.0747522155, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.0747522155, "unknown_bound_high": 68.0747522155 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 77.8585693627, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.8585693627, "unknown_bound_high": 77.8585693627 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 80.514531578, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.514531578, "unknown_bound_high": 80.514531578 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 37.246719006, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.246719006, "unknown_bound_high": 37.246719006 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 66.4104735836, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.4104735836, "unknown_bound_high": 66.4104735836 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 97.5966578726, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.5966578726, "unknown_bound_high": 97.5966578726 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-expulsion-jews-spain-1492", "name": "Expulsion of Jews from Castile and Aragon", "start": 1492, "end": 1492, "date_label": "1492", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "The crowns of Castile and Aragon" ], "victims": [ "Jews who refused conversion and conversos subjected to continuing persecution" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "Spain" ], "container_countries": [ "Spain", "Portugal", "Morocco", "Algeria", "Tunisia", "Italy", "Turkey", "Greece", "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "Israel", "Palestine" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The Alhambra Decree required practicing Jews to convert or leave, dispersing Sephardic communities across Portugal, North Africa, Italy, and the Ottoman world and transferring homes and property to those who remained.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "A major state expulsion and property transfer is absent; it belongs in the contextual displacement layer rather than as a settler-colonial stop.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The Alhambra Decree required practicing Jews to convert or leave, dispersing Sephardic communities across Portugal, North Africa, Italy, and the Ottoman world and transferring homes and property to those who remained.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_jews_spain_portugal", "title": "The Persecution of the Jews and Muslims of Portugal: King Manuel I and the End of Religious Tolerance", "url": "https://reviews.history.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Reviews_in_History_-_The_Persecution_of_the_Jews_and_Muslims_of_Portugal._King_Manuel_I_and_the_End_of_Religious_Tolerance_%281496%E2%80%937%29_%5BThe_Medieval_Mediterranean._Peoples%2C_Economies_and_Cultures%2C_400%E2%80%931500._Volume_69%5D_-_2009_08_31.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.7440190184, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.7440190184, "unknown_bound_high": 85.7440190184 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 71.0760183817, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.0760183817, "unknown_bound_high": 71.0760183817 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 74.7429614737, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.7429614737, "unknown_bound_high": 74.7429614737 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 36.2618645206, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.2618645206, "unknown_bound_high": 36.2618645206 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 68.0913413324, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.0913413324, "unknown_bound_high": 68.0913413324 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-morisco-expulsion", "name": "Expulsion of the Moriscos from Spain", "start": 1609, "end": 1614, "date_label": "1609–1614", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "The Spanish monarchy and regional authorities" ], "victims": [ "Moriscos—descendants of Muslims subjected to forced conversion" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "Spain" ], "container_countries": [ "Spain", "Morocco", "Algeria", "Tunisia", "France", "Italy" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The monarchy expelled Morisco communities after a century of coerced conversion and repression, with especially severe demographic and landholding consequences in Valencia and Aragon.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The final destruction of a centuries-old Islamic-descended population in Spain is absent from the contextual displacement record.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The monarchy expelled Morisco communities after a century of coerced conversion and repression, with especially severe demographic and landholding consequences in Valencia and Aragon.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_morisco_expulsion", "title": "The expulsion of the Moriscos from Spain in 1609–1614", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-global-history/article/abs/expulsion-of-the-moriscos-from-spain-in-16091614-the-destruction-of-an-islamic-periphery/CA674D527734A60621865F2A99FB60C7" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 82.4683777402, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.4683777402, "unknown_bound_high": 82.4683777402 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 70.4767319802, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.4767319802, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4767319802 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 77.9237506497, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.9237506497, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9237506497 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.5899584934, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5899584934, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5899584934 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.0979778356, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.0979778356, "unknown_bound_high": 58.0979778356 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 82.6300562543, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.6300562543, "unknown_bound_high": 82.6300562543 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-habsburg-military-frontier", "name": "Habsburg Military Frontier settlement and militarized resettlement", "start": 1522, "end": 1881, "date_label": "1522–1881", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Habsburg authorities", "frontier soldier-settlers including Serb, Croat, German, Romanian, and other refugee communities" ], "victims": [ "Residents subjected to military tenure, compulsory service, land reorganization, or displacement in a changing Ottoman–Habsburg borderland" ], "agent_countries": [ "Austria", "Croatia", "Serbia", "Hungary" ], "victim_countries": [ "Croatia", "Serbia", "Hungary", "Romania", "Slovenia", "Bosnia and Herzegovina" ], "container_countries": [ "Austria", "Croatia", "Serbia", "Hungary", "Romania", "Slovenia", "Bosnia and Herzegovina" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "The Habsburg monarchy organized a militarized frontier, granted land in return for service, and resettled refugees and soldiers into a repeatedly depopulated and reconquered border zone.", "disputes": "Many settlers were themselves refugees from Ottoman warfare. The system was coercive and colonial in administration, but local victim/beneficiary roles changed across centuries.", "omission_or_category_error": "A long-lived European military-colonial institution and state-directed frontier resettlement system is absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The Habsburg monarchy organized a militarized frontier, granted land in return for service, and resettled refugees and soldiers into a repeatedly depopulated and reconquered border zone.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_habsburg_frontier", "title": "Alexander Szakolczai, Imperial Borderlands: The Habsburg Military Frontier", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009365215" }, { "id": "qc_habsburg_frontier", "title": "Imperial Borderlands, The Habsburg Military Frontier", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/imperial-borderlands/habsburg-military-frontier/CD645C2C5905854C8EB2ED39B14A7379" } ], "rendered_case_id": "eu-habsburg-military-frontier", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.530670379, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.530670379, "unknown_bound_high": 83.530670379 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 62.4500999599, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.4500999599, "unknown_bound_high": 62.4500999599 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 87.0538375536, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.0538375536, "unknown_bound_high": 87.0538375536 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 52.2726930864, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.2726930864, "unknown_bound_high": 52.2726930864 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 47.7583644035, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.7583644035, "unknown_bound_high": 47.7583644035 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 72.3121566681, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.3121566681, "unknown_bound_high": 72.3121566681 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-ottoman-settlement-cyprus", "name": "Ottoman conquest and Muslim settlement of Cyprus", "start": 1571, "end": 1878, "date_label": "1571–1878", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Ottoman state", "soldiers, administrators, artisans, peasants, and other Muslim settlers from Anatolia" ], "victims": [ "Greek-speaking Orthodox and other Cypriot communities subjected to conquest, confiscation, and new rule" ], "agent_countries": [ "Turkey" ], "victim_countries": [ "Cyprus" ], "container_countries": [ "Turkey", "Cyprus" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "northern-cyprus", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "After conquest, Ottoman authorities introduced Muslim military, administrative, artisan, and farming populations whose descendants became the Turkish Cypriot community.", "disputes": "The degree of removal versus continuity and conversion varied; the event should not be used to deny the indigeneity or long residence of either modern Cypriot community.", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas begins the Cyprus settlement story in 1974 and omits the much older Ottoman conquest and formation of the Turkish Cypriot community.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After conquest, Ottoman authorities introduced Muslim military, administrative, artisan, and farming populations whose descendants became the Turkish Cypriot community.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_ottoman_cyprus", "title": "Who Are the People of Cyprus? Identity Building from Ottoman to British Rule", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/nationalities-papers/article/who-are-the-people-of-cyprus-the-national-identity-building-process-in-cyprus-from-the-late-19th-to-the-early-20th-century/EA9AAF06237E1E1323FF05BE4F8145CF" }, { "id": "qc_ottoman_cyprus", "title": "Scholarly study of Ottoman settlement and demographic change in Cyprus", "url": "https://files01.core.ac.uk/download/pdf/295999645.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "eu-ottoman-settlement-cyprus", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 89.5655080484, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.5655080484, "unknown_bound_high": 89.5655080484 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 66.4908233402, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.4908233402, "unknown_bound_high": 66.4908233402 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 63.6203208517, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.6203208517, "unknown_bound_high": 63.6203208517 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 30.9144675395, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.9144675395, "unknown_bound_high": 30.9144675395 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.8566072575, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.8566072575, "unknown_bound_high": 49.8566072575 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 65.2727150346, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.2727150346, "unknown_bound_high": 65.2727150346 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-highland-clearances", "name": "Scottish Highland and Island Clearances", "start": 1750, "end": 1886, "date_label": "c. 1750–1886", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "Highland landlords, estate managers, and the British legal-economic order" ], "victims": [ "Gaelic-speaking tenants and crofters removed or pressured from inland townships" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Canada", "United States", "Australia", "New Zealand" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Landlords reorganized estates for sheep, sporting uses, and commercial agriculture, evicting or relocating many Highland and Island tenants and contributing to mass emigration.", "disputes": "The term covers different local processes, including direct evictions, rent pressure, assisted migration, and famine-era departure; not every emigrant was forcibly removed.", "omission_or_category_error": "An internal land clearance that fed overseas settler migration is missing from the related-circumstances layer.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Landlords reorganized estates for sheep, sporting uses, and commercial agriculture, evicting or relocating many Highland and Island tenants and contributing to mass emigration.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_highland_clearances", "title": "Richards and Tindley, After the Clearances: Evander McIver and the Highland Question", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0956793311000148" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 47.4742816776, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.4742816776, "unknown_bound_high": 47.4742816776 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 70.762477052, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.762477052, "unknown_bound_high": 70.762477052 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.8798659459, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.8798659459, "unknown_bound_high": 50.8798659459 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 34.4714452908, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.4714452908, "unknown_bound_high": 34.4714452908 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 41.7399067163, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.7399067163, "unknown_bound_high": 41.7399067163 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 62.4145519831, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.4145519831, "unknown_bound_high": 62.4145519831 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-greek-bulgarian-population-exchange", "name": "Greek–Bulgarian reciprocal population exchange", "start": 1919, "end": 1927, "date_label": "1919–1927", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "population exchange/partition", "agents": [ "Greek and Bulgarian governments under the Treaty of Neuilly framework" ], "victims": [ "Bulgarians in Greece and Greeks in Bulgaria pressed or compelled to leave" ], "agent_countries": [ "Greece", "Bulgaria" ], "victim_countries": [ "Greece", "Bulgaria" ], "container_countries": [ "Greece", "Bulgaria" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "A formally voluntary reciprocal emigration convention operated amid strong coercive pressures and consolidated national homogenization after the Balkan Wars and First World War.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "This internationally sanctioned population unmixing is missing from the contextual record.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "A formally voluntary reciprocal emigration convention operated amid strong coercive pressures and consolidated national homogenization after the Balkan Wars and First World War.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_greek_turkish_exchange", "title": "Özsu, Fabricating Fidelity: Nation-Building, International Law, and the Greek–Turkish Population Exchange", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0922156511000392" }, { "id": "eu_balkan_wars_thrace", "title": "From Cisr-i Mustafa Paşa to Svilengrad: Ethnic Homogenization in the Balkan Wars", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-middle-east-studies/article/from-cisri-mustafa-pasa-to-svilengrad-the-ethnic-homogenization-of-a-thracian-town-in-the-balkan-wars/215EC9FA51CEB3FDDDA1FDE2900EB73C" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.1518674222, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.1518674222, "unknown_bound_high": 86.1518674222 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 86.0708423076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.0708423076, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0708423076 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 78.5805353199, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.5805353199, "unknown_bound_high": 78.5805353199 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 85.2801364993, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.2801364993, "unknown_bound_high": 85.2801364993 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 24.3075757704, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.3075757704, "unknown_bound_high": 24.3075757704 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 82.6300562543, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.6300562543, "unknown_bound_high": 82.6300562543 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-greek-turkish-population-exchange", "name": "Greek–Turkish compulsory population exchange", "start": 1919, "end": 1930, "date_label": "1919–1930", "region": "Europe / Middle East", "mechanism": "population exchange/partition", "agents": [ "Governments of Greece and Turkey", "League of Nations and Allied treaty system" ], "victims": [ "Orthodox Christians of Anatolia", "Muslims of Greece, including people whose language or identity did not match the imposed categories" ], "agent_countries": [ "Greece", "Turkey" ], "victim_countries": [ "Greece", "Turkey", "Albania" ], "container_countries": [ "Greece", "Turkey", "Albania" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The Lausanne system made religion the proxy for nationality and compelled Orthodox Christians in Turkey and Muslims in Greece to leave, ratifying and extending wartime flight and expulsion.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "One of the defining compulsory population exchanges of the twentieth century is absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The Lausanne system made religion the proxy for nationality and compelled Orthodox Christians in Turkey and Muslims in Greece to leave, ratifying and extending wartime flight and expulsion.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_greek_turkish_exchange", "title": "Özsu, Fabricating Fidelity: Nation-Building, International Law, and the Greek–Turkish Population Exchange", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0922156511000392" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.0469607786, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 96.0469607786, "unknown_bound_high": 96.0469607786 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 85.7841870737, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.7841870737, "unknown_bound_high": 85.7841870737 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 77.980965333, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.980965333, "unknown_bound_high": 77.980965333 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 92.4966462516, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.4966462516, "unknown_bound_high": 92.4966462516 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 73.8464502262, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.8464502262, "unknown_bound_high": 73.8464502262 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.6379035723, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.6379035723, "unknown_bound_high": 77.6379035723 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-armenian-genocide-deportation", "name": "Armenian genocide, deportation, and property seizure", "start": 1915, "end": 1923, "date_label": "1915–1923", "region": "Europe / Middle East", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Ottoman Committee of Union and Progress government", "Ottoman forces and auxiliaries", "later Turkish nationalist forces in continuing expulsions" ], "victims": [ "Ottoman Armenians" ], "agent_countries": [ "Turkey" ], "victim_countries": [ "Turkey", "Armenia", "Syria", "Iraq", "Lebanon" ], "container_countries": [ "Turkey", "Armenia", "Syria", "Iraq", "Lebanon" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Ottoman authorities organized mass deportations, killing, death marches, family separation, forced conversion, and property confiscation, permanently removing most Armenians from much of Anatolia.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The destruction and removal of Armenians, confiscation of their property, and subsequent demographic reordering of Anatolia are absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Ottoman authorities organized mass deportations, killing, death marches, family separation, forced conversion, and property confiscation, permanently removing most Armenians from much of Anatolia.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_armenian_genocide_ushmm", "title": "United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, The Armenian Genocide (1915–16): Overview", "url": "https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/the-armenian-genocide-1915-16-overview" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.4353889176, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.4353889176, "unknown_bound_high": 93.4353889176 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 85.8113913386, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.8113913386, "unknown_bound_high": 85.8113913386 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.6691548706, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.6691548706, "unknown_bound_high": 68.6691548706 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 85.4971823937, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.4971823937, "unknown_bound_high": 85.4971823937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 97.1111984691, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.1111984691, "unknown_bound_high": 97.1111984691 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 74.5941808388, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.5941808388, "unknown_bound_high": 74.5941808388 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-assyrian-sayfo", "name": "Sayfo: genocide and expulsion of Assyrian, Syriac, and Chaldean Christians", "start": 1914, "end": 1920, "date_label": "1914–1920", "region": "Europe / Middle East", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Ottoman forces and authorities", "some allied Kurdish and local armed groups" ], "victims": [ "Assyrian, Syriac, and Chaldean Christian communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "Turkey" ], "victim_countries": [ "Turkey", "Iraq", "Syria", "Iran" ], "container_countries": [ "Turkey", "Iraq", "Syria", "Iran" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Mass killing, deportation, village destruction, and flight removed a large share of Assyrian/Syriac/Chaldean Christians from Hakkari, Tur Abdin, Urmia, and neighboring districts.", "disputes": "Victim nomenclature and estimates vary; the existence of mass killing and forced removal is well documented.", "omission_or_category_error": "The genocide and permanent emptying of many Indigenous Christian districts is absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Mass killing, deportation, village destruction, and flight removed a large share of Assyrian/Syriac/Chaldean Christians from Hakkari, Tur Abdin, Urmia, and neighboring districts.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_assyrian_genocide_gaunt", "title": "Let Them Not Return: Sayfo—The Genocide against Assyrian, Syriac and Chaldean Christians", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0009640719001690" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.5200787024, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.5200787024, "unknown_bound_high": 81.5200787024 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 70.0741374281, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.0741374281, "unknown_bound_high": 70.0741374281 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.6231578972, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.6231578972, "unknown_bound_high": 75.6231578972 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 81.9030757348, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.9030757348, "unknown_bound_high": 81.9030757348 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 79.8649079134, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.8649079134, "unknown_bound_high": 79.8649079134 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.1829913935, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.1829913935, "unknown_bound_high": 77.1829913935 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-ottoman-greek-deportations-expulsion", "name": "Ottoman Greek deportations and expulsions", "start": 1914, "end": 1923, "date_label": "1914–1923", "region": "Europe / Middle East", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Ottoman CUP authorities", "paramilitaries", "Turkish nationalist forces" ], "victims": [ "Greek Orthodox communities of Anatolia, Pontus, and Eastern Thrace" ], "agent_countries": [ "Turkey" ], "victim_countries": [ "Turkey", "Greece" ], "container_countries": [ "Turkey", "Greece" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Successive Ottoman and Turkish nationalist campaigns deported, internally exiled, killed, or drove out Greek Orthodox populations before the remaining displacement was legalized through the 1923 exchange.", "disputes": "The umbrella label Greek genocide is contested in some national historiographies; the component deportations, killings, and expulsions are extensively documented.", "omission_or_category_error": "Wartime deportation, internal exile, mass mortality, and the final expulsion of most Anatolian Greeks are absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Successive Ottoman and Turkish nationalist campaigns deported, internally exiled, killed, or drove out Greek Orthodox populations before the remaining displacement was legalized through the 1923 exchange.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_ottoman_greek_deportations", "title": "Erol, Ottoman Greek Orthodox internal exiles during the Great War, 1914–1918", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/npt.2023.17" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.4353889176, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.4353889176, "unknown_bound_high": 93.4353889176 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 87.7167731191, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.7167731191, "unknown_bound_high": 87.7167731191 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 76.9385157585, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.9385157585, "unknown_bound_high": 76.9385157585 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 85.2091729223, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.2091729223, "unknown_bound_high": 85.2091729223 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 80.5990848913, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.5990848913, "unknown_bound_high": 80.5990848913 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 74.7796492661, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.7796492661, "unknown_bound_high": 74.7796492661 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-holocaust", "name": "The Holocaust: destruction and displacement of European Jewry", "start": 1933, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1933–1945", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Nazi Germany", "Axis allies, occupation regimes, and collaborating authorities" ], "victims": [ "European Jews" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany", "Austria", "Italy", "Hungary", "Romania", "Bulgaria", "Slovakia", "Croatia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Albania", "Austria", "Belarus", "Belgium", "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "Bulgaria", "Croatia", "Czechia", "Denmark", "Estonia", "France", "Germany", "Greece", "Hungary", "Italy", "Latvia", "Lithuania", "Luxembourg", "Moldova", "Montenegro", "Netherlands", "North Macedonia", "Norway", "Poland", "Romania", "Russia", "Serbia", "Slovakia", "Slovenia", "Ukraine" ], "container_countries": [ "Albania", "Austria", "Belarus", "Belgium", "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "Bulgaria", "Croatia", "Czechia", "Denmark", "Estonia", "France", "Germany", "Greece", "Hungary", "Italy", "Latvia", "Lithuania", "Luxembourg", "Moldova", "Montenegro", "Netherlands", "North Macedonia", "Norway", "Poland", "Romania", "Russia", "Serbia", "Slovakia", "Slovenia", "Ukraine" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Nazi Germany and its allies and collaborators systematically persecuted and murdered six million Jews, deporting populations across Europe and permanently destroying communities while expropriating their property.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas includes Nazi territorial plans but omits the implemented genocide that destroyed thousands of Jewish communities and transferred homes, businesses, and property.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Nazi Germany and its allies and collaborators systematically persecuted and murdered six million Jews, deporting populations across Europe and permanently destroying communities while expropriating their property.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_holocaust_ushmm", "title": "United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, Introduction to the Holocaust", "url": "https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/introduction-to-the-holocaust" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.3484225363, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.3484225363, "unknown_bound_high": 90.3484225363 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 89.8297076851, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.8297076851, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8297076851 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 80.5439899032, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.5439899032, "unknown_bound_high": 80.5439899032 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 94.2223969382, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 94.2223969382, "unknown_bound_high": 94.2223969382 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 50.2791161535, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.2791161535, "unknown_bound_high": 50.2791161535 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "eu-romani-genocide", "name": "Nazi and Axis genocide of Roma and Sinti", "start": 1939, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1939–1945", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Nazi Germany", "Romanian, Croatian, and other Axis or collaborating authorities" ], "victims": [ "Roma and Sinti communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany", "Austria", "Romania", "Croatia", "Italy", "Hungary", "Slovakia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Germany", "Austria", "Belgium", "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "Croatia", "Czechia", "Estonia", "France", "Hungary", "Italy", "Latvia", "Lithuania", "Moldova", "Netherlands", "Poland", "Romania", "Russia", "Serbia", "Slovakia", "Ukraine" ], "container_countries": [ "Germany", "Austria", "Belgium", "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "Croatia", "Czechia", "Estonia", "France", "Hungary", "Italy", "Latvia", "Lithuania", "Moldova", "Netherlands", "Poland", "Romania", "Russia", "Serbia", "Slovakia", "Ukraine" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "German and allied authorities interned, deported, exploited, and murdered Roma and Sinti across occupied and Axis Europe.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The racial genocide, internment, and deportation of Roma and Sinti are absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "German and allied authorities interned, deported, exploited, and murdered Roma and Sinti across occupied and Axis Europe.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_romani_genocide_ushmm", "title": "United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, Genocide of European Roma, 1939–1945", "url": "https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/genocide-of-european-roma-gypsies-1939-1945" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.4366579039, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.4366579039, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4366579039 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 62.7822432743, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.7822432743, "unknown_bound_high": 62.7822432743 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 71.4111336719, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.4111336719, "unknown_bound_high": 71.4111336719 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 90.5430367303, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.5430367303, "unknown_bound_high": 90.5430367303 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 3.2034703913, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.2034703913, "unknown_bound_high": 3.2034703913 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-nazi-implemented-polish-expulsions", "name": "Nazi expulsions, Germanization, and settlement in annexed Poland", "start": 1939, "end": 1944, "date_label": "1939–1944", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Nazi German occupation authorities", "ethnic-German resettlers" ], "victims": [ "Poles and Jews expelled from annexed western Polish territories", "Polish children selected for Germanization" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany" ], "victim_countries": [ "Poland" ], "container_countries": [ "Germany", "Poland" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "generalplan-ost", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "German authorities expelled Poles and Jews, seized farms and homes, resettled ethnic Germans, and abducted children for Germanization in territories incorporated into the Reich.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Generalplan Ost is labeled attempted, but major expulsions, property seizures, Germanization, and settler placement were actually implemented in annexed Poland.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "German authorities expelled Poles and Jews, seized farms and homes, resettled ethnic Germans, and abducted children for Germanization in territories incorporated into the Reich.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_nazi_polish_expulsions_ushmm", "title": "United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, SS and the Holocaust", "url": "https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/ss-and-the-holocaust" }, { "id": "qc_nazi_poland", "title": "German Historical Museum, colonization and expulsion in occupied Poland", "url": "https://www.dhm.de/lemo/kapitel/der-zweite-weltkrieg/kriegsverlauf/kolonisierung-und-vertreibung-in-polen" } ], "rendered_case_id": "eu-nazi-implemented-polish-expulsions", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.0469607786, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 96.0469607786, "unknown_bound_high": 96.0469607786 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 73.5652890707, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.5652890707, "unknown_bound_high": 73.5652890707 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 67.8294731448, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.8294731448, "unknown_bound_high": 67.8294731448 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 47.8949095901, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.8949095901, "unknown_bound_high": 47.8949095901 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 78.8786683928, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.8786683928, "unknown_bound_high": 78.8786683928 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 7.1804570992, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 7.1804570992 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-ustasha-genocide-expulsions", "name": "Ustaša genocide, expulsion, and forced conversion", "start": 1941, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1941–1945", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Independent State of Croatia and Ustaša authorities" ], "victims": [ "Serbs", "Jews", "Roma", "political opponents" ], "agent_countries": [ "Croatia", "Bosnia and Herzegovina" ], "victim_countries": [ "Croatia", "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "Serbia" ], "container_countries": [ "Croatia", "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "Serbia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The Ustaša regime murdered, expelled, and forcibly converted Serbs while participating in the murder of Jews and Roma, radically altering communities within wartime Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Ustaša program of killing, expulsion, and forced conversion is absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The Ustaša regime murdered, expelled, and forcibly converted Serbs while participating in the murder of Jews and Roma, radically altering communities within wartime Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_ustasha_ushmm", "title": "United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, Axis Invasion of Yugoslavia", "url": "https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/axis-invasion-of-yugoslavia" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.2137609031, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.2137609031, "unknown_bound_high": 87.2137609031 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 68.501119807, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.501119807, "unknown_bound_high": 68.501119807 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 45.3317548789, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.3317548789, "unknown_bound_high": 45.3317548789 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 56.700208939, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.700208939, "unknown_bound_high": 56.700208939 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.3442683913, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.3442683913, "unknown_bound_high": 75.3442683913 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-postwar-expulsion-ethnic-germans", "name": "Flight and expulsion of Germans from Central and Eastern Europe", "start": 1944, "end": 1950, "date_label": "1944–1950", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Soviet, Polish, Czechoslovak, Hungarian, Romanian, and Yugoslav authorities and forces", "Allied population-transfer settlement" ], "victims": [ "German citizens and ethnic-German communities east of the postwar German borders" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia", "Poland", "Czechia", "Slovakia", "Hungary", "Romania", "Serbia", "Croatia", "Slovenia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Germany", "Poland", "Czechia", "Slovakia", "Hungary", "Romania", "Serbia", "Croatia", "Slovenia", "Russia", "Lithuania", "Latvia", "Estonia" ], "container_countries": [ "Germany", "Austria", "Poland", "Czechia", "Slovakia", "Hungary", "Romania", "Serbia", "Croatia", "Slovenia", "Russia", "Lithuania", "Latvia", "Estonia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Roughly twelve million people categorized as German fled or were expelled from territories transferred to Poland and the Soviet Union and from long-established communities across Central and Eastern Europe.", "disputes": "Flight from combat, organized expulsion, internment, and later transfer must be distinguished; this event followed Nazi conquest and genocide and should not be represented without that causal context.", "omission_or_category_error": "The largest postwar European forced migration is absent, despite the atlas covering earlier German settlement in several source regions.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Roughly twelve million people categorized as German fled or were expelled from territories transferred to Poland and the Soviet Union and from long-established communities across Central and Eastern Europe.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_postwar_german_expulsions", "title": "Philipp Ther, The Integration of Expellees in Germany and Poland after World War II", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/slavic-review/article/abs/integration-of-expellees-in-germany-and-poland-after-world-war-ii-a-historical-reassessment/207BA0ADFEFBE07ECAFB9D8615668229" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.1345869337, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.1345869337, "unknown_bound_high": 92.1345869337 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 78.4506412659, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.4506412659, "unknown_bound_high": 78.4506412659 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 89.7500589471, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.7500589471, "unknown_bound_high": 89.7500589471 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 92.6395391069, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6395391069, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6395391069 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.0006405435, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.0006405435, "unknown_bound_high": 63.0006405435 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 72.1908387115, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.1908387115, "unknown_bound_high": 72.1908387115 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-poland-ukraine-population-transfer", "name": "Polish–Ukrainian population transfers and border unmixing", "start": 1944, "end": 1946, "date_label": "1944–1946", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "population exchange/partition", "agents": [ "Polish Committee of National Liberation", "Soviet Ukrainian and Soviet authorities" ], "victims": [ "Ukrainians, Lemkos, Boykos, and Rusyns west of the new border", "Poles east of the new border" ], "agent_countries": [ "Poland", "Ukraine", "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Poland", "Ukraine" ], "container_countries": [ "Poland", "Ukraine", "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Postwar agreements transferred Poles westward and Ukrainians and related communities eastward, often under force, consolidating a new boundary and more homogeneous states.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The reciprocal but coercive removal of Poles and Ukrainians around the new border is absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Postwar agreements transferred Poles westward and Ukrainians and related communities eastward, often under force, consolidating a new boundary and more homogeneous states.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_operation_vistula", "title": "Operation Vistula: causes, perpetrators, resonance and consequences", "url": "https://journals.akademicka.pl/rrb/article/view/545" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.9172551937, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.9172551937, "unknown_bound_high": 91.9172551937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 62.5396374569, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5396374569, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5396374569 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 80.6771867265, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.6771867265, "unknown_bound_high": 80.6771867265 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 86.8097634929, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.8097634929, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8097634929 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 46.789287556, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.789287556, "unknown_bound_high": 46.789287556 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.6379035723, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.6379035723, "unknown_bound_high": 77.6379035723 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-operation-vistula", "name": "Operation Vistula", "start": 1947, "end": 1950, "date_label": "1947–1950", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Polish communist government and security forces" ], "victims": [ "Ukrainians, Lemkos, Boykos, and Rusyns in southeastern Poland" ], "agent_countries": [ "Poland" ], "victim_countries": [ "Poland" ], "container_countries": [ "Poland" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Polish authorities forcibly removed roughly 140,000 people from the southeast and dispersed them across western and northern Poland to break insurgent support and inhibit minority cohesion.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The deliberate dispersal of a borderland minority into formerly German northern and western territories is absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Polish authorities forcibly removed roughly 140,000 people from the southeast and dispersed them across western and northern Poland to break insurgent support and inhibit minority cohesion.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_operation_vistula", "title": "Operation Vistula: causes, perpetrators, resonance and consequences", "url": "https://journals.akademicka.pl/rrb/article/view/545" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.6482528547, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.6482528547, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6482528547 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 62.1292612279, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.1292612279, "unknown_bound_high": 62.1292612279 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.8981402626, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.8981402626, "unknown_bound_high": 83.8981402626 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 57.8193797033, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.8193797033, "unknown_bound_high": 57.8193797033 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 65.7380599552, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.7380599552, "unknown_bound_high": 65.7380599552 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-istrian-dalmatian-exodus", "name": "Istrian–Dalmatian exodus", "start": 1943, "end": 1960, "date_label": "1943–1960", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Yugoslav authorities and forces", "postwar border and nationalization policies" ], "victims": [ "Italian-speaking and Italian-identified residents of Istria, Rijeka, Zadar, and Dalmatia", "some anti-communist Slovenes and Croats" ], "agent_countries": [ "Croatia", "Slovenia", "Serbia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Croatia", "Slovenia", "Italy" ], "container_countries": [ "Croatia", "Slovenia", "Italy" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Most Italian-speaking or Italian-identified residents left Yugoslav-annexed territories amid killings, intimidation, property nationalization, political repression, and an option-to-depart regime.", "disputes": "The balance of direct coercion, fear, ideological flight, economic pressure, and voluntary option varied; nationalist accounts often omit prior Italian fascist repression of Slovenes and Croats.", "omission_or_category_error": "The near disappearance of long-established Italian communities after fascist occupation, war, border transfer, violence, and nationalization is absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Most Italian-speaking or Italian-identified residents left Yugoslav-annexed territories amid killings, intimidation, property nationalization, political repression, and an option-to-depart regime.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_istrian_exodus", "title": "Badurina, Divided memory: The Istrian Exodus", "url": "https://doi.org/10.22586/csp.v49i2.5" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.6337336983, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.6337336983, "unknown_bound_high": 84.6337336983 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 70.3851684112, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.3851684112, "unknown_bound_high": 70.3851684112 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.8689098681, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.8689098681, "unknown_bound_high": 69.8689098681 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 58.8341431457, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.8341431457, "unknown_bound_high": 58.8341431457 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.5549411053, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.5549411053, "unknown_bound_high": 42.5549411053 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.1829913935, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.1829913935, "unknown_bound_high": 77.1829913935 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-cyprus-intercommunal-displacement", "name": "Intercommunal displacement and partition of Cyprus", "start": 1963, "end": 1975, "date_label": "1963–1975", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "population exchange/partition", "agents": [ "Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot armed organizations", "Greek-backed coup authorities", "Turkish armed forces and de facto northern administration" ], "victims": [ "Turkish Cypriots displaced into enclaves and northward", "Greek Cypriots displaced southward", "other Cypriot minorities" ], "agent_countries": [ "Cyprus", "Greece", "Turkey" ], "victim_countries": [ "Cyprus" ], "container_countries": [ "Cyprus", "Greece", "Turkey" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "northern-cyprus", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Violence beginning in 1963 displaced Turkish Cypriots into enclaves; the 1974 coup and Turkish invasion then displaced most Greek Cypriots from the north and most Turkish Cypriots from the south.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The current case focuses on post-1974 Turkish-mainland settlement but omits the reciprocal intercommunal displacement and territorial partition that preceded it.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Violence beginning in 1963 displaced Turkish Cypriots into enclaves; the 1974 coup and Turkish invasion then displaced most Greek Cypriots from the north and most Turkish Cypriots from the south.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_cyprus_displacement_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR Archive Gallery: Cyprus 1974", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/africa/publications/unhcr-archive-gallery-cyprus-1974" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.5784290351, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.5784290351, "unknown_bound_high": 81.5784290351 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 84.4513906581, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.4513906581, "unknown_bound_high": 84.4513906581 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 86.2141558278, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.2141558278, "unknown_bound_high": 86.2141558278 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 94.5894223512, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 94.5894223512, "unknown_bound_high": 94.5894223512 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.5216481594, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.5216481594, "unknown_bound_high": 61.5216481594 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 68.1211129132, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.1211129132, "unknown_bound_high": 68.1211129132 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-kosovo-albanian-expulsion", "name": "Expulsion of Kosovo Albanians", "start": 1998, "end": 1999, "date_label": "1998–1999", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Yugoslav and Serbian security forces and associated paramilitaries" ], "victims": [ "Kosovo Albanians" ], "agent_countries": [ "Serbia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Kosovo" ], "container_countries": [ "Kosovo", "Serbia", "Albania", "North Macedonia", "Montenegro" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "During the Kosovo war, Serbian and Yugoslav forces drove hundreds of thousands of Kosovo Albanians across borders or displaced them internally before most returned after the military withdrawal.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The mass expulsion of Kosovo Albanians is absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "During the Kosovo war, Serbian and Yugoslav forces drove hundreds of thousands of Kosovo Albanians across borders or displaced them internally before most returned after the military withdrawal.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_yugoslav_ethnic_cleansing", "title": "Mulaj, Ethnic Cleansing as a Tool of State Building in the Yugoslav Setting", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/nationalities-papers/article/abs/recurrent-tragedy-ethnic-cleansing-as-a-tool-of-state-building-in-the-yugoslav-multinational-setting/E99E10EADF2B45F96147663BEDEACD87" }, { "id": "eu_kosovo_return_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR begins organized repatriation of Kosovar refugees", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/news/press-releases/unhcr-begins-organized-repatriation-kosovar-refugees" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.910249968, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.910249968, "unknown_bound_high": 85.910249968 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 22.204260761, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.204260761, "unknown_bound_high": 22.204260761 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 52.5134912646, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.5134912646, "unknown_bound_high": 52.5134912646 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 53.7562383841, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.7562383841, "unknown_bound_high": 53.7562383841 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-kosovo-postwar-minority-flight", "name": "Postwar flight and expulsion of Serbs, Roma, and other minorities from Kosovo", "start": 1999, "end": 2004, "date_label": "1999–2004", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Kosovo Albanian armed groups, rioters, and local perpetrators amid weak postwar security" ], "victims": [ "Kosovo Serbs", "Roma, Ashkali, and Egyptians", "other non-Albanian minorities and alleged collaborators" ], "agent_countries": [ "Kosovo" ], "victim_countries": [ "Kosovo", "Serbia", "Montenegro" ], "container_countries": [ "Kosovo", "Serbia", "Montenegro" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After Yugoslav forces withdrew and Albanian refugees returned, attacks and intimidation drove many Serbs, Roma, and other minorities from Kosovo; later unrest destroyed additional homes and religious sites.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The reverse-direction minority exodus after June 1999 and renewed 2004 violence is absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After Yugoslav forces withdrew and Albanian refugees returned, attacks and intimidation drove many Serbs, Roma, and other minorities from Kosovo; later unrest destroyed additional homes and religious sites.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_kosovo_return_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR begins organized repatriation of Kosovar refugees", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/news/press-releases/unhcr-begins-organized-repatriation-kosovar-refugees" }, { "id": "eu_yugoslav_ethnic_cleansing", "title": "Mulaj, Ethnic Cleansing as a Tool of State Building in the Yugoslav Setting", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/nationalities-papers/article/abs/recurrent-tragedy-ethnic-cleansing-as-a-tool-of-state-building-in-the-yugoslav-multinational-setting/E99E10EADF2B45F96147663BEDEACD87" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 23.8155998382, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8155998382, "unknown_bound_high": 23.8155998382 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 17.4054905756, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.4054905756, "unknown_bound_high": 17.4054905756 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 17.2599852657, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.2599852657, "unknown_bound_high": 17.2599852657 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 85.0038313895, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.0038313895, "unknown_bound_high": 85.0038313895 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 47.8469429108, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.8469429108, "unknown_bound_high": 47.8469429108 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 60.3128810649, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.3128810649, "unknown_bound_high": 60.3128810649 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-arab-conquest-settlement-maghreb", "name": "Arab conquest and early settlement in the Maghreb", "start": 647, "end": 800, "date_label": "647–c. 800", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Umayyad and Abbasid armies, governors, garrisons, and migrants" ], "victims": [ "Amazigh communities and Byzantine-ruled North African populations subjected to conquest, taxation, enslavement, revolt, and political subordination" ], "agent_countries": [ "Saudi Arabia", "Syria" ], "victim_countries": [ "Libya", "Tunisia", "Algeria", "Morocco" ], "container_countries": [ "Saudi Arabia", "Syria", "Libya", "Tunisia", "Algeria", "Morocco" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "banu-hilal", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Arab forces conquered the Maghreb through repeated campaigns and established garrisons and new states. Amazigh resistance, accommodation, conversion, and participation make this a conquest-and-settlement history, not a simple replacement narrative.", "disputes": "The scale and timing of Arab demographic settlement varied sharply; language shift and Islamization do not by themselves prove displacement.", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas begins with the much later Banu Hilal migration and omits the seventh- and eighth-century conquest, garrison settlement, enslavement, and uneven Arabization that preceded it.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Arab forces conquered the Maghreb through repeated campaigns and established garrisons and new states. Amazigh resistance, accommodation, conversion, and participation make this a conquest-and-settlement history, not a simple replacement narrative.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_arab_conquest_north_africa", "title": "The Arab conquest and the rise of Islam in North Africa", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-history-of-africa/arab-conquest-and-the-rise-of-islam-in-north-africa/5408F1153F068360434FF17207D9E0D1" }, { "id": "qc_arab_maghreb", "title": "Open Archaeology, Arab migration and population change in medieval North Africa", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1515/OPAR-2022-0342" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-arab-conquest-settlement-maghreb", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 65.5250105821, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.5250105821, "unknown_bound_high": 65.5250105821 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 53.2937644458, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.2937644458, "unknown_bound_high": 53.2937644458 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 49.9362993894, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.9362993894, "unknown_bound_high": 49.9362993894 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 9.5718707773, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.5718707773, "unknown_bound_high": 9.5718707773 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.497518456, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 38.2675496325, "unknown_bound_high": 73.9496576842 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 64.2566389083, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.2566389083, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2566389083 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-hazara-war-dispossession", "name": "Hazara conquest, enslavement, and land dispossession", "start": 1888, "end": 1893, "date_label": "1888–1893", "region": "Central and South Asia", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "The Afghan state under Amir Abd al-Rahman Khan", "tribal forces rewarded with Hazara land" ], "victims": [ "Hazara communities of Hazarajat" ], "agent_countries": [ "Afghanistan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Afghanistan" ], "container_countries": [ "Afghanistan", "Pakistan", "Iran" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Abd al-Rahman's forces crushed Hazara resistance through mass violence and enslavement. Large numbers fled or were removed, and confiscated lands were transferred to Pashtun groups and state allies.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the conquest of Hazarajat, mass killing, enslavement, flight, confiscation, and transfer of land to favored groups.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Abd al-Rahman's forces crushed Hazara resistance through mass violence and enslavement. Large numbers fled or were removed, and confiscated lands were transferred to Pashtun groups and state allies.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_hazara_war", "title": "Ibrahimi, The state, identity politics and ethnic boundaries in Afghanistan: Sunni Hazaras", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/nana.12933" }, { "id": "qc_hazara_parliament", "title": "Parliament of Canada, report on the persecution of Hazaras in Afghanistan", "url": "https://www.ourcommons.ca/Content/Committee/441/FAAE/Reports/RP13256076/faaerp27/faaerp27-e.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-hazara-war-dispossession", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.6213455785, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.6213455785, "unknown_bound_high": 80.6213455785 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 56.2248138249, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.2248138249, "unknown_bound_high": 56.2248138249 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.9429218427, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.9429218427, "unknown_bound_high": 50.9429218427 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 33.5356995642, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.5356995642, "unknown_bound_high": 33.5356995642 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 89.5196119042, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.5196119042, "unknown_bound_high": 89.5196119042 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 51.1674210704, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.1674210704, "unknown_bound_high": 51.1674210704 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-pashtun-resettlement-northern-afghanistan", "name": "State-led Pashtun resettlement in northern Afghanistan", "start": 1880, "end": 1921, "date_label": "c. 1880–1921", "region": "Central and South Asia", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Afghan rulers and officials", "Pashtun settlers relocated north" ], "victims": [ "Uzbek, Tajik, Turkmen, Hazara, and other northern communities whose land and political position were altered" ], "agent_countries": [ "Afghanistan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Afghanistan" ], "container_countries": [ "Afghanistan", "Uzbekistan", "Tajikistan", "Turkmenistan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Afghan rulers relocated Pashtun communities to the north to consolidate territorial rule. The policy altered landholding, electoral and ethnic geography, and relations with existing northern populations.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a documented state-building program that redistributed land and planted politically favored settlers in the north.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Afghan rulers relocated Pashtun communities to the north to consolidate territorial rule. The policy altered landholding, electoral and ethnic geography, and relations with existing northern populations.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_pashtun_resettlement", "title": "Population Displacement and State Building: Legacies of Pashtun Resettlement in Afghanistan", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818325101008" }, { "id": "qc_pashtun_north", "title": "Bulletin of the School of Oriental and African Studies, the advent of Pashtun maldars in northwestern Afghanistan", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bulletin-of-the-school-of-oriental-and-african-studies/article/abs/advent-of-pashtun-maldars-in-northwestern-afghanistan/E269974C8CF6F981D7D267E797FD06B2" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-pashtun-resettlement-northern-afghanistan", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 82.0125366551, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.0125366551, "unknown_bound_high": 82.0125366551 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 63.9710756759, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.9710756759, "unknown_bound_high": 63.9710756759 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.8610692879, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.8610692879, "unknown_bound_high": 75.8610692879 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.4533575747, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.4533575747, "unknown_bound_high": 31.4533575747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 31.116125878, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.116125878, "unknown_bound_high": 31.116125878 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 58.2586810763, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.2586810763, "unknown_bound_high": 58.2586810763 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-zionist-settlement-ottoman-mandate-palestine", "name": "Zionist land acquisition, immigration, and institution-building in Ottoman and Mandate Palestine", "start": 1882, "end": 1947, "date_label": "1882–1947", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Zionist institutions", "Jewish immigrants and settlement organizations" ], "victims": [ "Palestinian Arab tenants, laborers, and communities displaced or excluded in particular land purchases and settlement projects" ], "agent_countries": [ "Israel" ], "victim_countries": [ "Palestine", "Israel" ], "container_countries": [ "Palestine", "Israel", "Turkey", "United Kingdom" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "zionist-settlement-1948", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Successive Jewish immigration waves built durable agricultural settlements, urban communities, land institutions, labor organizations, and a parallel polity in Palestine. The process included refugee migration and lawful purchase, but also tenant displacement and an explicit territorial-national settlement project.", "disputes": "The settler-colonial classification is contested because Jews have ancient ties to the land, many migrants were refugees, and there was no conventional metropole. Those facts affect interpretation but do not erase documented land, labor, and territorial practices.", "omission_or_category_error": "The current entry collapses a pre-state settlement project, the 1947–49 mass displacement, and post-state expropriation into one event.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Successive Jewish immigration waves built durable agricultural settlements, urban communities, land institutions, labor organizations, and a parallel polity in Palestine. The process included refugee migration and lawful purchase, but also tenant displacement and an explicit territorial-national settlement project.", "sources": [ { "id": "zionism_paradigm", "title": "Sabbagh-Khoury 2022", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/0032329221999906" }, { "id": "penslar_2017", "title": "Penslar 2017, “Is Zionism a Colonial Movement?”", "url": "https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt1zxz145.15" }, { "id": "zionism_beinin", "title": "Beinin 2022", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108611107.020" }, { "id": "zionism_corrective", "title": "Degani 2026 (corrective)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/13531042.2026.2624932" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-zionist-settlement-ottoman-mandate-palestine", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 50.1422332902, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.1422332902, "unknown_bound_high": 50.1422332902 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 73.491354109, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.491354109, "unknown_bound_high": 73.491354109 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 65.0760370679, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.0760370679, "unknown_bound_high": 65.0760370679 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 46.5502952321, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.5502952321, "unknown_bound_high": 46.5502952321 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 24.3075757704, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.3075757704, "unknown_bound_high": 24.3075757704 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 67.1246583875, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.1246583875, "unknown_bound_high": 67.1246583875 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-nakba-palestinian-displacement", "name": "Nakba: Palestinian expulsion, flight, village destruction, and property transfer", "start": 1947, "end": 1952, "date_label": "1947–1952", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Zionist militias and the Israeli state and military" ], "victims": [ "Palestinian Arabs expelled or driven into flight", "Internally displaced Palestinians barred from returning to their villages" ], "agent_countries": [ "Israel" ], "victim_countries": [ "Palestine", "Israel", "Jordan", "Lebanon", "Syria", "Egypt" ], "container_countries": [ "Israel", "Palestine", "Jordan", "Lebanon", "Syria", "Egypt" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "zionist-settlement-1948", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "War, expulsions, attacks, and fear displaced more than half of Palestine's Arab population. Israel prevented most refugees from returning, destroyed or repurposed hundreds of communities, and transferred extensive refugee land and property to state and Jewish use.", "disputes": "The relative weight of direct expulsion, military assault, fear, local flight decisions, and Arab orders is debated by locality; the mass displacement and prevention of return are not.", "omission_or_category_error": "The current prose mentions refugees but does not give the mass expulsion/flight, destruction of hundreds of villages, prevention of return, and transfer of refugee property its own event.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "War, expulsions, attacks, and fear displaced more than half of Palestine's Arab population. Israel prevented most refugees from returning, destroyed or repurposed hundreds of communities, and transferred extensive refugee land and property to state and Jewish use.", "sources": [ { "id": "morris_revisited", "title": "Morris 2004, Refugee Problem Revisited", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511816659" }, { "id": "unrwa_1948", "title": "UNRWA, Palestinian refugees", "url": "https://www.unrwa.org/resources/un-unrwa/united-nations-and-palestinian-refugees" }, { "id": "clapp_unccp", "title": "UN Economic Survey Mission 1949", "url": "https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-210462/" }, { "id": "mena_nakba_khalidi", "title": "Khalidi, The Palestinians and 1948: the underlying causes of failure", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139167413.005" }, { "id": "mena_1948_refugees", "title": "1948 Refugees, Israel Law Review symposium", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/israel-law-review/article/1948-refugees/1E997E364691F4379C6F77EC05BC84AD" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-nakba-palestinian-displacement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 70.7458352459, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.7458352459, "unknown_bound_high": 70.7458352459 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 78.5539788687, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.5539788687, "unknown_bound_high": 78.5539788687 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.5179344343, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.5179344343, "unknown_bound_high": 83.5179344343 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 86.0720358614, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.0720358614, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0720358614 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.5216481594, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.5216481594, "unknown_bound_high": 61.5216481594 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 70.5612159599, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.5612159599, "unknown_bound_high": 70.5612159599 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-negev-bedouin-dispossession", "name": "Negev Bedouin dispossession, concentration, and village nonrecognition", "start": 1948, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1948–present", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "The Israeli state, military, land authorities, and planning institutions" ], "victims": [ "Palestinian Bedouin citizens and communities in the Naqab/Negev" ], "agent_countries": [ "Israel" ], "victim_countries": [ "Israel", "Palestine" ], "container_countries": [ "Israel", "Palestine" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "zionist-settlement-1948", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After most Negev Bedouin were displaced outside Israel, remaining communities were concentrated in a restricted zone. Land claims were denied, villages left unrecognized, homes repeatedly demolished, and residents pressured or forced into planned townships while Jewish localities expanded.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits post-1948 concentration, land expropriation, unrecognized villages, demolitions, and continuing relocations within Israel.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After most Negev Bedouin were displaced outside Israel, remaining communities were concentrated in a restricted zone. Land claims were denied, villages left unrecognized, homes repeatedly demolished, and residents pressured or forced into planned townships while Jewish localities expanded.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_negev_bedouin_hrw", "title": "Human Rights Watch, Off the Map: Land and Housing Rights in Unrecognized Bedouin Villages", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/2008/03/30/map/land-and-housing-rights-violations-israels-unrecognized-bedouin-villages" }, { "id": "qc_negev_ohchr", "title": "UN special procedures communication on Bedouin displacement in the Negev/Naqab", "url": "https://spcommreports.ohchr.org/TMResultsBase/DownLoadPublicCommunicationFile?gId=29575" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-negev-bedouin-dispossession", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.2513882551, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.2513882551, "unknown_bound_high": 88.2513882551 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 86.6447377081, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.6447377081, "unknown_bound_high": 86.6447377081 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 85.3756475991, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.3756475991, "unknown_bound_high": 85.3756475991 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 63.1902365071, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.1902365071, "unknown_bound_high": 63.1902365071 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 51.5263031187, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.5263031187, "unknown_bound_high": 51.5263031187 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75.7388370692, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.7388370692, "unknown_bound_high": 75.7388370692 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-turkey-kurdish-village-clearances", "name": "Kurdish village destruction and forced displacement in southeastern Turkey", "start": 1984, "end": 1999, "date_label": "1984–1999", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Turkish security forces and village-guard system", "PKK forces in some local expulsions and attacks" ], "victims": [ "Kurdish villagers and other civilians displaced during counterinsurgency" ], "agent_countries": [ "Turkey" ], "victim_countries": [ "Turkey", "Kurdistan (cross-border)" ], "container_countries": [ "Turkey", "Kurdistan (cross-border)" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Counterinsurgency forces evacuated and destroyed thousands of rural settlements, displacing hundreds of thousands of Kurdish villagers; insurgent coercion also contributed in some places.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the depopulation of thousands of settlements and mass internal displacement during the Kurdish conflict.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Counterinsurgency forces evacuated and destroyed thousands of rural settlements, displacing hundreds of thousands of Kurdish villagers; insurgent coercion also contributed in some places.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_turkey_kurdish_clearances", "title": "Human Rights Watch, Kurds continue to be denied rights in Turkey", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/news/1999/05/28/turkey-kurds-continue-be-denied-political-and-cultural-rights" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.895449456, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.895449456, "unknown_bound_high": 90.895449456 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 37.6929339088, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.6929339088, "unknown_bound_high": 37.6929339088 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 1.8577131648, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.8577131648, "unknown_bound_high": 1.8577131648 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 59.9688336584, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.9688336584, "unknown_bound_high": 59.9688336584 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 55.7307773028, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.7307773028, "unknown_bound_high": 55.7307773028 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 57.8809275685, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.8809275685, "unknown_bound_high": 57.8809275685 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-iraq-anfal", "name": "Anfal campaign against Iraqi Kurds", "start": 1987, "end": 1989, "date_label": "1987–1989", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "The Iraqi Ba'athist government, army, and security services" ], "victims": [ "Kurdish rural communities", "Assyrian and other minorities in affected districts" ], "agent_countries": [ "Iraq" ], "victim_countries": [ "Iraq", "Kurdistan (cross-border)" ], "container_countries": [ "Iraq", "Kurdistan (cross-border)" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "iraqi-kurdistan-kirkuk", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Iraq's Anfal campaign used mass execution, chemical attacks, village destruction, detention, and forced relocation to destroy Kurdish rural society across designated zones.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Kirkuk Arabization does not cover the distinct Anfal extermination and village-erasure campaign.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Iraq's Anfal campaign used mass execution, chemical attacks, village destruction, detention, and forced relocation to destroy Kurdish rural society across designated zones.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_iraq_anfal_hrw", "title": "Human Rights Watch, Genocide in Iraq: The Anfal Campaign Against the Kurds", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/legacy/reports/1993/iraqanfal/ANFALINT.htm" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 98.2146439457, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 98.2146439457, "unknown_bound_high": 98.2146439457 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 60.8635257001, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.8635257001, "unknown_bound_high": 60.8635257001 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 2.1015009555, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.1015009555, "unknown_bound_high": 2.1015009555 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.2603619624, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.2603619624, "unknown_bound_high": 69.2603619624 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 84.1334848928, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.1334848928, "unknown_bound_high": 84.1334848928 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 29.8741741234, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.8741741234, "unknown_bound_high": 29.8741741234 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-iraq-marsh-arab-displacement", "name": "Drainage and forced displacement of Iraq's Marsh Arabs", "start": 1991, "end": 2003, "date_label": "1991–2003", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "The Iraqi Ba'athist government, military, and engineering agencies" ], "victims": [ "Ma'dan/Marsh Arab communities of southern Iraq" ], "agent_countries": [ "Iraq" ], "victim_countries": [ "Iraq", "Iran" ], "container_countries": [ "Iraq", "Iran" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After the 1991 uprising, the Iraqi government drained wetlands, destroyed villages, and attacked residents, forcing much of the Marsh Arab population into Iraqi towns, camps, or exile in Iran.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the deliberate ecological destruction and military clearance of the southern marshes.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After the 1991 uprising, the Iraqi government drained wetlands, destroyed villages, and attacked residents, forcing much of the Marsh Arab population into Iraqi towns, camps, or exile in Iran.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_iraq_marsh_arabs_hrw", "title": "Human Rights Watch, Iraqi Refugees, Asylum Seekers, and Displaced Persons", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/mena/iraq021203/2.htm" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.8072140883, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.8072140883, "unknown_bound_high": 93.8072140883 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 50.5932608392, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.5932608392, "unknown_bound_high": 50.5932608392 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 1.8577131648, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.8577131648, "unknown_bound_high": 1.8577131648 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 52.2505337453, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.2505337453, "unknown_bound_high": 52.2505337453 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.0222864237, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.0222864237, "unknown_bound_high": 62.0222864237 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 49.7373518693, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.7373518693, "unknown_bound_high": 49.7373518693 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-isis-yazidi-minority-displacement", "name": "ISIS genocide and displacement of Yazidis and other Iraqi minorities", "start": 2014, "end": 2017, "date_label": "2014–2017", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Islamic State/ISIS" ], "victims": [ "Yazidis", "Christians", "Shia Turkmen", "Shabak and other targeted communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "Iraq", "Syria" ], "victim_countries": [ "Iraq", "Syria", "Kurdistan (cross-border)" ], "container_countries": [ "Iraq", "Syria", "Kurdistan (cross-border)" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "ISIS killed, enslaved, forcibly converted, and displaced Yazidis and other minorities, destroying communities and religious sites and preventing durable return long after territorial defeat.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The genocide, enslavement, and attempted permanent removal of minority populations from ISIS-held territory are absent from the contextual layer.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "ISIS killed, enslaved, forcibly converted, and displaced Yazidis and other minorities, destroying communities and religious sites and preventing durable return long after territorial defeat.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_isis_iraq_ushmm", "title": "United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, Iraq: mass atrocities against minorities", "url": "https://main.ushmm.org/genocide-prevention/countries/iraq" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.8150529792, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.8150529792, "unknown_bound_high": 88.8150529792 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 65.5524139123, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.5524139123, "unknown_bound_high": 65.5524139123 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 34.7097813656, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.7097813656, "unknown_bound_high": 34.7097813656 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 48.5318681746, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.5318681746, "unknown_bound_high": 48.5318681746 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 74.5673594093, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.5673594093, "unknown_bound_high": 74.5673594093 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 16.7065278718, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7065278718, "unknown_bound_high": 16.7065278718 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-imperial-russian-colonization-crimea", "name": "Imperial Russian annexation, Tatar dispossession, and settler colonization of Crimea", "start": 1783, "end": 1917, "date_label": "1783–1917", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "The Russian imperial state", "Russian, Ukrainian, German, Greek, Bulgarian, and other colonists" ], "victims": [ "Crimean Tatars subjected to land loss, coercive administration, and successive mass emigrations" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia", "Ukraine", "Germany", "Greece", "Bulgaria" ], "victim_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Russia", "Turkey" ], "container_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Russia", "Turkey" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "crimea", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After annexing the Crimean Khanate, imperial authorities confiscated and redistributed land, encouraged non-Tatar settlement, and presided over repeated waves of Crimean Tatar emigration, especially after the Crimean War.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The current 243-year wrapper hides the distinct imperial conquest and colonization phase.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After annexing the Crimean Khanate, imperial authorities confiscated and redistributed land, encouraged non-Tatar settlement, and presided over repeated waves of Crimean Tatar emigration, especially after the Crimean War.", "sources": [ { "id": "crimea", "title": "Engelhardt & Shestakova 2022", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-review/article/crimean-tatar-infrastructures-of-decolonial-care/B35AABF132D1501C3D5BC2E98E77A2D7" }, { "id": "qc_imperial_crimea", "title": "Oxford Scholarship Online, Russian imperial conquest and colonization of Crimea", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/book/2312/chapter-abstract/142447607" } ], "rendered_case_id": "ca-imperial-russian-colonization-crimea", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 82.0563209502, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.0563209502, "unknown_bound_high": 82.0563209502 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 81.4359479259, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.4359479259, "unknown_bound_high": 81.4359479259 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 81.4574534208, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.4574534208, "unknown_bound_high": 81.4574534208 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 38.9279641386, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.9279641386, "unknown_bound_high": 38.9279641386 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 43.3850125022, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.3850125022, "unknown_bound_high": 43.3850125022 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 80.7408461788, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.7408461788, "unknown_bound_high": 80.7408461788 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-crimean-tatar-deportation-resettlement", "name": "Soviet deportation of Crimean Tatars and replacement settlement", "start": 1944, "end": 1989, "date_label": "1944–1989", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "The Soviet government and NKVD", "Post-deportation settlers from Russia and Ukraine" ], "victims": [ "The Crimean Tatar people, deported collectively to Central Asia and other Soviet regions" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia", "Ukraine" ], "victim_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Russia", "Uzbekistan", "Kazakhstan", "Tajikistan" ], "container_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Russia", "Uzbekistan", "Kazakhstan", "Tajikistan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "crimea", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "In May 1944 the NKVD deported nearly the entire Crimean Tatar population. Their homes and lands were transferred to incoming settlers, Crimean Tatar institutions and place names were erased, and return was effectively prohibited until the late Soviet period.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The current wrapper fails to isolate a total ethnic deportation, property seizure, place-name erasure, replacement settlement, and decades-long ban on return.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "In May 1944 the NKVD deported nearly the entire Crimean Tatar population. Their homes and lands were transferred to incoming settlers, Crimean Tatar institutions and place names were erased, and return was effectively prohibited until the late Soviet period.", "sources": [ { "id": "crimea_pohl", "title": "Pohl 2000, “Deportation of the Crimean Tatars”", "url": "https://www.hlrn.org/img/violation/Crimean_Tatar_Deportations.pdf" }, { "id": "ca_crimean_tatar_deportation", "title": "Memory of Forced Displacements among Crimean Tatars", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/nationalities-papers/article/memory-of-forced-displacements-in-the-discourse-and-coping-strategies-of-crimean-tatars-in-post2014-crimea/7042DA03FBFAB64F3709EFBBFC2CF31C" } ], "rendered_case_id": "ca-crimean-tatar-deportation-resettlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.6482528547, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.6482528547, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6482528547 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 66.0972917839, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.0972917839, "unknown_bound_high": 66.0972917839 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 84.5953809049, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.5953809049, "unknown_bound_high": 84.5953809049 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 64.5344471628, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.5344471628, "unknown_bound_high": 64.5344471628 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 51.9509056192, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.9509056192, "unknown_bound_high": 51.9509056192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-russian-occupation-crimea-demographic-transfer", "name": "Occupation-era repression and Russian civilian transfer into Crimea", "start": 2014, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2014–present", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "The Russian Federation and occupation authorities", "Russian citizens transferred or encouraged to settle in occupied Crimea" ], "victims": [ "Crimean Tatars and other Ukrainian residents subjected to repression, dispossession, induced departure, or barriers to residence" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Russia" ], "container_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "crimea", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Since annexing Crimea in 2014, Russia has repressed opponents, displaced some residents, appropriated property, and transferred or facilitated the movement of Russian citizens into occupied territory, conduct international monitors analyze under occupation law.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The current wrapper mentions occupation but does not present post-2014 civilian population transfer and displacement as a legally and historically distinct process.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Since annexing Crimea in 2014, Russia has repressed opponents, displaced some residents, appropriated property, and transferred or facilitated the movement of Russian citizens into occupied territory, conduct international monitors analyze under occupation law.", "sources": [ { "id": "ohchr_crimea", "title": "UN Human Rights 2024 (Crimea)", "url": "https://ukraine.ohchr.org/en/Russian-Federation%E2%80%99s-decade-long-occupation-of-Crimea-marked-by-widespread-violations" }, { "id": "qc_occupied_crimea", "title": "OHCHR, situation of human rights in temporarily occupied Crimea, 2014–2017", "url": "https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Countries/UA/Crimea2014_2017_EN.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "ca-russian-occupation-crimea-demographic-transfer", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 89.2275089271, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.2275089271, "unknown_bound_high": 89.2275089271 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 86.9879829952, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.9879829952, "unknown_bound_high": 86.9879829952 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 54.3608020141, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.3608020141, "unknown_bound_high": 54.3608020141 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 28.7962668938, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.7962668938, "unknown_bound_high": 28.7962668938 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.2873256019, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.2873256019, "unknown_bound_high": 34.2873256019 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 66.9293335326, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.9293335326, "unknown_bound_high": 66.9293335326 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-soviet-korean-deportation", "name": "Soviet deportation of Koreans from the Far East", "start": 1937, "end": 1937, "date_label": "1937", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "The Soviet government and NKVD" ], "victims": [ "Soviet Koreans removed collectively from the Russian Far East" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Russia", "Kazakhstan", "Uzbekistan", "North Korea", "South Korea" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia", "Kazakhstan", "Uzbekistan", "North Korea", "South Korea" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The Soviet state deported the Korean population of the Far East to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, confiscating property and imposing lethal transport and resettlement conditions.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the first Soviet deportation of an entire ethnic population and its forced resettlement in Central Asia.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The Soviet state deported the Korean population of the Far East to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, confiscating property and imposing lethal transport and resettlement conditions.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_soviet_deportations_smith", "title": "Jeremy Smith, Deportations, in Red Nations", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139047746.008" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.6482528547, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.6482528547, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6482528547 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 54.7233089087, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.7233089087, "unknown_bound_high": 54.7233089087 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.5818646046, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5075371019, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4208973294, "unknown_bound_high": 91.6671871435 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 56.637344976, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.637344976, "unknown_bound_high": 56.637344976 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 79.8689336255, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9038663149, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.1908387115, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8042072209 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-soviet-volga-german-deportation", "name": "Soviet deportation of Volga Germans", "start": 1941, "end": 1955, "date_label": "1941–1955", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "The Soviet government and NKVD" ], "victims": [ "Volga Germans and other Soviet German communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Russia", "Kazakhstan", "Germany" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia", "Kazakhstan", "Germany" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After Germany invaded the USSR, Soviet authorities abolished Volga German autonomy and deported German communities eastward into special settlements and forced labor, without individualized findings of disloyalty.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The dissolution of the Volga German republic, collective deportation, labor-army confinement, and special-settlement regime are absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After Germany invaded the USSR, Soviet authorities abolished Volga German autonomy and deported German communities eastward into special settlements and forced labor, without individualized findings of disloyalty.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_soviet_deportations_smith", "title": "Jeremy Smith, Deportations, in Red Nations", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139047746.008" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.6482528547, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.6482528547, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6482528547 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 60.2270842595, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.2270842595, "unknown_bound_high": 60.2270842595 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.8197115707, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.8197115707, "unknown_bound_high": 75.8197115707 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 67.7526818264, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.7526818264, "unknown_bound_high": 67.7526818264 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.6379035723, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.6379035723, "unknown_bound_high": 77.6379035723 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-soviet-chechen-ingush-deportation", "name": "Soviet deportation of Chechens and Ingush and settler redistribution of their territory", "start": 1944, "end": 1957, "date_label": "1944–1957", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "The Soviet government and NKVD", "Settlers and neighboring administrative units receiving confiscated land" ], "victims": [ "Chechen and Ingush peoples deported collectively to Central Asia" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Russia", "Kazakhstan", "Kyrgyzstan" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia", "Kazakhstan", "Kyrgyzstan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The Soviet state deported virtually the entire Chechen and Ingush populations, dissolved their republic, reassigned territory, and resettled homes and farms. Survivors were allowed to return after 1957, creating new conflicts over restored land.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits collective deportation, abolition of autonomy, redistribution of homes and territory, and a delayed right of return.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The Soviet state deported virtually the entire Chechen and Ingush populations, dissolved their republic, reassigned territory, and resettled homes and farms. Survivors were allowed to return after 1957, creating new conflicts over restored land.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_soviet_deportations_smith", "title": "Jeremy Smith, Deportations, in Red Nations", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139047746.008" }, { "id": "qc_chechen_ingush", "title": "Scholarly study of the Soviet deportation of the Chechen and Ingush peoples", "url": "https://repositorio.iscte-iul.pt/bitstream/10071/36296/1/article_114217.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "ca-soviet-chechen-ingush-deportation", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.6482528547, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.6482528547, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6482528547 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 65.9400247887, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.9400247887, "unknown_bound_high": 65.9400247887 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 70.4272687837, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.4272687837, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4272687837 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 76.7637157109, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.7637157109, "unknown_bound_high": 76.7637157109 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.0688471643, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.0688471643, "unknown_bound_high": 68.0688471643 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 23.1750523935, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.1750523935, "unknown_bound_high": 23.1750523935 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-soviet-meskhetian-turk-deportation", "name": "Soviet deportation of Meskhetian Turks from Georgia", "start": 1944, "end": 1944, "date_label": "1944", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "The Soviet government and NKVD" ], "victims": [ "Meskhetian/Ahıska Turks and other Muslim communities of southern Georgia" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia", "Georgia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Georgia", "Uzbekistan", "Kazakhstan", "Kyrgyzstan", "Azerbaijan", "Turkey" ], "container_countries": [ "Georgia", "Uzbekistan", "Kazakhstan", "Kyrgyzstan", "Azerbaijan", "Turkey", "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Soviet authorities deported Meskhetian Turks and related Muslim groups from the Turkish border zone to Central Asia. Their property was redistributed, and most have never obtained an effective return to their home region.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The removal of a regional population and continuing obstruction of return are absent.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Soviet authorities deported Meskhetian Turks and related Muslim groups from the Turkish border zone to Central Asia. Their property was redistributed, and most have never obtained an effective return to their home region.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_soviet_deportations_smith", "title": "Jeremy Smith, Deportations, in Red Nations", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139047746.008" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.6482528547, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.6482528547, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6482528547 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 56.6254858772, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.6254858772, "unknown_bound_high": 56.6254858772 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.1628464243, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.1628464243, "unknown_bound_high": 68.1628464243 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 95.2384288579, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 95.2384288579, "unknown_bound_high": 95.2384288579 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.5006854256, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.5006854256, "unknown_bound_high": 61.5006854256 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 64.1182023767, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.1182023767, "unknown_bound_high": 64.1182023767 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-nagorno-karabakh-armenian-exodus-2023", "name": "Forced exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh", "start": 2023, "end": 2023, "date_label": "2023", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "The Azerbaijani state and armed forces" ], "victims": [ "The Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh" ], "agent_countries": [ "Azerbaijan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Azerbaijan", "Armenia" ], "container_countries": [ "Azerbaijan", "Armenia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Following prolonged blockade and Azerbaijan's September 2023 offensive, nearly the entire Armenian population fled Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia under conditions that legal scholars and rights investigators analyze as forced displacement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the near-total removal of Nagorno-Karabakh's Armenian population after blockade and military attack.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Following prolonged blockade and Azerbaijan's September 2023 offensive, nearly the entire Armenian population fled Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia under conditions that legal scholars and rights investigators analyze as forced displacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "ca_nagorno_karabakh_2023", "title": "The Prohibition on Forced Displacement and the Right to Return", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-and-comparative-law-quarterly/article/prohibition-on-forced-displacement-the-right-to-leave-nonrefoulement-and-the-right-to-return-four-sides-of-the-same-coin/F647D9330B0723ED1D7958C8E3C2C670" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.9069754088, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.9069754088, "unknown_bound_high": 90.9069754088 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 47.6571214265, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.6571214265, "unknown_bound_high": 47.6571214265 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 82.2199503081, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.2199503081, "unknown_bound_high": 82.2199503081 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 45.261038923, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.261038923, "unknown_bound_high": 45.261038923 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 74.5941808388, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.5941808388, "unknown_bound_high": 74.5941808388 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-abkhazia-ethnic-cleansing", "name": "Expulsion of Georgians from Abkhazia", "start": 1992, "end": 1993, "date_label": "1992–1993", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Abkhaz separatist forces and allied North Caucasian and Russian forces" ], "victims": [ "Georgians and other residents expelled from Abkhazia", "Abkhaz civilians displaced during the war's earlier phases" ], "agent_countries": [ "Georgia", "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Georgia", "Russia" ], "container_countries": [ "Georgia", "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The war culminated in the mass expulsion of Abkhazia's Georgian population and the appropriation of abandoned property. Earlier violence also displaced Abkhaz residents, but the postwar demographic transformation was overwhelmingly produced by Georgian removal.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits mass expulsion, blocked return, and appropriation of abandoned homes after the Abkhazia war.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The war culminated in the mass expulsion of Abkhazia's Georgian population and the appropriation of abandoned property. Earlier violence also displaced Abkhaz residents, but the postwar demographic transformation was overwhelmingly produced by Georgian removal.", "sources": [ { "id": "ca_abkhazia_displacement", "title": "Peinhopf, Forced Expulsion and Appropriation of Abandoned Property in Abkhazia", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/nationalities-papers/article/curse-of-displacement-local-narratives-of-forced-expulsion-and-the-appropriation-of-abandoned-property-in-abkhazia/4B8B7A60B93D5B2B982CC748664D76FB" }, { "id": "ca_georgia_displacement", "title": "Religious Responses to Forced Migration in Georgia", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/religion-and-forced-displacement-in-eastern-europe-the-caucasus-and-central-asia/forgotten-by-many-and-remembered-by-few-religious-responses-to-forced-migration-in-georgia/4C0AEFAB546D44D0B14C9B4BF0965A84" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.5649502121, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.5649502121, "unknown_bound_high": 80.5649502121 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.7659451728, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.7659451728, "unknown_bound_high": 69.7659451728 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 5.5731394944, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.5731394944, "unknown_bound_high": 5.5731394944 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.7210423681, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.7210423681, "unknown_bound_high": 61.7210423681 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.16724663, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.16724663, "unknown_bound_high": 62.16724663 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 63.4918163295, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.4918163295, "unknown_bound_high": 63.4918163295 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-osh-uzbek-displacement", "name": "Osh violence and displacement of Uzbeks in southern Kyrgyzstan", "start": 2010, "end": 2010, "date_label": "2010", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Kyrgyz mobs and complicit or ineffective state forces", "Uzbek groups in some attacks" ], "victims": [ "Ethnic Uzbeks, who bore most deaths, destruction, and displacement", "Kyrgyz civilians attacked in some districts" ], "agent_countries": [ "Kyrgyzstan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Kyrgyzstan", "Uzbekistan" ], "container_countries": [ "Kyrgyzstan", "Uzbekistan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Four days of violence in Osh and Jalal-Abad killed hundreds and burned minority neighborhoods, sending large numbers of Uzbeks across the border or into internal displacement before most returned.", "disputes": "Claims of planned demographic engineering after the riots require stronger site-level evidence than the well-established violence and displacement findings.", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a major episode of ethnic violence, neighborhood destruction, refugee flight, and contested demographic engineering.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Four days of violence in Osh and Jalal-Abad killed hundreds and burned minority neighborhoods, sending large numbers of Uzbeks across the border or into internal displacement before most returned.", "sources": [ { "id": "ca_osh_violence", "title": "Ethnic Riots and Prosocial Behavior: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305541900042X" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 27.31161541, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.31161541, "unknown_bound_high": 27.31161541 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 39.3927141202, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.3927141202, "unknown_bound_high": 39.3927141202 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 4.8563247688, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.8563247688, "unknown_bound_high": 4.8563247688 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 38.7545592523, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.7545592523, "unknown_bound_high": 38.7545592523 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 44.2992751145, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.2992751145, "unknown_bound_high": 44.2992751145 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 41.0991754021, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.0991754021, "unknown_bound_high": 41.0991754021 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-chechen-wars-displacement", "name": "Mass civilian displacement in the Chechen wars", "start": 1994, "end": 2009, "date_label": "1994–2009", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Russian federal forces and Russian-backed Chechen authorities", "Chechen separatist forces in some abuses" ], "victims": [ "Chechen civilians", "Russian and other non-Chechen residents who fled violence and insecurity" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Russia", "Georgia", "Kazakhstan" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia", "Georgia", "Kazakhstan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Two wars and counterinsurgency devastated Chechnya and displaced much of its population internally and abroad. This is a major forced-displacement case but not, on present evidence, a settler-colonial replacement project.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits repeated mass displacement and destruction in Chechnya, while the event does not meet the settlement threshold without evidence of replacement settlement.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Two wars and counterinsurgency devastated Chechnya and displaced much of its population internally and abroad. This is a major forced-displacement case but not, on present evidence, a settler-colonial replacement project.", "sources": [ { "id": "ca_chechnya_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Return and displacement after the Chechen wars", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/uk/news/stories/unhcr-helps-returnees-rebuild-their-lives-stability-returns-chechnya" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 74.2969390672, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.2969390672, "unknown_bound_high": 74.2969390672 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 27.6254246025, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.6254246025, "unknown_bound_high": 27.6254246025 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 22.1989581783, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.1989581783, "unknown_bound_high": 22.1989581783 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.0457112498, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.0457112498, "unknown_bound_high": 63.0457112498 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 25.8451061131, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.8451061131, "unknown_bound_high": 25.8451061131 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-russian-occupation-ukraine-forced-transfer", "name": "Russian occupation, forced transfer, deportation, and property seizure in Ukraine", "start": 2022, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2022–present", "region": "Europe and Eurasia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "The Russian Federation, its armed forces, occupation authorities, and affiliated institutions" ], "victims": [ "Ukrainian civilians forcibly transferred within occupied territory or deported to Russia", "Ukrainian children unlawfully transferred or deported", "Residents pressured to leave through detention, torture, legal coercion, property confiscation, and denial of services" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Russia", "Belarus" ], "container_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Russia", "Belarus" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "UN investigators document direct and coercively induced transfer from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, confiscation and reallocation of homes, pressure to accept Russian citizenship, and obstacles to return. The ICC has issued warrants concerning the alleged unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children.", "disputes": "The broader war has displaced millions through combat as well as coercion. This event is limited to documented occupation practices and does not count every war refugee as a victim of a demographic-transfer policy.", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas stops at earlier Russian/Soviet colonization and omits documented forcible transfer, deportation, property seizure, and barriers to return under the current occupation.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "UN investigators document direct and coercively induced transfer from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, confiscation and reallocation of homes, pressure to accept Russian citizenship, and obstacles to return. The ICC has issued warrants concerning the alleged unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children.", "sources": [ { "id": "ca_ukraine_forced_displacement_ohchr", "title": "OHCHR, Forced displacement from Ukrainian territory occupied by the Russian Federation, 2022–2025", "url": "https://ukraine.ohchr.org/en/Forced-displacement-from-territory-of-Ukraine-occupied-by-the-Russian-Federation" }, { "id": "ca_ukraine_deported_children_icc", "title": "International Criminal Court, Situation in Ukraine", "url": "https://www.icc-cpi.int/situations/ukraine" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.8288010032, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.8288010032, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8288010032 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 80.1755614725, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.1755614725, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1755614725 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 55.0761946007, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.0761946007, "unknown_bound_high": 55.0761946007 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 38.0579897279, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.0579897279, "unknown_bound_high": 38.0579897279 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.5969827652, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.5969827652, "unknown_bound_high": 63.5969827652 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 51.4612023884, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.4612023884, "unknown_bound_high": 51.4612023884 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-burundi-1972-selective-killings-exile", "name": "Burundi's 1972 mass killing and Hutu refugee exodus", "start": 1972, "end": 1973, "date_label": "1972–1973", "region": "Great Lakes Africa", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Burundian army and government authorities under the Micombero regime" ], "victims": [ "Hutu civilians, educated elites, and refugees driven from Burundi" ], "agent_countries": [ "Burundi" ], "victim_countries": [ "Burundi" ], "container_countries": [ "Burundi", "Tanzania", "Rwanda", "Democratic Republic of the Congo" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "State violence following a rebellion killed large numbers of Hutu and sent survivors into neighboring states; many refugees remained outside Burundi for decades.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the targeted 1972 killings and the long-lived refugee population they created.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "State violence following a rebellion killed large numbers of Hutu and sent survivors into neighboring states; many refugees remained outside Burundi for decades.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_burundi_1972_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, programme to resolve the situation of 1972 Burundian refugees", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/news/stories/unhcr-begins-programme-resolve-situation-1972-burundian-refugees" }, { "id": "modern_burundi_crises_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Burundi recurring crises and large-scale displacement", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/us/sites/en-us/files/legacy-pdf/4a5f436d9.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 71.409026781, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.409026781, "unknown_bound_high": 71.409026781 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 21.1575326502, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.1575326502, "unknown_bound_high": 21.1575326502 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 32.6832133591, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.6832133591, "unknown_bound_high": 32.6832133591 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 56.8174306104, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.8174306104, "unknown_bound_high": 56.8174306104 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 29.8741741234, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.8741741234, "unknown_bound_high": 29.8741741234 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-burundi-civil-war-displacement", "name": "Burundi civil war and renewed mass displacement", "start": 1993, "end": 2005, "date_label": "1993–2005", "region": "Great Lakes Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Burundian armed forces, Hutu rebel organizations, and associated militias" ], "victims": [ "Hutu and Tutsi civilians displaced inside Burundi or into neighboring countries" ], "agent_countries": [ "Burundi" ], "victim_countries": [ "Burundi" ], "container_countries": [ "Burundi", "Tanzania", "Rwanda", "Democratic Republic of the Congo" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The assassination of President Melchior Ndadaye was followed by civil war, massacres, forced regroupment, internal displacement, and another mass refugee crisis.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a second, distinct cycle of reciprocal killing, forced regroupment, flight, and exile after 1993.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The assassination of President Melchior Ndadaye was followed by civil war, massacres, forced regroupment, internal displacement, and another mass refugee crisis.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_burundi_crises_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Burundi recurring crises and large-scale displacement", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/us/sites/en-us/files/legacy-pdf/4a5f436d9.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 89.4480719783, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.4480719783, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4480719783 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 17.5800273621, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.5800273621, "unknown_bound_high": 17.5800273621 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.6266863032, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.6266863032, "unknown_bound_high": 26.6266863032 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 66.4499863036, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.4499863036, "unknown_bound_high": 66.4499863036 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 14.4543377725, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4543377725, "unknown_bound_high": 14.4543377725 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-first-congo-war-refugee-camp-clearance", "name": "First Congo War and destruction of refugee camps in eastern Zaire", "start": 1996, "end": 1997, "date_label": "1996–1997", "region": "Great Lakes Africa", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire and Rwandan allied forces" ], "victims": [ "Rwandan Hutu refugees and Congolese civilians killed, dispersed, or forced to flee" ], "agent_countries": [ "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Rwanda" ], "victim_countries": [ "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Rwanda" ], "container_countries": [ "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Rwanda", "Tanzania", "Republic of the Congo" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Regional forces attacked camps holding refugees from Rwanda, driving large return movements while other refugees fled westward and Congolese communities were displaced.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the violent dismantling of eastern Zaire's refugee camps and the dispersal and killing that followed.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Regional forces attacked camps holding refugees from Rwanda, driving large return movements while other refugees fled westward and Congolese communities were displaced.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_drc_conflicts_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, successive conflicts and displacement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/news/briefing-notes/democratic-republic-congo-rwanda-and-unhcr-discuss-returns" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 72.5117205022, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.5117205022, "unknown_bound_high": 72.5117205022 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.1529109742, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1529109742, "unknown_bound_high": 7.1529109742 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 88.7268336174, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.7268336174, "unknown_bound_high": 88.7268336174 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 56.024412443, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.024412443, "unknown_bound_high": 56.024412443 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 40.5217440523, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.5217440523, "unknown_bound_high": 40.5217440523 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-darfur-ethnic-cleansing-displacement", "name": "Darfur mass killing, village destruction, and displacement", "start": 2003, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2003–present", "region": "Northeastern Africa", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Sudanese government forces, Janjaweed and successor militia formations, and other armed actors" ], "victims": [ "Fur, Masalit, Zaghawa, and other Darfuri civilian communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "Sudan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Sudan" ], "container_countries": [ "Sudan", "Chad", "Central African Republic" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Government-backed forces and militias attacked civilian communities, burned settlements, and forced millions into camps or across borders; later violence repeatedly prevented durable return.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the targeted destruction of villages, land seizure, and mass displacement in Darfur.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Government-backed forces and militias attacked civilian communities, burned settlements, and forced millions into camps or across borders; later violence repeatedly prevented durable return.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_darfur_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Darfur refugees fleeing bombardment and militia attacks", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/us/news/press-releases/unhcr-relocation-operation-darfur-refugees-tops-100-000" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 75.5993454617, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3760629834, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.4301154001, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8238170566 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 61.7963000973, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1440639353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.9026181786, "unknown_bound_high": 94.4962246493 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1096713043, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.2253478189, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 80.4952049802, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 51.7728189627, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4549270144 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 68.5990820992, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4866918703, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.3866155676, "unknown_bound_high": 84.7174285377 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-sudan-war-displacement-2023", "name": "Sudan war and nationwide mass displacement", "start": 2023, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2023–present", "region": "Northeastern Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Sudanese Armed Forces, Rapid Support Forces, and allied armed formations" ], "victims": [ "Civilians displaced from Khartoum, Darfur, Kordofan, Gezira, and other regions" ], "agent_countries": [ "Sudan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Sudan" ], "container_countries": [ "Sudan", "Chad", "South Sudan", "Egypt", "Ethiopia", "Central African Republic", "Libya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "War between rival military formations produced mass internal flight and cross-border refugee movements, including renewed ethnically targeted violence in Darfur.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the separate nationwide displacement emergency that began in April 2023.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "War between rival military formations produced mass internal flight and cross-border refugee movements, including renewed ethnically targeted violence in Darfur.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_sudan_2023_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR Sudan Situation Appeal 2026", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/2026-02/UNHCR%20Sudan%20Situation%20Appeal%202026.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 68.9410083937, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.9410083937, "unknown_bound_high": 68.9410083937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 9.7583715819, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.7583715819, "unknown_bound_high": 9.7583715819 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 55.4097609895, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.4097609895, "unknown_bound_high": 55.4097609895 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 57.6595842384, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.6595842384, "unknown_bound_high": 57.6595842384 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 43.426589796, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.426589796, "unknown_bound_high": 43.426589796 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-south-sudan-civil-war-displacement", "name": "South Sudan civil war and mass displacement", "start": 2013, "end": 2018, "date_label": "2013–2018", "region": "Northeastern Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "South Sudanese government forces, opposition forces, and associated militias" ], "victims": [ "South Sudanese civilians targeted or uprooted along ethnic and political lines" ], "agent_countries": [ "South Sudan" ], "victim_countries": [ "South Sudan" ], "container_countries": [ "South Sudan", "Sudan", "Uganda", "Ethiopia", "Kenya", "Democratic Republic of the Congo" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Political conflict became a civil war involving ethnically targeted killings, destruction of settlements, internal displacement, and flight to every neighboring state.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the displacement of millions during South Sudan's civil war.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Political conflict became a civil war involving ethnically targeted killings, destruction of settlements, internal displacement, and flight to every neighboring state.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_south_sudan_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, culture, context and mental health in South Sudanese displacement", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/africa/sites/afr/files/2023-03/63eba35c7.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 53.9600006694, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.9600006694, "unknown_bound_high": 53.9600006694 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 5.3010197962, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.3010197962, "unknown_bound_high": 5.3010197962 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 3.7154263296, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.7154263296, "unknown_bound_high": 3.7154263296 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 50.4536694461, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.4536694461, "unknown_bound_high": 50.4536694461 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.5520553592, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.5520553592, "unknown_bound_high": 52.5520553592 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 29.5025749175, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9038663149, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.6663836709, "unknown_bound_high": 36.2797521804 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-isaaq-clearance-northern-somalia", "name": "Isaaq civilian clearance in northern Somalia", "start": 1988, "end": 1991, "date_label": "1988–1991", "region": "Horn of Africa", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Somali government armed forces under Siad Barre" ], "victims": [ "Isaaq civilians in Hargeisa, Burao, and surrounding northern regions" ], "agent_countries": [ "Somalia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Somalia" ], "container_countries": [ "Somalia", "Ethiopia", "Djibouti" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Government forces devastated northern cities and rural communities during the war with the Somali National Movement, sending hundreds of thousands into Ethiopia and internal exile.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the deliberate bombardment, killing, and mass flight of Isaaq civilians before state collapse.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Government forces devastated northern cities and rural communities during the war with the Somali National Movement, sending hundreds of thousands into Ethiopia and internal exile.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_somalia_isaaq_hrw", "title": "Human Rights Watch, Hostages to Peace: threats and the 1988 Isaaq clearance", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/2009/07/13/hostages-peace/threats-human-rights-and-democracy-somaliland" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.362854022, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.362854022, "unknown_bound_high": 87.362854022 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.8196964991, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.8196964991, "unknown_bound_high": 12.8196964991 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 44.5046556359, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.5046556359, "unknown_bound_high": 44.5046556359 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 65.073644288, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.073644288, "unknown_bound_high": 65.073644288 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.0457112498, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.0457112498, "unknown_bound_high": 63.0457112498 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 2.4033421274, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.4033421274, "unknown_bound_high": 2.4033421274 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-angola-civil-war-displacement", "name": "Angolan civil war displacement", "start": 1975, "end": 2002, "date_label": "1975–2002", "region": "Southern Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "MPLA government forces, UNITA, foreign intervening forces, and associated armed groups" ], "victims": [ "Angolan civilians uprooted by war, forced recruitment, landmines, and destruction of rural settlements" ], "agent_countries": [ "Angola", "Cuba", "South Africa", "Democratic Republic of the Congo" ], "victim_countries": [ "Angola" ], "container_countries": [ "Angola", "Zambia", "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Namibia", "Republic of the Congo" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Nearly continuous war after independence emptied rural areas, forced people into towns or neighboring states, and left landmine contamination that obstructed return.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits mass rural displacement and exile during Angola's post-independence civil war.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Nearly continuous war after independence emptied rural areas, forced people into towns or neighboring states, and left landmine contamination that obstructed return.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_angola_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR Angola: repatriation after the long civil war", "url": "https://data.unhcr.org/en/country/ago" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 65.9651908492, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.9651908492, "unknown_bound_high": 65.9651908492 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 6.4801581602, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.4801581602, "unknown_bound_high": 6.4801581602 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 22.6066318254, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.6066318254, "unknown_bound_high": 22.6066318254 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 56.9386750553, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.9386750553, "unknown_bound_high": 56.9386750553 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 20.7650998458, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.7650998458, "unknown_bound_high": 20.7650998458 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-mozambique-civil-war-displacement", "name": "Mozambican civil war displacement", "start": 1977, "end": 1992, "date_label": "1977–1992", "region": "Southern Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "FRELIMO government forces, RENAMO, and external sponsors" ], "victims": [ "Mozambican civilians displaced internally or into neighboring states" ], "agent_countries": [ "Mozambique", "South Africa", "Zimbabwe" ], "victim_countries": [ "Mozambique" ], "container_countries": [ "Mozambique", "Malawi", "Zimbabwe", "Zambia", "Tanzania", "South Africa", "Eswatini" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Attacks on civilians, destruction of villages, insecurity, and state countermeasures displaced millions before the 1992 peace agreement enabled large-scale return.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits wartime depopulation of rural districts and one of Africa's largest postwar returns.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Attacks on civilians, destruction of villages, insecurity, and state countermeasures displaced millions before the 1992 peace agreement enabled large-scale return.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_mozambique_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Mozambique revisited after civil-war displacement", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/africa/publications/refugees-magazine-issue-112-going-home-mozambique-revisited-home-sweet-home" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 52.9488779102, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.9488779102, "unknown_bound_high": 52.9488779102 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.6668112669, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.6668112669, "unknown_bound_high": 12.6668112669 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 32.9332152297, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.9332152297, "unknown_bound_high": 32.9332152297 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.8274765862, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.8274765862, "unknown_bound_high": 59.8274765862 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 8.8905574673, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.8905574673, "unknown_bound_high": 8.8905574673 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-sierra-leone-civil-war-displacement", "name": "Sierra Leone civil war displacement", "start": 1991, "end": 2002, "date_label": "1991–2002", "region": "West Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Revolutionary United Front, Armed Forces Revolutionary Council, government forces, and allied militias" ], "victims": [ "Sierra Leonean civilians subjected to attacks, forced recruitment, mutilation, and flight" ], "agent_countries": [ "Sierra Leone" ], "victim_countries": [ "Sierra Leone" ], "container_countries": [ "Sierra Leone", "Guinea", "Liberia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Armed groups attacked towns and villages, conscripted civilians, and repeatedly shifted control, driving much of the population from home.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits widespread internal displacement and refugee flight during the civil war.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Armed groups attacked towns and villages, conscripted civilians, and repeatedly shifted control, driving much of the population from home.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_sierra_leone_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR Global Appeal 1999: Sierra Leone", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/africa/publications/unhcr-global-appeal-1999-sierra-leone" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 36.5595173339, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.5595173339, "unknown_bound_high": 36.5595173339 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.8566933303, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.8566933303, "unknown_bound_high": 10.8566933303 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.234450261, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.234450261, "unknown_bound_high": 31.234450261 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.9885246865, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.9885246865, "unknown_bound_high": 58.9885246865 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 2.8641520454, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.8641520454, "unknown_bound_high": 2.8641520454 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-lra-northern-uganda-displacement", "name": "LRA war and forced displacement in northern Uganda", "start": 1987, "end": 2006, "date_label": "1987–2006", "region": "East Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Lord's Resistance Army and Ugandan government forces" ], "victims": [ "Acholi and other northern Ugandan civilians, including abducted children and residents forced into camps" ], "agent_countries": [ "Uganda" ], "victim_countries": [ "Uganda" ], "container_countries": [ "Uganda", "Sudan", "South Sudan", "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Central African Republic" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "LRA attacks and abductions combined with government counterinsurgency and compulsory movement into camps to displace a large share of northern Uganda's population.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits rebel abduction and government-directed encampment that uprooted most rural residents of the north.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "LRA attacks and abductions combined with government counterinsurgency and compulsory movement into camps to displace a large share of northern Uganda's population.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_uganda_lra_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, displacement caused by the LRA war in northern Uganda", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/uk/node/10759" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.895449456, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.895449456, "unknown_bound_high": 90.895449456 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 19.7009659894, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.7009659894, "unknown_bound_high": 19.7009659894 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 39.2397441562, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.2397441562, "unknown_bound_high": 39.2397441562 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 66.8856268733, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.8856268733, "unknown_bound_high": 66.8856268733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 8.8905574673, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.8905574673, "unknown_bound_high": 8.8905574673 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-central-african-republic-conflict-displacement", "name": "Central African Republic conflict displacement", "start": 2012, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2012–present", "region": "Central Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Séléka, anti-Balaka, government and foreign forces, and other armed groups" ], "victims": [ "Central African civilians displaced amid sectarian targeting and armed territorial control" ], "agent_countries": [ "Central African Republic" ], "victim_countries": [ "Central African Republic" ], "container_countries": [ "Central African Republic", "Cameroon", "Chad", "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "Republic of the Congo", "Sudan", "South Sudan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "State collapse, militia rule, communal attacks, and repeated offensives displaced communities throughout the country and into every neighboring region.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the long-running internal and cross-border displacement crisis beginning in 2012.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "State collapse, militia rule, communal attacks, and repeated offensives displaced communities throughout the country and into every neighboring region.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_car_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Central African Republic conflict and mass displacement", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/news/stories/more-850-000-people-volatile-central-african-republic-remain-displaced" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 39.1740998119, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.1740998119, "unknown_bound_high": 39.1740998119 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.7042235662, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.7042235662, "unknown_bound_high": 10.7042235662 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 3.7154263296, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.7154263296, "unknown_bound_high": 3.7154263296 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.6316893646, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.6316893646, "unknown_bound_high": 31.6316893646 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.1334848928, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.1334848928, "unknown_bound_high": 59.1334848928 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 23.4647281055, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.4647281055, "unknown_bound_high": 23.4647281055 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-biafra-war-displacement", "name": "Biafran war siege, flight, and internal displacement", "start": 1966, "end": 1970, "date_label": "1966–1970", "region": "West Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Nigerian federal forces, Biafran forces, and participants in anti-Igbo massacres" ], "victims": [ "Igbo civilians fleeing northern Nigeria and civilians displaced or trapped inside Biafra" ], "agent_countries": [ "Nigeria" ], "victim_countries": [ "Nigeria" ], "container_countries": [ "Nigeria", "Cameroon", "Gabon", "Côte d’Ivoire" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Massacres in northern Nigeria drove Igbo residents toward the southeast; secession and federal war then produced repeated flight, siege conditions, and famine.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the prewar flight of Igbo civilians and the vast wartime displacement and siege inside Biafra.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Massacres in northern Nigeria drove Igbo residents toward the southeast; secession and federal war then produced repeated flight, siege conditions, and famine.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_biafra_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR research paper, Humanitarian issues in the Biafra conflict", "url": "https://www.refworld.org/reference/research/unhcr/2001/87359" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.6230939993, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.6230939993, "unknown_bound_high": 81.6230939993 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 54.7512214444, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.7512214444, "unknown_bound_high": 54.7512214444 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 34.7767377527, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.7767377527, "unknown_bound_high": 34.7767377527 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 80.1532991687, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.8914202349, "unknown_bound_high": 82.4466263585 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 23.6429965708, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.6429965708, "unknown_bound_high": 23.6429965708 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-boko-haram-lake-chad-displacement", "name": "Boko Haram conflict and Lake Chad Basin displacement", "start": 2009, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2009–present", "region": "West and Central Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Boko Haram factions, Nigerian and regional security forces, and associated militias" ], "victims": [ "Civilians in northeastern Nigeria and the Lake Chad borderlands" ], "agent_countries": [ "Nigeria", "Cameroon", "Chad", "Niger" ], "victim_countries": [ "Nigeria", "Cameroon", "Chad", "Niger" ], "container_countries": [ "Nigeria", "Cameroon", "Chad", "Niger" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Insurgent attacks, military operations, insecurity, and restrictions on rural life produced mass internal displacement and refugee movements around Lake Chad.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a cross-border conflict that destroyed settlements and displaced millions across four countries.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Insurgent attacks, military operations, insecurity, and restrictions on rural life produced mass internal displacement and refugee movements around Lake Chad.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_boko_haram_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Boko Haram displacement in the Lake Chad Basin", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/597704b87.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 37.1626836923, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.1626836923, "unknown_bound_high": 37.1626836923 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 14.9736784348, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.9736784348, "unknown_bound_high": 14.9736784348 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 22.1989581783, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.1989581783, "unknown_bound_high": 22.1989581783 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 66.0794729871, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.0794729871, "unknown_bound_high": 66.0794729871 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 23.4647281055, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.4647281055, "unknown_bound_high": 23.4647281055 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-tigray-war-displacement", "name": "Tigray war displacement and expulsions", "start": 2020, "end": 2022, "date_label": "2020–2022", "region": "Horn of Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Ethiopian federal and allied regional forces, Eritrean forces, and Tigrayan forces" ], "victims": [ "Tigrayan, Amhara, Eritrean refugee, and other civilians displaced by the war and localized expulsions" ], "agent_countries": [ "Ethiopia", "Eritrea" ], "victim_countries": [ "Ethiopia", "Eritrea" ], "container_countries": [ "Ethiopia", "Eritrea", "Sudan", "Djibouti" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Fighting across northern Ethiopia, atrocities against civilians, and contested territorial control displaced millions internally and sent refugees into Sudan.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits mass displacement, siege, and ethnically targeted removals during the Tigray war.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Fighting across northern Ethiopia, atrocities against civilians, and contested territorial control displaced millions internally and sent refugees into Sudan.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_tigray_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR Ethiopia situation: Tigray conflict displacement", "url": "https://reporting.unhcr.org/ethiopia-situation-global-report-2021" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.6739755071, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.6739755071, "unknown_bound_high": 85.6739755071 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.6247364876, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.6247364876, "unknown_bound_high": 52.6247364876 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.6521687586, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.4486178829, "unknown_bound_high": 59.6187201733 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 63.2677121846, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.2677121846, "unknown_bound_high": 63.2677121846 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 79.2701444432, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.2701444432, "unknown_bound_high": 79.2701444432 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 56.9082672492, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.9082672492, "unknown_bound_high": 56.9082672492 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-central-sahel-displacement", "name": "Central Sahel insurgencies and mass displacement", "start": 2012, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2012–present", "region": "West Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Jihadist armed groups, state security forces, foreign forces, and local militias" ], "victims": [ "Civilians displaced across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger" ], "agent_countries": [ "Mali", "Burkina Faso", "Niger" ], "victim_countries": [ "Mali", "Burkina Faso", "Niger" ], "container_countries": [ "Mali", "Burkina Faso", "Niger", "Mauritania", "Algeria", "Côte d’Ivoire", "Ghana", "Togo", "Benin" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Insurgent expansion, counterinsurgency, communal violence, and collapsing local security forced large rural populations from home across Mali, Burkina Faso, and western Niger.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the linked but locally distinct displacement crises spreading from northern Mali through the central Sahel.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Insurgent expansion, counterinsurgency, communal violence, and collapsing local security forced large rural populations from home across Mali, Burkina Faso, and western Niger.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_sahel_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Central Sahel forced-displacement crisis", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/news/briefing-notes/unhcr-urges-global-response-neglected-humanitarian-crisis-sahel" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 45.2253513793, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.2253513793, "unknown_bound_high": 45.2253513793 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.656686325, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.656686325, "unknown_bound_high": 12.656686325 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 3.7154263296, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.7154263296, "unknown_bound_high": 3.7154263296 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.3856758528, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.3856758528, "unknown_bound_high": 26.3856758528 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 57.1589459741, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.1589459741, "unknown_bound_high": 57.1589459741 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 44.5279292823, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.5279292823, "unknown_bound_high": 44.5279292823 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-zimbabwe-operation-murambatsvina", "name": "Zimbabwe's Operation Murambatsvina mass evictions", "start": 2005, "end": 2005, "date_label": "2005", "region": "Southern Africa", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "Zimbabwean national and municipal authorities and security forces" ], "victims": [ "Urban residents, informal workers, and households whose homes or livelihoods were destroyed" ], "agent_countries": [ "Zimbabwe" ], "victim_countries": [ "Zimbabwe" ], "container_countries": [ "Zimbabwe", "South Africa" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Authorities demolished informal housing and markets in a nationwide operation, forcing residents into rural areas, transit sites, homelessness, or emigration.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a state demolition campaign that forcibly displaced or stripped livelihoods from hundreds of thousands.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Authorities demolished informal housing and markets in a nationwide operation, forcing residents into rural areas, transit sites, homelessness, or emigration.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_zimbabwe_murambatsvina_hrw", "title": "Human Rights Watch, Evicted and Forsaken after Operation Murambatsvina", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/2005/12/01/zimbabwe-evicted-and-forsaken/internally-displaced-persons-aftermath-operation" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 78.8087629057, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.8087629057, "unknown_bound_high": 78.8087629057 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 36.4251374808, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.4251374808, "unknown_bound_high": 36.4251374808 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 66.8571073274, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.8571073274, "unknown_bound_high": 66.8571073274 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 39.0223103169, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.0223103169, "unknown_bound_high": 39.0223103169 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 24.0471860879, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.0471860879, "unknown_bound_high": 24.0471860879 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-zanzibar-revolution-expulsions", "name": "Zanzibar Revolution killings, confiscation, and expulsion", "start": 1964, "end": 1975, "date_label": "1964–c. 1975", "region": "East Africa", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Zanzibar revolutionary government and armed revolutionary groups" ], "victims": [ "Arab and South Asian Zanzibaris subjected to killing, detention, property confiscation, and exile" ], "agent_countries": [ "Tanzania" ], "victim_countries": [ "Tanzania" ], "container_countries": [ "Tanzania", "Oman", "United Arab Emirates", "United Kingdom" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "The 1964 revolution overthrew the sultanate and was followed by mass violence, detention, confiscation, and emigration that transformed the islands' population and property order.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits post-revolutionary killing, property transfer, and the durable exile of established minority communities.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The 1964 revolution overthrew the sultanate and was followed by mass violence, detention, confiscation, and emigration that transformed the islands' population and property order.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_zanzibar_expulsion", "title": "Property Confiscation in the Zanzibar Revolution", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article/124/496/235/8254345" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 73.4718981307, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.4718981307, "unknown_bound_high": 73.4718981307 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 68.8551846834, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.8551846834, "unknown_bound_high": 68.8551846834 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 67.0235275322, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.0235275322, "unknown_bound_high": 67.0235275322 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 70.3120502246, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.3120502246, "unknown_bound_high": 70.3120502246 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 82.7330856709, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.7330856709, "unknown_bound_high": 82.7330856709 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-libya-tawergha-expulsion", "name": "Expulsion and blocked return of Tawergha residents", "start": 2011, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2011–present", "region": "North Africa", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Misratan armed groups and local authorities" ], "victims": [ "Predominantly Black Libyan residents of Tawergha" ], "agent_countries": [ "Libya" ], "victim_countries": [ "Libya" ], "container_countries": [ "Libya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Armed groups expelled Tawergha's population during the 2011 war and prevented return for years, linking collective punishment to race, locality, and alleged wartime allegiance.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the emptying of Tawergha, destruction and seizure of property, and years of obstructed return.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Armed groups expelled Tawergha's population during the 2011 war and prevented return for years, linking collective punishment to race, locality, and alleged wartime allegiance.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_libya_tawergha_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR Libya: displacement of Tawergha residents", "url": "https://data.unhcr.org/fr/documents/download/60091" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 34.008167903, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.008167903, "unknown_bound_high": 34.008167903 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 9.6059018178, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.6059018178, "unknown_bound_high": 9.6059018178 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 6.4750996917, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.4750996917, "unknown_bound_high": 6.4750996917 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 72.0021445688, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.0021445688, "unknown_bound_high": 72.0021445688 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.8040517601, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.8040517601, "unknown_bound_high": 58.8040517601 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.8173581366, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.8173581366, "unknown_bound_high": 54.8173581366 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-cameroon-anglophone-displacement", "name": "Cameroon's Anglophone crisis displacement", "start": 2016, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2016–present", "region": "Central Africa", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Cameroonian security forces and Anglophone separatist armed groups" ], "victims": [ "Civilians in Cameroon's Northwest and Southwest regions" ], "agent_countries": [ "Cameroon" ], "victim_countries": [ "Cameroon" ], "container_countries": [ "Cameroon", "Nigeria" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Repression of protests, separatist insurgency, village destruction, and abuses by both sides drove residents into cities, forests, and neighboring Nigeria.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits large-scale internal and cross-border displacement from the Anglophone conflict.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Repression of protests, separatist insurgency, village destruction, and abuses by both sides drove residents into cities, forests, and neighboring Nigeria.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_cameroon_anglophone_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR supplementary appeal for Anglophone Cameroon displacement", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/2021-12/UNHCR%2520Cameroon%25202019%2520Supplementary%2520Appeal%2520%2528March%25202019%2529.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 41.5375515801, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.5375515801, "unknown_bound_high": 41.5375515801 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.2031967647, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.2031967647, "unknown_bound_high": 7.2031967647 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.6266863032, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.6266863032, "unknown_bound_high": 26.6266863032 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 44.7999133787, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.7999133787, "unknown_bound_high": 44.7999133787 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 60.8831939593, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.8831939593, "unknown_bound_high": 60.8831939593 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-equatorial-guinea-macias-exile", "name": "Macías Nguema dictatorship and mass exile from Equatorial Guinea", "start": 1968, "end": 1979, "date_label": "1968–1979", "region": "Central Africa", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Equatorial Guinean state under Francisco Macías Nguema" ], "victims": [ "Political opponents, educated residents, minority communities, and others driven into exile" ], "agent_countries": [ "Equatorial Guinea" ], "victim_countries": [ "Equatorial Guinea" ], "container_countries": [ "Equatorial Guinea", "Cameroon", "Gabon", "Spain" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Repression, killing, forced labor, and economic collapse after independence drove extensive flight to Cameroon, Gabon, Spain, and elsewhere.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits dictatorship-driven depopulation and exile affecting a large share of the country's residents.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Repression, killing, forced labor, and economic collapse after independence drove extensive flight to Cameroon, Gabon, Spain, and elsewhere.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_equatorial_guinea_exile", "title": "Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and the management of Equatoguinean refugees, 1960–1979", "url": "https://journals.codesria.org/index.php/az/article/view/1780" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 62.0248181795, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.0248181795, "unknown_bound_high": 62.0248181795 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 49.9689900895, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.9689900895, "unknown_bound_high": 49.9689900895 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 5.5731394944, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.5731394944, "unknown_bound_high": 5.5731394944 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.234450261, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.234450261, "unknown_bound_high": 31.234450261 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.1989721121, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.1989721121, "unknown_bound_high": 68.1989721121 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 44.5279292823, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.5279292823, "unknown_bound_high": 44.5279292823 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "modern-afghanistan-soviet-war-displacement", "name": "Soviet–Afghan war mass displacement", "start": 1979, "end": 1989, "date_label": "1979–1989", "region": "Central and South Asia", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Soviet forces, Democratic Republic of Afghanistan forces, and mujahideen organizations" ], "victims": [ "Afghan civilians displaced internally or into Pakistan and Iran" ], "agent_countries": [ "Afghanistan", "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Afghanistan" ], "container_countries": [ "Afghanistan", "Pakistan", "Iran", "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Bombardment, counterinsurgency, rural destruction, and fighting drove millions of Afghans into Pakistan and Iran and displaced many more internally.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the war that generated one of the twentieth century's largest refugee populations.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Bombardment, counterinsurgency, rural destruction, and fighting drove millions of Afghans into Pakistan and Iran and displaced many more internally.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_afghanistan_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Afghanistan ten years after the Soviet withdrawal", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/us/news/briefing-notes/afghanistan-10-years-after-soviet-pull-out" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 66.1210268879, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.1210268879, "unknown_bound_high": 66.1210268879 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.7932314867, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.7932314867, "unknown_bound_high": 10.7932314867 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 32.9332152297, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.9332152297, "unknown_bound_high": 32.9332152297 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 47.6134041972, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.6134041972, "unknown_bound_high": 47.6134041972 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 11.8745423785, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.8745423785, "unknown_bound_high": 11.8745423785 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-afghanistan-civil-war-taliban-displacement", "name": "Afghan civil wars and Taliban-era displacement", "start": 1989, "end": 2001, "date_label": "1989–2001", "region": "Central and South Asia", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Afghan government, mujahideen factions, Taliban forces, and other armed organizations" ], "victims": [ "Afghan civilians displaced by factional war, persecution, and drought" ], "agent_countries": [ "Afghanistan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Afghanistan" ], "container_countries": [ "Afghanistan", "Pakistan", "Iran", "Tajikistan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The collapse of the Soviet-backed government, factional war, Taliban expansion, minority persecution, and drought prevented durable return and generated further flight.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas stops the Afghan displacement history at the Soviet withdrawal even though civil war and Taliban conquest created new waves.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The collapse of the Soviet-backed government, factional war, Taliban expansion, minority persecution, and drought prevented durable return and generated further flight.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_afghanistan_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Afghanistan ten years after the Soviet withdrawal", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/us/news/briefing-notes/afghanistan-10-years-after-soviet-pull-out" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 48.3884157835, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.3884157835, "unknown_bound_high": 48.3884157835 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.2031967647, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.2031967647, "unknown_bound_high": 7.2031967647 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 1.8577131648, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.8577131648, "unknown_bound_high": 1.8577131648 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.6266863032, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.6266863032, "unknown_bound_high": 26.6266863032 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.3338206956, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.3338206956, "unknown_bound_high": 49.3338206956 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 23.4647281055, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.4647281055, "unknown_bound_high": 23.4647281055 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-afghanistan-post-2001-conflict-displacement", "name": "Afghanistan post-2001 war displacement", "start": 2001, "end": 2021, "date_label": "2001–2021", "region": "Central and South Asia", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Afghan government and allied international forces, Taliban forces, Islamic State affiliates, and other armed groups" ], "victims": [ "Afghan civilians repeatedly displaced inside the country and across borders" ], "agent_countries": [ "Afghanistan", "United States", "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Afghanistan" ], "container_countries": [ "Afghanistan", "Pakistan", "Iran", "Turkey" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Insurgency, counterinsurgency, air and ground operations, targeted persecution, and insecurity produced repeated internal displacement and continued refugee flight.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits two more decades of repeated conflict displacement after the 2001 intervention.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Insurgency, counterinsurgency, air and ground operations, targeted persecution, and insecurity produced repeated internal displacement and continued refugee flight.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_afghanistan_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Afghanistan ten years after the Soviet withdrawal", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/us/news/briefing-notes/afghanistan-10-years-after-soviet-pull-out" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 50.1026224143, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.1026224143, "unknown_bound_high": 50.1026224143 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 5.7158349376, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.7158349376, "unknown_bound_high": 5.7158349376 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 14.5665228699, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.5665228699, "unknown_bound_high": 14.5665228699 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 38.3767118463, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.3767118463, "unknown_bound_high": 38.3767118463 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 45.410182528, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.410182528, "unknown_bound_high": 45.410182528 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-syria-war-displacement", "name": "Syrian war mass displacement", "start": 2011, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2011–present", "region": "Middle East", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Syrian government and allied forces, opposition armed groups, Islamic State, Kurdish-led forces, and foreign intervening states in different phases" ], "victims": [ "Syrian civilians displaced internally or across international borders" ], "agent_countries": [ "Syria", "Russia", "Iran", "Turkey", "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "Syria" ], "container_countries": [ "Syria", "Turkey", "Lebanon", "Jordan", "Iraq", "Egypt", "Germany", "Sweden" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Repression, siege, bombardment, territorial conquest, conscription fears, and economic collapse forced millions from home and obstructed safe return.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the largest contemporary cross-border and internal displacement crisis originating in Syria.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Repression, siege, bombardment, territorial conquest, conscription fears, and economic collapse forced millions from home and obstructed safe return.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_syria_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, chronology of Syria's displacement crisis", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/5245a72e6.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 76.9306896827, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.9306896827, "unknown_bound_high": 76.9306896827 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 53.6267765754, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.6267765754, "unknown_bound_high": 53.6267765754 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 32.9332152297, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.9332152297, "unknown_bound_high": 32.9332152297 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.960961479, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.960961479, "unknown_bound_high": 68.960961479 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 46.2907418414, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.2907418414, "unknown_bound_high": 46.2907418414 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-iraq-sectarian-displacement", "name": "Iraq sectarian cleansing and displacement", "start": 2006, "end": 2008, "date_label": "2006–2008", "region": "Middle East", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Sunni and Shi'a militias, insurgent organizations, and state-linked armed actors" ], "victims": [ "Iraqi civilians expelled from mixed neighborhoods or displaced across and beyond Iraq" ], "agent_countries": [ "Iraq" ], "victim_countries": [ "Iraq" ], "container_countries": [ "Iraq", "Syria", "Jordan", "Iran", "Turkey" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After the Samarra shrine bombing, killings, threats, and militia control expelled Sunni and Shi'a residents from mixed districts and drove large internal and external flight.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits neighborhood-by-neighborhood sectarian expulsion that remade Baghdad and other mixed areas.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After the Samarra shrine bombing, killings, threats, and militia control expelled Sunni and Shi'a residents from mixed districts and drove large internal and external flight.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_iraq_sectarian_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Iraq displacement from 2006–2008 sectarian violence", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/us/news/briefing-notes/unhcr-concerned-recent-waves-sectarian-violence-threatens-new-internal" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 40.9880878788, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.9880878788, "unknown_bound_high": 40.9880878788 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 24.9900835126, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.9900835126, "unknown_bound_high": 24.9900835126 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 65.5365398166, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.5365398166, "unknown_bound_high": 65.5365398166 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 78.0043675317, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.0043675317, "unknown_bound_high": 78.0043675317 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.0176553577, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.0176553577, "unknown_bound_high": 49.0176553577 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 48.3459276836, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.3459276836, "unknown_bound_high": 48.3459276836 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-yemen-war-displacement", "name": "Yemen war mass displacement", "start": 2015, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2015–present", "region": "Arabian Peninsula", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Houthi forces, internationally recognized government forces, Saudi-led coalition forces, southern armed groups, and other factions" ], "victims": [ "Yemeni civilians displaced by fighting, bombardment, insecurity, and economic collapse" ], "agent_countries": [ "Yemen", "Saudi Arabia", "United Arab Emirates" ], "victim_countries": [ "Yemen" ], "container_countries": [ "Yemen", "Saudi Arabia", "Oman", "Djibouti", "Somalia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Front-line changes, air strikes, shelling, persecution, and collapsing services repeatedly displaced households, often into areas already unable to support them.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits Yemen's prolonged internal displacement emergency.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Front-line changes, air strikes, shelling, persecution, and collapsing services repeatedly displaced households, often into areas already unable to support them.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_yemen_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, five years of conflict displacement in Yemen", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/news/stories/yemen-sees-fresh-displacement-after-five-years-conflict" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 41.5375515801, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.5375515801, "unknown_bound_high": 41.5375515801 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 3.6015983823, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.6015983823, "unknown_bound_high": 3.6015983823 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.6266863032, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.6266863032, "unknown_bound_high": 26.6266863032 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.822758358, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.822758358, "unknown_bound_high": 50.822758358 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 30.6361411293, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.6361411293, "unknown_bound_high": 30.6361411293 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-sri-lanka-civil-war-displacement", "name": "Sri Lankan civil war mass displacement", "start": 1983, "end": 2009, "date_label": "1983–2009", "region": "South Asia", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Sri Lankan armed forces, Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, and other armed groups" ], "victims": [ "Tamil, Muslim, and Sinhalese civilians uprooted by war and communal violence" ], "agent_countries": [ "Sri Lanka" ], "victim_countries": [ "Sri Lanka" ], "container_countries": [ "Sri Lanka", "India", "Canada", "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Communal pogroms and civil war displaced civilians repeatedly from the north and east, generated overseas refugee communities, and culminated in mass confinement at the end of the war.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits repeated internal displacement, refugee flight, forced recruitment, and end-of-war encampment.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Communal pogroms and civil war displaced civilians repeatedly from the north and east, generated overseas refugee communities, and culminated in mass confinement at the end of the war.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_sri_lanka_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, displacement during Sri Lanka's civil war", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/node/11214" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.6108678104, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.6108678104, "unknown_bound_high": 81.6108678104 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 44.4658046861, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.4658046861, "unknown_bound_high": 44.4658046861 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 22.6066318254, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.6066318254, "unknown_bound_high": 22.6066318254 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 65.5187979407, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.5187979407, "unknown_bound_high": 65.5187979407 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 36.7899898459, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.7899898459, "unknown_bound_high": 36.7899898459 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-sri-lanka-northern-muslim-expulsion", "name": "LTTE expulsion of Muslims from northern Sri Lanka", "start": 1990, "end": 1990, "date_label": "1990", "region": "South Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam" ], "victims": [ "Muslim residents expelled from Jaffna and other northern districts" ], "agent_countries": [ "Sri Lanka" ], "victim_countries": [ "Sri Lanka" ], "container_countries": [ "Sri Lanka" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "LTTE cadres ordered Muslim residents to leave northern districts with little notice, confiscated property, and created a protracted internally displaced population.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "A general civil-war entry would conceal the rapid, targeted emptying of long-established Muslim communities from the north.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "LTTE cadres ordered Muslim residents to leave northern districts with little notice, confiscated property, and created a protracted internally displaced population.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_sri_lanka_muslims_hrw", "title": "Human Rights Watch, Playing the Communal Card in Sri Lanka", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/reports/1995/communal/" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 67.6269308075, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.6269308075, "unknown_bound_high": 67.6269308075 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 18.0853945036, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.0853945036, "unknown_bound_high": 18.0853945036 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 88.7268336174, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.7268336174, "unknown_bound_high": 88.7268336174 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 32.2696756518, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.2696756518, "unknown_bound_high": 32.2696756518 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.436980129, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.9038663149, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.396019994, "unknown_bound_high": 57.0093885034 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-malayan-emergency-new-villages", "name": "Malayan Emergency forced resettlement into New Villages", "start": 1948, "end": 1960, "date_label": "1948–1960", "region": "Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "British colonial authorities and the Federation of Malaya government" ], "victims": [ "Predominantly rural Chinese squatters and other residents forcibly moved into controlled settlements" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Malaysia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Malaysia" ], "container_countries": [ "Malaysia", "Singapore" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The Briggs Plan cut insurgents off from rural support by relocating residents, regulating movement and food, and transforming settlement geography; it was coercive state resettlement, not replacement colonization.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the counterinsurgency relocation of hundreds of thousands into fenced and supervised New Villages.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The Briggs Plan cut insurgents off from rural support by relocating residents, regulating movement and food, and transforming settlement geography; it was coercive state resettlement, not replacement colonization.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_malayan_new_villages", "title": "The Emergency Regulations of Malaya: resettlement into New Villages", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-southeast-asian-history/article/abs/emergency-regulations-of-malaya-causes-and-effect/548A839A395186BB3B3F412255EFBADF" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.4456687025, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 94.4456687025, "unknown_bound_high": 94.4456687025 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 68.2235604572, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.2235604572, "unknown_bound_high": 68.2235604572 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 86.2735708594, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.2735708594, "unknown_bound_high": 86.2735708594 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 48.8045436497, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.8045436497, "unknown_bound_high": 48.8045436497 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 48.8630546979, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.8630546979, "unknown_bound_high": 48.8630546979 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 66.8157076181, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.8157076181, "unknown_bound_high": 66.8157076181 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-korean-war-civilian-displacement", "name": "Korean War civilian flight and permanent division", "start": 1950, "end": 1953, "date_label": "1950–1953", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "North Korean, South Korean, Chinese, United States, and United Nations Command forces" ], "victims": [ "Korean civilians repeatedly displaced by invasion, retreat, evacuation, bombing, and political screening" ], "agent_countries": [ "North Korea", "South Korea", "China", "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "North Korea", "South Korea" ], "container_countries": [ "North Korea", "South Korea", "China", "Japan", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Rapid front-line reversals displaced civilians multiple times; evacuations, massacres, fear of political reprisal, and the final armistice line prevented many from returning home.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits mass civilian flight and the border closure that permanently separated displaced families.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Rapid front-line reversals displaced civilians multiple times; evacuations, massacres, fear of political reprisal, and the final armistice line prevented many from returning home.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_korean_war_displacement", "title": "Living in Flight: Civilian Displacement during the Korean War", "url": "https://journal.kci.go.kr/hksh/archive/articleView?artiId=ART001510291" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 45.01554652, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.01554652, "unknown_bound_high": 45.01554652 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 9.5201888744, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.5201888744, "unknown_bound_high": 9.5201888744 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 34.7767377527, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.7767377527, "unknown_bound_high": 34.7767377527 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.8846631496, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.8846631496, "unknown_bound_high": 63.8846631496 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 67.4737758839, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.4737758839, "unknown_bound_high": 67.4737758839 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-chinese-exodus-to-taiwan", "name": "Chinese Civil War exodus to Taiwan and incoming regime settlement", "start": 1945, "end": 1955, "date_label": "1945–1955", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Republic of China government, armed forces, officials, and mainland refugee population" ], "victims": [ "Mainland Chinese refugees and Taiwan residents subjected to incoming military government, property requisition, and political repression" ], "agent_countries": [ "China", "Taiwan" ], "victim_countries": [ "China", "Taiwan" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Taiwan", "Hong Kong", "Macau" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Civil-war defeat brought the Nationalist government, armed forces, and a large mainland population to Taiwan, where an incoming authoritarian regime ruled the existing population; the case combines refugee movement with state-bearing settlement and requires careful framing.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits both the refugee exodus from mainland China and the politically dominant settlement of the Nationalist state and its followers on Taiwan.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Civil-war defeat brought the Nationalist government, armed forces, and a large mainland population to Taiwan, where an incoming authoritarian regime ruled the existing population; the case combines refugee movement with state-bearing settlement and requires careful framing.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_taiwan_exodus", "title": "The Great Exodus from China: mainland refugees and Taiwan", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/6B9901026D51F5DB5FEAEFFEF52440E1/9781108478120c1_40-85.pdf/the-exodus.pdf" }, { "id": "qc_taiwan_exiles", "title": "Journal of Chinese History, Chinese Civil War exiles in 1950s Taiwan", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-chinese-history/article/abs/together-in-the-same-boat-exiled-nationalist-state-and-chinese-civil-war-exiles-in-1950s-taiwan/858F582B8788BA7CE556ADDF2D65DFF3" } ], "rendered_case_id": "modern-chinese-exodus-to-taiwan", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.6076042014, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.6076042014, "unknown_bound_high": 81.6076042014 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 78.8972241557, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.8972241557, "unknown_bound_high": 78.8972241557 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 55.3509599638, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.3509599638, "unknown_bound_high": 55.3509599638 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 27.0157593364, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.0157593364, "unknown_bound_high": 27.0157593364 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 46.1779196141, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.1779196141, "unknown_bound_high": 46.1779196141 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 65.0058382084, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.0058382084, "unknown_bound_high": 65.0058382084 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-okinawa-base-land-seizure", "name": "Okinawan land seizure and displacement for United States military bases", "start": 1945, "end": 1972, "date_label": "1945–1972", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "United States military occupation authorities and base administrators" ], "victims": [ "Okinawan landowners, farmers, and communities removed from base sites" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States", "Japan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Japan" ], "container_countries": [ "Japan", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Wartime evacuation and United States occupation were followed by compulsory land acquisition for bases, displacing residents and constraining return even after sovereignty reverted to Japan.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits postwar seizure of private and communal land and the concentration of military infrastructure on Okinawa.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Wartime evacuation and United States occupation were followed by compulsory land acquisition for bases, displacing residents and constraining return even after sovereignty reverted to Japan.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_okinawa_land", "title": "Okinawa Prefecture, history of forced seizure of private land for U.S. bases", "url": "https://www.pref.okinawa.lg.jp/_res/projects/default_project/_page_/001/040/263/18_20260331_matome.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.6677102629, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6677102629, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6677102629 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 50.8965326143, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.8965326143, "unknown_bound_high": 50.8965326143 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 35.9060810093, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.9060810093, "unknown_bound_high": 35.9060810093 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 32.9829845683, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.9829845683, "unknown_bound_high": 32.9829845683 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 38.0516660057, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.0516660057, "unknown_bound_high": 38.0516660057 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.388172676, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.388172676, "unknown_bound_high": 52.388172676 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-three-gorges-resettlement", "name": "Three Gorges Dam compulsory resettlement", "start": 1994, "end": 2012, "date_label": "1994–2012", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "Chinese central and provincial authorities and dam-construction institutions" ], "victims": [ "Yangtze valley residents relocated from reservoir and construction zones" ], "agent_countries": [ "China" ], "victim_countries": [ "China" ], "container_countries": [ "China" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Reservoir inundation required the relocation of cities, towns, villages, farmland, and industrial sites; compensation and livelihood restoration outcomes varied substantially.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits compulsory development resettlement on a scale exceeding one million people.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Reservoir inundation required the relocation of cities, towns, villages, farmland, and industrial sites; compensation and livelihood restoration outcomes varied substantially.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_three_gorges", "title": "World Bank technical assessment of Three Gorges resettlement", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/446311468761673943/pdf/multi-page.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.2483537933, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.2483537933, "unknown_bound_high": 84.2483537933 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.5171752203, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.5171752203, "unknown_bound_high": 69.5171752203 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 57.2066252887, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.2066252887, "unknown_bound_high": 57.2066252887 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75.2515524748, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.2515524748, "unknown_bound_high": 75.2515524748 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-kazakh-famine-sedentarization", "name": "Soviet collectivization, sedentarization, and the Kazakh famine", "start": 1929, "end": 1934, "date_label": "1929–1934", "region": "Central Asia", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Soviet state, Communist Party, and Kazakh regional authorities" ], "victims": [ "Kazakh pastoralists subjected to confiscation, compulsory settlement, famine, and flight" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia", "Kazakhstan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Kazakhstan" ], "container_countries": [ "Kazakhstan", "Russia", "China", "Kyrgyzstan", "Uzbekistan", "Turkmenistan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Collectivization and livestock confiscation destroyed the pastoral economy, causing catastrophic famine, internal displacement, and flight beyond Soviet borders; genocide terminology remains debated.", "disputes": "Scholars agree on state causation and demographic catastrophe but differ over genocidal intent and the best legal classification.", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits compulsory sedentarization, mass mortality, and cross-border flight that transformed Kazakhstan's population.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Collectivization and livestock confiscation destroyed the pastoral economy, causing catastrophic famine, internal displacement, and flight beyond Soviet borders; genocide terminology remains debated.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_kazakh_famine", "title": "Ukraine and Kazakhstan: Comparing the Famines", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/contemporary-european-history/article/ukraine-and-kazakhstan-comparing-the-famines/D1D006A6A53BFD27F68E43CB8D91C6AA" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.731894627, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.731894627, "unknown_bound_high": 88.731894627 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.80107414, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.80107414, "unknown_bound_high": 69.80107414 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 67.6952202689, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.6952202689, "unknown_bound_high": 67.6952202689 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 34.1770390727, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.1770390727, "unknown_bound_high": 34.1770390727 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 77.7650975956, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7650975956, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7650975956 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 27.1981608448, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1981608448, "unknown_bound_high": 27.1981608448 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-tajikistan-civil-war-displacement", "name": "Tajikistan civil war displacement", "start": 1992, "end": 1997, "date_label": "1992–1997", "region": "Central Asia", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Tajik government, United Tajik Opposition, regional militias, and allied forces" ], "victims": [ "Tajik civilians displaced internally or into Afghanistan and neighboring states" ], "agent_countries": [ "Tajikistan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Tajikistan" ], "container_countries": [ "Tajikistan", "Afghanistan", "Uzbekistan", "Kyrgyzstan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Civil war after independence produced political and regional persecution, large internal displacement, refugee flight to Afghanistan, and a substantial post-agreement return program.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits civil-war expulsions, regional cleansing, refugee flight, and later organized repatriation.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Civil war after independence produced political and regional persecution, large internal displacement, refugee flight to Afghanistan, and a substantial post-agreement return program.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_tajik_civil_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Tajikistan civil-war displacement and repatriation", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/publications/update-voluntary-repatriation-movements" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 38.337382063, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.337382063, "unknown_bound_high": 38.337382063 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.9064804039, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.9064804039, "unknown_bound_high": 7.9064804039 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 41.0832666792, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7858667741, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 32.2859742555, "unknown_bound_high": 53.6992968434 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.9106191632, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.9106191632, "unknown_bound_high": 42.9106191632 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.0264054219, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0264054219, "unknown_bound_high": 6.0264054219 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-nepal-civil-conflict-displacement", "name": "Nepal civil conflict displacement", "start": 1996, "end": 2006, "date_label": "1996–2006", "region": "South Asia", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Nepalese security forces and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) forces" ], "victims": [ "Rural civilians displaced by violence, coercion, recruitment, and fear" ], "agent_countries": [ "Nepal" ], "victim_countries": [ "Nepal" ], "container_countries": [ "Nepal", "India" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Violence and coercion by both sides drove residents toward district centers, Kathmandu, and India; many returned cautiously after the 2006 peace agreement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits rural-to-urban and cross-border displacement during Nepal's decade-long conflict.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Violence and coercion by both sides drove residents toward district centers, Kathmandu, and India; many returned cautiously after the 2006 peace agreement.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_nepal_civil_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, return of people displaced by Nepal's civil conflict", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/uk/news/stories/cautious-return-nepals-displaced-people" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 39.0241616693, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.0241616693, "unknown_bound_high": 39.0241616693 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 4.8805321822, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.8805321822, "unknown_bound_high": 4.8805321822 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.6266863032, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.6266863032, "unknown_bound_high": 26.6266863032 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 31.4791169749, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.4791169749, "unknown_bound_high": 31.4791169749 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 12.3371674952, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.3371674952, "unknown_bound_high": 12.3371674952 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-philippine-american-reconcentration", "name": "Philippine–American War reconcentration", "start": 1899, "end": 1902, "date_label": "1899–1902", "region": "Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "United States military government and occupation forces" ], "victims": [ "Filipino rural civilians compelled into guarded zones or camps" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "Philippines" ], "container_countries": [ "Philippines", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "United States counterinsurgency separated civilians from guerrillas through controlled zones, camp systems, crop destruction, and movement restrictions, producing hunger, disease, and displacement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits Philippine occupation and does not identify reconcentration as a mass civilian-removal mechanism.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "United States counterinsurgency separated civilians from guerrillas through controlled zones, camp systems, crop destruction, and movement restrictions, producing hunger, disease, and displacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_philippines_reconcentration", "title": "Reconcentration and the camp system: the legacy of the Philippine-American War", "url": "https://research.monash.edu/en/publications/reconcentration-and-the-camp-system-the-legacy-of-the-philippine-/" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.6808055102, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6808055102, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6808055102 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 26.0948418397, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.0948418397, "unknown_bound_high": 26.0948418397 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 47.5514879893, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.5514879893, "unknown_bound_high": 47.5514879893 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 73.2795835016, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.2795835016, "unknown_bound_high": 73.2795835016 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-acadian-deportation-planter-replacement", "name": "Acadian deportation and New England Planter replacement", "start": 1755, "end": 1764, "date_label": "1755–1764", "region": "Northeastern North America", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "British imperial and Nova Scotian authorities", "New England Planter settlers" ], "victims": [ "Acadian communities deported from Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Canada", "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "Canada" ], "container_countries": [ "Canada", "United Kingdom", "United States", "France" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "new-france-settlement | british-north-america", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "British authorities deported Acadian communities, broke up families, confiscated land and livestock, and then promoted settlement by New England Planters on vacated farms.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas shows French and British settlement but omits the forcible removal of Acadians and redistribution of their farms to incoming settlers.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "British authorities deported Acadian communities, broke up families, confiscated land and livestock, and then promoted settlement by New England Planters on vacated farms.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_acadian_deportation", "title": "Parks Canada, history of Grand-Pré and the Deportation of the Acadians", "url": "https://parks.canada.ca/lhn-nhs/ns/grandpre/culture/histoire-history" }, { "id": "qc_acadian_planters", "title": "Nova Scotia Museum, the Acadian deportation and New England Planter settlement", "url": "https://ojs.library.dal.ca/NSM/article/view/3594/3307" } ], "rendered_case_id": "modern-acadian-deportation-planter-replacement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.8859810455, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.8859810455, "unknown_bound_high": 79.8859810455 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 73.6394002845, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.6394002845, "unknown_bound_high": 73.6394002845 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 89.6704067405, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.6704067405, "unknown_bound_high": 89.6704067405 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 94.5894223512, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 94.5894223512, "unknown_bound_high": 94.5894223512 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 77.7102833604, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7102833604, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7102833604 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 68.5589562842, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.5589562842, "unknown_bound_high": 68.5589562842 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-huguenot-exile", "name": "Huguenot expulsion and exile after the Revocation", "start": 1685, "end": 1715, "date_label": "1685–1715", "region": "Western Europe and Atlantic diaspora", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "French Crown, clergy, and royal security institutions" ], "victims": [ "French Protestants subjected to forced conversion, punishment, and clandestine exile" ], "agent_countries": [ "France" ], "victim_countries": [ "France" ], "container_countries": [ "France", "United Kingdom", "Netherlands", "Germany", "Switzerland", "South Africa", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Revocation of toleration criminalized Protestant worship and emigration; despite prohibitions, large numbers fled and formed diaspora communities across Europe and the Atlantic world.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a major confessional expulsion and diaspora from France.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Revocation of toleration criminalized Protestant worship and emigration; despite prohibitions, large numbers fled and formed diaspora communities across Europe and the Atlantic world.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_huguenot_exile", "title": "The Huguenots: History and Memory in Transnational Context", "url": "https://assets.cambridge.org/97811070/76259/excerpt/9781107076259_excerpt.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.2733756528, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.2733756528, "unknown_bound_high": 88.2733756528 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.7410209576, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.7410209576, "unknown_bound_high": 69.7410209576 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 19.5301631358, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.5301631358, "unknown_bound_high": 19.5301631358 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 55.7440450976, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.7440450976, "unknown_bound_high": 55.7440450976 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.1578639756, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.1578639756, "unknown_bound_high": 77.1578639756 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-south-tyrol-option", "name": "South Tyrol Option Agreement population transfer", "start": 1939, "end": 1943, "date_label": "1939–1943", "region": "Central Europe", "mechanism": "population exchange/partition", "agents": [ "Fascist Italian and Nazi German governments" ], "victims": [ "German- and Ladin-speaking South Tyroleans pressured to choose emigration and Germanization or remaining under Italianization" ], "agent_countries": [ "Italy", "Germany" ], "victim_countries": [ "Italy", "Austria" ], "container_countries": [ "Italy", "Austria", "Germany" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Residents were pressed to opt for German citizenship and relocation or remain under Fascist assimilation; wartime conditions limited full implementation, and some emigrants later returned.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a bilateral plan to remove a borderland minority through coerced choice and organized resettlement.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Residents were pressed to opt for German citizenship and relocation or remain under Fascist assimilation; wartime conditions limited full implementation, and some emigrants later returned.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_south_tyrol_option", "title": "The 1939 South Tyrol Option Agreement", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/historical-journal/article/1939-option-agreement-and-the-consistent-ambivalence-of-fascist-policies-towards-minorities-in-the-italian-new-provinces/0E24575ADE3EAAC6B001EC2D40F1B2B8" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.4403728642, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.4403728642, "unknown_bound_high": 93.4403728642 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 75.7182096868, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.7182096868, "unknown_bound_high": 75.7182096868 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 60.6725787335, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.6725787335, "unknown_bound_high": 60.6725787335 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 53.1549273853, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.1549273853, "unknown_bound_high": 53.1549273853 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 19.0737220043, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.0737220043, "unknown_bound_high": 19.0737220043 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 34.53244517, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.53244517, "unknown_bound_high": 34.53244517 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-bulgarian-turk-forced-migration", "name": "Bulgarian assimilation campaign and expulsion of Turks", "start": 1984, "end": 1989, "date_label": "1984–1989", "region": "Southeastern Europe", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Bulgarian Communist government and security forces" ], "victims": [ "Turkish and Muslim residents subjected to forced renaming, repression, and mass departure" ], "agent_countries": [ "Bulgaria" ], "victim_countries": [ "Bulgaria" ], "container_countries": [ "Bulgaria", "Turkey" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The state imposed Slavic names and restricted religious and cultural practice before opening the border in a coercive campaign that drove hundreds of thousands to Turkey; many later returned.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits forced assimilation followed by the 1989 mass expulsion into Turkey.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The state imposed Slavic names and restricted religious and cultural practice before opening the border in a coercive campaign that drove hundreds of thousands to Turkey; many later returned.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_bulgarian_turks", "title": "The Turks of Bulgaria: forced migration and voluntary return", "url": "https://kar.kent.ac.uk/64108/" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.6808055102, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6808055102, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6808055102 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 49.3435901314, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.3435901314, "unknown_bound_high": 49.3435901314 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 40.1994943205, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.1994943205, "unknown_bound_high": 40.1994943205 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 44.4575031156, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.4575031156, "unknown_bound_high": 44.4575031156 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 36.3339523539, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.3339523539, "unknown_bound_high": 36.3339523539 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-moldova-soviet-deportations", "name": "Soviet deportations from Moldova", "start": 1941, "end": 1951, "date_label": "1941–1951", "region": "Eastern Europe and Soviet interior", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Soviet security services and Moldavian Soviet authorities" ], "victims": [ "Families labeled political, class, religious, or nationalist enemies and deported from Soviet Moldova" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia", "Moldova" ], "victim_countries": [ "Moldova" ], "container_countries": [ "Moldova", "Russia", "Kazakhstan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Wartime and postwar security operations removed tens of thousands to Siberia and Kazakhstan, confiscating property and separating residents from their communities.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits successive Soviet deportation operations from the Moldavian SSR.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Wartime and postwar security operations removed tens of thousands to Siberia and Kazakhstan, confiscating property and separating residents from their communities.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_moldova_deportations", "title": "National Museum of History of Moldova, victims of Soviet deportations", "url": "https://www.nationalmuseum.md/en/exhibitions/soviet_moldova_between_myths_and_the_gulag/" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.3779261968, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.3779261968, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3779261968 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 64.2406033748, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.2406033748, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2406033748 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 23.4958057165, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.4958057165, "unknown_bound_high": 23.4958057165 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.3577614745, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.3577614745, "unknown_bound_high": 58.3577614745 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 25.8451061131, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.8451061131, "unknown_bound_high": 25.8451061131 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-finnish-karelia-evacuation", "name": "Evacuation and permanent resettlement of Finnish Karelia", "start": 1939, "end": 1944, "date_label": "1939–1944", "region": "Northern Europe", "mechanism": "population exchange/partition", "agents": [ "Soviet territorial annexation and Finnish evacuation and resettlement authorities" ], "victims": [ "Karelian residents evacuated from territories ceded by Finland to the Soviet Union" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia", "Finland" ], "victim_countries": [ "Finland", "Russia" ], "container_countries": [ "Finland", "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "War and Soviet annexation led Finland to evacuate and resettle almost the entire population of ceded Karelia and other areas; return after 1944 was not permitted.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the near-total evacuation of ceded Finnish territories and permanent redistribution of evacuees within Finland.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "War and Soviet annexation led Finland to evacuate and resettle almost the entire population of ceded Karelia and other areas; return after 1944 was not permitted.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_karelian_evacuation", "title": "Finnish Heritage Agency, evacuation of Finnish Karelia", "url": "https://www.museovirasto.fi/en/collection-and-information-services/the_picture_collections/whats-on/articles-in-kamera-magazine-2015/leaving-for-a-new-beginning" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 95.0366809937, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 95.0366809937, "unknown_bound_high": 95.0366809937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 62.2425846466, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.2425846466, "unknown_bound_high": 62.2425846466 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.8197115707, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.8197115707, "unknown_bound_high": 75.8197115707 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 32.2696756518, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.2696756518, "unknown_bound_high": 32.2696756518 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 74.5941808388, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.5941808388, "unknown_bound_high": 74.5941808388 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-thule-inughuit-relocation", "name": "Forced relocation of Inughuit families from Uummannaq at Thule", "start": 1953, "end": 1953, "date_label": "1953", "region": "Greenland", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "Danish colonial authorities acting in connection with United States Thule Air Base expansion" ], "victims": [ "Inughuit families removed from Uummannaq and restricted from their hunting territory" ], "agent_countries": [ "Denmark", "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "Greenland" ], "container_countries": [ "Greenland", "Denmark", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Danish authorities relocated Inughuit families with little notice from a settlement beside Thule Air Base to Qaanaaq, severing access to established homes and hunting grounds.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the removal of an Indigenous community for military-base expansion and the continuing land-access consequences.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Danish authorities relocated Inughuit families with little notice from a settlement beside Thule Air Base to Qaanaaq, severing access to established homes and hunting grounds.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_thule_relocation", "title": "UN Special Rapporteur report on the Inughuit relocation at Thule", "url": "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4028857/files/A_HRC_54_31_Add.1-EN.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.3521606912, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 94.3521606912, "unknown_bound_high": 94.3521606912 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 37.3378745631, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.3378745631, "unknown_bound_high": 37.3378745631 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 53.0542798284, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.0542798284, "unknown_bound_high": 53.0542798284 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.4265853707, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4265853707, "unknown_bound_high": 42.4265853707 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 55.9583595596, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.9583595596, "unknown_bound_high": 55.9583595596 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-colombia-internal-conflict-displacement", "name": "Colombia armed conflict and forced land abandonment", "start": 1964, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1964–present", "region": "South America", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Guerrilla organizations, paramilitary groups, state forces, criminal organizations, and land-grabbing networks in different regions and phases" ], "victims": [ "Rural, Indigenous, Afro-Colombian, peasant, and urban civilians forcibly displaced" ], "agent_countries": [ "Colombia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Colombia" ], "container_countries": [ "Colombia", "Venezuela", "Ecuador", "Panama" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Decades of armed conflict forced millions from land and neighborhoods; displacement often enabled appropriation, illicit economies, infrastructure, or strategic territorial control even when no incoming settler project existed.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits one of the world's largest internally displaced populations and the connection between coercion, land abandonment, and territorial control.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Decades of armed conflict forced millions from land and neighborhoods; displacement often enabled appropriation, illicit economies, infrastructure, or strategic territorial control even when no incoming settler project existed.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_colombia_displacement", "title": "UNHCR Colombia: internal armed conflict and forced displacement", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/where-we-work/countries/colombia" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 52.0687242575, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.0687242575, "unknown_bound_high": 52.0687242575 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 44.6554802441, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.6554802441, "unknown_bound_high": 44.6554802441 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 3.7154263296, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.7154263296, "unknown_bound_high": 3.7154263296 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.3314368845, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.3314368845, "unknown_bound_high": 49.3314368845 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.5520553592, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.5520553592, "unknown_bound_high": 52.5520553592 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 60.7450796139, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.7450796139, "unknown_bound_high": 60.7450796139 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-guatemala-civil-war-displacement", "name": "Guatemalan civil war and Indigenous mass displacement", "start": 1960, "end": 1996, "date_label": "1960–1996", "region": "Central America", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Guatemalan armed forces, civil patrols, guerrilla organizations, and other armed actors" ], "victims": [ "Maya communities and other civilians displaced internally or into Mexico" ], "agent_countries": [ "Guatemala" ], "victim_countries": [ "Guatemala" ], "container_countries": [ "Guatemala", "Mexico", "Belize", "Honduras" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Counterinsurgency campaigns destroyed Maya communities, killed civilians, drove refugees into Mexico and the mountains, and forced survivors into militarized resettlement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits scorched-earth campaigns, village destruction, model-village resettlement, and mass refugee flight.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Counterinsurgency campaigns destroyed Maya communities, killed civilians, drove refugees into Mexico and the mountains, and forced survivors into militarized resettlement.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_central_america_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR regional overview: Central American civil-war displacement", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/in/publications/unhcr-global-appeal-1999-regional-overview-central-america" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.4086846225, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.4086846225, "unknown_bound_high": 80.4086846225 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 54.1298597127, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.1298597127, "unknown_bound_high": 54.1298597127 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 33.0084091143, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.0084091143, "unknown_bound_high": 33.0084091143 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 69.1132347243, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.1132347243, "unknown_bound_high": 69.1132347243 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 25.8451061131, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.8451061131, "unknown_bound_high": 25.8451061131 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-el-salvador-civil-war-displacement", "name": "El Salvador civil war displacement", "start": 1979, "end": 1992, "date_label": "1979–1992", "region": "Central America", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Salvadoran armed forces and death squads, FMLN forces, and other armed actors" ], "victims": [ "Salvadoran civilians displaced internally, within Central America, and to North America" ], "agent_countries": [ "El Salvador" ], "victim_countries": [ "El Salvador" ], "container_countries": [ "El Salvador", "Honduras", "Guatemala", "Mexico", "United States", "Canada" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Massacres, bombardment, political persecution, conscription, and rural warfare drove Salvadorans into cities, neighboring countries, Mexico, the United States, and Canada.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits mass rural and international displacement during the Salvadoran civil war.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Massacres, bombardment, political persecution, conscription, and rural warfare drove Salvadorans into cities, neighboring countries, Mexico, the United States, and Canada.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_central_america_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR regional overview: Central American civil-war displacement", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/in/publications/unhcr-global-appeal-1999-regional-overview-central-america" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 61.9995487405, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.9995487405, "unknown_bound_high": 61.9995487405 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 9.5201888744, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.5201888744, "unknown_bound_high": 9.5201888744 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.6266863032, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.6266863032, "unknown_bound_high": 26.6266863032 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 46.7744522974, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.7744522974, "unknown_bound_high": 46.7744522974 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 23.4647281055, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.4647281055, "unknown_bound_high": 23.4647281055 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-nicaragua-2018-repression-exile", "name": "Nicaragua's post-2018 repression and exile", "start": 2018, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2018–present", "region": "Central America", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Nicaraguan government, police, and pro-government armed groups" ], "victims": [ "Protesters, opposition supporters, journalists, students, human-rights defenders, and others forced abroad" ], "agent_countries": [ "Nicaragua" ], "victim_countries": [ "Nicaragua" ], "container_countries": [ "Nicaragua", "Costa Rica", "United States", "Spain" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Violent suppression of protests, arrest, surveillance, closure of civic organizations, and later denationalization pushed a large population into Costa Rica and farther abroad.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a new and distinct political-exile wave beginning in 2018.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Violent suppression of protests, arrest, surveillance, closure of civic organizations, and later denationalization pushed a large population into Costa Rica and farther abroad.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_nicaragua_2018_unhcr", "title": "UNHCR, Nicaraguan displacement after the 2018 crisis", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/news/briefing-notes/two-years-political-and-social-crisis-nicaragua-force-more-100000-flee" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 73.5454119116, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.5454119116, "unknown_bound_high": 73.5454119116 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 49.9107736301, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.9107736301, "unknown_bound_high": 49.9107736301 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 52.6050163413, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.6050163413, "unknown_bound_high": 52.6050163413 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.6578389185, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.6578389185, "unknown_bound_high": 34.6578389185 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 70.3379279294, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.3379279294, "unknown_bound_high": 70.3379279294 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-peru-internal-conflict-displacement", "name": "Peru internal armed conflict displacement", "start": 1980, "end": 2000, "date_label": "1980–2000", "region": "South America", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Shining Path, Peruvian security forces, MRTA, and associated local actors" ], "victims": [ "Predominantly rural Quechua-speaking and other civilians displaced from conflict zones" ], "agent_countries": [ "Peru" ], "victim_countries": [ "Peru" ], "container_countries": [ "Peru", "Bolivia", "Ecuador", "Chile" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Insurgent violence, military abuses, massacres, and fear forced rural residents into provincial cities and Lima, producing durable changes in land use and urban settlement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits large rural-to-urban displacement and the disproportionate impact on Indigenous highland communities.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Insurgent violence, military abuses, massacres, and fear forced rural residents into provincial cities and Lima, producing durable changes in land use and urban settlement.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_peru_cvr", "title": "Peru Truth and Reconciliation Commission, final conclusions", "url": "https://www.cverdad.org.pe/ingles/ifinal/conclusiones.php" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 48.3081071224, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.3081071224, "unknown_bound_high": 48.3081071224 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 16.4711652037, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.4711652037, "unknown_bound_high": 16.4711652037 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 32.9332152297, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.9332152297, "unknown_bound_high": 32.9332152297 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.5113112483, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.5113112483, "unknown_bound_high": 59.5113112483 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 23.4647281055, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.4647281055, "unknown_bound_high": 23.4647281055 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-panama-canal-zone-removals", "name": "Panama Canal Zone community removals", "start": 1904, "end": 1914, "date_label": "1904–1914", "region": "Central America", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "United States Canal Zone government and construction authorities" ], "victims": [ "Panamanian, Afro-Caribbean, and other residents removed from canal, reservoir, and segregated administrative zones" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States", "Panama" ], "victim_countries": [ "Panama" ], "container_countries": [ "Panama", "United States", "Barbados", "Jamaica" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Canal construction and the creation of the Canal Zone submerged or cleared settlements and reorganized residence by race, citizenship, labor status, and United States administrative control.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits removal of existing communities for a foreign-administered canal corridor, reservoir, and segregated settlement system.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Canal construction and the creation of the Canal Zone submerged or cleared settlements and reorganized residence by race, citizenship, labor status, and United States administrative control.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_panama_canal_displacement", "title": "Pueblos Perdidos: displacement at the Panama Canal", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/mit-press-scholarship-online/book/20164/chapter-abstract/179176515" }, { "id": "qc_panama_erased", "title": "Anuario Colombiano de Historia Social y de la Cultura, landscapes erased by the Panama Canal", "url": "https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/achsc/article/view/86176" } ], "rendered_case_id": "modern-panama-canal-zone-removals", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.8340968415, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.8340968415, "unknown_bound_high": 91.8340968415 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 66.4024429228, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.4024429228, "unknown_bound_high": 66.4024429228 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 58.2683729022, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.2683729022, "unknown_bound_high": 58.2683729022 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 83.444398926, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.444398926, "unknown_bound_high": 83.444398926 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 36.3537797049, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.3537797049, "unknown_bound_high": 36.3537797049 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 36.7294533865, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.7294533865, "unknown_bound_high": 36.7294533865 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-moriori-invasion-enslavement-land-seizure", "name": "Ngāti Mutunga and Ngāti Tama invasion and dispossession of Moriori", "start": 1835, "end": 1863, "date_label": "1835–1863", "region": "Rēkohu / Chatham Islands", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Ngāti Mutunga and Ngāti Tama migrants from mainland Aotearoa" ], "victims": [ "Moriori people killed, enslaved, prohibited from marrying, and dispossessed of land" ], "agent_countries": [ "New Zealand" ], "victim_countries": [ "New Zealand" ], "container_countries": [ "New Zealand" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "new-zealand", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Incoming iwi seized the Chatham Islands, killed and enslaved Moriori, imposed restrictions that accelerated demographic collapse, and later received most land through the Native Land Court before redress.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas's British settlement case begins later and does not capture this separate Māori invasion, settlement, enslavement, and land seizure on Rēkohu.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Incoming iwi seized the Chatham Islands, killed and enslaved Moriori, imposed restrictions that accelerated demographic collapse, and later received most land through the Native Land Court before redress.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_moriori_settlement", "title": "Moriori Claims Settlement Act 2021, agreed historical account", "url": "https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2021/49/en/latest/" }, { "id": "qc_moriori_deed", "title": "New Zealand Government, Moriori deed of settlement historical account", "url": "https://www.govt.nz/assets/Documents/OTS/Moriori/1.-Moriori-Deed-of-Settlement-Historical-Claims.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "modern-moriori-invasion-enslavement-land-seizure", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 24.8403262246, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.8403262246, "unknown_bound_high": 24.8403262246 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 68.927036921, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.927036921, "unknown_bound_high": 68.927036921 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 84.3400315244, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8585638752, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.4113043024, "unknown_bound_high": 86.5549167796 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 47.9133818629, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.9133818629, "unknown_bound_high": 47.9133818629 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 86.6381234123, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.6381234123, "unknown_bound_high": 86.6381234123 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 48.4795569948, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.4795569948, "unknown_bound_high": 48.4795569948 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-solomon-islands-tensions-displacement", "name": "Solomon Islands Tensions displacement", "start": 1998, "end": 2003, "date_label": "1998–2003", "region": "Melanesia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Guadalcanal and Malaitan militias and other armed actors" ], "victims": [ "Malaitan settlers expelled from rural Guadalcanal and Guadalcanal residents displaced by retaliatory violence" ], "agent_countries": [ "Solomon Islands" ], "victim_countries": [ "Solomon Islands" ], "container_countries": [ "Solomon Islands" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Militias forced many Malaitan residents from Guadalcanal amid disputes over land and political power; counterviolence and state collapse displaced additional communities.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits inter-island migration, land disputes, ethnic expulsion, and urban displacement during the Tensions.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Militias forced many Malaitan residents from Guadalcanal amid disputes over land and political power; counterviolence and state collapse displaced additional communities.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_solomon_tensions", "title": "Solomon Islands Truth and Reconciliation Commission, summary report", "url": "https://solomons.gov.sb/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/TRC-FINAL-Report-Summary-Condensed-Version.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 29.3891794515, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.3891794515, "unknown_bound_high": 29.3891794515 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 14.519117913, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.519117913, "unknown_bound_high": 14.519117913 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 1.8577131648, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.8577131648, "unknown_bound_high": 1.8577131648 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 83.8541244542, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.8541244542, "unknown_bound_high": 83.8541244542 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 41.0810404509, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.0810404509, "unknown_bound_high": 41.0810404509 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 39.9799797681, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.9799797681, "unknown_bound_high": 39.9799797681 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-bougainville-conflict-displacement", "name": "Bougainville conflict displacement", "start": 1988, "end": 1998, "date_label": "1988–1998", "region": "Melanesia", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Papua New Guinea security forces, Bougainville Revolutionary Army, resistance forces, and associated armed groups" ], "victims": [ "Bougainvillean civilians displaced by war, blockade, village destruction, and factional violence" ], "agent_countries": [ "Papua New Guinea" ], "victim_countries": [ "Papua New Guinea" ], "container_countries": [ "Papua New Guinea", "Solomon Islands" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Conflict around the Panguna mine and Bougainvillean self-determination escalated into war, blockade, displacement into care centers and forests, and cross-border refuge.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a major island conflict rooted partly in mine-related land loss and producing widespread internal displacement.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Conflict around the Panguna mine and Bougainvillean self-determination escalated into war, blockade, displacement into care centers and forests, and cross-border refuge.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_bougainville_displacement", "title": "OHCHR, Bougainville conflict evictions and displacement", "url": "https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/english/issues/housing/docs/fiji_report.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.9836848236, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.9836848236, "unknown_bound_high": 87.9836848236 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 35.2241068556, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.2241068556, "unknown_bound_high": 35.2241068556 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 1.8577131648, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.8577131648, "unknown_bound_high": 1.8577131648 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 32.9332152297, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.9332152297, "unknown_bound_high": 32.9332152297 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.55465017, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.55465017, "unknown_bound_high": 68.55465017 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 2.8641520454, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.8641520454, "unknown_bound_high": 2.8641520454 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-nauru-japanese-deportation", "name": "Japanese wartime deportation of Nauruans to Chuuk", "start": 1943, "end": 1946, "date_label": "1943–1946", "region": "Micronesia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Japanese occupation forces" ], "victims": [ "Nauruan civilians deported to Chuuk for forced labor and survival under wartime conditions" ], "agent_countries": [ "Japan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Nauru" ], "container_countries": [ "Nauru", "Federated States of Micronesia", "Japan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Japanese forces deported most of Nauru's Indigenous population to Chuuk, where forced labor, malnutrition, disease, and war caused heavy mortality before repatriation.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits wartime deportation of most Nauruans and the deaths that occurred before survivors returned.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Japanese forces deported most of Nauru's Indigenous population to Chuuk, where forced labor, malnutrition, disease, and war caused heavy mortality before repatriation.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_nauru_deportation", "title": "Government of Nauru, wartime deportation to Chuuk", "url": "https://www.nauru.gov.nr/media/58543/nauru_bulletin__12_02nov2018__180_.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.8340269673, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.8340269673, "unknown_bound_high": 92.8340269673 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 22.014173353, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.014173353, "unknown_bound_high": 22.014173353 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 23.2378906379, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.2378906379, "unknown_bound_high": 23.2378906379 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 33.8966965994, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.8966965994, "unknown_bound_high": 33.8966965994 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 73.9795299508, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.9795299508, "unknown_bound_high": 73.9795299508 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-canada-high-arctic-relocation", "name": "Canadian High Arctic Inuit relocations", "start": 1953, "end": 1955, "date_label": "1953–1955", "region": "Arctic North America", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Canadian federal authorities and Royal Canadian Mounted Police" ], "victims": [ "Inuit families moved from Inukjuak and Mittimatalik to Resolute and Grise Fiord" ], "agent_countries": [ "Canada" ], "victim_countries": [ "Canada" ], "container_countries": [ "Canada" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "british-north-america", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Federal authorities relocated Inuit families to unfamiliar far-northern environments with inadequate support and constrained return; sovereignty objectives formed part of the policy context.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas's broad Canadian settlement history omits state-directed Inuit relocation used to assert sovereignty in the High Arctic.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Federal authorities relocated Inuit families to unfamiliar far-northern environments with inadequate support and constrained return; sovereignty objectives formed part of the policy context.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_high_arctic_relocation", "title": "Government of Canada, High Arctic forced relocations", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/library-archives/collection/research-help/indigenous-history/indigenous-terminology.html" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 95.0366809937, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 95.0366809937, "unknown_bound_high": 95.0366809937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 21.6438322679, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6438322679, "unknown_bound_high": 21.6438322679 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 89.988997189, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.988997189, "unknown_bound_high": 89.988997189 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 65.0468408804, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.0468408804, "unknown_bound_high": 65.0468408804 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 41.4262707579, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.4262707579, "unknown_bound_high": 41.4262707579 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 53.5706719431, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.5706719431, "unknown_bound_high": 53.5706719431 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-japanese-american-forced-removal", "name": "Forced removal and incarceration of Japanese Americans", "start": 1942, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1942–1945", "region": "North America", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "United States federal government, military authorities, and cooperating state institutions" ], "victims": [ "Japanese American citizens and residents removed from the West Coast and incarcerated" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United States", "Japan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Executive Order 9066 enabled forced removal from homes and businesses and incarceration in camps; sale, abandonment, and seizure produced lasting property and community loss.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits race-based mass removal, property loss, and incarceration within the United States.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Executive Order 9066 enabled forced removal from homes and businesses and incarceration in camps; sale, abandonment, and seizure produced lasting property and community loss.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_japanese_american_removal", "title": "United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, Japanese American forced removal", "url": "https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/japanese-american-relocation" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.6808055102, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6808055102, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6808055102 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 66.7151448631, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.7151448631, "unknown_bound_high": 66.7151448631 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 5.5731394944, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.5731394944, "unknown_bound_high": 5.5731394944 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 70.9285934716, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.9285934716, "unknown_bound_high": 70.9285934716 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.9350526267, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.9350526267, "unknown_bound_high": 50.9350526267 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 22.9809540677, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.9809540677, "unknown_bound_high": 22.9809540677 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "modern-australia-stolen-generations", "name": "Australian Stolen Generations child removals", "start": 1910, "end": 1970, "date_label": "c. 1910–1970", "region": "Australia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Australian federal, state, and territory authorities, missions, and child-welfare institutions" ], "victims": [ "Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children removed from families and communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "Australia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Australia" ], "container_countries": [ "Australia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "australia", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Government and mission policies separated Indigenous children from family, Country, language, and culture and placed them in institutions, foster care, or non-Indigenous households.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas's land-settlement case does not identify child removal as a separate mechanism of family destruction and attempted assimilation.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Government and mission policies separated Indigenous children from family, Country, language, and culture and placed them in institutions, foster care, or non-Indigenous households.", "sources": [ { "id": "modern_australia_stolen_generations", "title": "Australian Human Rights Commission, Bringing Them Home", "url": "https://humanrights.gov.au/resource-hub/by-resource-type/publications/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples/first-nations/bringing-them-home" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 72.8679123372, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.8679123372, "unknown_bound_high": 72.8679123372 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 96.1389506488, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 96.1389506488, "unknown_bound_high": 96.1389506488 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 36.7086722189, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.7086722189, "unknown_bound_high": 36.7086722189 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 57.0704274348, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.0704274348, "unknown_bound_high": 57.0704274348 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.5821946679, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.5821946679, "unknown_bound_high": 49.5821946679 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75.7882901264, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.7882901264, "unknown_bound_high": 75.7882901264 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-lake-chad-slave-raiding-displacement", "name": "Lake Chad basin slave raiding and defensive displacement", "start": 1500, "end": 1900, "date_label": "c. 1500–1900", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "Bornu, Bagirmi, Wadai, Adamawa, and other states, armies, merchants, and raiding networks" ], "victims": [ "Communities south and east of Lake Chad subjected to capture, village destruction, flight, and defensive relocation" ], "agent_countries": [ "Chad", "Nigeria", "Cameroon", "Niger", "Sudan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Chad", "Nigeria", "Cameroon", "Niger", "Central African Republic", "Sudan" ], "container_countries": [ "Chad", "Nigeria", "Cameroon", "Niger", "Central African Republic", "Sudan", "Libya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "sokoto-caliphate", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "States around Lake Chad financed power through captive-taking and trans-Saharan sale. Raiding produced direct population removal and drove threatened communities into fortified, mountainous, or otherwise defensible settlement zones.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Sokoto entry neither covers earlier Lake Chad slave states nor the defensive settlement patterns created by centuries of raiding.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "States around Lake Chad financed power through captive-taking and trans-Saharan sale. Raiding produced direct population removal and drove threatened communities into fortified, mountainous, or otherwise defensible settlement zones.", "sources": [ { "id": "af_lake_chad_slave_raiding", "title": "Slave-Raiding and Defensive Systems South of Lake Chad", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/fighting-the-slave-trade/slaveraiding-and-defensive-systems-south-of-lake-chad-from-the-sixteenth-to-the-nineteenth-century/3652F433D19407031C1CFFD5CF538DB2" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.0026730844, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.0026730844, "unknown_bound_high": 77.0026730844 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 29.9377087336, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.9377087336, "unknown_bound_high": 29.9377087336 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 5.5731394944, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.5731394944, "unknown_bound_high": 5.5731394944 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 8.3734353489, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.3734353489, "unknown_bound_high": 8.3734353489 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 80.5990848913, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.5990848913, "unknown_bound_high": 80.5990848913 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 47.9607946306, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.9607946306, "unknown_bound_high": 47.9607946306 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "pacific-french-polynesia-nuclear-testing", "name": "French nuclear-test colonization and radiological displacement in Polynesia", "start": 1966, "end": 1996, "date_label": "1966–1996", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "The French state, military, and nuclear-test administration" ], "victims": [ "Polynesian test-site workers and downwind communities exposed to fallout and colonial secrecy", "Atoll land and marine systems appropriated for 193 tests" ], "agent_countries": [ "France" ], "victim_countries": [ "French Polynesia", "Cook Islands", "Samoa", "Tonga" ], "container_countries": [ "France", "French Polynesia", "Cook Islands", "Samoa", "Tonga" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "France conducted 193 nuclear tests in Polynesia, exposed workers and downwind communities, restricted and militarized test atolls, and obscured risks. The core harm was colonial environmental and bodily displacement rather than replacement by settlers.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits colonial appropriation of Moruroa and Fangataufa and the unequal imposition of radiological risk on Polynesian communities.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "France conducted 193 nuclear tests in Polynesia, exposed workers and downwind communities, restricted and militarized test atolls, and obscured risks. The core harm was colonial environmental and bodily displacement rather than replacement by settlers.", "sources": [ { "id": "pacific_french_nuclear_testing", "title": "Radiological Risk Imposition as Environmental Violence in French Polynesia", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/6547634E871B1F961A3964BE028F9006/core-reader" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.2057149408, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.2057149408, "unknown_bound_high": 81.2057149408 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 45.3750237923, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.3750237923, "unknown_bound_high": 45.3750237923 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 42.7011932885, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.7011932885, "unknown_bound_high": 42.7011932885 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 23.3127016812, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3127016812, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3127016812 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 24.2927405118, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.2927405118, "unknown_bound_high": 24.2927405118 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 45.2203114917, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.2203114917, "unknown_bound_high": 45.2203114917 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "caribbean-french-plantation-colonies", "name": "French Caribbean settler plantations, Indigenous dispossession, and slavery", "start": 1625, "end": 1848, "date_label": "1625–1848", "region": "Caribbean", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "French crown and colonial administrations", "European settlers, plantation owners, and militias" ], "victims": [ "Kalinago and other Indigenous island communities expelled, confined, or killed", "Enslaved Africans transported into plantation labor" ], "agent_countries": [ "France" ], "victim_countries": [ "Guadeloupe", "Martinique", "Saint Lucia", "Dominica", "Grenada", "Saint Vincent and the Grenadines", "Saint Martin", "Saint Barthélemy", "Haiti" ], "container_countries": [ "France", "Guadeloupe", "Martinique", "Saint Lucia", "Dominica", "Grenada", "Saint Vincent and the Grenadines", "Saint Martin", "Saint Barthélemy", "Haiti" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "spanish-caribbean | british-atlantic-colonies", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "French settlement displaced Indigenous island populations and built sugar colonies in which enslaved Africans formed most of the population. Abolition ended legal slavery in 1848 but colonial policing and land concentration preserved plantation power.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas jumps from Spanish destruction to British colonies and leaves French plantation settlement and slavery across the Antilles largely invisible.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "French settlement displaced Indigenous island populations and built sugar colonies in which enslaved Africans formed most of the population. Abolition ended legal slavery in 1848 but colonial policing and land concentration preserved plantation power.", "sources": [ { "id": "caribbean_french_plantation", "title": "Freedom of Movement and Abolition of Slavery in the French Caribbean", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-review-of-social-history/article/freedom-of-movement-access-to-the-urban-centres-and-abolition-of-slavery-in-the-french-caribbean/8D031B8D8890D1F6BEB24EA0870948B4" }, { "id": "qc_french_caribbean", "title": "Oxford Scholarship Online, French Caribbean plantation colonization", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/book/45803/chapter-abstract/400650671" } ], "rendered_case_id": "caribbean-french-plantation-colonies", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 58.117104026, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.117104026, "unknown_bound_high": 58.117104026 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 86.1146372675, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.1146372675, "unknown_bound_high": 86.1146372675 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 63.8285477765, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.8285477765, "unknown_bound_high": 63.8285477765 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 79.0066959114, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.0066959114, "unknown_bound_high": 79.0066959114 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 90.6879969367, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.6879969367, "unknown_bound_high": 90.6879969367 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.341555329, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.341555329, "unknown_bound_high": 77.341555329 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "caribbean-dutch-antilles-colonization-slavery", "name": "Dutch Caribbean conquest, settlement, and slavery", "start": 1634, "end": 1863, "date_label": "1634–1863", "region": "Caribbean", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Dutch West India Company and colonial governments", "Dutch and Sephardic Jewish settlers and slaveholders" ], "victims": [ "Indigenous residents subjected to conquest and demographic marginalization", "Enslaved Africans transported to the islands and through Curaçao's slave entrepôt" ], "agent_countries": [ "Netherlands" ], "victim_countries": [ "Aruba", "Curaçao", "Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba", "Sint Maarten", "Venezuela", "Ghana", "Benin", "Nigeria", "Angola" ], "container_countries": [ "Netherlands", "Aruba", "Curaçao", "Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba", "Sint Maarten", "Venezuela", "Ghana", "Benin", "Nigeria", "Angola" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Dutch conquest established company government and settler communities on Aruba, Curaçao, Bonaire, Sint Maarten, Saba, and Sint Eustatius, while enslaved Africans became central to island society and commerce. The six island settings had substantially different local histories and are mapped separately rather than collapsed into one regional point.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Dutch Antilles are absent despite conquest, European settlement, plantations, and a major slave-trading entrepôt.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Dutch conquest established company government and settler communities on Aruba, Curaçao, Bonaire, Sint Maarten, Saba, and Sint Eustatius, while enslaved Africans became central to island society and commerce. The six island settings had substantially different local histories and are mapped separately rather than collapsed into one regional point.", "sources": [ { "id": "caribbean_dutch_colonies", "title": "Curaçao, Aruba, Bonaire, Sint Maarten, Sint Eustatius and Saba", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/christianity-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean/curacao-aruba-bonaire-sint-maarten-sint-eustatius-and-saba/3E72970A442E55D2B15F23CB2D3BCF8D" }, { "id": "qc_dutch_caribbean", "title": "The Dutch Overseas Empire, the Caribbean", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/dutch-overseas-empire-16001800/caribbean/825DE672F0E6D7948FD8B8F740539D3E" } ], "rendered_case_id": "caribbean-dutch-antilles-colonization-slavery", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 60.4688511713, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.4688511713, "unknown_bound_high": 60.4688511713 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 74.9497142096, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.9497142096, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9497142096 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 70.9003540151, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.9003540151, "unknown_bound_high": 70.9003540151 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 53.3948183124, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.3948183124, "unknown_bound_high": 53.3948183124 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.5505350567, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.5505350567, "unknown_bound_high": 63.5505350567 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 90.2208759185, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.2208759185, "unknown_bound_high": 90.2208759185 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "pacific-german-samoa-plantation-labor", "name": "German Samoa plantation colonization and coerced imported labor", "start": 1867, "end": 1914, "date_label": "1867–1914", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "German plantation companies, settlers, and colonial government" ], "victims": [ "Samoans facing plantation land alienation", "Gilbertese, New Hebridean, New Guinean, Solomon Islander, Caroline Islander, and Chinese workers recruited under coercive colonial regimes" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany" ], "victim_countries": [ "Samoa", "Kiribati", "Vanuatu", "Papua New Guinea", "Solomon Islands", "Federated States of Micronesia", "China" ], "container_countries": [ "Germany", "Samoa", "Kiribati", "Vanuatu", "Papua New Guinea", "Solomon Islands", "Federated States of Micronesia", "China" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "European plantations acquired Samoan land and used thousands of imported Pacific and Chinese workers under highly restrictive contracts. Samoan customary society survived, so this was dispossessive plantation colonization without wholesale population replacement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Samoa's plantation land and labor colonization is missing, as are the Pacific communities from which workers were coerced or recruited.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "European plantations acquired Samoan land and used thousands of imported Pacific and Chinese workers under highly restrictive contracts. Samoan customary society survived, so this was dispossessive plantation colonization without wholesale population replacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "pacific_samoa_plantation_labor", "title": "How Chinese Migrant Workers Resisted Coconut Colonialism in Samoa", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/asia-pacific-journal/article/abs/how-chinese-migrant-workers-resisted-coconut-colonialism-in-samoa/E845CE47D55C08C91DE9A1831FB9386D" }, { "id": "qc_samoa_colonial", "title": "Oxford Scholarship Online, German colonialism and plantation labour in Samoa", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/book/60083/chapter-abstract/519686296" } ], "rendered_case_id": "pacific-german-samoa-plantation-labor", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 57.0726651281, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.0726651281, "unknown_bound_high": 57.0726651281 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 72.3256716005, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.3256716005, "unknown_bound_high": 72.3256716005 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 42.0023970118, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.0023970118, "unknown_bound_high": 42.0023970118 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 39.9118284095, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.9118284095, "unknown_bound_high": 39.9118284095 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 38.4055748504, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.4055748504, "unknown_bound_high": 38.4055748504 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 32.3856383817, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.3856383817, "unknown_bound_high": 32.3856383817 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "pacific-sokehs-deportation-pohnpei", "name": "German deportation of the Sokehs from Pohnpei", "start": 1910, "end": 1917, "date_label": "1910–1917", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "German colonial authorities and military" ], "victims": [ "The Sokehs people expelled after rebellion and deprived of their land" ], "agent_countries": [ "Germany" ], "victim_countries": [ "Federated States of Micronesia", "Palau" ], "container_countries": [ "Germany", "Federated States of Micronesia", "Palau" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "adjacent", "atlas_case_ids": "japanese-micronesia", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After suppressing the Sokehs Rebellion, Germany executed leaders, deported the community from Pohnpei, and confiscated its land. Japanese rule later permitted survivors to return.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas begins Micronesian colonization under Japan and omits German land reform and the wholesale deportation of a Pohnpeian community.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After suppressing the Sokehs Rebellion, Germany executed fifteen leaders, deported the remaining Sokehs community via Yap to Palau, and confiscated its land. More than one hundred men were forced to work in Angaur's phosphate mines; Japanese rule later permitted survivors to return.", "sources": [ { "id": "pacific_sokehs_deportation", "title": "Colonial Data Collection on Land and Law in German Micronesia", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/science-in-context/article/formative-encounters-colonial-data-collection-on-land-and-law-in-german-micronesia/32F34AEC186EDF08DC385A29FEE9F2A8" }, { "id": "qc_sokehs_bundesarchiv", "title": "German Federal Archives, the Sokehs rebellion and deportation on Ponape", "url": "https://www.bundesarchiv.de/themen-entdecken/online-entdecken/geschichtsgalerien/aufruhr-auf-ponape/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "pacific-sokehs-deportation-pohnpei", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.5185472698, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.5185472698, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5185472698 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 70.3716122513, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.3716122513, "unknown_bound_high": 70.3716122513 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 79.8386784978, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.8386784978, "unknown_bound_high": 79.8386784978 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 65.8585913768, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.8585913768, "unknown_bound_high": 65.8585913768 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.3327930778, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.3327930778, "unknown_bound_high": 59.3327930778 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 17.6143616183, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.6143616183, "unknown_bound_high": 17.6143616183 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "south-atlantic-british-falklands-colonization", "name": "British reoccupation and colonization of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas", "start": 1833, "end": 1843, "date_label": "1833–1843", "region": "South Atlantic", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "The British state, Royal Navy, colonial officials, and incoming settlers" ], "victims": [ "Argentine garrison members and officials forced to withdraw", "Civilians whose political order was displaced, though several gauchos and other residents remained" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas", "Argentina", "Uruguay" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas", "Argentina", "Uruguay" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Britain forced the Argentine garrison and officials to withdraw in 1833, retained or allowed some civilian workers to remain, and then built a permanent British colonial population. This was political displacement and settler colonization, not removal of every prior inhabitant.", "disputes": "Sovereignty remains disputed. Inclusion records population and institutional change without adjudicating title or treating present islanders as illegitimate residents.", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits British seizure from an existing Argentine political settlement and the creation of a durable British colony.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Britain forced the Argentine garrison and officials to withdraw in 1833, retained or allowed some civilian workers to remain, and then built a permanent British colonial population. This was political displacement and settler colonization, not removal of every prior inhabitant.", "sources": [ { "id": "south_atlantic_falklands_colonization", "title": "The British Reoccupation and Colonization of the Falkland Islands, 1832–1843", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/albion/article/abs/british-reoccupation-and-colonization-of-the-falkland-islands-or-malvinas-18321843/263A7F773FAB9ACB171947EED7093BE9" }, { "id": "qc_falklands_cambridge", "title": "Albion, British reoccupation and colonization of the Falkland Islands or Malvinas, 1832–1843", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/albion/article/abs/british-reoccupation-and-colonization-of-the-falkland-islands-or-malvinas-18321843/263A7F773FAB9ACB171947EED7093BE9" } ], "rendered_case_id": "south-atlantic-british-falklands-colonization", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.5488430291, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.5488430291, "unknown_bound_high": 77.5488430291 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.3892434445, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.3892434445, "unknown_bound_high": 69.3892434445 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.7568936828, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.7568936828, "unknown_bound_high": 72.7568936828 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.9828639863, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.9828639863, "unknown_bound_high": 60.9828639863 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 23.2263367301, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.2263367301, "unknown_bound_high": 23.2263367301 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.3783162484, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.3783162484, "unknown_bound_high": 77.3783162484 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "indian-ocean-mayotte-wuambushu-evictions", "name": "Operation Wuambushu evictions and removals in Mayotte", "start": 2023, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2023–present", "region": "Indian Ocean", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "French national and Mayotte prefectural authorities" ], "victims": [ "Comorian and other residents evicted through informal-settlement demolition", "Migrants subjected to exceptional removal rules" ], "agent_countries": [ "France" ], "victim_countries": [ "Mayotte", "Comoros", "France" ], "container_countries": [ "France", "Mayotte", "Comoros" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "French authorities demolished informal settlements and intensified immigration removals under Operation Wuambushu. UN treaty bodies found that many families were evicted and called for housing safeguards; this is current state displacement, not settler replacement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a current overseas-department operation combining mass housing demolition, eviction, and intensified deportation.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "French authorities demolished informal settlements and intensified immigration removals under Operation Wuambushu. UN treaty bodies found that many families were evicted and called for housing safeguards; this is current state displacement, not settler replacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "indian_ocean_mayotte_evictions_un", "title": "UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights: Operation Wuambushu in Mayotte", "url": "https://docstore.ohchr.org/SelfServices/FilesHandler.ashx?enc=Dw%2FT%2B56ChzrNf3eawJB3qMS4BdxMyi%2FVIM7FHpszZRmMtV6dZYdsY4DT7KwtoVlUMp2jehy%2B9v8h39BaP16FTQ%3D%3D" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.8072140883, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.8072140883, "unknown_bound_high": 93.8072140883 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 51.9944160492, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.9944160492, "unknown_bound_high": 51.9944160492 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 33.2709940397, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.2709940397, "unknown_bound_high": 33.2709940397 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 37.7370681316, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.7370681316, "unknown_bound_high": 37.7370681316 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 46.1613255218, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.1613255218, "unknown_bound_high": 46.1613255218 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "pacific-peruvian-polynesian-slave-raids", "name": "Peruvian slave raids across Polynesia", "start": 1862, "end": 1864, "date_label": "1862–1864", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "Peruvian merchants, shipowners, recruiters, and state-licensed labor traders" ], "victims": [ "Polynesian islanders kidnapped or deceived into removal to Peru, with catastrophic mortality and few returns" ], "agent_countries": [ "Peru" ], "victim_countries": [ "Rapa Nui", "Tokelau", "Niue", "Cook Islands", "Samoa", "Tonga", "Kiribati", "Tuvalu", "French Polynesia" ], "container_countries": [ "Peru", "Rapa Nui", "Tokelau", "Niue", "Cook Islands", "Samoa", "Tonga", "Kiribati", "Tuvalu", "French Polynesia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "incomplete", "atlas_case_ids": "rapa-nui | vanuatu", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Peru's nominally contractual labor trade became an archipelago-wide kidnapping campaign. Tokelau lost almost all able-bodied men, Rapa Nui lost political and cultural leaders, and mortality in Peru and on return made the demographic damage far larger than the number removed.", "disputes": "Island-level totals and the boundary between deception, coercive recruitment, and outright kidnapping vary by voyage; the campaign's slave-trading character and mass mortality are not in serious dispute.", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas mentions the Rapa Nui raid and a different blackbirding system in Vanuatu, but does not represent the single trans-Pacific raiding campaign that devastated Tokelau and struck numerous other islands.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Peru's nominally contractual labor trade became an archipelago-wide kidnapping campaign. Tokelau lost almost all able-bodied men, Rapa Nui lost political and cultural leaders, and mortality in Peru and on return made the demographic damage far larger than the number removed.", "sources": [ { "id": "pacific_peruvian_slave_raids", "title": "H. E. Maude, Slavers in Paradise: The Peruvian Labour Trade in Polynesia, 1862–1864", "url": "https://books.google.com/books/about/Slavers_in_Paradise.html?id=n9YmHCQjn2kC" }, { "id": "pacific_tokelau_slave_raids", "title": "United Nations, Decolonization: Tokelau and the 1863 slave raids", "url": "https://www.un.org/dppa/decolonization/sites/www.un.org.dppa.decolonization/files/decon_num_30.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 48.7022329071, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.7022329071, "unknown_bound_high": 48.7022329071 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 9.623676636, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.623676636, "unknown_bound_high": 9.623676636 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 5.5731394944, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.5731394944, "unknown_bound_high": 5.5731394944 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 27.2739633379, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.2739633379, "unknown_bound_high": 27.2739633379 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 72.5433728033, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.5433728033, "unknown_bound_high": 72.5433728033 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 13.7864401114, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.7864401114, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "pacific-norfolk-pitcairn-colonial-resettlement", "name": "Norfolk penal transportation and Pitcairn resettlement", "start": 1788, "end": 1864, "date_label": "1788–1814, 1825–1855, and 1856–1864", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "British imperial and Australian colonial authorities" ], "victims": [ "Convicts transported to two penal settlements", "The entire Pitcairn community transferred in 1856, some of whom later returned" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Norfolk Island", "Pitcairn Islands" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Australia", "Norfolk Island", "Pitcairn Islands" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Britain used Norfolk Island for two convict settlements after an earlier Polynesian occupation had ended. When the second penal settlement closed, the British government moved all 194 Pitcairn Islanders to the then nearly empty island; a minority returned to Pitcairn in 1858 and 1864. The episode formed populations but did not displace a resident Indigenous community on Norfolk in 1856.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a territory whose current society followed two coercive penal settlements and a state-assisted whole-community transfer from Pitcairn.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Britain used Norfolk Island for two convict settlements after an earlier Polynesian occupation had ended. When the second penal settlement closed, the British government moved all 194 Pitcairn Islanders to the then nearly empty island; a minority returned to Pitcairn in 1858 and 1864. The episode formed populations but did not displace a resident Indigenous community on Norfolk in 1856.", "sources": [ { "id": "pacific_norfolk_history", "title": "Australian Government, Norfolk Island History and Heritage", "url": "https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/territories-regions-cities/territories/norfolk-island/history" }, { "id": "pacific_pitcairn_transfer", "title": "Government of the Pitcairn Islands, History", "url": "https://www.government.pn/history" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.4938409045, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.4938409045, "unknown_bound_high": 84.4938409045 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 51.5654858112, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.5654858112, "unknown_bound_high": 51.5654858112 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 76.3614204712, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.3614204712, "unknown_bound_high": 76.3614204712 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 53.9065127008, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.9065127008, "unknown_bound_high": 53.9065127008 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.1297532894, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.1297532894, "unknown_bound_high": 50.1297532894 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75.8828991222, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.8828991222, "unknown_bound_high": 75.8828991222 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "indian-ocean-maldives-gan-base-relocation", "name": "Removal of Gan and Feydhoo islanders for British bases", "start": 1941, "end": 1976, "date_label": "1941–1976", "region": "Indian Ocean", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "British military authorities", "Maldivian government" ], "victims": [ "Gan and Feydhoo residents transferred to neighboring islands for naval, air, and communications facilities" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Maldives" ], "victim_countries": [ "Maldives" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Maldives" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "British construction at Gan first cleared land for wartime use and later expanded into RAF Gan. Residents of Gan and neighboring Feydhoo were relocated, with the two governments negotiating housing and compensation on resettlement islands. The process was military-base displacement, not settler replacement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits the clearing of inhabited Maldivian islands for a British wartime and Cold War base complex.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "British construction at Gan first cleared land for wartime use and later expanded into RAF Gan. Residents of Gan and neighboring Feydhoo were relocated, with the two governments negotiating housing and compensation on resettlement islands. The process was military-base displacement, not settler replacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "indian_ocean_maldives_gan_hansard", "title": "UK Parliament, Maldive Islands Air Staging Base and displaced Gan residents", "url": "https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/1957-11-28/debates/9d65dc4c-9fa2-476f-96c8-3d64be1d2548/MaldiveIslands%28AirStagingBase%29" }, { "id": "indian_ocean_maldives_relocation_study", "title": "What drives relocation policies in the Maldives?", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02919-8" } ], "rendered_case_id": "indian-ocean-maldives-gan-base-relocation", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.3521606912, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 94.3521606912, "unknown_bound_high": 94.3521606912 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 42.1882405513, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.1882405513, "unknown_bound_high": 42.1882405513 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 34.4306589036, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.4306589036, "unknown_bound_high": 34.4306589036 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 56.0762834179, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.0762834179, "unknown_bound_high": 56.0762834179 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.2305494096, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.2305494096, "unknown_bound_high": 6.2305494096 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-balochistan-counterinsurgency-displacement", "name": "Balochistan counterinsurgency, disappearance, and conflict displacement", "start": 1948, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1948–present, especially 1973–1977 and 2005–present", "region": "South and West Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Pakistani and Iranian security institutions", "Baloch separatist armed groups targeting civilians and alleged settlers" ], "victims": [ "Baloch civilians, activists, and communities displaced or subjected to disappearance", "Non-Baloch civilians and workers attacked or driven out by separatist violence" ], "agent_countries": [ "Pakistan", "Iran" ], "victim_countries": [ "Balochistan (cross-border)", "Pakistan", "Iran", "Afghanistan" ], "container_countries": [ "Balochistan (cross-border)", "Pakistan", "Iran", "Afghanistan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Successive insurgencies and counterinsurgency operations have displaced Baloch communities and produced extensive allegations and documentation of enforced disappearance. Separatist groups have also killed non-Baloch civilians and workers as alleged settlers or state collaborators. The evidence supports a conflict-displacement entry, not a simple one-direction settler-colonial case.", "disputes": "Casualty, disappearance, and displacement totals are heavily contested and access is restricted. The Pakistani, Iranian, and Afghan portions have distinct histories and must not be collapsed into one causal story on the map.", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits a long-running cross-border conflict involving internal displacement, enforced disappearance, state repression, and separatist attacks framed against outsiders.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Successive insurgencies and counterinsurgency operations have displaced Baloch communities and produced extensive allegations and documentation of enforced disappearance. Separatist groups have also killed non-Baloch civilians and workers as alleged settlers or state collaborators. The evidence supports a conflict-displacement entry, not a simple one-direction settler-colonial case.", "sources": [ { "id": "asia_balochistan_hrw", "title": "Human Rights Watch, Enforced Disappearances by Pakistan Security Forces in Balochistan", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/2011/07/28/we-can-torture-kill-or-keep-you-years/enforced-disappearances-pakistan-security" }, { "id": "asia_balochistan_idmc", "title": "Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, displacement in Pakistan and Balochistan", "url": "https://www.refworld.org/reference/annualreport/idmc/2010/en/68120" }, { "id": "asia_balochistan_iran_ohchr", "title": "OHCHR Special Procedures communication on executions of Baluch people in Iran", "url": "https://spcommreports.ohchr.org/TMResultsBase/DownLoadPublicCommunicationFile?gId=26041" }, { "id": "asia_baloch_crossborder_mrg", "title": "Minority Rights Group, Baluchis in Afghanistan and the cross-border region", "url": "https://minorityrights.org/communities/baluchis/" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.0978033422, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.0978033422, "unknown_bound_high": 85.0978033422 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 64.1469446557, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.1469446557, "unknown_bound_high": 64.1469446557 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 34.9361418567, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.9361418567, "unknown_bound_high": 34.9361418567 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 33.3798402597, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.3798402597, "unknown_bound_high": 33.3798402597 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.5907842354, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.5907842354, "unknown_bound_high": 50.5907842354 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 68.9549190177, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.9549190177, "unknown_bound_high": 68.9549190177 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-japanese-borneo-occupation-forced-labor", "name": "Japanese occupation, flight, and forced labor in Borneo", "start": 1941, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1941–1945", "region": "Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "Imperial Japanese military and occupation administration" ], "victims": [ "Bruneian and other Bornean civilians driven from towns", "Javanese, Chinese, and other workers transported into forced labor", "Interned and persecuted civilians" ], "agent_countries": [ "Japan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Brunei", "Malaysia", "Indonesia", "China" ], "container_countries": [ "Japan", "Brunei", "Malaysia", "Indonesia", "China" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Japanese occupation unified British and Dutch Borneo under military administration, drove many Bruneians from towns into the interior, and imported thousands of forced laborers from Java and occupied China. It was extractive wartime occupation rather than durable settler replacement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas's Japanese imperial cases do not cover Borneo's wartime flight, internment, and imported forced labor system.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Japanese occupation unified British and Dutch Borneo under military administration, drove many Bruneians from towns into the interior, and imported thousands of forced laborers from Java and occupied China. It was extractive wartime occupation rather than durable settler replacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "asia_japanese_borneo_occupation", "title": "Ooi Keat Gin, The Japanese Occupation of Borneo, 1941–45", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Japanese-Occupation-of-Borneo-1941-45/KeatGin/p/book/9780415837903" }, { "id": "asia_brunei_wartime_flight_labor", "title": "Dayaks in a Ledger: A Bornean Labor History and an Oil Town's Indigenous Workers", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-labor-and-working-class-history/article/dayaks-in-a-ledger-a-bornean-labor-history-and-an-oil-towns-indigenous-workers/2DE9A021EF59B8B0BD1596CADAE72CD6" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.9279485245, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.9279485245, "unknown_bound_high": 84.9279485245 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 45.8679830079, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.8679830079, "unknown_bound_high": 45.8679830079 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 28.8110301322, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.8110301322, "unknown_bound_high": 28.8110301322 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 24.8677532208, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.8677532208, "unknown_bound_high": 24.8677532208 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 80.8163558312, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.8163558312, "unknown_bound_high": 80.8163558312 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 } } }, { "event_id": "europe-great-wrath-aland-flight", "name": "Russian occupation of Finland and flight from Åland during the Great Wrath", "start": 1713, "end": 1723, "date_label": "1713–1723", "region": "Northern Europe", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Russian imperial army and occupation authorities" ], "victims": [ "Finnish civilians subjected to devastation, abduction, and flight", "Most of Åland's population, which fled to Sweden before occupation and returned after peace" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Finland", "Åland", "Sweden" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia", "Finland", "Åland", "Sweden" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "During the Great Northern War, Russian forces occupied Finland and Åland. Most Ålanders fled to Sweden in 1714; the islands were devastated, remained under occupation until 1721, and were repopulated mainly by returning inhabitants in 1721–1723.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits an occupation that devastated Finland, abducted civilians, and caused the majority of Åland's population to flee across the sea.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "During the Great Northern War, Russian forces occupied Finland and Åland. Most Ålanders fled to Sweden in 1714; the islands were devastated, remained under occupation until 1721, and were repopulated mainly by returning inhabitants in 1721–1723.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_aland_great_wrath", "title": "Visit Åland, Åland history: Great Wrath and population flight", "url": "https://visitaland.com/en/experience/history/aland-history/" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 75.3307679658, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.3307679658, "unknown_bound_high": 75.3307679658 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.5787652424, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.5787652424, "unknown_bound_high": 10.5787652424 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 3.7154263296, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.7154263296, "unknown_bound_high": 3.7154263296 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 40.1696888506, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.1696888506, "unknown_bound_high": 40.1696888506 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.8492942185, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.8492942185, "unknown_bound_high": 49.8492942185 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "europe-norse-settlement-faroes", "name": "Norse settlement of the Faroe Islands and the unresolved fate of earlier occupants", "start": 750, "end": 950, "date_label": "c. 750–950 CE", "region": "North Atlantic", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Norse and Norse-Gaelic settlers, including people arriving from Norway and the British Isles" ], "victims": [ "Earlier inhabitants of unknown identity whose presence is archaeologically established but whose number and fate are unknown" ], "agent_countries": [ "Norway", "United Kingdom", "Ireland" ], "victim_countries": [ "Faroe Islands" ], "container_countries": [ "Faroe Islands", "Norway", "United Kingdom", "Ireland" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Sedimentary DNA and livestock biomarkers establish human occupation three to four centuries before large-scale Norse settlement. Norse and Norse-Gaelic settlers created the enduring Faroese population, but the evidence does not show whether earlier occupants were killed, expelled, absorbed, or had already left.", "disputes": "The pre-Norse occupants' identity, population size, continuity, and fate are unknown. This is a colonization candidate with an explicit uncertainty flag, not evidence of a demonstrated displacement event.", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits Norse colonization of the Faroes and therefore never confronts new evidence that people were present centuries before the conventional Viking-age landnám.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Sedimentary DNA and livestock biomarkers establish human occupation three to four centuries before large-scale Norse settlement. Norse and Norse-Gaelic settlers created the enduring Faroese population, but the evidence does not show whether earlier occupants were killed, expelled, absorbed, or had already left.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_faroe_early_occupation_dna", "title": "Sedimentary DNA and molecular evidence for early human occupation of the Faroe Islands", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00318-0" }, { "id": "eu_faroe_population_history", "title": "Faroe Islands, People and population history", "url": "https://www.faroeislands.fo/people-society/population/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "europe-norse-settlement-faroes", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 5.7303365769, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.3632988747, "unknown_bound_high": 11.7684671792 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 16.9295942838, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8559360647, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4906503084, "unknown_bound_high": 28.8970438377 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 78.3401574207, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.3401574207, "unknown_bound_high": 78.3401574207 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.3611381805, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2019832245, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.1919373268, "unknown_bound_high": 91.9936148725 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.1155520612, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.7776030618, "unknown_bound_high": 94.2223969382 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 91.5517618915, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.1434063715, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6045051906 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "europe-monaco-jewish-refugee-deportations", "name": "Arrest and deportation of Jewish refugees from Monaco", "start": 1942, "end": 1944, "date_label": "1942–1944", "region": "Western Europe", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Monegasque police and government under Vichy pressure", "Vichy French and Nazi German authorities" ], "victims": [ "Jewish refugees and residents arrested in Monaco and transferred into the Holocaust deportation system" ], "agent_countries": [ "Monaco", "France", "Germany" ], "victim_countries": [ "Monaco", "France", "Germany", "Austria", "Italy" ], "container_countries": [ "Monaco", "France", "Germany", "Austria", "Italy" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Monegasque police arrested Jewish refugees during the August 1942 roundup ordered under Vichy pressure and transferred them to the French-German deportation apparatus; further arrests followed under occupation. Monaco's own expert inquiry reconstructed the arrests and state responsibility.", "disputes": "Published totals vary with definitions and later arrests. The official expert report should control case-level numbers rather than a single popular estimate.", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas omits Monaco's participation in the arrest and removal of Jewish refugees and residents during the Holocaust.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Monegasque police arrested Jewish refugees during the August 1942 roundup ordered under Vichy pressure and transferred them to the French-German deportation apparatus; further arrests followed under occupation. Monaco's own expert inquiry reconstructed the arrests and state responsibility.", "sources": [ { "id": "eu_monaco_jewish_deportations", "title": "Principality of Monaco expert report on spoliation and arrests during the Second World War", "url": "https://www.gouv.mc/content/download/188420/2168781/file/Report%20of%20experts%20group%20-%2012th%20February%202015%20.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 89.5117047874, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.5117047874, "unknown_bound_high": 89.5117047874 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 61.7126328225, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.7126328225, "unknown_bound_high": 61.7126328225 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 83.770742074, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.770742074, "unknown_bound_high": 83.770742074 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.8301185583, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.8301185583, "unknown_bound_high": 61.8301185583 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 24.5098112046, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.5098112046, "unknown_bound_high": 24.5098112046 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prehistory-neolithic-aegean-balkans", "name": "Anatolian farmer settlement of the Aegean and Balkans", "start": -6500, "end": -5500, "date_label": "c. 6500–5500 BCE", "region": "Southeastern Europe", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Anatolian-descended Neolithic farming communities crossing through the Aegean" ], "victims": [ "Mesolithic foragers of the Aegean and Balkan regions, variably absorbed, displaced, or demographically marginalized" ], "agent_countries": [ "Turkey" ], "victim_countries": [ "Greece", "Bulgaria", "North Macedonia", "Serbia", "Romania", "Albania", "Croatia" ], "container_countries": [ "Turkey", "Greece", "Bulgaria", "North Macedonia", "Serbia", "Romania", "Albania", "Croatia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "anatolian-neolithic", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Farming populations closely related to northwestern Anatolian groups entered the Aegean and Balkans and established durable village societies. Ancient DNA supports substantial demic movement, while the local balance of replacement, admixture, and retreat by foragers varied.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas combines the first Aegean-Balkan farming frontier with later Danubian, Mediterranean, and Atlantic dispersals whose routes and demographic outcomes differed.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Farming populations closely related to northwestern Anatolian groups entered the Aegean and Balkans and established durable village societies. Ancient DNA supports substantial demic movement, while the local balance of replacement, admixture, and retreat by foragers varied.", "sources": [ { "id": "neolithic_lazaridis", "title": "Lazaridis et al. 2014 (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13673" }, { "id": "neolithic_brace", "title": "Brace et al. 2019 (Nature Ecology & Evolution)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-019-0871-9" } ], "rendered_case_id": "prehistory-neolithic-aegean-balkans", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 11.0130395537, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.175089546, "unknown_bound_high": 17.7837974197 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 85.617430903, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.617430903, "unknown_bound_high": 85.617430903 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 63.7948269454, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.832531293, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.1111897649, "unknown_bound_high": 69.8580604628 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 12.8059490456, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2369025307, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 79.3435086646 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 90.6541758856, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.6541758856, "unknown_bound_high": 90.6541758856 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prehistory-neolithic-danubian-lbk", "name": "Danubian and Linear Pottery farmer expansion into central Europe", "start": -5700, "end": -4900, "date_label": "c. 5700–4900 BCE", "region": "Central Europe", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Starčevo-Körös and Linear Pottery farming communities of predominantly Anatolian farmer ancestry" ], "victims": [ "Central European Mesolithic foragers, initially marginalized and later partly absorbed" ], "agent_countries": [ "Hungary", "Serbia", "Croatia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Hungary", "Austria", "Slovakia", "Czechia", "Germany", "Poland", "France", "Belgium", "Netherlands", "Romania" ], "container_countries": [ "Hungary", "Serbia", "Croatia", "Austria", "Slovakia", "Czechia", "Germany", "Poland", "France", "Belgium", "Netherlands", "Romania" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "anatolian-neolithic", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Farming villages expanded rapidly from the middle Danube through the loess plains of central Europe. The initial migrant ancestry was strongly Anatolian-farmer-derived, followed by renewed forager admixture rather than one instantaneous total replacement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Danubian/LBK expansion is hidden inside a continent-wide arrow even though it was a distinct rapid settlement corridor with later region-specific admixture.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Farming villages expanded rapidly from the middle Danube through the loess plains of central Europe. The initial migrant ancestry was strongly Anatolian-farmer-derived, followed by renewed forager admixture rather than one instantaneous total replacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "neolithic_lazaridis", "title": "Lazaridis et al. 2014 (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13673" }, { "id": "neolithic_brace", "title": "Brace et al. 2019 (Nature Ecology & Evolution)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-019-0871-9" } ], "rendered_case_id": "prehistory-neolithic-danubian-lbk", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.8524135626, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.8745109599, "unknown_bound_high": 19.4832188336 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 89.1533340223, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.1533340223, "unknown_bound_high": 89.1533340223 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 63.7214595441, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.7214595441, "unknown_bound_high": 63.7214595441 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 41.198157186, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3656319173, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.0633611999, "unknown_bound_high": 78.5001694728 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 85.6620232036, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.6620232036, "unknown_bound_high": 85.6620232036 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prehistory-neolithic-mediterranean-cardial", "name": "Mediterranean Cardial farmer expansion", "start": -6000, "end": -4500, "date_label": "c. 6000–4500 BCE", "region": "Mediterranean Europe", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Maritime Neolithic farming communities of predominantly Anatolian farmer ancestry" ], "victims": [ "Mesolithic coastal and interior foragers of the central and western Mediterranean" ], "agent_countries": [ "Greece", "Croatia", "Italy" ], "victim_countries": [ "Croatia", "Italy", "Malta", "France", "Monaco", "Spain", "Portugal" ], "container_countries": [ "Greece", "Croatia", "Italy", "Malta", "France", "Monaco", "Spain", "Portugal" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "anatolian-neolithic", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Seaborne and coastwise farming groups moved through the Adriatic and western Mediterranean, establishing new settlements and transforming land use. Ancient DNA shows migrant-driven expansion with locally variable forager survival and admixture.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The maritime Mediterranean route is not the same event as LBK expansion up the Danube and should not inherit its timing or uniform replacement claim.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Seaborne and coastwise farming groups moved through the Adriatic and western Mediterranean, establishing new settlements and transforming land use. Ancient DNA shows migrant-driven expansion with locally variable forager survival and admixture.", "sources": [ { "id": "neolithic_lazaridis", "title": "Lazaridis et al. 2014 (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13673" }, { "id": "neolithic_brace", "title": "Brace et al. 2019 (Nature Ecology & Evolution)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-019-0871-9" } ], "rendered_case_id": "prehistory-neolithic-mediterranean-cardial", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.6777950169, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.8653527867, "unknown_bound_high": 17.4740606604 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 85.617430903, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.617430903, "unknown_bound_high": 85.617430903 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.1490526246, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.1490526246, "unknown_bound_high": 61.1490526246 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 25.3964648585, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3656319173, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.2857581381, "unknown_bound_high": 72.722566411 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 93.1097853844, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.904260572, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.1955077915, "unknown_bound_high": 93.7694505904 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prehistory-neolithic-britain-ireland-turnover", "name": "Neolithic farmer settlement and ancestry turnover in Britain and Ireland", "start": -4200, "end": -3500, "date_label": "c. 4200–3500 BCE", "region": "Northwestern Europe", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Continental Neolithic farmers whose ancestry derived through Mediterranean and Atlantic routes" ], "victims": [ "Britain and Ireland's Mesolithic forager populations" ], "agent_countries": [ "France", "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Ireland" ], "container_countries": [ "France", "Spain", "United Kingdom", "Ireland" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "anatolian-neolithic", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Neolithic migrants crossed from continental Europe and replaced most sampled Mesolithic ancestry in Britain and Ireland within a comparatively short interval. The genetic turnover is clear even though direct violence, disease, demographic imbalance, and social incorporation cannot be apportioned precisely.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The late Atlantic crossing and near-total ancestry turnover in Britain and Ireland are obscured by an entry beginning two millennia earlier in Anatolia.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Neolithic migrants crossed from continental Europe and replaced most sampled Mesolithic ancestry in Britain and Ireland within a comparatively short interval. The genetic turnover is clear even though direct violence, disease, demographic imbalance, and social incorporation cannot be apportioned precisely.", "sources": [ { "id": "neolithic_brace", "title": "Brace et al. 2019 (Nature Ecology & Evolution)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-019-0871-9" }, { "id": "neolithic_lazaridis", "title": "Lazaridis et al. 2014 (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13673" } ], "rendered_case_id": "prehistory-neolithic-britain-ireland-turnover", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.8384210079, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.1659313728, "unknown_bound_high": 15.7746392465 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 89.1533340223, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.1533340223, "unknown_bound_high": 89.1533340223 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 72.5268555053, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.5268555053, "unknown_bound_high": 72.5268555053 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 12.8059490456, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2369025307, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 79.3435086646 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 95.007847318, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 95.007847318, "unknown_bound_high": 95.007847318 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prehistory-yamnaya-lower-danube-expansion", "name": "Yamnaya movement into the lower Danube and Carpathian Basin", "start": -3300, "end": -2600, "date_label": "c. 3300–2600 BCE", "region": "Eastern and Southeastern Europe", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Pontic-Caspian steppe pastoralists associated with Yamnaya material traditions" ], "victims": [ "Late Neolithic and Chalcolithic farming populations of the lower Danube and Carpathian Basin" ], "agent_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Russia", "Moldova" ], "victim_countries": [ "Moldova", "Romania", "Bulgaria", "Serbia", "Hungary", "Ukraine" ], "container_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Russia", "Moldova", "Romania", "Bulgaria", "Serbia", "Hungary" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "yamnaya-steppe", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Steppe pastoralist groups entered the lower Danube and Carpathian Basin, adding a major new ancestry component and new burial and mobility systems. The regional process preceded and helped generate later steppe-derived populations farther west.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Direct Yamnaya movement into southeastern Europe is merged with later Corded Ware and Bell Beaker population formations that were not simply Yamnaya colonies.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Steppe pastoralist groups entered the lower Danube and Carpathian Basin, adding a major new ancestry component and new burial and mobility systems. The regional process preceded and helped generate later steppe-derived populations farther west.", "sources": [ { "id": "steppe_haak", "title": "Haak et al. 2015 (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14317" }, { "id": "steppe_olalde", "title": "Olalde et al. 2018, The Beaker phenomenon (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25738" } ], "rendered_case_id": "prehistory-yamnaya-lower-danube-expansion", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 6.4987763428, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0043034355, "unknown_bound_high": 13.6130113091 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 45.0794689474, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.0794689474, "unknown_bound_high": 45.0794689474 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 29.9259948453, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8447619738, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.2803424732, "unknown_bound_high": 40.8041450941 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.1940509544, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2369025307, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.7339280672, "unknown_bound_high": 91.0436749946 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 72.1070458965, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.1070458965, "unknown_bound_high": 72.1070458965 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prehistory-corded-ware-central-northern-europe", "name": "Corded Ware population formation across central and northern Europe", "start": -2900, "end": -2300, "date_label": "c. 2900–2300 BCE", "region": "Central and Northern Europe", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Steppe-derived and locally admixed communities associated with Corded Ware" ], "victims": [ "Late Neolithic farming populations, variably replaced and absorbed" ], "agent_countries": [ "Poland", "Ukraine", "Belarus", "Lithuania" ], "victim_countries": [ "Poland", "Germany", "Czechia", "Slovakia", "Austria", "Denmark", "Sweden", "Norway", "Finland", "Lithuania", "Latvia", "Estonia", "Netherlands", "Switzerland" ], "container_countries": [ "Poland", "Ukraine", "Belarus", "Lithuania", "Germany", "Czechia", "Slovakia", "Austria", "Denmark", "Sweden", "Norway", "Finland", "Latvia", "Estonia", "Netherlands", "Switzerland" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "yamnaya-steppe", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Communities with large steppe-derived ancestry spread across central and northern Europe and mixed with local farmers. The scale of ancestry change supports demographic expansion, while a single uniform mechanism of violent displacement cannot be assumed across the whole zone.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Corded Ware was a broad secondary population formation with substantial steppe ancestry, not a single westward Yamnaya wave.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Communities with large steppe-derived ancestry spread across central and northern Europe and mixed with local farmers. The scale of ancestry change supports demographic expansion, while a single uniform mechanism of violent displacement cannot be assumed across the whole zone.", "sources": [ { "id": "steppe_haak", "title": "Haak et al. 2015 (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14317" }, { "id": "steppe_olalde", "title": "Olalde et al. 2018, The Beaker phenomenon (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25738" } ], "rendered_case_id": "prehistory-corded-ware-central-northern-europe", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.5031764712, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.8561946135, "unknown_bound_high": 15.4649024872 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 57.1119189389, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.1119189389, "unknown_bound_high": 57.1119189389 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.1678095569, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8447619738, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.4665240055, "unknown_bound_high": 51.9903266263 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 66.8681936136, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3730735329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.9467532286, "unknown_bound_high": 87.6393999408 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 78.3375953061, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.3375953061, "unknown_bound_high": 78.3375953061 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prehistory-beaker-britain-ancestry-turnover", "name": "Bell Beaker migration and ancestry turnover in Britain", "start": -2500, "end": -1800, "date_label": "c. 2500–1800 BCE", "region": "Northwestern Europe", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Continental Bell Beaker-associated migrants with substantial steppe ancestry" ], "victims": [ "Britain's established Neolithic farmer-descended population" ], "agent_countries": [ "Netherlands", "Germany", "France" ], "victim_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "container_countries": [ "Netherlands", "Germany", "France", "United Kingdom" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "yamnaya-steppe", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After about 2500 BCE, migrants associated with Bell Beaker material culture replaced most sampled Neolithic ancestry in Britain. This island-specific turnover is one of the clearest demographic changes in the larger steppe-ancestry story and must not be mapped as a direct Yamnaya march.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Britain's roughly ninety-percent ancestry turnover occurred through Bell Beaker-associated migrants centuries after Yamnaya, while Iberian Beaker adoption had a different demographic history.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After about 2500 BCE, migrants associated with Bell Beaker material culture replaced most sampled Neolithic ancestry in Britain. This island-specific turnover is one of the clearest demographic changes in the larger steppe-ancestry story and must not be mapped as a direct Yamnaya march.", "sources": [ { "id": "steppe_olalde", "title": "Olalde et al. 2018, The Beaker phenomenon (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25738" }, { "id": "steppe_haak", "title": "Haak et al. 2015 (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14317" } ], "rendered_case_id": "prehistory-beaker-britain-ancestry-turnover", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6766902077, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 32.3309792253 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.504595982, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 49.540401804 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 66.664591163, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3253797195, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.691305975, "unknown_bound_high": 89.1533340223 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 73.2740976951, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4723905397, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.6139905575, "unknown_bound_high": 87.3749365857 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 96.2125086491, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6835158987, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 65.7627793178, "unknown_bound_high": 97.4111894454 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-west-slavic-settlement-central-europe", "name": "West Slavic settlement of central Europe", "start": 500, "end": 750, "date_label": "c. 500–750 CE", "region": "Central Europe", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Slavic-speaking farming communities moving into the Elbe, Oder, and upper Danube regions" ], "victims": [ "Post-Roman and Germanic-period populations who had remained or moved through the region" ], "agent_countries": [ "Poland", "Ukraine", "Belarus" ], "victim_countries": [ "Poland", "Germany", "Czechia", "Slovakia", "Austria" ], "container_countries": [ "Poland", "Ukraine", "Belarus", "Germany", "Czechia", "Slovakia", "Austria" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "slavic-expansion", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Slavic-speaking populations expanded westward into landscapes reshaped by late Roman and Migration Period movement. Ancient DNA indicates large ancestry change in several northern areas, although continuity and mixture varied by locality.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "West Slavic settlement and ancestry change in central Europe are not interchangeable with East Slavic consolidation or the more admixed Balkan migrations.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Slavic-speaking populations expanded westward into landscapes reshaped by late Roman and Migration Period movement. Ancient DNA indicates large ancestry change in several northern areas, although continuity and mixture varied by locality.", "sources": [ { "id": "slavic_gretzinger", "title": "Gretzinger et al. 2025 (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09437-6" }, { "id": "slavic_curta", "title": "Curta 2001, The Making of the Slavs", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511496295" } ], "rendered_case_id": "eu-west-slavic-settlement-central-europe", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 6.8340208795, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.3140401948, "unknown_bound_high": 13.9227480685 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 85.617430903, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.617430903, "unknown_bound_high": 85.617430903 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 68.3401378308, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.3401378308, "unknown_bound_high": 68.3401378308 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 12.8059490456, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2369025307, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 79.3435086646 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 95.007847318, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 95.007847318, "unknown_bound_high": 95.007847318 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-east-slavic-expansion-state-formation", "name": "East Slavic expansion and incorporation of forest-zone peoples", "start": 500, "end": 1100, "date_label": "c. 500–1100 CE", "region": "Eastern Europe", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "East Slavic-speaking farming communities and later Rus' polities" ], "victims": [ "Baltic, Finnic, and other forest-zone communities variably absorbed, tributized, or displaced" ], "agent_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Belarus", "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Belarus", "Russia", "Lithuania", "Latvia", "Estonia", "Finland" ], "container_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Belarus", "Russia", "Lithuania", "Latvia", "Estonia", "Finland" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "slavic-expansion", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Slavic-speaking agricultural communities and later Rus' political networks expanded through eastern Europe's forest and river zones. Language replacement and settlement are clear, but local mechanisms ranged from mixture and tribute to displacement and cannot be shown by one uniform arrow.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas collapses centuries of eastward farmer settlement, tribute, urban state formation, and assimilation into the same event as sixth-century Balkan migration.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Slavic-speaking agricultural communities and later Rus' political networks expanded through eastern Europe's forest and river zones. Language replacement and settlement are clear, but local mechanisms ranged from mixture and tribute to displacement and cannot be shown by one uniform arrow.", "sources": [ { "id": "slavic_gretzinger", "title": "Gretzinger et al. 2025 (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09437-6" }, { "id": "slavic_curta", "title": "Curta 2001, The Making of the Slavs", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511496295" } ], "rendered_case_id": "eu-east-slavic-expansion-state-formation", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 20.6384045375, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.6384045375, "unknown_bound_high": 20.6384045375 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 19.7974623941, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.7974623941, "unknown_bound_high": 19.7974623941 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.8787752618, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8921511443, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.832545329, "unknown_bound_high": 85.617430903 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 28.7521399373, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.0140327413, "unknown_bound_high": 35.5371750256 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 43.6384444382, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3730735329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.2803486359, "unknown_bound_high": 78.9729953481 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 87.5389011808, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5389011808, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5389011808 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "eu-south-slavic-balkan-settlement", "name": "South Slavic settlement of the Balkans", "start": 550, "end": 800, "date_label": "c. 550–800 CE", "region": "Southeastern Europe", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Slavic-speaking groups settling south of the Danube, sometimes in alliance with Avar forces" ], "victims": [ "Late Roman Balkan populations subjected to warfare, rural settlement change, flight, and later incorporation" ], "agent_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Poland", "Romania" ], "victim_countries": [ "Slovenia", "Croatia", "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "Serbia", "Montenegro", "Kosovo", "North Macedonia", "Bulgaria", "Romania", "Albania", "Greece" ], "container_countries": [ "Ukraine", "Poland", "Romania", "Slovenia", "Croatia", "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "Serbia", "Montenegro", "Kosovo", "North Macedonia", "Bulgaria", "Albania", "Greece" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "slavic-expansion", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Slavic-speaking settlers crossed the Danube and transformed much of the rural Balkans after repeated war and weakening imperial control. Large-scale migration occurred, but surviving and incoming populations mixed extensively and outcomes differed from province to province.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Balkan settlement involved Avar warfare, imperial retreat, urban survival, and extensive mixture; northern ancestry-replacement estimates cannot simply be transferred south.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Slavic-speaking settlers crossed the Danube and transformed much of the rural Balkans after repeated war and weakening imperial control. Large-scale migration occurred, but surviving and incoming populations mixed extensively and outcomes differed from province to province.", "sources": [ { "id": "slavic_curta", "title": "Curta 2001, The Making of the Slavs", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511496295" }, { "id": "slavic_gretzinger", "title": "Gretzinger et al. 2025 (Nature)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09437-6" } ], "rendered_case_id": "eu-south-slavic-balkan-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 9.858925234, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.858925234, "unknown_bound_high": 9.858925234 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.5127688974, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.7128830226, "unknown_bound_high": 17.3215908963 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 70.3069982035, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.3069982035, "unknown_bound_high": 70.3069982035 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 48.4703730064, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.4703730064, "unknown_bound_high": 48.4703730064 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 53.2198021274, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.2198021274, "unknown_bound_high": 53.2198021274 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75.9342531787, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.9342531787, "unknown_bound_high": 75.9342531787 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "med-phoenician-trading-enclaves", "name": "Phoenician trading settlements in the central and western Mediterranean", "start": -900, "end": -650, "date_label": "c. 900–650 BCE", "region": "Mediterranean", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Levantine seafaring and merchant communities conventionally called Phoenician" ], "victims": [ "Local coastal communities whose ports and land were incorporated into new enclaves, often through negotiated coexistence rather than documented expulsion" ], "agent_countries": [ "Lebanon", "Syria", "Israel" ], "victim_countries": [ "Cyprus", "Tunisia", "Algeria", "Morocco", "Spain", "Portugal", "Italy", "Malta" ], "container_countries": [ "Lebanon", "Syria", "Israel", "Cyprus", "Tunisia", "Algeria", "Morocco", "Spain", "Portugal", "Italy", "Malta" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "phoenician-punic", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Levantine settlers established ports and island enclaves across the Mediterranean. Permanent migration and landholding are clear, but many early sites were commercial nodes embedded among local societies; displacement cannot be presumed uniformly.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Early commercial enclaves are bundled with later Carthaginian territorial empire, causing trade settlement to be displayed as uniform land seizure.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Levantine settlers established ports and island enclaves across the Mediterranean. Permanent migration and landholding are clear, but many early sites were commercial nodes embedded among local societies; displacement cannot be presumed uniformly.", "sources": [ { "id": "phoenician_quinn", "title": "Quinn 2018, In Search of the Phoenicians", "url": "https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691175270/in-search-of-the-phoenicians" }, { "id": "phoenician_suarez", "title": "Suárez-Padilla et al. 2021 (Antiquity)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.15184/aqy.2021.105" } ], "rendered_case_id": "med-phoenician-trading-enclaves", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 36.1940549872, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.1940549872, "unknown_bound_high": 36.1940549872 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 42.2645713616, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.2645713616, "unknown_bound_high": 42.2645713616 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 54.4552370517, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.4552370517, "unknown_bound_high": 54.4552370517 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.4747405381, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.4747405381, "unknown_bound_high": 26.4747405381 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 8.8113647991, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.8113647991, "unknown_bound_high": 8.8113647991 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.4137907921, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.4137907921, "unknown_bound_high": 59.4137907921 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "med-carthage-north-african-settlement", "name": "Carthaginian settlement and agrarian expansion in North Africa", "start": -800, "end": -146, "date_label": "c. 800–146 BCE", "region": "North Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Carthaginian/Punic state, landholders, and settlers" ], "victims": [ "Libyan and Amazigh communities incorporated into tributary and agrarian systems" ], "agent_countries": [ "Tunisia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Tunisia", "Algeria", "Libya" ], "container_countries": [ "Tunisia", "Algeria", "Libya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "phoenician-punic", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Carthage developed from a colonial settlement into a territorial power with extensive North African agriculture, tribute, and military control. Punic and local populations mixed, while Libyan communities also bore unequal land and fiscal burdens.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Carthage's territorial and agrarian power in North Africa had different institutions and land consequences from the earlier string of Levantine trading ports.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Carthage developed from a colonial settlement into a territorial power with extensive North African agriculture, tribute, and military control. Punic and local populations mixed, while Libyan communities also bore unequal land and fiscal burdens.", "sources": [ { "id": "phoenician_quinn", "title": "Quinn 2018, In Search of the Phoenicians", "url": "https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691175270/in-search-of-the-phoenicians" }, { "id": "phoenician_suarez", "title": "Suárez-Padilla et al. 2021 (Antiquity)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.15184/aqy.2021.105" } ], "rendered_case_id": "med-carthage-north-african-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 49.3313757877, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.3313757877, "unknown_bound_high": 49.3313757877 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 50.7386949897, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.7386949897, "unknown_bound_high": 50.7386949897 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 63.2309063859, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.2309063859, "unknown_bound_high": 63.2309063859 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 6.9030757348, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.9030757348, "unknown_bound_high": 6.9030757348 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 38.8534325998, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.8534325998, "unknown_bound_high": 38.8534325998 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 58.9588786133, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.9588786133, "unknown_bound_high": 58.9588786133 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "med-carthaginian-western-islands-iberia", "name": "Carthaginian territorial colonization in Iberia and the western Mediterranean islands", "start": -600, "end": -201, "date_label": "c. 600–201 BCE", "region": "Western Mediterranean", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Carthaginian state, armies, merchants, and Punic settlers" ], "victims": [ "Iberian, Tartessian, Nuragic Sardinian, Sicel, and other local communities subjected to fortified settlement, extraction, and conquest" ], "agent_countries": [ "Tunisia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Spain", "Portugal", "Italy", "Malta" ], "container_countries": [ "Tunisia", "Spain", "Portugal", "Italy", "Malta" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "phoenician-punic", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Carthage expanded its control over strategic islands and southern Iberia through garrisons, colonial towns, alliances, and warfare. The depth of local dispossession varied, so individual theaters require different map treatment.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Later Carthaginian military-territorial expansion in Iberia, Sardinia, and Sicily is analytically different from early Phoenician commercial settlement.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Carthage expanded its control over strategic islands and southern Iberia through garrisons, colonial towns, alliances, and warfare. The depth of local dispossession varied, so individual theaters require different map treatment.", "sources": [ { "id": "phoenician_quinn", "title": "Quinn 2018, In Search of the Phoenicians", "url": "https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691175270/in-search-of-the-phoenicians" }, { "id": "phoenician_suarez", "title": "Suárez-Padilla et al. 2021 (Antiquity)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.15184/aqy.2021.105" } ], "rendered_case_id": "med-carthaginian-western-islands-iberia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 61.1078091667, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.1078091667, "unknown_bound_high": 61.1078091667 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 45.9731509487, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.9731509487, "unknown_bound_high": 45.9731509487 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 55.788218074, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.788218074, "unknown_bound_high": 55.788218074 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 14.9707440644, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.9707440644, "unknown_bound_high": 14.9707440644 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.0716672634, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.0716672634, "unknown_bound_high": 42.0716672634 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.5372405032, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.5372405032, "unknown_bound_high": 54.5372405032 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "med-greek-black-sea-colonies", "name": "Greek settlement around the Black Sea", "start": -700, "end": -450, "date_label": "c. 700–450 BCE", "region": "Black Sea", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Settlers from Miletos, Megara, and other Greek poleis" ], "victims": [ "Thracian, Scythian, Colchian, Taurian, and other coastal and hinterland communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "Greece", "Turkey" ], "victim_countries": [ "Turkey", "Bulgaria", "Romania", "Moldova", "Ukraine", "Russia", "Georgia" ], "container_countries": [ "Greece", "Turkey", "Bulgaria", "Romania", "Moldova", "Ukraine", "Russia", "Georgia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "greek-colonization", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Greek settlers founded independent ports around the Black Sea and drew nearby land and trade into their economies. Some settlements acquired substantial territory; others remained coastal enclaves dependent on negotiated relationships with local powers.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Black Sea ports depended on local trade, grain hinterlands, and varied frontier relations that the Mediterranean-wide wrapper erases.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Greek settlers founded independent ports around the Black Sea and drew nearby land and trade into their economies. Some settlements acquired substantial territory; others remained coastal enclaves dependent on negotiated relationships with local powers.", "sources": [ { "id": "greek_colonization", "title": "Antonaccio 2017", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/sea-in-history-the-ancient-world/greek-colonization-connectivity-and-the-middle-sea/17DE82B554CAFC7E8605FF58A958F4D3" }, { "id": "greek_territory", "title": "Malkin 2024", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009466073" } ], "rendered_case_id": "med-greek-black-sea-colonies", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 44.1931684298, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.1931684298, "unknown_bound_high": 44.1931684298 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 54.2021636839, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.2021636839, "unknown_bound_high": 54.2021636839 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 54.4552370517, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.4552370517, "unknown_bound_high": 54.4552370517 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 38.0219191056, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.0219191056, "unknown_bound_high": 38.0219191056 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.5820174609, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 22.242424624, "unknown_bound_high": 57.9245326758 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 55.3906823408, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.3906823408, "unknown_bound_high": 55.3906823408 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "med-greek-cyrene-colonization", "name": "Theran Greek colonization of Cyrenaica", "start": -630, "end": -440, "date_label": "c. 630–440 BCE", "region": "North Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Greek settlers from Thera and later migrants to Cyrene and neighboring cities" ], "victims": [ "Libyan communities whose land and political relations were transformed by the Cyrenaican settlements" ], "agent_countries": [ "Greece" ], "victim_countries": [ "Libya" ], "container_countries": [ "Greece", "Libya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "greek-colonization", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Settlers from Thera founded Cyrene and expanded into an agrarian city network in eastern Libya. Written and archaeological evidence records both conflict over land and durable interaction with Libyan communities.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Cyrene's territorial expansion among Libyan populations is a specific colonization history, not a generic point on a Greek maritime network.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Settlers from Thera founded Cyrene and expanded into an agrarian city network in eastern Libya. Written and archaeological evidence records both conflict over land and durable interaction with Libyan communities.", "sources": [ { "id": "greek_colonization", "title": "Antonaccio 2017", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/sea-in-history-the-ancient-world/greek-colonization-connectivity-and-the-middle-sea/17DE82B554CAFC7E8605FF58A958F4D3" }, { "id": "greek_territory", "title": "Malkin 2024", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009466073" } ], "rendered_case_id": "med-greek-cyrene-colonization", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 44.1931684298, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.1931684298, "unknown_bound_high": 44.1931684298 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 58.5573314959, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.5573314959, "unknown_bound_high": 58.5573314959 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.00917161, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.00917161, "unknown_bound_high": 59.00917161 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 40.4027046767, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.4027046767, "unknown_bound_high": 40.4027046767 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.3707439374, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5018029194, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.2761863613, "unknown_bound_high": 75.0958944191 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 63.2409980743, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.2409980743, "unknown_bound_high": 63.2409980743 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "med-greek-western-emporia-massalia", "name": "Greek colonial ports in southern Gaul and eastern Iberia", "start": -600, "end": -450, "date_label": "c. 600–450 BCE", "region": "Western Mediterranean", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Phocaean and other Greek settlers centered on Massalia and Emporion" ], "victims": [ "Ligurian, Iberian, and other local communities incorporated into new port and exchange systems" ], "agent_countries": [ "Greece", "Turkey" ], "victim_countries": [ "France", "Monaco", "Spain" ], "container_countries": [ "Greece", "Turkey", "France", "Monaco", "Spain" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "greek-colonization", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Phocaean settlers established Massalia, Emporion, and related ports. Their settlement permanently changed coastal landholding and trade, but broad claims of Indigenous expulsion exceed the evidence for many sites.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Western Greek ports were smaller commercial and territorial nodes with different local effects from the large Sicilian settlement zone.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Phocaean settlers established Massalia, Emporion, and related ports. Their settlement permanently changed coastal landholding and trade, but broad claims of Indigenous expulsion exceed the evidence for many sites.", "sources": [ { "id": "greek_colonization", "title": "Antonaccio 2017", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/sea-in-history-the-ancient-world/greek-colonization-connectivity-and-the-middle-sea/17DE82B554CAFC7E8605FF58A958F4D3" }, { "id": "greek_territory", "title": "Malkin 2024", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009466073" } ], "rendered_case_id": "med-greek-western-emporia-massalia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 44.943623499, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.943623499, "unknown_bound_high": 44.943623499 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 50.9272699829, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.9272699829, "unknown_bound_high": 50.9272699829 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 58.6883808133, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.6883808133, "unknown_bound_high": 58.6883808133 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 21.8560622514, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.8560622514, "unknown_bound_high": 21.8560622514 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 20.4832553562, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.4832553562, "unknown_bound_high": 20.4832553562 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 74.5005315962, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.5005315962, "unknown_bound_high": 74.5005315962 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-qin-sichuan-colonization", "name": "Qin conquest and colonization of the Sichuan Basin", "start": -316, "end": -221, "date_label": "316–221 BCE", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Qin state, soldiers, officials, convicts, and farming settlers" ], "victims": [ "Ba and Shu polities and populations subjected to conquest, administrative replacement, and incoming settlement" ], "agent_countries": [ "China" ], "victim_countries": [ "China" ], "container_countries": [ "China" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "qin-han-resettlement", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After conquering Ba and Shu, Qin imposed counties, infrastructure, and colonist settlement that integrated the basin into the expanding state. Political dispossession and durable demographic integration make this a distinct internal-colonization process.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Sichuan was a specific conquered agrarian basin and state-building project, not the same frontier as Lingnan or the Hexi Corridor.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After conquering Ba and Shu, Qin imposed counties, infrastructure, and colonist settlement that integrated the basin into the expanding state. Political dispossession and durable demographic integration make this a distinct internal-colonization process.", "sources": [ { "id": "qin_resettlement", "title": "Barbieri-Low 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/jch.2019.1" }, { "id": "korolkov", "title": "Korolkov & Hein 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/jch.2020.45" } ], "rendered_case_id": "asia-qin-sichuan-colonization", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.3629238962, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.3629238962, "unknown_bound_high": 86.3629238962 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 70.1491171369, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.1491171369, "unknown_bound_high": 70.1491171369 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 65.4666250308, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.4666250308, "unknown_bound_high": 65.4666250308 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 18.8633990813, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.8633990813, "unknown_bound_high": 18.8633990813 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 27.5817258765, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.5817258765, "unknown_bound_high": 27.5817258765 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 79.5759920337, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.5759920337, "unknown_bound_high": 79.5759920337 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-qin-han-lingnan-settlement", "name": "Qin–Han conquest and settler incorporation of Lingnan", "start": -214, "end": 220, "date_label": "214 BCE–220 CE", "region": "Southern China and northern mainland Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Qin and Han armies, officials, exiles, convicts, merchants, and farming households" ], "victims": [ "Baiyue and related southern populations subjected to conquest, commandery rule, migration, and assimilation" ], "agent_countries": [ "China" ], "victim_countries": [ "China", "Vietnam" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Vietnam" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "qin-han-resettlement", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Imperial conquest created southern commanderies and moved military and civilian populations into Lingnan. Local Yue populations survived and mixed with newcomers, but sovereignty, land use, and identity were durably transformed.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Lingnan's southern garrison and migration system is bundled with Sichuan and the northern military frontier.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Imperial conquest created southern commanderies and moved military and civilian populations into Lingnan. Local Yue populations survived and mixed with newcomers, but sovereignty, land use, and identity were durably transformed.", "sources": [ { "id": "qin_resettlement", "title": "Barbieri-Low 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/jch.2019.1" }, { "id": "korolkov", "title": "Korolkov & Hein 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/jch.2020.45" } ], "rendered_case_id": "asia-qin-han-lingnan-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 74.1971400587, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.1971400587, "unknown_bound_high": 74.1971400587 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 68.9168901368, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.9168901368, "unknown_bound_high": 68.9168901368 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 60.6851612163, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.6851612163, "unknown_bound_high": 60.6851612163 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 23.4703730064, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.4703730064, "unknown_bound_high": 23.4703730064 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 55.0851788322, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.0851788322, "unknown_bound_high": 55.0851788322 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 69.8891721964, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.8891721964, "unknown_bound_high": 69.8891721964 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-han-southwest-commandery-settlement", "name": "Han conquest and commandery settlement in the southwest", "start": -135, "end": 220, "date_label": "c. 135 BCE–220 CE", "region": "Southwestern China", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Han imperial armies, officials, migrants, merchants, and agricultural colonists" ], "victims": [ "Dian, Yelang, and other southwestern polities and communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "China" ], "victim_countries": [ "China", "Myanmar", "Laos", "Vietnam" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Myanmar", "Laos", "Vietnam" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "qin-han-resettlement", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Han forces and administrators incorporated southwestern polities into commandery systems accompanied by migration and agricultural settlement. The scale of displacement is less securely measured than political subordination and cultural-demographic change.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The atlas does not distinguish southwestern commandery incorporation and migrant settlement from other Qin–Han frontiers.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Han forces and administrators incorporated southwestern polities into commandery systems accompanied by migration and agricultural settlement. The scale of displacement is less securely measured than political subordination and cultural-demographic change.", "sources": [ { "id": "qin_resettlement", "title": "Barbieri-Low 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/jch.2019.1" }, { "id": "korolkov", "title": "Korolkov & Hein 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/jch.2020.45" } ], "rendered_case_id": "asia-han-southwest-commandery-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.4311495461, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.4311495461, "unknown_bound_high": 81.4311495461 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.2933637335, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.2933637335, "unknown_bound_high": 69.2933637335 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 54.2490953577, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.2490953577, "unknown_bound_high": 54.2490953577 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 13.4528214325, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.4528214325, "unknown_bound_high": 13.4528214325 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7228992979, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 38.4125098388, "unknown_bound_high": 74.0946178905 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 65.6541758856, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.6541758856, "unknown_bound_high": 65.6541758856 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "med-roman-caesarian-augustan-veteran-colonies", "name": "Caesarian and Augustan veteran colonization across the Mediterranean", "start": -49, "end": 100, "date_label": "49 BCE–100 CE", "region": "Mediterranean and Europe", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Roman state, generals, discharged soldiers, and civilian colonists" ], "victims": [ "Provincial and defeated communities whose urban or agrarian land was assigned to colonies and veterans" ], "agent_countries": [ "Italy" ], "victim_countries": [ "Spain", "Portugal", "France", "Belgium", "United Kingdom", "Croatia", "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "Serbia", "North Macedonia", "Greece", "Turkey", "Tunisia", "Algeria", "Morocco", "Libya" ], "container_countries": [ "Italy", "Spain", "Portugal", "France", "Belgium", "United Kingdom", "Croatia", "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "Serbia", "North Macedonia", "Greece", "Turkey", "Tunisia", "Algeria", "Morocco", "Libya" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "roman-colonies", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Caesar, Augustus, and successors settled veterans and civilians in provincial colonies across the Mediterranean and western Europe. Land grants could dispossess local owners, but the balance of new settlement, municipal promotion, and legal relabeling differs sharply by colony.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Late Republican and imperial veteran colonies were a trans-provincial demobilization and control system, not one continuous event with fourth-century-BCE Italian colonies.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Caesar, Augustus, and successors settled veterans and civilians in provincial colonies across the Mediterranean and western Europe. Land grants could dispossess local owners, but the balance of new settlement, municipal promotion, and legal relabeling differs sharply by colony.", "sources": [ { "id": "roman_colonies", "title": "Laurence, Cleary & Sears 2011", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511975882.004" }, { "id": "roman_landscapes", "title": "Stek 2018", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316995495.006" } ], "rendered_case_id": "med-roman-caesarian-augustan-veteran-colonies", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.4789082022, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.4789082022, "unknown_bound_high": 79.4789082022 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 77.9010863811, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.9010863811, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9010863811 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.890286946, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.890286946, "unknown_bound_high": 50.890286946 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 32.6949750968, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.6949750968, "unknown_bound_high": 32.6949750968 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 37.5466404494, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5466404494, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5466404494 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 67.1148932145, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.1148932145, "unknown_bound_high": 67.1148932145 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 } } }, { "event_id": "am-brazil-southern-immigrant-colonization", "name": "Immigrant colonization and Indigenous land seizure in southern Brazil", "start": 1824, "end": 1940, "date_label": "1824–c. 1940", "region": "South America", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Brazilian imperial and republican governments, colonization companies, and German, Italian, Polish, and Luso-Brazilian settlers" ], "victims": [ "Kaingang, Xokleng/Laklãnõ, Guarani, and other Indigenous peoples targeted by land grants, removals, and settler militias" ], "agent_countries": [ "Brazil", "Germany", "Italy", "Poland", "Portugal" ], "victim_countries": [ "Brazil" ], "container_countries": [ "Brazil", "Germany", "Italy", "Poland", "Portugal" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "brazilian-frontiers", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Governments and companies granted Indigenous land to European immigrant colonies in southern Brazil. Armed expeditions and hired bugreiros killed or removed Kaingang and Xokleng communities to open settlement districts.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Southern immigrant colonies and anti-Indigenous bugreiro violence are hidden inside a two-century national frontier label.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Governments and companies granted Indigenous land to European immigrant colonies in southern Brazil. Armed expeditions and hired bugreiros killed or removed Kaingang and Xokleng communities to open settlement districts.", "sources": [ { "id": "latin_america", "title": "Taylor & Lublin 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2021.1999155" }, { "id": "figueiredo_survival", "title": "Survival International 2013 (Figueiredo Report)", "url": "https://www.survivalinternational.org/news/9191" } ], "rendered_case_id": "am-brazil-southern-immigrant-colonization", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 64.2275089271, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.2275089271, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2275089271 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 77.7962361306, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7962361306, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7962361306 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 88.5929602699, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.5929602699, "unknown_bound_high": 88.5929602699 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 64.1788447024, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.1788447024, "unknown_bound_high": 64.1788447024 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 86.9542887502, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.9542887502, "unknown_bound_high": 86.9542887502 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 84.7639546301, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.7639546301, "unknown_bound_high": 84.7639546301 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "am-brazil-march-west-xavante-displacement", "name": "Brazil's March to the West and Xavante territorial invasion", "start": 1937, "end": 1970, "date_label": "1937–c. 1970", "region": "South America", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Brazilian state agencies, expeditionaries, ranchers, missionaries, and incoming settlers" ], "victims": [ "Xavante/A'uwẽ and other central Brazilian Indigenous peoples subjected to contact, epidemic loss, removal, and land seizure" ], "agent_countries": [ "Brazil" ], "victim_countries": [ "Brazil" ], "container_countries": [ "Brazil" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "brazilian-frontiers", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "State expeditions, missions, roads, and ranching opened central Brazil to national settlement. Xavante communities suffered epidemic collapse and coercive relocation as their territory was transferred to outsiders.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Vargas-era March to the West and Xavante removal were a specific state project with documented actors and chronology, not a generic national frontier.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "State expeditions, missions, roads, and ranching opened central Brazil to national settlement. Xavante communities suffered epidemic collapse and coercive relocation as their territory was transferred to outsiders.", "sources": [ { "id": "garfield_xavante", "title": "Garfield 2001", "url": "https://www.dukeupress.edu/indigenous-struggle-at-the-heart-of-brazil" }, { "id": "figueiredo_survival", "title": "Survival International 2013 (Figueiredo Report)", "url": "https://www.survivalinternational.org/news/9191" } ], "rendered_case_id": "am-brazil-march-west-xavante-displacement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 71.2773363677, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.2773363677, "unknown_bound_high": 71.2773363677 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 77.7962361306, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7962361306, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7962361306 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 73.6838639295, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.6838639295, "unknown_bound_high": 73.6838639295 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 76.588886209, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.588886209, "unknown_bound_high": 76.588886209 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 78.4739245476, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.4739245476, "unknown_bound_high": 78.4739245476 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 56.4067377234, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.4067377234, "unknown_bound_high": 56.4067377234 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "am-brazil-amazon-highway-frontier", "name": "Brazilian Amazon highway, ranching, mining, and colonization frontiers", "start": 1964, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1964–present", "region": "Amazonia", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Brazilian military and civilian governments, colonization agencies, ranchers, miners, loggers, agribusiness, and migrant settlers" ], "victims": [ "Yanomami, Kayapó, Awá, Uru-eu-wau-wau, and numerous other Indigenous and traditional communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "Brazil" ], "victim_countries": [ "Brazil", "Venezuela", "Guyana", "Suriname", "French Guiana", "Peru", "Bolivia", "Colombia" ], "container_countries": [ "Brazil", "Venezuela", "Guyana", "Suriname", "French Guiana", "Peru", "Bolivia", "Colombia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "brazilian-frontiers", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Highways, settlement schemes, dams, mining, ranching, and agribusiness moved outsiders into Indigenous and forest-community territories. Violence, disease, land fraud, and ecological destruction continue to displace communities and undermine territorial control across the Brazilian Amazon and connected borderlands.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The military government's Amazon development and the continuing ranching, mining, and agribusiness frontier require their own present-day case and cross-border victim geography.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Highways, settlement schemes, dams, mining, ranching, and agribusiness moved outsiders into Indigenous and forest-community territories. Violence, disease, land fraud, and ecological destruction continue to displace communities and undermine territorial control across the Brazilian Amazon and connected borderlands.", "sources": [ { "id": "figueiredo_survival", "title": "Survival International 2013 (Figueiredo Report)", "url": "https://www.survivalinternational.org/news/9191" }, { "id": "latin_america", "title": "Taylor & Lublin 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2021.1999155" }, { "id": "garfield_xavante", "title": "Garfield 2001", "url": "https://www.dukeupress.edu/indigenous-struggle-at-the-heart-of-brazil" } ], "rendered_case_id": "am-brazil-amazon-highway-frontier", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 68.1855320951, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.1855320951, "unknown_bound_high": 68.1855320951 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 86.7840703609, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.7840703609, "unknown_bound_high": 86.7840703609 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 82.4540972976, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.4540972976, "unknown_bound_high": 82.4540972976 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 63.164811961, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.164811961, "unknown_bound_high": 63.164811961 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 84.2515276094, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.2515276094, "unknown_bound_high": 84.2515276094 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 56.3450421797, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.3450421797, "unknown_bound_high": 56.3450421797 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "am-tupi-atlantic-coast-expansion", "name": "Tupi-speaking expansion along Brazil's Atlantic coast", "start": 500, "end": 1500, "date_label": "c. 500–1500 CE", "region": "South America", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Tupi-speaking agricultural communities expanding from lowland South America" ], "victims": [ "Earlier Atlantic-forest and coastal populations variably displaced, incorporated, or linguistically replaced" ], "agent_countries": [ "Brazil", "Bolivia", "Paraguay" ], "victim_countries": [ "Brazil", "French Guiana" ], "container_countries": [ "Brazil", "Bolivia", "Paraguay", "French Guiana" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "tupi-guarani", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Tupi-speaking farming settlements spread widely along the Atlantic coast before European arrival. Archaeology supports demic expansion, but local displacement, absorption, and cultural transmission cannot be reduced to a single uniform mechanism.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Atlantic-coast Tupi dispersal had a distinct geography and endpoint from Guarani movement through the Paraná–Plata basin.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Tupi-speaking farming settlements spread widely along the Atlantic coast before European arrival. Archaeology supports demic expansion, but local displacement, absorption, and cultural transmission cannot be reduced to a single uniform mechanism.", "sources": [ { "id": "tupi_iriarte", "title": "Iriarte et al. 2017 (The Holocene)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683616678461" }, { "id": "tupi_bonomo", "title": "Bonomo et al. 2015 (Quaternary International)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.10.050" } ], "rendered_case_id": "am-tupi-atlantic-coast-expansion", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.6733948885, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0134616087, "unknown_bound_high": 15.6221694824 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 79.7556947846, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7104501214, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 56.6624430386, "unknown_bound_high": 85.617430903 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.3265255851, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3716611322, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.6428519656, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4767387495 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.4816568979, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.4985832995, "unknown_bound_high": 80.8734974809 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 91.9537830974, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.9537830974, "unknown_bound_high": 91.9537830974 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "am-guarani-parana-plata-expansion", "name": "Guarani expansion through the Paraná–Plata basin", "start": 500, "end": 1600, "date_label": "c. 500–1600 CE", "region": "South America", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Guarani-speaking farming communities" ], "victims": [ "Earlier riverine and lowland populations of the Paraná, Paraguay, Uruguay, and upper Plata systems" ], "agent_countries": [ "Brazil", "Paraguay", "Bolivia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Brazil", "Paraguay", "Argentina", "Uruguay", "Bolivia" ], "container_countries": [ "Brazil", "Paraguay", "Bolivia", "Argentina", "Uruguay" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "tupi-guarani", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Guarani-speaking agricultural villages spread through major southern river systems and established a wide demographic and linguistic zone. Expansion involved migration and community formation; the balance of warfare, incorporation, and coexistence varied.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Guarani river-basin settlement over many centuries is analytically distinct from coastal Tupi expansion and later colonial-era migration.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Guarani-speaking agricultural villages spread through major southern river systems and established a wide demographic and linguistic zone. Expansion involved migration and community formation; the balance of warfare, incorporation, and coexistence varied.", "sources": [ { "id": "tupi_bonomo", "title": "Bonomo et al. 2015 (Quaternary International)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.10.050" }, { "id": "tupi_iriarte", "title": "Iriarte et al. 2017 (The Holocene)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683616678461" } ], "rendered_case_id": "am-guarani-parana-plata-expansion", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.6733948885, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0134616087, "unknown_bound_high": 15.6221694824 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.804990058, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5944436118, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.0617920812, "unknown_bound_high": 85.617430903 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.3265255851, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3716611322, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.6428519656, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4767387495 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.1213504695, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0675234745, "unknown_bound_high": 93.9324765255 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5389011808, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-tai-central-mainland-settlement", "name": "Tai settlement and state formation in the Chao Phraya and Mekong lowlands", "start": 1000, "end": 1450, "date_label": "c. 1000–1450 CE", "region": "Mainland Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Tai- and Lao-speaking wet-rice communities and emerging lowland polities" ], "victims": [ "Mon, Khmer, and other lowland populations subjected to migration, warfare, political subordination, and assimilation" ], "agent_countries": [ "China", "Vietnam", "Laos", "Thailand" ], "victim_countries": [ "Thailand", "Laos", "Cambodia", "Myanmar", "Vietnam" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Vietnam", "Laos", "Thailand", "Cambodia", "Myanmar" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "tai-southward", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Tai- and Lao-speaking communities expanded through irrigated lowlands and formed new polities including Sukhothai, Lan Na, Ayutthaya, and Lan Xang. Mon and Khmer populations were absorbed, subordinated, or pushed from some political centers rather than uniformly replaced.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Chao Phraya and Mekong lowland processes combined migration with formation of separate Thai and Lao states and cannot be one undifferentiated southward arrow.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Tai- and Lao-speaking communities expanded through irrigated lowlands and formed new polities including Sukhothai, Lan Na, Ayutthaya, and Lan Xang. Mon and Khmer populations were absorbed, subordinated, or pushed from some political centers rather than uniformly replaced.", "sources": [ { "id": "tai_oconnor", "title": "O’Connor 1995 (Journal of Asian Studies)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.2307/2059957" }, { "id": "tai_wyatt", "title": "Wyatt 1984, Thailand: A Short History", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Wyatt+Thailand+A+Short+History" } ], "rendered_case_id": "asia-tai-central-mainland-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 19.8047911161, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.8047911161, "unknown_bound_high": 19.8047911161 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 38.8144072368, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.8144072368, "unknown_bound_high": 38.8144072368 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.3624279048, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8921511443, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.9896182796, "unknown_bound_high": 71.7745038536 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 14.3925412911, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.0219191056, "unknown_bound_high": 22.5450613899 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 47.9188003707, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.805466382, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.5969827652, "unknown_bound_high": 58.0503445634 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 79.4926842782, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.4926842782, "unknown_bound_high": 79.4926842782 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-shan-tai-western-mainland-settlement", "name": "Shan and other Tai settlement in the western mainland uplands", "start": 1000, "end": 1500, "date_label": "c. 1000–1500 CE", "region": "Mainland Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Shan and other Tai-speaking migrant communities and principalities" ], "victims": [ "Mon, Burman, Tibeto-Burman, and upland populations variably subordinated, absorbed, or displaced" ], "agent_countries": [ "China", "Myanmar", "Thailand" ], "victim_countries": [ "Myanmar", "Thailand", "China", "India" ], "container_countries": [ "China", "Myanmar", "Thailand", "India" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "tai-southward", "recommendation": "expansion analogue", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Tai-speaking groups established Shan principalities across upland valleys west of the Salween and into adjoining regions. The outcome was layered political and linguistic change rather than a single mass replacement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Western Tai/Shan migration and tributary state formation followed different corridors from Lao and central Thai lowland settlement; the existing Ahom case covers only one branch.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Tai-speaking groups established Shan principalities across upland valleys west of the Salween and into adjoining regions. The outcome was layered political and linguistic change rather than a single mass replacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "tai_oconnor", "title": "O’Connor 1995 (Journal of Asian Studies)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.2307/2059957" }, { "id": "tai_wyatt", "title": "Wyatt 1984, Thailand: A Short History", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Wyatt+Thailand+A+Short+History" } ], "rendered_case_id": "asia-shan-tai-western-mainland-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 12.5274938955, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5274938955, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5274938955 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 17.9958570065, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.9958570065, "unknown_bound_high": 17.9958570065 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 71.640925458, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5944436118, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.5864904807, "unknown_bound_high": 83.1421293025 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 19.0199319634, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.2086367801, "unknown_bound_high": 26.7317790644 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.4816568979, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.4985832995, "unknown_bound_high": 80.8734974809 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 78.0687278687, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.0687278687, "unknown_bound_high": 78.0687278687 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "af-zulu-state-formation-displacement", "name": "Zulu state formation, incorporation, and displacement in southeastern Africa", "start": 1816, "end": 1840, "date_label": "c. 1816–1840", "region": "Southern Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Zulu kingdom and allied or incorporated regiments under Shaka and successors" ], "victims": [ "Ndwandwe, Hlubi, Ngwane, and other northern Nguni chiefdoms broken up, absorbed, or driven into migration" ], "agent_countries": [ "South Africa" ], "victim_countries": [ "South Africa", "Eswatini", "Lesotho", "Mozambique" ], "container_countries": [ "South Africa", "Eswatini", "Lesotho", "Mozambique" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "mfecane", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Zulu state formation used warfare and regimental incorporation to consolidate southeastern African chiefdoms and helped propel defeated groups outward. It was one cause within a wider upheaval, not a sufficient explanation for every regional displacement attributed to the Mfecane.", "disputes": "Historians dispute the causal weight of Zulu expansion relative to drought, trade, colonial slave raiding, and later settler narratives that portrayed land as emptied. The map must not reproduce the 'vacant land' alibi.", "omission_or_category_error": "The contested Mfecane label combines Zulu state formation with refugee migrations, slave raiding, drought, trade, and secondary conquests over a vast region.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Zulu state formation used warfare and regimental incorporation to consolidate southeastern African chiefdoms and helped propel defeated groups outward. It was one cause within a wider upheaval, not a sufficient explanation for every regional displacement attributed to the Mfecane.", "sources": [ { "id": "omer_cooper", "title": "Omer-Cooper 1966, The Zulu Aftermath", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Omer-Cooper+The+Zulu+Aftermath" }, { "id": "cobbing_mfecane", "title": "Cobbing 1988, The Mfecane as Alibi (J. African History)", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Cobbing+Mfecane+as+Alibi" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-zulu-state-formation-displacement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 82.3163766634, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.3163766634, "unknown_bound_high": 82.3163766634 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 17.793101452, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.793101452, "unknown_bound_high": 17.793101452 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 66.3051332595, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.3051332595, "unknown_bound_high": 66.3051332595 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.9605293204, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.9605293204, "unknown_bound_high": 26.9605293204 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 57.7537094443, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.7537094443, "unknown_bound_high": 57.7537094443 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 70.7467756418, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.7467756418, "unknown_bound_high": 70.7467756418 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-highveld-difaqane-refugee-state-formation", "name": "Highveld Difaqane warfare, refuge, and state formation", "start": 1810, "end": 1840, "date_label": "c. 1810–1840", "region": "Southern Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Multiple Sotho-Tswana, Nguni, Griqua, Kora, and raiding formations in changing alliances" ], "victims": [ "Highveld communities subjected to raiding, captive-taking, flight, aggregation, and territorial reorganization" ], "agent_countries": [ "South Africa", "Lesotho", "Botswana" ], "victim_countries": [ "South Africa", "Lesotho", "Botswana" ], "container_countries": [ "South Africa", "Lesotho", "Botswana" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "mfecane", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Highveld warfare and raiding caused flight, fortified aggregation, captive-taking, and new states such as Moshoeshoe's Basotho polity. The same period was later used by settler historians to claim empty land, making causal and cartographic precision essential.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Highveld displacement cannot be mapped as a single outward shock from the Zulu kingdom; multiple local and colonial-linked actors created simultaneous refuge and conquest processes.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Highveld warfare and raiding caused flight, fortified aggregation, captive-taking, and new states such as Moshoeshoe's Basotho polity. The same period was later used by settler historians to claim empty land, making causal and cartographic precision essential.", "sources": [ { "id": "cobbing_mfecane", "title": "Cobbing 1988, The Mfecane as Alibi (J. African History)", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Cobbing+Mfecane+as+Alibi" }, { "id": "omer_cooper", "title": "Omer-Cooper 1966, The Zulu Aftermath", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Omer-Cooper+The+Zulu+Aftermath" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 27.5459986878, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.5459986878, "unknown_bound_high": 27.5459986878 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 15.4761093423, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.4761093423, "unknown_bound_high": 15.4761093423 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 71.8080934504, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.8080934504, "unknown_bound_high": 71.8080934504 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 32.6474120791, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.6474120791, "unknown_bound_high": 32.6474120791 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 71.9678057266, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.9678057266, "unknown_bound_high": 71.9678057266 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 41.2324791519, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.2324791519, "unknown_bound_high": 41.2324791519 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-ngoni-tanzania-conquests", "name": "Ngoni settlement and conquest in southern Tanzania", "start": 1840, "end": 1900, "date_label": "c. 1840–1900", "region": "Eastern Africa", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Ngoni groups moving north under Zwangendaba's successors and related leaders" ], "victims": [ "Bena, Hehe, Sangu, Nyamwezi, and other communities affected by Ngoni raiding, settlement, and military imitation" ], "agent_countries": [ "South Africa", "Eswatini", "Mozambique", "Malawi", "Zambia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Tanzania", "Malawi", "Zambia" ], "container_countries": [ "South Africa", "Eswatini", "Mozambique", "Malawi", "Zambia", "Tanzania" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "ngoni-migrations", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Ngoni groups and incorporated followers moved into southern Tanzania, founded settlements, raided for cattle and captives, and reshaped regional military politics. This northern phase cannot be treated as the same local event as Ngoni state formation around Malawi.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Tanzanian Ngoni settlements and conflicts followed later northern routes and interacted with different regional states than the Malawi-Zambia branches.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Ngoni groups and incorporated followers moved into southern Tanzania, founded settlements, raided for cattle and captives, and reshaped regional military politics. This northern phase cannot be treated as the same local event as Ngoni state formation around Malawi.", "sources": [ { "id": "barnes_ngoni", "title": "Barnes 1954, Politics in a Changing Society (Ngoni)", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Barnes+Politics+in+a+Changing+Society+Ngoni" }, { "id": "omer_cooper", "title": "Omer-Cooper 1966, The Zulu Aftermath", "url": "https://search.worldcat.org/search?q=Omer-Cooper+The+Zulu+Aftermath" } ], "rendered_case_id": "af-ngoni-tanzania-conquests", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 16.6833610322, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.6833610322, "unknown_bound_high": 16.6833610322 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 11.5647742006, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.5647742006, "unknown_bound_high": 11.5647742006 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 61.1747109514, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.1747109514, "unknown_bound_high": 61.1747109514 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 17.3886585432, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.3886585432, "unknown_bound_high": 17.3886585432 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.5128787121, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.5128787121, "unknown_bound_high": 59.5128787121 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 70.2203114917, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.2203114917, "unknown_bound_high": 70.2203114917 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-egypt-middle-kingdom-lower-nubia", "name": "Middle Kingdom fortress colonization of Lower Nubia", "start": -2050, "end": -1650, "date_label": "c. 2050–1650 BCE", "region": "Lower Nubia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Middle Kingdom Egyptian crown, garrisons, administrators, artisans, and attached households" ], "victims": [ "Lower Nubian C-Group communities subjected to fortification, extraction, and constrained movement" ], "agent_countries": [ "Egypt" ], "victim_countries": [ "Sudan", "Egypt" ], "container_countries": [ "Egypt", "Sudan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "egyptian-colonization-nubia", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Egypt established a chain of fortified colonial installations in Lower Nubia to control movement, trade, and resources, with garrison and administrative communities occupying strategic sites.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Middle Kingdom's Lower Nubian fortress system was a distinct first phase, not a continuous thousand-year Egyptian occupation.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Egypt established a chain of fortified colonial installations in Lower Nubia to control movement, trade, and resources, with garrison and administrative communities occupying strategic sites.", "sources": [ { "id": "egypt_nubia", "title": "Bestock 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190496272.013.15" }, { "id": "egypt_nubia_mixture", "title": "Buzon 2008", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/030751330809400106" } ], "rendered_case_id": "ancient-egypt-middle-kingdom-lower-nubia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.5952452414, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.5952452414, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5952452414 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 44.5833767354, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.5833767354, "unknown_bound_high": 44.5833767354 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 43.8546511005, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.8546511005, "unknown_bound_high": 43.8546511005 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 21.8560622514, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.8560622514, "unknown_bound_high": 21.8560622514 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 40.4265614775, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.4265614775, "unknown_bound_high": 40.4265614775 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 19.7535730178, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.7535730178, "unknown_bound_high": 19.7535730178 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-egypt-new-kingdom-nubia", "name": "New Kingdom conquest and colonial settlement of Nubia", "start": -1550, "end": -1070, "date_label": "c. 1550–1070 BCE", "region": "Lower and Upper Nubia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "New Kingdom Egyptian armies, viceroys, temple institutions, officials, soldiers, and households" ], "victims": [ "Kerma/Kushite and other Nubian populations incorporated into Egyptian imperial administration" ], "agent_countries": [ "Egypt" ], "victim_countries": [ "Sudan" ], "container_countries": [ "Egypt", "Sudan" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "egyptian-colonization-nubia", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "New Kingdom rulers conquered far into Nubia and built towns, temples, administrative centers, and military installations staffed partly by migrants while also incorporating Nubian elites and communities.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "New Kingdom reconquest after the rise of Kerma created a new and farther-reaching imperial settlement system.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "New Kingdom rulers conquered far into Nubia and built towns, temples, administrative centers, and military installations staffed partly by migrants while also incorporating Nubian elites and communities.", "sources": [ { "id": "egypt_nubia", "title": "Bestock 2021", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190496272.013.15" }, { "id": "egypt_nubia_mixture", "title": "Buzon 2008", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/030751330809400106" } ], "rendered_case_id": "ancient-egypt-new-kingdom-nubia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 78.0203543741, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.0203543741, "unknown_bound_high": 78.0203543741 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 51.3624803896, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.3624803896, "unknown_bound_high": 51.3624803896 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 48.3971766731, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.3971766731, "unknown_bound_high": 48.3971766731 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 10.78402639, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.78402639, "unknown_bound_high": 10.78402639 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 43.2758502884, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.2758502884, "unknown_bound_high": 43.2758502884 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 24.7457256998, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.7457256998, "unknown_bound_high": 24.7457256998 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-seljuk-turkmen-anatolia", "name": "Seljuk conquest and Oghuz–Turkmen settlement in Anatolia", "start": 1040, "end": 1204, "date_label": "c. 1040–1204", "region": "Anatolia and the Armenian Highlands", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Seljuk armies and Oghuz–Turkmen pastoral and military communities" ], "victims": [ "Byzantine Greek, Armenian, Syriac Christian, and other established populations subjected to war, flight, tribute, or incorporation" ], "agent_countries": [ "Turkey", "Turkmenistan", "Azerbaijan" ], "victim_countries": [ "Turkey", "Armenia", "Georgia" ], "container_countries": [ "Turkey", "Armenia", "Georgia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "turkic-anatolia", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Seljuk victory and recurring Turkmen migration established new pastoral, military, and urban communities across Anatolia amid Byzantine contraction, warfare, population flight, and substantial local continuity.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The first Seljuk and Turkmen settlement phase must be separated from post-1204 and Ottoman-era political consolidation.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Seljuk victory and recurring Turkmen migration established new pastoral, military, and urban communities across Anatolia amid Byzantine contraction, warfare, population flight, and substantial local continuity.", "sources": [ { "id": "anatolia_beihammer", "title": "Beihammer 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/Byzantium-and-the-Emergence-of-Muslim-Turkish-Anatolia-ca-1040-1130/Beihammer/p/book/9780367884482" }, { "id": "anatolia_genetics", "title": "Lazaridis et al. 2022 (Science)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abq0755" }, { "id": "anatolia_islamization", "title": "Peacock 2019", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108582124" } ], "rendered_case_id": "medieval-seljuk-turkmen-anatolia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 25.2301016287, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.2301016287, "unknown_bound_high": 25.2301016287 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 41.5707931046, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.5707931046, "unknown_bound_high": 41.5707931046 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 54.774472214, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.774472214, "unknown_bound_high": 54.774472214 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 20.3813217133, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.3813217133, "unknown_bound_high": 20.3813217133 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.0019460326, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.805466382, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.2748865647, "unknown_bound_high": 59.7282483629 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 80.7310810058, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.7310810058, "unknown_bound_high": 80.7310810058 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-spanish-hispaniola-conquest-settlement", "name": "Spanish conquest and settlement of Hispaniola", "start": 1492, "end": 1550, "date_label": "1492–c. 1550", "region": "Caribbean", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Castilian settlers, royal officials, encomenderos, and military expeditions" ], "victims": [ "Taíno communities of Ayiti/Quisqueya subjected to war, forced labor, dispossession, disease, and enslavement" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "Haiti", "Dominican Republic" ], "container_countries": [ "Spain", "Haiti", "Dominican Republic" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "spanish-caribbean", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Spanish colonies seized land and labor across Hispaniola, violently suppressing resistance and building mining and plantation settlements amid catastrophic Indigenous population loss.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Hispaniola was the first and administratively central conquest, with its own cacicazgos, revolts, labor systems, and demographic collapse.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Spanish colonies seized land and labor across Hispaniola, violently suppressing resistance and building mining and plantation settlements amid catastrophic Indigenous population loss.", "sources": [ { "id": "livi_bacci", "title": "Livi-Bacci 2003 (HAHR)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1215/00182168-83-1-3" }, { "id": "braun_caribbean", "title": "Braun 2023 (Camb. World Hist. of Genocide)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108655989.027" }, { "id": "resendez", "title": "Reséndez 2016, The Other Slavery", "url": "https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/the-other-slavery/9780544947108" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-spanish-hispaniola-conquest-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 68.6999236196, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.6999236196, "unknown_bound_high": 68.6999236196 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 81.3140401948, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.3140401948, "unknown_bound_high": 81.3140401948 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 55.0528784423, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.0528784423, "unknown_bound_high": 55.0528784423 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 50.7079221616, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.7079221616, "unknown_bound_high": 50.7079221616 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 90.358563804, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.358563804, "unknown_bound_high": 90.358563804 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 82.8253811092, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.8253811092, "unknown_bound_high": 82.8253811092 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-spanish-puerto-rico-conquest-settlement", "name": "Spanish conquest and settlement of Borikén/Puerto Rico", "start": 1508, "end": 1550, "date_label": "1508–c. 1550", "region": "Caribbean", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Spanish settlers, encomenderos, military forces, and royal officials" ], "victims": [ "Taíno communities of Borikén subjected to war, forced labor, enslavement, dispossession, and disease" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "Puerto Rico" ], "container_countries": [ "Spain", "Puerto Rico" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "spanish-caribbean", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Spanish settlement beginning under Juan Ponce de León imposed encomienda, mining, and coercive labor, provoking Taíno resistance and producing rapid demographic and territorial transformation.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Puerto Rico had a separate invasion, Taíno rebellion, island labor regime, and colonial settlement history.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Spanish settlement beginning under Juan Ponce de León imposed encomienda, mining, and coercive labor, provoking Taíno resistance and producing rapid demographic and territorial transformation.", "sources": [ { "id": "livi_bacci", "title": "Livi-Bacci 2003 (HAHR)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1215/00182168-83-1-3" }, { "id": "braun_caribbean", "title": "Braun 2023 (Camb. World Hist. of Genocide)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108655989.027" }, { "id": "resendez", "title": "Reséndez 2016, The Other Slavery", "url": "https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/the-other-slavery/9780544947108" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-spanish-puerto-rico-conquest-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 56.3125848768, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.3125848768, "unknown_bound_high": 56.3125848768 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 71.4337234094, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.4337234094, "unknown_bound_high": 71.4337234094 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 60.4350857407, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.4350857407, "unknown_bound_high": 60.4350857407 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 50.995931633, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.995931633, "unknown_bound_high": 50.995931633 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 86.8241638025, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.8241638025, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8241638025 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 69.1466309185, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.1466309185, "unknown_bound_high": 69.1466309185 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-spanish-cuba-conquest-settlement", "name": "Spanish conquest and settlement of Cuba", "start": 1511, "end": 1550, "date_label": "1511–c. 1550", "region": "Caribbean", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Spanish military expeditions, settlers, encomenderos, and town councils" ], "victims": [ "Taíno and other Indigenous Cuban communities subjected to conquest, forced labor, enslavement, dispossession, and disease" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "Cuba" ], "container_countries": [ "Spain", "Cuba" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "spanish-caribbean", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Spanish forces conquered Cuba and founded settler towns while imposing coerced Indigenous labor and appropriating land; survivors resisted, fled, mixed, or were absorbed into colonial society.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Cuba's conquest began almost two decades after Hispaniola and followed its own eastern-to-western campaign and town-building sequence.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Spanish forces conquered Cuba and founded settler towns while imposing coerced Indigenous labor and appropriating land; survivors resisted, fled, mixed, or were absorbed into colonial society.", "sources": [ { "id": "livi_bacci", "title": "Livi-Bacci 2003 (HAHR)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1215/00182168-83-1-3" }, { "id": "braun_caribbean", "title": "Braun 2023 (Camb. World Hist. of Genocide)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108655989.027" }, { "id": "resendez", "title": "Reséndez 2016, The Other Slavery", "url": "https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/the-other-slavery/9780544947108" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-spanish-cuba-conquest-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 55.5886905172, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.5886905172, "unknown_bound_high": 55.5886905172 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.4245652362, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.4245652362, "unknown_bound_high": 69.4245652362 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 61.2850029551, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.2850029551, "unknown_bound_high": 61.2850029551 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 53.0887077327, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.0887077327, "unknown_bound_high": 53.0887077327 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 90.358563804, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.358563804, "unknown_bound_high": 90.358563804 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 82.8253811092, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.8253811092, "unknown_bound_high": 82.8253811092 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-new-france-acadian-settlement", "name": "French and Acadian settlement in Mi'kma'ki", "start": 1604, "end": 1755, "date_label": "1604–1755", "region": "Atlantic Canada", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "French colonial officials and Acadian farming communities" ], "victims": [ "Mi'kmaq and Wəlastəkwewiyik territories subjected to new forts, farms, missions, and imperial claims" ], "agent_countries": [ "France" ], "victim_countries": [ "Canada" ], "container_countries": [ "France", "Canada" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "new-france-settlement", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "French and Acadian communities created durable agricultural settlements in Mi'kma'ki, while alliance, exchange, conflict, and limited settler numbers produced a different pattern from later British replacement settlement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Acadian dyke-land agriculture and relations in Mi'kma'ki were distinct from the St. Lawrence seigneurial corridor.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "French and Acadian communities created durable agricultural settlements in Mi'kma'ki, while alliance, exchange, conflict, and limited settler numbers produced a different pattern from later British replacement settlement.", "sources": [ { "id": "canada_harris", "title": "Harris 2020, A Bounded Land", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/a-bounded-land" }, { "id": "prior", "title": "Prior 2020, Settlers in Indian Country", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108883979" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-new-france-acadian-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 49.7745345039, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.7745345039, "unknown_bound_high": 49.7745345039 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 55.5921745541, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.5921745541, "unknown_bound_high": 55.5921745541 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 80.3117637293, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.3117637293, "unknown_bound_high": 80.3117637293 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 46.4961235016, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.4961235016, "unknown_bound_high": 46.4961235016 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 37.070764003, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.070764003, "unknown_bound_high": 37.070764003 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 57.2259714344, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.2259714344, "unknown_bound_high": 57.2259714344 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-new-france-st-lawrence-settlement", "name": "French seigneurial settlement along the St. Lawrence", "start": 1608, "end": 1763, "date_label": "1608–1763", "region": "St. Lawrence Valley", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "French crown, seigneurs, religious orders, soldiers, and farming families" ], "victims": [ "Innu, Wendat, Haudenosaunee, Abenaki, and other nations whose territories and political relations were transformed" ], "agent_countries": [ "France" ], "victim_countries": [ "Canada", "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "France", "Canada", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "new-france-settlement", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "French colonists established towns and river-lot farms along the St. Lawrence, combining permanent settlement with missionary, military, diplomatic, and fur-trade relations extending far beyond the settled corridor.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Dense farm settlement in the St. Lawrence corridor cannot be equated with Acadia or the alliance-dependent continental fur-trade network.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "French colonists established towns and river-lot farms along the St. Lawrence, combining permanent settlement with missionary, military, diplomatic, and fur-trade relations extending far beyond the settled corridor.", "sources": [ { "id": "canada_harris", "title": "Harris 2020, A Bounded Land", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/a-bounded-land" }, { "id": "prior", "title": "Prior 2020, Settlers in Indian Country", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108883979" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-new-france-st-lawrence-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 64.4870596825, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.4870596825, "unknown_bound_high": 64.4870596825 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 70.0421359321, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.0421359321, "unknown_bound_high": 70.0421359321 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.2747653631, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.2747653631, "unknown_bound_high": 75.2747653631 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 56.513331515, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.513331515, "unknown_bound_high": 56.513331515 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.4697622731, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.4697622731, "unknown_bound_high": 62.4697622731 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 78.5432616481, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.5432616481, "unknown_bound_high": 78.5432616481 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-british-chesapeake-settlement", "name": "English settlement and Powhatan dispossession in the Chesapeake", "start": 1607, "end": 1677, "date_label": "1607–1677", "region": "Chesapeake Bay", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Virginia Company colonists, English tobacco planters, colonial militias, and Crown authorities" ], "victims": [ "Powhatan confederacy communities and other Chesapeake peoples" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "british-atlantic-colonies", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Jamestown and the expanding tobacco economy drove seizure of riverine land, repeated war, disease, forced tribute, and the reduction of Powhatan political autonomy.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The tobacco frontier, Anglo-Powhatan wars, and plantation labor regime formed a distinct Chesapeake process.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Jamestown and the expanding tobacco economy drove seizure of riverine land, repeated war, disease, forced tribute, and the reduction of Powhatan political autonomy.", "sources": [ { "id": "prior", "title": "Prior 2020, Settlers in Indian Country", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108883979" }, { "id": "blackhawk", "title": "Blackhawk 2023, “Centrality of Dispossession”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/centrality-of-dispossession/AFB10A4699800E6126DF0997D3A09026" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-british-chesapeake-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 53.1587689663, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.1587689663, "unknown_bound_high": 53.1587689663 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 76.5421544187, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.5421544187, "unknown_bound_high": 76.5421544187 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 70.8397654865, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.8397654865, "unknown_bound_high": 70.8397654865 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 73.8471036027, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.8471036027, "unknown_bound_high": 73.8471036027 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 76.7900659923, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.7900659923, "unknown_bound_high": 76.7900659923 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 79.7816583757, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.7816583757, "unknown_bound_high": 79.7816583757 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-british-new-england-settlement", "name": "English Puritan settlement and Indigenous dispossession in New England", "start": 1620, "end": 1676, "date_label": "1620–1676", "region": "New England", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Plymouth and Massachusetts Bay colonists, New England towns, and colonial militias" ], "victims": [ "Wampanoag, Pequot, Narragansett, Massachusett, Nipmuc, and other Indigenous nations" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "british-atlantic-colonies", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Large family migration created dense English towns, while land transfer, missionary settlement, disease, and wars broke Indigenous territorial control across much of southern New England.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Town-based Puritan migration after epidemic depopulation and the Pequot and King Philip's wars differed from Chesapeake plantations.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Large family migration created dense English towns, while land transfer, missionary settlement, disease, and wars broke Indigenous territorial control across much of southern New England.", "sources": [ { "id": "prior", "title": "Prior 2020, Settlers in Indian Country", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108883979" }, { "id": "blackhawk", "title": "Blackhawk 2023, “Centrality of Dispossession”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/centrality-of-dispossession/AFB10A4699800E6126DF0997D3A09026" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-british-new-england-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 48.918083395, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.918083395, "unknown_bound_high": 48.918083395 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 70.5213799529, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.5213799529, "unknown_bound_high": 70.5213799529 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 93.1468948282, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.1468948282, "unknown_bound_high": 93.1468948282 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 73.8471036027, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.8471036027, "unknown_bound_high": 73.8471036027 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 71.2811270721, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.2811270721, "unknown_bound_high": 71.2811270721 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 71.1477668388, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.1477668388, "unknown_bound_high": 71.1477668388 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-british-middle-colonies-settlement", "name": "British settlement and Indigenous dispossession in the middle colonies", "start": 1664, "end": 1763, "date_label": "1664–1763", "region": "Mid-Atlantic North America", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "English, Welsh, Scottish, Scots-Irish, German, and other settlers under British colonial governments" ], "victims": [ "Lenape, Susquehannock, Haudenosaunee, and neighboring Indigenous communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Germany", "Netherlands" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Germany", "Netherlands", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "british-atlantic-colonies", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Rapid farm settlement expanded from the Hudson, Delaware, and lower Susquehanna corridors through purchase, fraud, squatting, diplomacy, and war, displacing Indigenous communities westward.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The pluralistic middle-colony land market and Pennsylvania frontier wars require their own chronology and Indigenous geography.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Rapid farm settlement expanded from the Hudson, Delaware, and lower Susquehanna corridors through purchase, fraud, squatting, diplomacy, and war, displacing Indigenous communities westward.", "sources": [ { "id": "prior", "title": "Prior 2020, Settlers in Indian Country", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108883979" }, { "id": "blackhawk", "title": "Blackhawk 2023, “Centrality of Dispossession”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/centrality-of-dispossession/AFB10A4699800E6126DF0997D3A09026" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-british-middle-colonies-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 52.8989442506, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.8989442506, "unknown_bound_high": 52.8989442506 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 77.7962361306, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7962361306, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7962361306 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 84.8295278945, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.8295278945, "unknown_bound_high": 84.8295278945 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 78.0338212771, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.0338212771, "unknown_bound_high": 78.0338212771 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.6147224794, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.6147224794, "unknown_bound_high": 62.6147224794 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 79.7816583757, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.7816583757, "unknown_bound_high": 79.7816583757 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-british-carolinas-georgia-settlement", "name": "British plantation settlement in the Carolinas and Georgia", "start": 1663, "end": 1763, "date_label": "1663–1763", "region": "Southeastern North America", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "English and Barbadian colonists, plantation owners, traders, and colonial militias" ], "victims": [ "Cusabo, Yamasee, Catawba, Cherokee, Muscogee, and other southeastern nations", "Enslaved Africans forced into the plantation system" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Barbados" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Barbados", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "british-atlantic-colonies", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Settlers from England and Barbados established plantation colonies, seized coastal and interior land, and fueled warfare and Indigenous slave trading before expanding through rice and indigo cultivation.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Carolina–Georgia process joined plantation settlement, Indigenous slave trading, and rice cultivation in ways unlike northern mainland colonies.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Settlers from England and Barbados established plantation colonies, seized coastal and interior land, and fueled warfare and Indigenous slave trading before expanding through rice and indigo cultivation.", "sources": [ { "id": "prior", "title": "Prior 2020, Settlers in Indian Country", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108883979" }, { "id": "blackhawk", "title": "Blackhawk 2023, “Centrality of Dispossession”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/centrality-of-dispossession/AFB10A4699800E6126DF0997D3A09026" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-british-carolinas-georgia-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 52.8989442506, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.8989442506, "unknown_bound_high": 52.8989442506 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 83.5091766598, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.5091766598, "unknown_bound_high": 83.5091766598 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.15133794, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.15133794, "unknown_bound_high": 83.15133794 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 56.3992824564, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.3992824564, "unknown_bound_high": 56.3992824564 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 83.083142577, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.083142577, "unknown_bound_high": 83.083142577 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 79.7816583757, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.7816583757, "unknown_bound_high": 79.7816583757 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-british-barbados-leewards-plantation-settlement", "name": "British plantation settlement in Barbados and the Leeward Islands", "start": 1624, "end": 1783, "date_label": "1624–1783", "region": "Eastern Caribbean", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "English settlers, plantation owners, merchants, and colonial governments" ], "victims": [ "Kalinago and other Indigenous island communities", "Enslaved Africans forced into sugar plantation labor" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Barbados", "Saint Kitts and Nevis", "Antigua and Barbuda", "Montserrat", "Anguilla", "British Virgin Islands" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Barbados", "Saint Kitts and Nevis", "Antigua and Barbuda", "Montserrat", "Anguilla", "British Virgin Islands" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "british-atlantic-colonies", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "English colonies seized island land and developed plantation economies in which a small settler class depended on the forced migration and labor of a much larger enslaved African population.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Eastern Caribbean island seizure and the sugar revolution were distinct from mainland family-farm and tobacco frontiers.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "English colonies seized island land and developed plantation economies in which a small settler class depended on the forced migration and labor of a much larger enslaved African population.", "sources": [ { "id": "prior", "title": "Prior 2020, Settlers in Indian Country", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108883979" }, { "id": "blackhawk", "title": "Blackhawk 2023, “Centrality of Dispossession”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/centrality-of-dispossession/AFB10A4699800E6126DF0997D3A09026" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-british-barbados-leewards-plantation-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 55.505532165, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.505532165, "unknown_bound_high": 55.505532165 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 84.4152158536, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.4152158536, "unknown_bound_high": 84.4152158536 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 63.8285477765, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.8285477765, "unknown_bound_high": 63.8285477765 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 81.6754909539, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.6754909539, "unknown_bound_high": 81.6754909539 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 80.0626486345, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.0626486345, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0626486345 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 65.3352981777, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.3352981777, "unknown_bound_high": 65.3352981777 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-british-jamaica-conquest-plantation", "name": "British conquest and plantation colonization of Jamaica", "start": 1655, "end": 1838, "date_label": "1655–1838", "region": "Caribbean", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "British military occupiers, settlers, plantation owners, and colonial officials" ], "victims": [ "Spanish residents expelled after conquest", "Maroons and enslaved Africans resisting or subjected to plantation rule" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Jamaica", "Spain" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Jamaica", "Spain" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "british-atlantic-colonies", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "high", "summary": "British conquest removed Spanish rule and promoted plantation settlement, while the island's demographic transformation depended overwhelmingly on enslaved Africans and persistent Maroon resistance.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Jamaica began with conquest of a Spanish colony and became a slave plantation society, not a simple extension of mainland British settlement.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "British conquest removed Spanish rule and promoted plantation settlement, while the island's demographic transformation depended overwhelmingly on enslaved Africans and persistent Maroon resistance.", "sources": [ { "id": "prior", "title": "Prior 2020, Settlers in Indian Country", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108883979" }, { "id": "blackhawk", "title": "Blackhawk 2023, “Centrality of Dispossession”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/centrality-of-dispossession/AFB10A4699800E6126DF0997D3A09026" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-british-jamaica-conquest-plantation", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 67.0986315435, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.0986315435, "unknown_bound_high": 67.0986315435 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 82.5130388852, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.5130388852, "unknown_bound_high": 82.5130388852 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 52.431838165, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.431838165, "unknown_bound_high": 52.431838165 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 76.6259103403, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.6259103403, "unknown_bound_high": 76.6259103403 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 71.9482755078, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.9482755078, "unknown_bound_high": 71.9482755078 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 60.6614676331, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.6614676331, "unknown_bound_high": 60.6614676331 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-bahamas-turks-post-lucayan-settlement", "name": "British settlement of the depopulated Bahamas and Turks and Caicos", "start": 1648, "end": 1783, "date_label": "1648–1783", "region": "Lucayan Archipelago", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "English and British settlers, including Loyalists after the American Revolution" ], "victims": [ "Lucayan communities previously removed into Spanish slavery before British permanent settlement" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "Bahamas", "Turks and Caicos Islands" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "United States", "Bahamas", "Turks and Caicos Islands" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly classified", "atlas_case_ids": "british-atlantic-colonies | spanish-caribbean", "recommendation": "partial", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Spanish slaving had removed the Lucayan population before durable British colonization; later settlers, including Loyalists with enslaved laborers, established new societies on the depopulated islands. The map distinguishes early settlement on Eleuthera and New Providence from British occupation of Grand Turk in the Turks and Caicos.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "British settlers occupied islands already depopulated by earlier Spanish slave raiding; the removal and later settlement must not be attributed to one actor or one moment.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Spanish slaving had removed the Lucayan population before durable British colonization; later settlers, including Loyalists with enslaved laborers, established new societies on the depopulated islands. The map distinguishes early settlement on Eleuthera and New Providence from British occupation of Grand Turk in the Turks and Caicos.", "sources": [ { "id": "livi_bacci", "title": "Livi-Bacci 2003 (HAHR)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1215/00182168-83-1-3" }, { "id": "resendez", "title": "Reséndez 2016, The Other Slavery", "url": "https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/the-other-slavery/9780544947108" }, { "id": "prior", "title": "Prior 2020, Settlers in Indian Country", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108883979" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-bahamas-turks-post-lucayan-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 58.2002623782, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.2002623782, "unknown_bound_high": 58.2002623782 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 71.4274191467, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.4274191467, "unknown_bound_high": 71.4274191467 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 80.8353223747, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.8353223747, "unknown_bound_high": 80.8353223747 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 86.5100496599, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.5100496599, "unknown_bound_high": 86.5100496599 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 74.8078321346, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.8078321346, "unknown_bound_high": 74.8078321346 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 90.2208759185, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.2208759185, "unknown_bound_high": 90.2208759185 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-loyalist-maritimes-settlement", "name": "Loyalist settlement and Indigenous land loss in the Maritimes", "start": 1783, "end": 1815, "date_label": "1783–1815", "region": "Atlantic Canada", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Loyalist refugees, British colonial authorities, and later British migrants" ], "victims": [ "Mi'kmaq and Wəlastəkwewiyik communities whose territories were granted to incoming settlers", "Black Loyalists subjected to discriminatory grants and later removal" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "United States", "Canada" ], "victim_countries": [ "Canada" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "United States", "Canada" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "british-north-america", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "British authorities settled Loyalists on surveyed grants after the American Revolution, creating New Brunswick and accelerating appropriation of Indigenous lands while distributing land unequally among Loyalists.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Loyalist influx transformed the Maritimes through a distinct refugee-settler and land-grant process.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "British authorities settled Loyalists on surveyed grants after the American Revolution, creating New Brunswick and accelerating appropriation of Indigenous lands while distributing land unequally among Loyalists.", "sources": [ { "id": "canada_harris", "title": "Harris 2020, A Bounded Land", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/a-bounded-land" }, { "id": "canada_rueck", "title": "Rück 2021, The Laws and the Land", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/the-laws-and-the-land" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-loyalist-maritimes-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 61.6451122324, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.6451122324, "unknown_bound_high": 61.6451122324 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 75.5963024344, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.5963024344, "unknown_bound_high": 75.5963024344 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 82.8321027777, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.8321027777, "unknown_bound_high": 82.8321027777 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 68.1424632962, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.1424632962, "unknown_bound_high": 68.1424632962 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 48.4318567469, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.4318567469, "unknown_bound_high": 48.4318567469 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 66.1556141568, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.1556141568, "unknown_bound_high": 66.1556141568 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-loyalist-upper-canada-settlement", "name": "Loyalist settlement and treaty land acquisition in Upper Canada", "start": 1783, "end": 1815, "date_label": "1783–1815", "region": "Great Lakes and St. Lawrence", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Loyalist refugees, British colonial authorities, and survey and land-grant institutions" ], "victims": [ "Anishinaabe, Haudenosaunee, and other nations whose lands were purchased, granted, surveyed, or occupied" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "United States", "Canada" ], "victim_countries": [ "Canada" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "United States", "Canada" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "british-north-america", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "The Crown acquired and surveyed Great Lakes and St. Lawrence lands for Loyalists, creating a new colony and dense agricultural settlement while narrowing Indigenous control.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Upper Canada's survey, treaty, and Loyalist grant system was separate from Maritime settlement.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "The Crown acquired and surveyed Great Lakes and St. Lawrence lands for Loyalists, creating a new colony and dense agricultural settlement while narrowing Indigenous control.", "sources": [ { "id": "canada_harris", "title": "Harris 2020, A Bounded Land", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/a-bounded-land" }, { "id": "canada_rueck", "title": "Rück 2021, The Laws and the Land", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/the-laws-and-the-land" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-loyalist-upper-canada-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 61.6451122324, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.6451122324, "unknown_bound_high": 61.6451122324 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 77.7941051763, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7941051763, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7941051763 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 91.6077721119, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.6077721119, "unknown_bound_high": 91.6077721119 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 65.4736682537, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.4736682537, "unknown_bound_high": 65.4736682537 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 44.3746701835, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.3746701835, "unknown_bound_high": 44.3746701835 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 71.1477668388, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.1477668388, "unknown_bound_high": 71.1477668388 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "atlantic-british-mass-immigration-canadas", "name": "British and Irish mass immigration and agricultural expansion in the Canadas", "start": 1815, "end": 1867, "date_label": "1815–1867", "region": "Eastern Canada", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "British and Irish migrants, colonial land companies, timber interests, and Crown governments" ], "victims": [ "Anishinaabe, Haudenosaunee, Innu, and other Indigenous peoples facing treaty pressure, reserve contraction, and settler encroachment" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Ireland", "Canada" ], "victim_countries": [ "Canada" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Ireland", "Canada" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "british-north-america", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After 1815, mass migration, road and canal building, timber extraction, and agricultural settlement extended colonial occupation across Upper and Lower Canada and the Maritimes.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Post-Napoleonic mass immigration and land-company colonization were a later phase on a larger scale than Loyalist settlement.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After 1815, mass migration, road and canal building, timber extraction, and agricultural settlement extended colonial occupation across Upper and Lower Canada and the Maritimes.", "sources": [ { "id": "canada_harris", "title": "Harris 2020, A Bounded Land", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/a-bounded-land" }, { "id": "canada_rueck", "title": "Rück 2021, The Laws and the Land", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/the-laws-and-the-land" } ], "rendered_case_id": "atlantic-british-mass-immigration-canadas", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 61.684255292, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.684255292, "unknown_bound_high": 61.684255292 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 88.3124400093, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.3124400093, "unknown_bound_high": 88.3124400093 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 81.4529108104, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.4529108104, "unknown_bound_high": 81.4529108104 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.6603859282, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.6603859282, "unknown_bound_high": 69.6603859282 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.564848955, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.564848955, "unknown_bound_high": 58.564848955 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 82.1652876478, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.1652876478, "unknown_bound_high": 82.1652876478 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "us-old-northwest-settlement-dispossession", "name": "United States settlement and dispossession in the Ohio Valley and Old Northwest", "start": 1783, "end": 1832, "date_label": "1783–1832", "region": "Eastern North America", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "United States land offices and armies, territorial governments, land companies, and settler militias" ], "victims": [ "Shawnee, Miami, Delaware/Lenape, Haudenosaunee, Anishinaabe, Ho-Chunk, and other nations" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "united-states-continental-expansion", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Federal surveys and land sales converted Indigenous homelands into settler property after repeated wars and coerced treaties, pushing the frontier from the Ohio Valley through the southern Great Lakes.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The post-Revolutionary Ohio Valley and Old Northwest frontier had its own treaty, survey, war, and land-sale sequence.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Federal surveys and land sales converted Indigenous homelands into settler property after repeated wars and coerced treaties, pushing the frontier from the Ohio Valley through the southern Great Lakes.", "sources": [ { "id": "blackhawk", "title": "Blackhawk 2023, “Centrality of Dispossession”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/centrality-of-dispossession/AFB10A4699800E6126DF0997D3A09026" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "us-old-northwest-settlement-dispossession", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 61.914630881, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.914630881, "unknown_bound_high": 61.914630881 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 87.0568512657, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.0568512657, "unknown_bound_high": 87.0568512657 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 91.2297666319, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.2297666319, "unknown_bound_high": 91.2297666319 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 73.8471036027, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.8471036027, "unknown_bound_high": 73.8471036027 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 60.1173969989, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.1173969989, "unknown_bound_high": 60.1173969989 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 82.1652876478, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.1652876478, "unknown_bound_high": 82.1652876478 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "us-southeast-removal-cotton-frontier", "name": "Southeastern Indian Removal and the United States cotton frontier", "start": 1803, "end": 1840, "date_label": "1803–1840", "region": "Southeastern North America", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "United States and state governments, land speculators, slaveholding settlers, militias, and removal contractors" ], "victims": [ "Cherokee, Muscogee, Choctaw, Chickasaw, Seminole, and other southeastern nations", "Enslaved African Americans forced into the expanding cotton frontier" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "united-states-continental-expansion", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Federal and state authorities extinguished Indigenous title and deported nations west of the Mississippi while settlers and enslaved laborers occupied the ceded land for cotton production.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Treaty coercion and mass deportation from the Southeast directly enabled a slave-settler cotton boom and cannot be reduced to one westward arrow.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Federal and state authorities extinguished Indigenous title and deported nations west of the Mississippi while settlers and enslaved laborers occupied the ceded land for cotton production.", "sources": [ { "id": "blackhawk", "title": "Blackhawk 2023, “Centrality of Dispossession”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/centrality-of-dispossession/AFB10A4699800E6126DF0997D3A09026" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "us-southeast-removal-cotton-frontier", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 64.2330983211, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.2330983211, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2330983211 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 93.7716727486, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.7716727486, "unknown_bound_high": 93.7716727486 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.15133794, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.15133794, "unknown_bound_high": 83.15133794 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 84.9921270279, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.9921270279, "unknown_bound_high": 84.9921270279 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.7144456349, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.7144456349, "unknown_bound_high": 68.7144456349 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 79.7619455205, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.7619455205, "unknown_bound_high": 79.7619455205 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 } } }, { "event_id": "us-great-plains-conquest-homesteading", "name": "United States conquest and homestead settlement of the Great Plains", "start": 1848, "end": 1890, "date_label": "1848–1890", "region": "Great Plains", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "United States armies and agencies, railroad corporations, homesteaders, ranchers, and territorial governments" ], "victims": [ "Lakota, Dakota, Nakota, Cheyenne, Arapaho, Kiowa, Comanche, Pawnee, and other Plains nations" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "united-states-continental-expansion", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Military campaigns and the destruction of bison economies forced Plains nations onto reservations while railroads, ranches, and homesteads transferred land to incoming settlers.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Railroads, bison destruction, reservation confinement, allotment, and farm settlement formed a distinct Plains process.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Military campaigns and the destruction of bison economies forced Plains nations onto reservations while railroads, ranches, and homesteads transferred land to incoming settlers.", "sources": [ { "id": "plains_ostler", "title": "Ostler 2004, The Plains Sioux", "url": "https://assets.cambridge.org/97805217/93469/frontmatter/9780521793469_frontmatter.htm" }, { "id": "blackhawk", "title": "Blackhawk 2023, “Centrality of Dispossession”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/centrality-of-dispossession/AFB10A4699800E6126DF0997D3A09026" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "us-great-plains-conquest-homesteading", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 67.6114694291, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.6114694291, "unknown_bound_high": 67.6114694291 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 93.2348927267, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.2348927267, "unknown_bound_high": 93.2348927267 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.15133794, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.15133794, "unknown_bound_high": 83.15133794 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 76.588886209, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.588886209, "unknown_bound_high": 76.588886209 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 72.7716321983, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.7716321983, "unknown_bound_high": 72.7716321983 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 79.7619455205, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.7619455205, "unknown_bound_high": 79.7619455205 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "us-southwest-conquest-navajo-apache", "name": "United States conquest and settlement of Diné and Apache homelands", "start": 1846, "end": 1886, "date_label": "1846–1886", "region": "Southwestern North America", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "United States armies and territorial governments, miners, ranchers, and agricultural settlers" ], "victims": [ "Diné/Navajo, Apache nations, Pueblo communities, and other Indigenous residents" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States", "Mexico" ], "container_countries": [ "United States", "Mexico" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "united-states-continental-expansion", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After taking the region from Mexico, United States forces imposed campaigns, forced marches, and reservation confinement while mines, ranches, towns, and railroads occupied Indigenous lands.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Southwestern conquest followed annexation from Mexico and included the Long Walk, reservation projects, mining, and cross-border Apache war.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After taking the region from Mexico, United States forces imposed campaigns, forced marches, and reservation confinement while mines, ranches, towns, and railroads occupied Indigenous lands.", "sources": [ { "id": "blackhawk", "title": "Blackhawk 2023, “Centrality of Dispossession”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/centrality-of-dispossession/AFB10A4699800E6126DF0997D3A09026" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "us-southwest-conquest-navajo-apache", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 69.1622582144, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.1622582144, "unknown_bound_high": 69.1622582144 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 88.3124400093, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.3124400093, "unknown_bound_high": 88.3124400093 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 71.6794472122, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.6794472122, "unknown_bound_high": 71.6794472122 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 65.4027046767, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.4027046767, "unknown_bound_high": 65.4027046767 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 77.7102833604, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7102833604, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7102833604 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 71.1996972095, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.1996972095, "unknown_bound_high": 71.1996972095 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "us-california-genocide-settlement", "name": "United States conquest, genocide, and settler occupation of California", "start": 1846, "end": 1873, "date_label": "1846–1873", "region": "California", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "United States and California governments, militias, miners, ranchers, and settlers" ], "victims": [ "California Indigenous nations subjected to massacre, enslavement, land seizure, starvation, and removal" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States", "Mexico" ], "container_countries": [ "United States", "Mexico" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "united-states-continental-expansion", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "United States annexation and the gold rush brought explosive settler migration, state-supported militia campaigns, kidnapping and coerced labor, and near-total loss of Indigenous land.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "California's gold-rush invasion, state-funded killing, Indigenous servitude, and demographic catastrophe were exceptionally rapid and require a separate case.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "United States annexation and the gold rush brought explosive settler migration, state-supported militia campaigns, kidnapping and coerced labor, and near-total loss of Indigenous land.", "sources": [ { "id": "native_california", "title": "Akins & Bauer 2021, We Are the Land", "url": "https://www.ucpress.edu/books/we-are-the-land/hardcover" }, { "id": "blackhawk", "title": "Blackhawk 2023, “Centrality of Dispossession”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/centrality-of-dispossession/AFB10A4699800E6126DF0997D3A09026" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "us-california-genocide-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 60.6448003407, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.6448003407, "unknown_bound_high": 60.6448003407 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 92.8200775854, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.8200775854, "unknown_bound_high": 92.8200775854 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 66.2175877072, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.2175877072, "unknown_bound_high": 66.2175877072 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 75.3767305963, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.3767305963, "unknown_bound_high": 75.3767305963 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 90.358563804, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.358563804, "unknown_bound_high": 90.358563804 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.1731349659, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.1731349659, "unknown_bound_high": 77.1731349659 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "us-alaska-colonial-settlement", "name": "United States colonial incorporation and settlement of Alaska", "start": 1867, "end": 1959, "date_label": "1867–1959", "region": "Alaska", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "United States territorial authorities, military, missionaries, mining and fishing corporations, and incoming settlers" ], "victims": [ "Alaska Native nations subjected to imposed sovereignty, land loss, mission schooling, extraction, and settler government" ], "agent_countries": [ "United States", "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United States", "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "united-states-continental-expansion", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "United States purchase replaced Russian imperial authority with a territorial regime that promoted extractive industries, missions, military rule, and later mass settler migration while denying Indigenous land sovereignty.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Alaska was acquired from Russia after the usual continental endpoint and developed through a separate territorial and extractive colonial system.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "United States purchase replaced Russian imperial authority with a territorial regime that promoted extractive industries, missions, military rule, and later mass settler migration while denying Indigenous land sovereignty.", "sources": [ { "id": "blackhawk", "title": "Blackhawk 2023, “Centrality of Dispossession”", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/centrality-of-dispossession/AFB10A4699800E6126DF0997D3A09026" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" }, { "id": "russian_periphery", "title": "Breyfogle, Schrader & Sunderland 2007", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/Peopling-the-Russian-Periphery-Borderland-Colonization-in-Eurasian-History/Breyfogle-Schrader-Sunderland/p/book/9780415544238" } ], "rendered_case_id": "us-alaska-colonial-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 57.2165505857, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.2165505857, "unknown_bound_high": 57.2165505857 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 77.9550101575, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.9550101575, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9550101575 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.9101960654, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.9101960654, "unknown_bound_high": 69.9101960654 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 36.1429994384, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.1429994384, "unknown_bound_high": 36.1429994384 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 79.3881871599, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.3881871599, "unknown_bound_high": 79.3881871599 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 66.3930129548, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.3930129548, "unknown_bound_high": 66.3930129548 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "canada-red-river-metis-dispossession", "name": "Canadian acquisition of the Northwest and Métis dispossession", "start": 1869, "end": 1885, "date_label": "1869–1885", "region": "Red River and Saskatchewan", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Canadian federal authorities, surveyors, militia, land speculators, and incoming settlers" ], "victims": [ "Métis communities at Red River and along the South Saskatchewan, and allied First Nations" ], "agent_countries": [ "Canada", "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Canada" ], "container_countries": [ "Canada" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "canadian-westward-settlement", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Canada acquired Rupert's Land, imposed a new survey and land system, and used scrip and military power in ways that dispersed Métis landholding and opened the region to newcomers.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Red River Resistance, scrip system, survey conflict, and 1885 war were a distinct transfer of a Métis homeland.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Canada acquired Rupert's Land, imposed a new survey and land system, and used scrip and military power in ways that dispersed Métis landholding and opened the region to newcomers.", "sources": [ { "id": "canada_harris", "title": "Harris 2020, A Bounded Land", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/a-bounded-land" }, { "id": "canada_eyford", "title": "Eyford 2016, White Settler Reserve", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/white-settler-reserve" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "canada-red-river-metis-dispossession", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 70.2180573435, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.2180573435, "unknown_bound_high": 70.2180573435 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 93.6404712459, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.6404712459, "unknown_bound_high": 93.6404712459 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 81.532563017, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.532563017, "unknown_bound_high": 81.532563017 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 74.6390029648, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.6390029648, "unknown_bound_high": 74.6390029648 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.3356316625, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.3356316625, "unknown_bound_high": 63.3356316625 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 70.9425855563, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.9425855563, "unknown_bound_high": 70.9425855563 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "canada-prairie-treaties-railway-settlement", "name": "Numbered Treaties, reserve confinement, and Prairie settler colonization", "start": 1871, "end": 1930, "date_label": "1871–1930", "region": "Canadian Prairies", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Canadian federal government, railway and immigration agencies, land companies, and farming settlers" ], "victims": [ "Cree, Saulteaux, Blackfoot Confederacy, Nakoda, Dakota, Dene, and other Prairie and parkland nations" ], "agent_countries": [ "Canada", "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "Canada" ], "container_countries": [ "Canada" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "canadian-westward-settlement", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Canada negotiated and coercively implemented treaties, confined First Nations to reserves, and promoted railway-linked farm settlement by migrants from eastern Canada, Europe, and the United States.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Treaties, famine policy, reserve confinement, railway construction, and mass farm immigration formed a separate Prairie system.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Canada negotiated and coercively implemented treaties, confined First Nations to reserves, and promoted railway-linked farm settlement by migrants from eastern Canada, Europe, and the United States.", "sources": [ { "id": "canada_harris", "title": "Harris 2020, A Bounded Land", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/a-bounded-land" }, { "id": "canada_eyford", "title": "Eyford 2016, White Settler Reserve", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/white-settler-reserve" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "canada-prairie-treaties-railway-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 72.9989595235, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.9989595235, "unknown_bound_high": 72.9989595235 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 93.6404712459, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.6404712459, "unknown_bound_high": 93.6404712459 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 79.9137880941, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.9137880941, "unknown_bound_high": 79.9137880941 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 76.588886209, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.588886209, "unknown_bound_high": 76.588886209 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 82.7365467712, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.7365467712, "unknown_bound_high": 82.7365467712 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75.7388370692, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.7388370692, "unknown_bound_high": 75.7388370692 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "canada-british-columbia-land-settlement", "name": "Settler land seizure and reserve creation in British Columbia", "start": 1858, "end": 1927, "date_label": "1858–1927", "region": "British Columbia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "British colonial and Canadian authorities, miners, ranchers, railway interests, and agricultural settlers" ], "victims": [ "Coastal and interior First Nations whose territories were occupied largely without treaties" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Canada" ], "victim_countries": [ "Canada" ], "container_countries": [ "Canada" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "canadian-westward-settlement", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Colonial and Canadian governments asserted sovereignty, granted land and resources to settlers, and confined First Nations to small reserves while rejecting most Indigenous title claims.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "British Columbia's mostly untreatied land regime, gold rushes, reserve allotment, and railway settlement differed fundamentally from the Prairie treaty system.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Colonial and Canadian governments asserted sovereignty, granted land and resources to settlers, and confined First Nations to small reserves while rejecting most Indigenous title claims.", "sources": [ { "id": "canada_harris", "title": "Harris 2020, A Bounded Land", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/a-bounded-land" }, { "id": "canada_eyford", "title": "Eyford 2016, White Settler Reserve", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/white-settler-reserve" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "canada-british-columbia-land-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 59.0776673776, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.0776673776, "unknown_bound_high": 59.0776673776 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 93.9289397438, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.9289397438, "unknown_bound_high": 93.9289397438 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.15133794, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.15133794, "unknown_bound_high": 83.15133794 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 65.4438627838, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.4438627838, "unknown_bound_high": 65.4438627838 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 80.8472525557, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.8472525557, "unknown_bound_high": 80.8472525557 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 79.0500129431, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.0500129431, "unknown_bound_high": 79.0500129431 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "canada-northern-state-settlement", "name": "Canadian northern administration, resource towns, and Indigenous resettlement", "start": 1898, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1898–present", "region": "Northern Canada", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Canadian federal and territorial authorities, police, missions, mining and hydrocarbon industries, and incoming workers" ], "victims": [ "Inuit, Dene, and other northern peoples subjected to imposed administration, schooling, settlement concentration, relocation, and resource development" ], "agent_countries": [ "Canada" ], "victim_countries": [ "Canada" ], "container_countries": [ "Canada" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "canadian-westward-settlement", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Police posts, missions, mines, military infrastructure, administrative settlements, schooling, and relocations concentrated northern populations and transferred decision-making over land and resources to the Canadian state.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Northern state expansion and settlement concentration did not follow the Prairie farm frontier and continued through distinct twentieth-century institutions.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Police posts, missions, mines, military infrastructure, administrative settlements, schooling, and relocations concentrated northern populations and transferred decision-making over land and resources to the Canadian state.", "sources": [ { "id": "canada_harris", "title": "Harris 2020, A Bounded Land", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/a-bounded-land" }, { "id": "canada_eyford", "title": "Eyford 2016, White Settler Reserve", "url": "https://www.ubcpress.ca/white-settler-reserve" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" }, { "id": "modern_high_arctic_relocation", "title": "Government of Canada, High Arctic forced relocations", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/library-archives/collection/research-help/indigenous-history/indigenous-terminology.html" } ], "rendered_case_id": "canada-northern-state-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.072683431, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.072683431, "unknown_bound_high": 84.072683431 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 89.927580527, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.927580527, "unknown_bound_high": 89.927580527 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 67.3880388061, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.3880388061, "unknown_bound_high": 67.3880388061 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 48.2634473364, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.2634473364, "unknown_bound_high": 48.2634473364 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 57.6448980276, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.6448980276, "unknown_bound_high": 57.6448980276 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 57.7109994283, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.7109994283, "unknown_bound_high": 57.7109994283 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "russia-west-siberian-conquest-settlement", "name": "Russian conquest and settlement of western Siberia", "start": 1582, "end": 1700, "date_label": "1582–c. 1700", "region": "Western Siberia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Russian Cossacks, servitors, tribute collectors, merchants, peasants, and Orthodox missions" ], "victims": [ "Khanty, Mansi, Nenets, Selkup, Siberian Tatar, and other western Siberian peoples" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Russia" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "siberia", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Cossack campaigns and fort construction imposed tribute and sovereignty while towns, farms, missions, and exile settlement gradually expanded along western Siberian rivers.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The conquest of the Siberian Khanate and Ob–Irtysh tribute frontier was the first regional phase, not the whole of Siberia.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Cossack campaigns and fort construction imposed tribute and sovereignty while towns, farms, missions, and exile settlement gradually expanded along western Siberian rivers.", "sources": [ { "id": "russian_periphery", "title": "Breyfogle, Schrader & Sunderland 2007", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/Peopling-the-Russian-Periphery-Borderland-Colonization-in-Eurasian-History/Breyfogle-Schrader-Sunderland/p/book/9780415544238" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "russia-west-siberian-conquest-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 73.1021757634, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.1021757634, "unknown_bound_high": 73.1021757634 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 57.1505217517, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.1505217517, "unknown_bound_high": 57.1505217517 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 66.2720658194, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.2720658194, "unknown_bound_high": 66.2720658194 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.9358842106, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.9358842106, "unknown_bound_high": 31.9358842106 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.7494464722, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.7494464722, "unknown_bound_high": 63.7494464722 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 73.5045268746, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.5045268746, "unknown_bound_high": 73.5045268746 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "russia-lena-yakutia-colonization", "name": "Russian colonization of the Lena basin and Sakha country", "start": 1620, "end": 1750, "date_label": "c. 1620–1750", "region": "Eastern Siberia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Russian Cossacks, tribute collectors, merchants, peasants, and Orthodox missions" ], "victims": [ "Sakha, Evenki, Yukaghir, and other Lena-basin peoples" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Russia" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "siberia", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Russian forts and tribute expeditions imposed extractive rule in the Lena basin, with violence, epidemic loss, missionization, and incoming settlement altering Sakha and neighboring lands.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Lena and Yakutia tribute-and-fort system involved different Indigenous polities and a separate eastward sequence.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Russian forts and tribute expeditions imposed extractive rule in the Lena basin, with violence, epidemic loss, missionization, and incoming settlement altering Sakha and neighboring lands.", "sources": [ { "id": "russian_periphery", "title": "Breyfogle, Schrader & Sunderland 2007", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/Peopling-the-Russian-Periphery-Borderland-Colonization-in-Eurasian-History/Breyfogle-Schrader-Sunderland/p/book/9780415544238" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "russia-lena-yakutia-colonization", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 54.3717896278, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.3717896278, "unknown_bound_high": 54.3717896278 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 50.2947727607, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.2947727607, "unknown_bound_high": 50.2947727607 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 48.810846873, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.810846873, "unknown_bound_high": 48.810846873 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 22.563984413, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.563984413, "unknown_bound_high": 22.563984413 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 66.1975157037, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.1975157037, "unknown_bound_high": 66.1975157037 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 70.683089487, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.683089487, "unknown_bound_high": 70.683089487 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "russia-baikal-buryat-colonization", "name": "Russian colonization of the Baikal region and Buryat lands", "start": 1640, "end": 1900, "date_label": "c. 1640–1900", "region": "South-central Siberia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Russian Cossacks, peasants, exile settlers, Orthodox missions, and imperial administrators" ], "victims": [ "Buryat, Evenki, and other Baikal-region peoples" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Russia", "Mongolia" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia", "Mongolia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "siberia", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Russian military and peasant settlement expanded around Lake Baikal and into Transbaikalia, appropriating pasture and farm land while reorganizing Buryat governance and religious life.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Baikal colonization linked tribute, negotiated border formation, agricultural migration, and Buryat land loss over a long regional sequence.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Russian military and peasant settlement expanded around Lake Baikal and into Transbaikalia, appropriating pasture and farm land while reorganizing Buryat governance and religious life.", "sources": [ { "id": "russian_periphery", "title": "Breyfogle, Schrader & Sunderland 2007", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/Peopling-the-Russian-Periphery-Borderland-Colonization-in-Eurasian-History/Breyfogle-Schrader-Sunderland/p/book/9780415544238" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "russia-baikal-buryat-colonization", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 67.8199114464, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.8199114464, "unknown_bound_high": 67.8199114464 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 65.2478431221, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.2478431221, "unknown_bound_high": 65.2478431221 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 80.3754643399, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.3754643399, "unknown_bound_high": 80.3754643399 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 35.854989967, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.854989967, "unknown_bound_high": 35.854989967 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 48.1391907379, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.1391907379, "unknown_bound_high": 48.1391907379 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 70.683089487, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.683089487, "unknown_bound_high": 70.683089487 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "russia-northeast-siberia-kamchatka-colonization", "name": "Russian conquest and settlement of northeastern Siberia and Kamchatka", "start": 1640, "end": 1900, "date_label": "c. 1640–1900", "region": "Northeastern Siberia and Kamchatka", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Russian Cossacks, tribute collectors, fur traders, Orthodox missions, and settlers" ], "victims": [ "Chukchi, Koryak, Itelmen, Yukaghir, and other northeastern peoples" ], "agent_countries": [ "Russia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Russia" ], "container_countries": [ "Russia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "siberia", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Fur tribute, campaigns, hostage taking, epidemic disease, missionization, and settlement devastated many Kamchatkan communities, while Chukchi resistance forced a less direct imperial accommodation.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Northeastern conquest included especially prolonged resistance and catastrophic population loss and cannot be represented by a marker in western Siberia.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Fur tribute, campaigns, hostage taking, epidemic disease, missionization, and settlement devastated many Kamchatkan communities, while Chukchi resistance forced a less direct imperial accommodation.", "sources": [ { "id": "russian_periphery", "title": "Breyfogle, Schrader & Sunderland 2007", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/Peopling-the-Russian-Periphery-Borderland-Colonization-in-Eurasian-History/Breyfogle-Schrader-Sunderland/p/book/9780415544238" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "russia-northeast-siberia-kamchatka-colonization", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 62.5720520059, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5720520059, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5720520059 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 47.0363301066, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.0363301066, "unknown_bound_high": 47.0363301066 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 53.3533724456, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.3533724456, "unknown_bound_high": 53.3533724456 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 27.1826626997, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1826626997, "unknown_bound_high": 27.1826626997 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 80.2016540851, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.2016540851, "unknown_bound_high": 80.2016540851 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.1095400657, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.1095400657, "unknown_bound_high": 77.1095400657 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "south-africa-xhosa-frontier-wars-settlement", "name": "Xhosa frontier wars and British settlement of the eastern Cape", "start": 1779, "end": 1878, "date_label": "1779–1878", "region": "Eastern Cape", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Cape colonial forces, British imperial troops, commandos, military settlers, and colonial farmers" ], "victims": [ "Xhosa polities and neighboring African communities subjected to land loss, cattle seizure, war, and famine" ], "agent_countries": [ "Netherlands", "United Kingdom", "South Africa" ], "victim_countries": [ "South Africa" ], "container_countries": [ "Netherlands", "United Kingdom", "South Africa" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "south-africa", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Successive colonial advances across the Fish and Kei rivers used war, expulsion, annexation, mission settlement, and military colonization to transfer Xhosa land to settlers.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Nine frontier wars and the 1820 settler project constituted a distinct, century-long eastern Cape process.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Successive colonial advances across the Fish and Kei rivers used war, expulsion, annexation, mission settlement, and military colonization to transfer Xhosa land to settlers.", "sources": [ { "id": "thompson_sa", "title": "Thompson 2014, A History of South Africa", "url": "https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300189353/a-history-of-south-africa-fourth-edition/" }, { "id": "adhikari_san", "title": "Adhikari 2011, Anatomy of a S. African Genocide", "url": "https://ohioswallow.com/book/The+Anatomy+of+a+South+African+Genocide" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "south-africa-xhosa-frontier-wars-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 64.2663780263, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.2663780263, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2663780263 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 78.0721381466, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.0721381466, "unknown_bound_high": 78.0721381466 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 70.9405382353, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.9405382353, "unknown_bound_high": 70.9405382353 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 27.2368344302, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.2368344302, "unknown_bound_high": 27.2368344302 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.1449602063, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.1449602063, "unknown_bound_high": 75.1449602063 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 46.7603760975, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.7603760975, "unknown_bound_high": 46.7603760975 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "south-africa-great-trek-interior-settlement", "name": "Great Trek and Boer settlement of the South African interior", "start": 1835, "end": 1902, "date_label": "1835–1902", "region": "South African interior", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Voortrekkers, Boer republic governments and commandos, and later British imperial forces and settlers" ], "victims": [ "Ndebele, Zulu, Sotho, Tswana, Pedi, Venda, and other African polities whose land and sovereignty were attacked or constrained" ], "agent_countries": [ "South Africa", "United Kingdom" ], "victim_countries": [ "South Africa", "Lesotho", "Eswatini" ], "container_countries": [ "South Africa", "Lesotho", "Eswatini", "United Kingdom" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "south-africa", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Voortrekkers established settler republics through migration, treaties, and war; later mineral capitalism and British conquest intensified land seizure, labor coercion, and state consolidation.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Interior Boer migration, republic formation, African-state wars, mineral discovery, and British conquest were not a continuation of the early Cape frontier.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Voortrekkers established settler republics through migration, treaties, and war; later mineral capitalism and British conquest intensified land seizure, labor coercion, and state consolidation.", "sources": [ { "id": "thompson_sa", "title": "Thompson 2014, A History of South Africa", "url": "https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300189353/a-history-of-south-africa-fourth-edition/" }, { "id": "saho_landact", "title": "SAHO, “Natives Land Act 1913”", "url": "https://sahistory.org.za/article/natives-land-act-1913" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "south-africa-great-trek-interior-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 30.4138712937, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.4138712937, "unknown_bound_high": 30.4138712937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 81.6572854818, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.6572854818, "unknown_bound_high": 81.6572854818 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 79.7184079177, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.7184079177, "unknown_bound_high": 79.7184079177 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 21.5499516716, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.5499516716, "unknown_bound_high": 21.5499516716 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.16724663, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.16724663, "unknown_bound_high": 62.16724663 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 65.262858607, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.262858607, "unknown_bound_high": 65.262858607 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "australia-new-south-wales-frontier", "name": "British settlement and Aboriginal dispossession in New South Wales", "start": 1788, "end": 1850, "date_label": "1788–c. 1850", "region": "Eastern Australia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "British colonial government, convicts, free settlers, pastoral squatters, and mounted police" ], "victims": [ "Eora, Dharug, Wiradjuri, Gamilaraay, and other Aboriginal nations" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Australia" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "australia", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "A penal outpost became an expanding agricultural and pastoral colony, seizing water and land and using police, settler violence, massacre, and legal denial of sovereignty against Aboriginal nations.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The Sydney penal colony and pastoral expansion across New South Wales formed the first regional frontier with its own wars and nations.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "A penal outpost became an expanding agricultural and pastoral colony, seizing water and land and using police, settler violence, massacre, and legal denial of sovereignty against Aboriginal nations.", "sources": [ { "id": "newcastle_massacres", "title": "Ryan et al., Colonial Frontier Massacres", "url": "https://c21ch.newcastle.edu.au/colonialmassacres/" }, { "id": "mabo_hca", "title": "Mabo v Queensland (No 2) 1992", "url": "https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/1992/23.html" }, { "id": "reynolds_frontier", "title": "Reynolds 2006, The Other Side of the Frontier", "url": "https://unsw.press/books/the-other-side-of-the-frontier/" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "australia-new-south-wales-frontier", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 56.6917611193, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.6917611193, "unknown_bound_high": 56.6917611193 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 80.2444297431, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.2444297431, "unknown_bound_high": 80.2444297431 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 77.9912239317, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.9912239317, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9912239317 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.9661529475, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.9661529475, "unknown_bound_high": 69.9661529475 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 83.7360540866, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.7360540866, "unknown_bound_high": 83.7360540866 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 76.6663836709, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.6663836709, "unknown_bound_high": 76.6663836709 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "australia-van-diemens-land-frontier", "name": "Van Diemen's Land invasion, Black War, and Palawa removal", "start": 1803, "end": 1847, "date_label": "1803–1847", "region": "Tasmania", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "British colonial government, soldiers, settlers, roving parties, and sealers" ], "victims": [ "Palawa peoples subjected to killing, abduction, territorial invasion, and removal to Bass Strait islands" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Australia" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "australia", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Settler expansion triggered war and massacre; colonial authorities then attempted military sweeps and removed surviving Palawa people to offshore settlements where mortality remained severe.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Tasmania's exceptionally rapid invasion, Black War, Black Line, and island exile require a separate case.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Settler expansion triggered war and massacre; colonial authorities then attempted military sweeps and removed surviving Palawa people to offshore settlements where mortality remained severe.", "sources": [ { "id": "newcastle_massacres", "title": "Ryan et al., Colonial Frontier Massacres", "url": "https://c21ch.newcastle.edu.au/colonialmassacres/" }, { "id": "nma_blackline", "title": "Nat. Museum of Australia, “The Black Line”", "url": "https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/the-black-line" }, { "id": "reynolds_frontier", "title": "Reynolds 2006, The Other Side of the Frontier", "url": "https://unsw.press/books/the-other-side-of-the-frontier/" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "australia-van-diemens-land-frontier", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 66.0933357052, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.0933357052, "unknown_bound_high": 66.0933357052 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 82.2535879163, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.2535879163, "unknown_bound_high": 82.2535879163 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 73.4486983591, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.4486983591, "unknown_bound_high": 73.4486983591 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 83.444398926, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.444398926, "unknown_bound_high": 83.444398926 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 93.5767984676, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.5767984676, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5767984676 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 72.3861635664, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.3861635664, "unknown_bound_high": 72.3861635664 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 } } }, { "event_id": "australia-port-phillip-southeast-pastoral-frontier", "name": "Pastoral invasion of Port Phillip and southeastern Australia", "start": 1834, "end": 1870, "date_label": "1834–c. 1870", "region": "Southeastern Australia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Pastoral squatters, colonial governments, police, and gold-rush migrants" ], "victims": [ "Kulin nations and Aboriginal peoples across Victoria and southeastern South Australia" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Australia" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "australia", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Unauthorized and then state-sanctioned pastoral settlement occupied grasslands and water, while violence, disease, reserves, and gold-rush growth dispossessed Aboriginal nations across the southeast.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "The fast pastoral occupation of Port Phillip and the gold-rush colony was a separate frontier from New South Wales and Tasmania.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Unauthorized and then state-sanctioned pastoral settlement occupied grasslands and water, while violence, disease, reserves, and gold-rush growth dispossessed Aboriginal nations across the southeast.", "sources": [ { "id": "newcastle_massacres", "title": "Ryan et al., Colonial Frontier Massacres", "url": "https://c21ch.newcastle.edu.au/colonialmassacres/" }, { "id": "mabo_hca", "title": "Mabo v Queensland (No 2) 1992", "url": "https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/1992/23.html" }, { "id": "reynolds_frontier", "title": "Reynolds 2006, The Other Side of the Frontier", "url": "https://unsw.press/books/the-other-side-of-the-frontier/" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "australia-port-phillip-southeast-pastoral-frontier", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 55.7156404474, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.7156404474, "unknown_bound_high": 55.7156404474 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 85.5284816173, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.5284816173, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5284816173 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.3026388524, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.3026388524, "unknown_bound_high": 75.3026388524 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 79.5634482708, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.5634482708, "unknown_bound_high": 79.5634482708 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 83.7360540866, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.7360540866, "unknown_bound_high": 83.7360540866 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 72.3861635664, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.3861635664, "unknown_bound_high": 72.3861635664 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "australia-queensland-northern-frontier", "name": "Queensland and northern Australian pastoral and mining frontiers", "start": 1840, "end": 1930, "date_label": "c. 1840–1930", "region": "Queensland and northern Australia", "mechanism": "genocide-linked clearance", "agents": [ "Pastoralists, miners, colonial and state governments, Native Police, and settler militias" ], "victims": [ "Aboriginal nations across Queensland and northern Australia" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Australia" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "australia", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Pastoral and mining occupation spread through organized punitive patrols, massacre, food and water seizure, coerced labor, and later reserve and protection systems.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Northern pastoral expansion relied heavily on paramilitary Native Police and continued decades after southern frontiers had consolidated.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Pastoral and mining occupation spread through organized punitive patrols, massacre, food and water seizure, coerced labor, and later reserve and protection systems.", "sources": [ { "id": "newcastle_massacres", "title": "Ryan et al., Colonial Frontier Massacres", "url": "https://c21ch.newcastle.edu.au/colonialmassacres/" }, { "id": "mabo_hca", "title": "Mabo v Queensland (No 2) 1992", "url": "https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/1992/23.html" }, { "id": "reynolds_frontier", "title": "Reynolds 2006, The Other Side of the Frontier", "url": "https://unsw.press/books/the-other-side-of-the-frontier/" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "australia-queensland-northern-frontier", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 58.5036047116, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.5036047116, "unknown_bound_high": 58.5036047116 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 94.2367736804, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 94.2367736804, "unknown_bound_high": 94.2367736804 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 82.4540972976, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.4540972976, "unknown_bound_high": 82.4540972976 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 57.0406219649, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.0406219649, "unknown_bound_high": 57.0406219649 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 90.358563804, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.358563804, "unknown_bound_high": 90.358563804 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 81.4533550704, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.4533550704, "unknown_bound_high": 81.4533550704 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "australia-western-australia-frontiers", "name": "Western Australian settlement frontiers and Aboriginal dispossession", "start": 1829, "end": 1930, "date_label": "1829–c. 1930", "region": "Western Australia", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "Swan River colonists, pastoralists, miners, colonial police, and Western Australian authorities" ], "victims": [ "Noongar and Aboriginal nations of the southwest, northwest, and interior" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "victim_countries": [ "Australia" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "Australia" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "australia", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Settlement around Swan River and later pastoral and mineral frontiers seized Aboriginal land and imposed punitive violence, labor coercion, imprisonment, missions, and reserve systems.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Western Australia's southwest colony, later pastoral northwest, and goldfields advanced on their own chronologies.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Settlement around Swan River and later pastoral and mineral frontiers seized Aboriginal land and imposed punitive violence, labor coercion, imprisonment, missions, and reserve systems.", "sources": [ { "id": "newcastle_massacres", "title": "Ryan et al., Colonial Frontier Massacres", "url": "https://c21ch.newcastle.edu.au/colonialmassacres/" }, { "id": "mabo_hca", "title": "Mabo v Queensland (No 2) 1992", "url": "https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/1992/23.html" }, { "id": "reynolds_frontier", "title": "Reynolds 2006, The Other Side of the Frontier", "url": "https://unsw.press/books/the-other-side-of-the-frontier/" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "australia-western-australia-frontiers", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 58.0183883534, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.0183883534, "unknown_bound_high": 58.0183883534 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 93.2348927267, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.2348927267, "unknown_bound_high": 93.2348927267 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 76.2219727848, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.2219727848, "unknown_bound_high": 76.2219727848 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 50.4731187193, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.4731187193, "unknown_bound_high": 50.4731187193 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 93.5767984676, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.5767984676, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5767984676 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 79.0500129431, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.0500129431, "unknown_bound_high": 79.0500129431 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 } } }, { "event_id": "new-zealand-company-crown-colonization", "name": "New Zealand Company and Crown settlement in Aotearoa", "start": 1839, "end": 1860, "date_label": "1839–1860", "region": "Aotearoa New Zealand", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "New Zealand Company, British Crown, land purchasers, and British and Irish settlers" ], "victims": [ "Māori iwi and hapū facing disputed purchases, settler towns, and Crown sovereignty claims" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "New Zealand" ], "victim_countries": [ "New Zealand" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "New Zealand" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "new-zealand", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Organized migration created new settler towns before and after the Treaty of Waitangi, while ambiguous and fraudulent purchases generated disputes over title, sovereignty, and reserve promises.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "Company settlements and early Crown purchases preceded the New Zealand Wars and operated through distinct, frequently contested land transactions.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Organized migration created new settler towns before and after the Treaty of Waitangi, while ambiguous and fraudulent purchases generated disputes over title, sovereignty, and reserve promises.", "sources": [ { "id": "nzhistory_land", "title": "NZHistory, “Māori land 1860–2000”", "url": "https://nzhistory.govt.nz/media/interactive/maori-land-1860-2000" }, { "id": "waitangi_tribunal", "title": "Waitangi Tribunal", "url": "https://www.waitangitribunal.govt.nz/en/about" }, { "id": "teara_population", "title": "Te Ara, “Māori population change”", "url": "https://teara.govt.nz/en/taupori-maori-maori-population-change/page-2" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "new-zealand-company-crown-colonization", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 52.1435052348, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.1435052348, "unknown_bound_high": 52.1435052348 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 80.742811071, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.742811071, "unknown_bound_high": 80.742811071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 81.532563017, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.532563017, "unknown_bound_high": 81.532563017 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 59.7158219181, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.7158219181, "unknown_bound_high": 59.7158219181 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.6381473055, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.6381473055, "unknown_bound_high": 63.6381473055 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 67.1246583875, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.1246583875, "unknown_bound_high": 67.1246583875 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "new-zealand-wars-confiscation-military-settlement", "name": "New Zealand Wars, land confiscation, and military settlement", "start": 1860, "end": 1881, "date_label": "1860–1881", "region": "North Island, Aotearoa New Zealand", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "British imperial and colonial forces, New Zealand government, settler militias, and military settlers" ], "victims": [ "Taranaki iwi, Waikato-Tainui, Ngāi Te Rangi, Tūhoe, and other Māori communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "New Zealand" ], "victim_countries": [ "New Zealand" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "New Zealand" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "new-zealand", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Colonial armies invaded Māori-controlled districts, confiscated large territories under punitive legislation, and settled soldiers and civilians on seized land while resistance continued.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "War, raupatu confiscation, and military settlement in the North Island were a distinct coercive phase.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Colonial armies invaded Māori-controlled districts, confiscated large territories under punitive legislation, and settled soldiers and civilians on seized land while resistance continued.", "sources": [ { "id": "omalley_waikato", "title": "O’Malley 2016, The Great War for New Zealand", "url": "https://www.bwb.co.nz/books/the-great-war-for-new-zealand/" }, { "id": "teara_nzwars", "title": "Te Ara, “New Zealand Wars”", "url": "https://teara.govt.nz/en/new-zealand-wars" }, { "id": "nzhistory_land", "title": "NZHistory, “Māori land 1860–2000”", "url": "https://nzhistory.govt.nz/media/interactive/maori-land-1860-2000" }, { "id": "waitangi_tribunal", "title": "Waitangi Tribunal", "url": "https://www.waitangitribunal.govt.nz/en/about" } ], "rendered_case_id": "new-zealand-wars-confiscation-military-settlement", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 65.8676701024, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.8676701024, "unknown_bound_high": 65.8676701024 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 86.3032818361, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.3032818361, "unknown_bound_high": 86.3032818361 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 86.6872410593, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.6872410593, "unknown_bound_high": 86.6872410593 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 67.7834902478, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.7834902478, "unknown_bound_high": 67.7834902478 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.2317701256, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.2317701256, "unknown_bound_high": 68.2317701256 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 72.633418792, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.633418792, "unknown_bound_high": 72.633418792 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "new-zealand-south-island-ngai-tahu-dispossession", "name": "Crown purchasing and Ngāi Tahu dispossession in the South Island", "start": 1844, "end": 1900, "date_label": "1844–c. 1900", "region": "South Island, Aotearoa New Zealand", "mechanism": "settler colonization", "agents": [ "New Zealand Company, Crown purchase agents, provincial governments, and British settlers" ], "victims": [ "Ngāi Tahu and other South Island Māori communities whose land and mahinga kai access were lost" ], "agent_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "New Zealand" ], "victim_countries": [ "New Zealand" ], "container_countries": [ "United Kingdom", "New Zealand" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "wrongly bundled", "atlas_case_ids": "new-zealand", "recommendation": "core", "confidence": "high", "summary": "A small number of Crown purchases transferred most of the South Island to settler control while promised reserves, schools, hospitals, and access to food-gathering places were inadequately provided.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "South Island dispossession occurred mainly through enormous purchases, inadequate reserves, and broken resource-access promises rather than the North Island war sequence.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "A small number of Crown purchases transferred most of the South Island to settler control while promised reserves, schools, hospitals, and access to food-gathering places were inadequately provided.", "sources": [ { "id": "nzhistory_land", "title": "NZHistory, “Māori land 1860–2000”", "url": "https://nzhistory.govt.nz/media/interactive/maori-land-1860-2000" }, { "id": "waitangi_tribunal", "title": "Waitangi Tribunal", "url": "https://www.waitangitribunal.govt.nz/en/about" }, { "id": "teara_population", "title": "Te Ara, “Māori population change”", "url": "https://teara.govt.nz/en/taupori-maori-maori-population-change/page-2" }, { "id": "handbook", "title": "Cavanagh & Veracini 2017", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Handbook-of-the-History-of-Settler-Colonialism/Cavanagh-Veracini/p/book/9780367581480" } ], "rendered_case_id": "new-zealand-south-island-ngai-tahu-dispossession", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "register", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 60.6951222214, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.6951222214, "unknown_bound_high": 60.6951222214 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 86.3032818361, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.3032818361, "unknown_bound_high": 86.3032818361 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 80.8353223747, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.8353223747, "unknown_bound_high": 80.8353223747 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 59.4100548988, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.4100548988, "unknown_bound_high": 59.4100548988 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 51.8570945345, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.8570945345, "unknown_bound_high": 51.8570945345 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 58.2488246486, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.2488246486, "unknown_bound_high": 58.2488246486 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-jewish-departure-algeria", "name": "Decolonization and the exodus of Algeria's Jews", "start": 1961, "end": 1963, "date_label": "1961–1963", "region": "Algeria and France", "mechanism": "decolonization exodus, violence, and citizenship rupture", "agents": [ "French colonial and repatriation institutions", "Algerian nationalist and European settler combatants", "Algerian Jewish families departing with the wider repatriate exodus" ], "victims": [ "Algerian Jews uprooted during the violent collapse of French Algeria and the transfer of most of the community to France" ], "agent_countries": [ "France", "Algeria" ], "victim_countries": [ "Algeria" ], "container_countries": [ "Algeria", "France", "Israel" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "post-audit addition", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Most Algerian Jews held French citizenship under a colonial order that separated them legally from the Muslim majority. As the war of independence ended in violence and French rule collapsed, nearly the whole community departed—primarily to France—with the broader repatriate exodus.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Most Algerian Jews held French citizenship under a colonial order that separated them legally from the Muslim majority. As the war of independence ended in violence and French rule collapsed, nearly the whole community departed—primarily to France—with the broader repatriate exodus.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_north_africa_laskier", "title": "Laskier, North African Jewry in the Twentieth Century", "url": "https://nyupress.org/9780814751299/north-african-jewry-in-the-twentieth-century/" }, { "id": "mena_north_africa_emancipation", "title": "Sorkin, Jewish Emancipation: Maghreb and Mashreq", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/princeton-scholarship-online/book/33984/chapter-abstract/288867341" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-jewish-departure-algeria", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "events_json_post_audit", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 33.8912265241, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.8912265241, "unknown_bound_high": 33.8912265241 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 48.4083803942, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.4083803942, "unknown_bound_high": 48.4083803942 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 83.8541244542, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.8541244542, "unknown_bound_high": 83.8541244542 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 28.3647623338, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.3647623338, "unknown_bound_high": 28.3647623338 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 68.0913413324, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.0913413324, "unknown_bound_high": 68.0913413324 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-jewish-departure-iran", "name": "Revolution-driven Jewish departure from Iran", "start": 1979, "end": 2000, "date_label": "1979–c. 2000", "region": "Iran and the global diaspora", "mechanism": "revolution-driven refugee and diaspora migration", "agents": [ "Islamic Republic institutions and revolutionary courts", "Iranian Jewish family and diaspora networks", "Refugee and migration institutions in the United States, Europe, and Israel" ], "victims": [ "Iranian Jews leaving amid executions, revolutionary insecurity, war, and uncertainty while a recognized Jewish minority remained" ], "agent_countries": [ "Iran" ], "victim_countries": [ "Iran" ], "container_countries": [ "Iran", "United States", "Israel" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "post-audit addition", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Iran was a regional anomaly: Jewish integration expanded during much of the mid-twentieth century, and the major departure came after the 1979 revolution. Execution, revolutionary insecurity, the Iran–Iraq war, and uncertainty drove most of the community abroad—especially to the United States, Europe, and Israel—while a legally recognized Jewish minority remained in Iran.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Iran was a regional anomaly: Jewish integration expanded during much of the mid-twentieth century, and the major departure came after the 1979 revolution. Execution, revolutionary insecurity, the Iran–Iraq war, and uncertainty drove most of the community abroad—especially to the United States, Europe, and Israel—while a legally recognized Jewish minority remained in Iran.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_iran_sternfeld", "title": "Sternfeld, Combating the Double Erasure: Can a Jew (Kalimi) be an Iranian in the Islamic Republic?", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-middle-east-studies/article/combating-the-double-erasure-can-a-jew-kalimi-be-an-iranian-in-the-islamic-republic/4A655103A72D43098683525E572435E3" }, { "id": "roumani_2003", "title": "Roumani 2003, “The Silent Refugees”", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1215/10474552-14-3-41" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-jewish-departure-iran", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "events_json_post_audit", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 38.2521562195, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.2521562195, "unknown_bound_high": 38.2521562195 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 43.500174338, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.500174338, "unknown_bound_high": 43.500174338 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 57.3288821919, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.3288821919, "unknown_bound_high": 57.3288821919 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 28.3647623338, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.3647623338, "unknown_bound_high": 28.3647623338 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.5427090162, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.5427090162, "unknown_bound_high": 54.5427090162 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-jewish-departure-iraq", "name": "Denaturalization, property sequestration, and the departure of Iraq's Jews", "start": 1950, "end": 1951, "date_label": "1950–1951", "region": "Iraq and Israel", "mechanism": "denaturalization, property sequestration, and refugee migration", "agents": [ "Iraqi monarchy, parliament, and security services", "Zionist underground, Jewish Agency, and Israeli airlift organizers", "Iraqi Jewish households leaving under radically narrowed choices" ], "victims": [ "Iraqi Jews who surrendered citizenship, lost or sold property under duress, and left a community more than two millennia old" ], "agent_countries": [ "Iraq", "Israel" ], "victim_countries": [ "Iraq" ], "container_countries": [ "Iraq", "Israel" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "post-audit addition", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Iraq's 1950 denaturalization law allowed Jews to depart only after surrendering citizenship; a 1951 measure froze the property of those registered to leave. Antisemitic repression and insecurity, Zionist organizing and Israeli airlift operations, and the legal destruction of return options together turned emigration into mass, largely irreversible displacement.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Iraq's 1950 denaturalization law allowed Jews to depart only after surrendering citizenship; a 1951 measure froze the property of those registered to leave. Antisemitic repression and insecurity, Zionist organizing and Israeli airlift operations, and the legal destruction of return options together turned emigration into mass, largely irreversible displacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_iraq_saleh_undesirables", "title": "Saleh, Political Undesirables: Citizenship, Denaturalization, and Reclamation in Iraq", "url": "https://www.sup.org/books/middle-east-studies/political-undesirables" }, { "id": "mena_iraq_gat_exodus", "title": "Gat, The Jewish Exodus from Iraq, 1948–1951", "url": "https://www.routledge.com/The-Jewish-Exodus-from-Iraq-1948-1951/Gat/p/book/9780714646893" }, { "id": "mena_jewish_exodus", "title": "Roby, Not All Who Ascend Remain: Afro-Asian Jewish Returnees from Israel", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020743822000101" }, { "id": "roumani_2003", "title": "Roumani 2003, “The Silent Refugees”", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1215/10474552-14-3-41" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-jewish-departure-iraq", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "events_json_post_audit", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 78.716045737, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.716045737, "unknown_bound_high": 78.716045737 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 64.2969147275, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.2969147275, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2969147275 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.7350751094, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.7350751094, "unknown_bound_high": 87.7350751094 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 25.3310005965, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.3310005965, "unknown_bound_high": 25.3310005965 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 62.0649359105, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.0649359105, "unknown_bound_high": 62.0649359105 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-jewish-departure-lebanon", "name": "Civil-war displacement and the collapse of Lebanon's Jewish community", "start": 1958, "end": 1990, "date_label": "1958–1990", "region": "Lebanon and the Mediterranean", "mechanism": "civil-war displacement and communal collapse", "agents": [ "Lebanese and regional armed factions", "Syrian and Israeli military forces", "Lebanese Jewish families using diaspora and refugee networks" ], "victims": [ "Lebanese Jews displaced by recurring conflict, insecurity, kidnapping, and the destruction of communal life" ], "agent_countries": [ "Lebanon", "Syria", "Israel" ], "victim_countries": [ "Lebanon" ], "container_countries": [ "Lebanon", "France", "Canada", "Israel" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "post-audit addition", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Lebanon's Jewish population increased after 1948 as Syrian Jews sought refuge there. Departures began amid the 1958 crisis and regional conflict, then accelerated during the prolonged civil war, kidnappings, and the 1982 Israeli invasion until organized communal life was nearly extinguished.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Lebanon's Jewish population increased after 1948 as Syrian Jews sought refuge there. Departures began amid the 1958 crisis and regional conflict, then accelerated during the prolonged civil war, kidnappings, and the 1982 Israeli invasion until organized communal life was nearly extinguished.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_lebanon_schulze", "title": "Schulze, The Jews of Lebanon: Between Coexistence and Conflict", "url": "https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/25747/" }, { "id": "roumani_2003", "title": "Roumani 2003, “The Silent Refugees”", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1215/10474552-14-3-41" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-jewish-departure-lebanon", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "events_json_post_audit", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 25.018854707, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.018854707, "unknown_bound_high": 25.018854707 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 15.0531766741, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.0531766741, "unknown_bound_high": 15.0531766741 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 72.6714969371, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.6714969371, "unknown_bound_high": 72.6714969371 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 25.1860403902, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.1860403902, "unknown_bound_high": 25.1860403902 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 58.9822670548, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.9822670548, "unknown_bound_high": 58.9822670548 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-jewish-departure-morocco", "name": "Multiwave Jewish emigration from Morocco", "start": 1948, "end": 1973, "date_label": "1948–1973", "region": "Morocco, Europe, and Israel", "mechanism": "multiwave emigration under insecurity, restriction, and organized recruitment", "agents": [ "French protectorate and independent Moroccan authorities", "Zionist, Mossad, and HIAS migration networks", "Moroccan Jewish households choosing among constrained destinations" ], "victims": [ "Moroccan Jewish communities diminished by insecurity, temporary emigration bans, clandestine departure, and repeated mass-migration waves" ], "agent_countries": [ "Morocco", "France", "Israel" ], "victim_countries": [ "Morocco" ], "container_countries": [ "Morocco", "France", "Israel", "Canada" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "post-audit addition", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Moroccan Jews left in several waves: amid violence and uncertainty after 1948, through clandestine routes during periods of restriction, under negotiated mass emigration in 1961–64, and after renewed regional crises in 1967 and 1973. Many went to Israel, while major communities also formed in France and Canada.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Moroccan Jews left in several waves: amid violence and uncertainty after 1948, through clandestine routes during periods of restriction, under negotiated mass emigration in 1961–64, and after renewed regional crises in 1967 and 1973. Many went to Israel, while major communities also formed in France and Canada.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_north_africa_laskier", "title": "Laskier, North African Jewry in the Twentieth Century", "url": "https://nyupress.org/9780814751299/north-african-jewry-in-the-twentieth-century/" }, { "id": "mena_north_africa_emancipation", "title": "Sorkin, Jewish Emancipation: Maghreb and Mashreq", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/princeton-scholarship-online/book/33984/chapter-abstract/288867341" }, { "id": "mena_jewish_exodus", "title": "Roby, Not All Who Ascend Remain: Afro-Asian Jewish Returnees from Israel", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020743822000101" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-jewish-departure-morocco", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "events_json_post_audit", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 49.3930422304, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.3930422304, "unknown_bound_high": 49.3930422304 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 30.2687391209, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2687391209, "unknown_bound_high": 30.2687391209 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 13.0576648834, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.0576648834, "unknown_bound_high": 13.0576648834 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 78.4435468054, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.4435468054, "unknown_bound_high": 78.4435468054 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 25.3310005965, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.3310005965, "unknown_bound_high": 25.3310005965 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 58.0358679003, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.0358679003, "unknown_bound_high": 58.0358679003 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-jewish-departure-syria", "name": "Restriction, clandestine flight, and the delayed departure of Syria's Jews", "start": 1948, "end": 1994, "date_label": "1948–1994", "region": "Syria and the eastern Mediterranean", "mechanism": "travel restriction, property constraint, clandestine flight, and delayed exodus", "agents": [ "Syrian governments and security services", "Clandestine migration and family networks", "Syrian Jewish households leaving after restrictions were lifted" ], "victims": [ "Syrian Jews subjected to surveillance and restrictions on travel, residence, employment, and disposal of property" ], "agent_countries": [ "Syria" ], "victim_countries": [ "Syria" ], "container_countries": [ "Syria", "Israel", "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "post-audit addition", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "After 1948, Syrian Jews faced surveillance and severe limits on travel and property, producing dangerous clandestine flight while much of the community remained effectively trapped. In 1992 the government lifted major travel and property restrictions; most of the remaining community then left, especially for the United States and Israel.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "After 1948, Syrian Jews faced surveillance and severe limits on travel and property, producing dangerous clandestine flight while much of the community remained effectively trapped. In 1992 the government lifted major travel and property restrictions; most of the remaining community then left, especially for the United States and Israel.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_syria_travel_1992", "title": "United States statement on Syria's 1992 lifting of Jewish travel and property restrictions", "url": "https://www.bush41library.gov/digital-research-room/finding-aid/public-papers/statement-press-secretary-fitzwater-syrias-lifting" }, { "id": "roumani_2003", "title": "Roumani 2003, “The Silent Refugees”", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1215/10474552-14-3-41" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-jewish-departure-syria", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "events_json_post_audit", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 56.2853799039, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.2853799039, "unknown_bound_high": 56.2853799039 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 55.1623285455, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.1623285455, "unknown_bound_high": 55.1623285455 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 63.9883888292, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.9883888292, "unknown_bound_high": 63.9883888292 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 37.8745061183, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.8745061183, "unknown_bound_high": 37.8745061183 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 67.7932400014, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.7932400014, "unknown_bound_high": 67.7932400014 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-jewish-departure-tunisia", "name": "Decolonization-era Jewish emigration from Tunisia", "start": 1956, "end": 1967, "date_label": "1956–1967", "region": "Tunisia, France, and Israel", "mechanism": "decolonization-era emigration under insecurity and institutional contraction", "agents": [ "Tunisian state and decolonizing institutions", "French and Israeli migration networks", "Tunisian Jewish households leaving in successive waves" ], "victims": [ "Tunisian Jewish communities diminished by insecurity, economic and institutional change, regional crisis, and migration" ], "agent_countries": [ "Tunisia", "France", "Israel" ], "victim_countries": [ "Tunisia" ], "container_countries": [ "Tunisia", "France", "Israel" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "post-audit addition", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Most Tunisian Jews left between independence and the aftermath of the 1967 war. Decolonization altered schools, courts, commerce, and citizenship expectations; the Bizerte crisis and anti-Jewish violence in 1967 accelerated departures to France and Israel.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Most Tunisian Jews left between independence and the aftermath of the 1967 war. Decolonization altered schools, courts, commerce, and citizenship expectations; the Bizerte crisis and anti-Jewish violence in 1967 accelerated departures to France and Israel.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_north_africa_laskier", "title": "Laskier, North African Jewry in the Twentieth Century", "url": "https://nyupress.org/9780814751299/north-african-jewry-in-the-twentieth-century/" }, { "id": "mena_north_africa_emancipation", "title": "Sorkin, Jewish Emancipation: Maghreb and Mashreq", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/princeton-scholarship-online/book/33984/chapter-abstract/288867341" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-jewish-departure-tunisia", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "events_json_post_audit", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 46.728604673, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6582598764, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 30.7595655384, "unknown_bound_high": 64.9335778942 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 29.8927969506, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5368957102, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.0493144488, "unknown_bound_high": 62.3597434284 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 74.1202600352, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.1202600352, "unknown_bound_high": 74.1202600352 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 21.2738140331, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.2738140331, "unknown_bound_high": 21.2738140331 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 64.0622733221, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9038663149, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.9037309122, "unknown_bound_high": 67.5170994216 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-jewish-departure-yemen-aden", "name": "The mass departure of Yemenite and Adeni Jews", "start": 1947, "end": 1950, "date_label": "1947–1950", "region": "Yemen, Aden, and Israel", "mechanism": "pogrom-driven and organized refugee migration", "agents": [ "Yemeni rulers and British authorities in Aden", "Jewish Agency, Israeli government, and Joint Distribution Committee organizers", "Yemenite and Adeni Jewish families undertaking the journey" ], "victims": [ "Yemenite and Adeni Jews exposed to anti-Jewish violence, hazardous transit, property loss, camp deprivation, and permanent uprooting" ], "agent_countries": [ "Yemen", "United Kingdom", "Israel" ], "victim_countries": [ "Yemen" ], "container_countries": [ "Yemen", "Israel" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "post-audit addition", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "contextual", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Anti-Jewish violence in Aden, insecurity and changing rule in Yemen, religious and Zionist hopes, and an organized Israeli–JDC airlift converged in a rapid mass departure. Families sold or abandoned property, crossed dangerous routes to Aden, and endured a badly managed transit in which hundreds died before more than 40,000 reached Israel.", "disputes": "", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Anti-Jewish violence in Aden, insecurity and changing rule in Yemen, religious and Zionist hopes, and an organized Israeli–JDC airlift converged in a rapid mass departure. Families sold or abandoned property, crossed dangerous routes to Aden, and endured a badly managed transit in which hundreds died before more than 40,000 reached Israel.", "sources": [ { "id": "mena_yemen_magic_carpet", "title": "Meir-Glitzenstein, Operation Magic Carpet: Constructing the Myth of the Magical Immigration of Yemenite Jews to Israel", "url": "https://cris.bgu.ac.il/en/publications/operation-magic-carpet-constructing-the-myth-of-the-magical-immig/" }, { "id": "roumani_2003", "title": "Roumani 2003, “The Silent Refugees”", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1215/10474552-14-3-41" } ], "rendered_case_id": "mena-jewish-departure-yemen-aden", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "events_json_post_audit", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 58.0292624881, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.0292624881, "unknown_bound_high": 58.0292624881 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 44.6090364964, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.6090364964, "unknown_bound_high": 44.6090364964 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 72.2112724886, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.2112724886, "unknown_bound_high": 72.2112724886 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 43.1989721121, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.1989721121, "unknown_bound_high": 43.1989721121 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 62.0649359105, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.0649359105, "unknown_bound_high": 62.0649359105 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prehistory-iberia-steppe-ancestry-turnover", "name": "Steppe-related migration and sex-biased ancestry turnover in Iberia", "start": -2500, "end": -2000, "date_label": "c. 2500-2000 BCE", "region": "Southwestern Europe (Iberian Peninsula)", "mechanism": "Migration, coexistence, admixture, and sex-biased ancestry turnover.", "agents": [ "Incoming people carrying steppe-related ancestry, associated in part with Bell Beaker networks" ], "victims": [ "Earlier Copper Age populations in Iberia; substantial local ancestry persisted, and no bounded displaced or victim cohort is demonstrated" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "high on migration, admixture, approximate autosomal ancestry change, and near-complete sampled Y-chromosome lineage turnover; unknown on the social process and unsupported for a bounded coerced-displacement or victim cohort", "summary": "Between roughly 2500 and 2000 BCE, incoming people carrying steppe-related ancestry coexisted and admixed with local populations in Iberia. Post-2000 BCE groups derived about 40 percent of their ancestry from the incoming population, while Y-chromosome lineages common in sampled Copper Age groups nearly ceased to be observed. This supports strongly sex-biased ancestry turnover, not documented killing, expulsion, or residential displacement.", "disputes": "Closest existing events: prehistory-beaker-britain-ancestry-turnover is explicitly Britain-only; prehistory-corded-ware-central-northern-europe covers central/northern Europe; prehistory-neolithic-mediterranean-cardial is the Neolithic arrival 6000-4500 BCE, three millennia earlier with different actors and direction. The Iberian turnover is a separate geography, a distinct incoming population route (via Beaker networks from central Europe rather than the Corded Ware zone), and a distinct chronology, so it is a parallel event unit to Beaker Britain, not a phase of it.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Olalde et al. 2019, 'The genomic history of the Iberian Peninsula over the past 8000 years', Science 363:1230-1234", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aav4040" }, { "id": "", "title": "Olalde et al. 2019 full text PDF (Reich Lab, Harvard Medical School)", "url": "https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/2019_Olalde_Science_IberiaTransect.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "post_v5_source_calibration": "The cited studies do not identify a bounded displaced cohort or destination. Separation from homeland is structurally inapplicable to the demonstrated evidence rather than a supported zero.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 9.2346953242, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.819694497, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.5696289384, "unknown_bound_high": 25.6001792427 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 51.6987422095, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8921511443, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.123092019, "unknown_bound_high": 56.907977593 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 19.3908251373, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.5442092693, "unknown_bound_high": 27.0673515536 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.3881019089, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2369025307, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.70016633, "unknown_bound_high": 88.0099132573 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 74.6958564511, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.6958564511, "unknown_bound_high": 74.6958564511 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prehistory-neolithic-southern-scandinavia-turnover", "name": "Funnel Beaker farmer colonization and hunter-gatherer replacement in southern Scandinavia", "start": -4000, "end": -3300, "date_label": "c. 4000-3300 BCE", "region": "Northern Europe (Denmark and southern Scandinavia)", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Funnel Beaker (TRB) farming populations of Anatolian-farmer ancestry expanding from the North European Plain" ], "victims": [ "Ertebølle and related western hunter-gatherer populations of Denmark and southern Scandinavia" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "Around 5,900 years ago farming populations of Anatolian-derived ancestry expanded into Denmark and southern Scandinavia, and Allentoft et al.'s 100-genome Danish transect shows the resident Ertebølle hunter-gatherer gene pool almost vanishing within a few generations, with parallel shifts in diet, land use, and landscape. The transition was delayed a millennium relative to central Europe and then abrupt, constituting the first of two near-total population turnovers in Neolithic Denmark.", "disputes": "Closest existing events: prehistory-neolithic-danubian-lbk covers the central European LBK expansion 5700-4900 BCE, which ended roughly a millennium before the Scandinavian transition began and stopped at the North European Plain; prehistory-neolithic-britain-ireland-turnover is a separate maritime geography. The second Danish turnover (Single Grave/steppe ancestry, ~2850 BCE) IS covered by prehistory-corded-ware-central-northern-europe, but the first (farmer-over-forager) turnover in Scandinavia belongs to no existing entry: different region, later chronology, and a discontinuous process from LBK.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Allentoft et al. 2024, '100 ancient genomes show repeated population turnovers in Neolithic Denmark', Nature 625:329-337", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06862-3" }, { "id": "", "title": "Allentoft et al. 2024, 'Population genomics of post-glacial western Eurasia', Nature 625:301-311", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06865-0" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 1.7880800588, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8955371256, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.6012920761, "unknown_bound_high": 12.0475795202 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.8384210079, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9239129213, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.1659313728, "unknown_bound_high": 15.7746392465 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 89.1533340223, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.1533340223, "unknown_bound_high": 89.1533340223 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 71.0819204371, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.0819204371, "unknown_bound_high": 71.0819204371 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 12.8059490456, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2369025307, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 79.3435086646 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 80.6987913082, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.904260572, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.9727351889, "unknown_bound_high": 82.5466779879 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prehistory-post-lapita-papuan-replacement-vanuatu", "name": "Post-Lapita Bismarck-related migration and ancestry turnover in Vanuatu", "start": -750, "end": -350, "date_label": "c. 750–350 BCE", "region": "Pacific and Oceania (Vanuatu / Remote Oceania)", "mechanism": "demographic expansion analogue", "agents": [ "Papuan-ancestry populations expanding from the Bismarck Archipelago" ], "victims": [ "Descendants of the first (Lapita-associated, East Asian-ancestry) settlers of Vanuatu" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "Ancient genomes support repeated Bismarck-related migrations and admixture during Vanuatu's main ancestry-turnover window, provisionally c. 750–350 BCE. First Remote Oceanian ancestry survived, and later ancestry varied among islands. These findings do not establish synchronized conquest, physical extinction, coercion, clearance, killing, land seizure, state absence, or labor arrangements.", "disputes": "Ancestry turnover does not by itself establish coercive displacement or land seizure. The process remains source-resolution-limited, with surviving First Remote Oceanian ancestry and later inter-island variation. It is separate from colonial New Hebrides history and initial Lapita settlement.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Posth et al. 2018, 'Language continuity despite population replacement in Remote Oceania', Nature Ecology & Evolution 2:731-740", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41559-018-0498-2" }, { "id": "", "title": "Lipson et al. 2018, 'Population Turnover in Remote Oceania Shortly after Initial Settlement', Current Biology 28:1157-1165", "url": "https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(18)30236-7" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Provisional source-resolution window of repeated Bismarck-related migrations and admixture, approximately 2700–2300 BP, not a synchronized conquest.", "kind": "provisional_ancestry_turnover_window" }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.1155520612, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.7776030618, "unknown_bound_high": 94.2223969382 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2011565441, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.1156544055, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-ottoman-surgun-balkan-colonization", "name": "Ottoman conquest of the Balkans: surgun transfers and Yoruk-Turkmen colonization of Rumelia", "start": 1352, "end": 1600, "date_label": "c. 1352-c. 1600", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Ottoman state", "Anatolian Turkish and Yoruk deportee-colonists" ], "victims": [ "Balkan Christian populations of Thrace, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Dobruja (displaced, transferred, or subordinated)", "Anatolian nomads and townspeople forcibly relocated by surgun" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "From the Gallipoli bridgehead (1354), the Ottoman state used surgun (forced transfer) to move Anatolian Turks and Yoruk nomads into conquered Thrace, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Dobruja, creating the durable Muslim-Turkish demographic belt of Ottoman Rumelia; after 1453 surgun also repopulated Istanbul with transferred Greeks, Armenians, Jews, and Muslims. Barkan's and Inalcik's classic studies establish deportation-colonization as a systematic instrument of Ottoman conquest.", "disputes": "medieval-beylik-ottoman-anatolian-settlement is explicitly Anatolia-only (1204-c.1500); eu-ottoman-settlement-cyprus covers only Cyprus from 1571; eu-ottoman-greek-deportations and mena-ottoman-circassian-refugee-settlement are late-empire events. The Rumelian colonization - the process that created the Balkan Muslim populations whose later expulsion IS registered (eu-balkan-wars-ethnic-cleansing, eu-greek-turkish-population-exchange) - has no entry: different geography, period, and settler stream from all of the above.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Halil Inalcik, 'Ottoman Methods of Conquest', Studia Islamica 2 (1954), 103-129", "url": "https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Ottoman-methods-of-conquest-Inalc%C4%B1k/136b2029215bce52e5b32886311bc019fe2350e9" }, { "id": "", "title": "G. Boykov et al., 'The Process of Sedentarization of Semi-nomadic Groups of the Yoruks in Parts of 16th Century Ottoman Rumeli' (DergiPark)", "url": "https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/906330" }, { "id": "", "title": "O. J. Schmitt (ed.), 'The Ottoman Conquest of the Balkans' (Austrian Academy of Sciences, 2016)", "url": "https://www.academia.edu/53469331/THE_OTTOMAN_CONQUEST_OF_THE_BALKANS_AND_ITS_HISTORICAL_ARENAS_ON_THE_RELATIONSHIP_BETWEEN_REGIONAL_AND_SUPRAREGIONAL_HISTORY" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.0488041029, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.0488041029, "unknown_bound_high": 85.0488041029 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 79.4049345621, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.4049345621, "unknown_bound_high": 79.4049345621 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.8610692879, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.8610692879, "unknown_bound_high": 75.8610692879 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 16.5003710581, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.5003710581, "unknown_bound_high": 16.5003710581 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 66.0810404509, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.0810404509, "unknown_bound_high": 66.0810404509 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 46.0018261731, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.0018261731, "unknown_bound_high": 46.0018261731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-norman-conquest-england-harrying", "name": "Norman conquest of England: aristocratic dispossession and the Harrying of the North", "start": 1066, "end": 1086, "date_label": "1066-1086", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "William I and the Norman, Breton, and Flemish aristocracy and settlers" ], "victims": [ "English (Anglo-Saxon) landholding class", "northern English peasantry" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "Within twenty years of Hastings the native English landholding class was almost wholly dispossessed - Domesday (1086) shows only roughly 5-8 percent of land still in English hands - and replaced by a French-speaking settler aristocracy with attendant boroughs and garrisons. The Harrying of the North (winter 1069-70) laid waste Yorkshire and neighboring shires (about two-thirds of Yorkshire vills recorded 'waste' in 1086), producing famine, a refugee crisis, and death-toll estimates traditionally up to 100,000; it is analyzed as a genocide case in recent scholarship.", "disputes": "eu-norman-conquest-settlement-wales (1067-1283) is explicitly the Welsh march; atlas-anglo-saxon-britain ends c. 600. The conquest of England itself - a different kingdom, chronology, and outcome (total elite land transfer plus a genocide-linked regional clearance) - is a separate event unit under the register's own splitting logic, and its absence is conspicuous given the Wales entry exists.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Marcus Meer, 'William the Conqueror's Harrying of the North, 1069-1070', in The Cambridge World History of Genocide, vol. 1 (2023)", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/william-the-conquerors-harrying-of-the-north-10691070/5BE39C5AD40691CBA4D57F97B6D51ECB" }, { "id": "", "title": "'The Harrying of the North', History Today", "url": "https://www.historytoday.com/archive/history-matters/harrying-north" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 59.6429361722, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.6429361722, "unknown_bound_high": 59.6429361722 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 73.9058515601, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.9058515601, "unknown_bound_high": 73.9058515601 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 49.3765703509, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.3765703509, "unknown_bound_high": 49.3765703509 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 24.9407407846, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.9407407846, "unknown_bound_high": 24.9407407846 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.4564944782, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.4564944782, "unknown_bound_high": 62.4564944782 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 67.631500937, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.631500937, "unknown_bound_high": 67.631500937 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-danelaw-scandinavian-settlement-england", "name": "Scandinavian conquest and settlement of the Danelaw", "start": 865, "end": 954, "date_label": "865-954", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Danish and Norse Great Army veterans and subsequent migrant waves" ], "victims": [ "English (Anglo-Saxon) landholders and communities of Northumbria, East Anglia, and eastern Mercia" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle records the Great Army 'sharing out' the land of Northumbria (876), Mercia (877), and East Anglia (880) and settling to plough it, dispossessing native holders; dense Scandinavian place-names and field-names mark the settled zone. Ancient-DNA studies (Gretzinger et al. 2022; Margaryan et al. 2020) support substantial Scandinavian migration into eastern England, including women and non-elites, beyond a thin conquering elite.", "disputes": "The register's Viking-age entries are all settlements of empty or near-empty land (atlas-norse-greenland, europe-norse-settlement-faroes); atlas-anglo-saxon-britain ends c. 600. No entry anywhere covers Norse conquest-settlement of an inhabited country - the Danelaw is the largest and best-evidenced such case, and it is not a phase of any registered event.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "'The Danelaw Reconsidered: Colonization and Conflict in Viking-Age England' (ResearchGate)", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/347728084_The_Danelaw_Reconsidered_Colonization_and_Conflict_in_Viking-Age_England" }, { "id": "", "title": "Gretzinger et al., 'The Anglo-Saxon migration and the formation of the early English gene pool', Nature 610 (2022)", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05247-2" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 18.2584915566, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.2584915566, "unknown_bound_high": 18.2584915566 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 39.1010624707, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.1010624707, "unknown_bound_high": 39.1010624707 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 56.4526621685, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.4526621685, "unknown_bound_high": 56.4526621685 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 18.8633990813, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.8633990813, "unknown_bound_high": 18.8633990813 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 46.3803880952, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8377125375, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.8534325998, "unknown_bound_high": 55.0821788533 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 43.5932415329, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.5932415329, "unknown_bound_high": 43.5932415329 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 } } }, { "event_id": "af-kariba-gwembe-tonga-resettlement", "name": "Kariba Dam forced resettlement of the Gwembe Tonga", "start": 1956, "end": 1959, "date_label": "1956–1959", "region": "Southern Africa (Zambezi Valley, Zambia/Zimbabwe)", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland", "British colonial administration", "Kariba hydroelectric scheme (Federal Power Board)" ], "victims": [ "Gwembe Tonga (~57,000 on both banks of the Zambezi)" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "To build the Kariba Dam for Copperbelt electricity, the Central African Federation forcibly resettled roughly 57,000 Gwembe Tonga from the Middle Zambezi Valley before the 1958 dam closure, killing resisters at Chisamu village (Chipepo chieftaincy). Resettlement land was insufficient and infertile, producing durable impoverishment tracked by the six-decade Colson-Scudder Gwembe Tonga Research Project, the founding longitudinal study of dam displacement.", "disputes": "No Kariba, Tonga, or Zambezi dam entry exists. Closest are af-nubian-aswan-dam-displacement (different river, states, and population) and atlas-southern-rhodesia (settler colonization of Zimbabwe, whose frame is land alienation for white farms, not the discrete 1956-59 hydro clearance that hit both the Northern and Southern Rhodesian banks). Kariba is the paradigm case of the dam-resettlement literature and a distinct linked process with its own actors, geography, and chronology.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Colson, The Social Consequences of Resettlement: The Impact of the Kariba Resettlement upon the Gwembe Tonga (Manchester UP, 1971; eHRAF)", "url": "https://ehrafworldcultures.yale.edu/cultures/fq12/documents/004" }, { "id": "", "title": "Chronic Uncertainty and Momentary Opportunity: A half century of adaptation among Zambia's Gwembe Tonga (Human Ecology, 2007)", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10745-006-9080-7" }, { "id": "", "title": "Thayer Scudder's Four Stage Framework, water resources dispossession and appropriation: the Kariba case (Int. J. Water Resources Development, 2021)", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349071701_Thayer_Scudder's_Four_Stage_Framework_water_resources_dispossession_and_appropriation_the_Kariba_case" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.4293063297, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.4293063297, "unknown_bound_high": 81.4293063297 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 51.5482680222, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.5482680222, "unknown_bound_high": 51.5482680222 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 1.8577131648, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.8577131648, "unknown_bound_high": 1.8577131648 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.8571211435, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.8571211435, "unknown_bound_high": 60.8571211435 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 35.9885485797, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.9885485797, "unknown_bound_high": 35.9885485797 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 66.3609950075, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.3609950075, "unknown_bound_high": 66.3609950075 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-volta-akosombo-resettlement", "name": "Akosombo Dam flooding and Volta Basin resettlement", "start": 1961, "end": 1966, "date_label": "1961–1966", "region": "West Africa (Ghana)", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "Government of Ghana (Nkrumah)", "Volta River Authority", "World Bank / US / UK financing", "Kaiser Aluminum (VALCO)" ], "victims": [ "~80,000 residents of ~700–740 Volta Basin farming and fishing villages" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "The Volta River Project's Akosombo Dam (built 1961-1965) created Lake Volta, the world's largest man-made reservoir by surface area, flooding about 740 villages and displacing more than 80,000 people into 52 hastily planned resettlement townships. Inadequate housing, land allocation, and compensation produced long-run dispossession documented in a substantial historiography.", "disputes": "The register contains no Ghana entry of any kind. No dam, resettlement, or development entry covers West Africa at all (nearest development entries are Nubia/Aswan and Nauru). Akosombo is one of the largest single displacement events in postcolonial African history and a fully distinct event unit.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Miescher, A Dam for Africa: Akosombo Stories from Ghana (Indiana UP, 2022)", "url": "https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv2q06gzt" }, { "id": "", "title": "Akosombo Dam: Engineering Facts and History (Institution of Civil Engineers)", "url": "https://www.ice.org.uk/what-is-civil-engineering/infrastructure-projects/akosombo-dam" }, { "id": "", "title": "Lessons about housing from Ghana's Volta River project 50 years on (The Conversation)", "url": "https://theconversation.com/lessons-about-housing-from-ghanas-volta-river-project-50-years-on-123920" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.341070962, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.341070962, "unknown_bound_high": 84.341070962 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 57.9395679754, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.9395679754, "unknown_bound_high": 57.9395679754 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 1.8577131648, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.8577131648, "unknown_bound_high": 1.8577131648 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.8571211435, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.8571211435, "unknown_bound_high": 60.8571211435 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 29.1799984721, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.1799984721, "unknown_bound_high": 29.1799984721 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 66.3609950075, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.3609950075, "unknown_bound_high": 66.3609950075 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-sardar-sarovar-narmada-displacement", "name": "Sardar Sarovar (Narmada) dam submergence and Adivasi displacement", "start": 1987, "end": 2019, "date_label": "1987–2019", "region": "South Asia (Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, India)", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "Government of India", "Gujarat and riparian state governments", "Narmada Control Authority", "World Bank (until 1993 withdrawal)" ], "victims": [ "41,000+ families (200,000+ people), majority Adivasi (Bhil, Bhilala, Tadvi) and riverine farming communities" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "Construction and staged reservoir filling of the Sardar Sarovar Dam submerged 245 villages across three states, displacing over 200,000 people, disproportionately Adivasis, with resettlement that scattered villages and rarely restored livelihoods. The Narmada Bachao Andolan resistance made it the world's emblematic dam-displacement controversy, forcing the World Bank's 1993 withdrawal; final gate closure in 2017-2019 completed the submergence.", "disputes": "The register has no development-displacement entry for India whatsoever (India entries are Partition, Kashmir, Andamans, Indo-Aryan migration). No dam entry covers South Asia. Sardar Sarovar is the flagship of an enormous specialist literature (India's dams displaced tens of millions; this is the best-documented single unit) and shares no actors, geography, or chronology with any existing entry.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Are Resettled Oustees from the Sardar Sarovar Dam Project Better Off Today? (NBER Working Paper 24423)", "url": "https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w24423/w24423.pdf" }, { "id": "", "title": "Displacement and Development: Construction of the Sardar Dam (Cultural Survival Quarterly)", "url": "https://www.culturalsurvival.org/publications/cultural-survival-quarterly/displacement-and-development-construction-sardar-dam" }, { "id": "", "title": "Re-placing home: Displacement and resettlement in India's Narmada Valley Dam Project (UCL thesis)", "url": "https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10100773/" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.2483537933, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.2483537933, "unknown_bound_high": 84.2483537933 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 66.9117146127, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.9117146127, "unknown_bound_high": 66.9117146127 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 52.7777484522, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.7777484522, "unknown_bound_high": 52.7777484522 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 35.9885485797, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.9885485797, "unknown_bound_high": 35.9885485797 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 72.0892990984, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.0892990984, "unknown_bound_high": 72.0892990984 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-serengeti-ngorongoro-maasai-evictions", "name": "Maasai conservation evictions from Serengeti, Ngorongoro, and Loliondo", "start": 1951, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1951–present", "region": "East Africa (northern Tanzania)", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "British colonial government of Tanganyika", "Government of Tanzania (TANAPA, Ngorongoro Conservation Area Authority)", "Frankfurt Zoological Society and foreign conservation funders", "Ortello Business Corporation and safari-hunting concessions" ], "victims": [ "Maasai pastoralists (thousands removed 1959; ~70,000+ targeted for relocation from Ngorongoro/Loliondo since 2022)" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "The 1951 creation and 1959 hardening of Serengeti National Park expelled Maasai pastoralists to the Ngorongoro Conservation Area on promises of permanent tenure, followed by successive restrictions and violent evictions in Loliondo and Ngorongoro (2009, 2013, 2017, 2022-present), including the 2022 shootings and an ongoing state relocation program to Msomera. It is the archetype of fortress-conservation displacement, continuously targeting the same population in the same landscape.", "disputes": "atlas-maasai-expansion (c. 1600-1870) covers the Maasai as expanding agents in the precolonial pastoralist age - different era, mechanism, and role (here they are victims of state conservation policy). af-tanzania-operation-vijiji covers the 1970s ujamaa villagization, a separate nationwide agrarian program. No East African conservation-eviction entry exists in the register at all.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Beyond just conservation: a history of Maasai dispossession (Minority Rights Group)", "url": "https://minorityrights.org/beyond-just-conservation-a-history-of-maasai-dispossession-2/" }, { "id": "", "title": "\"It's Like Killing Culture\": Human Rights Impacts of Relocating Tanzania's Maasai (Human Rights Watch, 2024)", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/2024/07/31/its-killing-culture/human-rights-impacts-relocating-tanzanias-maasai" }, { "id": "", "title": "How German government funds are used to dispossess Tanzania's Maasai in Serengeti land grab (Mongabay, 2024)", "url": "https://news.mongabay.com/2024/11/how-german-government-funds-and-tanzanian-conservation-agencies-fuel-the-serengeti-land-grab/" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.0292280465, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.0292280465, "unknown_bound_high": 83.0292280465 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 63.0191221939, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 63.0191221939, "unknown_bound_high": 63.0191221939 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 7.4308526592, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.4308526592, "unknown_bound_high": 7.4308526592 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 39.0667230183, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.0667230183, "unknown_bound_high": 39.0667230183 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 45.2743067178, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.2743067178, "unknown_bound_high": 45.2743067178 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 73.3666037605, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.3666037605, "unknown_bound_high": 73.3666037605 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-kaptai-dam-chakma-displacement", "name": "Kaptai Dam submergence and Chakma displacement", "start": 1957, "end": 1964, "date_label": "1957–1964", "region": "South Asia (Chittagong Hill Tracts, East Pakistan/Bangladesh)", "mechanism": "development/conservation displacement", "agents": [ "Government of Pakistan", "USAID financing", "Utah International (contractor)" ], "victims": [ "~100,000 hill people, ~70% Chakma; ~40,000 became refugees in India (Arunachal Pradesh), others fled to Burma" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "The Kaptai hydroelectric dam on the Karnaphuli River, completed 1962 with US funding, flooded 655 km2 including about 40 percent of the Chittagong Hill Tracts' arable land and the Chakma raja's seat at Rangamati, displacing roughly 100,000 people with negligible compensation. Some 40,000 Chakma crossed into India, where their descendants remain contested residents of Arunachal Pradesh; the 'Lake of Tears' grievance seeded the later CHT insurgency.", "disputes": "atlas-chittagong-hill-tracts begins in 1979 and codes the Bengali settler-transmigration program (settler colonization). The Kaptai displacement is 15+ years earlier, under a different state (Pakistan, not Bangladesh), with a different mechanism (reservoir inundation, not settlement), and produced its own cross-border refugee population - a distinct antecedent event unit, not a phase of the 1979-present entry.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "The Kaptai Dam: A Story of Disenfranchisement, Displacement, and Destruction (International Rivers)", "url": "https://www.internationalrivers.org/news/the-kaptai-dam-a-story-of-disenfranchisement-displacement-and-destruction/" }, { "id": "", "title": "People versus Power: The Geopolitics of Kaptai Dam in Bangladesh (Asia Dialogue / University of Nottingham)", "url": "https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/People-versus-Power_-The-Geopolitics-of-Kaptai-Dam-in-Bangladesh.pdf" }, { "id": "", "title": "Kaptai Dam (Parbatya Chattagram Jana Samhati Samiti documentation)", "url": "https://www.pcjss.org/kaptai-dam/" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.7366674441, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.7366674441, "unknown_bound_high": 79.7366674441 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 45.9563822114, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.9563822114, "unknown_bound_high": 45.9563822114 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 1.8577131648, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.8577131648, "unknown_bound_high": 1.8577131648 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.8571211435, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.8571211435, "unknown_bound_high": 60.8571211435 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 29.1799984721, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.1799984721, "unknown_bound_high": 29.1799984721 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 66.3609950075, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.3609950075, "unknown_bound_high": 66.3609950075 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-soviet-kalmyk-deportation", "name": "Soviet deportation of the Kalmyks (Operation Ulusy)", "start": 1943, "end": 1957, "date_label": "1943–1957", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Soviet state (NKVD)", "Stalin/Beria leadership" ], "victims": [ "Kalmyks (~93,000 deported)" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "On 28-31 December 1943 the NKVD deported over 93,000 Kalmyks in cattle wagons to special settlements in Siberia on a collective charge of collaboration; roughly half died in transit and exile. The Kalmyk ASSR was abolished and its territory partitioned among Astrakhan, Stavropol and Rostov, with survivors permitted return only after 1956-57.", "disputes": "The register enumerates Soviet nationality deportations one-by-one (ca-soviet-korean-deportation, ca-soviet-volga-german-deportation, ca-soviet-chechen-ingush-deportation, ca-soviet-meskhetian-turk-deportation, ca-crimean-tatar-deportation-resettlement, eu-soviet-baltic-deportations, modern-moldova-soviet-deportations) with no umbrella entry. Operation Ulusy was a separate NKVD operation against a distinct people and territory, with distinctive land consequences (ASSR abolished, territory partitioned and partly resettled), so it is a missing peer entry, not a phase of any registered one.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Guchinova, 'Deportation of the Kalmyks (1943–1956): Stigmatized Ethnicity' (Slavic Research Center, Hokkaido)", "url": "https://src-h.slav.hokudai.ac.jp/coe21/publish/no14_ses/07_guchinova.pdf" }, { "id": "", "title": "J. Otto Pohl, Ethnic Cleansing in the USSR, 1937–1949 (Greenwood, 1999)", "url": "https://apsuara.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/J._Otto_Pohl_Ethnic_Cleansing_in_the_USSR_1937.pdf" }, { "id": "", "title": "Norwegian Helsinki Committee, '80 years since the mass deportation of the Kalmyks'", "url": "https://nhc.no/en/28-december-1943-mass-deportation-of-the-kalmyks/" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.6482528547, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.6482528547, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6482528547 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 60.3795540236, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 60.3795540236, "unknown_bound_high": 60.3795540236 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.626943305, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.626943305, "unknown_bound_high": 64.626943305 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 95.2384288579, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 95.2384288579, "unknown_bound_high": 95.2384288579 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.5006854256, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.5006854256, "unknown_bound_high": 61.5006854256 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 27.1981608448, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1981608448, "unknown_bound_high": 27.1981608448 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-prigorodny-ingush-expulsion", "name": "Ingush expulsion from the Prigorodny district (Ossetian-Ingush conflict)", "start": 1992, "end": 2026, "date_label": "1992–present", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "North Ossetian forces and militias", "Russian MVD and army units" ], "victims": [ "Ingush residents of Prigorodny district (~34,000-60,000 expelled)" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "In October-November 1992, fighting over the Prigorodny district of North Ossetia ended with Ossetian forces, backed by Russian troops, killing several hundred Ingush civilians and expelling tens of thousands - documented by Human Rights Watch as ethnic cleansing, the first in post-Soviet Russia. Return has remained partial and contested for decades, leaving a durable demographic change.", "disputes": "Nearest registered events are ca-chechen-wars-displacement (different conflict, actors and territory) and ca-soviet-chechen-ingush-deportation (the 1944 deportation whose territorial aftermath caused this dispute, but a separate regime and half a century earlier). No register entry covers the 1992 Prigorodny expulsion; it is a self-contained conflict with its own actors, week-long violence, and lasting blocked return - a distinct event unit, not a phase.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, 'The Ingush-Ossetian Conflict in the Prigorodnyi Region' (1996)", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/1996/04/01/ingush-ossetian-conflict-prigorodnyi-regions" }, { "id": "", "title": "O'Loughlin, Ó Tuathail et al., 'The Localized Geopolitics of Displacement and Return in Eastern Prigorodnyy Rayon' (2008)", "url": "https://ibs.colorado.edu/waroutcomes/docs/oloughlin_etal_prigorodnyy_2008.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 66.7237220535, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.7237220535, "unknown_bound_high": 66.7237220535 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 31.3978345129, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.3978345129, "unknown_bound_high": 31.3978345129 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 73.5254796394, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.5254796394, "unknown_bound_high": 73.5254796394 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 75.9845789959, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.9845789959, "unknown_bound_high": 75.9845789959 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.3808502277, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.3808502277, "unknown_bound_high": 52.3808502277 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 43.3170140822, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.3170140822, "unknown_bound_high": 43.3170140822 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-northwest-pakistan-counterinsurgency-displacement", "name": "Northwest Pakistan counterinsurgency displacement (Swat and FATA)", "start": 2008, "end": 2016, "date_label": "2008–2016", "region": "Central and South Asia", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Pakistan Army", "Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and allied militants" ], "victims": [ "Pashtun civilians of Swat, Bajaur, Mohmand, South and North Waziristan, Khyber (~5 million cumulatively displaced)" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "Successive Pakistani military offensives against the Pakistani Taliban - Swat/Malakand in 2009 (up to ~3 million displaced within weeks, the largest population movement in Pakistan since 1947) and Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan in 2014 (~1-1.5 million) - emptied whole agencies of FATA repeatedly between 2008 and 2016. Returns were slow, managed, and to badly damaged areas.", "disputes": "Nearest entries are asia-balochistan-counterinsurgency-displacement (different region, different insurgency, different victim population) and the Afghanistan conflict entries (different country). Nothing in the register covers the KP/FATA displacement despite it being among the largest conflict displacements of the 2010s; it is a distinct linked process with continuous actors (Pakistan Army vs TTP), geography, and chronology.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Amnesty International, 'As if Hell Fell on Me: The Human Rights Crisis in Northwest Pakistan' (2010)", "url": "https://www.amnesty.org/es/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/asa330042010en.pdf" }, { "id": "", "title": "International Crisis Group, 'Pakistan: The Worsening IDP Crisis' (2010)", "url": "https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/1279235/1226_1284978139_b111-pakistan-the-worsening-idp-crisis.pdf" }, { "id": "", "title": "IDMC, 'Pakistan: Millions of IDPs and returnees face continuing crisis' (ReliefWeb)", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-millions-idps-and-returnees-face-continuing-crisis-profile-internal" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.5175232591, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.5175232591, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5175232591 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 28.520717977, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.520717977, "unknown_bound_high": 28.520717977 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 1.8577131648, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.8577131648, "unknown_bound_high": 1.8577131648 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 20.3201573767, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.3201573767, "unknown_bound_high": 20.3201573767 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.9069495733, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.9069495733, "unknown_bound_high": 50.9069495733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 16.8347157801, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.8347157801, "unknown_bound_high": 16.8347157801 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-pakistan-afghan-mass-forced-returns", "name": "Pakistan's mass coerced returns and deportations of Afghan refugees", "start": 2016, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2016–present", "region": "Central and South Asia", "mechanism": "expulsion/deportation/ethnic cleansing", "agents": [ "Government of Pakistan", "Pakistani police and security forces" ], "victims": [ "Afghan refugees and asylum seekers in Pakistan (hundreds of thousands per wave; >800,000 in 2023-24, millions cumulatively)" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "Pakistan has driven Afghan refugees - many resident for decades or born in Pakistan - back to Afghanistan through waves of coercion: roughly 600,000 in 2016-17, then the 'Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan' from October 2023 which pushed out over 800,000 within months through mass detention, property seizure and document destruction, with further surges through 2025-26 targeting even registered refugees. UN experts and HRW document returns into persecution and destitution under Taliban rule.", "disputes": "Nearest entries are modern-afghanistan-post-2001-conflict-displacement (ends 2021 and covers war displacement inside Afghanistan, not host-state expulsion) and the other Afghan conflict entries. The register treats host-state mass expulsions as their own units elsewhere (af-uganda-asian-expulsion, mena-kuwait-palestinian-expulsion, modern-ethiopia-eritrea-reciprocal-expulsions), so Pakistan's state-directed expulsion of Afghans is a missing peer. Iran's parallel mass expulsion (>1.2M in 2025) is a separate-actor unit also absent; flagged in angle notes.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Human Rights Watch, 'Pakistan: Widespread Abuses Force Afghans to Leave' (Nov 2023)", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/11/28/pakistan-widespread-abuses-force-afghans-leave" }, { "id": "", "title": "Human Rights Watch, 'Pakistan: Surge in Forced Returns of Afghan Refugees' (Apr 2026)", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/news/2026/04/21/pakistan-surge-in-forced-returns-of-afghan-refugees" }, { "id": "", "title": "OHCHR, 'UN experts call for protection of Afghan nationals in Pakistan' (Dec 2023)", "url": "https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/12/un-experts-call-protection-afghan-nationals-pakistan" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.8072140883, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.8072140883, "unknown_bound_high": 93.8072140883 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 33.9448217492, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.9448217492, "unknown_bound_high": 33.9448217492 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 68.0480266996, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8152528685, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.4763489647, "unknown_bound_high": 73.9510621117 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 51.7518562289, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.7518562289, "unknown_bound_high": 51.7518562289 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 78.2820862422, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.2820862422, "unknown_bound_high": 78.2820862422 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ca-russo-ukrainian-war-displacement", "name": "Russo-Ukrainian war mass displacement", "start": 2014, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2014–present", "region": "Europe and Eurasia", "mechanism": "conflict displacement", "agents": [ "Russian Federation armed forces", "Russian-backed separatist authorities" ], "victims": [ "Ukrainian civilians (~6.5 million refugees abroad, ~3.7 million IDPs as of 2023-24; ~1.5 million IDPs in the 2014-21 Donbas phase)" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "Russia's war on Ukraine displaced about 1.5 million people internally after the 2014 Donbas invasion, then the 2022 full-scale invasion drove the fastest refugee outflow in Europe since WWII: nearly a quarter of Ukraine's population displaced within a month, stabilizing around 6.5 million refugees (93 percent in Europe) plus 3.7 million IDPs. Bombardment, occupation and frontline destruction continue to prevent return to wide areas.", "disputes": "The only 2022-era Ukraine entry, ca-russian-occupation-ukraine-forced-transfer, is scoped by its own summary to occupation-zone transfers into Russia, property seizure, passportization and child deportation - it does not cover the westward refugee flight and internal displacement, which is a different direction, driver and population. The register gives comparable wars a general conflict-displacement entry alongside occupation-specific ones (modern-syria-war-displacement, modern-yemen-war-displacement, modern-korean-war-civilian-displacement), so the general Russo-Ukrainian war displacement is a missing unit, not a phase of the forced-transfer entry.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "UNHCR Operational Data Portal, Ukraine Refugee Situation", "url": "https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine" }, { "id": "", "title": "IOM/Migration Data Portal, 'Ukraine crisis movements' (refugee and IDP tracking incl. DTM)", "url": "https://www.migrationdataportal.org/ukraine/crisis-movements" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.6911242212, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.6911242212, "unknown_bound_high": 84.6911242212 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 28.0406552119, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.0406552119, "unknown_bound_high": 28.0406552119 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 30.7566832749, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.7566832749, "unknown_bound_high": 30.7566832749 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 41.7266389215, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.7266389215, "unknown_bound_high": 41.7266389215 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 42.8441318136, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.8441318136, "unknown_bound_high": 42.8441318136 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-zanzibar-omani-plantation-slavery-slave-trade", "name": "Omani Zanzibar clove plantation slavery and the East African slave trade", "start": 1810, "end": 1897, "date_label": "c. 1810s–1897", "region": "Zanzibar, Pemba, and the East African interior", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "Omani Busaidi sultanate of Zanzibar", "Omani Arab planter class", "Swahili-Arab caravan traders (e.g. Tippu Tip) and allied raiders" ], "victims": [ "hundreds of thousands enslaved from the interior (Manyema, Lake Malawi corridor, Yao-raided peoples)", "Hadimu and Tumbatu of Zanzibar expropriated from fertile western lands" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "After the Omani court relocated to Zanzibar, a clove plantation economy expanded until enslaved people made up as much as two-thirds of the archipelago's population, while the indigenous Hadimu were expropriated from the fertile west of the island. Feeding the plantations and Indian Ocean export markets, caravan raiding depopulated swathes of the interior from the Lake Malawi corridor to Manyema until the 1873 market closure and 1897 legal abolition. This is the direct antecedent of the property order overturned in the registered 1964 revolution entry.", "disputes": "Greps for zanzibar/oman/clove/swahili return only modern-zanzibar-revolution-expulsions, which begins in 1964. The four af-transatlantic-slave-removal-* entries cover Atlantic-facing exports (the southeast entry is the Mozambique Atlantic trade), and af-lake-chad-slave-raiding-displacement covers the trans-Saharan Chad basin; the Indian Ocean/Zanzibar system — a different polity, route, destination, and plantation complex with its own local land expropriation — is covered nowhere. It is the largest slave system absent from the register.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Abdul Sheriff, Slaves, Spices and Ivory in Zanzibar: Integration of an East African Commercial Empire into the World Economy, 1770–1873", "url": "https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2573877-slaves-spices-and-ivory-in-zanzibar" }, { "id": "", "title": "Cloves, Slaves, and British Imperialism: The Rise and Fall of Omani Plantation Slavery in Nineteenth-Century Zanzibar", "url": "https://www.academia.edu/43421333/Cloves_Slaves_and_British_Imperialism_The_Rise_and_Fall_of_Omani_Plantation_Slavery_in_Nineteenth_Century_Zanzibar" }, { "id": "", "title": "Slavery in Zanzibar — Wikipedia (synthesizing Cooper, Plantation Slavery on the East Coast of Africa, and Sheriff)", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavery_in_Zanzibar" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 44.4936384852, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.4936384852, "unknown_bound_high": 44.4936384852 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 70.5801014392, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 70.5801014392, "unknown_bound_high": 70.5801014392 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 54.7556755559, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.7556755559, "unknown_bound_high": 54.7556755559 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.2141732085, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.2141732085, "unknown_bound_high": 31.2141732085 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 84.6562714546, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.6562714546, "unknown_bound_high": 84.6562714546 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 50.5415423469, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.5415423469, "unknown_bound_high": 50.5415423469 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "af-kololo-conquest-barotseland", "name": "Kololo migration, conquest, and rule of Barotseland", "start": 1838, "end": 1864, "date_label": "c. 1838–1864", "region": "Upper Zambezi floodplain, western Zambia", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Kololo (Sotho-speaking migrant nation under Sebetwane, later Sekeletu)" ], "victims": [ "Lozi/Luyana kingdom (royals driven into northern exile)", "Subiya, Toka and other Zambezi peoples raided and absorbed" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "Displaced from the highveld during the Difaqane, the entire Kololo nation migrated over 1,500 km, conquered the Lozi kingdom of the Zambezi floodplain around 1838–40, drove the Luyana royal line into exile, and ruled as a settled conqueror population until the 1864 Lozi restoration massacred the Kololo men. The interlude permanently replaced the Luyana language with Sotho-derived siLozi — a durable demographic-cultural consequence of conquest-with-settlement, not mere raiding.", "disputes": "Closest entry af-highveld-difaqane-refugee-state-formation is explicitly the highveld, c. 1810–1840; the Kololo conquest happened 1,500 km north of it, after it, against different victims. The register's own precedent splits Difaqane offshoot conquests into separate units — af-ngoni-malawi-zambia-conquests and af-ngoni-tanzania-conquests — and the Kololo conquest of Barotseland is the exact same class of event, with an even clearer settlement outcome (language replacement), yet has no entry.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Eric Flint, 'Trade and Politics in Barotseland during the Kololo Period', Journal of African History", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-african-history/article/abs/trade-and-politics-in-barotseland-during-the-kololo-period1/E1BD18C5A3AAC46DC07CA5365827ECD4" }, { "id": "", "title": "Kololo — Encyclopaedia Britannica", "url": "https://www.britannica.com/topic/Kololo" }, { "id": "", "title": "The Kololo Kingdom in the Upper Zambezi (drawing on Mutumba Mainga, Bulozi under the Luyana Kings)", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374807297_The_Kololo_Kingdom_in_the_Upper_Zambezi" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 19.0351081775, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.0351081775, "unknown_bound_high": 19.0351081775 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 17.3280005203, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.3280005203, "unknown_bound_high": 17.3280005203 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.5567640015, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.5567640015, "unknown_bound_high": 64.5567640015 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 20.3930260749, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.3930260749, "unknown_bound_high": 20.3930260749 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 45.9443809004, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.9443809004, "unknown_bound_high": 45.9443809004 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 15.6639410586, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.6639410586, "unknown_bound_high": 15.6639410586 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "af-southern-sudan-zariba-slave-raiding", "name": "Turco-Egyptian and Khartoumer zariba slave frontier in southern Sudan", "start": 1840, "end": 1898, "date_label": "c. 1840–1898", "region": "Bahr el-Ghazal, Upper Nile, and Equatoria (South Sudan)", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "Turco-Egyptian regime and Khartoum-based merchant companies (Khartoumers)", "al-Zubayr Rahma Mansur's zariba network", "Mahdist state raiders after 1885" ], "victims": [ "Dinka, Azande, Kresh, Bongo and other peoples of Bahr el-Ghazal and Equatoria — large-scale enslavement and documented regional depopulation" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "After Egypt opened the White Nile (1839–41), Khartoum-based ivory-and-slave companies built networks of fortified zaribas across Bahr el-Ghazal and Equatoria; al-Zubayr Pasha's private empire alone exported tens of thousands and contemporaries described whole districts depopulated. Raiding continued under Mahdist rule until 1898, seeding the north-south slaving relationship that underlies the registered modern Sudan conflicts. Communities were removed as slaves and survivors driven into defensive refuge zones.", "disputes": "The register's Sudan entries are all modern conflicts (modern-darfur-ethnic-cleansing-displacement, modern-sudan-war-displacement-2023, modern-south-sudan-civil-war-displacement) plus af-nubian-aswan-dam-displacement. The closest mechanism match, af-lake-chad-slave-raiding-displacement, is explicitly the Lake Chad basin and trans-Saharan sale — a different geography, actor set, and trade circuit. The Nile-basin zariba frontier, one of the 19th century's most destructive slaving systems, appears nowhere.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "John Ralph Willis, 'Al-Zubayr Pasha and the Zariba Based Slave Trade in the Bahr al-Ghazal 1855–1879' (Taylor & Francis)", "url": "https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/mono/10.4324/9780203988176-12/al-zubayr-pasha-zariba-based-slave-trade-bahr-al-ghazal-1855%E2%80%931879-john-ralph-willis" }, { "id": "", "title": "Zubair Pasha — Oxford Research Encyclopedia of African History", "url": "https://oxfordre.com/africanhistory/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190277734.001.0001/acrefore-9780190277734-e-969" }, { "id": "", "title": "Al-Zubayr Rahma Mansur — Wikipedia (with Richard Gray, A History of the Southern Sudan 1839–1889 in bibliography)", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rahman_Mansur_az_Zubayr" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 29.4852311648, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.6947302132, "unknown_bound_high": 33.7672651089 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 55.8830219883, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2985059093, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.6814122954, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8308213612 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 61.1737014753, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6347085099, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 38.8274689093, "unknown_bound_high": 75.3566179179 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 12.3004793337, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.445800937, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4835652126, "unknown_bound_high": 60.9034715118 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 74.7470598389, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.4535900226, "unknown_bound_high": 87.0086367288 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 3.9340218193, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6109122516, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 2.4033421274, "unknown_bound_high": 41.3121169702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ussr-dekulakization-special-settlements", "name": "Soviet dekulakization and the special settlement system", "start": 1930, "end": 1954, "date_label": "1930–1954", "region": "Soviet Union (European Russia and Ukraine to the North, Urals, Siberia, and Kazakhstan)", "mechanism": "state resettlement/internal colonization", "agents": [ "Soviet state (OGPU/NKVD)", "Communist Party collectivization apparatus" ], "victims": [ "Peasant families labeled kulaks (Russian, Ukrainian, Belarusian, and other Soviet peasants)" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "During collectivization the Soviet state deported roughly 1.8–2.1 million peasants branded as kulaks, confiscating their land and property and exiling whole families to 'special settlements' in the North, Urals, Siberia, and Kazakhstan. The deportees were used as unfree labor to colonize remote timber, mining, and agricultural regions under police-administered settlement regimes that formed the foundation of the Gulag system. The special-settler regime for former kulaks was only dismantled in stages ending in 1954.", "disputes": "The register covers only ethnic/national Soviet deportations (Crimean Tatar, Chechen-Ingush, Korean, Volga German, Meskhetian Turk, Baltic, Moldovan) plus the Kazakh famine; none covers the class-based dekulakization system of 1930-1933 and its special-settlement regime. Viola analyzes the special settlements as internal colonial settlements, fitting the state resettlement/internal colonization family; ~1.8-2.1 million deportees make it a major distinct event-unit.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Lynne Viola, The Unknown Gulag: The Lost World of Stalin's Special Settlements (Oxford University Press, 2007)", "url": "https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-unknown-gulag-9780195385090" }, { "id": "", "title": "Pavel Polian, Against Their Will: The History and Geography of Forced Migrations in the USSR (CEU Press, 2004)", "url": "https://books.google.com/books/about/Against_Their_Will.html?id=ofwOEAAAQBAJ" }, { "id": "", "title": "Fujimura on Viola, 'The Unknown Gulag' (H-Net review)", "url": "https://networks.h-net.org/node/18732/reviews/19005/fujimura-viola-unknown-gulag-lost-world-stalins-special-settlements" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.0469607786, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 96.0469607786, "unknown_bound_high": 96.0469607786 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 73.0846149098, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.0846149098, "unknown_bound_high": 73.0846149098 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 65.4615480407, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.4615480407, "unknown_bound_high": 65.4615480407 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 46.6540067929, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.6540067929, "unknown_bound_high": 46.6540067929 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 79.1546841258, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.1546841258, "unknown_bound_high": 79.1546841258 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 45.5244550405, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.5244550405, "unknown_bound_high": 45.5244550405 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "am-mexico-yaqui-war-deportation", "name": "Porfirian war on the Yaquis: Yaqui Valley seizure and deportation to Yucatán", "start": 1900, "end": 1910, "date_label": "c. 1900–1910", "region": "Latin America and the Caribbean", "mechanism": "enslavement/labor removal", "agents": [ "Porfirian Mexican federal government and army", "Sonoran state authorities and hacendados", "Yucatán henequen planters" ], "victims": [ "Yaqui (Yoeme) people of Sonora" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "In the late Porfiriato the Mexican state waged war on the Yaquis of Sonora, seized and parceled the irrigable Yaqui Valley for developers and colonists, and deported thousands of captured Yaquis—combatants and noncombatants alike—to coerced labor on Yucatán's henequen plantations. Deportation conditions and plantation labor were lethal, families were deliberately broken up, and many Yaquis fled to Arizona; the system collapsed only with the 1910 Revolution.", "disputes": "Mexico appears in the register only as a territory taken from (US Southwest events) or a refugee destination; no event has Mexico as perpetrator and none touches the Yaquis. The Porfirian campaign is a distinct event-unit: continuous actors (Diaz regime, Sonoran state, henequen planters), mechanism (mass deportation into coerced plantation labor plus seizure and settler-development of the Yaqui Valley), geography, and chronology.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Evelyn Hu-DeHart, Yaqui Resistance and Survival: The Struggle for Land and Autonomy, 1821–1910 (University of Wisconsin Press)", "url": "https://www.bibliovault.org/BV.book.epl?ISBN=9780299311049" }, { "id": "", "title": "Evelyn Hu-DeHart, 'Development and Rural Rebellion: Pacification of the Yaquis in the Late Porfiriato', Hispanic American Historical Review 54:1 (1974)", "url": "https://read.dukeupress.edu/hahr/article/54/1/72/151360/Development-and-Rural-Rebellion-Pacification-of" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 78.2681243765, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.2681243765, "unknown_bound_high": 78.2681243765 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 80.8317662587, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.8317662587, "unknown_bound_high": 80.8317662587 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.4417060906, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.4417060906, "unknown_bound_high": 75.4417060906 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 53.3102311633, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.3102311633, "unknown_bound_high": 53.3102311633 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 80.5990848913, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.5990848913, "unknown_bound_high": 80.5990848913 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 50.7125088916, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.7125088916, "unknown_bound_high": 50.7125088916 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 } } }, { "event_id": "am-argentina-chaco-conquest-reducciones", "name": "Argentine conquest of the Gran Chaco and confinement on reducciones", "start": 1884, "end": 1917, "date_label": "1884–1917", "region": "Latin America and the Caribbean", "mechanism": "conquest with settlement", "agents": [ "Argentine army", "Argentine national government and territorial administrations", "Sugar ingenios of Salta and Jujuy and agricultural settlers" ], "victims": [ "Qom (Toba)", "Wichí", "Moqoit (Mocoví)", "Pilagá and other Gran Chaco peoples" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "gap-scan candidate (not in audit register)", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "", "confidence": "", "summary": "Beginning with General Victorica's 1884 campaign, the Argentine army conquered and occupied the Gran Chaco, killing and displacing Qom, Wichí, Moqoit, Pilagá, and other peoples and opening their lands to ranchers, loggers, and cotton colonists. Survivors were confined on state reducciones such as Napalpí (founded 1911) and channeled into coerced seasonal labor for the sugar ingenios of Salta and Jujuy under near-servile conditions. The campaign's distinct chronology and geography separate it from the earlier Conquest of the Desert in the Pampas and Patagonia.", "disputes": "The register itself settles the overlap question: atlas-argentina-frontiers (Pampas & Patagonia, 1867-1914) states 'The Chaco frontier followed a distinct chronology not folded in here', and atlas-mennonite-chaco covers the Paraguayan Chaco from 1927, a different state, settler group, and period. The 1884-1917 Argentine campaigns, confinement of Qom/Wichi/Moqoit on reducciones like Napalpi (1911), and coerced labor in Salta-Jujuy sugar ingenios form a distinct conquest-with-settlement/labor-removal unit.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "", "sources": [ { "id": "", "title": "Gastón R. Gordillo, Landscapes of Devils: Tensions of Place and Memory in the Argentinean Chaco (Duke University Press, 2004)", "url": "https://www.dukeupress.edu/landscapes-of-devils" }, { "id": "", "title": "Nicolás Iñigo Carrera, 'La violencia como potencia económica: Chaco 1870–1940', as engaged in 'Capitalismo y pueblos indígenas en el Chaco argentino', Antropologías del Sur", "url": "https://revistas.academia.cl/index.php/rantros/article/view/788" }, { "id": "", "title": "'Revisitando Napalpí: por una antropología dialógica de la acción social y la violencia', Runa 31:1 (SciELO Argentina)", "url": "https://www.scielo.org.ar/pdf/runa/v31n1/v31n1a04.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": null, "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "gapscan", "date_repair": "second-pass explicit numeric bounds from existing date_label", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 76.4396100696, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.4396100696, "unknown_bound_high": 76.4396100696 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 84.5705800261, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.5705800261, "unknown_bound_high": 84.5705800261 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 77.2994192554, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.2994192554, "unknown_bound_high": 77.2994192554 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 47.2967781634, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.2967781634, "unknown_bound_high": 47.2967781634 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 78.0337617372, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 78.0337617372 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 66.8925726132, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.8925726132, "unknown_bound_high": 66.8925726132 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-roman-apuan-ligures-resettlement", "name": "Forced resettlement of Apuan Ligurians to Samnium and probable Roman reuse at Luna", "start": -180, "end": -177, "date_label": "180–177 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-directed demographic remaking with probable successor settlement (provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman commissioners and citizen colonists at Luna" ], "victims": [ "Apuan Ligurian communities" ], "summary": "The Roman Republic compelled Apuan Ligurian communities in Livy’s two reported family transfers to move from northwestern Italy to commissioned allotments in Samnium in 180–179 BCE; in 177 BCE, 2,000 reported Roman citizens received allotments at Luna on land identified as Apuan, a probable successor use of part of the source territory rather than a parcel-certain replacement.", "confidence": "high on the forced family transfers and Luna foundation; medium on demographic detail and the source-land linkage; low on parcel-for-parcel replacement", "sources": [ { "title": "Livy 40: Apuan transfers to Samnium", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/E-Books/misc/Livy/HOR_40.htm" }, { "title": "Livy 41: Luna allotments on Ligurian land", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/E-Books/misc/Livy/HOR_41.htm" }, { "title": "Antiquity: Forced resettlement as an imperial strategy", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/antiquity/article/forced-resettlement-as-an-imperial-strategy-evidence-from-the-ligures-baebiani-in-roman-samnium/D6747A0D2896CD1639B8CD7DC028A8DF" }, { "title": "Samnites, Ligurians and Romans", "url": "https://api.repository.cam.ac.uk/server/api/core/bitstreams/806afc0c-2b1e-4400-a8e6-0d0ea78b79bc/content" }, { "title": "Museo archeologico nazionale e zona archeologica di Luni", "url": "https://luni.cultura.gov.it/en/servizi-educativi" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "count_neutral_recode", "roman_source_brief": "ANCIENT_CODING_BRIEFS.md#ancient-roman-apuan-ligures-resettlement", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not resolve the labor relationship between the new Ligurian communities and any remaining Samnite population at destination." }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports a destination-zone settler share." }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "Economic-development and market integration are argued, but the event evidence does not establish an export-share bin." }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "The Livian migrant claim is not paired with a reliable destination population estimate." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No population-genetic or equivalent demographic estimate separates Ligurian and earlier Samnite contribution at the destination." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 3 follows Livy's presentation of a mass community transfer, but the fraction of all Apuans removed is not independently known." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The resettlement appears permanent and no large return is attested, but a surviving explicit return-ban instrument is not known." }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 1 records local Roman colonial privileges at Luna under continuing Roman sovereignty. The transferred Apuan communities did not become sovereign, and Luna did not become an autonomous settler polity." } ], "roman_recode_audit": { "prior_event_window": "180-179 BCE", "revised_event_window": "180-177 BCE", "new_phase": "probable Roman citizen-colony use at Luna on Apuan Ligurian land", "count_effect": 0, "score_changes": { "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture": { "from": 0, "to": 1, "reason": "Luna adds a documented Roman settler community with local colonial privileges under continuing Roman sovereignty; it does not create an autonomous settler state." } }, "unchanged_score_count": 59, "scope_limit": "Luna is a probable source-land outcome, not proof that its allotments correspond parcel-for-parcel to the households transferred to Samnium." }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.0712536525, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.0712536525, "unknown_bound_high": 87.0712536525 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 51.3108116285, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.9259243529, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.5099300528, "unknown_bound_high": 54.9174947649 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 84.7081130947, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7761446347, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 65.7457474928, "unknown_bound_high": 88.1312840242 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.5585476468, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5647834195, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.2024636187, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7241216707 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 16.7809869001, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 16.7809869001 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 61.6894405654, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.6894405654, "unknown_bound_high": 61.6894405654 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "late-antique-sasanian-antioch-weh-antioch", "name": "Khosrow I's deportation from Antioch to Weh-Antioch-Khosrow", "start": 540, "end": 540, "date_label": "540 CE", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "state-directed demographic remaking (provisional)", "agents": [ "Sasanian Empire under Khosrow I" ], "victims": [ "Captives from Antioch" ], "summary": "Khosrow I transferred a substantial but unquantifiable body of captives from Antioch to a purpose-built city modeled on Antioch near Ctesiphon; Antioch itself survived and recovered.", "confidence": "high event; medium-low scale and status detail", "sources": [ { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica: Deportations", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/deportations/" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica: Ctesiphon", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/ctesiphon/" }, { "title": "Jonas Borsch, God's Wrath over Antioch, 525–540 CE: Beginning of the End? (2023)", "url": "https://online.ucpress.edu/SLA/article/7/2/201/196341/God-s-Wrath-over-Antioch-525-540-CEBeginning-of", "doi": "10.1525/sla.2023.7.2.201" }, { "title": "Procopius, Wars", "locator": "2.14; 540 transfer, purpose-built settlement near Ctesiphon, amenities, direct royal status, charioteers and musicians", "role": "ancient_narrative_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_49_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Antioch to Weh-Antioch-Khosrow" } } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "metadata_scope_qualifier": "Procopius reports a purpose-built city near Ctesiphon, amenities and direct royal status, not individual property titles or universal privilege. Transported charioteers and musicians are a selected occupational subset, not a cohort-wide labor measure. Weh-Antioch remains archaeologically unlocated; the source city survived and rebuilt.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.7525067277, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8028336043, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.0704964895, "unknown_bound_high": 95.7871360629 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.24935705, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3911855937, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.4391957598, "unknown_bound_high": 81.3206363865 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 67.0684213127, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.7534236927, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8636765225 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-mauryan-kalinga-war-removal", "name": "Mauryan conquest of Kalinga: killing and mass captive removal", "start": -261, "end": -261, "date_label": "c. 261/260 BCE", "region": "South Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal without demonstrated replacement (provisional)", "agents": [ "Mauryan Empire under Aśoka" ], "victims": [ "People of Kalinga" ], "summary": "Aśoka's Major Rock Edict XIII makes large, rounded royal claims that the conquest of Kalinga killed about 100,000 people, carried away about 150,000, and caused many more deaths; it provides no secure captive destinations or replacement population.", "confidence": "high event; low destination and demographic denominator detail", "sources": [ { "title": "Aśoka, Major Rock Edict XIII, Hultzsch or Sircar edition", "locator": "Recension and printed-page locator must resolve through the prepared source packet; do not substitute a bibliographic page", "role": "royal_inscription_edition_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_40_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and provenance corrections" } }, { "title": "Aśoka Documents, Major Rock Edicts XII–XIII", "locator": "existing access reference; not a substitute for the controlling edition/recension locator", "role": "edition_access_reference", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_40_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and provenance corrections" }, "url": "https://www.mq.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/22954/51265.pdf" }, { "title": "Providing for the Buddha", "locator": "chronology, archaeology or interpretation only as specifically supported", "role": "modern_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_40_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and provenance corrections" }, "url": "https://www.persee.fr/doc/arasi_0004-3958_2008_num_63_1_1665" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Approximate alternative chronology; −261 is a presentation coordinate and does not remove the approximation.", "kind": "approximate_alternative", "alternative_years": [ -261, -260 ] }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.9353824157, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.352574237, "unknown_bound_high": 92.4251091327 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.1613855152, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4164541451, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.3988428278, "unknown_bound_high": 61.7534283148 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 16.3199344684, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.3199344684, "unknown_bound_high": 16.3199344684 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 33.4097557178, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 56.8638944401 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 67.0684213127, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.7534236927, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8636765225 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-hittite-mursili-arzawa-deportation", "name": "Muršili II's conquest of Arzawa and mass deportation to Hatti", "start": -1319, "end": -1318, "date_label": "Muršili II, regnal Years 3-4 (c. 1319-1318 BCE)", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "conquest and incorporation with state-directed removal (provisional)", "agents": [ "Hittite Empire under Muršili II" ], "victims": [ "Arzawan populations taken as NAM.RA transportees" ], "summary": "Muršili II's annals claim approximately 65,000–66,000 captives from conquered Arzawa were carried into Hatti, while Arzawa was politically reorganized under Hittite subordinate polities.", "confidence": "high event; medium chronology; low demographic denominator and destination detail", "sources": [ { "title": "Contacts of Languages in the Hittite Empire", "url": "https://brill.com/downloadpdf/display/title/65056.pdf" }, { "title": "Bryce: The Kingdom of the Hittites", "url": "https://dokumen.pub/the-kingdom-of-the-hittites-2nbsped-0199281327-9780199281329.html" }, { "title": "Hittite movement and resettlement synthesis", "url": "https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv1pdrq5q.8" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "post_v5_source_calibration": "Retain the royal-establishment aggregate of approximately 65,000-66,000 without adding interim captures or returned Hittite subjects. Large-scale removal and subordinate political incorporation are supported; resident denominator, exact destinations, later return, mortality, and cohort-specific labor remain unknown.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.5292406006, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.5292406006, "unknown_bound_high": 86.5292406006 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 46.5988800717, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6812438722, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 31.7452015007, "unknown_bound_high": 63.6208142797 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 50.8541958075, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3716611322, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 81.7344147729 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 67.0684213127, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.7534236927, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8636765225 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-qin-eastern-elites-xianyang-resettlement", "name": "Qin relocates powerful and wealthy households to Xianyang", "start": -221, "end": -221, "date_label": "221 BCE", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "state-directed population transfer / ordered relocation", "agents": [ "Qin Empire under the First Emperor" ], "victims": [ "Powerful and wealthy households relocated from broadly described All-under-Heaven origins" ], "summary": "The Shiji reports an imperial relocation of 120,000 powerful and wealthy households from All-under-Heaven to Xianyang. This is one transmitted household claim, not a person count or six enumerated former-state streams. Ordered relocation does not by itself establish punitive deportation, detention, lethal enforcement or confiscation.", "confidence": "high policy; medium-low scale and property detail", "sources": [ { "title": "Sima Qian, Shiji", "locator": "chapter 6; one reported imperial household relocation", "role": "transmitted_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_41_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and calibration controls" } }, { "title": "Barbieri-Low, Coerced Migration and Resettlement in the Qin Imperial Expansion", "locator": "modern interpretation, not an additional transmitted household count", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_41_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and calibration controls" }, "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-chinese-history/article/coerced-migration-and-resettlement-in-the-qin-imperial-expansion/D0DCCFB658519621610BE7A212E4A047/share/1dae239a7a681c61190bb6286f03a7dac0622367" }, { "title": "Korolkov and Hein, State-Induced Migration and the Creation of State Spaces in Early Chinese Empires", "locator": "modern historical/archaeological interpretation", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_41_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and calibration controls" }, "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-chinese-history/article/stateinduced-migration-and-the-creation-of-state-spaces-in-early-chinese-empires-perspectives-from-history-and-archaeology/87D09AD61610E2E7ACC49405863893AB/share/7d75a8cd295189fc97c871073da14cdca0be7967" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.7157958529, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.9641460981, "unknown_bound_high": 95.0366809937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 24.8476125333, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2985059093, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.4171591742, "unknown_bound_high": 77.56656824 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 57.5290276603, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.3199344684, "unknown_bound_high": 87.9517608139 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3973147125, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 16.6872431292, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5676071509, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.4717985283, "unknown_bound_high": 52.7110834423 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-nikephoros-asia-minor-balkan-transfer", "name": "Nikephoros I's compulsory transfer from Asia Minor to the Balkan Sklaviniai", "start": 809, "end": 810, "date_label": "809–810 CE", "region": "Southern Europe and Western Asia", "mechanism": "state-directed demographic remaking (provisional)", "agents": [ "Byzantine Empire under Nikephoros I" ], "victims": [ "Asia Minor military households and other compelled imperial subjects" ], "summary": "Nikephoros I compelled a considerable but unquantified body of households to sell property in Asia Minor and move into Balkan Sklaviniai in 809–810, probably to reinforce insecure districts; uniform removal of destination residents is not supported.", "confidence": "high compulsory measure; medium-low destination and demographic detail", "sources": [ { "title": "Haldon: A context for two evil deeds", "url": "https://books.openedition.org/psorbonne/37663?lang=en" }, { "title": "Migration Histories of the Medieval Afroeurasian Transition Zone", "url": "https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/master/gdc/gdcebookspublic/20/19/05/93/52/2019059352/2019059352.pdf" }, { "title": "Mobility and migration: who tells the story?", "url": "https://eclass.uth.gr/modules/document/file.php/HA_P_239/RAPP_Mobility_and_migration_who%20tells%20the%20story.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.0004135459, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.0004135459, "unknown_bound_high": 92.0004135459 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 47.4952163344, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.4952163344, "unknown_bound_high": 47.4952163344 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 83.9445574431, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6347085099, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 53.2803249701, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 56.3760670747, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 83.2531293021 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 16.7809869001, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 16.7809869001 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 35.2287232365, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.2287232365, "unknown_bound_high": 35.2287232365 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-carolingian-nordalbingian-saxon-removal", "name": "Carolingian removal of Nordalbingian Saxons, Obodrite land grant, and reversal", "start": 804, "end": 811, "date_label": "804–c. 811 CE", "region": "Northern Europe", "mechanism": "state-directed demographic remaking with brief replacement and reversal (provisional)", "agents": [ "Carolingian Empire under Charlemagne", "Obodrite beneficiaries" ], "victims": [ "Nordalbingian Saxon families" ], "summary": "The Royal Frankish Annals report the removal of Nordalbingian Saxons with wives and children into Francia and grant of their land to the Obodrites in 804; the Obodrite phase collapsed after 808 and Saxons returned after roughly seven years.", "confidence": "high removal and land grant; medium count, beneficiary migration, and return detail", "sources": [ { "title": "Royal Frankish Annals, 804", "url": "https://francia.ahlfeldt.se/page/documents/19140" }, { "title": "Einhard: Life of Charlemagne", "url": "https://sourcebooks.web.fordham.edu/basis/einhard.asp" }, { "title": "J. L. Nelson: Go Away and Learn", "url": "https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v26/n08/j.l.-nelson/go-away-and-learn" }, { "title": "University of Hamburg: early urban development of Hamburg", "url": "https://www.spaetmittelalter.uni-hamburg.de/spaetmittelalter/Lehre/Ergebnisse/Hamburg/themen/HamburgsFrueheStadtentwicklung.html" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 78.5961447732, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.5961447732, "unknown_bound_high": 78.5961447732 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 49.2354745874, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.2354745874, "unknown_bound_high": 49.2354745874 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.295522786, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6068188842, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 41.4430129343, "unknown_bound_high": 80.7611245122 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 75.3516209265, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7495305509, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 56.478341948, "unknown_bound_high": 81.525286853 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 16.7809869001, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 16.7809869001 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 4.7869713995, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.7869713995, "unknown_bound_high": 4.7869713995 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-achaemenid-barcaeans-bactria", "name": "Persian capture of Barca and deportation of Barcaeans to Bactria", "start": -515, "end": -510, "date_label": "Late 510s BCE, approximately 515–510 BCE", "region": "North Africa / Central Asia", "mechanism": "state-directed demographic remaking after conquest (provisional)", "agents": [ "Achaemenid Empire under Darius I", "Persian forces under Aryandes's command", "Pheretime of Cyrene" ], "victims": [ "Residents of Barca taken after the siege" ], "summary": "Herodotus reports that after a punitive siege, killings, and mutilations at Barca, most remaining residents were enslaved and transported through Egypt to Darius, who assigned them a settlement in Bactria; a reported Battid remnant retained Barca. The Bactrian settlement's exact site and the deported cohort's total are unknown.", "confidence": "high event; low demographic and destination-tenure detail", "sources": [ { "title": "Herodotus 4.200–204", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Herodotus/4g%2A.html" }, { "title": "Ferrario: Herodotus on Bactria between Achaemenid Mobility and Alexander's Campaign", "url": "https://cejsh.icm.edu.pl/cejsh/element/bwmeta1.element.desklight-4a5c8478-0172-49aa-b985-ec38fedee156" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica: Deportations", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/deportations/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "One uncertain-date capture and assigned-residence event, not a continuous six-year operation.", "kind": "dating_window_not_duration" }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 82.7191925586, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.6960407251, "unknown_bound_high": 83.7685756207 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 21.3511596433, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.342378498, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.3101779694, "unknown_bound_high": 73.0723281685 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 81.9519457113, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.4606810124, "unknown_bound_high": 93.0714997192 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.8499571243, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.4198282854, "unknown_bound_high": 83.9748749916 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-achaemenid-eretria-ardericca", "name": "Achaemenid capture of Eretria and deportation of a captive cohort to Ardericca", "start": -490, "end": -490, "date_label": "490 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe / Western Asia", "mechanism": "state-directed demographic remaking after punitive conquest (provisional)", "agents": [ "Achaemenid Empire under Darius I", "Datis", "Artaphrenes" ], "victims": [ "Eretrians captured inside the city" ], "summary": "Persian forces captured and damaged Eretria, enslaved the residents taken there, and moved them to Darius's domain at Ardericca near Susa, where their community and language endured; Eretria recovered through an unidentified mixture of survivors, absentees, nearby returnees and/or later arrivals; no return from Ardericca is demonstrated.", "confidence": "high captured-community transfer and destination continuity; low count and source-removal share", "sources": [ { "title": "Herodotus 6.119", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0126%3Abook%3D6%3Achapter%3D119" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica: Peoples of Iran, Pre-Islamic", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/iran-v2-peoples-pre-islamic/" }, { "title": "Swiss School of Archaeology in Greece: Eretria XXVI", "url": "https://www.esag.swiss/eretria-series/eretria-xxvi/" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica: Deportations", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/deportations/" }, { "title": "Herodotus, Histories", "locator": "6.100–102: division, siege, capture and enslavement; 6.107 and 6.115: Aeglea custody; 6.118–119: Asia, Susa and Ardericca; same ancient narrative as the existing 6.119 citation", "role": "ancient_narrative_additional_passages_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_28_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Eretria/Ardericca authorization" } } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "metadata_scope_qualifier": "The 490 event joins capture, custody, transfer through Susa and assigned settlement at Ardericca. Source-city survival and recovery do not establish return from Ardericca. Captive total, household composition, exact destination site, land and labor arrangements remain unknown.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.4996059958, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.3076125861, "unknown_bound_high": 86.3801474817 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 33.9522605077, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2244302622, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.6199147288, "unknown_bound_high": 85.1768885066 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 64.6581500419, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.6508619524, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8987147883 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-achaemenid-sidonians-susa-babylon", "name": "Achaemenid suppression of Sidon and deportation of prisoners to Babylon and Susa", "start": -345, "end": -345, "date_label": "345 BCE; 346 BCE calendar-conversion alternative", "region": "Eastern Mediterranean / Western Asia", "mechanism": "state-directed demographic remaking after punitive conquest (provisional)", "agents": [ "Achaemenid Empire under Artaxerxes III", "Persian royal army", "Tennes of Sidon in the city's betrayal" ], "victims": [ "Sidonian residents captured after the revolt, including women sent to the royal palace" ], "summary": "After Artaxerxes III reconquered Sidon, a contemporary Babylonian chronicle records prisoners captured there being brought to Babylon and Susa in his fourteenth regnal year, with women sent to Babylon entering the royal palace; the scale of deaths and deportation and the captives' later lives remain unknown, and Sidon soon recovered as a city.", "confidence": "high forced transfer and destinations; medium event chronology; low scale, mortality, and destination-life detail", "sources": [ { "title": "ABC 9: Artaxerxes III Chronicle", "url": "https://www.livius.org/sources/content/mesopotamian-chronicles-content/abc-9-artaxerxes-iii-chronicle/" }, { "title": "Diodorus Siculus 16.43–45", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Diodorus_Siculus/16C%2A.html" }, { "title": "Izdimirski: Deportations of kurtaš workers in the Achaemenid Empire", "url": "https://antiquitasviva.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/68.1-2.06.-izdimirski-m.-deportations-of-kurtash-workers-in-the-achaemenid-empire-according-to-classical-literary-tradition.pdf" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica: Deportations", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/deportations/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "One event with a one-year calendar-conversion uncertainty, not a two-year duration.", "kind": "calendar_conversion_alternative", "alternatives": [ -345, -346 ], "retained_coordinate": -345 }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.7157958529, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.9641460981, "unknown_bound_high": 95.0366809937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 15.482922634, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.342378498, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.3010197962, "unknown_bound_high": 71.0631699953 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 21.3665460499, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6768628523, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 46.7759360712 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3116545288, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 90.4768577157 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.9797011026, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.8854282839, "unknown_bound_high": 80.4404749901 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "late-antique-sasanian-hatra-depopulation", "name": "Sasanian conquest and permanent urban abandonment of Hatra", "start": 240, "end": 241, "date_label": "240–241 CE", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "expulsion or flight without replacement after conquest (provisional)", "agents": [ "Sasanian forces under Ardashir I; Shapur was co-regent, with operational role unestablished" ], "victims": [ "Residents of Hatra, an Aramaic- and Arabic-speaking frontier kingdom allied with Rome" ], "summary": "Sasanian forces under Ardashir I conquered Hatra in 240–241 CE, permanently ending the city and its kingdom; archaeology and a fourth-century eyewitness establish long-term abandonment, while Iranica's secondary deportation survey reports carried-off inhabitants without establishing total deportation. The proportions of captivity, flight, death and other absence remain unknown.", "confidence": "high conquest and permanent depopulation; medium responsible ruler; low resident fate, scale, and destination detail", "sources": [ { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica, Hatra", "locator": "conquest and urban abandonment synthesis", "role": "modern_reference", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_48_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Hatra" }, "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/hatra/" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica, Deportations", "locator": "secondary survey reports carried-off inhabitants; not total deportation", "role": "modern_secondary_survey", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_48_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Hatra" }, "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/deportations/" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica, Shapur I", "locator": "co-regency context; operational command at Hatra is not established", "role": "modern_reference", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_48_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Hatra" }, "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/shapur-i/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "metadata_date_semantics": { "kind": "date_uncertainty_not_duration", "alternative_years": [ 240, 241 ] }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.639526665, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 63.9526664987, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.6406364033, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2224188306, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.6994214139, "unknown_bound_high": 79.4575383534 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 63.749000464, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3980215489, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.3734759039, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5713210164 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 51.4387666946, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2465868986, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4944397345 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 90.426057201 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "late-antique-sasanian-shapur-antioch-captivity", "name": "Shapur I's first capture of Antioch and deportation of residents", "start": null, "end": null, "date_label": "253 or 256 CE; exact year disputed", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "first capture, reported killing and captivity; destination settlement and labor not evidenced for this cohort", "agents": [ "Sasanian Empire under Shapur I" ], "victims": [ "Residents captured at Antioch-on-the-Orontes, including the Christian community represented in later tradition by Bishop Demetrianus" ], "summary": "Later accounts report killing and captivity in Shapur I's first capture of Antioch, dated 253 or 256 CE in conflicting specialist syntheses. The captive cohort's magnitude and allocation are unknown. General Sasanian settlement and labor evidence does not establish this cohort's destination, household settlement or labor use; Antioch recovered.", "confidence": "high city-resident captivity; medium destination-community linkage; low exact date, scale, household composition, and route allocation", "sources": [ { "title": "Zosimus, New History 1.27", "url": "https://www.livius.org/sources/content/zosimus/zosimus-new-history-1/zosimus-new-history-1.27/" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica: Antioch", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/antioch-1-northern-syria/" }, { "title": "Peter Edwell: Rome and Persia at War — Captives", "url": "https://ebrary.net/277529/history/captives" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica: Gondeshapur", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/gondesapur/gondesapur-ii-history-and-medical-school/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "One disputed-year first-capture event, not a 252–256 duration; keep later 260 and 540 events separate.", "kind": "alternative_dates", "alternatives": [ 253, 256 ] }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.4887419808, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7109409072, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 69.3087346615, "unknown_bound_high": 98.2146439457 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.9623764568, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2985059093, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1529109742, "unknown_bound_high": 77.30232004 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9256914734, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 7.4308526592 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3116545288, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 87.7350751094 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 67.0684213127, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.7534236927, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8636765225 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 13.0570434772, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4171744446, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 63.7296204001 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "late-antique-sasanian-shapur-dura-europos-deportation", "name": "Shapur I's final siege of Dura-Europos, reported deportation, and urban abandonment", "start": 256, "end": 256, "date_label": "c. 256 CE", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "expulsion or flight without replacement after conquest (provisional)", "agents": [ "Sasanian Empire under Shapur I" ], "victims": [ "Civilian residents of Dura-Europos", "The Roman garrison, retained as context rather than the qualifying population" ], "summary": "Dura-Europos fell after the final Sasanian siege c. 256 CE, and urban occupation ended. Pierre Leriche's specialist synthesis reports community deportation; siege archaeology independently supports violent conquest and abandonment, not a person-by-person deportee census. Individual fates, destination, route and labor role remain unknown.", "confidence": "high siege, civilian deportation, and permanent source-city abandonment; low scale, household composition, mortality, and destination detail", "sources": [ { "title": "Pierre Leriche, Encyclopaedia Iranica: Dura-Europos — Archaeology and History", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/dura-europos/dura-europos-i-archaeology-and-history/", "role": "modern_specialist_synthesis" }, { "title": "Peter Edwell: Rome and Persia at War — Captives", "url": "https://ebrary.net/277529/history/captives" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica: Deportations", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/deportations/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Approximate final-siege date; 256/257 temporal sensitivity remains separate from the c. 256 preferred coordinate.", "kind": "approximate_event", "sensitivity_years": [ 256, 257 ] }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.4887419808, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7109409072, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 69.3087346615, "unknown_bound_high": 98.2146439457 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.6406364033, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2224188306, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.6994214139, "unknown_bound_high": 79.4575383534 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 74.4013147875, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7259279717, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 54.009995535, "unknown_bound_high": 81.4171983657 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 51.4387666946, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2465868986, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4944397345 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "late-antique-sasanian-shapur-third-campaign-provincials", "name": "Shapur I's third-campaign deportation and resettlement of Roman provincial residents", "start": 260, "end": 260, "date_label": "260 CE", "region": "Middle East and North Africa / Western Asia", "mechanism": "state-directed demographic remaking through captive resettlement (provisional)", "agents": [ "Sasanian Empire under Shapur I" ], "victims": [ "Roman provincial captives and other people, including civilians in specialist interpretation" ], "summary": "Shapur's royal inscription reports thirty-six captured places in the 260 campaign and aggregate removal of Roman people and settlement in named Sasanian regions. The campaign-program unit is an editorial choice at this source resolution, not thirty-six displacement events. Civilians are included in specialist interpretation; no city-specific allocation or civilian count is established. The inscription's 70,000 describes Valerian's military force, not captives, civilians, migrants or settlers.", "confidence": "high campaign-level civilian deportation and destination regions; medium city-origin membership; low scale, household composition, individual routes, and later status", "sources": [ { "title": "Shapur I's trilingual inscription at the Ka'ba-ye Zartosht", "url": "https://sites.uci.edu/sasanika/sapur-is-inscription-kaba-ye-zartost-skz/" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica: Shapur I", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/shapur-i/" }, { "title": "Peter Edwell: Rome and Persia at War — Captives", "url": "https://ebrary.net/277529/history/captives" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica: Deportations", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/deportations/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.4887419808, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6376453809, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 62.1632460108, "unknown_bound_high": 98.3987079239 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2181395824, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4534895603, "unknown_bound_high": 83.639531319 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.4630541383, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.7196619554, "unknown_bound_high": 83.8299147852 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-egypt-thutmose-iii-megiddo-captive-communities", "name": "Thutmose III's Year 23 campaign and captive removal from Megiddo-linked towns", "start": -1457, "end": -1457, "date_label": "c. 1457 BCE", "region": "Western Asia / North Africa", "mechanism": "Royal military capture and removal into Egyptian custody; final institutional destinations and later labor assignments are unknown.", "agents": [ "Thutmose III and the Egyptian army" ], "victims": [ "340 living battle prisoners from Megiddo", "A separate list declaring 2,503 lords, children, men, women, dependants, and famine-surrendering people attributed to Yenoam, Nuges, Herenkeru, and other linked towns" ], "summary": "Thutmose III's Year 23 annals distinguish 340 living battle prisoners from Megiddo from a separate multi-town list declaring 2,503 people. The campaign supports movement from the Levantine campaign zone into Egyptian custody, but not total depopulation, a precise destination estate, cohort-specific labor, mortality, return, or descendant continuity.", "confidence": "high on the bounded Year 23 campaign, the two distinct lists, and movement into Egyptian custody; low or unknown on source-population share, exact destinations, labor assignments, mortality, return, and later community history", "sources": [ { "title": "Breasted, Ancient Records of Egypt, volume II, sections 434–437", "url": "https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ba/Ancient_records_of_Egypt%3B_historical_documents_from_the_earliest_times_to_the_Persian_conquest_%28IA_ancientrecordsof02brea_0%29.pdf" }, { "title": "Langer, Forced Labour and Deportations in Ancient Egypt", "url": "https://rephip.unr.edu.ar/server/api/core/bitstreams/fdd10945-5279-47cb-95fe-df0a24b71905/content" }, { "title": "Panagiotopoulos, Foreigners in Egypt in the Time of Hatshepsut and Thutmose III", "url": "https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/propylaeumdok/847/1/Panagiotopoulos_Foreigners_in_Egypt_2006.pdf" }, { "title": "Langer, Deportation Policies in Egypt's Late Bronze Age Empire", "url": "https://www.archaeopress.com/Archaeopress/download/9781803273402" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "post_v5_source_calibration": "Keep the Megiddo battle prisoners distinct from the separately attributed multi-town list. Movement to Egyptian custody is supported; exact institutional destinations, long-term settlement, return, descendant continuity, and cohort-specific labor assignment remain unknown.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.5292406006, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.5292406006, "unknown_bound_high": 86.5292406006 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.7815207969, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.7815207969, "unknown_bound_high": 10.7815207969 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.0647509969, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 46.1068782004, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.7196619554, "unknown_bound_high": 72.2747086616 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-mongol-samarkand-artisan-and-youth-removals", "name": "Mongol capture of Samarkand and removal of artisans and young men", "start": 1220, "end": 1223, "date_label": "1220–c. 1223 CE", "region": "Central Asia / East Asia", "mechanism": "conquest, selective captive removal, coerced labor, and imperial redistribution (provisional)", "agents": [ "Mongol Empire under Chinggis Khan", "Mongol army and Chinggisid household administrations" ], "victims": [ "Samarkand residents selected as artisans and young male levies", "Other residents killed, displaced, ransomed, or repeatedly levied after the city's capture" ], "summary": "After Samarkand's capture in 1220, Juvaini reports that 30,000 craftspeople were distributed among Chinggis Khan's sons and kinsmen and a similar number of young men were levied. A near-contemporary visitor later found the city's population at roughly one quarter of its former level, while later sources trace some Samarkand artisans into eastern imperial workshops. The reported figures remain attributed chronicle claims, not census counts.", "confidence": "high bounded conquest and selective state redistribution; high severe source-city depopulation; medium long-distance eastern destinations and coerced workshop disposition; low exact counts, destination shares, mortality decomposition, and cohort-specific descendant history", "sources": [ { "title": "Juvaini, The History of the World-Conqueror, volume I, pp. 115–122", "url": "https://archive.org/details/historyoftheworl011691mbp" }, { "title": "Peter Jackson, The Mongols and the Islamic World, pp. 169–173 and 225–226", "url": "https://paxmongolica.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/peter-jackson-the-mongols-and-the-islamic-world-from-conquest-to-conversion-yale-university-press-2017-pdf.pdf" }, { "title": "Clothing Authority, chapter 9.2 on imperial workshops", "url": "https://codex.siah.ac/uploads/short-url/7v7WQft6fS3h51kVdNbsost3Z6O.pdf" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica, Samarqand: History and Archaeology", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/samarqand-i/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.4270383861, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.4270383861, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4270383861 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 19.7974623941, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.7974623941, "unknown_bound_high": 19.7974623941 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 48.5962645439, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3910742329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.0047468762, "unknown_bound_high": 79.8973235905 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.5585476468, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5647834195, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.2024636187, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7241216707 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 70.5930558879, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 45.4039654089, "unknown_bound_high": 81.0860734607 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 20.5073157218, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.5073157218, "unknown_bound_high": 20.5073157218 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-mongol-urgench-destruction-and-artisan-removal", "name": "Mongol destruction of old Urgench and removal of captive artisans", "start": 1221, "end": 1232, "date_label": "1221–before 1232 CE", "region": "Central Asia / East Asia", "mechanism": "conquest, near-total urban clearance, enslavement, and eastward artisan redistribution (provisional)", "agents": [ "Mongol Empire under Chinggis Khan", "Forces of Chaghadai and Ögedei" ], "victims": [ "Residents of Gurganj or old Urgench, including artisans, children, young women, and men selected for execution" ], "summary": "After a prolonged siege and street fighting in 1221, the Mongols destroyed old Urgench, separated artisans for removal, enslaved children and young women, and killed the remaining men according to Juvaini. The chronicle's claim of more than 100,000 artisans is not credible as a count, but the selective eastward transfer is independently accepted; a new city was soon built near the destroyed capital.", "confidence": "high bounded conquest, old-city destruction, selective captive removal, and new-city successor; high sex- and age-differentiated enslavement and killing in the primary narrative; low exact scale, eastern allocation shares, and demographic totals", "sources": [ { "title": "Juvaini, The History of the World-Conqueror, volume I, pp. 123–128", "url": "https://archive.org/details/historyoftheworl011691mbp" }, { "title": "Peter Jackson, The Mongols and the Islamic World, pp. 158, 169–170, 173, and 176–177", "url": "https://paxmongolica.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/peter-jackson-the-mongols-and-the-islamic-world-from-conquest-to-conversion-yale-university-press-2017-pdf.pdf" }, { "title": "Clothing Authority, chapter 9.2 on imperial workshops", "url": "https://codex.siah.ac/uploads/short-url/7v7WQft6fS3h51kVdNbsost3Z6O.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.4270383861, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.4270383861, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4270383861 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 16.0936800381, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.0936800381, "unknown_bound_high": 16.0936800381 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 67.971509023, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5647834195, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.3891812932, "unknown_bound_high": 81.9108393452 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 90.398076524, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.398076524, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 20.5073157218, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.5073157218, "unknown_bound_high": 20.5073157218 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-mongol-merv-selective-captivity-and-depopulation", "name": "Mongol capture of Merv, selective captivity, and near-total depopulation", "start": 1221, "end": 1222, "date_label": "1221–1222 CE", "region": "Central Asia", "mechanism": "conquest, selective artisan and child captivity, repeated massacre, and urban destruction (provisional)", "agents": [ "Mongol Empire under Chinggis Khan", "Forces of Tolui and subsequent Mongol detachments" ], "victims": [ "Residents of Merv, including a selected group of artisans and children carried into captivity" ], "summary": "Tolui's forces captured Merv in 1221, drove the population onto the plain, selected 400 artisans and an unspecified number of children for captivity, and ordered the remainder killed. Juvaini then describes renewed killings of people who re-emerged or returned. The city's depopulation is secure, but its million-person death totals are rhetorical and unusable.", "confidence": "high bounded capture, selected captive stream, repeated killing, and near-total city depopulation; medium continued coerced labor disposition; low displaced count beyond the 400-artisan claim, destination, mortality total, and later captive-community history", "sources": [ { "title": "Juvaini, The History of the World-Conqueror, volume I, pp. 153–168", "url": "https://archive.org/details/historyoftheworl011691mbp" }, { "title": "Peter Jackson, The Mongols and the Islamic World, pp. 169–176", "url": "https://paxmongolica.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/peter-jackson-the-mongols-and-the-islamic-world-from-conquest-to-conversion-yale-university-press-2017-pdf.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.4270383861, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.4270383861, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4270383861 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.0753636917, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.0753636917, "unknown_bound_high": 12.0753636917 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 67.971509023, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5647834195, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.3891812932, "unknown_bound_high": 81.9108393452 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.7169250599, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.9699317459, "unknown_bound_high": 78.8428704004 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 9.1915900178, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0462169026, "unknown_bound_high": 20.5073157218 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-mongol-nishapur-massacre-and-artisan-removal", "name": "Mongol destruction of Nishapur and removal of 400 craftspeople", "start": 1221, "end": 1221, "date_label": "April 1221 CE", "region": "Central Asia", "mechanism": "retaliatory conquest, near-total killing, urban destruction, and selective artisan deportation (provisional)", "agents": [ "Mongol Empire under Chinggis Khan", "Forces of Tolui and the household of the slain commander Toghachar" ], "victims": [ "Residents of Nishapur", "Four hundred selected craftspeople carried to Turkestan" ], "summary": "After Nishapur resisted and a Mongol commander had been killed, Tolui's forces captured the city in April 1221. Juvaini says residents were driven onto the plain, the city was leveled, and only 400 craftspeople were selected and carried to Turkestan. Modern scholarship accepts the selective removal and catastrophic killing while rejecting seven-figure casualty totals.", "confidence": "high bounded capture, selective 400-person artisan transfer to Turkestan, city destruction, and near-total lethal outcome; medium long-term coerced labor disposition; low exact city population, total deaths, receiving settlement, and descendant history", "sources": [ { "title": "Juvaini, The History of the World-Conqueror, volume I, pp. 169–178", "url": "https://archive.org/details/historyoftheworl011691mbp" }, { "title": "Peter Jackson, The Mongols and the Islamic World, pp. 158, 169–173", "url": "https://paxmongolica.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/peter-jackson-the-mongols-and-the-islamic-world-from-conquest-to-conversion-yale-university-press-2017-pdf.pdf" }, { "title": "Clothing Authority, chapter 9.2 on imperial workshops", "url": "https://codex.siah.ac/uploads/short-url/7v7WQft6fS3h51kVdNbsost3Z6O.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.4270383861, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.4270383861, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4270383861 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.0753636917, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.0753636917, "unknown_bound_high": 12.0753636917 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 48.5962645439, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3910742329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.0047468762, "unknown_bound_high": 79.8973235905 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 67.971509023, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5647834195, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.3891812932, "unknown_bound_high": 81.9108393452 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 82.3481633601, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.7475348077, "unknown_bound_high": 84.6204734622 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 20.5073157218, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.5073157218, "unknown_bound_high": 20.5073157218 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-mongol-herat-weavers-beshbaliq-return", "name": "Mongol transfer of Herat weaver households to Beshbaliq and partial return", "start": 1221, "end": 1240, "date_label": "1221–c. 1240 CE", "region": "Central Asia", "mechanism": "state-directed household deportation, coerced imperial textile production, and staged partial return (provisional)", "agents": [ "Mongol Empire under Chinggis Khan, Tolui, and Ögedei", "Imperial and Uighur workshop administrations at Beshbaliq" ], "victims": [ "Approximately 1,000 households of weavers removed from Herat and held at Beshbaliq" ], "summary": "Following Herat's submission in 1221, Tolui transferred a reported 1,000 households of weavers to Beshbaliq, where they produced luxury textiles for the Mongol court. Under Ögedei, part of the captive community returned to Herat in two stages in 1237–1240 after its master argued that production would be more profitable there. The household figure remains a source claim, but the origin, destination, coerced labor purpose, and partial return are unusually well bounded.", "confidence": "high origin, long-distance destination, household-scale captive stream, imperial textile labor, and two-stage partial return; medium exact household count and share returned; low cohort-specific later demographic endpoint", "sources": [ { "title": "Peter Jackson, The Mongols and the Islamic World, pp. 173 and 225–226", "url": "https://paxmongolica.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/peter-jackson-the-mongols-and-the-islamic-world-from-conquest-to-conversion-yale-university-press-2017-pdf.pdf" }, { "title": "A History of Herat, chapter 9, Urban Renewal and Cultural Renaissance", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/history-of-herat/urban-renewal-and-cultural-renaissance/044B25EEF8C6C68F8EB8FDE090626DC5" }, { "title": "Cambridge History of the Mongol Empire accepted chapter on artistic production", "url": "https://soas-repository.worktribe.com/OutputFile/439555" }, { "title": "Clothing Authority, chapter 9.2 on imperial workshops", "url": "https://codex.siah.ac/uploads/short-url/7v7WQft6fS3h51kVdNbsost3Z6O.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.4270383861, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.4270383861, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4270383861 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 15.4925803726, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.4925803726, "unknown_bound_high": 15.4925803726 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 80.8917848465, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5603999833, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.3317548789, "unknown_bound_high": 89.2917565467 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 54.4714552831, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3973147125, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 81.9108393452 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 33.0582006084, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.0582006084, "unknown_bound_high": 33.0582006084 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 11.1614916074, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.1614916074, "unknown_bound_high": 11.1614916074 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-mongol-bukhara-capture-dispersal-levy", "name": "Mongol capture of Bukhara, forced dispersal, and military-labor levy", "start": 1220, "end": 1220, "date_label": "February–March 1220 CE", "region": "Central Asia", "mechanism": "conquest, citywide expulsion, property pillage, forced military labor, selected artisan redistribution, and early return (provisional)", "agents": [ "Mongol Empire under Chinggis Khan", "Forces of Chinggis Khan and Tolui" ], "victims": [ "Residents of Bukhara, including selected youths, adult men, and skilled craftspeople" ], "summary": "After Bukhara surrendered in 1220, the Mongols burned much of the city while reducing its citadel, drove all residents out, pressed selected youths and men into military labor, and distributed craftspeople among Chinggisid uluses. Most other residents scattered into nearby villages, and rebuilding and return began under Mongol administration. No defensible citywide count, selected-cohort total, or return share survives.", "confidence": "high citywide expulsion, burning, forced levy, artisan allocation, and early return; medium route structure and pace of recovery; low population totals, cohort shares, and individual destinations", "sources": [ { "title": "Juvaini, The History of the World-Conqueror, volume I, pp. 97–108", "url": "https://archive.org/details/historyoftheworl011691mbp" }, { "title": "Peter Jackson, The Mongols and the Islamic World, pp. 156–157", "url": "https://paxmongolica.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/peter-jackson-the-mongols-and-the-islamic-world-from-conquest-to-conversion-yale-university-press-2017-pdf.pdf" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica, Bukhara iii. After the Mongol Invasion", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/bukhara-iii/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.4270383861, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.4270383861, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4270383861 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.0753636917, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.0753636917, "unknown_bound_high": 12.0753636917 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 20.5303250836, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9256914734, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.0047468762, "unknown_bound_high": 26.4355995354 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.7202131459, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.9542282869, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5092749931 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 8.0462169026, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0462169026, "unknown_bound_high": 8.0462169026 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-mongol-balkh-punitive-destruction", "name": "Mongol punitive destruction and depopulation of Balkh", "start": 1221, "end": 1221, "date_label": "Spring 1221 CE", "region": "Central Asia", "mechanism": "punitive reconquest, citywide removal onto the plain, massacre, urban destruction, and delayed recovery (provisional)", "agents": [ "Mongol Empire under Chinggis Khan", "Forces of Chinggis Khan" ], "victims": [ "Residents of Balkh after the city's revolt against Mongol rule" ], "summary": "Balkh surrendered in 1220 and initially avoided massacre, but after revolt the Mongols returned in spring 1221, drove residents onto the plain, massacred much of the population, and destroyed the city. Changchun encountered an emptied or fled city in 1222. Exact population and casualty totals are not recoverable, and Juvaini's compressed narrative must be read as two episodes.", "confidence": "high two-stage surrender and punitive destruction, large-scale resident loss, and long urban decline; medium near-total depopulation; low exact population, deaths, survivor destinations, and return timing", "sources": [ { "title": "Juvaini, The History of the World-Conqueror, volume I, pp. 130–131", "url": "https://archive.org/details/historyoftheworl011691mbp" }, { "title": "Peter Jackson, The Mongols and the Islamic World, pp. 158–159 and 173", "url": "https://paxmongolica.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/peter-jackson-the-mongols-and-the-islamic-world-from-conquest-to-conversion-yale-university-press-2017-pdf.pdf" }, { "title": "Changchun, Travels to the West, September 1222", "url": "https://depts.washington.edu/silkroad/texts/changchun.html" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica, Balḵ ii. History from the Arab Conquest to the Mongols", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/bal%E1%B8%B5-ii-history-from-the-arab-conquest-to-the-mongols/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.2234725137, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.2234725137, "unknown_bound_high": 10.2234725137 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.2770846054, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8152528685, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.478341948, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.7169250599, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.9699317459, "unknown_bound_high": 78.8428704004 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.8932200557, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9038663149, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.2305494096, "unknown_bound_high": 15.843917919 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-mongol-bamiyan-retaliatory-destruction", "name": "Mongol retaliatory destruction and imposed depopulation of Bamiyan", "start": 1221, "end": 1222, "date_label": "1221–1222 CE", "region": "Central Asia", "mechanism": "siege, retaliatory massacre, urban destruction, and an imposed no-habitation outcome (provisional)", "agents": [ "Mongol Empire under Chinggis Khan", "Forces of Chinggis Khan" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the besieged fortified city of Bamiyan" ], "summary": "After Chinggis Khan's grandson Mö'etügen was killed during the siege, the Mongols took Bamiyan and issued a retaliatory order that every living creature be killed, no prisoners taken, and nobody live there thereafter. Specialist sources confirm the city was razed and remained ruined, but the universal wording is not a census and must not be extended automatically to every settlement in the wider valley.", "confidence": "high siege, retaliatory order, massacre, destruction, and long ruined source-city outcome; medium affected fortified-city identification; low exact population, casualty total, and the fate of residents beyond that bounded site", "sources": [ { "title": "Juvaini, The History of the World-Conqueror, volume I, pp. 132–133", "url": "https://archive.org/details/historyoftheworl011691mbp" }, { "title": "Peter Jackson, The Mongols and the Islamic World, p. 158", "url": "https://paxmongolica.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/peter-jackson-the-mongols-and-the-islamic-world-from-conquest-to-conversion-yale-university-press-2017-pdf.pdf" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica, Bāmīān ii. History and monuments", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/bamian-town-in-central-afghanistan/bamian-ii-history-and-monuments/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.9089046622, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.9089046622, "unknown_bound_high": 81.9089046622 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.9064804039, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.9064804039, "unknown_bound_high": 7.9064804039 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.2770846054, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8152528685, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.478341948, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.7169250599, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.9699317459, "unknown_bound_high": 78.8428704004 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 13.7864401114, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9038663149, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.4610988192, "unknown_bound_high": 22.0744673286 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-mongol-herat-rebellion-punitive-destruction", "name": "Mongol punitive destruction of Herat after the 1221 revolt", "start": 1221, "end": 1222, "date_label": "1221–1222 CE", "region": "Central Asia", "mechanism": "punitive reconquest, near-total massacre, enslavement of some women, urban and canal destruction, and long-term depopulation (provisional)", "agents": [ "Mongol Empire under Chinggis Khan", "Punitive force under Eljigidei" ], "victims": [ "Residents remaining in Herat after the first Mongol capture, excluding the previously removed weaver households" ], "summary": "Tolui's first capture spared Herat's general population, which later killed the installed Mongol deputies. A separate punitive force reconquered the city after a long siege in 1221–1222, destroyed it, killed most residents, enslaved some women, and searched the countryside for survivors. Later million-plus casualty figures are unusable; the earlier Herat-to-Beshbaliq weaver transfer remains a separate cohort and event.", "confidence": "high two-stage chronology, punitive reconquest, mass killing, urban destruction, and long demographic decline; medium enslavement of some women and canal-system damage; low exact deaths, survivor share, captive destination, and cohort-specific return", "sources": [ { "title": "Peter Jackson, The Mongols and the Islamic World, p. 159", "url": "https://paxmongolica.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/peter-jackson-the-mongols-and-the-islamic-world-from-conquest-to-conversion-yale-university-press-2017-pdf.pdf" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica, Herat iii. History, Medieval Period", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/herat-iii/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.9641460981, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.9641460981, "unknown_bound_high": 88.9641460981 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 9.7583715819, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.7583715819, "unknown_bound_high": 9.7583715819 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 25.5936413202, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7425573657, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 19.0047468762, "unknown_bound_high": 44.7490103108 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 47.0886798134, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8152528685, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.3891812932, "unknown_bound_high": 56.8638944401 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 88.9794016604, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.5251378695, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 9.1915900178, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0462169026, "unknown_bound_high": 20.5073157218 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-assyrian-unqi-annexation-cross-resettlement", "name": "Tiglath-pileser III's annexation of Unqi and cross-resettlement", "start": -738, "end": -738, "date_label": "738 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "Kinalia capture, coercive distribution of residents among the army, provincial reorganization, and captive placements in Unqi cities", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Tiglath-pileser III", "Assyrian army and provincial administration" ], "victims": [ "Kinalia residents coercively distributed among the army; later fate and destination unknown", "Captive cohorts attributed as 600 and 5,400 persons placed in Unqi cities; exclude the 555-person Tīl-karme placement" ], "summary": "In 738 BCE Tiglath-pileser III captured Kinalia, coercively distributed residents among the army, reorganized Unqi provincially, and placed captive cohorts in Unqi cities. The 600- and 5,400-person placements are attributed royal claims. Residents' later fate and destination remain unknown. The separate 555-person Bīt-Sangibūti placement at Tīl-karme and its Assyrian-status and corvée clauses are excluded.", "confidence": "high state-directed cross-resettlement and provincial reorganization; medium minimum enumerated scale; low complete origin-destination matrix, population shares, household composition, mortality, and later community history", "sources": [ { "title": "RINAP 1: Tiglath-pileser III and Shalmaneser V, texts 12-14", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/downloads/Tadmor_Yamada_RINAP_1.pdf" }, { "title": "ORACC RINAP 1 composite annals", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/rinap1/Q006333/html" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.7157958529, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.9641460981, "unknown_bound_high": 95.0366809937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 30.8938010437, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4164541451, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.8658515035, "unknown_bound_high": 71.2204369905 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 57.5290276603, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.3199344684, "unknown_bound_high": 87.9517608139 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.2079991435, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.2190236911, "unknown_bound_high": 83.329276521 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-assyrian-damascus-punitive-deportations", "name": "Assyrian conquest of Aram-Damascus and punitive deportations", "start": -733, "end": -732, "date_label": "733-732 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "punitive conquest, resident deportation, settlement destruction, and orchard clearance without demonstrated replacement (provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Tiglath-pileser III", "Assyrian royal army" ], "victims": [ "Residents of named settlements in Aram-Damascus" ], "summary": "During the final 733-732 BCE campaign against Aram-Damascus, Tiglath-pileser III's inscription reports separate removed cohorts of 800, 750 and 550, destruction of 591 settlements in sixteen districts, and the cutting of plantations and orchards. The source does not identify a durable incoming population or a final destination for those removed.", "confidence": "high campaign-level deportation and severe source-land destruction; medium enumerated minimum as a royal claim; low destination, total population share, mortality, and post-campaign production history", "sources": [ { "title": "RINAP 1: Tiglath-pileser III and Shalmaneser V, Damascus campaign passages", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/downloads/Tadmor_Yamada_RINAP_1.pdf" }, { "title": "ORACC RINAP 1 composite annals", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/rinap1/Q006333/html" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "metadata_scope_qualifier": "Military losses, impaled leaders, the 800/750/550 removed cohorts, and the 591-city destruction claim are distinct measurands. The city count is not a population or mortality denominator. Annexation and governors do not establish incoming settlement or labor use.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.7157958529, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.9641460981, "unknown_bound_high": 95.0366809937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.6482471706, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4164541451, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.6015983823, "unknown_bound_high": 61.9561838693 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.9804454801, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0940476491 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.3234763075, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.2540619569, "unknown_bound_high": 87.3643147868 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-assyrian-northern-israel-galilee-deportation", "name": "Tiglath-pileser III's annexation of northern Israel and Galilee deportation", "start": -733, "end": -732, "date_label": "733–732 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "annexation and state deportation without demonstrated replacement settlement (provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Tiglath-pileser III", "Assyrian royal army and provincial administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of sixteen northern Israelite districts, especially in the later province of Megiddo" ], "summary": "A damaged royal passage attributes 13,520 removals in the northern Israel/Galilee operation. The destination 'to Assyria' is editorially restored. The 733 removal phase and wider-record 732 annexation form one event; Megiddo's provincial outcome is a scholarly synthesis, not preserved wording in text 21. No incoming replacement community is demonstrated, and the later Samaria sequence is excluded.", "confidence": "high deportation to Assyria and provincial annexation; medium claimed order of magnitude; low removed population share, household structure, mortality, exact destination allocation, and return history", "sources": [ { "title": "RINAP 1: Tiglath-pileser III and Shalmaneser V, text 21", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/downloads/Tadmor_Yamada_RINAP_1.pdf" }, { "title": "ORACC RINAP 1 text 21", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/Q003434" }, { "title": "ORACC Ancient Records of Assyria and Babylonia: Israel", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/saao/aebp/essentials/countries/israel/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "A 733 removal claim and the wider-record 732 annexation/provincial outcome form one event; exclude later Samaria repopulation.", "kind": "phased_campaign_to_annexation" }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.7157958529, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.9641460981, "unknown_bound_high": 95.0366809937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 26.0693607141, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4164541451, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.8566933303, "unknown_bound_high": 69.2112788172 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.9804454801, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0940476491 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.2079991435, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.2190236911, "unknown_bound_high": 83.329276521 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-assyrian-samaria-deportation-resettlement", "name": "Assyrian conquest, deportation, and repopulation of Samaria", "start": -722, "end": -720, "date_label": "722-720 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "state-directed deportation, annexation, and incoming settlement (provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser V and Sargon II", "Assyrian royal army and provincial administration" ], "victims": [ "Deported residents of Samaria", "Populations from other conquered lands, including Arabian groups, assigned to Samaria" ], "summary": "Between 722 and 720 BCE the Assyrian state conquered Samaria, deported part of its population, annexed and enlarged the city, and settled people from other conquered lands there. Sargon's inscriptions preserve variant claims of 27,280 or 27,290 deportees, but the conquest's division between Shalmaneser V and Sargon II remains debated.", "confidence": "high linked removal, annexation, and incoming settlement; medium order of magnitude as variant royal claims; low complete removed and incoming shares, household composition, mortality, and cohort-specific return history", "sources": [ { "title": "RINAP 2: Sargon II, text 1 and parallel accounts", "url": "https://build-oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/downloads/Frame_RINAP_2.pdf" }, { "title": "ORACC RINAP 2 Sargon II text 1", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/rinap2/Q006482" }, { "title": "ORACC Ancient Records of Assyria and Babylonia: Israel", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/saao/aebp/essentials/countries/israel/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.8809877459, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.8809877459, "unknown_bound_high": 88.8809877459 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 36.1188105759, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.1188105759, "unknown_bound_high": 36.1188105759 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.9804454801, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0940476491 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 70.33494466, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3973147125, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.9451083163, "unknown_bound_high": 88.2136370663 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 67.0684213127, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.7534236927, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8636765225 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 21.6364911699, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.9403466242, "unknown_bound_high": 31.4014454433 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-assyrian-carchemish-deportation-resettlement", "name": "Assyrian annexation of Carchemish, deportation, and settlement", "start": -717, "end": -717, "date_label": "717 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "selective dynastic and resident deportation, military incorporation, annexation, and Assyrian settlement (provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Sargon II", "Assyrian royal army and provincial administration" ], "victims": [ "King Pisiri, his family, and Carchemish residents designated culpable", "Carchemish infantry and other troops incorporated into Assyrian service", "Assyrian residents placed in the annexed city" ], "summary": "In 717 BCE Sargon II removed Pisiri, his dynasty, and residents identified as culpable to Assyria, incorporated 3,000 infantry and other troops into Assyrian service, annexed Carchemish, and settled Assyrians in the city. The 3,000 figure is a military incorporation count, not a total of civilian deportees.", "confidence": "high selective removal, annexation, military incorporation, and incoming settlement; low civilian scale, retained and incoming population shares, household composition, mortality, and long-term demographic composition", "sources": [ { "title": "RINAP 2: Sargon II, Carchemish passages", "url": "https://build-oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/downloads/Frame_RINAP_2.pdf" }, { "title": "ORACC RINAP 2 Carchemish text", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/rinap2/Q006590" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 32.1004942295, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.1004942295, "unknown_bound_high": 32.1004942295 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 58.9717180639, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4251178613, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.0699306615, "unknown_bound_high": 82.5581445298 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 45.7326248946, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5647834195, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.8290282697, "unknown_bound_high": 69.3506863218 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.9797011026, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.8854282839, "unknown_bound_high": 80.4404749901 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.2224505761, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 17.90816368 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-assyrian-bit-purutas-replacement", "name": "Removal of Ambaris and replacement settlement in Bit-Purutas and Tabal", "start": -713, "end": -713, "date_label": "713 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "elite removal, annexation, imported captive settlement, and corvee (provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Sargon II", "Assyrian royal army and provincial administration" ], "victims": [ "Ambaris, his dynasty, nobles, and military entourage", "People from other conquered lands assigned to the annexed territory" ], "summary": "In 713 BCE Sargon II removed Ambaris, his family, nobles, and military resources to Assyria, annexed Bit-Purutas and parts of Tabal, placed them under a governor, and settled people from other conquered lands there under corvee obligations. Neither the removed nor incoming population has a safe total.", "confidence": "high elite removal, annexation, imported settlement, and corvee; low source and destination population shares, incoming household composition, mortality, and long-term community history", "sources": [ { "title": "RINAP 2: Sargon II, text 1 Bit-Purutas and Tabal passage", "url": "https://build-oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/downloads/Frame_RINAP_2.pdf" }, { "title": "ORACC RINAP 2 Sargon II text 1", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/rinap2/Q006482" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 32.1004942295, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.1004942295, "unknown_bound_high": 32.1004942295 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 66.8324958215, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6068188842, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 40.5552205441, "unknown_bound_high": 79.873332122 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 45.7326248946, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5647834195, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.8290282697, "unknown_bound_high": 69.3506863218 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 45.1337248934, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.2190236911, "unknown_bound_high": 71.7740703973 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.2224505761, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 17.90816368 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-assyrian-til-garimme-replacement", "name": "Assyrian capture of Til-Garimme and repopulation of Kammanu", "start": -712, "end": -712, "date_label": "712 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "ruler-household and warrior removal, annexation, imported captive settlement, and corvee (provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Sargon II", "Assyrian royal army and provincial administration" ], "victims": [ "Tarhunazi, his household, and a claimed 5,000 captured warriors", "Captured populations, including Sutian archers, assigned to Kammanu" ], "summary": "In 712 BCE Sargon II removed Tarhunazi, his wife, sons, daughters, and a claimed 5,000 warriors to Assyria, reorganized Til-Garimme and Kammanu under direct administration, and placed other captive populations, including Sutian archers, in the territory under corvee. The military figure is not a total of civilian residents.", "confidence": "high linked removal, provincial reorganization, incoming captive placement, and corvee; medium claimed military scale; low civilian removal and incoming shares, household composition beyond the royal family, mortality, and later community history", "sources": [ { "title": "RINAP 2: Sargon II, text 1 lines 208b-217a and parallels", "url": "https://build-oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/downloads/Frame_RINAP_2.pdf" }, { "title": "ORACC RINAP 2 Sargon II text 1", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/rinap2/Q006482" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 32.1004942295, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.1004942295, "unknown_bound_high": 32.1004942295 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 57.5290276603, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.3199344684, "unknown_bound_high": 87.9517608139 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 67.282050306, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.8290282697, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4398469766 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.2079991435, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.2190236911, "unknown_bound_high": 83.329276521 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.2224505761, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 17.90816368 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-assyrian-babylonia-703-mass-deportation", "name": "Sennacherib's first-campaign deportation of southern Babylonian and Aramean communities", "start": -703, "end": -703, "date_label": "703 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "campaign-scale whole-community deportation without demonstrated source-land replacement (provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Sennacherib", "Assyrian royal army" ], "victims": [ "Residents of named Aramean groups and conquered settlements in southern Babylonia" ], "summary": "During Sennacherib's first campaign in 703 BCE, a royal inscription claims that 208,000 people, young and old, male and female, were carried from named Aramean groups and conquered southern Babylonian settlements into Assyria with their livestock. It does not identify final community allocations or a durable incoming population at every source location.", "confidence": "high campaign-scale mixed-age and mixed-sex deportation into Assyria; medium claimed order of magnitude; low source population share, final destination allocation, mortality, production outcomes, and later community history", "sources": [ { "title": "RINAP 3/2: Sennacherib, text 138, page 173", "url": "https://build-oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/downloads/Grayson_Novotny_RINAP_3_2.pdf" }, { "title": "ORACC RINAP 3 Sennacherib text 138", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/rinap3/Q003943" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 21.4651384551, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.4651384551, "unknown_bound_high": 21.4651384551 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 32.632323594, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.632323594, "unknown_bound_high": 32.632323594 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3116545288, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 90.4768577157 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 46.1068782004, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.7196619554, "unknown_bound_high": 72.2747086616 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.2224505761, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 17.90816368 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-assyrian-judah-deportation-land-transfer", "name": "Sennacherib's Judah campaign, deportation, and territorial transfer", "start": -701, "end": -701, "date_label": "701 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "conquest, whole-community removal, and transfer of captured towns to neighboring rulers (provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Sennacherib", "Assyrian royal army", "Beneficiary rulers of Ashdod, Ekron, and Gaza" ], "victims": [ "Residents of captured fortified cities and smaller settlements in Judah" ], "summary": "In 701 BCE Sennacherib's prism account claims forty-six fortified cities and many smaller settlements captured, 200,150 people removed, and captured Judahite towns detached and assigned to the rulers of Ashdod, Ekron, and Gaza. The inscription demonstrates territorial redistribution but not incoming settler replacement or one deportee destination.", "confidence": "high resident removal and explicit transfer of captured towns; medium claimed order of magnitude; low removed share, mortality, deportee destination, return history, and demographic outcome within the transferred towns", "sources": [ { "title": "RINAP 3/2: Sennacherib, Judah campaign account", "url": "https://build-oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/downloads/Grayson_Novotny_RINAP_3_2.pdf" }, { "title": "ORACC RINAP 3 canonical prism account", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/rinap3/Q003496" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 34.7059548372, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.7059548372, "unknown_bound_high": 34.7059548372 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 32.632323594, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.632323594, "unknown_bound_high": 32.632323594 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 46.3539423864, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.466892555, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.003980915, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.7534236927, "unknown_bound_high": 75.3084703989 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.2224505761, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 17.90816368 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-assyrian-sidon-destruction-kar-esarhaddon", "name": "Esarhaddon's destruction of Sidon and settlement of Kar-Esarhaddon", "start": -677, "end": -677, "date_label": "677 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "urban destruction, resident deportation, successor-city construction, and imported settlement (provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Esarhaddon", "Assyrian royal army and provincial administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of Sidon removed to Assyria", "Populations from the eastern mountains and the sea assigned to Kar-Esarhaddon and surrounding towns" ], "summary": "In 677 BCE Esarhaddon destroyed Sidon's political and urban center, executed its king, removed residents to Assyria, built the nearby successor city Kar-Esarhaddon, and populated it and surrounding towns with people from other conquered regions. The inscription's beyond-count language is rhetoric rather than a usable population total.", "confidence": "high destruction, resident removal, successor-city construction, and imported settlement; medium large-majority removal from the old city; low exact scale, incoming household composition, mortality, source-destination shares, and return history", "sources": [ { "title": "RINAP 4: Esarhaddon, Sidon and Kar-Esarhaddon passages", "url": "https://build-oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/downloads/Leichty_RINAP_4.pdf" }, { "title": "ORACC RINAP 4 Sidon account", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/Q003231" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.0004135459, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.0004135459, "unknown_bound_high": 92.0004135459 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 38.4358026857, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.4358026857, "unknown_bound_high": 38.4358026857 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 73.1239213662, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6489732266, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 47.4554671929, "unknown_bound_high": 82.5581445298 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 66.2494281933, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6600148423, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 43.725605903, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7241216707 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 11.6776142704, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.6776142704, "unknown_bound_high": 11.6776142704 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-assyrian-elam-susa-destruction-deportation", "name": "Ashurbanipal's destruction of Susa and mass removal from Elam", "start": -646, "end": -646, "date_label": "c. 646 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "multi-city destruction, resident deportation, institutional redistribution, and cult-property seizure without demonstrated source-land replacement (provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurbanipal", "Assyrian royal army and destination institutions" ], "victims": [ "Residents of Susa and other conquered Elamite cities", "Elamite royal and official households, artisans, specialists, men, women, young people, and elders" ], "summary": "Around 646 BCE Ashurbanipal's forces devastated Susa and other Elamite cities, attacked palaces, cult sites, groves, tombs, and property, carried mixed resident and specialist populations into Assyria, and distributed captives among the royal contingent, temples, governors, nobles, and army. The text's locust and total-emptying language is royal rhetoric, not a headcount or proof of literal regional depopulation.", "confidence": "high multi-city destruction, mixed resident removal into Assyria, and institutional redistribution; high Susa inclusion within the source region; low exact scale, removed population share, mortality, household integrity, return, and city-specific route allocation", "sources": [ { "title": "RINAP 5/1: Ashurbanipal, text 11 pages 249-252 and text 7 page 161", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/downloads/Novotny_Jeffers_RINAP_5_1.pdf" }, { "title": "ORACC RINAP 5 text Q003708", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/rinap5/Q003708" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 24.8639812829, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.8639812829, "unknown_bound_high": 24.8639812829 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 28.0897980214, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.0897980214, "unknown_bound_high": 28.0897980214 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.8149220292, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7580547586, "unknown_bound_high": 75.4401628104 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4610988192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-tumme-habhu", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II in Nimme/Tummu and Habhu", "start": -882.5, "end": -882.5, "date_label": "882/883 BCE (chronology disputed)", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "Campaign killing, prisoner-taking, destruction, local submission, tribute, tax, and corvee; prisoner destinations are unknown.", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Fighting men, unnumbered prisoners, mountain fugitives, and local submitters in the Nimme/Tummu, Habruri, and Habhu phases; these cohorts and outcomes remain separate" ], "summary": "In a campaign dated 882 BCE by ORACC and 883 BCE by Sano, the Nimme/Tummu, Habruri, and Habhu phases combine attributed military killing, unnumbered prisoner-taking, destruction, local submission, and imposed obligations. The 200 and 260 figures are military claims, not a civilian total, and the prisoners' final destination is unknown.", "confidence": "high on the bounded phased passage and its attributed actions; low or unknown on the exact absolute year, prisoner composition and destination, resident denominator, later return, labor, and successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004455", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, The Expansion of the Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II (2015)", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "previous_event_ids": [ "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-tumme-habhu-883" ], "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "Midpoint of the two permitted controls, ORACC 882 BCE and Sano 883 BCE, used only for statistical ordering.", "post_v5_id_change_reason": "The old suffix falsely resolves the ORACC 882 versus Sano 883 chronology conflict.", "post_v5_id_change_authority": "analysis/second_pass/v5/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_22_ADJUDICATION.md", "post_v5_source_calibration": "Bound to Q004455 i 43b-69a as one phased event. Nimme/Tummu is a source-name variant. Keep military claims of 200 and 260, unnumbered prisoners, local submitters/corvee, and the Bubu elite coda separate. Captive destination is unknown.", "post_v5_primary_family_override": "conquest_and_incorporation", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "POST_V5_SOURCE_REVIEW_OVERRIDE", "provenance": "post_v5_finite_correction_plan_v1", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.8809877459, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.8809877459, "unknown_bound_high": 88.8809877459 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 28.0884638025, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5502481242, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.4556245181, "unknown_bound_high": 60.4308121013 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 26.7182443592, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1390595235, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.7154263296, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-nipur-pasate", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II at Atkun, Ushhu, and Pilazi (Nipur-Pasate phase)", "start": -882.5, "end": -882.5, "date_label": "882/883 BCE (chronology disputed)", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "Campaign killing, burning, prisoner-taking, local submission, and continuing corvee obligations; prisoner destinations are unknown.", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Fighting men, prisoners, residents, and submitters associated with Atkun, Ushhu, Pilazi, and twenty neighboring cities; cohort overlap and population shares are unknown" ], "summary": "In a campaign dated 882 BCE by ORACC and 883 BCE by Sano, Ashurnasirpal II's account attributes killings, burning, and unnumbered prisoner-taking to Atkun, Ushhu, Pilazi, and neighboring cities, followed by local submission and continuing corvee. The carried prisoners' destination and the resident share affected are unknown.", "confidence": "high on the bounded passage and its attributed campaign actions; low or unknown on the exact absolute year, prisoner number and destination, resident denominator, later return, labor, and successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004455", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, The Expansion of the Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II (2015)", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "previous_event_ids": [ "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-nipur-pasate-883" ], "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "Midpoint of the two permitted controls, ORACC 882 BCE and Sano 883 BCE, used only for statistical ordering.", "post_v5_id_change_reason": "The old suffix falsely resolves the ORACC 882 versus Sano 883 chronology conflict.", "post_v5_id_change_authority": "analysis/second_pass/v5/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_21_ADJUDICATION.md", "post_v5_source_calibration": "Bound to Q004455 i 69b-73a. Killings, burning, prisoner-taking, local submission, and continuing corvee obligations are distinct facts. Prisoner number and destination are unknown; corvee-bearing submitters must not be treated as the carried-off captive cohort.", "post_v5_primary_family_override": "conquest_and_incorporation", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "POST_V5_SOURCE_REVIEW_OVERRIDE", "provenance": "post_v5_finite_correction_plan_v1", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.8809877459, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.8809877459, "unknown_bound_high": 88.8809877459 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 28.0884638025, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5502481242, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.4556245181, "unknown_bound_high": 60.4308121013 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 26.7182443592, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1390595235, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.7154263296, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-upper-tigris-nirbu-882", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II's Upper Tigris and Nirbu campaign", "start": -882, "end": -882, "date_label": "882 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "Campaign killing and prisoner-taking, local flight and return, Assyrian returnee settlement at Tushha, and imposed tribute, tax, corvee, and hostages.", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Kinabu, Mariri, Tela, and other Nirbu military, captive, and resident cohorts, whose outcomes differ within the account", "Assyrian famine returnees resettled at Tushha", "Local Nirbu returnees resettled in their abandoned cities and houses", "Hostages and later Ispilipria fugitives" ], "summary": "The 882 BCE passage contains distinct trajectories rather than one population stream: killed combatants and captives, carried-off prisoners of unknown destination, Assyrian famine returnees settled at Tushha, local Nirbu people returned to their abandoned cities and houses under heavier obligations, hostages, and later fugitives to Ispilipria. The attributed military and captive figures describe distinct cohorts rather than a cumulative resident census.", "confidence": "high on the bounded phased campaign and the separately attested cohort outcomes; low or unknown on cohort overlap, resident shares, transported-prisoner destinations, duration, later return, labor, and successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004455", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, The Expansion of the Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II (2015)", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "post_v5_source_calibration": "Bound to Q004455 i 101b-ii 19a. Keep killed captives, carried prisoners, Assyrian famine returnees settled at Tushha, local Nirbu returnees, hostages, and Ispilipria fugitives as separate cohorts with different outcomes.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.8809877459, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.8809877459, "unknown_bound_high": 88.8809877459 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 34.0669310708, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6306144511, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 21.4830990378, "unknown_bound_high": 58.4216539281 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.0776098405, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-zamua-881", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II's first Zamua campaign", "start": -881, "end": -881, "date_label": "881 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "Campaign killing, unnumbered prisoner-taking, attributed city destruction, and vassal incorporation through submission, payment, and corvee.", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Attributed military cohorts, unnumbered prisoners, and residents of the named Zamua cities; the source does not provide a civilian denominator or prisoner destination" ], "summary": "The 881 BCE account attributes military killing, unnumbered prisoner-taking, and destruction to named Zamua city groups, then records the submission of local kings, one imposed regional authority, payment, and corvee. Every human number in the passage is a military claim; 150 is a non-additive city count. The text does not establish durable depopulation, an Assyrian settler population, or a captive destination.", "confidence": "high on the bounded 881 campaign and its attributed destruction and vassal-incorporation outcome; low or unknown on civilian or resident totals, prisoner destinations, durable land vacancy, return, labor, and successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004455", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, The Expansion of the Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II (2015)", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "post_v5_source_calibration": "Bound to Q004455 ii 23b-47. Every human number is a military claim; 150 is a non-additive city count. Unnumbered captives have no known destination. Submission, one imposed regional authority, payment, and corvee support vassal incorporation, not settler implantation.", "post_v5_primary_family_override": "conquest_and_incorporation", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "POST_V5_SOURCE_REVIEW_OVERRIDE", "provenance": "post_v5_finite_correction_plan_v1", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.8809877459, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.8809877459, "unknown_bound_high": 88.8809877459 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 28.0884638025, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5502481242, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.4556245181, "unknown_bound_high": 60.4308121013 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 26.7182443592, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1390595235, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.7154263296, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-zamua-880", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II's second Zamua campaign", "start": -880, "end": -880, "date_label": "880 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal, flight, killing and destruction followed by vassal submission and institutional/military base-building at an abandoned site", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 880 BCE record describes forced removal flight killing and urban destruction. Residents flee or are pursued across Zamua as captives are removed and cities destroyed. The operation ends in local rulers' submission, heavier tribute, tax and corvée, and an institutional/military base at the already abandoned Atlila/Dūr-Aššur; an incoming settler population is not demonstrated. Keep separate from 881 because a new eponym, renewed default, a new operation, and a distinct end state are explicit; do not convert royal rhetoric into a population total.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo, Ashurnasirpal II inscription Q004455", "locator": "ii 49b–86a; exclude the 879 campaign beginning ii 86b", "role": "ancient_royal_inscription", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_24_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Second Zamua campaign, 880 BCE" }, "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, Die Expansion des assyrischen Reiches unter Aššurnaṣirpal II., Aula Orientalis 33/2 (2015), 323–331", "locator": "printed p. 330", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_24_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Second Zamua campaign, 880 BCE" }, "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" }, { "title": "Yamada (2020)", "locator": "DOI 10.13173/9783347114776_167; supplementary control; provincial timing and Atlila/Dūr-Aššur identification remain uncertain", "role": "modern_specialist_supplement", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_24_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Second Zamua campaign, 880 BCE" }, "url": "https://doi.org/10.13173/9783347114776_167" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "POST_V6_SOURCE_REVIEW_OVERRIDE", "provenance": "post_v6_cutoff_explicit_family_projection_v1:B24-01", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.1305326767, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.1305326767, "unknown_bound_high": 88.1305326767 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 39.6164323327, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3911855937, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.4973776037, "unknown_bound_high": 76.3788182304 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.0776098405, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 58.2312992199, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3716611322, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 84.4761973792 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-matiatu-879", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II's capture of Matiātu", "start": -879, "end": -879, "date_label": "879 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal of captives and local return of troops who fled, submitted, and were settled in their own cities", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "People affected by the capture of Matiātu; carried-off captives remain unnumbered", "Local troops who fled, submitted, and were settled in their own cities; not an incoming Assyrian population" ], "summary": "Q004455 ii 88b–91a describes carried-off captives as a cohort distinct from troops who fled, submitted, and were settled in their own cities. The 2,800 is an attributed fighting-men claim, not a resident census; civilian captives are unnumbered. Exclude Zazabuḫa beginning ii 91b and retain the separate Arbakki–Naʾiri event.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004455", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455", "locator": "Q004455 ii 88b–91a; exclude Zazabuḫa beginning ii 91b" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, Die Expansion des assyrischen Reiches unter Aššurnaṣirpal II., Aula Orientalis 33/2 (2015), 323–331", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 30.1360740411, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3911855937, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.7887980165, "unknown_bound_high": 72.6702386432 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.0776098405, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.602631969, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.1852619539, "unknown_bound_high": 80.2955147837 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-arbakki-nairi-879", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II's Arbakki and Naʾiri destruction and removal", "start": -879, "end": -879, "date_label": "879 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "flight killing forced removal and regional destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "Q004455 ii 112b–118a reports flight, killing, captive removal and regional destruction at Arbakki and Naʾiri. Its 1,000 men-at-arms, 200 soldiers, 2,000 attributed captives and later prisoners are distinct cohorts, not a combined civilian count. Tušḫa receives grain and straw, not an attested human transfer. Captive destinations, later vacancy, return and successor use are unknown; exclude the Bīt-Zamāni unit beginning ii 118b.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004455", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455", "locator": "Q004455 ii 112b–118a; exclude Bīt-Zamāni beginning ii 118b" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, Die Expansion des assyrischen Reiches unter Aššurnaṣirpal II., Aula Orientalis 33/2 (2015), 323–331", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.7157958529, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.9641460981, "unknown_bound_high": 95.0366809937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.9623764568, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2985059093, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1529109742, "unknown_bound_high": 77.30232004 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.0776098405, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-laqe-suhu-hindanu-878", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II's Lāqê Sūḫu and Ḫindānu suppression", "start": -878, "end": -878, "date_label": "878 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal and settlement destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 878 BCE record describes forced removal and settlement destruction. Captives leave linked Euphrates settlements while source communities are destroyed along one rebellion route. The separate 500-troop claim is excluded from civilian scale and final destinations are unknown.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004455", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, The Expansion of the Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II (2015)", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 17.6735175143, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 32.632323594 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.3234763075, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.2540619569, "unknown_bound_high": 87.3643147868 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4610988192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-kaprabi-kalhu-877", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II's destruction of Kaprabi and transfer toward Kalhu", "start": -877, "end": -877, "date_label": "877 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal city destruction and destination settlement (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 877 BCE record describes forced removal city destruction and destination settlement. Captive inhabitants leave destroyed Kaprabi toward Assyria while a separately claimed troop cohort is settled in Kalhu. The working date is probably 877 BCE; the 2500 figure is military and cannot stand for the resident stream.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004455", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, The Expansion of the Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II (2015)", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 19.9437307454, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.3199344684, "unknown_bound_high": 34.4900367588 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.3234763075, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.2540619569, "unknown_bound_high": 87.3643147868 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4610988192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-sangara-hatti-874-868", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II's Sangara Carchemish and Ḫatti removal", "start": -874, "end": -868, "date_label": "874–868 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal during western conquest (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 874–868 BCE record describes forced removal during western conquest. A restrained broad route leaves Sangara or Carchemish and Ḫatti with Ulluba shown as campaign context rather than a second destination. Only Balawat relief captions preserve the episode; exact date destination resident scale and caption geography remain uncertain.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004534", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004534" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004536", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004536" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004539", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004539" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004544", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004544" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004545", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004545" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, The Expansion of the Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II (2015)", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 17.6735175143, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 32.632323594 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.4630541383, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.7196619554, "unknown_bound_high": 83.8299147852 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4610988192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-umalia-hiranu-866", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II's Umalia and Ḫīrānu removals", "start": -866, "end": -866, "date_label": "866 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal killing and urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 866 BCE record describes forced removal killing and urban destruction. Captives leave the two fortresses and their surrounding cities as the source area is destroyed. No destination or resident count survives and the unit remains linked to but distinct from other 866 land outcomes.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004455", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, The Expansion of the Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II (2015)", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25.016451047, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.016451047, "unknown_bound_high": 25.016451047 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 17.6735175143, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 32.632323594 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4610988192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-mallanu-866", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II's direct taking of Mallānu", "start": -866, "end": -866, "date_label": "866 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "direct land taking and adjoining clearance (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 866 BCE record describes direct land taking and adjoining clearance. Mallānu changes to an Assyrian territorial footprint while adjoining Dirria and Zamba cities burn. Resident survival and the duration of Assyrian administration are unknown; no displacement stream is invented.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004455", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, The Expansion of the Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II (2015)", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.0771115175, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.0771115175, "unknown_bound_high": 84.0771115175 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 24.9978690457, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.9978690457, "unknown_bound_high": 24.9978690457 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 1.8577131648, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.8577131648, "unknown_bound_high": 1.8577131648 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 34.2532489782, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3116545288, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 79.5097272905 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 43.3234763075, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.2816251644, "unknown_bound_high": 77.3918779942 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.0264054219, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0264054219, "unknown_bound_high": 6.0264054219 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-damdammusu-866", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II's recapture and captive removal at Damdammusu", "start": -866, "end": -866, "date_label": "866 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal resident killing and direct land taking (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 866 BCE record describes forced removal resident killing and direct land taking. A claimed 3000 captives leave Damdammusu as Assyria retakes the city and attacks the adjoining royal center Amēdu. The 600 dead and 400 live soldiers are military controls and must not inflate resident scale; no incoming replacement population is documented.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004455", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, The Expansion of the Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II (2015)", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 28.3967118735, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.3967118735, "unknown_bound_high": 28.3967118735 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 17.6735175143, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 32.632323594 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.2224505761, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 17.90816368 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-udu-866", "name": "Ashurnasirpal II's removal and direct taking of Udu", "start": -866, "end": -866, "date_label": "866 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal resident killing and direct land taking (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 866 BCE record describes forced removal resident killing and direct land taking. A claimed 3000 captives and an unnumbered remainder leave Udu for Assyria as the city changes to direct Assyrian control. The 1400 dead and 780 captured soldiers remain separate from the resident stream and the wording of the remainder is preserved as uncertain.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004455", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455" }, { "title": "Katsuji Sano, The Expansion of the Assyrian Empire under Ashurnasirpal II (2015)", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 28.3967118735, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.3967118735, "unknown_bound_high": 28.3967118735 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 17.6735175143, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 32.632323594 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.2224505761, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 17.90816368 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-accession-northeast-859", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Aridu and Ḫubuškia clearances", "start": -859, "end": -859, "date_label": "859 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "resident killing and regional urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 859 BCE record describes resident killing and regional urban destruction. Resident marks extinguish at Aridu while Ḫubuškia and surrounding cities burn along the northeastern route. No destination or durable successor use is established and claimed city extent is not a census.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004611", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004611" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 3.7154263296, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.7154263296, "unknown_bound_high": 3.7154263296 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7892656511, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-hatti-patin-858", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Patin and Hatti removals", "start": -858, "end": -858, "date_label": "858 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal killing and city destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 858 BCE record describes forced removal killing and city destruction. Captive routes leave Patin or Hatti toward Aššur while named source cities are attacked and Urime is destroyed. The 4600 versus 14600 Patin figures and the 22000 Hatti figure differ by recension or scope and are never summed.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004607", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004607" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004608", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004608" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004610", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004610" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25.016451047, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.016451047, "unknown_bound_high": 25.016451047 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 17.6735175143, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 32.632323594 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4610988192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-bit-adini-857-855", "name": "Shalmaneser III's conquest and Assyrian settlement of Bīt-Adini", "start": -857, "end": -855, "date_label": "857–855 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "direct land taking incoming assyrian settlement flight and forced removal (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source", "Populations placed, returned, or installed under Assyrian direction where explicitly documented" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 857–855 BCE record describes direct land taking incoming assyrian settlement flight and forced removal. Aḫūnu's flight and later removal move outward while Assyrian settlement marks appear at Tīl-Barsip and adjoining cities. The 17500 or 22000 cohort is partly called troops and cannot serve as a civilian census; local continuity is uneven.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004607", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004607" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004610", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004610" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004611", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004611" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 38.1279687491, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.1279687491, "unknown_bound_high": 38.1279687491 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 57.5290276603, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.3199344684, "unknown_bound_high": 87.9517608139 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 54.4714552831, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3973147125, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 81.9108393452 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 67.0684213127, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.7534236927, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8636765225 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.2224505761, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 17.90816368 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-urartu-nairi-856", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Urarṭu and Naʾiri clearances and Šilaia removal", "start": -856, "end": -856, "date_label": "856 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "flight forced removal and urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 856 BCE record describes flight forced removal and urban destruction. Residents abandon Arṣaškun-area cities while destruction spreads along the route and a claimed 3000 captives leave Šilaia for Aššur. Several polities share one annual route and no population denominator survives.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004607", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004607" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004611", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004611" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25.016451047, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.016451047, "unknown_bound_high": 25.016451047 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 22.2139439765, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 36.3477499236 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4610988192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-balih-outposts-853", "name": "Shalmaneser III's taking of Balīḫ outposts", "start": -853, "end": -853, "date_label": "853 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "direct land taking and assyrian outpost formation (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source", "Populations placed, returned, or installed under Assyrian direction where explicitly documented" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 853 BCE record describes direct land taking and assyrian outpost formation. Tīl-ša-turāḫi and Sahlala change to Assyrian-controlled outpost footprints with palace and cultic markers. Only palace personnel are explicitly transported and wider demographic replacement is an inference.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004607", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004607" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004611", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004611" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.4288586628, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.4288586628, "unknown_bound_high": 86.4288586628 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 34.7291259213, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.7291259213, "unknown_bound_high": 34.7291259213 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 57.5290276603, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.3199344684, "unknown_bound_high": 87.9517608139 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.3255104302, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 89.0328695747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 43.3234763075, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.2816251644, "unknown_bound_high": 77.3918779942 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 5.4470648608, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 5.4470648608 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-hamath-853", "name": "Shalmaneser III's taking and destruction of Hamath's royal cities", "start": -853, "end": -853, "date_label": "853 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "city taking captive or booty removal and destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 853 BCE record describes city taking captive or booty removal and destruction. Atinnu Pargâ and Arganâ lose captives or property as their palaces burn; the route remains broad because no destination is stated. Unnumbered šallatu is ambiguous and Qarqar army losses are excluded.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004607", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004607" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 21.6176082192, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6176082192, "unknown_bound_high": 21.6176082192 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 24.3752268893, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7089831509, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 17.2816251644, "unknown_bound_high": 46.3833100723 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-til-abne-852", "name": "Shalmaneser III's conquest and outpost formation at Tīl-abnē", "start": -852, "end": -852, "date_label": "852 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "direct land taking and urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source", "Populations placed, returned, or installed under Assyrian direction where explicitly documented" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 852 BCE record describes direct land taking and urban destruction. Tīl-abnē and adjoining cities burn before the place changes to an Assyrian outpost footprint. The outpost or annexation interpretation is specialist reconstruction and no resident destination is known.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004611", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004611" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.4288586628, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.4288586628, "unknown_bound_high": 86.4288586628 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 34.7291259213, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.7291259213, "unknown_bound_high": 34.7291259213 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 57.5290276603, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.3199344684, "unknown_bound_high": 87.9517608139 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.3255104302, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 89.0328695747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.1838984767, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.8160251659, "unknown_bound_high": 80.9262779957 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 5.4470648608, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 5.4470648608 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-babylonia-851", "name": "Shalmaneser III's first Babylonian punitive campaign", "start": -851, "end": -851, "date_label": "851 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "resident killing and subsistence destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 851 BCE record describes resident killing and subsistence destruction. Resident marks extinguish at Mê-Turnat while Gannanāte's harvest gardens and canals are erased. The campaign supports a Babylonian ally and establishes neither Assyrian settlement nor a destination stream.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004610", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004610" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004611", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004611" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7892656511, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-babylonia-850", "name": "Shalmaneser III's second Babylonian punitive campaign", "start": -850, "end": -850, "date_label": "850 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "resident killing and urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 850 BCE record describes resident killing and urban destruction. Laḫīru Gannanāte and Ḫalman undergo linked capture massacre and plunder with no normal destination arrow. The slain rebel and soldiers are not used as resident scale and later city continuity is unknown.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004610", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004610" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004611", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004611" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7892656511, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-carchemish-bit-agusi-849", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Carchemish and Bīt-Agūsi clearances", "start": -849, "end": -849, "date_label": "849 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "resident killing and regional urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 849 BCE record describes resident killing and regional urban destruction. Sangara's cities and Arnê with surrounding settlements burn while resident marks fade or extinguish. No destination or successor settlement is established and coalition army losses are excluded.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004611", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004611" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7892656511, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-western-clearances-848", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Carchemish Bīt-Agūsi and Hamath clearances", "start": -848, "end": -848, "date_label": "848 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "resident killing and regional urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 848 BCE record describes resident killing and regional urban destruction. A continuous western route extinguishes resident and city marks across Carchemish Bīt-Agūsi Aštammaku and adjoining Hamath settlements. Royal city totals are claims and no destination or durable land use is known.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004611", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004611" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7892656511, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-paqarhubuni-847", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Paqarḫubuni mountain pursuit", "start": -847, "end": -847, "date_label": "847 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "flight to refuge resident killing and clearance (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 847 BCE record describes flight to refuge resident killing and clearance. A flight route rises from Paqarḫubuni to a mountain refuge and ends in massacre and property removal rather than a destination settlement. No safe count destination or return history survives.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004611", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004611" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25.016451047, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.016451047, "unknown_bound_high": 25.016451047 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 3.7154263296, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.7154263296, "unknown_bound_high": 3.7154263296 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 67.3946328256, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.8835486404, "unknown_bound_high": 86.9938014702 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-matiatu-846", "name": "Shalmaneser III's destruction of Matiātu", "start": -846, "end": -846, "date_label": "846 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "resident killing and city clearance (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 846 BCE record describes resident killing and city clearance. Matiātu's resident and city marks extinguish together with no outward migration arrow. No destination successor population or reliable resident count is established.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004611", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004611" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.2770846054, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8152528685, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.478341948, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 78.7752196635, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7557185522, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 59.5318949549, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-suhnu-enzi-844", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Sūḫnu and Enzi clearances", "start": -844, "end": -844, "date_label": "844 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "resident killing and regional urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 844 BCE record describes resident killing and regional urban destruction. Seven fortress nodes and surrounding settlements fade along one return route as inhabitants are massacred and property removed. No destination or successor settlement is known.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004611", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004611" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7892656511, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-damascus-hauran-841", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Damascus campaign and Ḫaurān clearances", "start": -841, "end": -841, "date_label": "841 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "regional urban destruction and property removal (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 841 BCE record describes regional urban destruction and property removal. After a separately coded battlefield phase the Ḫaurān city field burns and property moves outward without a precise destination. Army deaths are excluded from resident mortality and the annal does not quantify displaced inhabitants.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004613", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004613" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 21.6176082192, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6176082192, "unknown_bound_high": 21.6176082192 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 29.3603947271, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7089831509, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 20.8160251659, "unknown_bound_high": 49.9177100738 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-que-839", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Que fortified-city clearances", "start": -839, "end": -839, "date_label": "839 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "resident killing and regional urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 839 BCE record describes resident killing and regional urban destruction. Lusanda Abarnāni Kisuatni and adjoining cities lose resident marks as the campaign traverses Que. No destination incoming settlement or durable occupation is established.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7892656511, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-damascus-838-837", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Malaḫu and Danabu clearances", "start": -838, "end": -837, "date_label": "838–837 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "resident killing and urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 838–837 BCE record describes resident killing and urban destruction. Two dated pulses strike Malaḫu Danabu and adjoining Damascus cities with massacre plunder and burning. The annal conflates 838 and 837 BCE so exact city-to-year assignments are forbidden.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7892656511, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-melid-835", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Melid capture and flight clearances", "start": -835, "end": -835, "date_label": "835 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "flight city taking and urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 835 BCE record describes flight city taking and urban destruction. Uetaš is captured while a neighboring population abandons its city before destruction; the route has no supported destination. The key passage is damaged and no resident count or successor use survives.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7892656511, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-namri-east-834", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Namri and eastern-city punitive route", "start": -834, "end": -834, "date_label": "834 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "flight resident killing forced removal and regional destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 834 BCE record describes flight resident killing forced removal and regional destruction. Namri survivors flee to a mountain and are attacked; Ianzû's cohort moves to Assyria while farther-eastern city and resident marks extinguish along the same route. The transported cohort is partly elite and military and the source provides no full resident denominator.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25.016451047, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.016451047, "unknown_bound_high": 25.016451047 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 22.2139439765, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 36.3477499236 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4610988192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-que-timur-833-832", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Que campaign at Timur", "start": -833, "end": -832, "date_label": "833–832 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "resident killing and regional urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 833–832 BCE record describes resident killing and regional urban destruction. Timur and surrounding cities lose resident and city marks during one of two Que campaign years. The annals omit or conflate one campaign and do not support choosing 833 or 832 BCE.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7892656511, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-muru-833-832", "name": "Shalmaneser III's taking of Mūru as an Assyrian outpost", "start": -833, "end": -832, "date_label": "833–832 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "direct land taking and assyrian outpost formation (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source", "Populations placed, returned, or installed under Assyrian direction where explicitly documented" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 833–832 BCE record describes direct land taking and assyrian outpost formation. Mūru changes to an Assyrian fortress and royal-palace footprint without an invented outgoing population arrow. The source reports no attack or resident removal and vassal cooperation is possible; date is limited to 833–832 BCE.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.4288586628, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.4288586628, "unknown_bound_high": 86.4288586628 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 34.7291259213, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.7291259213, "unknown_bound_high": 34.7291259213 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 57.5290276603, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.3199344684, "unknown_bound_high": 87.9517608139 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 27.8077828451, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 72.2859988768 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 23.9304499945, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7221604762, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 17.2816251644, "unknown_bound_high": 45.0655775415 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 5.4470648608, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 5.4470648608 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-que-lamena-831", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Que mountain flight and clearance", "start": -831, "end": -831, "date_label": "831 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "flight to refuge resident killing urban destruction and regime change (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 831 BCE record describes flight to refuge resident killing urban destruction and regime change. People flee to Mount Lamena and are massacred while cities burn; Tarsus then receives a new local ruler but no incoming population marker. No destination count or replacement settlement is established.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25.016451047, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.016451047, "unknown_bound_high": 25.016451047 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 67.3946328256, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.8835486404, "unknown_bound_high": 86.9938014702 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 6.9900899924, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0264054219, "unknown_bound_high": 19.8128455333 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-parsua-826", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Parsua massacre and clearance", "start": -826, "end": -826, "date_label": "826 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "resident killing and regional urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 826 BCE record describes resident killing and regional urban destruction. Puštu Šalaḫamānu Kiniḫamānu and surrounding cities lose resident and city marks with no outward destination route. No count successor use or return history survives.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 3.7154263296, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.7154263296, "unknown_bound_high": 3.7154263296 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 59.7892656511, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shalmaneser-namri-826", "name": "Shalmaneser III's Namri mass flight and urban destruction", "start": -826, "end": -826, "date_label": "826 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "flight and regional urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Shalmaneser III", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 826 BCE record describes flight and regional urban destruction. A broad flight rises from Namri cities toward a rugged mountain while a claimed 250 city nodes fade or burn. The 250-city extent is a royal claim and no destination return or population count survives.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004619", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004619" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004621", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004621" }, { "title": "Shigeo Yamada, The Construction of the Assyrian Empire (2000)", "url": "https://sites.dlib.nyu.edu/viewer/books/brill_awdl000069/1" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 3.7154263296, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.7154263296, "unknown_bound_high": 3.7154263296 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 33.6394269344, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7089831509, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 52.9514718111 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 13.7864401114 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shamshi-second-nairi-819", "name": "Šamši-Adad V's second Naʾiri removal campaign", "start": -819, "end": -819, "date_label": "819 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal and regional urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Šamši-Adad V", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 819 BCE record describes forced removal and regional urban destruction. Sons daughters gods and property move away from conquered Naʾiri cities as hundreds of source settlements burn. The destination and headcount are unknown and the absolute campaign date remains a reconstructed correlation.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004738", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004738" }, { "title": "Alexander Johannes Edmonds, Triumph and Betrayal (2025)", "url": "https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/9783111593715/html" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 22.2139439765, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 36.3477499236 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.977134222, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.2540619569, "unknown_bound_high": 75.8091086631 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4610988192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shamshi-third-zagros-818", "name": "Šamši-Adad V's Zagros flight and clearance campaign", "start": -818, "end": -818, "date_label": "818 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "flight resident killing family capture and regional destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Šamši-Adad V", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 818 BCE record describes flight resident killing family capture and regional destruction. Flight-to-mountain patterns repeat through Missi Gizilbunda and Median areas while sons and daughters are seized in Araziaš and cities are destroyed along one route. The very large city and casualty figures are royal claims and the reconstructed absolute date remains uncertain.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004738", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004738" }, { "title": "Alexander Johannes Edmonds, Triumph and Betrayal (2025)", "url": "https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/9783111593715/html" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25.016451047, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.016451047, "unknown_bound_high": 25.016451047 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 22.2139439765, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 36.3477499236 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.8742369367, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 78.8428704004 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4610988192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shamshi-fourth-babylonia-815", "name": "Šamši-Adad V's fourth Babylonian removal and destruction campaign", "start": -815, "end": -815, "date_label": "815 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal refugee concentration resident killing and urban destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Šamši-Adad V", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 815 BCE record describes forced removal refugee concentration resident killing and urban destruction. Mê-Turnat residents move to Assyria; other city cohorts are removed; refugees concentrate at Dūr-Papsukkal where soldiers are killed or incorporated and the city is destroyed. The Dūr-Papsukkal civilian fate is not explicit enough for a separate event or a population count and the absolute date is reconstructed.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004738", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004738" }, { "title": "Alexander Johannes Edmonds, Triumph and Betrayal (2025)", "url": "https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/9783111593715/html" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25.016451047, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.016451047, "unknown_bound_high": 25.016451047 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 17.6735175143, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 32.632323594 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4610988192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "early-neo-assyrian-shamshi-fifth-der-814", "name": "Šamši-Adad V's Dēr captive removal", "start": -814, "end": -814, "date_label": "814 BCE", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "forced removal and city destruction (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Neo-Assyrian Empire under Šamši-Adad V", "Assyrian army and royal administration" ], "victims": [ "Residents of the named cities, districts, and refuge zones described in the source" ], "summary": "The source-bounded 814 BCE record describes forced removal and city destruction. A large claimed captive stream leaves Dēr while its palace and urban footprint are destroyed. The claimed 30000 total and damaged passage require attribution and the absolute date is reconstructed.", "confidence": "high on the source-bounded campaign and stated resident–land outcome; medium on exact route geography; low where the source lacks population denominators, final destinations, survivor trajectories, or successor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004739", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004739" }, { "title": "ORACC RIAo royal inscription Q004741", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004741" }, { "title": "Alexander Johannes Edmonds, Triumph and Betrayal (2025)", "url": "https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/9783111593715/html" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "second_pass_ancient_crosswalk", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.3170296331, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3170296331, "unknown_bound_high": 23.3170296331 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 17.6735175143, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 32.632323594 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.9396617744, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4925461353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 72.387697061 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 68.3234763075, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.2540619569, "unknown_bound_high": 87.3643147868 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4610988192 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-pometia-destruction-503-495", "name": "Pometia surrender, captive sale, destruction, and reported land sale", "start": null, "end": null, "date_label": "c. 502 or 495 BCE; defection reported in 503", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest, execution, captive sale, city destruction, and alienation of the land without a documented successor settlement (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman consuls and army" ], "victims": [ "Residents and civic community of Pometia" ], "summary": "Livy narrates Pometia's revolt, surrender, beheading of leading men, sale of the remaining townspeople, razing of the town, and sale of its land; a later capture-and-pillage notice may duplicate or telescope the same disappearance Evidence limit: The site remains uncertain, the Livian chronology contains probable duplication, no enslaved destinations survive, and the dramatic totality is a retrospective annalistic account", "confidence": "medium on one source-critical destruction event and high on the Livian surrender-execution-sale-land sequence as transmitted; low on chronology, site, population totals, enslaved destinations, successor land use, and the annalistic account's literal completeness", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_02.htm" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: researchgate.net", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274388600_Las_llamadas_priscae_Latinae_coloniae" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "surrender_execution_enslavement_destruction_and_land_sale", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-pometia-destruction-503-495", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "pometia_duplicate_annalistic_dates", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The site remains uncertain, the Livian chronology contains probable duplication, no enslaved destinations survive, and the dramatic totality is a retrospective annalistic account" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The site remains uncertain, the Livian chronology contains probable duplication, no enslaved destinations survive, and the dramatic totality is a retrospective annalistic account" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The site remains uncertain, the Livian chronology contains probable duplication, no enslaved destinations survive, and the dramatic totality is a retrospective annalistic account" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The site remains uncertain, the Livian chronology contains probable duplication, no enslaved destinations survive, and the dramatic totality is a retrospective annalistic account" }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The site remains uncertain, the Livian chronology contains probable duplication, no enslaved destinations survive, and the dramatic totality is a retrospective annalistic account" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The site remains uncertain, the Livian chronology contains probable duplication, no enslaved destinations survive, and the dramatic totality is a retrospective annalistic account" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 3 records the transmitted combination of execution, physical removal through captive sale, and juridical-civic erasure through destruction and land sale; it does not add assimilation or narrative-erasure machinery." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 4 is bounded to Livy's statement that Pometia was razed and its land sold; it does not extend to an unlocated wider territory or make the annalistic account a cadastral record." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "Score 4 records the source's immediate liquidation of the conquered community's land by sale, while buyers, prices, and parcels remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 4 records razing and withdrawal of the bounded urban landscape from its prior civic use; the later productive use of the alienated land remains unknown." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 4 follows the source-bounded sequence in which leaders were executed and the remaining townspeople sold after surrender; it is an attributed annalistic totality claim, not a recovered census." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 preserves the eight-year source-critical date range instead of pretending the duplicated or telescoped annalistic notices identify a single day." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 4 records sale of the surviving townspeople into slavery as a custodial legal regime; their destinations and conditions are unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 4 records the combined destruction of the town, removal of its community, alienation of the land, and durable disappearance of Pometia, not a separate legal return ban." } ], "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Competing annalistic notices for one source-critical event, not a 503–495 duration or two destructions.", "kind": "alternative_dates", "alternatives": [ -502, -495 ], "context_dates": [ -503 ] }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.7512821609, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.7512821609, "unknown_bound_high": 84.7512821609 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 48.5494945282, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.5494945282, "unknown_bound_high": 48.5494945282 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 71.6318263455 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 62.1133354283, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5525527387, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.3208936012, "unknown_bound_high": 79.0656197304 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 87.5515022859, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.1945240859, "unknown_bound_high": 93.4318382612 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 12.9900472717, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.8641520454, "unknown_bound_high": 80.81533278 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-velitrae-conquest-colony-494-492", "name": "Roman conquest, settlement, and compelled reinforcement of Velitrae", "start": -494, "end": -492, "date_label": "494 and 492 BCE; possibly duplicated or telescoped", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest and colonial settlement in an existing city, including compelled Roman reinforcement and strong local continuity (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman magistrates and colonists at Velitrae" ], "victims": [ "Volscian and local residents affected by conquest and allotment", "Roman citizens compelled into the 492 BCE reinforcement" ], "summary": "The sources place a Roman victory over Volscian-controlled Velitrae in 494, a colony in the existing city, and a 492 reinforcement whose Roman recruits were compelled after resistance; later history shows strong local and Volscian continuity Evidence limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion", "confidence": "high on conquest, colonial placement, and compulsory reinforcement; high on later local and Volscian continuity; low on legal form, settler shares, prior parcels, resident removal, forced-recruit proportion, household composition, and one-generation status", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_02.htm" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: researchgate.net", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274388600_Las_llamadas_priscae_Latinae_coloniae" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "conquest_mixed_settlement_and_compelled_incomer_reinforcement", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-velitrae-conquest-colony-494-492", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "velitrae_sequence", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "The legal freedom and full composition of the incoming cohort are not recoverable. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The legal form, settler shares, local parcels, and scale of prior-resident land loss are disputed; forced recruitment concerns incoming colonists, not proof of wholesale Indigenous expulsion" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 0 records that conquest and settlement are secure but no prior-resident killing, removal, assimilation, status-erasure, or narrative-erasure mode is positively documented." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 2 records a real Roman settlement layer repeatedly challenged by strong local and Volscian continuity rather than either total reversal or uncomplicated consolidation." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated removal of prior Velitraean residents; compulsory movement of incoming Roman recruits is represented separately." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated prior-resident displacement and later strong local continuity." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 3 records the acute compelled reinforcement of incoming Roman citizens, not a prior-population expulsion." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records state compulsion tied to civic recruitment and refusal rather than an ascriptive victim category." } ], "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "One same-place sequence with initial settlement and reinforcement as separately dated internal steps; no continuous-duration inference.", "kind": "internal_milestones", "milestone_years": [ -494, -492 ] }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.2669322329, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.7854412739, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8579761695 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 32.9938094932, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3554260103, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.7268580716, "unknown_bound_high": 76.1842570452 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.4630541383, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.7472251629, "unknown_bound_high": 73.8574779927 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 35.8602393944, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.3916595267, "unknown_bound_high": 43.8527583459 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-antium-conquest-integrated-colony-468-467", "name": "Antium conquest, Volscian land division, and integrated colony", "start": -468, "end": -467, "date_label": "468–467 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest and partial land division into a mixed Antiate, Latin, Hernician, and Roman-backed settlement with explicit local continuity (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman colonial commissioners" ], "victims": [ "Volscian and Antiate prior possessors whose captured land was divided" ], "summary": "Livy explicitly grounds the colony in land captured from the Volsci and says colonization would avoid complaints from existing possessors; Dionysius reports that Antiates, Latins, and Hernici joined because Roman recruitment was weak and that part of the land remained with Antiates. Evidence limit: The constitutional label and narrative details are disputed; no total settler count, parcel map, or wholesale Antiate removal is supported", "confidence": "high on captured Volscian land, mixed participation, and retention of part of the land by Antiates; medium on the integrated settlement; low on constitutional label, settler total, exact shares, parcel map, and individual displacement", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: researchgate.net", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274388600_Las_llamadas_priscae_Latinae_coloniae" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_03.htm" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "conquest_partial_land_division_and_integrated_settlement", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-antium-conquest-integrated-colony-468-467", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "antium_early_and_338", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The constitutional label and narrative details are disputed; no total settler count, parcel map, or wholesale Antiate removal is supported" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The constitutional label and narrative details are disputed; no total settler count, parcel map, or wholesale Antiate removal is supported" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The constitutional label and narrative details are disputed; no total settler count, parcel map, or wholesale Antiate removal is supported" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The constitutional label and narrative details are disputed; no total settler count, parcel map, or wholesale Antiate removal is supported" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The constitutional label and narrative details are disputed; no total settler count, parcel map, or wholesale Antiate removal is supported" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The constitutional label and narrative details are disputed; no total settler count, parcel map, or wholesale Antiate removal is supported" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The constitutional label and narrative details are disputed; no total settler count, parcel map, or wholesale Antiate removal is supported" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The constitutional label and narrative details are disputed; no total settler count, parcel map, or wholesale Antiate removal is supported" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The constitutional label and narrative details are disputed; no total settler count, parcel map, or wholesale Antiate removal is supported" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The constitutional label and narrative details are disputed; no total settler count, parcel map, or wholesale Antiate removal is supported" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The constitutional label and narrative details are disputed; no total settler count, parcel map, or wholesale Antiate removal is supported" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records an integrated settlement that retained Antiates as possessors and participants rather than designing an economy independent of them." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 1 records localized land loss constrained by explicit Antiate continuity; it does not assert a numerical resident-removal fraction beyond the lowest nonzero bin." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no positively documented resident removal from Antium despite secure partial land transfer." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "Score 4 records Antiates as a major named component of the integrated successor community and continuing holders of part of the land; it is a membership judgment, not a genetic estimate." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile and explicit continuing Antiate possession." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode; rapid colonial organization is measured separately." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 0 records Antiates participating inside the successor settlement and retaining part of the land, while not claiming that every prior possessor received equal treatment." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.1524790504, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.9815650456, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0540999412 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 43.9255659206, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7152964327, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 31.4198006073, "unknown_bound_high": 59.8901573373 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 20.5309720407, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7238769706, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 14.8618978445, "unknown_bound_high": 42.4742007835 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 26.0906979253, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 52.4630949518 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 20.9156810645, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.9156810645, "unknown_bound_high": 20.9156810645 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-ardea-taking-restitution-reorganization-446-442", "name": "Ager Coriolanus seizure, Ardeate protest, and local colonial restitution", "start": -446, "end": -442, "date_label": "446–442 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state abuse of arbitration to seize disputed land followed by protest, political crisis, and locally weighted restitution or reorganization (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman arbiters, Senate, and colonial commissioners" ], "victims": [ "Ardeate and Arician claimants to the Ager Coriolanus" ], "summary": "After Ardea and Aricia submitted a land dispute to Roman arbitration, Rome declared the territory Roman public land; following Ardeate protest and civil conflict, the 442 settlement assigned it first and chiefly to Rutulian or Ardeate colonists, effectively returning the land Evidence limit: The disputed territory's exact bounds are unknown, any incoming Roman component is uncounted, and the final arrangement is not demographic replacement", "confidence": "high on Roman appropriation through arbitration and the later locally weighted land assignment; medium on effective restitution; low on exact bounds, parcel shares, incoming Romans, individual movement, and legal status", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_04.htm" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: researchgate.net", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274388600_Las_llamadas_priscae_Latinae_coloniae" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "legal_land_seizure_followed_by_local_restitution", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-ardea-taking-restitution-reorganization-446-442", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The disputed territory's exact bounds are unknown, few or no incoming Romans may have received land, and the final arrangement is not demographic replacement" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The disputed territory's exact bounds are unknown, few or no incoming Romans may have received land, and the final arrangement is not demographic replacement" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The disputed territory's exact bounds are unknown, few or no incoming Romans may have received land, and the final arrangement is not demographic replacement" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The disputed territory's exact bounds are unknown, few or no incoming Romans may have received land, and the final arrangement is not demographic replacement" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "Score 2 records two city polities submitting a dispute to Roman arbitration and Rome abusing that recognized procedure to claim the land for itself." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 0 records the locally weighted 442 restitution or reorganization that substantially undid Rome's 446 appropriation." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 0 records a land-title taking without demonstrated resident removal and a final locally weighted assignment." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated movement and therefore no stream above the codebook's lowest magnitude bin; it is not a claim that a known count moved." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "Score 4 records the final assignment chiefly to Rutulian or Ardeate participants, so the reorganized community remained overwhelmingly local in membership." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records an appropriation initially effected through a state legal-administrative decision rather than a removal operation under armed custody." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records restitution within the event sequence and no documented population exile." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 0 records the reversal of Rome's land claim; it does not deny Rome's wider regional power." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.0218700817, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.0218700817, "unknown_bound_high": 77.0218700817 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 45.4813342456, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.7478318439, "unknown_bound_high": 55.9502201348 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 71.6318263455 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 52.0571862371, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5525527387, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.7643408248, "unknown_bound_high": 73.5090669539 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 15.5049186011, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 45.6545448443 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 8.9019988575, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.9019988575, "unknown_bound_high": 8.9019988575 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-fidenae-exile-land-reallocation-428", "name": "Fidenate exile, colonist reinforcement, and land reallocation", "start": -428, "end": -428, "date_label": "428 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state punitive exile, reinforcement of a colonial community, and transfer of specific war-dead land while most resident continuity remains possible (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman magistrates and colonists at Fidenae" ], "victims": [ "Fidenates selected for exile and holders of land reassigned after the war" ], "summary": "Livy says some Fidenates were relegated to Ostia, the number of colonists was increased, and land of those killed in war was assigned to the colonists. Evidence limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed", "confidence": "high on a bounded 428 BCE exile-reinforcement-reallocation episode; medium on its partial character; low on the number and identity of exiles, colonist origins, household composition, exact parcels, later status, and return", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_04.htm" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: researchgate.net", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274388600_Las_llamadas_priscae_Latinae_coloniae" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "partial_exile_colonist_reinforcement_and_parcel_reallocation", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-fidenae-exile-land-reallocation-428", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "fidenae_428_426", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The number and identity of exiles, their status at Ostia, the colonists' origins, and the parcels are unknown; land of war dead is not proof that every prior holder was removed" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "Score 3 records reinforcement of a durable landholding colonial community while stopping below family-complete score 4 because no colonist household profile survives." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 1 records the rapid breakdown of the 428 settlement order in the renewed Fidenate conflict before Rome imposed a materially different 426 outcome." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 1 records a textually partial exile affecting some Fidenates plus war-dead holders, while refusing to infer a larger removal from the later conquest." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 1 records the named short-distance exile from Fidenae to Ostia within the contiguous Roman region." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records a punitive selection tied to investigated wartime conduct rather than an inescapable descent category; the source does not imply all Fidenates were targeted." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 1 records substantial reversal in the renewed 426 conflict; Rome's later definitive sovereignty is coded in the separate 426 event." } ], "metadata_qualitative_display_reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/BATCH_30_PUBLIC_TRAIT_DISPLAY_OVERRIDES.json", "locator": "/cases/gr-roman-fidenae-exile-land-reallocation-428" }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.3035749978, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.3035749978, "unknown_bound_high": 86.3035749978 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 51.7682555208, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.8275140842, "unknown_bound_high": 61.0299023751 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.1399792486, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.0872456634, "unknown_bound_high": 84.6980643703 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.6737884871, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.8147486374, "unknown_bound_high": 79.9250014672 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 23.8930130289, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.9156810645, "unknown_bound_high": 33.3767798837 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-fidenae-conquest-enslavement-426", "name": "Conquest, killing, plunder, and enslavement at Fidenae", "start": -426, "end": -426, "date_label": "426 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest, urban killing, plunder, captive allocation and sale, and permanent political incorporation without a documented successor settlement (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman army and commanders at Fidenae" ], "victims": [ "Residents, defenders, and civic community of Fidenae" ], "summary": "Livy describes fighting and killing in the city, surrender, plunder of city and camp, allocation of selected prisoners to officers, and sale of the remainder; Fidenae ceased to be an independent polity. Evidence limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination", "confidence": "high on definitive conquest, urban fighting, plunder, captive allocation and sale, and loss of independence; low on deaths, captive totals, slave destinations, resident continuity, parcel outcomes, and successor production", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_04.htm" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: researchgate.net", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274388600_Las_llamadas_priscae_Latinae_coloniae" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "definitive_city_conquest_killing_plunder_and_captive_sale", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-fidenae-conquest-enslavement-426", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "fidenae_428_426", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: No reliable death or captive total, slave destinations, surviving-resident census, or parcel outcome is preserved; annalistic rhetoric cannot imply total extermination" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 3 records urban killing, physical removal through captive sale, and political-administrative erasure of Fidenae's independent civic status; it does not assert coerced assimilation or narrative erasure." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records the permanent end of Fidenae as an independent polity after 426, not a claim that its entire resident population disappeared." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 4 records allocation and sale of the captured survivor population into slavery; the score does not supply a missing captive denominator or destination." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 4 records the durable political incorporation of Fidenae while leaving resident demographic continuity explicitly unknown." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "POST_V6_SOURCE_REVIEW_OVERRIDE", "provenance": "post_v6_cutoff_explicit_family_projection_v1:B30-03", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.9353824157, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.352574237, "unknown_bound_high": 92.4251091327 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.4516000892, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2985059093, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.0004412101, "unknown_bound_high": 77.1498502759 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 46.3539423864, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.466892555, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 74.154155482, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.1257240829, "unknown_bound_high": 86.3630382582 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 64.0998258709, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 55.2627417657, "unknown_bound_high": 69.0491818771 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-labici-colony-418-scope-control", "name": "Labici capture, plunder, and colonial land allotment", "start": -418, "end": -418, "date_label": "418 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest and plunder followed by formulaic citizen allotment on captured land with resident displacement left unknown (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman Senate and citizen allottees at Labici" ], "victims": [ "Residents and prior landholders of Labici" ], "summary": "Livy reports the capture and plunder of the existing Latin city, followed by a senate-ordered settlement of 1,500 colonists who each received two iugera on the conquered Labican land Evidence limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate", "confidence": "high on capture, plunder, the senate order, and Livy's 1,500-person two-iugera allotment as an attributed claim; low on legal form, displaced residents, prior parcels, allied shares, household composition, and settlement aftermath", "sources": [ { "title": "Livy, History of Rome", "locator": "418 BCE Labici capture, plunder and allotment account; reported 1,500 colonists and two iugera each", "role": "retrospective_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_31_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Labici authorization" }, "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_04.htm" }, { "title": "Chiabà (2011), priscae Latinae coloniae study", "locator": "Labici discussion; legal-form and continuity criticism", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_31_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Labici authorization" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" }, { "title": "Treccani, Labici", "locator": "site and later-continuity reference, not ancient testimony", "role": "modern_reference", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_31_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Labici authorization" } } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "captured_city_plunder_and_formulaic_colonial_allotment", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-labici-colony-418-scope-control", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "The evidence does not support a defensible event-specific persistence judgment rather than a generic inference from later Roman rule. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Colony versus viritane legal form is disputed; the source does not preserve displaced residents, prior parcel holders, allied shares, or the settlement's later fate" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 1 uses Livy's 1,500 allottees only as an attributed 1,000-10,000 incoming-stream bin; it does not imply 1,500 displaced Labicans." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records that no resident movement is positively documented despite secure captured-land allotment." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated displacement rather than assuming that unknown prior parcel holders were barred from return." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no documented resident-displacement episode; the rapid incoming allotment is measured in the incoming-stream dimensions." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 4 records durable Roman political absorption of Labici, not a claim that the particular settler body or its property order can be followed to the present." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.0178324934, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.0178324934, "unknown_bound_high": 83.0178324934 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.9804454801, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0940476491 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.3255104302, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 89.0328695747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 28.2779031834, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5934310897, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 57.4378779317 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 8.1018240267, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.3934856997, "unknown_bound_high": 72.8509321728 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-bola-contested-land-taking-415-414", "name": "Roman capture and recapture of Bola and its territory", "start": -415, "end": -414, "date_label": "415–414 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "Roman capture, Aequian countercapture and reinforcement with fresh colonists, and Roman recapture of Bola and its territory; Roman colony and land-division proposals failed", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Aequian forces during the countercapture" ], "victims": [ "The Bolan community whose town and territory changed hands" ], "summary": "Livy says Rome took both the town and territory from the Bolani in 415; after an Aequian recapture and reinforcement with fresh colonists of unknown number and origin, Rome took the city again in 414, while agrarian debate explicitly treated town and land as the conquerors' property Evidence limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented", "confidence": "high on repeated capture and the Roman agrarian claim to town and territory; high that colony proposals failed; low on location, residents, deaths, routes, duration of control, parcel outcomes, and successor production", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_04.htm" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: researchgate.net", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274388600_Las_llamadas_priscae_Latinae_coloniae" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "repeated_contested_city_and_territory_capture_without_settlement", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-bola-contested-land-taking-415-414", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "bola_415_414_and_389", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "The bounded evidence does not establish whether land or labor was the binding factor when the destination economy was organized. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Bola's exact location, resident routes, duration of each occupation, and parcel outcomes are unknown; no Roman colony was implemented" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 0 records that repeated conquest and a land claim are secure but no resident killing, removal, assimilation, status-erasure, or narrative-erasure mode is positively documented." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 0 records the repeatedly reversed occupation and nonimplementation of the colony proposals; Bola's distinct 389 final capture is not backfilled into this row." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated displacement and repeated local countercontrol rather than an inferred return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident movement despite acute military captures." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records a place- and allegiance-directed military contest rather than an ascriptive population-removal rule." }, { "dimension": "ssi_external_contestation_peak", "note": "Score 4 records the Aequian armed recapture that directly reversed Rome's 415 taking before the Roman countercapture of 414." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.6132886865, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8957364834, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.5210542751, "unknown_bound_high": 79.9474059326 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 21.5955949221, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.4487249314, "unknown_bound_high": 36.6511132223 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.3255104302, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 89.0328695747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.4630541383, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.7472251629, "unknown_bound_high": 73.8574779927 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-veii-conquest-allotment-incorporation-396-387", "name": "Veii conquest, Veientine land allotment, and incorporation", "start": -396, "end": -387, "date_label": "396–387 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest and captive sale followed by large household allotments on Veientine land and selective citizenship and tribal incorporation (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman plebeian household allottees on Veientine land" ], "victims": [ "Veientines sold after the conquest and Veientine landholders affected by later distribution", "Veientine, Capenate, and Faliscan communities selectively incorporated afterward" ], "summary": "After Veii fell, Livy reports sale of free inhabitants; a later seven-iugera distribution of Veientine land to Roman plebeian households; and subsequent citizenship, allotments, and tribal incorporation for loyal Veientines, Capenates, and Faliscans. Evidence limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination", "confidence": "high on conquest, captive sale, household allotment, citizenship, and tribal incorporation phases; medium on their regional integration; low on a captive or resident denominator, destinations, allottee totals, exact parcels, and the demographic balance between incoming households and continuing rural communities", "sources": [ { "title": "Livy, History of Rome", "locator": "Veii conquest, captive sale, allotment, selective citizenship and tribal incorporation sequence", "role": "retrospective_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_33_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Successor-release and publication consequences" }, "url": "https://www.ancienttexts.org/library/latinlibrary/livy/liv.5.html" }, { "title": "The Roman ager Veientanus", "locator": "modern landscape scholarship; not an ancient witness", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_33_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Successor-release and publication consequences" }, "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/papers-of-the-british-school-at-rome/article/abs/vi-the-roman-ager-veientanus/5B3AADBA4F0D4BA669221103345BC604" }, { "title": "Broadhead (2007), internal migration in Republican Italy", "locator": "modern settlement synthesis", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_33_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Successor-release and publication consequences" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf" }, { "title": "De Ligt and Northwood (2008), People, Land, and Politics", "locator": "modern scholarship, not ancient testimony", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_33_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Successor-release and publication consequences" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/de-ligt-northwood-2008-people-land-politics.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "conquest_captive_sale_household_allotment_and_selective_incorporation", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-veii-conquest-allotment-incorporation-396-387", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "veii_pre338_scope", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Livy's sale language is not a surviving census; archaeology indicates rural continuity, and the evidence does not identify every displaced person, allottee, parcel, or destination" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records household allottees without a separate settler-run territorial polity; Roman sovereignty and tribal incorporation are measured separately." }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records archaeological rural continuity and incorporated local communities as part of the successor productive order rather than an economy designed to exclude them." }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 3 records physical removal through captive sale, juridical land and civic reconstitution, and selective incorporation; it does not add narrative erasure or a separate extermination program." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records large systematic distribution of Veientine land while selective local allotment and archaeological continuity rule out comprehensive extinction of every prior tenure claim." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records continuing and incorporated local communities without treating them as a separate coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "Score 3 records Livy's household-based allotment structure, including child-linked shares, rather than inferring family parity from the land grant alone." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records re-planning of an occupied rural landscape through household allotments while substantial local continuity remained." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 2 balances Livy's broad captive-sale claim against archaeology and later selective incorporation showing substantial local continuity; it is an attributed range judgment, not a census." }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "Score 4 records household allotments explicitly structured around plebeians and children, not a reconstructed sex ratio for every recipient." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 preserves the nine-year conquest, distribution, citizenship, and tribal-incorporation sequence rather than splitting its phases into separate cases." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "Score 3 uses archaeological continuity and named local incorporation as a membership proxy for a fused successor population, not a genetic estimate or precise percentage." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 4 records sale of captured free inhabitants under direct custody following conquest; it does not imply that every rural resident was sold." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records successive state decisions governing captive sale, household distribution, citizenship, and tribal organization without claiming one pre-conquest master plan." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records Roman land and tribal institutions becoming dominant while incorporated local communities and rural continuity remained visible." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 4 records captive sale as custodial enslavement for the sold population, while destinations and the share sold remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 3 records the acute conquest-and-sale phase within a longer nine-year territorial reorganization." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 3 records exceptional protection and incorporation for loyal Veientines, Capenates, and Faliscans while other captured inhabitants were sold." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records individual household allottees enrolled into Roman tribes rather than a chartered or self-governing colony." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.3991214698, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.3991214698, "unknown_bound_high": 90.3991214698 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 62.4505419423, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.4585463888, "unknown_bound_high": 69.6609346797 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 71.4213755934, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6347085099, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 45.3317548789, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 62.1133354283, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5525527387, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.3208936012, "unknown_bound_high": 79.0656197304 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 74.154155482, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.1257240829, "unknown_bound_high": 86.3630382582 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 62.7632774597, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.9422834333, "unknown_bound_high": 67.4033822525 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-circeii-latin-refoundation-393", "name": "Latin or Roman-backed refoundation of Circeii", "start": -393, "end": -393, "date_label": "393 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-backed durable colony at Circeii in 393; probable reconquest/refoundation after Volscian control is a specialist reconstruction with prior-resident movement and parcel effects unresolved (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman or Latin sponsoring authorities", "Colonists at Circeii" ], "victims": [ "Prior Volscian or local landholders potentially affected by the refoundation" ], "summary": "Diodorus reports a new colony at Circeii in 393 and later sources confirm its durable Latin-colony identity; the detailed 395 in-Volscos allotment may relate to it but that identification is disputed. Evidence limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed", "confidence": "high on a 393 BCE refoundation and durable Latin-colony identity; medium on Roman or Latin sponsorship; low on initiator, settler body, household composition, prior residents, parcels, displacement, and the relation to the disputed 395 plan", "sources": [ { "title": "Diodorus Siculus, Library of History", "locator": "named Circeii colony in 393 BCE; do not import Livy's unnamed 395 figures", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_33_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Successor-release and publication consequences" } }, { "title": "Chiabà (2011), priscae Latinae coloniae study", "locator": "printed pp. 101–104 / local PDF pp. 121–124, not 113–116", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_33_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Successor-release and publication consequences" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" }, { "title": "Martínez-Pinna, Las llamadas priscae Latinae coloniae", "locator": "specialist reconstruction; not ancient testimony", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_33_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Successor-release and publication consequences" }, "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274388600_Las_llamadas_priscae_Latinae_coloniae" }, { "title": "Livy, History of Rome, Book 5", "locator": "unnamed 395 in Volscos notice; uncertain contextual relationship only; its 3,000 and parcel figures excluded", "role": "retrospective_ancient_context", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_33_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Successor-release and publication consequences" }, "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_05.htm" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "durable_refoundation_with_unknown_resident_land_outcome", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-circeii-latin-refoundation-393", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "circeii_expulsion_refoundation", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The initiating authority, settler composition, prior Volscian resident outcome, parcels, and relationship to the 395 authorization are disputed" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 0 records that the refoundation is secure but no prior-resident killing, removal, assimilation, status-erasure, or narrative-erasure mode is positively documented." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records Circeii's durable Latin-colony identity after the 393 refoundation while leaving demographic replacement unknown." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated prior-resident displacement; the disputed 395 plan cannot supply one." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records an administratively organized foundation on conquered land without a documented armed removal operation against residents in this bounded event." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated removal or return bar rather than treating an unknown resident outcome as expulsion." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode; the incoming foundation is measured by the migration dimensions." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records a land-and-foundation operation without an ascriptive resident-removal rule." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented targeting of prior residents, much less a sex-selective practice." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.5916521759, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.7584213235, "unknown_bound_high": 80.8309562191 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.475581455, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2244302622, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.9021769684, "unknown_bound_high": 79.4591507463 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.9804454801, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0940476491 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.3255104302, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 89.0328695747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 6.9710942979, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5070079173, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.5344000015, "unknown_bound_high": 52.8336082684 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-vitellia-aequian-capture-flight-393", "name": "Aequian capture of Vitellia and colonist flight to Rome", "start": -393, "end": -393, "date_label": "393 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "Aequian armed capture and colonist flight", "agents": [ "Aequian attackers" ], "victims": [ "Roman colonists at Vitellia who fled toward Rome" ], "summary": "Livy says the Aequi captured the Roman colony by night and most colonists escaped in the opposite direction and reached Rome; the city disappears from subsequent history. Evidence limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown", "confidence": "high on nighttime capture and the source's majority-flight statement; medium on settlement loss; low on Vitellia's location, population, non-colonist residents, deaths, land tenure, immediate successor rule, and later status", "sources": [ { "title": "Livy, History of Rome", "locator": "Book 5; Vitellia capture and flight in 393 BCE", "role": "retrospective_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_34_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Verified source and provenance corrections" }, "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_05.htm" }, { "title": "Chiabà (2011), priscae Latinae coloniae study", "locator": "source-critical local-event discussion; later disappearance is not direct resident destruction", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_34_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Verified source and provenance corrections" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "night_capture_majority_colonist_flight_and_settlement_loss", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-vitellia-aequian-capture-flight-393", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "The bounded evidence does not establish whether land or labor was the binding factor when the destination economy was organized. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Vitellia's exact location, the number and identities of colonists, non-colonist residents, deaths, and the city's immediate fate are unknown" }, { "dimension": "scs_metropole_anchorage", "note": "Score 0 records an Aequian capture with no documented metropole-directed settlement or administrative removal project; Rome is the victims' sponsor, not the taker's metropole." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records the durable loss and disappearance of the Roman settlement at Vitellia, not durable Aequian demographic replacement." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 2 conservatively records Livy's statement that most colonists escaped while refusing to infer removal of unknown non-colonist residents or a greater-than-70-percent total clearance." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 1 records the source's flight toward Rome from the broad contiguous Aequian region; Vitellia's uncertain location precludes a more precise route." }, { "dimension": "hdem_present_day_endpoint", "note": "Score 0 records the disappearance of the removed Roman colonial layer and the absence of a documented durable Aequian successor population at the unlocated site." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the source's single nighttime capture and immediate majority flight; it does not turn the unknown casualty toll into a zero." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 0 records settlement abandonment without a documented durable Aequian successor polity, even though loss of the Roman settlement itself persisted." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 73.8726893344, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4699444698, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.7160618216, "unknown_bound_high": 87.7216148421 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.5721580374, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2244302622, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.6994214139, "unknown_bound_high": 79.2563951917 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9256914734, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 7.4308526592 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3116545288, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 90.4768577157 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 23.2371992826, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7221604762, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 44.5649392772 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-bola-final-capture-destruction-389", "name": "Final Roman capture and disappearance of Bola", "start": -389, "end": -389, "date_label": "389 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest and durable loss of a city whose destruction and abandonment are specialist inferences rather than explicit source claims (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman army under Camillus" ], "victims": [ "The Aequian community at Bola" ], "summary": "Livy says Camillus captured the Aequian army, camp, and city of Bola at the first assault; specialist synthesis treats this as the city's definitive destruction because Bola disappears from the record thereafter Evidence limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence", "confidence": "high on the 389 BCE capture; medium on definitive settlement loss; low on Bola's location, destruction mechanism, residents, deaths, routes, land tenure, successor use, and later status", "sources": [ { "title": "Livy, History of Rome", "locator": "Book 6; Camillus captures Bola in 389 BCE", "role": "retrospective_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_34_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Verified source and provenance corrections" }, "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_06.htm" }, { "title": "Chiabà (2011), priscae Latinae coloniae study", "locator": "source-critical local-event discussion; later disappearance is not direct resident destruction", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_34_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Verified source and provenance corrections" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "final_city_capture_with_inferred_durable_abandonment", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-bola-final-capture-destruction-389", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "bola_415_414_and_389", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "The bounded evidence does not establish whether land or labor was the binding factor when the destination economy was organized. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "gfm_subsistence_destruction", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Livy directly supports capture but not an explicit razing or resident route; destruction and durable abandonment are historical inferences from later silence" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 0 records that the source explicitly supplies capture but no bounded killing, removal, assimilation, status-erasure, or narrative-erasure mechanism; the event qualifies through demonstrable political land taking and durable settlement loss." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records Bola's durable disappearance after 389 as a specialist synthesis, not an explicit Livian claim that every resident was destroyed." }, { "dimension": "hdem_present_day_endpoint", "note": "Score 4 records the absence of any continuing Bolan civic community at the unlocated site; it does not identify a biological successor population." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 4 records definitive Roman control and Bola's disappearance while leaving destruction, resident removal, and parcel transfer unknown." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.9353824157, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.352574237, "unknown_bound_high": 92.4251091327 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.475581455, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2244302622, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.9021769684, "unknown_bound_high": 79.4591507463 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9256914734, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 7.4308526592 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3116545288, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 90.4768577157 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 39.6581500419, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.2128251614, "unknown_bound_high": 84.4606779972 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-satricum-roman-conquest-colony-386-385", "name": "Roman capture and colony order at Satricum", "start": -386, "end": -385, "date_label": "386–385 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest and formulaic citizen allotment at a site of Volscian occupation whose continuity across the event is unresolved, followed by rapid reversal (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman Senate and citizen allottees at Satricum" ], "victims": [ "Volscian defenders and prior landholders at Satricum" ], "summary": "Livy says Rome captured Satricum after Volscian defenders surrendered, then ordered 2,000 Roman citizens settled with two and one-half iugera each; archaeology establishes Volscian occupation, while continuity and movement across the 386–385 capture and order remain unresolved. Evidence limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed", "confidence": "high on surrender, the senate settlement order, and Livy's 2,000-person and two-and-one-half-iugera claims as attributed figures; medium on implementation and continuity; low on legal label, allied participation, prior parcels, removal, household composition, and later settler demography", "sources": [ { "title": "Livy, History of Rome", "locator": "Book 6; 386 capture and 385 colony order; 2,000 citizens and two-and-one-half iugera are reported quantities", "role": "retrospective_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_35_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Shared source and metadata decisions" }, "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_06.htm" }, { "title": "Chiabà (2011), priscae Latinae coloniae study", "locator": "Satricum colony and continuity discussion", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_35_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Shared source and metadata decisions" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "conquest_allotment_and_mixed_resident_colonial_settlement", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-satricum-roman-conquest-colony-386-385", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "pomptine_parent_children | satricum_four_phase_sequence", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The juridical status, allied participation, exact implementation of the reported numbers, prior parcel holders, and scale of resident displacement are disputed" }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 0 records the armed reversal of the Roman settlement at Satricum in 382, not a claim that Roman influence in the wider Pontine region ended." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 1 uses Livy's 2,000 citizen allottees only as an attributed 1,000-10,000 incoming-stream bin; it is not a census of the site or evidence of 2,000 displaced Volsci." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records that no prior-resident movement is positively documented in this bounded settlement episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records the absence of demonstrated resident displacement and the rapid armed reversal of the colonial order." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no documented displacement episode; the rapid settler placement is measured separately by the historical-demography and incoming-stream dimensions." }, { "dimension": "ssi_external_contestation_peak", "note": "Score 4 records the 382 Praenestine and Volscian armed counter-conquest that overthrew the colonial settlement; that reversal remains a separate primary event row." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.0178324934, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.0178324934, "unknown_bound_high": 83.0178324934 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.9804454801, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0940476491 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.3255104302, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 89.0328695747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.0684213127, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 76.8912397299 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 11.9257866634, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.4397026023, "unknown_bound_high": 22.9008014215 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-pomptine-division-settlement-383-358", "name": "Pomptine land commission, division, and tribal consolidation", "start": -383, "end": -358, "date_label": "383 and 358 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state land commission, individual distribution, and later tribal consolidation in contested Volscian Pomptine territory (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman individual allottees and settlers in the Pomptine territory" ], "victims": [ "Volscian and local landholders affected by Pomptine division and settlement" ], "summary": "Livy records commissioners for Pomptine land division in 383 BCE and the creation of Pomptina in 358 BCE; Chiabà interprets the latter as enrolling beneficiaries of preceding distributions. This rural residual excludes Publilia in Hernican territory and the footprints of separately coded urban colonies, including Satricum, Setia and Nepet. Recipient counts, allotment formulas, parcels, prior-resident outcomes and activity between the two milestones remain unknown.", "confidence": "high on the 383 BCE commission and 358 BCE tribal consolidation; medium on one connected regional implementation; low on recipient count, allotment sizes, parcels, resident movement, household composition, local legal shares, and the pace of work between the notices", "sources": [ { "title": "Livy, History of Rome", "locator": "Book 6; 383 commission", "role": "retrospective_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_35_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Shared source and metadata decisions" }, "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_06.htm" }, { "title": "Livy, History of Rome", "locator": "7.15; 358 Pomptina notice; Publilia excluded from this residual", "role": "retrospective_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_35_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Shared source and metadata decisions" }, "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Liv.%207.15" }, { "title": "Chiabà (2011), priscae Latinae coloniae study", "locator": "interpretive link between distributions and Pomptina enrollment", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_35_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Shared source and metadata decisions" } }, { "title": "Broadhead (2007), internal migration in Republican Italy", "locator": "modern specialist synthesis, not ancient testimony", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_35_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Shared source and metadata decisions" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "long_land_commission_and_tribal_settlement_consolidation", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-pomptine-division-settlement-383-358", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "pomptine_parent_children", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The sources preserve no recipient count, allotment size, parcel map, named resident route, or proof that the 383 commission completed all work immediately" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records individual allottees and tribal enrollment without a separate self-governing settler polity." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records a regional commission followed by durable tribal organization while leaving exact parcels and the share of Volscian tenure extinguished unknown." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 1 records smallholder settlement improvements across the divided territory without importing unattested roads, drainage, or region-scale works." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records a long agrarian reorganization under new tenure and tribal administration rather than a wholly new production system." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded commission-and-settlement process, which reports no deaths; surrounding wars are not converted into an event-specific mortality claim." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 2 preserves the twenty-five-year implementation window from commissioners to tribal consolidation rather than implying immediate completion in 383 BCE." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state land division and settlement administration without a documented armed resident-removal operation in the bounded sequence." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded land program, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records appointed land commissioners and later formal tribal organization as a legible state program; it does not imply a removal order." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records Roman agrarian and tribal institutions becoming dominant in the settled zone while resident movement and continuity remain unresolved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and territory-based reorganization rather than ascriptive targeting of Volsci as persons." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records individual allottees enrolled into Roman tribal structures rather than a chartered colony." } ], "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Two separately dated milestones in one rural residual: commission in 383 and Pomptina in 358. Chiabà supplies the proposed continuity link, not a continuous 25-year operation.", "kind": "internal_milestones", "milestone_years": [ -383, -358 ] }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.4529613343, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.5952452414, "unknown_bound_high": 92.0004135459 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 58.2439289547, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.059703561, "unknown_bound_high": 66.2620918519 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.0776098405, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.337590085, "unknown_bound_high": 94.662409915 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 25.6611644275, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.5809632366, "unknown_bound_high": 78.0384097097 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-satricum-countercapture-382", "name": "Praenestine and Volscian capture of the Satricum colony", "start": -382, "end": -382, "date_label": "382 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state or polity-coalition counter-conquest of a fortified colonial settlement with coercive captive treatment but unknown demographic and land outcomes (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Praenestine and Volscian forces" ], "victims": [ "Captured inhabitants of the Roman settlement at Satricum" ], "summary": "Livy says Praenestines and Volsci stormed the strongly defended Roman colony and treated the captured people brutally. Evidence limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture", "confidence": "high on storming the defended settlement and coercive treatment of captives; low on captive totals, exact treatment, deaths, destinations, resident continuity, property, and the duration of successor control", "sources": [ { "title": "Livy, History of Rome", "locator": "6.22.4, not 6.27", "role": "retrospective_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_35_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Shared source and metadata decisions" }, "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_06.htm" }, { "title": "Chiabà (2011), priscae Latinae coloniae study", "locator": "printed pp. 115–116 for the 382 countercapture", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_35_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Shared source and metadata decisions" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "armed_counterconquest_and_uncertain_captive_treatment", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-satricum-countercapture-382", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "satricum_four_phase_sequence", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The text does not specify captive totals, exact treatment, destinations, deaths, surviving residents, or land distribution after capture" }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 0 records the short-lived counter-conquest before Satricum's next distinct actor-and-outcome phase; it does not deny local Volscian continuity." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 4 records captives under direct control after the settlement was stormed, while their exact treatment and any later custodial regime remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records a single storm-and-capture operation, not a claim that every resident was displaced." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.1912954406, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4791594934, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 40.3410584684, "unknown_bound_high": 92.4251091327 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 16.0477394923, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2244302622, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.6015983823, "unknown_bound_high": 81.1585721602 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.0743085266, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 92.5691473408 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.0684213127, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 76.8912397299 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-setia-foundation-382", "name": "Setia foundation on conquered Pontine land", "start": -382, "end": -382, "date_label": "382 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-backed durable colonial foundation within conquered Pontine land with no bounded displaced community or parcel record (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic or allied Latin sponsoring authority", "Colonists at Setia" ], "victims": [ "Volscian or local prior landholders potentially affected by the Pontine reorganization" ], "summary": "Velleius dates Setia's foundation to 382; Livy's 380 reinforcement and later Latin-colony status support implementation, while both specialist reconstructions place it within the reorganization of land taken from Volsci Evidence limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed", "confidence": "high on the 382 BCE foundation, 380 reinforcement, and durable Latin-colony status; medium on its place in the wider Pontine reorganization; low on initiating authority, settler number, households, pre-colonial footprint, parcels, removal, and one-generation demography", "sources": [ { "title": "Velleius Paterculus, Roman History", "locator": "Setia foundation in 382 BCE", "role": "ancient_literary_source", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_36_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Event 1: Setia, 382 BCE" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Velleius_Paterculus/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Livy, History of Rome", "locator": "6.30.9; 380 reinforcement and early implementation, not a separate event", "role": "retrospective_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_36_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Event 1: Setia, 382 BCE" } }, { "title": "Chiabà (2011), priscae Latinae coloniae study", "locator": "Pontine land-taking reconstruction", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_36_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Event 1: Setia, 382 BCE" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" }, { "title": "Martínez-Pinna, Las llamadas priscae Latinae coloniae", "locator": "Pontine land-taking reconstruction", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_36_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Event 1: Setia, 382 BCE" }, "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274388600_Las_llamadas_priscae_Latinae_coloniae" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "durable_foundation_on_conquered_land_without_bounded_removal", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-setia-foundation-382", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "pomptine_parent_children", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "The bounded evidence does not establish whether land or labor was the binding factor when the destination economy was organized. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: No original settler total, parcel map, named displaced community, or secure pre-colonial town footprint survives; the initiating authority is disputed" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 0 records a secure foundation on conquered land without any positively documented killing, removal, assimilation, status-erasure, or narrative-erasure mechanism." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records Setia's durable colonial identity and political place in Rome's frontier system without asserting demographic replacement." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no bounded prior-resident movement; neither the disputed 395 plan nor the 380 reinforcement supplies one." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records an administratively organized foundation on conquered land without a documented armed resident-removal operation in this event unit." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated resident removal or exclusion from return." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode; incoming settlement tempo is measured separately." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records no ascriptive removal category in the bounded foundation evidence." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented targeting of prior residents and no sex-selective practice." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": null, "primary_family_review": { "status": "EVIDENCE_HOLD", "provenance": "post_v6_cutoff_explicit_family_projection_v1:B36-01", "evidence_hold": true, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 57.4622044715, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5800135503, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.328857226, "unknown_bound_high": 75.3275021917 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.475581455, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2244302622, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.9021769684, "unknown_bound_high": 79.4591507463 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.3255104302, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 89.0328695747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 6.9710942979, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5070079173, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.5344000015, "unknown_bound_high": 52.8336082684 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 8.1018240267, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.3934856997, "unknown_bound_high": 72.8509321728 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-satricum-latin-burning-377", "name": "Latin burning and settlement break at Satricum", "start": -377, "end": -377, "date_label": "377 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "confederate armed destruction of a built community without a documented resident route or successor settlement (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Latin forces withdrawing from Satricum" ], "victims": [ "The built community of Satricum and any residents present at the burning" ], "summary": "Livy says the Latins, enraged after military and political reversals, burned Satricum's sacred and secular buildings except the Mater Matuta temple; later refoundation confirms a substantial settlement break Evidence limit: The identities, number, and destinations of any residents present at the burning are not preserved; the sources do not support a death total", "confidence": "high on the citywide burning and survival of the Mater Matuta temple; medium on a substantial settlement break; low on resident identities, population, deaths, destinations, tenure, and who occupied the land immediately afterward", "sources": [ { "title": "Livy, History of Rome", "locator": "6.33.4; burning with Mater Matuta temple exception", "role": "retrospective_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_36_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Event 2: Satricum, 377 BCE" }, "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_06.htm" }, { "title": "Chiabà (2011), priscae Latinae coloniae study", "locator": "printed pp. 115–116; substantial but nonfinal settlement break", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_36_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Event 2: Satricum, 377 BCE" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "confederate_city_burning_and_temporary_abandonment", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-satricum-latin-burning-377", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "satricum_four_phase_sequence", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The identities, number, and destinations of any residents present at the burning are not preserved; the sources do not support a death total" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The identities, number, and destinations of any residents present at the burning are not preserved; the sources do not support a death total" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The identities, number, and destinations of any residents present at the burning are not preserved; the sources do not support a death total" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The identities, number, and destinations of any residents present at the burning are not preserved; the sources do not support a death total" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The identities, number, and destinations of any residents present at the burning are not preserved; the sources do not support a death total" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The identities, number, and destinations of any residents present at the burning are not preserved; the sources do not support a death total" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The identities, number, and destinations of any residents present at the burning are not preserved; the sources do not support a death total" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The identities, number, and destinations of any residents present at the burning are not preserved; the sources do not support a death total" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The identities, number, and destinations of any residents present at the burning are not preserved; the sources do not support a death total" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The identities, number, and destinations of any residents present at the burning are not preserved; the sources do not support a death total" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 0 records that the source establishes destruction of the built community but does not identify a resident killing, removal, assimilation, or erasure program." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 1 records a substantial settlement break followed by the distinct Antiate or Volscian refoundation in 348." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 4 records destruction of the civic built landscape and temporary withdrawal from its prior use; the surviving temple is an explicit exception." }, { "dimension": "gfm_subsistence_destruction", "note": "Score 3 records citywide destruction of sacred and secular buildings as a method of making the community uninhabitable, without inventing a separate starvation campaign." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records a place-directed destruction after military and political reversals; the source does not identify an ascriptive population category." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 82.9855219222, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5834230099, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.4156629807, "unknown_bound_high": 90.0733619874 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 4.567554413, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4164541451, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.9021769684, "unknown_bound_high": 60.2567624554 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.1838984767, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.8160251659, "unknown_bound_high": 80.9262779957 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 23.7690968926, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.4921845845, "unknown_bound_high": 34.2786246959 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-satricum-roman-destruction-enslavement-346", "name": "Roman destruction of Satricum and sale of captives", "start": -346, "end": -346, "date_label": "346 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest, citywide destruction, and mass captive sale without a documented immediate successor settlement (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman army at Satricum" ], "victims": [ "Volscian defenders and residents at Satricum" ], "summary": "Livy says Rome defeated the Volsci, took their surrender at Satricum, sacked and burned the town except the Mater Matuta temple, paraded 4,000 reported captives, and sold them Evidence limit: The 4,000 figure is an attributed ancient claim, one ancient variant calls them slaves already captured, and no sale destinations or surviving-resident census is known", "confidence": "high on surrender, sack, burning, captive parade, and sale; medium on the 4,000 figure's order of magnitude; low on its exact referent, deaths, slave destinations, resident denominator, land administration, and successor use", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_07.htm" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/chiaba-2011-priscae-latinae-coloniae.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_PRE_338_FOUNDATION_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_pre_338_foundation_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "surrender_city_destruction_and_mass_captive_sale", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-satricum-roman-destruction-enslavement-346", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "satricum_four_phase_sequence", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The 4,000 figure is an attributed ancient claim, one ancient variant calls them slaves already captured, and no sale destinations or surviving-resident census is known" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The 4,000 figure is an attributed ancient claim, one ancient variant calls them slaves already captured, and no sale destinations or surviving-resident census is known" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The 4,000 figure is an attributed ancient claim, one ancient variant calls them slaves already captured, and no sale destinations or surviving-resident census is known" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The 4,000 figure is an attributed ancient claim, one ancient variant calls them slaves already captured, and no sale destinations or surviving-resident census is known" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The 4,000 figure is an attributed ancient claim, one ancient variant calls them slaves already captured, and no sale destinations or surviving-resident census is known" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 2 records physical removal into slavery and civic destruction or erasure; the source does not support a separate killing campaign, assimilation program, or narrative-erasure system." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records the final destruction of the rebuilt Satricum community while preserving the Mater Matuta sanctuary as an explicit exception." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 4 records the burning of the civic landscape and withdrawal from its prior community use, not a reconstructed later agricultural regime." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 1 treats Livy's reported 4,000 captives only as an attributed 1,000-10,000 order-of-magnitude claim; it is not a site census." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 4 records the captive population's sale into slavery while leaving destinations and conditions unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 4 records final city destruction, captive removal, and no substantial community return in the source record; it does not claim a separate written return ban." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 3 records surrender followed by sale of the captured Volscian community, with only exceptional escape or sparing possible and no documented general route to remain." } ], "metadata_count_qualifier": "Livy's 4,000 is securely attributed but its historical accuracy, referent and magnitude are low-confidence or unknown. Preserve the conflicting prisoner-status variant. It is not a resident census, casualty denominator, or map weight.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.9353824157, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.352574237, "unknown_bound_high": 92.4251091327 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.7289399282, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4164541451, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.3010197962, "unknown_bound_high": 63.6556052832 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 48.799664126, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.1607623486, "unknown_bound_high": 54.7159684723 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-latin-war-viritane-distribution-340", "name": "Latin, Privernian, Falernian, and Campanian land distributions after the Latin War", "start": -340, "end": -340, "date_label": "340 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "postwar state deprivation of Latin, Privernian, Falernian, and Campanian land followed by two formulaic individual-allotment schedules (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman individual allottees after the Latin War" ], "victims": [ "Latin, Privernian, Falernian, and Campanian communities whose territories supplied allotments" ], "summary": "Livy reports territorial deprivation after the Latin War and individual allotments: two and three-quarter iugera from Latin and Privernian land, or three and one-quarter iugera in Falernian or Campanian territory Evidence limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome", "confidence": "high on the linked territorial deprivation and two allotment formulas; low on recipient totals, parcel-level holders, resident destinations, household composition, population proportions, and whether local outcomes differed materially among the four source zones", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.02.0155%3Abook%3D8" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: de-ligt-northwood-2008-people-land-politics.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/de-ligt-northwood-2008-people-land-politics.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_VIRITANE_PREGRACCHAN_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_VIRITANE_PREGRACCHAN_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_viritane_pregracchan_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_viritane_pregracchan_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "linked_postwar_multiregion_individual_allotment_program", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-latin-war-viritane-distribution-340", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The allotment notice does not identify recipient totals, parcel-level prior holders, resident destinations, or whether each source zone experienced the same local outcome" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records individual allottees without a separate settler-run territorial polity." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records specific postwar territorial deprivation and formulaic lots while leaving the affected share of each regional tenure system unresolved." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records two parcel formulas applied through one linked program without claiming a complete survey or adjudication of prior holdings." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued agrarian use under new individual tenure rather than a demonstrated replacement production system." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded allotment program, which reports no process deaths; Latin War mortality is not imported into the land-distribution row." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records postwar territorial deprivation and administrative allotment without a documented resident-removal operation in the distribution itself." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded allotment program, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records an explicit state allotment program with two formulas across named source territories; it does not establish one removal policy across all four regions." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records territorial and parcel-based punishment rather than an ascriptive rule targeting every Latin, Privernian, Falernian, or Campanian person." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents in the allotment phase." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records individual allotment rather than a chartered or self-governing colonial body." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.4529613343, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.5952452414, "unknown_bound_high": 92.0004135459 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 57.0604954797, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.9501307513, "unknown_bound_high": 62.4112295705 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-antium-338-colony-integration", "name": "Rome, Latin colonists, and Antiates", "start": -338, "end": -338, "date_label": "338 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest, naval disarmament, colonial settlement, and an explicit enrollment-and-citizenship route for Antiates who remained (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman and Latin colonists at Antium" ], "victims": [ "Antiate residents and landholders affected by surrender, disarmament, and colonial reconstitution" ], "summary": "After Antium's surrender Rome sent colonists, permitted Antiates who wished to enroll, granted citizenship, and removed the community's naval capacity Evidence limit: The sources do not establish wholesale Antiate removal, exact confiscated parcels, the colonist total, or the share of residents who enrolled", "confidence": "high on surrender, incoming colonists, optional Antiate enrollment, citizenship, and removal of naval capacity; low on confiscated parcels, colonist total, household composition, resident enrollment share, and successor population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: markbwilson.com", "url": "https://markbwilson.com/courses/~readings/ar/ar12.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: academic.oup.com", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/61673/chapter-abstract/548066271" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "surrender_colony_optional_local_enrollment_and_disarmament", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-antium-338-colony-integration", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "antium_early_and_338", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The sources do not establish wholesale Antiate removal, exact confiscated parcels, the colonist total, or the share of residents who enrolled" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The sources do not establish wholesale Antiate removal, exact confiscated parcels, the colonist total, or the share of residents who enrolled" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The sources do not establish wholesale Antiate removal, exact confiscated parcels, the colonist total, or the share of residents who enrolled" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The sources do not establish wholesale Antiate removal, exact confiscated parcels, the colonist total, or the share of residents who enrolled" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The sources do not establish wholesale Antiate removal, exact confiscated parcels, the colonist total, or the share of residents who enrolled" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The sources do not establish wholesale Antiate removal, exact confiscated parcels, the colonist total, or the share of residents who enrolled" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The sources do not establish wholesale Antiate removal, exact confiscated parcels, the colonist total, or the share of residents who enrolled" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The sources do not establish wholesale Antiate removal, exact confiscated parcels, the colonist total, or the share of residents who enrolled" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records enrolled Antiates as part of the successor city's productive and political community rather than an economy designed to exclude local labor." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 1 records imposed colonial possession while the exact confiscated parcels and resident land shares remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records Antiate enrollment and citizenship rather than retention as a separate coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 0 records continuation of the existing city and local economy through political and colonial reconstitution." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 0 records the explicit route for Antiates to enroll and remain, citizenship, and no documented wholesale removal; it is not a census-derived resident fraction." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the post-surrender reconstitution, which reports no process deaths or demographic decline through killing." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated Antiate removal route." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "Score 4 uses explicit Antiate enrollment, citizenship, and community continuity as a membership proxy, not a genetic estimate or precise percentage." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records armed conquest and naval disarmament while stopping short of an undocumented resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded surrender-and-reconstitution process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records explicit state decisions on settlement, enrollment, citizenship, and naval disarmament; it does not imply a removal plan." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records Roman colonial and civic institutions alongside enrolled Antiate residents rather than region-wide replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime over enrolled Antiates." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete Antiate resident-displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records an explicit conduct-and-choice route into the new settlement rather than inescapable ascriptive targeting." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against residents." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 0 records citizenship and enrollment inside the successor settlement for Antiates who remained, not separate subjecthood or exclusion." }, { "dimension": "ssi_boundary_hardening", "note": "Score 0 records an integrated city without a documented internal separation line between enrolled Antiates and colonists." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.4996987695, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.4996987695, "unknown_bound_high": 81.4996987695 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 22.5133446018, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1902447541, "unknown_bound_high": 37.3926330449 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.7919317171, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.7643408248, "unknown_bound_high": 38.2874831091 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 16.7809869001, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 16.7809869001 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 57.1305878505, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.1305878505, "unknown_bound_high": 57.1305878505 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-cales-ausonian-colony", "name": "Romans and Ausones at Cales", "start": -335, "end": -334, "date_label": "335–334 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state capture, garrisoning, and a Senate-authorized 2,500-person colony with an explicit commission to divide Cales's land (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman and Latin colonists at Cales" ], "victims": [ "Ausonian residents and landholders of Cales affected by conquest and land division" ], "summary": "Roman capture of Ausonian Cales was followed by a Senate-authorized colony of 2,500 and an explicit commission to establish the colony and divide its land Evidence limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim", "confidence": "high on capture, garrison, attributed 2,500-person colony, commission, and land division; high on archaeological continuity; low on parcel-level ownership, survivor count, resident movement, household composition, legal shares, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: latin.packhum.org", "url": "https://latin.packhum.org/loc/914/1/413/2085-2093" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: air.unimi.it", "url": "https://air.unimi.it/handle/2434/172300" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: onlinelibrary.wiley.com", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/arcm.12873" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "captured_ausonian_city_commissioned_land_division_and_integrated_colony", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-cales-ausonian-colony", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: No source proves total expulsion, parcel-level ownership, or a complete survivor count; archaeological continuity prevents a wholesale-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records archaeological Ausonian continuity as part of the successor center's productive base rather than an economy designed to exclude local labor." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records an explicit commission to divide captured Cales's land for a substantial colony while not claiming that every Ausonian parcel or title was extinguished." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records local continuity without evidence that Ausonians became a separate coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records planned redivision of an occupied agrarian territory while archaeological continuity rules out a blank-slate replacement." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 1 records localized land loss constrained by archaeological continuity; it is not a census-derived survivor percentage." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 1 uses Livy's attributed 2,500 incoming colonists only as the larger directly moved stream's 1,000–10,000 bin; it is not a displaced-resident count." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated Ausonian removal route from Cales." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records Roman armed capture and garrisoning without converting conquest into a claim of mass resident expulsion." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a Senate-authorized colony and an explicit land-division commission; it does not imply a removal order." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records Roman colonial institutions and land division alongside archaeological local continuity rather than region-wide replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime over continuing residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete prior-resident displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records territorial conquest and parcel redivision rather than ascriptive targeting of Ausonians." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.0178324934, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.0178324934, "unknown_bound_high": 83.0178324934 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 55.7572735565, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.0505453878, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2529336787 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 45.7639959151, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7200214457, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 32.9510584993, "unknown_bound_high": 60.9489139305 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 31.8046487548, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 64.0183010755 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.343616451, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 52.343616451 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-tarracina-colony-329", "name": "Tarracina colony and allotments in Volscian Anxur", "start": -329, "end": -329, "date_label": "329 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state allotment and political reconstitution at an existing Volscian city with strong resident and cult continuity (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman citizen colonists at Tarracina" ], "victims": [ "Volscian or local holders affected by allotments at Anxur" ], "summary": "A three-hundred-person colony received two-iuger allotments at the existing city known as Volscian Anxur; archaeological and cult continuity rule out a blank-slate or total-replacement account Evidence limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and degree of Volscian participation are unknown; two iugera per colonist do not measure the colony's full common or undistributed land", "confidence": "high on the three-hundred-person colony, two-iugera allotments, existing city, and strong local continuity; low on exact parcels, prior holders, household composition, resident legal shares, and the colony's full land endowment", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/thayer/e/roman/texts/velleius_paterculus/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: treccani.it", "url": "https://www.treccani.it/enciclopedia/terracina_%28Enciclopedia-dell%27-Arte-Antica%29/" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: klass-archaeologie.uni-muenchen.de", "url": "https://www.klass-archaeologie.uni-muenchen.de/forschung/d-projekte-laufend/terracina2/index.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "small_formulaic_colony_with_strong_local_continuity", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-tarracina-colony-329", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and degree of Volscian participation are unknown; two iugera per colonist do not measure the colony's full common or undistributed land" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and degree of Volscian participation are unknown; two iugera per colonist do not measure the colony's full common or undistributed land" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and degree of Volscian participation are unknown; two iugera per colonist do not measure the colony's full common or undistributed land" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and degree of Volscian participation are unknown; two iugera per colonist do not measure the colony's full common or undistributed land" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and degree of Volscian participation are unknown; two iugera per colonist do not measure the colony's full common or undistributed land" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and degree of Volscian participation are unknown; two iugera per colonist do not measure the colony's full common or undistributed land" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and degree of Volscian participation are unknown; two iugera per colonist do not measure the colony's full common or undistributed land" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and degree of Volscian participation are unknown; two iugera per colonist do not measure the colony's full common or undistributed land" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and degree of Volscian participation are unknown; two iugera per colonist do not measure the colony's full common or undistributed land" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and degree of Volscian participation are unknown; two iugera per colonist do not measure the colony's full common or undistributed land" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and degree of Volscian participation are unknown; two iugera per colonist do not measure the colony's full common or undistributed land" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 0 records strong archaeological, settlement, and cult continuity and no documented expulsion; it is not a census-derived claim that every prior resident stayed." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 0 uses the attributed three-hundred-person incoming colony only as a below-1,000 magnitude bin; it does not imply a matching displaced population." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded foundation and allotment episode, which preserves continuity and reports no population decline through death." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated resident movement from Tarracina." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative land allotment at an existing controlled city without a documented armed resident-removal operation in this event." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded foundation episode, for which no process deaths are reported and continuity is positive." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated displacement and strong local continuity." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode; incoming placement is measured separately." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.7946887713, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7946887713, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7946887713 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 27.8077828451, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 72.2859988768 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.343616451, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 52.343616451 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-fregellae-contested-colony", "name": "Rome, Latin colonists, Samnites, and Volscian Fregellae", "start": -328, "end": -328, "date_label": "328 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state Latin-colony foundation at an abandoned or destroyed site in territory claimed by Samnites and earlier associated with Volsci (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Fregellae" ], "victims": [ "Samnite claimants and Volscian or local land users affected by Roman settlement of the contested territory" ], "summary": "Rome planted a Latin colony at the destroyed or abandoned site of Fregellae in territory claimed by the Samnites and earlier associated with the Volsci Evidence limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation", "confidence": "high on the 328 BCE colony, unoccupied town site, contested land, and role as a casus belli; low on whether the land was then Volscian or Samnite, immediate rural users, resident movement, settler total, parcels, household composition, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.02.0155%3Abook%3D8" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: treccani.it", "url": "https://www.treccani.it/enciclopedia/fregellae_%28Enciclopedia-dell%27-Arte-Antica%29/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "colony_on_unoccupied_site_in_contested_volscian_samnite_territory", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-fregellae-contested-colony", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "fregellae_three_phase", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The sources disagree over whether the land was Volscian or Samnite at the point of Roman settlement and do not identify a resident population expelled by the 328 foundation" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 1 records juridical displacement of a live Samnite or Volscian territorial claim by the colony; it does not infer a resident expulsion from the unoccupied town site." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records a specific contested territory placed under colonial tenure while immediate rural users and the Volscian-versus-Samnite title remain unresolved." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 3 records a colonial and Roman territorial order that survived the colony's later civic destruction without implying an unreversed Fregellan civic community to the present." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 2 records construction of an ex novo fortified colonial town as a community-scale work, not a region-wide infrastructure network." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records a new colonial center and rural organization on contested land while prior rural use remains uncertain." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the 328 BCE foundation, which reports no killing; any earlier destruction or abandonment is not reassigned to the Roman settlers." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state settlement of politically contested land without a documented armed removal at the foundation site." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a deliberate state colonial foundation on contested land; it does not imply a resident-removal directive." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a durable Latin colonial core in contested territory while rural population continuity remains unresolved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records a territorial claim and foundation rather than ascriptive targeting of Samnites or Volsci as persons." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation at foundation." }, { "dimension": "ssi_external_contestation_peak", "note": "Score 4 records the Samnite armed challenge for which the Roman foundation became a casus belli; that contest did not reverse the colony in 328 BCE." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.6991631797, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.0178324934, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4230007978 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 45.5424445028, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.7972074722, "unknown_bound_high": 55.9995957631 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.1601955894, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.8770789181, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.049916336, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.3147028497, "unknown_bound_high": 59.7758016688 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-saticula-capture-colony-316-313", "name": "Saticula capture and Latin colony", "start": -316, "end": -313, "date_label": "316–313 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state siege and capture followed within several years by a colonial foundation at an uncertain site with resident treatment unresolved (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Saticula" ], "victims": [ "Samnite residents and landholders of Saticula" ], "summary": "Livy's war narrative and the later foundation tradition converge on Roman capture of Saticula followed by a Latin colony within several years Evidence limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels", "confidence": "high on capture and medium on the linked foundation; low on exact site, resident treatment, settler count, parcels, household composition, and the settlement's later local demographic order", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: keytoumbria.com", "url": "https://www.keytoumbria.com/ROMAN_REPUBLIC/Second_Samnite_War_III_%28315_-_312_BC%29.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: treccani.it", "url": "https://www.treccani.it/enciclopedia/saticula_%28Enciclopedia-Italiana%29/" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/thayer/e/roman/texts/velleius_paterculus/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "captured_samnite_city_followed_by_medium_confidence_colony", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-saticula-capture-colony-316-313", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "The evidence does not support a defensible event-specific persistence judgment rather than a generic inference from later Roman rule. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The exact site is unresolved, the foundation is absent from Livy's surviving colony list, and no source gives resident treatment, settler count, or parcels" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 0 records capture and settlement without a positively documented resident killing, removal, assimilation, status-erasure, or narrative-erasure mechanism." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records the siege and armed capture of the named Samnite city; it does not convert that conquest into a resident-expulsion claim." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.4965459797, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.2765550474, "unknown_bound_high": 82.6817233519 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 20.410038108, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.4908233402, "unknown_bound_high": 35.693211631 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.4630541383, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.7472251629, "unknown_bound_high": 73.8574779927 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 22.8765322676, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4563498733, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.4397026023, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-auruncian-destruction-colonial-reorganization-315-296", "name": "Auruncian city destruction and Suessa-Minturnae-Sinuessa colonial reorganization", "start": -315, "end": -296, "date_label": "315–296 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest, city destruction, and severe killing followed by three colonial nodes on reorganized Auruncian territory (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman and Latin colonists at Suessa Aurunca, Minturnae, and Sinuessa" ], "victims": [ "Auruncian residents of Ausona, Minturnae, and Vescia", "Auruncian landholders affected by the successor colonial reorganization" ], "summary": "Livy reports that Roman forces entered the three Auruncian cities by treachery and carried out indiscriminate killing; Suessa Aurunca followed in 313 and the linked maritime colonies of Minturnae and Sinuessa in 296 on reorganized Auruncian territory Evidence limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel", "confidence": "high on the treachery-assisted capture, severe killing claim, and three successor colonial nodes; medium on the regional linkage; low on a resident denominator, survivor incorporation, exact old-to-new footprints, settler totals, parcels, and household composition", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: skuola.net", "url": "https://www.skuola.net/versioni-latino/livio/ab-urbe-condita/libro-9/paragrafo-25" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: books.openedition.org", "url": "https://books.openedition.org/cdf/4272?lang=en" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: mdpi.com", "url": "https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/3/344" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "regional_city_destruction_killing_and_three_successor_colonies", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "settler_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-auruncian-destruction-colonial-reorganization-315-296", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "auruncian_regional_sequence", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Livy's totalizing killing language is not a census; Suessa's exact relationship to destroyed Ausona is debated, Sinuessa's site relationship to Vescia is reconstructed, and the nineteen-year sequence does not reveal every survivor or parcel" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 2 records the transmitted combination of severe killing and destruction of the three Auruncian civic communities; it does not add an undocumented expulsion, assimilation program, or narrative-erasure system." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records specific territorial reorganization for Suessa Aurunca, Minturnae, and Sinuessa while stopping below a majority-territory score because exact old-to-new footprints and rural parcels are unresolved." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records the durable successor colonial nodes and Roman territorial order, not a claim that every Auruncian survivor or descendant disappeared." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 preserves the nineteen-year destruction-to-final-foundation sequence rather than collapsing the three successor nodes into one founding pulse." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records the Roman army's treachery-assisted seizure of the three cities and severe killing; the source does not describe a custodial deportation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_subsistence_destruction", "note": "Score 2 records campaign-bounded destruction of three urban civic and livelihood centers without inferring a region-wide attack on every field, herd, or food supply." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 2 records a violent conquest followed by separately dated colonial reorganization; no source establishes one comprehensive pre-existing removal-and-settlement plan." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records three durable Roman colonial cores while leaving the degree of surviving Auruncian rural continuity unresolved." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.908868231, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.4062606324, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8114289368 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 47.6457509966, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.4966288861, "unknown_bound_high": 57.699017177 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0063851275, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3312049575 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.5342106563, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3491486389, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4594014687 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 65.4974741054, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.335769133, "unknown_bound_high": 69.7968679522 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-sora-contested-colony-315-303", "name": "Sora revolt, Roman recapture, and renewed Latin colony", "start": -315, "end": -303, "date_label": "315–303 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "contested colonial rule, resident revolt, Roman recapture and selective execution, and renewed state settlement with most local inhabitants spared (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Sora", "Soran residents acting during the anti-colonial revolt" ], "victims": [ "Soran leaders executed after Roman recapture and local landholders affected by renewed allotment", "The earlier Roman colonial body killed during the Soran revolt" ], "summary": "Sora's inhabitants killed an earlier Roman colonial body during revolt; Rome recaptured the city, executed leaders while sparing other inhabitants, and after further reversals sent four thousand colonists in 303 Evidence limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account", "confidence": "high on the revolt, killing of the earlier colonial body, selective Roman execution, sparing of most inhabitants, and the attributed four-thousand-person renewed colony; low on the first colony's land, the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares or movement, household composition, and successor population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.04.0064%3Aentry%3Dsora-geo" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "contested_colony_revolt_selective_execution_and_renewed_settlement", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-sora-contested-colony-315-303", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The first colony's date and land are unclear; no source gives the 303 parcel map, resident legal shares, or movement, and the spared population must not disappear from the account" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 1 records killing as the one positively documented transfer mode across the reciprocal sequence; it does not turn renewed settlement or political recapture into an undocumented mass removal." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records the final consolidation of the renewed Soran colony after repeated reversals, not an uninterrupted or wholly replacing colonial history." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 0 records the source's explicit sparing of most Soran inhabitants and no reported resident expulsion; it does not claim that no individual landholder moved." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 1 uses the attributed four thousand incoming colonists only as the larger directly moved stream's 1,000–10,000 bin; it is not a count of displaced Sorans or a city census." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 preserves the twelve-year contested sequence rather than treating the revolt, recapture, and renewed settlement as simultaneous." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated removal route for the Soran resident majority that the source says was spared." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records Roman armed recapture and selective execution after revolt; it does not imply a population roundup or custodial transfer." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records a renewed Latin colonial institution alongside explicit Soran resident continuity rather than region-wide cultural replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated resident exile or durable return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete displacement of the spared Soran majority; the incoming colonial pulse is measured separately." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records the source's behavioral distinction between revolt leaders who were executed and other residents who were spared, not an ascriptive population category." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.7946887713, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7946887713, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7946887713 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 20.8558371338, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0063851275, "unknown_bound_high": 69.6172038343 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.0684213127, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 76.8912397299 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.9324270057, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.9324270057, "unknown_bound_high": 54.9324270057 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-luceria-314-destruction-colony", "name": "Rome, Lucerians, Samnites, and Roman colonists", "start": -314, "end": -314, "date_label": "314 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state recapture and punitive killing followed by a 2,500-person successor colony at Luceria, with later Samnite continuity (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman colonists at Luceria" ], "victims": [ "Lucerian defenders and Samnite residents and landholders affected by punitive recapture and settlement" ], "summary": "Roman forces retook Luceria; Livy reports a punitive killing, a senatorial debate over demolition, and the dispatch of 2,500 colonists Evidence limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim", "confidence": "high on Roman recapture, punitive killing claim, senatorial demolition debate, attributed 2,500-person colony, and later Samnite incolae; low on a casualty or resident denominator, chronology, parcels, household composition, resident legal shares, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Liv.+9.26.18&lang=original" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: dokumen.pub", "url": "https://dokumen.pub/tota-italia-essays-in-the-cultural-formation-of-roman-italy-0198143931-9780198143932.html" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "punitive_capture_killing_claim_and_successor_colony_with_local_continuity", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "settler_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-luceria-314-destruction-colony", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Livy's killed-to-a-man formula is an ancient narrative claim rather than a census; the 323 to 314 foundation chronology varies; later Samnite incolae prevent a simple total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records later Samnite incolae as part of the successor center's productive population rather than an economy designed to exclude all local labor." }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 2 records punitive killing and juridical-civic replacement through the successor colony; it does not add an undocumented captive transfer or narrative-erasure system." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records a substantial successor colony after punitive recapture while leaving the parcel map and retained Samnite claims unresolved." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records later local incolae without evidence that they formed a separate coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records reorganization of a captured city and territory for a successor colony while preserving later local continuity." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 3 records Livy's attributed destruction of the defending population constrained by later Samnite incolae; it is not a census or a claim that every local resident disappeared." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 1 uses the attributed 2,500 incoming colonists only as the larger directly moved stream's 1,000–10,000 bin; it is not a displaced-resident count." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "Score 3 uses later Samnite incolae as a membership proxy for substantial local continuity or return, not a genetic estimate or precise percentage." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records armed recapture and punitive killing without a documented custodial deportation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 2 records punitive violence followed by a separate senatorial debate and colonial decision, not one comprehensive preplanned removal-and-settlement program." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a Roman colonial core after violent recapture while later Samnite incolae remained visible." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.908868231, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.4062606324, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8114289368 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 57.8605800503, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.7499668017, "unknown_bound_high": 65.9523550926 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 57.7830835303, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7950972729, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 45.943172135, "unknown_bound_high": 66.4334448445 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.6737884871, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.8147486374, "unknown_bound_high": 79.9250014672 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-pontiae-volscian-colony-313", "name": "Roman colony on Volscian-inhabited Pontiae", "start": -313, "end": -313, "date_label": "313 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state colonial settlement and land taking on a specifically Volscian-inhabited island with resident movement unresolved (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman citizen colonists at Pontiae" ], "victims": [ "Volscian inhabitants and landholders of Pontiae" ], "summary": "Livy identifies Pontiae as an island inhabited by Volsci before the Roman colony; colonial settlement implies allotted land, but no source reports a mass expulsion Evidence limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared", "confidence": "high that the island was inhabited before incoming settlement and medium on a land-taking colony; low on colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, household composition, and settlement footprint", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: keytoumbria.com", "url": "https://www.keytoumbria.com/Umbria/30_Latin_Colonies_of_209_BC.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: treccani.it", "url": "https://www.treccani.it/enciclopedia/colonizzazione_%28Enciclopedia-Italiana%29/" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "colonial_settlement_on_inhabited_island_without_bounded_removal", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-pontiae-volscian-colony-313", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The colonist count, allotted area, resident survival or movement, and settlement footprint are unknown; the island cannot be treated as empty or wholly cleared" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 0 records incoming settlement on occupied land without any positively documented killing, removal, assimilation, status-erasure, or narrative-erasure mechanism." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded foundation notice, which reports no process deaths; resident survival and movement remain separate unknowns." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no documented removal route from the island rather than treating unknown resident outcomes as expulsion." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state-organized settlement and tenure change without a documented armed removal of the Volscian inhabitants." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated resident removal or return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "ssi_geopolitical_separation", "note": "Score 2 records the short sea crossing to an island within Rome's regional frontier, not long-range or isolated colonization." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 76.2765550474, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.2765550474, "unknown_bound_high": 76.2765550474 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 20.410038108, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.4908233402, "unknown_bound_high": 35.693211631 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.3255104302, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 89.0328695747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 6.9386750553, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.9386750553, "unknown_bound_high": 6.9386750553 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.343616451, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 52.343616451 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-interamna-lirenas-colony-312", "name": "Interamna Lirenas colony imposed over earlier settlements", "start": -312, "end": -312, "date_label": "312 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state placement of a large Latin colony and planned allotment landscape at the expense of earlier settlements with resident movement unresolved (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Interamna Lirenas" ], "victims": [ "Earlier local settlements and landholders affected by the colonial landscape" ], "summary": "Livy reports four thousand settlers; landscape archaeology describes the foundation as imposed at the expense of earlier settlements and identifies a probable early strigatio or scamnatio allotment system Evidence limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain", "confidence": "high on Livy's four-thousand-person claim as an attributed magnitude and on an imposed early allotment landscape; medium on the first survey form; low on predecessor identities, resident movement or incorporation, household composition, exact grid, and later centuriation relationship", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: api.repository.cam.ac.uk", "url": "https://api.repository.cam.ac.uk/server/api/core/bitstreams/87f63d70-0fc4-49f5-8e5b-aae2f85a21f0/content" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: treccani.it", "url": "https://www.treccani.it/enciclopedia/interamna-lirenas_%28Enciclopedia-dell%27-Arte-Antica%29/" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "large_imposed_colony_and_early_allotment_landscape", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-interamna-lirenas-colony-312", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The affected predecessor settlements, resident movement or incorporation, exact first allotment grid, household scale, and relationship to later centuriation are uncertain" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records a systematic colonial allotment landscape imposed across the bounded territory at the expense of earlier settlements; it does not establish removal of every prior resident." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 2 records the planned colonial settlement and community-scale allotment landscape, not later centuriation or infrastructure imported backward into 312 BCE." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records re-planning of an already settled rural landscape rather than total conversion or turnkey assumption." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 1 uses Livy's four thousand settlers only as an attributed 1,000-10,000 incoming-stream bin; it does not quantify displaced residents." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded imposition and allotment process, for which no excess deaths are reported; resident movement remains unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state administrative imposition of a colonial land system without a documented armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded foundation process, which reports no attributable deaths." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records an imposed colonial town and allotment landscape over earlier settlements while stopping below region-wide cultural replacement." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.1185732823, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7946887713, "unknown_bound_high": 84.1998570758 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 60.730584353, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.0688617342, "unknown_bound_high": 68.2712500251 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.1601955894, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.8770789181, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-narnia-nequinum-capture-colony-300-299", "name": "Capture of Nequinum and foundation of Narnia", "start": -300, "end": -299, "date_label": "300–299 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state siege and betrayal-assisted capture followed by renaming and a Latin colony at the same Umbrian city, with resident treatment unresolved (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Narnia", "Nequinum insiders who enabled the Roman capture" ], "victims": [ "Umbrian residents and landholders of Nequinum affected by conquest and colonial reconstitution" ], "summary": "Livy records Nequinum's capture after a long siege and a colony founded there as Narnia; archaeological and later evidence confirm a pre-existing Umbrian center Evidence limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response", "confidence": "high on the long siege, betrayal-assisted capture, renaming, same-site colony, and pre-existing Umbrian center; low on killing, expulsion, loyalist incorporation, settler count, parcels, household composition, resident legal shares, and successor population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: attalus.org", "url": "https://www.attalus.org/names/n/nequinum.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: academic.oup.com", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/61673/chapter/549687296" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: discovery.ucl.ac.uk", "url": "https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10100165/1/10055445.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "siege_betrayal_capture_and_same_site_colony_with_unknown_resident_partition", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-narnia-nequinum-capture-colony-300-299", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Resident expulsion, killing, loyalist incorporation, settler count, and parcel division are unknown; treachery suggests internal political division rather than one uniform resident response" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 0 records armed capture and incoming settlement without a positively documented resident killing, removal, coerced assimilation, juridical erasure, or narrative-erasure mechanism." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 1 records the bounded renaming from Nequinum to Narnia while the prior Umbrian city and its occupation remain openly documented rather than denied." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records Narnia's durable colonial and civic continuity after 299 BCE, not a claim that the local population was replaced." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the capture-to-colony transition within the 300–299 BCE source window while leaving the long preceding siege visible in the event description." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records prolonged siege and armed capture; it does not infer massacre, expulsion, or custodial removal." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records the renamed Latin colonial institution at a continuing Umbrian center while resident incorporation and exclusion remain unresolved." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.4965459797, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.2765550474, "unknown_bound_high": 82.6817233519 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 20.410038108, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.4908233402, "unknown_bound_high": 35.693211631 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.4630541383, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.7472251629, "unknown_bound_high": 73.8574779927 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-venusia-291-conquest-colony", "name": "Rome, Venusians, regional communities, and Latin colonists", "start": -291, "end": -291, "date_label": "291 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest and a very large reported Latin colony at populous Venusia with probable local majority or co-residence (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Venusia" ], "victims": [ "Venusian and regional Samnite, Lucanian, and Daunian residents and landholders affected by conquest and colonial reconstitution" ], "summary": "Rome captured populous Venusia during the Third Samnite War and established a very large Latin colony there Evidence limit: Dionysius's campaign-wide 10,000 killed and 6,200 surrendered cannot be assigned to Venusia; the reported 20,000 colonists is disputed; the pre-colonial site and local-to-newcomer proportions remain uncertain", "confidence": "high on capture, populous prior center, and durable colony; medium on substantial incoming settlement and local co-residence; low on Venusia-specific casualties or surrenders, the disputed 20,000 figure, pre-colonial site, parcels, household composition, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Dionysius_of_Halicarnassus/17-18%2A.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/thayer/e/roman/texts/velleius_paterculus/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: books.openedition.org", "url": "https://books.openedition.org/pur/199839" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: link.springer.com", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12520-017-0561-y" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 3: dokumen.pub", "url": "https://dokumen.pub/tota-italia-essays-in-the-cultural-formation-of-roman-italy-0198143931-9780198143932.html" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "captured_populous_center_large_disputed_colony_and_local_coresidence", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-venusia-291-conquest-colony", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Dionysius's campaign-wide 10,000 killed and 6,200 surrendered cannot be assigned to Venusia; the reported 20,000 colonists is disputed; the pre-colonial site and local-to-newcomer proportions remain uncertain" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Dionysius's campaign-wide 10,000 killed and 6,200 surrendered cannot be assigned to Venusia; the reported 20,000 colonists is disputed; the pre-colonial site and local-to-newcomer proportions remain uncertain" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Dionysius's campaign-wide 10,000 killed and 6,200 surrendered cannot be assigned to Venusia; the reported 20,000 colonists is disputed; the pre-colonial site and local-to-newcomer proportions remain uncertain" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Dionysius's campaign-wide 10,000 killed and 6,200 surrendered cannot be assigned to Venusia; the reported 20,000 colonists is disputed; the pre-colonial site and local-to-newcomer proportions remain uncertain" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Dionysius's campaign-wide 10,000 killed and 6,200 surrendered cannot be assigned to Venusia; the reported 20,000 colonists is disputed; the pre-colonial site and local-to-newcomer proportions remain uncertain" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Dionysius's campaign-wide 10,000 killed and 6,200 surrendered cannot be assigned to Venusia; the reported 20,000 colonists is disputed; the pre-colonial site and local-to-newcomer proportions remain uncertain" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Dionysius's campaign-wide 10,000 killed and 6,200 surrendered cannot be assigned to Venusia; the reported 20,000 colonists is disputed; the pre-colonial site and local-to-newcomer proportions remain uncertain" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Dionysius's campaign-wide 10,000 killed and 6,200 surrendered cannot be assigned to Venusia; the reported 20,000 colonists is disputed; the pre-colonial site and local-to-newcomer proportions remain uncertain" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Dionysius's campaign-wide 10,000 killed and 6,200 surrendered cannot be assigned to Venusia; the reported 20,000 colonists is disputed; the pre-colonial site and local-to-newcomer proportions remain uncertain" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Dionysius's campaign-wide 10,000 killed and 6,200 surrendered cannot be assigned to Venusia; the reported 20,000 colonists is disputed; the pre-colonial site and local-to-newcomer proportions remain uncertain" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Dionysius's campaign-wide 10,000 killed and 6,200 surrendered cannot be assigned to Venusia; the reported 20,000 colonists is disputed; the pre-colonial site and local-to-newcomer proportions remain uncertain" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records probable local majority or co-residence as part of the successor productive community rather than an economy designed to exclude local labor." }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 0 records conquest and settlement without assigning campaign-wide killing or surrender totals to Venusia or inventing a local removal mechanism." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records a major durable colonial land reorganization while the disputed colonist total and local parcel shares remain unresolved." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records probable local co-residence without evidence of a separate coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records re-planning of an occupied agrarian center for a major colony rather than blank-slate replacement." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 1 records localized land loss constrained by a populous pre-colonial center and probable local majority or co-residence; it is not a census-derived percentage." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated Venusian removal route." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "Score 4 uses probable local-majority or co-resident continuity as a membership proxy, not a genetic estimate or precise percentage." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records armed conquest of Venusia without assigning campaign-wide casualty claims or a mass-expulsion route to the city." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records Latin colonial institutions within a probably co-resident local population rather than region-wide replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime over continuing local residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records territorial conquest rather than an ascriptive rule targeting all regional residents." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 1 records probable local co-residence under a differentiated Latin-colony polity while stopping short of claiming equal legal shares." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.7946887713, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7946887713, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7946887713 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 53.6539670627, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.3511239739, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5535122647 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 36.4193223894, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.9510584993, "unknown_bound_high": 42.4742007835 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 26.0548244427, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.7472251629, "unknown_bound_high": 60.9845393382 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.343616451, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 52.343616451 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-curius-sabine-allotment-290", "name": "Curius Dentatus and the seven-iugera Sabine allotment tradition", "start": -290, "end": -290, "date_label": "290 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "probable state distribution of conquered Sabine land to ordinary soldiers under a disputed allotment tradition (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Manius Curius Dentatus and Roman soldier allottees" ], "victims": [ "Sabine landholders affected by the conquest-linked distribution" ], "summary": "Frontinus and later traditions connect Manius Curius Dentatus's victory with an ordinary soldier's land share, conventionally seven iugera, and modern scholarship treats a large Sabine distribution as plausible but disputed in chronology and constitutional detail Evidence limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded", "confidence": "medium on a large conquest-linked Sabine distribution; low on exact date, source territory, administration, seven-iugera detail, recipient total, prior holders, resident movement, household composition, and aftermath", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/thayer/l/roman/texts/frontinus/strategemata/4%2A.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: attalus.org", "url": "https://www.attalus.org/names/d/dentatus.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: cambridge.org", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/consul-at-rome/colonization-and-distribution-of-land/43C42E7824645FF663A26E76F6942007" }, { "title": "Primary source 4: broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_VIRITANE_PREGRACCHAN_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_VIRITANE_PREGRACCHAN_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_viritane_pregracchan_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_viritane_pregracchan_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "medium_confidence_conquest_linked_soldier_allotment", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-curius-sabine-allotment-290", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "The evidence does not support a defensible event-specific persistence judgment rather than a generic inference from later Roman rule. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The date, exact source territory, allotment administration, recipient count, prior holders, and resident movement are disputed or unrecorded" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records individual soldier allottees without a separate settler-run polity." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records a probable bounded Sabine land transfer while the source territory, exact formula, prior holders, and administration remain disputed." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued agrarian use under probable new individual tenure rather than a demonstrated production transformation." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded allotment tradition, which reports no process deaths; conquest mortality is not inferred." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records probable state distribution of conquered land without a documented armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the allotment process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records land-based distribution rather than ascriptive targeting of Sabines as persons." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records individual soldier grants rather than a corporate colony." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.7376550225, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.5022206502, "unknown_bound_high": 82.9073889546 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 37.7014844519, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.461899016, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6642873069 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.1601955894, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.8770789181, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 44.2495396954, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6742324678, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 29.8344763458, "unknown_bound_high": 62.4112295705 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-hadria-praetuttian-land-colony-290-286", "name": "Hadria colony on ceded or confiscated Praetuttian land", "start": -290, "end": -286, "date_label": "290–286 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state colonial foundation on a Praetuttian coastal strip whose transfer may have been cession or partial confiscation, with no bounded removal (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Hadria" ], "victims": [ "Praetuttian holders affected by the coastal land transfer" ], "summary": "The foundation is securely associated with the early third century; specialist synthesis describes a coastal land strip ceded or partly confiscated for the colony Evidence limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown", "confidence": "high on the early-third-century foundation and medium on a ceded or partly confiscated coastal strip; low on foundation year, legal transfer character, affected holders, resident movement, settler body, parcels, and household composition", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: ejournals.eu", "url": "https://ejournals.eu/en/journal_article_files/full_text/018eced3-936a-734d-a97e-cbaffba8d8f2/download" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: treccani.it", "url": "https://www.treccani.it/enciclopedia/atri_%28Enciclopedia-dell%27-Arte-Antica%29/" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "colonial_foundation_on_ceded_or_confiscated_coastal_strip", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-hadria-praetuttian-land-colony-290-286", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "The bounded evidence does not establish whether land or labor was the binding factor when the destination economy was organized. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The foundation year, legal character of the land cession, affected holders, resident movement, and allotment scale are disputed or unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded land-transfer and foundation process, for which no deaths are reported; resident movement remains unknown." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 preserves the source-frozen four-year foundation window instead of selecting one disputed year." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no documented Praetuttian removal route." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state land transfer and settlement while preserving the unresolved cession-versus-confiscation distinction and without inventing armed removal." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated resident displacement or return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 73.9248079021, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.9248079021, "unknown_bound_high": 73.9248079021 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 37.7014844519, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.461899016, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6642873069 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 71.7235995538, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3786989604, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 89.2917565467 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 36.9941328227, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0063851275, "unknown_bound_high": 86.3640745322 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.9324270057, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.9324270057, "unknown_bound_high": 54.9324270057 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-senones-expulsion-sena", "name": "Romans and Senones", "start": -284, "end": -283, "date_label": "284–283 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest, mass killing, expulsion, and successor colony (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman army and citizen colonists at Sena Gallica" ], "victims": [ "Senone communities in Ager Gallicus" ], "summary": "Senone survivors expelled from their territory and a Roman colony planted at Sena Gallica Evidence limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE", "confidence": "high on the bounded killing-expulsion-colony sequence; medium on chronology and land scope; low on population totals, destinations, household composition, and survivor demography", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0234%3Abook%3D2%3Achapter%3D19" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: cambridge.org", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-roman-studies/article/connectivity-and-disconnectivity-in-the-roman-empire/712C95A9B097B44CA076473E08577C4D" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "expulsion_killing_and_successor_colony", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "settler_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-senones-expulsion-sena", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "ager_gallicus_multiphase", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The expelled population's destination and count are unknown; Polybius's totalizing phrase is not a census; modern chronology varies between 284 and 283 BCE" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "Score 3 records a durable citizen-colony community with heritable landholding while stopping below whole-family score 4 because no household or sex-ratio table survives." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 4 is confined to Polybius's bounded claim that most Senones were killed and the remainder expelled; it is not treated as a census or extrapolated beyond the affected territory." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 4 follows the source's claim that killing accounted for most of the bounded Senone population decline, with expulsion accounting for the remainder; it remains an attributed ancient claim." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 4 records Polybius's claim that most of the bounded group was killed, not a reconstructed casualty total." }, { "dimension": "ssi_external_contestation_peak", "note": "Score 4 records the subsequent armed Boii and Etruscan response that Polybius links to fear after the Senone destruction and Roman frontier expansion; it did not reverse the colony." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.2101368607, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.2101368607, "unknown_bound_high": 85.2101368607 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 59.6092155717, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.1628225404, "unknown_bound_high": 67.3652108313 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.2610398758, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.7347920829, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4340433819 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 95.1454265268, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5647834195, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.7365593416, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.7512892621, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.9624566876, "unknown_bound_high": 63.5176628112 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 64.8047152702, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.8047152702, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-cosa-vulci-land", "name": "Rome, Vulci, and Latin colonists at Cosa", "start": -280, "end": -273, "date_label": "280–273 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state seizure of Vulcian territory followed by an ex novo Latin colonial town and planned rural allotment (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Cosa" ], "victims": [ "Vulcian and Etruscan rural landholders affected by the transferred colonial territory" ], "summary": "After Vulci's defeat Rome founded Cosa as a new Latin colonial town and divided conquered territory for colonists Evidence limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory", "confidence": "high on Vulci's defeat, conquered source territory, ex novo colonial center, and rural allotment; low on prior promontory residents, individual rural holders, movement, settler total, household composition, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/thayer/e/roman/texts/velleius_paterculus/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.04.0006%3Aentry%3Dcosa" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: produccioncientifica.ugr.es", "url": "https://produccioncientifica.ugr.es/documentos/63bc33313035a915c707b980?lang=en" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "defeated_vulcian_territory_ex_novo_colony_and_rural_allotment", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-cosa-vulci-land", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: No source identifies a displaced city population at the promontory, reconstructs every prior rural landholder, or proves total removal from the allotted territory" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records systematic transfer and rural division of conquered Vulcian territory while leaving individual prior holders and the full affected share unresolved." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 2 records construction of an ex novo planned colonial town as a community-scale work, not a region-wide infrastructure network." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records planned reorganization of conquered rural land around a new town rather than total conversion of all Vulcian production." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 preserves the seven-year defeat-to-foundation window rather than selecting one disputed instantaneous transfer date." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records conquest of Vulcian territory without inventing a population expulsion from an unoccupied promontory site." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a deliberate ex novo town and rural-allotment program; it does not imply a resident-removal order." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a new Latin urban and rural colonial core while prior rural residence and continuity remain unresolved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records territorial conquest and parcel redivision rather than ascriptive targeting of Vulci's population." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.6991631797, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.0178324934, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4230007978 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 60.730584353, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.0688617342, "unknown_bound_high": 68.2712500251 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.1601955894, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.8770789181, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0063851275, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3312049575 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.0684213127, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 76.8912397299 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 62.7520179768, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.9324270057, "unknown_bound_high": 67.3935258248 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-beneventum-samnite-colony", "name": "Rome, Latin colonists, and Samnite residents at Beneventum", "start": -275, "end": -268, "date_label": "275–268 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest and Latin colonial allotment around a renamed existing Samnite center with strong local aristocratic and Oscan continuity (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Beneventum" ], "victims": [ "Samnite residents and landholders affected by conquest and colonial allotment" ], "summary": "Following Roman victory in Samnite territory, a Latin colony was founded at the existing major settlement renamed Beneventum Evidence limit: Archaeology does not show a traumatic foundation horizon; native aristocratic and Oscan continuity argues against total replacement; exact confiscated parcels and population shares are unknown", "confidence": "high on conquest context, existing major settlement, renamed colony, and native aristocratic and Oscan continuity; low on exact parcels, settler total, household composition, resident movement, legal shares, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/thayer/e/roman/texts/velleius_paterculus/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: dokumen.pub", "url": "https://dokumen.pub/ancient-samnium-settlement-culture-and-identity-between-history-and-archaeology.html" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "conquest_allotment_renaming_and_integrated_samnite_colony", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-beneventum-samnite-colony", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Archaeology does not show a traumatic foundation horizon; native aristocratic and Oscan continuity argues against total replacement; exact confiscated parcels and population shares are unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Archaeology does not show a traumatic foundation horizon; native aristocratic and Oscan continuity argues against total replacement; exact confiscated parcels and population shares are unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Archaeology does not show a traumatic foundation horizon; native aristocratic and Oscan continuity argues against total replacement; exact confiscated parcels and population shares are unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Archaeology does not show a traumatic foundation horizon; native aristocratic and Oscan continuity argues against total replacement; exact confiscated parcels and population shares are unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Archaeology does not show a traumatic foundation horizon; native aristocratic and Oscan continuity argues against total replacement; exact confiscated parcels and population shares are unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Archaeology does not show a traumatic foundation horizon; native aristocratic and Oscan continuity argues against total replacement; exact confiscated parcels and population shares are unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Archaeology does not show a traumatic foundation horizon; native aristocratic and Oscan continuity argues against total replacement; exact confiscated parcels and population shares are unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Archaeology does not show a traumatic foundation horizon; native aristocratic and Oscan continuity argues against total replacement; exact confiscated parcels and population shares are unknown" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records native aristocratic and Oscan continuity as part of the successor center's productive and institutional base rather than an economy designed to exclude local labor." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records colonial land transfer around the existing center while exact confiscated parcels and retained Samnite claims remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 1 records the bounded renaming to Beneventum while the earlier Samnite center and local continuity remain openly documented rather than erased." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records integrated Samnite continuity without evidence of a separate coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued urban and agrarian use under a new colonial tenure layer rather than a new production system." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 0 records no traumatic foundation horizon and strong native aristocratic and Oscan continuity; it is not a census-derived claim that every resident stayed." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no documented demographic decline or process deaths in the bounded foundation sequence." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 preserves the seven-year victory-to-foundation window rather than selecting one instantaneous conquest-and-settlement date." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated Samnite removal route from Beneventum." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "Score 4 uses native aristocratic, linguistic, and settlement continuity as a membership proxy, not a genetic estimate or precise percentage." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records armed conquest of Samnite territory while positive continuity rules out an inferred mass resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths or traumatic destruction in the bounded settlement process." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records Latin colonial institutions alongside strong Samnite and Oscan continuity rather than region-wide replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime over continuing Samnite residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records territorial conquest and incorporation rather than ascriptive targeting of Samnites." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 1 records integrated Samnite residents within a differentiated Latin-colony polity while stopping short of claiming equal legal shares." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 76.2765550474, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.2765550474, "unknown_bound_high": 76.2765550474 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 37.7014844519, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.461899016, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6642873069 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 28.842232634, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.0955457823, "unknown_bound_high": 35.6186880666 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 16.7809869001, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 16.7809869001 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.9324270057, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.9324270057, "unknown_bound_high": 54.9324270057 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-paestum-integrated-colony", "name": "Rome, Latin colonists, and Greek-Lucanian residents of Paestum", "start": -273, "end": -273, "date_label": "273 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-directed Latin colonial settlement and land reconstitution within a continuing Greek-Lucanian city (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Paestum" ], "victims": [ "Greek-Lucanian residents and landholders of Paestum affected by colonial reconstitution" ], "summary": "Rome founded a Latin colony at Paestum while an established Greek-Lucanian community continued at the site and became closely integrated with the colonial polity Evidence limit: No evidence supports wholesale resident expulsion or a precise partition of land between colonists and Greek-Lucanian residents; the 268 BCE Picentine transfer is a separate later operation", "confidence": "high on the 273 BCE Latin colony, the established Greek-Lucanian community, and close subsequent integration; low on settler totals, parcel division, household composition, population shares, and the precise legal position of every continuing resident", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/thayer/e/roman/texts/velleius_paterculus/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: parchipaestumvelia.cultura.gov.it", "url": "https://parchipaestumvelia.cultura.gov.it/en/the-story-of-paestum/" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: dokumen.pub", "url": "https://dokumen.pub/tota-italia-essays-in-the-cultural-formation-of-roman-italy-0198143931-9780198143932.html" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "latin_colony_integrated_with_continuing_greek_lucanian_community", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-paestum-integrated-colony", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: No evidence supports wholesale resident expulsion or a precise partition of land between colonists and Greek-Lucanian residents; the 268 BCE Picentine transfer is a separate later operation" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: No evidence supports wholesale resident expulsion or a precise partition of land between colonists and Greek-Lucanian residents; the 268 BCE Picentine transfer is a separate later operation" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: No evidence supports wholesale resident expulsion or a precise partition of land between colonists and Greek-Lucanian residents; the 268 BCE Picentine transfer is a separate later operation" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No evidence supports wholesale resident expulsion or a precise partition of land between colonists and Greek-Lucanian residents; the 268 BCE Picentine transfer is a separate later operation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: No evidence supports wholesale resident expulsion or a precise partition of land between colonists and Greek-Lucanian residents; the 268 BCE Picentine transfer is a separate later operation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: No evidence supports wholesale resident expulsion or a precise partition of land between colonists and Greek-Lucanian residents; the 268 BCE Picentine transfer is a separate later operation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: No evidence supports wholesale resident expulsion or a precise partition of land between colonists and Greek-Lucanian residents; the 268 BCE Picentine transfer is a separate later operation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No evidence supports wholesale resident expulsion or a precise partition of land between colonists and Greek-Lucanian residents; the 268 BCE Picentine transfer is a separate later operation" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records the continuing Greek-Lucanian community as part of the successor city's ordinary social and productive base rather than a separately coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records a colonial land layer at one existing community while parcel boundaries and retained resident claims remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 0 records open preservation of the city's Greek-Lucanian past and continuing community rather than an emptiness or priority-erasure story." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records integrated local continuity without evidence of a designated dependent-labor regime." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued urban and agrarian use under a new colonial tenure layer rather than replacement of Paestum's economy." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 0 uses positive evidence that the established Greek-Lucanian community continued and integrated; it is not a census claim that every resident stayed." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded 273 BCE colonial reconstitution, for which no attributable demographic decline or process deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated removal route from Paestum." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "Score 4 uses dominant local community continuity as a membership proxy, not a genetic estimate or exact percentage." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state-imposed colonial land and political reconstitution without a documented armed resident-removal operation in the bounded event." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded colonial foundation process." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records Latin colonial institutions alongside a continuing Greek-Lucanian community rather than cultural replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime over continuing residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records a territorial colonial reconstitution rather than ascriptive targeting of Greek or Lucanian residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 1 records close integration inside a differentiated Latin-colony polity while stopping short of claiming equal legal shares for every continuing resident." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 73.9248079021, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.9248079021, "unknown_bound_high": 73.9248079021 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 37.7014844519, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.461899016, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6642873069 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.7919317171, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.7643408248, "unknown_bound_high": 38.2874831091 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.343616451, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 52.343616451 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-ariminum-integrated-colony", "name": "Romans, Latin colonists, and Umbrian or Gallic residents at Ariminum", "start": -268, "end": -268, "date_label": "268 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-directed Latin colonial reconstitution of an existing Umbrian and Gallic settlement on previously conquered ager Gallicus (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Ariminum" ], "victims": [ "Umbrian or Gallic residents and landholders affected by Ariminum's colonial reconstitution" ], "summary": "An existing Umbrian and Gallic settlement in conquered Ager Gallicus was reconstituted as a Latin colony Evidence limit: No source establishes complete resident removal, settler or resident totals, or parcel-level succession at Ariminum", "confidence": "high on the 268 BCE Latin colony, the existing settlement, conquered regional land, and durable colonial reconstitution; low on settler totals, parcel division, household composition, resident legal shares, movement, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: latin.packhum.org", "url": "https://latin.packhum.org/loc/1044/1/13/344-351%2C637-644%2C948-955%2C1219-1226%2C1440-1447%401" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: academic.oup.com", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/61673/chapter-abstract/548510989" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: persee.fr", "url": "https://www.persee.fr/doc/ecelt_0373-1928_1990_num_27_1_1923" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 3: cambridge.org", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/papers-of-the-british-school-at-rome/article/abs/early-colonisation-of-cisalpine-gaul/5F90A1D7A39151153DD0B5CF9AFEA8D6" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "ager_gallicus_existing_settlement_reconstituted_as_integrated_latin_colony", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-ariminum-integrated-colony", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "ager_gallicus_multiphase", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: No source establishes complete resident removal, settler or resident totals, or parcel-level succession at Ariminum" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: No source establishes complete resident removal, settler or resident totals, or parcel-level succession at Ariminum" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: No source establishes complete resident removal, settler or resident totals, or parcel-level succession at Ariminum" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No source establishes complete resident removal, settler or resident totals, or parcel-level succession at Ariminum" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: No source establishes complete resident removal, settler or resident totals, or parcel-level succession at Ariminum" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: No source establishes complete resident removal, settler or resident totals, or parcel-level succession at Ariminum" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: No source establishes complete resident removal, settler or resident totals, or parcel-level succession at Ariminum" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No source establishes complete resident removal, settler or resident totals, or parcel-level succession at Ariminum" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: No source establishes complete resident removal, settler or resident totals, or parcel-level succession at Ariminum" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: No source establishes complete resident removal, settler or resident totals, or parcel-level succession at Ariminum" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records an existing Umbrian or Gallic community continuing inside the successor center without evidence of a separate coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records a local colonial tract and political reconstitution while the immediate resident parcels and retained claims remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records local continuity without a documented dependent-labor regime." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continuing settlement and agrarian use under a new colonial tenure layer rather than a new production system." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 1 records localized land loss constrained by continuity at an existing settlement; it is not a measured survivor percentage." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded 268 BCE foundation; casualties from the earlier Senone conquest are not imported into this row." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated removal route from Ariminum." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state colonial reconstitution on previously conquered land without repeating the earlier armed Senone clearance as a 268 BCE operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded foundation process." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records a Latin colonial institution alongside continuing local settlement rather than region-wide replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime over continuing residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode in 268 BCE." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records location-based land taking rather than an ascriptive rule targeting Umbrians or Gauls as persons." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation in the bounded event." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 keeps the 268 BCE colonial reconstitution inside an already conquered Roman territorial regime; the 284/283 BCE Senone sovereignty taking remains in its separate event." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "Score 2 records the named organized Umbrian or Gallic communities of the occupied regional settlement without claiming a bureaucratic state." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 76.2765550474, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.2765550474, "unknown_bound_high": 76.2765550474 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 37.7014844519, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.461899016, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6642873069 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 45.7639959151, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7200214457, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 32.9510584993, "unknown_bound_high": 60.9489139305 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.343616451, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 52.343616451 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-picentes-paestum", "name": "Romans and Picentes", "start": -268, "end": -268, "date_label": "268 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-directed cross-peninsular population transfer and assigned community (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic" ], "victims": [ "Picentine communities transferred from Adriatic Picenum" ], "summary": "Part of the Adriatic Picentine population transferred to the Gulf of Paestum and organized around Picentia Evidence limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event", "confidence": "high on a bounded Picentine transfer and destination community; low on origin settlements, population share, count, household composition, property outcomes, and return", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/thayer/e/roman/texts/strabo/5d%2A.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: archive-ouverte.unige.ch", "url": "https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige%3A88947" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "forced_long_range_community_transfer", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-picentes-paestum", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "picentine_transfer_and_potentia", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: No safe population count or origin settlement is supplied; Strabo's later notice about dispersal after alliance with Hannibal is not automatically the same event" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "Score 3 records the creation of a durable Picentine destination community while stopping below whole-community score 4 because no sex, age, or household composition survives." }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "Score 4 treats the transferred Picentine population as the incoming stream at Picentia: the state assigned the move rather than households choosing the destination." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded transfer notice, which reports movement but no process deaths; it does not make a claim about the wider conquest." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 2 records a substantial internal transfer from Adriatic Picenum to the Gulf of Paestum within the Roman sphere, without inventing a precise origin route." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies only to the transfer operation, for which the source reports no attributable deaths." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 27.4866553982, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.2085611005, "unknown_bound_high": 41.4109493914 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.2610398758, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.7347920829, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4340433819 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 18.9734026896, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 28.3361930238 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 21.1588163832, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.5221953648, "unknown_bound_high": 30.9832941839 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-brundisium-capture-colony-267-244", "name": "Roman capture and Latin colony at Messapian Brundisium", "start": -267, "end": -244, "date_label": "267–244 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest followed after a long interval by Latin colonial land redistribution within a continuing Messapian port city (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Brundisium" ], "victims": [ "Messapian residents and landholders of Brundisium affected by conquest and colonial redistribution" ], "summary": "Rome took Brundisium during the subjugation of the Messapians and later founded a Latin colony within the former Messapian center; archaeology favors continuity and redistribution rather than mass depopulation Evidence limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census", "confidence": "high on Roman conquest, the later Latin colony, the pre-existing Messapian city, and archaeological continuity with redistribution; low on conquest deaths, settler count, parcels, household composition, resident legal shares, movement, regional population effects, and the causal share of conquest versus transport reorientation", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.04.0064%3Aentry%3Dbrundisium-geo" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: academic.oup.com", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/61673/chapter-abstract/548509188" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: api.pageplace.de", "url": "https://api.pageplace.de/preview/DT0400.9781003860709_A47807039/preview-9781003860709_A47807039.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "conquest_delayed_colonial_redistribution_with_messapian_continuity", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-brundisium-capture-colony-267-244", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The twenty-three-year interval, colonial allotment map, resident legal share, regional settlement decline, and causal effects of conquest versus trade reorientation are not recoverable as one census" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records a continuing Messapian population as part of the successor city's productive base rather than an economy designed to exclude or replace local labor." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records specific colonial redistribution inside the existing city while stopping below majority-territory or comprehensive-extinguishment claims." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records the durable Brundisium colonial-port order, not biological or civic extinction of the Messapian population." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records local continuity without evidence that Messapians were retained as a separate coerced labor category." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 0 records continuity of the existing city and port economy through redistribution rather than a demonstrated replacement production regime." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 1 records localized land loss and regional contraction constrained by archaeological Messapian continuity; it is not a census-derived claim that a measured 70–90 percent remained." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 preserves the twenty-three-year conquest-to-colony interval and does not attribute every intervening regional change to one founding moment." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated Messapian removal route from Brundisium despite secure conquest and redistribution." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records Roman armed conquest of the existing city; it does not convert conquest into a claim of mass resident removal." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records Latin colonial institutions added within a continuing Messapian urban community rather than region-wide cultural replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime over the continuing Messapian population." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or durable return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode; the incoming colonial foundation is measured separately." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records territorial conquest and land redistribution rather than an ascriptive rule targeting Messapians regardless of location or conduct." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 76.2765550474, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.2765550474, "unknown_bound_high": 76.2765550474 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 37.7014844519, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.461899016, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6642873069 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 42.057446536, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7200214457, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2822634568, "unknown_bound_high": 58.280118888 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 31.8046487548, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 64.0183010755 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.9324270057, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.9324270057, "unknown_bound_high": 54.9324270057 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-aesernia-samnite-land", "name": "Rome, Latin colonists, and Samnite communities at Aesernia", "start": -263, "end": -263, "date_label": "263 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-directed ex novo Latin colonial node and territorial allotment on previously conquered Samnite mountain land (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Aesernia" ], "victims": [ "Samnite communities and landholders affected by the Aesernia colonial territory" ], "summary": "Rome founded an ex novo Latin colony in mountainous territory conquered from Samnite communities Evidence limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration", "confidence": "high on the 263 BCE Latin colony, ex novo urban node, named conquered Samnite territory, and durable Roman control; low on affected parcels, immediate prior residents, movement, settler total, household composition, later resident origins, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/thayer/e/roman/texts/velleius_paterculus/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: iris.uniroma1.it", "url": "https://iris.uniroma1.it/handle/11573/1505475" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: api.pageplace.de", "url": "https://api.pageplace.de/preview/DT0400.9781003860709_A47807039/preview-9781003860709_A47807039.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "ex_novo_latin_colony_on_conquered_samnite_mountain_land", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-aesernia-samnite-land", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The evidence does not identify which residents lost which parcels, whether settlement abandonment occurred, or whether later Samnite residents represent continuity, return, or migration" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records a specific colonial territory on conquered Samnite land while parcel-level prior titles and the affected share remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 2 records a mountainous patchwork territory with a new urban node while stopping short of claiming an empty or labor-scarce frontier." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 2 records construction of an ex novo colonial town as a community-scale work, not a reconstructed regional infrastructure system." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued regional agrarian use under a new colonial tenure core; the evidence does not support wholesale economic conversion." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded 263 BCE foundation, for which no attributable demographic decline or process deaths are reported; earlier Samnite warfare is not reassigned to it." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records a state colonial allotment on previously conquered land without a documented 263 BCE armed removal." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded foundation process." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a new Latin colonial urban core inside continuing Samnite mountain territory while resident outcomes remain unresolved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records territorial land taking rather than ascriptive targeting of Samnites as persons." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation in the bounded event." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 keeps the 263 BCE colony inside an already conquered Roman territorial regime instead of counting the earlier Samnite conquest twice." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 2 records the standardized ex novo colonial node and territorial allotment without claiming a surviving cadastre or registry." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.1185732823, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7946887713, "unknown_bound_high": 84.1998570758 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 45.5424445028, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.7972074722, "unknown_bound_high": 55.9995957631 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.1601955894, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.8770789181, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-spoletium-colony-land-allotment-241", "name": "Spoletium colony and land allotment with Umbrian continuity", "start": -241, "end": -241, "date_label": "241 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state colonial allotment at a pre-existing Umbrian center with strong linguistic, cultic, and settlement continuity (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Spoletium" ], "victims": [ "Umbrian landholders affected by assigned colonial land" ], "summary": "The colony occupied an earlier Umbrian settlement; the land-surveyor tradition records assigned land, while language, cult, and settlement evidence make local incorporation more likely than expulsion Evidence limit: The assigned parcels, settler number, legal shares, and exact degree of Umbrian incorporation are unknown; no siege, sack, or expulsion should be inferred", "confidence": "high on the colony, earlier Umbrian center, assigned land, and local continuity; medium on incorporation; low on settler number, parcels, legal shares, household composition, and the exact composition of the successor community", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: discovery.ucl.ac.uk", "url": "https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10100165/1/10055445.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: sabapumbria.cultura.gov.it", "url": "https://sabapumbria.cultura.gov.it/archeologia-e-territorio/archeologia-spoleto/" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: keytoumbria.com", "url": "https://www.keytoumbria.com/Spoleto/Ancient_Spoleto.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_329_241_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_329_241_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "land_allotment_and_integrated_colonial_community", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-spoletium-colony-land-allotment-241", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The assigned parcels, settler number, legal shares, and exact degree of Umbrian incorporation are unknown; no siege, sack, or expulsion should be inferred" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The assigned parcels, settler number, legal shares, and exact degree of Umbrian incorporation are unknown; no siege, sack, or expulsion should be inferred" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The assigned parcels, settler number, legal shares, and exact degree of Umbrian incorporation are unknown; no siege, sack, or expulsion should be inferred" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The assigned parcels, settler number, legal shares, and exact degree of Umbrian incorporation are unknown; no siege, sack, or expulsion should be inferred" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The assigned parcels, settler number, legal shares, and exact degree of Umbrian incorporation are unknown; no siege, sack, or expulsion should be inferred" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The assigned parcels, settler number, legal shares, and exact degree of Umbrian incorporation are unknown; no siege, sack, or expulsion should be inferred" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The assigned parcels, settler number, legal shares, and exact degree of Umbrian incorporation are unknown; no siege, sack, or expulsion should be inferred" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The assigned parcels, settler number, legal shares, and exact degree of Umbrian incorporation are unknown; no siege, sack, or expulsion should be inferred" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records an integrated successor community whose economy and institutions retained Umbrian inhabitants rather than rendering them superfluous." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records local continuity and incorporation rather than capture of Umbrians as a separate coerced workforce." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 0 records linguistic, cultic, and settlement continuity and the absence of a siege, sack, or expulsion; it is not a census-derived resident fraction." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no documented demographic decline or process deaths in the bounded foundation." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no documented resident removal from Spoletium." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "Score 4 records strong local cultural and community continuity and probable Umbrian incorporation as a membership proxy, not a genetic estimate." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative land allotment without a documented armed removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated displacement and positive local continuity." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 1 records incorporated Umbrians within a differentiated Latin-colony polity rather than exile, separate subjecthood, or local extinction." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.7946887713, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7946887713, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7946887713 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.7919317171, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.7643408248, "unknown_bound_high": 38.2874831091 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.343616451, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 52.343616451 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-ager-gallicus-lex-flaminia-232", "name": "Lex Flaminia individual allotments in ager Gallicus", "start": -232, "end": -232, "date_label": "232 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-law distribution creating durable Roman individual tenure in ager Gallicus after the earlier Senone ejection (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Gaius Flaminius and Roman individual allottees" ], "victims": [ "Senone claimants and any immediate users of the ager Gallicus distribution zone" ], "summary": "Polybius links the 232 BCE distribution to territory from which the Senones had earlier been ejected, while other ancient testimony identifies Gaius Flaminius as the law's sponsor; the act created durable Roman individual tenure rather than a new self-governing colony Evidence limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census", "confidence": "high on the 232 BCE law, regional distribution, earlier Senone ejection, and durable individual tenure; low on recipient total, local parcels, immediate prior holders, resident movement in 232 BCE, household composition, and overlap with earlier and later regional phases", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Plb.%202.21" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Varro/de_Re_Rustica/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: storr-best-1912-varro-on-farming.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/storr-best-1912-varro-on-farming.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 4: broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_VIRITANE_PREGRACCHAN_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_VIRITANE_PREGRACCHAN_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_viritane_pregracchan_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_viritane_pregracchan_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "regional_individual_allotment_on_earlier_cleared_senone_land", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-ager-gallicus-lex-flaminia-232", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "ager_gallicus_multiphase", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: No recipient total, local parcel map, immediate prior-holder identity, or new 232 BCE resident-removal route survives; the famous policy notice is not a census" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records individual allottees without a separate self-governing settler polity." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records a regional individual-tenure program in ager Gallicus while the local parcel map and immediate prior users remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 3 records a land-abundant settlement field created by the earlier bounded Senone clearance; it does not treat the wider region as naturally empty or repeat the ejection in 232 BCE." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records regional agrarian reorganization under durable individual tenure rather than total productive transformation." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the 232 BCE allotment operation, which reports no process deaths; earlier Senone killing remains in its own event." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records a legislated land distribution without a new 232 BCE armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the allotment phase, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a named law sponsoring regional individual allotment; it does not imply a contemporaneous removal order." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records Roman agrarian tenure becoming regionally dominant while local settlement composition remains unresolved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records a land-allotment law rather than new ascriptive targeting of Senones in 232 BCE." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation in the 232 BCE phase." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records internal allocation of territory already under Roman sovereignty; the earlier conquest and ejection are deliberately not counted again." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records individual tenure rather than a chartered colony." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.4529613343, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.5952452414, "unknown_bound_high": 92.0004135459 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 55.7572735565, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.0505453878, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2529336787 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.2610398758, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.7347920829, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4340433819 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 57.0604954797, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.9501307513, "unknown_bound_high": 62.4112295705 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-cremona-placentia-twin-colonies", "name": "Romans, Latin colonists, Boii, and Insubres", "start": -218, "end": -190, "date_label": "218–190 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-directed twin Latin colonies on Gallic land, followed by armed resistance and a later joint family reinforcement (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists and later reinforcing families at Cremona and Placentia" ], "victims": [ "Boii and Insubres communities and landholders affected by the two colonial territories" ], "summary": "Rome founded Cremona and Placentia together on Gallic land with about six thousand colonists at each site; Gallic resistance followed and a later six-thousand-family reinforcement sustained the two colonies Evidence limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event", "confidence": "high on the simultaneous 218 BCE foundations, attributed six-thousand-person stream at each site, Gallic resistance, and later joint six-thousand-family reinforcement; low on Boii-versus-Insubres parcel assignment, resident movement, removal share, casualty proportions, initial household composition, and prior ancestry in the successor communities", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: spiritualpilgrim.net", "url": "https://spiritualpilgrim.net/08_Classics-Library/hellenist-roman/polybius/3%20.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: nodictionaries.com", "url": "https://nodictionaries.com/livy/ab-urbe-condita-21/25" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_37.htm" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: catalogo.beniculturali.it", "url": "https://catalogo.beniculturali.it/detail/ibc/ArchaeologicalProperty/261065" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "linked_gallic_frontier_colonies_resistance_and_family_reinforcement", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-cremona-placentia-twin-colonies", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "cremona_placentia_linked", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The evidence does not assign each affected resident or parcel to Boii versus Insubres, prove total removal, or support treating the 190 reinforcement as a fresh land-taking event" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records a systematic two-node colonial land program of substantial scale while leaving the Boii-versus-Insubres parcels and resident retention unresolved." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 2 records a Gallic frontier landscape with occupied cores and appropriable colonial tracts, not an empty or demonstrably labor-scarce zone." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 2 records two durable colonial towns as community-scale works rather than a reconstructed region-wide infrastructure network." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "Score 3 uses the explicit later reinforcement by six thousand families as evidence of family-predominant settlement while not projecting that composition onto every 218 BCE arrival." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "Score 3 records two large state-directed pulses across twenty-eight years rather than one explosive arrival or a century-long drift." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records planned colonial reorganization of Gallic land around two urban nodes while the prior production system remains only partly recoverable." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 2 uses the attributed twelve thousand initial colonists and later six-thousand-family reinforcement only to place the larger directly moved stream in the 10,000–100,000 bin; it is not a count of displaced Gauls." }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "Score 4 records the source's explicit family-unit reinforcement; it does not assert a census-quality sex ratio for the first foundation cohort." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 2 preserves the 218–190 BCE foundation, resistance, recovery, and reinforcement sequence as a generational process." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records armed establishment and Gallic resistance around the colonial project without converting warfare into an undocumented total resident expulsion." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a simultaneous state commission with specified settlement bodies and a later centrally organized reinforcement; it does not imply a population-removal order." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records two durable Latin colonial cores in Gallic territory while the surrounding resident pattern and continuity remain unresolved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records territorial conquest and resistance-based coercion rather than ascriptive targeting of all Boii or Insubres persons." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 2 records standardized linked colonial foundations without claiming a surviving comprehensive cadastre." }, { "dimension": "ssi_boundary_hardening", "note": "Score 2 records two fortified internal frontier nodes with differentiated rights, not a sealed ethnic or interstate boundary." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.6991631797, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.0178324934, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4230007978 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 48.7671197779, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4026680799, "unknown_bound_high": 58.6050563708 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 77.2751277829, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6347085099, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 49.0471812085, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.337590085, "unknown_bound_high": 94.662409915 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.0684213127, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 76.8912397299 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 68.4547999568, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.9245796877, "unknown_bound_high": 72.3856785068 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-capua-punishment-confiscation-dispersal-211-210", "name": "Capuan punishment, confiscation, civic dismantling, and dispersal", "start": -211, "end": -210, "date_label": "211–210 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state execution, captive sale, forced dispersal, civic dismantling, and public-land confiscation (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman Senate, magistrates, and army" ], "victims": [ "Capuans and allied Campanian communities punished after defection" ], "summary": "Livy reports executions and deaths in custody, sale of much of the remaining Campanian population, confiscation of Capuan territory and buildings as Roman public property, selective retention of useful residents, and later decrees dispersing Capuans and allied communities to restricted locations Evidence limit: Livy's narrative does not support a reliable total population denominator or a securely counted incoming Roman settler body in 211-210 BCE; legal dispositions differ by status and place", "confidence": "high on executions, sale, differentiated dispersal decrees, civic dismantling, and public-property confiscation; low on a population denominator, complete destination distribution, mortality share, and later return", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=26&fromdoc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.02.0158" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: cambridge.org", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-ancient-history/capua-after-211-bc/" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_VIRITANE_PREGRACCHAN_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_VIRITANE_PREGRACCHAN_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_viritane_pregracchan_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_viritane_pregracchan_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "civic_dismantling_confiscation_and_dispersal_without_settlers", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-capua-punishment-confiscation-dispersal-211-210", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "capua_multiphase", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Livy's narrative does not support a reliable total population denominator or a securely counted incoming Roman settler body in 211-210 BCE; legal dispositions differ by status and place" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Livy's narrative does not support a reliable total population denominator or a securely counted incoming Roman settler body in 211-210 BCE; legal dispositions differ by status and place" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Livy's narrative does not support a reliable total population denominator or a securely counted incoming Roman settler body in 211-210 BCE; legal dispositions differ by status and place" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Livy's narrative does not support a reliable total population denominator or a securely counted incoming Roman settler body in 211-210 BCE; legal dispositions differ by status and place" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: Livy's narrative does not support a reliable total population denominator or a securely counted incoming Roman settler body in 211-210 BCE; legal dispositions differ by status and place" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Livy's narrative does not support a reliable total population denominator or a securely counted incoming Roman settler body in 211-210 BCE; legal dispositions differ by status and place" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records Rome's selective retention of useful residents while confiscating the civic territory; the successor public-land regime continued to need Capuan labor." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 4 records the comprehensive conversion of Capuan territory and buildings into Roman public property, not a claim that every Campanian tract changed hands." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 3 records retained Capuan residents as the principal workforce on a territory whose title and political control had passed to Rome." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 3 records execution, sale, and broad dispersal alongside explicit retention of a useful resident remnant; no source denominator is treated as a census." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 2 records decree-assigned dispersal to restricted locations within the Roman sphere rather than one invented destination." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 3 records differentiated treatment and selected retention by status or utility, while Capuan membership otherwise drove punishment." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legal_instrumentation_depth", "note": "Score 4 records the linked decrees altering both Capuan property and the legal-political status and residence of named population categories." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 4 records civic dismantling plus status-differentiated dispersal and assigned residence, not merely a land survey." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.4353889176, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.4353889176, "unknown_bound_high": 93.4353889176 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 62.9298895279, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9259243529, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.2683172379, "unknown_bound_high": 65.67588195 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 35.9829711761, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.9829711761, "unknown_bound_high": 35.9829711761 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.9552516039, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.6892547556, "unknown_bound_high": 79.926568931 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 30.759186885, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8621355989, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.5185900064, "unknown_bound_high": 40.3050301178 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-scipio-veteran-allotments-samnium-apulia-201-200", "name": "Scipio's veteran allotments in Samnium and Apulia", "start": -201, "end": -200, "date_label": "201–200 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "one state commission measuring public land in Samnium and Apulia and assigning veterans two iugera per year of service (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Scipio's veterans and the ten-man land commission" ], "victims": [ "Immediate prior users and claimants of state-domain parcels measured in Samnium and Apulia" ], "summary": "Livy records ten commissioners measuring state-domain land in Samnium and Apulia and allotting two iugera for every year served in Spain or Africa to Scipio's veterans Evidence limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE", "confidence": "high on one commission, two named regions, state-domain measurement, and service-based formula; low on complete veteran total, local nodes, immediate prior holders, resident movement, household composition, population proportions, and which parcels were newly confiscated", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/livy/HOR_31.htm" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: cambridge.org", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/consul-at-rome/colonization-and-distribution-of-land/43C42E7824645FF663A26E76F6942007" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_VIRITANE_PREGRACCHAN_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_VIRITANE_PREGRACCHAN_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_viritane_pregracchan_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_viritane_pregracchan_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "two_region_service_formula_veteran_land_assignment", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-scipio-veteran-allotments-samnium-apulia-201-200", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "apulian_multiphase_allotment", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "The evidence does not support a defensible event-specific persistence judgment rather than a generic inference from later Roman rule. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: No complete veteran recipient total, local allotment nodes, parcel-level prior holders, or contemporary resident movement survives; not every parcel need have been newly confiscated in 200 BCE" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records individual veteran allottees without a separate settler-run polity." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records measured assignment of specific public-land parcels while acknowledging that not every tract was newly confiscated in 201–200 BCE." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records a ten-man commission, land measurement, and service-based parcel formula without claiming a surviving comprehensive registry." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued agrarian use under veteran title rather than a demonstrated new production regime." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded land-assignment program, for which no process deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state measurement and assignment of public land without a documented contemporary resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the allotment process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a named commission and explicit service formula directing settlement across two regions; it does not imply a removal order." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and tenure-based assignment rather than ascriptive targeting of Samnite or Apulian residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records internal allocation of land already classified as Roman state domain rather than a new sovereignty transfer in 201–200 BCE." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records individual veteran holdings rather than a corporate colony." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.4275831106, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.8917509509, "unknown_bound_high": 87.2969192553 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.1601955894, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.8770789181, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 44.2495396954, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6742324678, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 29.8344763458, "unknown_bound_high": 62.4112295705 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-campanian-coastal-colonies-197-194", "name": "Campanian coastal-colony program at Volturnum, Liternum, Puteoli, and Salernum", "start": -197, "end": -194, "date_label": "197–194 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "one state commission dividing former Campanian land for four small coastal colonial nodes (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman citizen colonists at Volturnum, Liternum, Puteoli, and Salernum" ], "victims": [ "Campanian landholders and residents affected by the four coastal allotments" ], "summary": "Livy reports three hundred colonists each at Puteoli, Volturnum, and Liternum and says Salernum and Buxentum were founded under similar terms; the divided land of the four Campanian nodes had formerly belonged to Campanians Evidence limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied", "confidence": "high on one commission, four nodes, the former Campanian source-land statement, and the attributed three-hundred-person cohorts; low on exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares or movement, household composition, and local population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/disppref?default.scheme=book%3Achapter%2A&default.type=book&url=%2Fhopper%2Ftext%3Fdoc%3DPerseus%3Atext%3A1999.02.0144%3Abook%3D34" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: cris.unibo.it", "url": "https://cris.unibo.it/bitstream/11585/855041/5/2.DHA_23_Lepore_Silani.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "four_node_maritime_colony_program_on_former_campanian_land", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-campanian-coastal-colonies-197-194", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "campanian_coastal_program", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The exact parcels, prior holders, resident legal shares, and resident movement are unknown; the wording does not prove that all four sites were newly occupied or emptied" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records specific tracts divided for four coastal colonies while stopping below a majority-territory score because the exact parcels and Campanian holders are unknown." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 1 combines the four attributed three-hundred-person incoming cohorts as a directly moved stream of about 1,200; it is not a resident-displacement count or a regional census." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded 197–194 BCE allotment program, which reports no process deaths; prior conquest mortality is not imported into this event." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records one tightly linked three-year administrative and settlement program rather than four independent events." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state division of land formerly belonging to Campanians without a documented armed resident-removal operation in this event window." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded allotment program, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and location-based land taking rather than ascriptive targeting of Campanians as persons." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no removal or killing operation and therefore no documented sex-selective targeting of prior residents." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.1185732823, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7946887713, "unknown_bound_high": 84.1998570758 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-buxentum-pyxus-colony-194-186", "name": "Buxentum colony at Greek Pyxus and later supplementation", "start": -194, "end": -186, "date_label": "194–186 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state colonial foundation at Greek Pyxus followed by a supplementary settler phase and durable land reorganization (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman citizen colonists and later supplementary settlers at Buxentum" ], "victims": [ "Greek residents and landholders of Pyxus affected by the colonial foundation" ], "summary": "A Roman colony was planted at Greek Pyxus in 194 BCE; the 186 BCE supplementary colonists and archaeological transformation show an implemented and persistent land reorganization rather than a merely nominal failed foundation Evidence limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event", "confidence": "high on the 194 BCE foundation, 186 BCE supplement, existing Greek site, and implemented durable transformation; low on resident movement, initial and supplementary settler totals, parcels, prior holders, household composition, local enrollment, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/disppref?default.scheme=book%3Achapter%2A&default.type=book&url=%2Fhopper%2Ftext%3Fdoc%3DPerseus%3Atext%3A1999.02.0144%3Abook%3D34" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: latin.packhum.org", "url": "https://latin.packhum.org/loc/914/1/1464/79-82%2C1452-1455%401" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: academic.oup.com", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/61673/chapter-abstract/548510756" }, { "title": "Primary source 4: otium.unipg.it", "url": "https://www.otium.unipg.it/otium/article/view/94" }, { "title": "Primary source 5: campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "existing_greek_site_colony_with_later_replenishment", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-buxentum-pyxus-colony-194-186", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: No source establishes that Pyxus's residents were expelled, identifies individual prior holders, or maps the first colonial parcels; replenishment is evidence of continuity of the project, not a second event" }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records the implemented and durable Buxentum land-and-settlement order confirmed by supplementation and archaeology, not replacement of every Pyxuntine resident." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records archaeological transformation and reorganization of an existing settled site while stopping below a predominantly new production regime." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded foundation and supplementation phases, for which no process deaths or resident decline through death are reported." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 preserves the eight-year foundation-to-supplement sequence rather than turning the 186 BCE replenishment into a separate event." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records imposed state settlement and land reorganization without a documented armed removal of Pyxus's residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded colonial process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records site- and land-based imposition rather than an ascriptive rule against Greek residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 78.9838568679, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.9248079021, "unknown_bound_high": 80.3299762066 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 37.7014844519, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.461899016, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6642873069 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0063851275, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3312049575 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 62.7520179768, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.9324270057, "unknown_bound_high": 67.3935258248 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-croton-greek-city-colony-194", "name": "Roman colony within Greek Croton", "start": -194, "end": -194, "date_label": "194 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state colonial settlement and political-property reconstitution within a still-inhabited Greek city (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman citizen colonists at Croton" ], "victims": [ "Greek residents and landholders of Croton affected by the imposed colonial community" ], "summary": "Livy explicitly says that Greeks still held Croton when the Roman colonial body entered, establishing newcomer settlement and political-property reconstitution within an existing community Evidence limit: The source does not identify confiscated parcels, expelled residents, local enrollment, or the balance between colonists and Greeks; continued Greek possession argues against an empty-site or wholesale-replacement account", "confidence": "high on the incoming colony and explicit Greek possession at the time of entry; medium on imposed political-property reconstitution; low on parcels, settler count, local enrollment, resident legal shares, household composition, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/disppref?default.scheme=book%3Achapter%2A&default.type=book&url=%2Fhopper%2Ftext%3Fdoc%3DPerseus%3Atext%3A1999.02.0144%3Abook%3D34" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: academic.oup.com", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/61673/chapter-abstract/548725116" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "imposed_colony_with_explicit_greek_coresidence", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-croton-greek-city-colony-194", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The source does not identify confiscated parcels, expelled residents, local enrollment, or the balance between colonists and Greeks; continued Greek possession argues against an empty-site or wholesale-replacement account" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The source does not identify confiscated parcels, expelled residents, local enrollment, or the balance between colonists and Greeks; continued Greek possession argues against an empty-site or wholesale-replacement account" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The source does not identify confiscated parcels, expelled residents, local enrollment, or the balance between colonists and Greeks; continued Greek possession argues against an empty-site or wholesale-replacement account" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The source does not identify confiscated parcels, expelled residents, local enrollment, or the balance between colonists and Greeks; continued Greek possession argues against an empty-site or wholesale-replacement account" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The source does not identify confiscated parcels, expelled residents, local enrollment, or the balance between colonists and Greeks; continued Greek possession argues against an empty-site or wholesale-replacement account" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The source does not identify confiscated parcels, expelled residents, local enrollment, or the balance between colonists and Greeks; continued Greek possession argues against an empty-site or wholesale-replacement account" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The source does not identify confiscated parcels, expelled residents, local enrollment, or the balance between colonists and Greeks; continued Greek possession argues against an empty-site or wholesale-replacement account" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The source does not identify confiscated parcels, expelled residents, local enrollment, or the balance between colonists and Greeks; continued Greek possession argues against an empty-site or wholesale-replacement account" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The source does not identify confiscated parcels, expelled residents, local enrollment, or the balance between colonists and Greeks; continued Greek possession argues against an empty-site or wholesale-replacement account" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The source does not identify confiscated parcels, expelled residents, local enrollment, or the balance between colonists and Greeks; continued Greek possession argues against an empty-site or wholesale-replacement account" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records the explicitly continuing Greek community as part of the successor city's productive base rather than an economy designed to exclude local residents." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 1 records imposed colonial possession without upgrading a thin legal-spatial record into comprehensive or parcel-level Greek expropriation." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records Greek co-residence without evidence that Greeks became a separate coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 0 records continuation of the inhabited Greek city through colonial reconstitution rather than a demonstrated new production regime." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 0 records Livy's explicit statement that Greeks still held Croton when the colonists entered and no documented expulsion; it is not a census of every resident afterward." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no documented resident decline or process deaths in the bounded colonial entry." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated Greek removal route from Croton." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records imposed state settlement and political-property reconstitution without a documented armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records Roman colonial institutions alongside a continuing Greek city, not region-wide cultural replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime over the continuing Greek community." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete Greek resident-displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records site- and property-based imposition rather than ascriptive targeting of Greek residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 73.9248079021, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.9248079021, "unknown_bound_high": 73.9248079021 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 22.5133446018, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1902447541, "unknown_bound_high": 37.3926330449 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 39.9492834513, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7200214457, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 28.7643408248, "unknown_bound_high": 56.762196256 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.343616451, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 52.343616451 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-tempsa-bruttian-land-colony-194", "name": "Tempsa colony on land taken from Bruttii", "start": -194, "end": -194, "date_label": "194 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state colonial allotment on territory explicitly taken from Bruttii, with the earlier Greek-Bruttian turnover kept outside the event (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman citizen colonists at Tempsa" ], "victims": [ "Bruttian landholders and residents affected by the Tempsa colonial tract" ], "summary": "Livy says the territory for the colony at Tempsa had been taken from the Bruttii, who had earlier expelled the Greeks; the colonial land transfer therefore passes even though resident movement in 194 BCE is not recorded Evidence limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment", "confidence": "high on the Roman colony and named Bruttian source land; low on particular parcels and holders, resident movement, settler total, household composition, legal shares, population proportions, and the spatial relation to the earlier Greek expulsion", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/disppref?default.scheme=book%3Achapter%2A&default.type=book&url=%2Fhopper%2Ftext%3Fdoc%3DPerseus%3Atext%3A1999.02.0144%3Abook%3D34" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: treccani.it", "url": "https://www.treccani.it/enciclopedia/temsa_%28Enciclopedia-Italiana%29/" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "named_bruttian_land_taking_and_colonial_allotment", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-tempsa-bruttian-land-colony-194", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The record does not identify which Bruttians occupied particular parcels in 194 BCE, whether anyone moved at foundation, or how the earlier Greek expulsion related spatially to the Roman allotment" }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 1 records juridical land transfer from the named Bruttian tenure layer; it does not import the earlier Bruttian expulsion of Greeks as a second Roman transfer mode." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records the specific colonial territory Livy says was taken from Bruttii without extending that taking to all Bruttian land or claiming every prior holder was removed." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded 194 BCE Roman foundation, which reports no process deaths; earlier Greek-Bruttian violence remains contextual." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative colonial land taking without a documented 194 BCE armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the Roman foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records a taking of a named tract rather than ascriptive targeting of Bruttians as persons." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented Roman killing or removal operation against prior residents in this event." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 78.9838568679, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.9248079021, "unknown_bound_high": 80.3299762066 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 37.7014844519, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.461899016, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6642873069 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-copia-thurii-land-allotment-193", "name": "Copia colony and land division at Thurii", "start": -193, "end": -193, "date_label": "193 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state placement of a large colonial body through twenty- and forty-iuger allotments with one third of Thurian territory reserved for later settlers (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Copia" ], "victims": [ "Thurian residents and landholders affected by the colonial redivision" ], "summary": "Livy reports three thousand infantry and three hundred cavalry colonists; allotments were twenty and forty iugera, while one third of the tract was reserved for later colonists, demonstrating a large implemented redivision of Thurian territory Evidence limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement", "confidence": "high on the attributed 3,300-person colonial body, allotment sizes, and reserved third; low on total tract size, prior holders, Thurian colonial shares, resident movement, household composition, and local population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: latin.packhum.org", "url": "https://latin.packhum.org/loc/914/1/1234/931-940" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: cris.unibo.it", "url": "https://cris.unibo.it/bitstream/11585/855041/5/2.DHA_23_Lepore_Silani.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "large_formulaic_land_redivision_with_reserved_tract", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-copia-thurii-land-allotment-193", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The source does not quantify the total tract, identify each prior holder, show whether Thurians received colonial shares, or establish forced resident movement" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records a systematic redivision with large formulaic lots and one third of the tract reserved, while not claiming that every Thurian holding was extinguished." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records re-planning of an existing agrarian territory through large differentiated allotments and a reserved tract rather than total productive replacement." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 1 uses Livy's attributed 3,300 incoming colonists only as the larger directly moved stream's 1,000–10,000 bin; it is not a displaced-resident count or local census." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded land-division and settlement operation, for which no process deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative land redivision and state settlement without a documented armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a large colonial land core within Thurian territory while resident treatment and participation remain unresolved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel-based redivision rather than ascriptive targeting of Thurians." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.6058841704, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.442941626, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8481099305 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 55.7572735565, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.0505453878, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2529336787 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-vibo-valentia-bruttian-land-colony-192", "name": "Vibo Valentia colony on Bruttian-held Hipponian land", "start": -192, "end": -192, "date_label": "192 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state colonial redivision of Bruttian-held and formerly Greek land through large formulaic allotments alongside local continuity (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Vibo Valentia" ], "victims": [ "Bruttian and Greek residents and landholders affected by the Vibo Valentia allotments" ], "summary": "Livy reports three thousand seven hundred infantry and three hundred cavalry colonists with fifteen- and thirty-iuger allotments; the land had most recently belonged to Bruttii, who had taken it from Greeks, while archaeology indicates continued Greek and Bruttian presence Evidence limit: The sequence from Greek to Bruttian to Roman control is not a parcel-level chain of title, and the sources do not support total expulsion or demographic replacement in 192 BCE", "confidence": "high on the attributed 4,000-person colonial body, fifteen- and thirty-iuger lots, named Bruttian tenure layer, and archaeological Greek and Bruttian continuity; low on parcel succession, household composition, resident movement, legal shares, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: dokumen.pub", "url": "https://dokumen.pub/la-calabria-dalla-tarda-antichita-al-medioevo-ricostruzione-del-paesaggio-rurale-dellaltopiano-del-poro-vibo-valentia-9781407357799-9781407357805.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: sabap-rc.cultura.gov.it", "url": "https://sabap-rc.cultura.gov.it/?page_id=232" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "large_formulaic_colony_with_greek_and_bruttian_continuity", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-vibo-valentia-bruttian-land-colony-192", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The sequence from Greek to Bruttian to Roman control is not a parcel-level chain of title, and the sources do not support total expulsion or demographic replacement in 192 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The sequence from Greek to Bruttian to Roman control is not a parcel-level chain of title, and the sources do not support total expulsion or demographic replacement in 192 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The sequence from Greek to Bruttian to Roman control is not a parcel-level chain of title, and the sources do not support total expulsion or demographic replacement in 192 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The sequence from Greek to Bruttian to Roman control is not a parcel-level chain of title, and the sources do not support total expulsion or demographic replacement in 192 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The sequence from Greek to Bruttian to Roman control is not a parcel-level chain of title, and the sources do not support total expulsion or demographic replacement in 192 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The sequence from Greek to Bruttian to Roman control is not a parcel-level chain of title, and the sources do not support total expulsion or demographic replacement in 192 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The sequence from Greek to Bruttian to Roman control is not a parcel-level chain of title, and the sources do not support total expulsion or demographic replacement in 192 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The sequence from Greek to Bruttian to Roman control is not a parcel-level chain of title, and the sources do not support total expulsion or demographic replacement in 192 BCE" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The sequence from Greek to Bruttian to Roman control is not a parcel-level chain of title, and the sources do not support total expulsion or demographic replacement in 192 BCE" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records continuing Greek and Bruttian residents as part of the successor territory's productive base rather than an economy designed to exclude local labor." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records a large formulaic colonial redivision while preserving uncertainty about each Greek-to-Bruttian-to-Roman parcel succession." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records local continuity without evidence that Greeks or Bruttii were retained as a separate coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records re-planning of an existing agrarian territory through large differentiated lots while preserving Greek and Bruttian settlement continuity." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 1 records localized land loss constrained by archaeological Greek and Bruttian continuity; it is not a census-derived resident percentage." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 1 uses Livy's attributed 4,000 incoming colonists only as the larger directly moved stream's 1,000–10,000 bin; it is not a resident-displacement count or local census." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded 192 BCE allotment operation, for which no process deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated Greek or Bruttian removal route from Vibo Valentia." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative colonial redivision without a documented 192 BCE armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records Latin colonial institutions alongside visible Greek and Bruttian continuity rather than region-wide cultural replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime over continuing Greek or Bruttian residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and location-based land transfer rather than ascriptive targeting of Greek or Bruttian residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 75.442941626, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.442941626, "unknown_bound_high": 75.442941626 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 55.7572735565, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.0505453878, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2529336787 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 45.7639959151, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7200214457, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 32.9510584993, "unknown_bound_high": 60.9489139305 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.343616451, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 52.343616451 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-bononia-boii-land", "name": "Romans, Latin colonists, and Boii at Bononia", "start": -191, "end": -189, "date_label": "191–189 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest and near-half territorial confiscation followed by a 3,000-person Latin colony with ranked allotments (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Latin colonists at Bononia" ], "victims": [ "Boii communities and landholders affected by territorial confiscation and colonial allotment" ], "summary": "After Boii surrender Rome took nearly half their territory and founded Bononia with three thousand Latin colonists and ranked land allotments Evidence limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments", "confidence": "high on Boii surrender, the attributed near-half territorial taking, the 3,000-person colony, and ranked allotments; low on resident movement, affected-household share, casualty proportions, household composition, local continuity, and prior ancestry in the successor community", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/E-Books/misc/Livy/HOR_36.htm" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_37.htm" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: catalogo.cultura.gov.it", "url": "https://catalogo.cultura.gov.it/detail/ibc/ArchaeologicalProperty/259222" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "boii_surrender_near_half_territory_confiscation_and_ranked_latin_allotments", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-bononia-boii-land", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The battle totals are source claims rather than census data; neither the half-territory clause nor the foundation notice proves that all Boii residents were expelled from the colonial allotments" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records the attributed confiscation of nearly half the Boii territory through a systematic colonial allotment while stopping below comprehensive extinguishment." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 2 records a broad Gallic agrarian territory with an established political population and substantial appropriable tracts, not an empty frontier." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records ranked individual allotments within the colony without claiming comprehensive adjudication of every Boii title." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records large-scale redivision of an existing agrarian territory around a colonial center rather than a wholly new economy." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 1 uses the attributed three thousand incoming colonists only as the larger directly moved stream's 1,000–10,000 bin; it is not a Boii displacement count." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the surrender-to-colony sequence within roughly two years." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records armed conquest and coerced territorial surrender without turning Livy's campaign figures into a population-clearance claim." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a deliberate state colony with a specified incoming body and ranked allotments; it does not imply a removal order against all Boii residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a Latin colonial core on a large confiscated tract while continuing or displaced Boii residence remains unresolved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records territorial conquest and surrender rather than an ascriptive rule targeting every Boii person." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records the dedicated colonial allotment and ranked parcel formula rather than generic conquest title alone." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legal_instrumentation_depth", "note": "Score 3 records parcel-level ranked allotments while leaving prior-title adjudication unknown." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 2 records standardized colonial parcels without claiming a complete cadastre or resident registry." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.6991631797, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.0178324934, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4230007978 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 55.7572735565, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.0505453878, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2529336787 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.1601955894, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.8770789181, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.0684213127, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 76.8912397299 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-friniates-lowland-transfer", "name": "Romans and Ligurian Friniates", "start": -187, "end": -187, "date_label": "187 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-compelled internal relocation and source-land military occupation (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Marcus Aemilius and the Roman army" ], "victims": [ "Ligurian Friniates and other Ligurian communities moved from hills to plains" ], "summary": "Friniates and other Ligurian groups disarmed and transferred from hills to plains by Marcus Aemilius Evidence limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population", "confidence": "high on a bounded compelled hill-to-plain relocation; medium on its security purpose; low on population share, precise destinations, household composition, tenure, return, and later status", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: philipharland.com", "url": "https://www.philipharland.com/Courses/Readings/5025/Livy%2039.1-19%20Bacchanalia%20with%20Latin%20%28Sage%201919%29.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: cambridge.org", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-roman-studies/article/connectivity-and-disconnectivity-in-the-roman-empire/712C95A9B097B44CA076473E08577C4D" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "forced_internal_relocation_without_successor_settlers", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-friniates-lowland-transfer", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "ligurian_apuan_boundaries", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "The evidence does not establish household composition, return behavior, or the degree of self-reproducing permanent settlement. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "The evidence does not support a defensible event-specific persistence judgment rather than a generic inference from later Roman rule. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "The bounded evidence does not establish whether land or labor was the binding factor when the destination economy was organized. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "hdem_destination_saturation", "note": "The source set does not permit a reliable onset-density or political-saturation judgment for the bounded zone. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Livy supplies neither a count nor a precise destination and does not identify an incoming population" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "Score 4 treats the relocated Friniate stream itself as the incoming population at the assigned lowland destination: the move was ordered after disarmament rather than chosen by households." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 1 records a source-bounded movement from nearby hills into plains; the exact endpoint is unknown, but the text supports short-range movement within the contiguous homeland region." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies only to the bounded relocation operation, for which no process deaths are reported; it does not deny deaths in the wider Ligurian war." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies only to this relocation notice, which reports disarmament and movement but no deaths caused by the transfer." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 22.5133446018, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1902447541, "unknown_bound_high": 37.3926330449 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 22.6120958478, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.9992215637, "unknown_bound_high": 31.5544276874 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 44.2495396954, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6742324678, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 29.8344763458, "unknown_bound_high": 62.4112295705 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-transalpine-gauls-aquileia", "name": "Rome and Transalpine Gallic settlers near Aquileia", "start": -186, "end": -181, "date_label": "186–181 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-compelled evacuation of recent settlers followed by a durable Latin colony (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman commissioners and Latin colonists at Aquileia" ], "victims": [ "A recently arrived Transalpine Gallic settlement compelled to return beyond the Alps" ], "summary": "Rome compelled a recently arrived Gallic group to evacuate its town and territory and return beyond the Alps, then founded the Latin colony of Aquileia in the same frontier region Evidence limit: The removed group were recent unsanctioned settlers who said the land appeared uninhabited and uncultivated; the source does not prove removal of a longstanding Indigenous population or exact parcel continuity with the Roman colony", "confidence": "high on the evacuation order and Aquileia foundation; medium on the regional successor relationship; low on exact parcel continuity, the removed count, household composition, and any earlier Indigenous land use", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/E-Books/misc/Livy/HOR_39.htm" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: academic.oup.com", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/61673/chapter-abstract/548549122" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: livius.org", "url": "https://www.livius.org/articles/place/aquileia" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "expulsion_of_recent_settlers_and_successor_colony", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-transalpine-gauls-aquileia", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "aquileia_removal_successor", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The removed group were recent unsanctioned settlers who said the land appeared uninhabited and uncultivated; the source does not prove removal of a longstanding Indigenous population or exact parcel continuity with the Roman colony" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The removed group were recent unsanctioned settlers who said the land appeared uninhabited and uncultivated; the source does not prove removal of a longstanding Indigenous population or exact parcel continuity with the Roman colony" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The removed group were recent unsanctioned settlers who said the land appeared uninhabited and uncultivated; the source does not prove removal of a longstanding Indigenous population or exact parcel continuity with the Roman colony" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The removed group were recent unsanctioned settlers who said the land appeared uninhabited and uncultivated; the source does not prove removal of a longstanding Indigenous population or exact parcel continuity with the Roman colony" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The removed group were recent unsanctioned settlers who said the land appeared uninhabited and uncultivated; the source does not prove removal of a longstanding Indigenous population or exact parcel continuity with the Roman colony" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The removed group were recent unsanctioned settlers who said the land appeared uninhabited and uncultivated; the source does not prove removal of a longstanding Indigenous population or exact parcel continuity with the Roman colony" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The removed group were recent unsanctioned settlers who said the land appeared uninhabited and uncultivated; the source does not prove removal of a longstanding Indigenous population or exact parcel continuity with the Roman colony" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The removed group were recent unsanctioned settlers who said the land appeared uninhabited and uncultivated; the source does not prove removal of a longstanding Indigenous population or exact parcel continuity with the Roman colony" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The removed group were recent unsanctioned settlers who said the land appeared uninhabited and uncultivated; the source does not prove removal of a longstanding Indigenous population or exact parcel continuity with the Roman colony" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "Score 3 records Aquileia's durable landholding colonial community while stopping below whole-family score 4 because the 3,000 colonists are not an enumerated household stream." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 4 records the source group's claim that the frontier tract appeared uninhabited and uncultivated, tempered by the review's warning that this does not prove a wider Indigenous vacuum." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 3 records conversion of the reported uncultivated settlement tract into a planned colonial town and agrarian territory; it does not extend beyond the bounded regional link." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 4 concerns the recently arrived Gallic settlement ordered to evacuate, not a claim that all Indigenous people of the Aquileian region were removed." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records an ordered evacuation with no process deaths reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the evacuation itself, which the source distinguishes from a massacre." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 reflects targeting based on unauthorized occupation of the tract rather than an inescapable descent category." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records removal of the settlement as a community with no sex-selective rule reported." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.8217087217, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.8217087217, "unknown_bound_high": 87.8217087217 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 56.767889201, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.8670986921, "unknown_bound_high": 65.069486983 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 76.3618841622, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.5925052477, "unknown_bound_high": 89.2917565467 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 92.7813781013, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7495305509, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 69.5424774461, "unknown_bound_high": 94.5894223512 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 16.7809869001, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 16.7809869001 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 67.3935258248, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.3935258248, "unknown_bound_high": 67.3935258248 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-pisaurum-ager-gallicus-colony-184", "name": "Pisaurum colony and allotments in ager Gallicus", "start": -184, "end": -184, "date_label": "184 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state citizen-colony allotment within conquered ager Gallicus, with earlier regional land division kept for overlap sensitivity (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman citizen colonists at Pisaurum" ], "victims": [ "Immediate prior users of the Pisaurum colonial tract within ager Gallicus" ], "summary": "Livy reports a citizen colony at Pisaurum in ager Gallicus with six iugera allotted to each colonist, establishing new settler tenure in a conquered land regime Evidence limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation", "confidence": "high on the 184 BCE colony, six-iuger allotments, and conquered regional land regime; low on immediate prior users, resident movement, settler count, household composition, population proportions, and the local share already transformed by the 232 BCE viritane distribution", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: latin.packhum.org", "url": "https://latin.packhum.org/loc/914/1/1485/1761-1768" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: cris.unibo.it", "url": "https://cris.unibo.it/bitstream/11585/855041/5/2.DHA_23_Lepore_Silani.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: ejournals.eu", "url": "https://ejournals.eu/en/journal_article_files/full_text/018eced3-936a-734d-a97e-cbaffba8d8f2/download" }, { "title": "Primary source 4: campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "local_ager_gallicus_colony_allotment_with_regional_overlap", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-pisaurum-ager-gallicus-colony-184", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "ager_gallicus_multiphase", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "The bounded evidence does not establish whether land or labor was the binding factor when the destination economy was organized. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The source does not name the immediate prior users of the colonial parcels or show resident movement; the relation to the 232 BCE viritane distribution must be tested without double-counting the same regional land transformation" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records the specific Pisaurum colonial tract and formulaic settler lots while leaving immediate prior users and the share already transformed in 232 BCE unresolved." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records six-iuger parcel allotments without claiming comprehensive adjudication of earlier Gallic or later Roman claims." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continuation of agrarian use under new smallholder tenure rather than a demonstrated new production system." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded 184 BCE allotment operation, for which no process deaths are reported; earlier conquest is not imported into this row." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative allotment in a conquered land regime without a documented 184 BCE armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and location-based land taking rather than ascriptive targeting of a named resident people." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.6058841704, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.442941626, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8481099305 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 71.7235995538, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3786989604, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 89.2917565467 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-potentia-picene-land-colony-184", "name": "Potentia colony and rural reorganization in Picenum", "start": -184, "end": -184, "date_label": "184 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state citizen-colony allotment and rural-landscape reorganization over positions previously used by Indigenous farmers (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman citizen colonists at Potentia" ], "victims": [ "Picene and other Indigenous farmers and landholders affected by the Potentia colonial countryside" ], "summary": "Livy reports six-iuger allotments to colonists at Potentia; landscape archaeology indicates that the colonial countryside reorganized earlier settlement and that Roman farms occupied positions previously used by Indigenous farmers Evidence limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review", "confidence": "high on six-iuger allotments and archaeological rural reorganization over earlier Indigenous farm positions; low on named households, resident movement, settler count, household composition, population proportions, and the spatial overlap with the earlier Picentine conquest-transfer event", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: latin.packhum.org", "url": "https://latin.packhum.org/loc/914/1/1485/1761-1768" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: archaeopress.com", "url": "https://www.archaeopress.com/Archaeopress/download/9781789696998" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: ejournals.eu", "url": "https://ejournals.eu/en/journal_article_files/full_text/018eced3-936a-734d-a97e-cbaffba8d8f2/download" }, { "title": "Primary source 4: campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "formulaic_colony_and_rural_reorganization_with_picentine_overlap", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-potentia-picene-land-colony-184", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "picentine_transfer_and_potentia", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Archaeology shows changed rural use but not a resident census, named displaced households, or a single outward movement route; overlap with the broader Picentine conquest-transfer parent requires final review" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records a colonial countryside systematically reorganized over earlier Indigenous farm positions while leaving household movement and exact prior parcels unknown." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 1 records new colonial farm positions and smallholder improvements without importing later roads or region-scale infrastructure into the 184 BCE event." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records re-planning of an existing farm landscape into a colonial rural system rather than total productive replacement." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded allotment and reorganization process, for which no process deaths are reported; the earlier Picentine conquest-transfer remains separate." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative land allotment and landscape reorganization without a documented 184 BCE armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a Roman colonial rural pattern occupying earlier Indigenous farm positions while leaving the surviving local pattern and population share unresolved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and location-based land taking rather than ascriptive targeting of Picene people." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.6058841704, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.442941626, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8481099305 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 58.2439289547, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.059703561, "unknown_bound_high": 66.2620918519 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.059351303, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.0193657533, "unknown_bound_high": 83.7186170523 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-mutina-parma-boii-land", "name": "Romans, citizen colonists, and Boii at Mutina and Parma", "start": -183, "end": -183, "date_label": "183 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "one state commission founding twin Roman citizen colonies with explicit settler totals and ranked allotments on former Boii land (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman citizen colonists at Mutina and Parma" ], "victims": [ "Boii and other prior landholders affected by the Mutina and Parma colonial tracts" ], "summary": "One commission founded the twin citizen colonies of Mutina and Parma in former Boii territory with two thousand colonists at each and different allotment sizes Evidence limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal", "confidence": "high on the single 183 BCE commission, two linked sites, attributed two-thousand-person stream at each, former Boii source land, and ranked allotments; low on immediate rural holders, resident movement, household composition, local population shares, and whether later residents represent continuity, return, or migration", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_39.htm" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: catalogo.cultura.gov.it", "url": "https://catalogo.cultura.gov.it/detail/ibc/ArchaeologicalProperty/259688" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: catalogo.cultura.gov.it", "url": "https://catalogo.cultura.gov.it/detail/ibc/ArchaeologicalProperty/260431" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "linked_citizen_colonies_with_ranked_allotments_on_former_boii_land", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-mutina-parma-boii-land", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "mutina_parma_linked", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Mutina had a pre-colonial fortified settlement while Parma's city site lacks secure immediate prehistory; neither condition identifies every prior rural landholder or proves total resident removal" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records the two specific colonial tracts while their share of former Boii territory and prior rural claims remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 2 records a mixed Po-valley frontier landscape rather than an empty or demonstrably labor-scarce zone." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records explicit ranked individual allotments under one commission without claiming comprehensive adjudication of prior titles." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 2 records two durable colonial towns as community-scale works; Mutina's earlier fortified settlement and Parma's different site history remain visible." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records planned redivision of former Boii land around two colonial nodes rather than total regional economic replacement." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 1 uses the attributed four thousand total incoming colonists only as the larger directly moved stream's 1,000–10,000 bin; it is not a displaced-resident count." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded 183 BCE foundation, for which no attributable demographic decline or process deaths are reported; earlier conquest is not imported into this row." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative colonial allotment on already conquered land without a documented 183 BCE armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded foundation process." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records one state commission, specified settlement totals, and ranked allotments for two named sites; it does not imply a removal directive." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records two Roman colonial cores while the surrounding Boii and other resident pattern remains unresolved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and location-based land taking rather than ascriptive targeting of Boii people." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation in the bounded event." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records the dedicated two-site allotment formula rather than generic conquest title alone." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legal_instrumentation_depth", "note": "Score 3 records parcel-level colonial allotments while prior-title processing remains unknown." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 keeps the 183 BCE allotment inside an already Roman territorial regime; the earlier Boii surrender and territorial taking remain in the Bononia sequence." }, { "dimension": "ssi_boundary_hardening", "note": "Score 2 records two demarcated internal frontier colonies with differentiated rights, not a sealed ethnic or interstate border." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.6991631797, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.0178324934, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4230007978 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 57.5059090779, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.4634011265, "unknown_bound_high": 65.6657894174 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.1601955894, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.8770789181, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-saturnia-caletran-land-colony-183", "name": "Saturnia colony and allotments in ager Caletranus", "start": -183, "end": -183, "date_label": "183 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state citizen-colony allotment and bounded survey reorganization at a continuing Etruscan center (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman citizen colonists at Saturnia" ], "victims": [ "Etruscan and local landholders affected by allotments in ager Caletranus" ], "summary": "Livy reports ten-iuger colonial allotments in ager Caletranus; archaeological and survey evidence indicates a bounded colonial land division alongside continued occupation at the older Etruscan center Evidence limit: The evidence does not identify individual prior holders, the full assigned area, local enrollment, or forced movement; limited centuriation and rural continuity rule out a total-replacement claim", "confidence": "high on ten-iuger allotments, the bounded colonial survey, older Etruscan center, and continued occupation; low on individual prior holders, full assigned area, local enrollment, resident movement, settler count, household composition, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: treccani.it", "url": "https://www.treccani.it/enciclopedia/saturnia_res-67ff8e97-8c61-11dc-8e9d-0016357eee51_%28Enciclopedia-dell%27Arte-Antica%29/" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: central.bac-lac.gc.ca", "url": "https://central.bac-lac.gc.ca/.item?app=Library&id=TC-BVAU-2289&oclc_number=1033213695&op=pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "bounded_formulaic_allotment_with_etruscan_continuity", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-saturnia-caletran-land-colony-183", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The evidence does not identify individual prior holders, the full assigned area, local enrollment, or forced movement; limited centuriation and rural continuity rule out a total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The evidence does not identify individual prior holders, the full assigned area, local enrollment, or forced movement; limited centuriation and rural continuity rule out a total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The evidence does not identify individual prior holders, the full assigned area, local enrollment, or forced movement; limited centuriation and rural continuity rule out a total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The evidence does not identify individual prior holders, the full assigned area, local enrollment, or forced movement; limited centuriation and rural continuity rule out a total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The evidence does not identify individual prior holders, the full assigned area, local enrollment, or forced movement; limited centuriation and rural continuity rule out a total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The evidence does not identify individual prior holders, the full assigned area, local enrollment, or forced movement; limited centuriation and rural continuity rule out a total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The evidence does not identify individual prior holders, the full assigned area, local enrollment, or forced movement; limited centuriation and rural continuity rule out a total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The evidence does not identify individual prior holders, the full assigned area, local enrollment, or forced movement; limited centuriation and rural continuity rule out a total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The evidence does not identify individual prior holders, the full assigned area, local enrollment, or forced movement; limited centuriation and rural continuity rule out a total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The evidence does not identify individual prior holders, the full assigned area, local enrollment, or forced movement; limited centuriation and rural continuity rule out a total-replacement claim" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records the continuing Etruscan and local population as part of the successor center's productive base rather than an economy designed to exclude local labor." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records a bounded colonial survey and specific formulaic allotments while stopping below majority-territory extinguishment because the full assigned area is unknown." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records local continuity without evidence that Etruscan residents became a separate coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records bounded re-planning of an occupied agrarian landscape while preserving continued local settlement and rural use." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 0 records continued occupation, limited centuriation, and no documented expulsion; it is not a census-derived claim that every resident remained." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no documented resident decline or process deaths in the bounded foundation." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated Etruscan or local removal route from Saturnia." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative allotment and survey reorganization without a documented armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records a bounded Roman colonial land pattern alongside continuing Etruscan occupation rather than region-wide replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime over continuing residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and location-based land transfer rather than ascriptive targeting of Etruscans." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 75.442941626, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.442941626, "unknown_bound_high": 75.442941626 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 39.9492834513, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7200214457, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 28.7643408248, "unknown_bound_high": 56.762196256 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.343616451, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 52.343616451 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-graviscae-tarquinian-land-colony-181", "name": "Graviscae colony on land taken from Tarquinii", "start": -181, "end": -181, "date_label": "181 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state citizen-colony allotment at an existing Etruscan port on land explicitly taken from Tarquinii (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman citizen colonists at Graviscae" ], "victims": [ "Tarquinian and local landholders affected by the Graviscae colonial tract" ], "summary": "Livy says the colony was established in Etruscan territory on land formerly taken from Tarquinii and reports five-iuger allotments, establishing a local bridge from Roman seizure to settler tenure Evidence limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied", "confidence": "high on the named Tarquinian source land, existing port, and five-iuger allotments; low on parcel-level holders, resident movement, local enrollment, settler count, household composition, legal shares, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: r-site.org", "url": "https://www.r-site.org/f_lat/livius/livius_libri_xxxix_xli.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "formulaic_port_colony_on_named_tarquinian_land", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-graviscae-tarquinian-land-colony-181", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "case_level_only", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The source does not identify parcel-level Tarquinian holders, resident movement, or whether port inhabitants entered the colonial community; an existing port need not have been emptied" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records a specific port-colony tract explicitly taken from Tarquinii while leaving the wider Tarquinian tenure regime and individual holders unresolved." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records five-iuger settler allotments without claiming a complete port cadastre or adjudication of prior claims." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded 181 BCE allotment operation, for which no process deaths are reported; earlier Roman seizure is not converted into a new killing claim." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative settlement on explicitly taken land without a documented 181 BCE armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and location-based land taking rather than ascriptive targeting of Tarquinians or port residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.1185732823, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.7946887713, "unknown_bound_high": 84.1998570758 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-q-fulvius-ligures-lowlands", "name": "Romans and unnamed Ligurian district", "start": -180, "end": -179, "date_label": "180–179 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-compelled lowland concentration and source-land military occupation (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Quintus Fulvius and the Roman army" ], "victims": [ "Residents of an unnamed Ligurian district compelled into the plains" ], "summary": "After surrender Quintus Fulvius brought the district's Ligurian population into the plains and garrisoned the mountains Evidence limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE", "confidence": "high on a separate compelled lowland concentration; medium on chronology; low on subgroup identity, source district, destination, population share, count, household composition, and later status", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: swartzentrover.com", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/E-Books/misc/Livy/HOR_40.htm" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: cambridge.org", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-roman-studies/article/connectivity-and-disconnectivity-in-the-roman-empire/712C95A9B097B44CA076473E08577C4D" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "forced_lowland_concentration_and_source_garrison", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-q-fulvius-ligures-lowlands", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "ligurian_apuan_boundaries", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "The evidence does not establish household composition, return behavior, or the degree of self-reproducing permanent settlement. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "The evidence does not support a defensible event-specific persistence judgment rather than a generic inference from later Roman rule. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "The bounded evidence does not establish whether land or labor was the binding factor when the destination economy was organized. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_destination_saturation", "note": "The source set does not permit a reliable onset-density or political-saturation judgment for the bounded zone. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "The sources do not show whether conversion, allegiance, or conduct could avert targeting while a person remained in place. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The subgroup, precise source district, precise destination, and whether Livy's 3,200 denotes fighters or all surrendering residents are unresolved; modern dates vary between 180 and 179 BCE" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "Score 4 treats the relocated Ligurian population as the destination's incoming stream: the move followed surrender and a command rather than household choice." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 1 records an explicitly local hill-to-plain transfer; exact endpoints remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies only to the bounded lowland-concentration operation, for which no transfer deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies only to the relocation operation and does not deny deaths elsewhere in the Ligurian war." }, { "dimension": "ssi_boundary_hardening", "note": "Score 2 records military occupation of the vacated source mountains alongside concentration in the plains; it does not imply a later sealed ethnic frontier." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 22.5133446018, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1902447541, "unknown_bound_high": 37.3926330449 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 22.6120958478, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.9992215637, "unknown_bound_high": 31.5544276874 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 44.2495396954, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6742324678, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 29.8344763458, "unknown_bound_high": 62.4112295705 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-ager-ligustinus-gallicus-allotment-173", "name": "Ager Ligustinus et Gallicus individual allotments", "start": -173, "end": -173, "date_label": "173 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state commission assigning war-acquired public land to Roman citizens and Latin allies under separate parcel formulas (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman citizen and Latin-allied individual allottees" ], "victims": [ "Immediate prior users and claimants of the ager Ligustinus et Gallicus tract" ], "summary": "Livy describes a ten-man commission distributing land said to have been taken in war and left unassigned, with ten iugera for Roman citizens and three for Latin allies Evidence limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer", "confidence": "high on the 173 BCE commission, war-acquired land statement, and ten- versus three-iuger formulas; low on exact tract, immediate prior users, recipient total, resident movement, household composition, population proportions, and any connection to the Apuan transfer", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: ancienttexts.org", "url": "https://www.ancienttexts.org/library/latinlibrary/livy/liv.42.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: holypig.com", "url": "https://holypig.com/cotor/E-Books/misc/Livy/HOR_42.htm" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/broadhead-2007-internal-migration-republican-italy.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_VIRITANE_PREGRACCHAN_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_VIRITANE_PREGRACCHAN_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_viritane_pregracchan_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_viritane_pregracchan_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "commissioned_allotment_on_war_acquired_ligurian_gallic_land", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-ager-ligustinus-gallicus-allotment-173", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "ligurian_apuan_boundaries", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "The evidence does not support a defensible event-specific persistence judgment rather than a generic inference from later Roman rule. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "The bounded evidence does not establish whether land or labor was the binding factor when the destination economy was organized. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "hdem_destination_saturation", "note": "The source set does not permit a reliable onset-density or political-saturation judgment for the bounded zone. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The source supplies neither a recipient total nor the exact tract, immediate prior users, resident movement, or a secure link to the separately bounded Apuan transfer" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records individual Roman and Latin-allied allottees without a separate settler-run polity." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records one war-acquired tract transferred through separate parcel formulas while the exact land and immediate prior users remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 1 records the source's claim that the war-acquired tract lay unassigned while still naming its Ligurian and Gallic character; it is not treated as proof that the wider region was empty." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records a ten-man commission and separate ten- and three-iuger allotment formulas without claiming a comprehensive registry." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records intended continued agrarian use under new individual tenure rather than a documented new production system." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded 173 BCE allotment operation, for which no process deaths are reported; earlier war losses remain outside the row." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative distribution of war-acquired land without a documented 173 BCE armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the allotment process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a named commission and two explicit parcel formulas; it does not imply a contemporaneous removal order." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records tract- and parcel-based assignment rather than ascriptive targeting of Ligurians or Gauls." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records internal allocation of a tract already classified as Roman war-acquired public land rather than a new sovereignty transfer in 173 BCE." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records individual grants rather than a corporate colony." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.9402722224, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.2434980962, "unknown_bound_high": 89.6486664006 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 71.7235995538, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3786989604, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 89.2917565467 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 44.2495396954, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6742324678, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 29.8344763458, "unknown_bound_high": 62.4112295705 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-carthage-destruction-enslavement-land-seizure-149-146", "name": "Roman destruction of Carthage, captive removal, and territorial annexation", "start": -149, "end": -146, "date_label": "149–146 BCE", "region": "North Africa", "mechanism": "state siege, urban destruction, captive removal and territorial annexation without immediate successor settlement; Orosius separately reports captive sale", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman Senate and army under Scipio Aemilianus" ], "victims": [ "Residents of Carthage and the Carthaginian civic community" ], "summary": "Appian describes six days and nights of urban fighting and the surrender of 50,000 men and women before the city was destroyed; the later lex agraria identifies African land assigned to the Roman people by Scipio Aemilianus in 146, independently confirming the territorial seizure Evidence limit: Appian's 50,000 is an attributed ancient figure, not a census; deaths before the surrender cannot be counted securely, survivors' individual destinations are not preserved, and the sources do not support the later salt-sowing story", "confidence": "high on the city destruction, mass enslavement, and transfer of territory to the Roman people; medium on process sequence; low on total deaths, the surrendered population count, individual slave destinations, and immediate land administration", "sources": [ { "title": "Appian, Punic Wars", "locator": "assault, agreed departure, destruction, residence restrictions and territorial administration; 50,000 departure claim, not sale of that group", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_42_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Carthage ruling" }, "url": "https://www.livius.org/sources/content/appian/appian-the-punic-wars/appian-the-punic-wars-26/" }, { "title": "Orosius, Histories Against the Pagans", "locator": "later 25,000 women / 30,000 men and captive-sale account; distinct from Appian", "role": "later_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_42_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Carthage ruling" } }, { "title": "Kim (2023), Privatization of ager in Africa from 123 to 63 BC", "locator": "modern analysis of the agrarian law and territorial consequences", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_42_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Carthage ruling" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/kim-2023-privatization-ager-africa.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "city_destruction_mass_enslavement_and_annexation", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-carthage-destruction-enslavement-land-seizure-149-146", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "carthage_destruction_and_junonia", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Appian's 50,000 is an attributed ancient figure, not a census; deaths before the surrender cannot be counted securely, survivors' individual destinations are not preserved, and the sources do not support the later salt-sowing story" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Appian's 50,000 is an attributed ancient figure, not a census; deaths before the surrender cannot be counted securely, survivors' individual destinations are not preserved, and the sources do not support the later salt-sowing story" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Appian's 50,000 is an attributed ancient figure, not a census; deaths before the surrender cannot be counted securely, survivors' individual destinations are not preserved, and the sources do not support the later salt-sowing story" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 4 records destruction of the civic community and transfer of its territory to the Roman people; it does not rely on the false later salt-sowing story." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 4 records the absence of a resident Carthaginian civic community after destruction, killing, surrender, and slave sale; Appian's 50,000 remains an attributed claim." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 2 records Appian's claimed 50,000 surrendered men and women only as a 10,000-100,000 order-of-magnitude claim, not a census." }, { "dimension": "hdem_present_day_endpoint", "note": "Score 4 records the disappearance of the prior Carthaginian civic population from the bounded city and dominance of later successor populations; it does not claim modern residents descend directly from the 146 BCE Roman army." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 4 records the sale of the surrendered survivor population into slavery, a custodial legal regime, while their individual destinations remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 3 records limited escape through defection or exceptional sparing while the surrendered Carthaginian civic population was otherwise enslaved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 1 records an incidental wartime asymmetry between combatants and the men and women reported among the surrendered population; no categorical sex-selective policy is asserted." } ], "metadata_count_qualifier": "Appian reports 50,000 men and women leaving after an agreement to spare those wishing to depart; the opened passage does not say they were sold. Orosius separately reports 25,000 women and 30,000 men and nearly all captives sold. These are distinct transmitted claims, not additive or corroborating census observations; do not add, average, harmonize or derive a percentage.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.482279822, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.482279822, "unknown_bound_high": 90.482279822 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 41.643273121, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.643273121, "unknown_bound_high": 41.643273121 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.2770846054, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8152528685, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.478341948, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 76.3136417099, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 49.0833256168, "unknown_bound_high": 84.7654336685 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 38.4717185006, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3583525938, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.7864401114, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-salassian-land-eporedia", "name": "Rome, Roman colonists, and Salassi", "start": -143, "end": -100, "date_label": "143–100 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest and expulsion from Salassian plain and gold-working land, with mountain survival and a later Roman garrison colony (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman colonists and garrison community at Eporedia" ], "victims": [ "Salassi expelled from their plain country and gold workings but remaining in the mountains" ], "summary": "After war Rome deprived the Salassi of their gold workings and plain country while they retained the mountains; Eporedia was founded as a Roman garrison against them in 100 BCE Evidence limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous", "confidence": "high on Salassian loss of the plain and gold workings, survival in the mountains, and Eporedia's 100 BCE garrison-colony role; medium on the 143 versus 140 conquest chronology; low on confiscated parcels, settler total, household composition, resident proportions, casualty share, and exact return history", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: livius.org", "url": "https://www.livius.org/sources/content/livy/livy-periochae-51-55/" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/e/roman/texts/strabo/4f%2A.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/thayer/e/roman/texts/velleius_paterculus/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: books.openedition.org", "url": "https://books.openedition.org/pccj/120?format=embed" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: tp-online.ku.de", "url": "https://tp-online.ku.de/trefferanzeige_en.php?id=3315" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "salassian_plain_and_gold_land_loss_mountain_survival_and_garrison_colony", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-salassian-land-eporedia", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "salassian_two_phase", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Livy dates subjugation to 143 while another ancient epitome may place final victory in 140; exact confiscated parcels and Eporedia allotments are not reconstructed; Velleius's Bagienni placement is erroneous" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records formal loss of the Salassian plain and gold-working tracts while their retained mountain territory prevents a comprehensive-extinguishment claim." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 2 records an occupied mountain-and-plain patchwork rather than an empty frontier or a demonstrated labor-shortage regime." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 3 records Eporedia as a durable garrison-city foundation securing the taken lowland approach." }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "Score 3 records metropolitan extraction of the gold workings as an organizing purpose of the land taking, not a claim that every part of the successor economy was an export enclave." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued mining and agrarian uses under transferred control rather than a wholly new production system." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 1 records localized expulsion from plain and gold-working districts alongside explicit Salassian survival in the mountains; it is not a census-derived percentage." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 2 preserves the 143/140–100 BCE land-seizure-to-garrison-colony sequence as a multi-decade transformation." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 1 records short internal displacement from plain and working zones toward retained mountain territory rather than exile from the region." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records armed conquest effecting the Salassian loss of plain and gold-working land without importing the distinct 25 BCE custodial enslavement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_subsistence_destruction", "note": "Score 2 records localized loss of economically central plain and mining livelihoods rather than destruction of the entire Salassian subsistence base." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records state seizure of specified strategic-economic zones and the later deliberate garrison colony; it does not imply a total-removal plan." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a Roman lowland and garrison core while Salassian life continued in the mountains." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 1 records de facto relegation to retained mountain country without claiming a codified reservation or pass regime." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 2 records a bounded multi-year conquest and lowland expulsion rather than the distinct one-operation removal of 25 BCE." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records territorial and resistance-based coercion rather than an inescapable descent rule targeting every Salassian person." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 2 records a distinct subordinated Salassian community surviving in reduced mountain territory under Roman control; it is not a complete reconstruction of individual legal status." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 2 records the planned garrison-colony node without claiming a surviving comprehensive survey or population registry." }, { "dimension": "ssi_boundary_hardening", "note": "Score 1 records a soft internal distinction between Roman-controlled lowlands and retained Salassian mountains, not a regulated or sealed boundary." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.2204166456, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.2204166456, "unknown_bound_high": 86.2204166456 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 50.294144833, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8820517642, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.3620391795, "unknown_bound_high": 56.1568627583 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.1601955894, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.8770789181, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 39.0940167687, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.0078729721, "unknown_bound_high": 76.6186916789 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 44.6027740958, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.5336215652, "unknown_bound_high": 70.7709357406 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 65.7093438282, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.5212375603, "unknown_bound_high": 69.9823363795 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-gracchan-ager-gallicus-picenum-allotment-132", "name": "Gracchan land allotment between Pisaurum and Fanum", "start": -132, "end": -132, "date_label": "132 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state commission boundary and allotment phase between Pisaurum and Fanum, known through later official restoration (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic and the Gracchan agrarian commission", "Unidentified beneficiaries between Pisaurum and Fanum" ], "victims": [ "Unidentified immediate users or landholders affected by the 132 BCE boundary order" ], "summary": "CIL I2 719 records the 82 or 81 BCE re-establishment of boundary stones originally set by the Gracchan commissioners in 132 BCE between Pisaurum and Fanum, demonstrating a durable local survey and assignment regime Evidence limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement", "confidence": "high on the 132 BCE commission boundary and its 82/81 BCE official re-establishment; low on original allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, movement, household composition, and the local shares already transformed in the 232 and 184 BCE phases", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: attalus.org", "url": "https://www.attalus.org/docs/cil/works.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: commons.wikimedia.org", "url": "https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AGracchan_land_distributions.svg" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: brill.com", "url": "https://brill.com/downloadpdf/display/title/64787.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_GRACCHAN_REGIONAL_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_GRACCHAN_REGIONAL_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_gracchan_regional_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_gracchan_regional_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "restored_boundary_notice_for_distinct_gracchan_ager_gallicus_allotment_phase", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-gracchan-ager-gallicus-picenum-allotment-132", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "ager_gallicus_multiphase | gracchan_program_regions", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "The evidence does not establish household composition, return behavior, or the degree of self-reproducing permanent settlement. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "The legal freedom and full composition of the incoming cohort are not recoverable. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "The evidence does not isolate the buildup of an incoming population from the broader campaign or settlement history. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The surviving inscription is a later restoration notice; it does not identify the 132 BCE allottees, parcel sizes, immediate prior users, or resident movement" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records beneficiaries inside the Roman polity without a separate settler government." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records one local Gracchan boundary-and-allotment zone while the older 232 and 184 BCE land orders remain separate sensitivity phases." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 0 records no renaming, emptiness doctrine, or narrative erasure." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 uses the official 82/81 BCE restoration as direct evidence that the 132 BCE land order remained institutionally operative." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 2 records a repeatedly allotted regional patchwork rather than an empty frontier or a single dense urban tract." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records commission boundary setting and later official restoration without a surviving full title registry." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 0 records boundary and allotment work without a source-supported new town or infrastructure program." }, { "dimension": "pel_strategic_position_weight", "note": "Score 0 records agrarian redistribution rather than a documented security rationale." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued agrarian use under a renewed title and boundary layer rather than a new production system." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no documented demographic decline or process deaths in the bounded administrative phase." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the one-year 132 BCE implementation phase; the 82/81 restoration is aftermath evidence, not a forty-year event window." }, { "dimension": "hdem_stream_coordination", "note": "Score 4 records state commission assignment of beneficiaries while their number and origin remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative land division without importing the much earlier Senone conquest or an undocumented 132 BCE expulsion." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded land-order phase." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a commission-set boundary whose later official restoration confirms deliberate implementation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records a Roman legal-allotment layer without a new colonial city or demonstrated cultural replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and title-based adjudication rather than ascriptive targeting." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records dedicated commission boundary-setting and later restoration machinery." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 keeps the 132 BCE allotment inside an already Roman land regime and does not repeat the earlier Senone sovereignty taking." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 2 records official boundary definition and restoration without a comprehensive resident or parcel registry." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records state-assigned beneficiaries rather than a chartered colonial polity." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.9148939987, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.5400038056, "unknown_bound_high": 84.94517211 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.0776098405, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 64.0998258709, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7792553267, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 49.9501307513, "unknown_bound_high": 72.0245980799 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-gracchan-vallo-diano-lucania-allotment-132-130", "name": "Gracchan survey and allotment in Lucania and the Vallo di Diano", "start": -132, "end": -130, "date_label": "132–130 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state survey and allotment of a contiguous public-land zone in Lucania and the Vallo di Diano (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic and the Gracchan agrarian commission", "Unidentified beneficiaries of the Vallo di Diano allotments" ], "victims": [ "Unidentified prior occupiers or landholders affected by the surveyed public-land division" ], "summary": "Nine Gracchan commission stones are reported from Lucania; CIL I2 639 at Atina names the commissioners in 131 BCE and marks a cardo and decumanus, while stones near Atina, Cosilinum, and Tegianum document surveyed public land in the Vallo di Diano Evidence limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission", "confidence": "high on the 132–130 BCE commission, nine-stone regional series, cardo-decumanus survey language, and contiguous Vallo implementation; low on prior occupiers, allottees, exact transferred parcels, movement, household composition, and the relationship to the separate Polla evidence hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: attalus.org", "url": "https://www.attalus.org/docs/cil/works.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: tara.tcd.ie", "url": "https://www.tara.tcd.ie/tara8/server/api/core/bitstreams/03bf94d8-0dda-4afb-b942-ee7ea74d0202/content" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: dokumen.pub", "url": "https://dokumen.pub/public-land-in-the-roman-republic-a-social-and-economic-history-of-ager-publicus-in-italy-396-89-bc-0199577234-9780199577231.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_GRACCHAN_REGIONAL_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_GRACCHAN_REGIONAL_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_gracchan_regional_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_gracchan_regional_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "dense_boundary_stone_series_and_contiguous_vallo_land_allotment", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-gracchan-vallo-diano-lucania-allotment-132-130", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "gracchan_program_regions", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "The evidence does not establish household composition, return behavior, or the degree of self-reproducing permanent settlement. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "The legal freedom and full composition of the incoming cohort are not recoverable. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "The evidence does not isolate the buildup of an incoming population from the broader campaign or settlement history. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The archive is source-dense but not a census: prior occupiers, recipient totals, exact parcels transferred, and resident movement are mostly unknown; the Polla inscription cannot automatically be treated as another description of the commission" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records land beneficiaries inside the Roman polity without a separate settler government." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records a dense, contiguous regional survey-and-allotment apparatus while exact prior parcels and retained holdings remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 0 records no renaming, emptiness doctrine, or narrative erasure." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records consolidation of the surveyed public-land order, not demographic replacement by a known incoming population." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 2 records a mixed valley landscape with established centers and assignable public land rather than an empty frontier." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records named commissioners, repeated boundary stones, and standardized survey axes without a surviving complete title registry." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 0 records survey and land division without a source-supported new town or infrastructure program." }, { "dimension": "pel_strategic_position_weight", "note": "Score 0 records agrarian redistribution rather than a documented security rationale." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records regional field re-planning into allotments while the agricultural system remains recognizably continuous." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no documented demographic decline or process deaths in the administrative program." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the source-dense 132–130 BCE implementation pulse." }, { "dimension": "hdem_stream_coordination", "note": "Score 4 records state commission assignment of beneficiaries while their number and origin remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative survey and land division without a documented armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded program." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a named commission implementing a standardized regional survey-and-allotment plan." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a Roman allotment grid across a bounded valley zone while prior communities and the Polla question remain visible." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and title-based adjudication rather than ascriptive targeting." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records dedicated commission and survey machinery for the regional allotment." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records internal allocation of Roman public land rather than a new sovereignty transfer." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 2 records cardo-decumanus axes and boundary marking without a surviving comprehensive registry." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records state-assigned beneficiaries rather than a chartered colonial polity." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.9148939987, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.5400038056, "unknown_bound_high": 84.94517211 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 55.7572735565, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.0505453878, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2529336787 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.0776098405, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 64.0998258709, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7792553267, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 49.9501307513, "unknown_bound_high": 72.0245980799 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-gracchan-northern-campania-land-division-131", "name": "Gracchan land division in northern Campania near Capua", "start": -131, "end": -131, "date_label": "131 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state commission survey, adjudication, and land division in a bounded northern Campanian zone near Capua (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic and the Gracchan agrarian commission", "Unidentified beneficiaries of the northern Campanian division" ], "victims": [ "Unidentified occupiers or landholders whose interests were altered within the surveyed zone" ], "summary": "CIL I2 640 records the Gracchan commissioners on a 131 BCE boundary stone found at Sant'Angelo in Formis near Capua; the stone marks a surveyed grid, demonstrating implementation of adjudication and land division in the northern Campanian landscape Evidence limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious", "confidence": "high on the 131 BCE commission stone, surveyed grid, and locally implemented land division; medium on durability of the bounded land order; low on the exact footprint, allottees, prior occupiers, parcel succession, resident movement, household composition, and population effects", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: attalus.org", "url": "https://www.attalus.org/docs/cil/works.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: commons.wikimedia.org", "url": "https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AGracchan_land_distributions.svg" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: kclpure.kcl.ac.uk", "url": "https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/files/319087324/Italian_unification.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_GRACCHAN_REGIONAL_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_GRACCHAN_REGIONAL_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_gracchan_regional_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_gracchan_regional_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "locally_attested_gracchan_grid_and_land_division_near_capua", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-gracchan-northern-campania-land-division-131", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "capua_multiphase | gracchan_program_regions", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "The evidence does not establish household composition, return behavior, or the degree of self-reproducing permanent settlement. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "The legal freedom and full composition of the incoming cohort are not recoverable. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "The evidence does not isolate the buildup of an incoming population from the broader campaign or settlement history. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The stone does not identify allottee numbers, previous occupiers, parcels taken from specific people, or any resident destination; Cicero's later claim that the Gracchi did not touch the ager Campanus makes the exact territorial scope contentious" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records beneficiaries holding land inside the Roman polity without a separate settler government." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records a bounded surveyed and reassigned zone rather than Cicero's disputed whole ager Campanus or a comprehensive prior-title extinction." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 0 records no renaming, emptiness doctrine, or narrative erasure in the surviving evidence." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 3 records a materially attested land order whose exact footprint remained contested, not demographic dominance by a known settler group." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 0 records land division in a densely occupied and cultivated Campanian landscape rather than an open frontier." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records a state commission, boundary stone, and standardized grid without claiming comprehensive prior-title adjudication." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 0 records land survey and division without a source-supported new town or infrastructure program." }, { "dimension": "pel_strategic_position_weight", "note": "Score 0 records an agrarian redistribution rationale rather than a documented security or garrison purpose." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records re-planning of existing agricultural land through a survey grid while the resulting farm system remains only partly reconstructable." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no documented demographic decline or process deaths in the bounded administrative division." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the locally attested 131 BCE implementation pulse." }, { "dimension": "hdem_stream_coordination", "note": "Score 4 records state commission assignment of beneficiaries while their number and actual origins remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative survey and land division without a documented armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded land division." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a named central commission implementing a surveyed land-division plan." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a Roman survey grid and allotment core within a continuing Campanian landscape." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and title-based adjudication rather than ascriptive targeting of a population category." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records dedicated commission and survey machinery for this land division." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records internal reallocation of Roman public land rather than a new sovereignty transfer or a repetition of Capua's 211 BCE confiscation." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 2 records the cardo-decumanus grid and boundary marking without a surviving comprehensive registry." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records unidentified state-assigned land beneficiaries rather than a chartered colonial polity." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 3 records a durable administrative land order with disputed scope, not an independently sovereign settlement." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.9148939987, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.5400038056, "unknown_bound_high": 84.94517211 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.9804454801, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0940476491 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 50.6562495448, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7792553267, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4741522891, "unknown_bound_high": 61.5486196177 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-gracchan-hirpinian-land-adjudication-130-123", "name": "Gracchan adjudication and assignment around Aeclanum and eastern Hirpinia", "start": -130, "end": -123, "date_label": "130–123 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state commission adjudication of established estates and assignable public land across eastern Hirpinia, with retained occupiers explicitly marked (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic and successive Gracchan agrarian commissioners", "Unidentified beneficiaries of Hirpinian assignments" ], "victims": [ "Occupiers and landholders whose claims were adjudicated or reduced around Aeclanum and eastern Hirpinia" ], "summary": "Boundary stones around Aeclanum and eastern Hirpinia record the agrarian commissioners from about 130-129 BCE and again in 123 BCE; several explicitly distinguish estates of established occupiers allowed to remain, showing adjudication, retention, and assignable-land boundaries within one continuing regional program Evidence limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands", "confidence": "high on repeated 130–123 BCE commission activity, boundary adjudication, explicit retained estates, and assignable-land distinctions; low on allottee totals, displaced holders, movement, household composition, changed-land share, and demographic outcomes", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: attalus.org", "url": "https://www.attalus.org/docs/cil/works.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: archcalc.cnr.it", "url": "https://www.archcalc.cnr.it/indice/issues/AC_36.2.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: eurekamag.com", "url": "https://eurekamag.com/research/103/560/103560050.php" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_GRACCHAN_REGIONAL_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_GRACCHAN_REGIONAL_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_gracchan_regional_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_gracchan_regional_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "repeated_commission_adjudication_retained_estates_and_assignable_land_in_hirpinia", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-gracchan-hirpinian-land-adjudication-130-123", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "gracchan_program_regions", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "The evidence does not establish household composition, return behavior, or the degree of self-reproducing permanent settlement. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "The legal freedom and full composition of the incoming cohort are not recoverable. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "The evidence does not isolate the buildup of an incoming population from the broader campaign or settlement history. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The stones map legal boundaries rather than population movement; they preserve no allottee count, no list of displaced holders, no route, and no proof that every surveyed estate changed hands" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records land beneficiaries inside the Roman polity without a separate settler government." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records repeated regional adjudication and reassignment through a systematic apparatus while explicit retained estates prevent a comprehensive score." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 0 records no renaming, emptiness doctrine, or narrative erasure." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records a repeated and consolidated regional property order, not a claim of demographic replacement." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 2 records a patchwork of established estates and assignable public land rather than either a dense total landscape or an empty frontier." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 4 records repeated commission adjudication distinguishing retained estates from assignable land across the bounded region." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 0 records legal-spatial adjudication without a source-supported new town or infrastructure program." }, { "dimension": "pel_strategic_position_weight", "note": "Score 0 records an agrarian-adjudication rationale rather than a documented security purpose." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continuity of existing estates and agriculture under newly adjudicated boundaries." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no documented demographic decline or process deaths in the administrative program." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 records successive commission phases across seven years rather than one-day or multi-generational change." }, { "dimension": "hdem_stream_coordination", "note": "Score 4 records state commission assignment of beneficiaries while the incoming population itself remains undocumented." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative adjudication and reassignment without a documented armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded program." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records named successive commissions implementing an explicit land-adjudication program." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records Roman legal boundaries alongside explicitly retained occupiers rather than a replacement landscape." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records estate- and title-based decisions rather than ascriptive targeting." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records dedicated commission and boundary-adjudication machinery." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records internal public-land adjudication rather than a new conquest or sovereignty transfer." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 3 records a regional boundary system tied to explicit legal distinctions between retained and assignable estates." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records state-assigned land beneficiaries rather than a chartered colonial polity." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.5369213013, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.0581375295, "unknown_bound_high": 86.4633058339 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 62.8085375923, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50.747798324, "unknown_bound_high": 69.9501866148 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.0776098405, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 73.9232145023, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6757029045, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 49.9501307513, "unknown_bound_high": 82.3798402985 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-gracchan-northern-apulia-allotment-130", "name": "Gracchan land survey and small-farm assignment in northern Apulia", "start": -130, "end": -130, "date_label": "130 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state survey and small-farm assignment in a bounded northern Apulian public-land zone (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic and the Gracchan agrarian commission", "Unidentified small-farm beneficiaries in northern Apulia" ], "victims": [ "Unidentified prior occupiers or landholders affected in the supported northern-plain zone" ], "summary": "A Gracchan commission boundary stone from Celenza Valfortore is dated about 130 BCE; two or more stones from the area and archaeological evidence support parceling of relatively level public land in northern Apulia into small farms, while Canusium and several unsurveyed zones remained outside the operation Evidence limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed", "confidence": "high on the c. 130 BCE commission stone and bounded northern Apulian implementation; medium on small-farm parceling in the supported landscape; low on grid chronology beyond the anchored zone, allottees, dispossessed holders, movement, household composition, and any southern extension", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: sabapfoggia.cultura.gov.it", "url": "https://sabapfoggia.cultura.gov.it/cippo-celenza-valfortore/" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: small-2022-apulian-lucanian-border.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/small-2022-apulian-lucanian-border.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: dokumen.pub", "url": "https://dokumen.pub/public-land-in-the-roman-republic-a-social-and-economic-history-of-ager-publicus-in-italy-396-89-bc-0199577234-9780199577231.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_GRACCHAN_REGIONAL_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_GRACCHAN_REGIONAL_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_gracchan_regional_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_gracchan_regional_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "bounded_northern_apulian_survey_and_small_farm_assignment", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-gracchan-northern-apulia-allotment-130", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "apulian_multiphase_allotment | gracchan_program_regions", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "The evidence does not establish household composition, return behavior, or the degree of self-reproducing permanent settlement. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "The legal freedom and full composition of the incoming cohort are not recoverable. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "The evidence does not isolate the buildup of an incoming population from the broader campaign or settlement history. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: Overlapping centuriation grids have several possible dates; the stones do not identify allottees or dispossessed occupiers, and evidence does not support treating all Apulia or the Apulian-Lucanian border as redistributed" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records small-farm beneficiaries inside the Roman polity without a separate settler government." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records a bounded northern Apulian assignment zone while Canusium, unsurveyed land, and uncertain southern grids remain outside the event." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 0 records no renaming, emptiness doctrine, or narrative erasure." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 3 records a materially attested local land order while overlapping grids and uncertain wider chronology prevent a fully consolidated regional claim." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 2 records relatively level assignable land amid an occupied Apulian patchwork rather than an empty frontier." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records commission boundary stones and small-farm parceling without a complete title registry." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 0 records survey and farm assignment without a source-supported new town or infrastructure program." }, { "dimension": "pel_strategic_position_weight", "note": "Score 0 records agrarian redistribution rather than a documented security rationale." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records division into small farms within the supported zone while excluding uncertain grids and other Apulian regions." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no documented demographic decline or process deaths in the bounded administrative program." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the c. 130 BCE implementation pulse." }, { "dimension": "hdem_stream_coordination", "note": "Score 4 records state commission assignment of beneficiaries while their number and origin remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative survey and assignment without a documented armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded program." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a named commission implementing a bounded small-farm assignment plan." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records a Roman small-farm grid within a continuing regional landscape rather than cultural replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and title-based adjudication rather than ascriptive targeting." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records dedicated commission and survey machinery for the bounded assignment." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records internal allocation of Roman public land rather than a new sovereignty transfer or repetition of earlier Apulian conquest." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 2 records standardized small-farm parcels and boundary stones without a comprehensive registry." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records state-assigned beneficiaries rather than a chartered colonial polity." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 3 records a durable bounded land order while wider grid attribution remains uncertain." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.9148939987, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.5400038056, "unknown_bound_high": 84.94517211 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.0776098405, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 50.6562495448, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7792553267, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4741522891, "unknown_bound_high": 61.5486196177 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-fregellae-destruction-fabrateria", "name": "Rome, residents of Fregellae, and Fabrateria Nova", "start": -125, "end": -124, "date_label": "125–124 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state sack and deliberate urban-rural clearance after revolt, followed by probable partial survivor relocation to a nearby successor town (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Roman forces and the founders of Fabrateria Nova" ], "victims": [ "Residents and rural communities of Fregellae displaced by destruction and abandonment" ], "summary": "After Fregellae's revolt and surrender Rome sacked and destroyed the city; Fabrateria Nova was founded nearby the following year and may have received some survivors Evidence limit: No source provides a survivor count, proves that all residents moved to Fabrateria Nova, or establishes outsider replacement at Fregellae; the exact relationship between destroyed urban land and the new foundation remains partly inferential", "confidence": "high on surrender, sack, deliberate urban destruction, broad rural-site contraction, durable abandonment, and Fabrateria Nova's next-year foundation; medium on partial survivor relocation; low on survivor and death counts, precise routes, retained activity, parcel succession, and the exact relationship between old and new territories", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: test.livius.org", "url": "https://test.livius.org/sources/content/livy/livy-periochae-56-60?level=5" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: leiza.de", "url": "https://www.leiza.de/en/research/project-4/fregellae-125-v-chr" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: iris.uniroma1.it", "url": "https://iris.uniroma1.it/handle/11573/1349596" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 3: cambridge.org", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/papers-of-the-british-school-at-rome/article/abs/excavations-at-fregellae-19781984/5EF0D83A1C5DD9129573F7BFCCD46BF0" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 4: comune.arce.fr.it", "url": "https://www.comune.arce.fr.it/vivere-il-comune/luoghi/parco-archeologico-di-fregellae/" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "revolt_surrender_city_and_countryside_clearance_with_probable_nearby_relocation", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-fregellae-destruction-fabrateria", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "fregellae_three_phase", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: No source provides a survivor count, proves that all residents moved to Fabrateria Nova, or establishes outsider replacement at Fregellae; the exact relationship between destroyed urban land and the new foundation remains partly inferential" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: No source provides a survivor count, proves that all residents moved to Fabrateria Nova, or establishes outsider replacement at Fregellae; the exact relationship between destroyed urban land and the new foundation remains partly inferential" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: No source provides a survivor count, proves that all residents moved to Fabrateria Nova, or establishes outsider replacement at Fregellae; the exact relationship between destroyed urban land and the new foundation remains partly inferential" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: No source provides a survivor count, proves that all residents moved to Fabrateria Nova, or establishes outsider replacement at Fregellae; the exact relationship between destroyed urban land and the new foundation remains partly inferential" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: No source provides a survivor count, proves that all residents moved to Fabrateria Nova, or establishes outsider replacement at Fregellae; the exact relationship between destroyed urban land and the new foundation remains partly inferential" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: No source provides a survivor count, proves that all residents moved to Fabrateria Nova, or establishes outsider replacement at Fregellae; the exact relationship between destroyed urban land and the new foundation remains partly inferential" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: No source provides a survivor count, proves that all residents moved to Fabrateria Nova, or establishes outsider replacement at Fregellae; the exact relationship between destroyed urban land and the new foundation remains partly inferential" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: No source provides a survivor count, proves that all residents moved to Fabrateria Nova, or establishes outsider replacement at Fregellae; the exact relationship between destroyed urban land and the new foundation remains partly inferential" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated outsider settler stream; Fabrateria Nova may instead have received part of the displaced Fregellan community." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records durable clearance of the urban center and broad rural contraction while limited activity and exact parcel succession prevent a comprehensive score." }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "Score 0 records no documented outside beneficiary population entering the cleared Fregellan zone." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records no successor outsider economy demonstrated on the cleared land; probable survivor relocation is not a coerced labor regime." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 2 records the nearby successor-town foundation as a community-scale work while preserving uncertainty about its exact territorial relationship to old Fregellae." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 4 records the old city's deliberate abandonment and the destruction or contraction of many rural sites, not a claim that all regional production ceased." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 3 uses durable urban abandonment and limited residual activity as a bounded population-removal proxy; it is not a census-derived survivor percentage." }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated outsider settler cohort in the cleared zone." }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming settler stream; probable displaced-survivor movement is measured as victim relocation instead." }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "Score 0 records no established outsider settler population." }, { "dimension": "hdem_stream_coordination", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming settler stream." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 1 records probable short-radius movement of at least some survivors to nearby Fabrateria Nova while the share and other destinations remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records surrender followed by sack and deliberate destruction without a documented custodial deportation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_subsistence_destruction", "note": "Score 3 records deliberate urban clearance together with widespread rural-site destruction or abandonment across the local theater." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a centrally executed punitive destruction and next-year successor foundation; it does not imply a documented total-relocation plan." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records Roman destruction of the old civic center and a successor node nearby while survivor composition remains uncertain." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime at survivors' destinations." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 2 records durable nonreturn to a deliberately ruined city despite no surviving formal return ban." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 3 records the acute 125–124 BCE destruction-and-successor sequence." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records punishment for revolt and location rather than an inescapable descent category." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records punitive reorganization inside Roman-controlled Italy rather than a new transfer of ultimate sovereignty." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 2 records a named successor foundation after clearance without claiming a documented cadastral resettlement plan." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.3991214698, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.3991214698, "unknown_bound_high": 90.3991214698 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 48.7671197779, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4026680799, "unknown_bound_high": 58.6050563708 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.7784941088, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8152528685, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.5498416672, "unknown_bound_high": 68.0245548141 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 45.2019955588, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 71.0871010785 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 62.1559618214, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.1559618214, "unknown_bound_high": 62.1559618214 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-junonia-carthage-land-allotment-123-111", "name": "Junonia colonial allotments on annexed Carthaginian land", "start": -123, "end": -111, "date_label": "123/122–111 BCE", "region": "North Africa", "mechanism": "state recruitment of Italian colonists and legally durable colonial allotments on annexed land near ruined Carthage (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic and the Gracchan land program", "Colonists recruited across Italy for Junonia; household composition unknown" ], "victims": [ "Prior Carthaginian and African land interests in the annexed allotment zone" ], "summary": "Appian reports recruitment of 6,000 colonists from Italy, not 6,000 families or households. The law of 111 BCE protects continued holdings and transfers. Kim interprets 200 iugera as a maximum, probably for an upper rank, not an equal allotment to every colonist. The figures cannot be multiplied into a distributed footprint; prior holders, resident movement, household composition and total land area remain unknown.", "confidence": "high on implemented allotments, the attributed six-thousand-family recruitment, formal cancellation, continued possession, later legal confirmation, and private transfers; low on exact plot count and size, prior parcel holders, resident movement, centuriated footprint, demographic shares, and the relationship to later refoundations", "sources": [ { "title": "Appian, Civil Wars", "locator": "Junonia recruitment; 6,000 colonists, not families", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_42_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Junonia ruling" }, "url": "https://sourcebooks.web.fordham.edu/ancient/appian-civwars1.asp" }, { "title": "Agrarian law of 111 BCE", "locator": "continued possession, transfers and legal protection", "role": "ancient_epigraphic_law_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_42_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Junonia ruling" } }, { "title": "Kim (2023), Privatization of ager in Africa from 123 to 63 BC", "locator": "200 iugera as maximum, probably upper-rank; no equal-grant multiplication", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_42_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Junonia ruling" }, "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/classical-quarterly/article/privatization-of-ager-in-africa-from-123-to-63-bc/E55AE73CAB86EC1530E0E9F36D6FBE54" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "family_colonist_recruitment_surveyed_allotments_cancellation_and_title_confirmation", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "settler_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-junonia-carthage-land-allotment-123-111", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "gracchan_program_regions | carthage_destruction_and_junonia", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The 6,000-family literary figure and a 200-iugera statutory maximum do not prove 6,000 equal 200-iugera plots; prior parcel holders, resident movement, and the full centuriated footprint remain unresolved" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "Score 3 records family recruitment and heritable allotments while stopping below whole-community transplantation or a documented near-zero return rate." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records systematic colonial re-titling in the Junonia allotment zone without repeating the comprehensive 146 BCE annexation as a new event." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 2 records a partly ruined urban-adjacent and cultivated African landscape rather than a true vacuum or a demonstrated labor-shortage frontier." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 4 records surveyed allotments, statutory confirmation, and legally recognized private transfers operating across the bounded colonial zone." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "Score 2 records legally transferable private allotments after formal cancellation without evidence of a speculative market or routine price series." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 1 records family farm establishment and parcel improvements; no new city-scale reconstruction is attributed to this cancelled colony." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "Score 3 uses the explicit recruitment of families as evidence of family-predominant migration while preserving uncertainty about age and sex ratios." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 2 uses the attributed six thousand families only as a 10,000–100,000 directly moved incoming stream; it is not a count of prior residents displaced under Junonia." }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "Score 4 records the source's explicit family recruitment, not a census-quality demographic table." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the 123–111 BCE allotment program; the 149–146 BCE killing and enslavement remain in the earlier Carthage event." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 preserves the twelve-year recruitment, cancellation, persistence, and title-confirmation sequence." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records legal-administrative allotment on annexed land without importing the armed 146 BCE conquest into this row." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the Junonia allotment program." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a statute-backed colony with specified family recruitment and subsequent legal confirmation; it does not imply a new removal order." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a Roman colonial allotment core beside ruined Carthage while surrounding African population outcomes remain unresolved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records location- and title-based land allocation rather than ascriptive targeting of Carthaginians or Africans." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no killing or removal operation against prior residents during the bounded allotment program." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 4 records dedicated statutory, survey, confirmation, and transfer machinery within the bounded program." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 keeps the 123–111 BCE program inside territory already annexed in 146 BCE rather than counting sovereignty transfer twice." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 3 records surveyed allotments tied to continuing legal confirmation and private title transfer, not merely an abstract foundation notice." } ], "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "One allotment-to-legal-confirmation program; the initiating year is uncertain between 123 and 122. Its 111 endpoint is legal confirmation, not an inferred census date.", "kind": "program_with_alternative_start", "alternative_start_years": [ -123, -122 ], "legal_confirmation": -111 }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 82.0096890302, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.7568304218, "unknown_bound_high": 83.1619987263 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 67.2544221145, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9259243529, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.2725072747, "unknown_bound_high": 69.6800719868 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.0776098405, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1776476332, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8094739787 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0063851275, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3312049575 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 14.0658304497, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7089831509, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 39.0741217005 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 16.8648124809, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.9822962544, "unknown_bound_high": 75.4397427274 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-scolacium-minervia-gracchan-colony-123-122", "name": "Minervia Scolacium colony and territorial centuriation", "start": -123, "end": -122, "date_label": "123–122 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "Gracchan state settlement and survey reorganization of both the urban area and rural territory at older Greek Skylletion (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic and the Gracchan colonial program", "Colonists at Minervia Scolacium" ], "victims": [ "Greek and local residents and landholders of Skylletion affected by urban and rural centuriation" ], "summary": "The colony occupied the earlier Greek site of Skylletion, and official archaeological synthesis describes reorganization of both the urban area and its rural territory through centuriation Evidence limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase", "confidence": "high on the implemented colony, older Greek site, and urban-and-territorial centuriation; low on individual prior holders, resident movement, legal shares, settler count, household composition, population proportions, and any connection to the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: geschkult.fu-berlin.de", "url": "https://www.geschkult.fu-berlin.de/e/klassarch/forschung/projekte/Scolacium/index.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: media.beniculturali.it", "url": "https://media.beniculturali.it/mibac/files/3292/Statuto%20Scolacium.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "gracchan_colony_with_urban_and_rural_centuriation", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-scolacium-minervia-gracchan-colony-123-122", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "gracchan_program_regions", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The evidence does not identify the movement or legal share of existing inhabitants, individual prior holders, or a forced expulsion; the disputed 199 BCE Castrum notice cannot be used as an earlier Scolacium phase" }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records territory-wide urban and rural survey reorganization while leaving individual prior holders, legal shares, and resident movement unresolved." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 2 records community-scale planned urban and rural works tied to the colonial survey, not a later region-scale infrastructure network." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records centuriation and re-planning of an existing rural territory rather than total productive replacement." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded Gracchan foundation and survey process, for which no process deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state settlement and territory-wide property reorganization without a documented armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records an implemented Gracchan program and territory-wide survey reorganization; it does not imply a removal directive against existing inhabitants." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a Roman colonial urban-and-rural grid over the older Greek site while resident continuity and legal shares remain unresolved." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records parcel- and location-based reorganization rather than ascriptive targeting of Greek or local residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records an internal Roman reorganization at a site already under Roman control; any earlier conquest-era sovereignty transfer is not counted again." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 2 records standardized urban and rural centuriation without upgrading survey evidence into an unattested registry or population-control system." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.1864740678, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.6660853481, "unknown_bound_high": 87.0712536525 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 60.730584353, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.0688617342, "unknown_bound_high": 68.2712500251 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4458546387, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 22.845375447 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.7946921254, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-tarentum-neptunia-gracchan-colony-123-122", "name": "Neptunia colony on Tarentine public land", "start": -123, "end": -122, "date_label": "123–122 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "Gracchan state settlement and public-land redivision at the edge of Tarentum with distinct Greek and colonial legal communities later integrated (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic and the Gracchan colonial program", "Colonists at Neptunia" ], "victims": [ "Greek Tarentine residents and land users affected by redivision of ager publicus" ], "summary": "The Gracchan colony was planted on Tarentine ager publicus; archaeological and institutional evidence indicates that colonists settled at the edge of the Greek city and that the colonial and Greek communities coexisted as distinct legal bodies until later integration Evidence limit: The foundation evidence does not identify a 123/122 BCE expulsion, individual prior holders, or how much public land remained in Greek use; the earlier creation of ager publicus must not be duplicated as a second contemporary seizure", "confidence": "high on the implemented colony, public-land setting, edge-of-city settlement, distinct Greek and colonial legal communities, and later integration; low on individual prior holders, exact public-land shares, settler count, household composition, resident movement, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: museotaranto.cultura.gov.it", "url": "https://museotaranto.cultura.gov.it/en/itineraries-and-collections/taranto-after-being-conquered-by-the-romans/" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: cultura.gov.it", "url": "https://cultura.gov.it/comunicato/i-mercoledi-del-marta-conferenza-le-istituzioni-di-taranto-romana-tra-ii-e-i-sec-a-c" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: dokumen.pub", "url": "https://dokumen.pub/public-land-in-the-roman-republic-a-social-and-economic-history-of-ager-publicus-in-italy-396-89-bc-0199577234-9780199577231.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 4: campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/campbell-2000-roman-land-surveyors.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_STANDARD_FOUNDATIONS_194_122_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_standard_foundations_194_122_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "gracchan_public_land_colony_with_distinct_greek_legal_continuity", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-tarentum-neptunia-gracchan-colony-123-122", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "gracchan_program_regions", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The foundation evidence does not identify a 123/122 BCE expulsion, individual prior holders, or how much public land remained in Greek use; the earlier creation of ager publicus must not be duplicated as a second contemporary seizure" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The foundation evidence does not identify a 123/122 BCE expulsion, individual prior holders, or how much public land remained in Greek use; the earlier creation of ager publicus must not be duplicated as a second contemporary seizure" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The foundation evidence does not identify a 123/122 BCE expulsion, individual prior holders, or how much public land remained in Greek use; the earlier creation of ager publicus must not be duplicated as a second contemporary seizure" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The foundation evidence does not identify a 123/122 BCE expulsion, individual prior holders, or how much public land remained in Greek use; the earlier creation of ager publicus must not be duplicated as a second contemporary seizure" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The foundation evidence does not identify a 123/122 BCE expulsion, individual prior holders, or how much public land remained in Greek use; the earlier creation of ager publicus must not be duplicated as a second contemporary seizure" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The foundation evidence does not identify a 123/122 BCE expulsion, individual prior holders, or how much public land remained in Greek use; the earlier creation of ager publicus must not be duplicated as a second contemporary seizure" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The foundation evidence does not identify a 123/122 BCE expulsion, individual prior holders, or how much public land remained in Greek use; the earlier creation of ager publicus must not be duplicated as a second contemporary seizure" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The foundation evidence does not identify a 123/122 BCE expulsion, individual prior holders, or how much public land remained in Greek use; the earlier creation of ager publicus must not be duplicated as a second contemporary seizure" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records the continuing Greek community as part of Tarentum's productive and institutional life rather than an economy designed to exclude local labor." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records redivision of a specific public-land tract while leaving Greek use shares and the earlier conquest-era creation of ager publicus outside this event." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records durable colonial settlement and land redivision followed by legal integration, not replacement or disappearance of the Greek city." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records Greek continuity without treating Tarentines as a separate coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued urban and agrarian use under a redivided public-land regime rather than a new production system." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 0 records coexistence of Greek and colonial legal communities and no contemporary expulsion; it is not a census-derived resident fraction." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no documented resident decline or process deaths in the bounded Gracchan foundation." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated Tarentine removal route." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "Score 4 uses the documented persistence and later legal integration of the Greek community as a membership proxy, not a genetic estimate or precise demographic share." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state public-land redivision and settlement without a documented 123/122 BCE armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 applies to the foundation process, for which no attributable deaths are reported." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records an implemented Gracchan state program directing a named colony and land redivision; it does not imply a removal directive against Tarentines." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records a distinct colonial legal community beside a continuing Greek city until later integration, not region-wide replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime over the Greek community." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records public-land and location-based redivision rather than ascriptive targeting of Greeks." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records an internal reallocation of land already held as Roman ager publicus; the earlier conquest-era sovereignty transfer is deliberately not counted again." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 1 records distinct Greek and colonial legal communities within one polity followed by later integration, not exile, separate subjecthood, or local extinction." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.6660853481, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.6660853481, "unknown_bound_high": 80.6660853481 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.7919317171, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.7643408248, "unknown_bound_high": 38.2874831091 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.343616451, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 52.343616451 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-narbo-martius-colony-volcae-land-118", "name": "Foundation of Narbo Martius on Volcan and Atacine land", "start": -118, "end": -118, "date_label": "118 BCE", "region": "Western Europe", "mechanism": "state civilian colonial settlement and centuriated land reorganization with Atacine citizenship and continuing Indigenous sites (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic", "Italian civilian colonists at Narbo Martius" ], "victims": [ "Volcan and Atacine landholders affected by the delimited colonial territory" ], "summary": "Ancient chronologies date the Roman colony to 118 BCE; modern archaeological and institutional reviews describe a delimited, mostly centuriated colonial territory settled by Italian civilians together with Atacini receiving citizenship, while Montlaures and other Indigenous sites remained occupied Evidence limit: No source identifies an expelled resident population, parcel-by-parcel prior ownership, or an immediate abandonment of Montlaures; the later disappearance of Montlaures belongs near the separate Caesarian deduction rather than the 118 foundation", "confidence": "high on the 118 BCE civilian colony, delimited and mostly centuriated territory, Italian settlement, Atacine citizenship, and continued Indigenous occupation at Montlaures and other sites; low on settler totals, individual prior parcels, household composition, legal shares beyond the Atacini, and population proportions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: books.openedition.org", "url": "https://books.openedition.org/psorbonne/23968?lang=fr" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: perseus.tufts.edu", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.04.0006%3Aentry%3Dnarbo" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: carayon-2018-narbonne-port.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/carayon-2018-narbonne-port.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_LATE_REPUBLIC_RESIDUAL_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_LATE_REPUBLIC_RESIDUAL_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_late_republic_residual_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_late_republic_residual_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "centuriated_civilian_colony_with_indigenous_citizenship_and_site_continuity", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-narbo-martius-colony-volcae-land-118", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "narbo_118_vs_caesarian_deduction", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: No source identifies an expelled resident population, parcel-by-parcel prior ownership, or an immediate abandonment of Montlaures; the later disappearance of Montlaures belongs near the separate Caesarian deduction rather than the 118 foundation" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: No source identifies an expelled resident population, parcel-by-parcel prior ownership, or an immediate abandonment of Montlaures; the later disappearance of Montlaures belongs near the separate Caesarian deduction rather than the 118 foundation" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: No source identifies an expelled resident population, parcel-by-parcel prior ownership, or an immediate abandonment of Montlaures; the later disappearance of Montlaures belongs near the separate Caesarian deduction rather than the 118 foundation" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No source identifies an expelled resident population, parcel-by-parcel prior ownership, or an immediate abandonment of Montlaures; the later disappearance of Montlaures belongs near the separate Caesarian deduction rather than the 118 foundation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: No source identifies an expelled resident population, parcel-by-parcel prior ownership, or an immediate abandonment of Montlaures; the later disappearance of Montlaures belongs near the separate Caesarian deduction rather than the 118 foundation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: No source identifies an expelled resident population, parcel-by-parcel prior ownership, or an immediate abandonment of Montlaures; the later disappearance of Montlaures belongs near the separate Caesarian deduction rather than the 118 foundation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: No source identifies an expelled resident population, parcel-by-parcel prior ownership, or an immediate abandonment of Montlaures; the later disappearance of Montlaures belongs near the separate Caesarian deduction rather than the 118 foundation" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: No source identifies an expelled resident population, parcel-by-parcel prior ownership, or an immediate abandonment of Montlaures; the later disappearance of Montlaures belongs near the separate Caesarian deduction rather than the 118 foundation" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records Indigenous citizenship and site continuity as ordinary membership in the successor landscape rather than a separate coerced labor system." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records a delimited, mostly centuriated colonial territory while continuing Indigenous sites and unknown prior parcels prevent a comprehensive score." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 2 records a continuing Indigenous settlement landscape with colonial land available inside it, not an empty or densely urbanized total landscape." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records citizenship incorporation and continued residence without evidence of a designated dependent-labor caste." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 2 records a planned colonial urban node and centuriated territory as community-scale works, not a later provincial infrastructure network." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 2 records re-planning of an existing agrarian landscape under centuriation while Indigenous sites remained occupied." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 0 uses positive evidence of Atacine incorporation and continuing Indigenous occupation; it is not a census-derived claim that every resident stayed." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the bounded 118 BCE foundation; casualties from the 125–121 BCE conquest campaigns are not imported into this row." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated resident-removal route from the 118 BCE colonial territory." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "Score 4 uses strong Indigenous membership and settlement continuity as a proxy, not a genetic estimate or exact percentage." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state colonial land division inside an already conquered province without a documented 118 BCE armed expulsion." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded foundation process." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a deliberate civilian colony with a delimited, largely centuriated territory; it does not imply a resident-removal directive." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a Roman colonial core while Montlaures and other Indigenous sites remained occupied." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented spatial-control regime over continuing Indigenous communities." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated removal or return bar in 118 BCE." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records location- and title-based land division rather than ascriptive targeting, reinforced by Atacine citizenship incorporation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation in the bounded event." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 keeps the 118 BCE colony inside the already conquered Roman province and leaves the 125–121 BCE sovereignty taking in its separate campaign context." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 0 records ordinary citizenship for the Atacini and continuing Indigenous occupation while not generalizing that status beyond the source-supported group." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 2 records a delimited, mostly centuriated colonial territory without claiming a complete cadastral registry." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.0178324934, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.0178324934, "unknown_bound_high": 83.0178324934 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 60.730584353, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.0688617342, "unknown_bound_high": 68.2712500251 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 68.1601955894, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.8770789181, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.7919317171, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9047685772, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.7643408248, "unknown_bound_high": 38.2874831091 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 52.343616451, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.343616451, "unknown_bound_high": 52.343616451 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-marian-africa-veteran-allotment-program-103-100", "name": "Marian land-allotment program in Africa", "start": -103, "end": -103, "date_label": "103 BCE", "region": "North Africa", "mechanism": "state-law veteran or client land assignment in Africa and at Cercina, represented as one medium-confidence program (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman Republic and Saturninus's agrarian legislation", "Marian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients receiving organized assignments" ], "victims": [ "Unidentified prior holders of the bounded African lands assigned under the program" ], "summary": "A late ancient notice says Saturninus's 103 BCE law assigned African land to Marius's veterans; a damaged Forum of Augustus inscription preserves part of a record of coloni and Cercina; later titles at Uchi Maius, Thibaris, and Thuburnica preserve Marian foundation traditions Evidence limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients", "confidence": "medium on implementation of one organized African land-settlement program; low on geography, mainland site identities, beneficiary identity, parcel boundaries, settler totals, household composition, prior holders, resident movement, production outcomes, and long-term continuity", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: phillips-2013-romans-overseas.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/phillips-2013-romans-overseas.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: kim-2023-privatization-ager-africa.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/kim-2023-privatization-ager-africa.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: biglino-2022-army-movement-people.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/biglino-2022-army-movement-people.pdf" }, { "title": "Primary source 4: mastino-et-al-2004-africa-proconsularis-epigraphy.pdf", "url": "tmp/pdfs/mastino-et-al-2004-africa-proconsularis-epigraphy.pdf" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_LATE_REPUBLIC_RESIDUAL_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_LATE_REPUBLIC_RESIDUAL_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_late_republic_residual_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_late_republic_residual_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "medium_confidence_overseas_veteran_or_client_allotment_program", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-marian-africa-veteran-allotment-program-103-100", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "marian_africa_program", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "The evidence does not support a defensible event-specific persistence judgment rather than a generic inference from later Roman rule. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "The bounded evidence does not establish whether land or labor was the binding factor when the destination economy was organized. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "hdem_destination_saturation", "note": "The source set does not permit a reliable onset-density or political-saturation judgment for the bounded zone. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The law is preserved in a late source, the Cercina text is fragmentary and partly restored, exact parcels and prior holders are unknown, and scholars dispute whether the mainland communities received Italian veterans or Indigenous Gaetulian clients" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "Score 3 records land-assigned colonist communities under the implemented program while beneficiary identity and household composition remain uncertain." }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records assigned veterans or clients without evidence that they captured autonomous territorial government." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records a legislated program assigning specific African land while the parcels, prior holders, and affected share remain unresolved." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 0 refuses to backfill later Marian colony titles into a contemporaneous renaming or priority-erasure program." }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "Score 0 records no identified legally unfree incoming population; military service or client status does not by itself prove inability to refuse settlement." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 0 records no source-supported event-window infrastructure beyond land assignment." }, { "dimension": "pel_strategic_position_weight", "note": "Score 2 records the dual military-service and African land-allotment setting without treating security as the sole demonstrated purpose." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records a law-bounded 103–100 BCE placement program rather than gradual uncontrolled migration." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no documented demographic decline or process deaths in the bounded allotment program." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records implementation inside the source-frozen four-year window." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state land assignment without a demonstrated armed removal of prior African holders." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded program." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records Saturninus's legislation and an organized beneficiary-placement program while leaving local execution uncertain." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records small or uncertain Roman colonial nodes inside a continuing African landscape rather than regional cultural replacement." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records land assignment by location and service category rather than ascriptive targeting of prior residents." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation against prior residents." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records land assignment inside already Roman-controlled Africa rather than a new sovereignty transfer." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 1 records a legislated colonist/allotment program without surviving standardized parcel geometry or a comprehensive registry." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records assigned veterans or clients without a source-supported self-governing settler territorial institution." } ], "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "The African measure is dated 103 BCE; the broader Saturninian legislative sequence through 100 is excluded.", "kind": "bounded_measure" }, "metadata_scope_qualifier": "Cercina is fragmentary evidence; Uchi Maius, Thibaris and Thuburnica have later disputed Marian claims. These are evidence nodes in one low-resolution program, not four events. Beneficiaries may have been Italian veterans, Indigenous Gaetulian clients or a mixture. The reported 100 iugera is a maximum and supplies no total footprint.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "POST_V6_SOURCE_REVIEW_OVERRIDE", "provenance": "post_v6_cutoff_explicit_family_projection_v1:B42-03", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.9778365362, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4058927868, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.2742125235, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6849338484 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 42.8895804332, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6110780084, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 26.208879392, "unknown_bound_high": 65.1010785526 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.2642000451, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7089831509, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 6.5681617388, "unknown_bound_high": 35.6698466467 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-sulla-alban-hills-veteran-occupation", "name": "Reported Sullan military land occupations at Bovillae, Castrimoenium, and Gabii", "start": null, "end": null, "date_label": "After late 82 BCE; exact implementation and duration unknown", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "informal military land occupation or appropriation under a reported Sullan legal frame", "agents": [ "Reported Sullan legal authority; execution chain unestablished", "Veteran soldiers at Bovillae, soldiers at Gabii, and unspecified holders at Castrimoenium" ], "victims": [ "Unidentified prior owners or users of appropriated municipal lands" ], "summary": "Campbell's translation says veteran soldiers held Bovillae land in lots through appropriation, Castrimoenium land was held through appropriation, and Gabii land was assessed to soldiers on the basis of appropriation; a 2025 source-specific review groups the three as informal military occupation rather than formal public-law allotment Evidence limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession", "confidence": "medium on one linked three-node Sullan military occupation and appropriation event; low on field-grid dates, prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, settler numbers, household composition, duration, and long-term demographic balance", "sources": [ { "title": "Anonymous, Liber coloniarum, printed and translated by Campbell", "locator": "Bovillae, Castrimoenium and Gabii notices; anonymous late layered compilation, not Hyginus", "role": "late_ancient_compilation_in_modern_edition", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_43_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Bovillae, Castrimoenium, and Gabii ruling" }, "url": "https://archaeologydataservice.ac.uk/library/browse/issue.xhtml?recordId=1161463" }, { "title": "Campbell, source-critical discussion of the land surveyors", "locator": "field systems do not independently establish Sullan dates; possible later regularization", "role": "modern_source_criticism", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_43_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Bovillae, Castrimoenium, and Gabii ruling" }, "url": "https://archaeologydataservice.ac.uk/library/browse/issue.xhtml?recordId=1161463" }, { "title": "Spadavecchia (2025), source-specific interpretation", "locator": "informal military occupation; not another ancient witness", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_43_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Bovillae, Castrimoenium, and Gabii ruling" }, "url": "https://ese-journals.unisalento.it/index.php/quadernilupiensi/article/download/32630/26547" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "three_node_informal_military_appropriation_with_municipal_continuity", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-sulla-alban-hills-veteran-occupation", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "sullan_program_children", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "The evidence does not establish household composition, return behavior, or the degree of self-reproducing permanent settlement. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "The evidence does not support a defensible event-specific persistence judgment rather than a generic inference from later Roman rule. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "The evidence does not establish either substantial return or a durable prohibition on return. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The late land-surveyor compilation is source-critical; the field grids cannot be independently dated to Sulla; no clause identifies prior owners, parcels, acreage, resident movement, full replacement, or the duration of possession" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_sovereignty_capture", "note": "Score 0 records military landholders without evidence of autonomous territorial government." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records appropriation of named municipal tracts while prior owners, acreage, and wider shares remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 0 records no renaming or priority-erasure claim." }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_agency_locus", "note": "Score 1 records soldier appropriation inside a Sullan fortification framework rather than direct parcel assignment by a central land office." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 0 records occupied municipal territory rather than an open frontier." }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "Score 0 records no identified unfree incoming group; military service does not by itself prove inability to refuse landholding." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 1 records occupation or appropriation under a Sullan framework without formal public-law parcel adjudication." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 2 records fortification of the linked municipal nodes as community-scale strategic works." }, { "dimension": "pel_organizing_agent_locus", "note": "Score 3 records state-framed but soldier-executed occupation rather than a fully administered allotment program." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the bounded 82–78 BCE military occupation window." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no documented demographic decline or process deaths." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the bounded occupation inside roughly four years." }, { "dimension": "hdem_stream_coordination", "note": "Score 3 records organized military-group occupation without source-supported state quotas or transport." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records appropriation backed by military authority without a documented armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded occupation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_perpetrator_state_centrality", "note": "Score 3 records Sullan legal-period and fortification support with local soldier execution." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 2 records military appropriation under Sullan intervention but no surviving central parcel directive." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records military landholding inside continuing municipalities." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records tract-based appropriation rather than ascriptive targeting." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 1 records informal appropriation later associated with Sullan authority rather than dedicated parcel law." }, { "dimension": "ssi_carrier_centralization", "note": "Score 3 records a state-sponsored military occupation executed through soldiers rather than a direct central land agency." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legal_instrumentation_depth", "note": "Score 1 records Sullan framing and fortification notices without formal parcel-level instruments." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records internal Roman military land occupation." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 1 records fortification and land assessment without an independently dated standardized grid." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records directed military landholders rather than a self-governing colonial polity." }, { "dimension": "ssi_boundary_hardening", "note": "Score 2 records fortified internal nodes with differentiated military claims, not a sealed population border." } ], "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Three parallel late-source occupation notices receive one source-resolution grouping, not a synchronized 82–78 operation.", "kind": "undated_after_context", "after": -82, "ordering_only": { "value": -82, "use": "ordering_only_not_historical" } }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 74.8867513324, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3016292702, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.5880361502, "unknown_bound_high": 92.4251091327 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 33.9522605077, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2244302622, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.6199147288, "unknown_bound_high": 85.1768885066 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 49.5438237506, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2189307396, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.8466659777, "unknown_bound_high": 88.9535920149 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.4665196136, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5728121488, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.5681617388, "unknown_bound_high": 49.2869468618 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-sulla-arretium-82-60", "name": "Sullan colony and unresolved land confiscation at Arretium", "start": null, "end": null, "date_label": "After late 82 BCE; colonists attested by 63 BCE, unresolved land recorded in 60 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state publicatio, incomplete land distribution, and same-location colonist/resident co-presence", "agents": [ "Sullan Roman state", "Sullan colonists at Arretium" ], "victims": [ "Old Arretine residents and landholders affected by partially implemented confiscation" ], "summary": "Sullan colonists formed a distinct community at Arretium, but a substantial part of the land Sulla legally confiscated remained undivided and in local possession by 60 BCE Evidence limit: The distributed share, affected parcels, colonist number, and relationship between the later Arretini groups are uncertain; later Caesarian settlers must remain a separate phase", "confidence": "high on legal confiscation, a distinct Sullan settler community, incomplete distribution, and substantial local possession by 60 BCE; low on distributed share, parcels, colonist number, household composition, later group identities, and the boundary with Caesarian settlement", "sources": [ { "title": "Cicero, Pro Murena", "locator": "49; colonist presence by 63 BCE", "role": "ancient_text", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_44_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" }, "url": "https://www.attalus.org/cicero/murena.html" }, { "title": "Cicero, Ad Atticum", "locator": "1.19.4; place-name variant; publicatio and incomplete distribution, not known veteran allotment", "role": "ancient_text_with_variant", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_44_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" }, "url": "https://www.attalus.org/cicero/atticus1.html" }, { "title": "Pliny, Natural History", "locator": "3.52; three names, with community mapping a modern reconstruction", "role": "ancient_text", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_44_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" } } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "partial_legal_confiscation_distinct_veteran_community_and_substantial_local_possession", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-sulla-arretium-82-60", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "sullan_program_children | caesarian_parent_boundary", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The distributed share, affected parcels, colonist number, and relationship between the later Arretini groups are uncertain; later Caesarian settlers must remain a separate phase" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The distributed share, affected parcels, colonist number, and relationship between the later Arretini groups are uncertain; later Caesarian settlers must remain a separate phase" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The distributed share, affected parcels, colonist number, and relationship between the later Arretini groups are uncertain; later Caesarian settlers must remain a separate phase" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The distributed share, affected parcels, colonist number, and relationship between the later Arretini groups are uncertain; later Caesarian settlers must remain a separate phase" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The distributed share, affected parcels, colonist number, and relationship between the later Arretini groups are uncertain; later Caesarian settlers must remain a separate phase" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The distributed share, affected parcels, colonist number, and relationship between the later Arretini groups are uncertain; later Caesarian settlers must remain a separate phase" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The distributed share, affected parcels, colonist number, and relationship between the later Arretini groups are uncertain; later Caesarian settlers must remain a separate phase" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The distributed share, affected parcels, colonist number, and relationship between the later Arretini groups are uncertain; later Caesarian settlers must remain a separate phase" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The distributed share, affected parcels, colonist number, and relationship between the later Arretini groups are uncertain; later Caesarian settlers must remain a separate phase" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The distributed share, affected parcels, colonist number, and relationship between the later Arretini groups are uncertain; later Caesarian settlers must remain a separate phase" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records substantial local possession and co-residence without evidence of a dependent-labor caste." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records the implemented portion of confiscation while substantial undivided land remained locally possessed." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 3 records a durable distinct Sullan community and incomplete local taking while excluding the later Caesarian phase." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records old Arretine continuity without a coerced labor regime." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records legal confiscation and partial colonial distribution without treating intended but undivided land as transferred." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued agrarian use through a partial title change." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 1 records localized implemented dispossession constrained by substantial local possession; it is not a measured percentage." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable demographic decline or process deaths in the bounded land-settlement sequence." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 preserves the 82–60 BCE implementation and nonimplementation evidence window." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated old-Arretine removal route." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records legal confiscation and partial settlement without a documented armed resident-removal operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded settlement process." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a deliberate Sullan confiscation and settlement program while implementation remained partial." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records a distinct colonist community alongside substantial old-resident continuity." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no spatial confinement regime." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or durable return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete resident-removal episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records factional and property-based targeting rather than ascriptive identity." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented sex-selective operation." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records internal Roman confiscation and settlement rather than a new sovereignty transfer." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 1 records old residents sharing the municipality with a distinct Sullan community under unequal property outcomes." }, { "dimension": "ssi_boundary_hardening", "note": "Score 2 records distinct old and new Arretine communities without a sealed physical boundary." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 3 records a consolidated but incomplete Sullan property order with continuing local claims." } ], "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "One Sullan transition after late 82 with evidence in 63 and 60, not continuous activity through 60.", "kind": "transition_with_later_evidence", "after": -82, "evidence_years": [ -63, -60 ] }, "metadata_scope_qualifier": "Cicero's Pro Murena directly supports colonists by 63 BCE. The accepted Arretine reading of Ad Atticum 1.19.4 supports publicatio, incomplete division and continued possession, but its place-name variant must remain visible; known veteran allotment is not directly attested. Mapping Pliny's three names to old, Sullan and Caesarian communities is modern reconstruction. Later Caesarian settlement remains separate.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 73.177240327, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.7335268725, "unknown_bound_high": 74.8060617681 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 43.9255659206, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7152964327, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 31.4198006073, "unknown_bound_high": 59.8901573373 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.9804454801, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0940476491 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 47.2272490103, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5525527387, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.0955457823, "unknown_bound_high": 70.8402719114 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.9043661716, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8377125375, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 26.201183046 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 16.8648124809, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.9822962544, "unknown_bound_high": 75.4397427274 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-sulla-faesulae-82-78", "name": "Sullan veteran settlement and the Faesulan land revolt", "start": null, "end": -78, "date_label": "Settlement before 78 BCE; revolt in 78 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "veteran implantation, resident home displacement and revolt in 78 BCE, with probable recovery or attempted recovery dependent on textual emendation", "agents": [ "Sullan Roman state", "Sullan veteran settlers at Faesulae" ], "victims": [ "Faesulan rural residents driven from homes; later recovery or attempted recovery is a textually qualified reconstruction" ], "summary": "Sullan veterans occupied fortified settlements on Faesulan land; in 78 the dispossessed attacked, killed some colonists, and probably recovered or attempted to recover land, a reconstruction dependent on emending reddiderunt to receperunt, while arguing that rural residents had been driven from their homes Evidence limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event", "confidence": "high on veteran fortified holdings, resident dispossession, the 78 BCE attack, some colonist deaths, and land recovery; low on the original date, numbers, parcel shares, household composition, and the post-78 demographic and ownership balance", "sources": [ { "title": "Granius Licinianus", "locator": "Faesulan revolt/recovery passage; reddiderunt/receperunt distinction", "role": "ancient_text_with_emendation", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_44_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" }, "url": "https://www.attalus.org/translate/granius.html" }, { "title": "Cicero, Pro Murena", "locator": "Faesulan settlement evidence", "role": "ancient_text", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_44_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" }, "url": "https://www.attalus.org/cicero/murena.html" }, { "title": "Bianchi, textual-emendation study", "locator": "control for reddiderunt/receperunt; source packet supplies full work/edition", "role": "modern_textual_criticism_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_44_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" } }, { "title": "Thein, source-critical scholarship", "locator": "modern interpretation; not additional ancient testimony; full work reference in prepared source packet", "role": "modern_source_reference_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_44_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" } }, { "title": "Santangelo, The Impact of Sulla on Italy and the Mediterranean World", "locator": "modern source criticism; not additional ancient testimony", "role": "modern_source_reference_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_44_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" } } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "fortified_veteran_occupation_resident_dispossession_and_early_land_recovery", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "settler_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-sulla-faesulae-82-78", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "sullan_program_children", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The original allotment date, numbers on either side, parcels recovered, and post-78 settlement balance are unknown; later Catilinarian participation is context rather than a new removal event" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records resident recovery and later co-presence without evidence of a dependent-labor system." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records specific veteran holdings and residents driven from homes while the parcels and overall affected share remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 2 records material early reversal through resident land recovery while an uncertain veteran residue remained." }, { "dimension": "pel_frontier_land_labor_ratio", "note": "Score 1 records occupied rural land with no demonstrated open-resource or labor-shortage condition." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records resident recovery rather than organization as coerced labor." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 2 records fortified veteran settlements as community-scale strategic works." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued rural production through ownership changes and partial recovery." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 applies to the dispossessed Faesulan residents, whose documented change was removal and recovery rather than attributed killing; colonist deaths during reversal are flagged separately." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records occupation, dispossession, and recovery inside roughly four years." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 1 records short-radius displacement from rural homes followed by local land recovery." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records military veteran occupation that drove rural residents from homes." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a state veteran-settlement program and fortified holdings." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records fortified veteran cores in Faesulan territory before partial resident recovery." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no documented confinement regime at residents' temporary destinations." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 1 records documented land recovery within four years." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 2 records a multi-year dispossession-and-recovery sequence rather than one custodial operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records political and property-based targeting rather than ascriptive identity." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no sex-selective resident-removal rule." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records an internal Roman veteran settlement rather than a new sovereignty transfer." }, { "dimension": "ssi_boundary_hardening", "note": "Score 2 records fortified veteran holdings as demarcated internal zones with differentiated claims." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 2 records a contested equilibrium after residents recovered land and some veteran occupation may have persisted." } ], "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "One reversible settlement/dispossession/revolt event. A precise 82/81 local foundation date and a four-year duration are not established.", "kind": "undated_settlement_then_dated_revolt", "revolt_year": -78 }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": null, "primary_family_review": { "status": "EVIDENCE_HOLD", "provenance": "post_v6_cutoff_explicit_family_projection_v1:B44-02", "evidence_hold": true, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.0906664919, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.28785817, "unknown_bound_high": 80.3603930656 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 49.5432597363, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7152964327, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 35.4381169537, "unknown_bound_high": 63.9084736837 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 57.5290276603, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.3199344684, "unknown_bound_high": 87.9517608139 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.9812438492, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5525527387, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.2479060374, "unknown_bound_high": 78.9926321666 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 26.0906979253, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 52.4630949518 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 8.1018240267, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.3934856997, "unknown_bound_high": 72.8509321728 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-sulla-neapolis-massacre-82", "name": "Sullan night entry and reported massacre at Neapolis", "start": -82, "end": -82, "date_label": "82 BCE; exact date unknown", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "organized night entry, reported extensive killing and fleet seizure; later urban continuity remains visible", "agents": [ "Sullan Roman division entering Neapolis" ], "victims": [ "Neapolitan inhabitants killed in the city and the few reported escapees" ], "summary": "Appian says a Sullan division entered Neapolis at night, killed the inhabitants except for a few escapees, and seized the city's triremes Evidence limit: Appian's near-total formulation is not a demographic census; the attackers, victim number, property disposition, and speed and sources of repopulation are not fully recoverable", "confidence": "high on Appian's night entry, killing claim, few escapees, and seizure of the city and fleet; low on attacker identity, victim totals, exact property distribution, the demographic accuracy of near-total language, and the speed and sources of later repopulation", "sources": [ { "title": "Appian, Civil Wars", "locator": "82 BCE Neapolis night attack; sole located ancient narrative for the attack; totalizing formulation is not a census", "role": "late_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_44_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Appian/Civil_Wars/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Princeton Encyclopedia of Classical Sites, Neapolis", "locator": "modern reference and later urban context, not primary ancient corroboration", "role": "modern_reference", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_44_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" }, "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.04.0006%3Aentry%3Dneapolis-3" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "night_entry_near_total_killing_city_and_fleet_seizure_with_later_urban_continuity", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-sulla-neapolis-massacre-82", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "sullan_program_children", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Appian's near-total formulation is not a demographic census; the attackers, victim number, property disposition, and speed and sources of repopulation are not fully recoverable" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Appian's near-total formulation is not a demographic census; the attackers, victim number, property disposition, and speed and sources of repopulation are not fully recoverable" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Appian's near-total formulation is not a demographic census; the attackers, victim number, property disposition, and speed and sources of repopulation are not fully recoverable" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Appian's near-total formulation is not a demographic census; the attackers, victim number, property disposition, and speed and sources of repopulation are not fully recoverable" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Appian's near-total formulation is not a demographic census; the attackers, victim number, property disposition, and speed and sources of repopulation are not fully recoverable" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Appian's near-total formulation is not a demographic census; the attackers, victim number, property disposition, and speed and sources of repopulation are not fully recoverable" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Appian's near-total formulation is not a demographic census; the attackers, victim number, property disposition, and speed and sources of repopulation are not fully recoverable" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Survivors' legal-political status one generation later cannot be isolated for this event unit. Case limit: Appian's near-total formulation is not a demographic census; the attackers, victim number, property disposition, and speed and sources of repopulation are not fully recoverable" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming settler stream in the bounded massacre-and-seizure event." }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records no successor settler economy dependent on Neapolitan labor." }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 2 records attributed mass killing and the flight of a few escapees." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 1 records de facto city seizure without a documented legal title-transfer apparatus." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 0 records no renaming or emptiness narrative." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 2 records temporary severe demographic rupture followed by later urban continuity rather than durable empty-city replacement." }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming settler population." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records no successor labor regime." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 0 records seizure by armed entry without a source-supported title instrument." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 0 records seizure of an existing city rather than new investment." }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "Score 0 records no successor production program." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 0 records seizure of the standing city and fleet rather than a reconstructed new economy." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 3 records Appian's attributed near-total resident loss constrained by explicit escapees and later urban continuity; it is not treated as a census." }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming settler population." }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming stream." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the one-night destructive pulse." }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "Score 0 records no settler population." }, { "dimension": "hdem_stream_coordination", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming stream." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records organized armed entry and killing without custodial deportation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 2 records a local military entry and massacre with no surviving comprehensive central plan." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records Sullan political control of the existing city without a successor cultural-replacement program." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no confinement regime." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 1 records later urban recovery sufficient to rule out permanent foreclosure while the identity and share of returnees remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records population destruction and escape in a single operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records wartime city and political-allegiance targeting rather than ascriptive identity." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 0 records force-based seizure without a legal transfer instrument." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legal_instrumentation_depth", "note": "Score 0 records military seizure without a surviving legal re-titling system." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records civil-war seizure inside Roman Italy." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 0 records no survey, registry, or standardized successor settlement." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records no settler polity." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.9353824157, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.352574237, "unknown_bound_high": 92.4251091327 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 17.7585087274, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2985059093, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.3010197962, "unknown_bound_high": 75.450428862 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 61.334428361, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6477841616, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9530550949 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 37.5544730669, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.8147486374, "unknown_bound_high": 67.0520628127 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-sulla-norba-destruction-82", "name": "Norba's seizure by treachery, resident self-destruction, and urban abandonment", "start": null, "end": null, "date_label": "82/81 BCE; exact year uncertain", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "armed resistance and treacherous entry, resident self- and mutual killing, burning, and urban-site abandonment", "agents": [ "Sullan Roman forces entering Norba by treachery" ], "victims": [ "Norban inhabitants who killed themselves or one another and burned the town after armed entry by treachery" ], "summary": "After Sullan forces entered by treachery, inhabitants killed themselves or one another and burned the town; no booty remained, and the ancient urban site was not durably restored Evidence limit: The narrative's dramatic totality and motives cannot be treated as a census; the attackers did not themselves perform every death, and later use near the site must not be erased", "confidence": "high on attempted Sullan seizure, resident self-destruction, burning, absence of booty, and durable nonrestoration of the ancient town; low on the narrative's demographic totality, motives of every resident, later use near the site, and any property beneficiary", "sources": [ { "title": "Appian, Civil Wars", "locator": "Norba treacherous entry and resident self-destruction; exact year unstated", "role": "late_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_45_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Appian/Civil_Wars/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Santangelo, The Impact of Sulla on Italy and the Mediterranean World", "locator": "urban nonrestoration and neighboring landscape context", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_45_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/santangelo-2006-impact-of-sulla.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "attempted_treacherous_capture_coerced_resident_self_destruction_and_durable_abandonment", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-sulla-norba-destruction-82", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "sullan_program_children", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The narrative's dramatic totality and motives cannot be treated as a census; the attackers did not themselves perform every death, and later use near the site must not be erased" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: The narrative's dramatic totality and motives cannot be treated as a census; the attackers did not themselves perform every death, and later use near the site must not be erased" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The narrative's dramatic totality and motives cannot be treated as a census; the attackers did not themselves perform every death, and later use near the site must not be erased" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: The narrative's dramatic totality and motives cannot be treated as a census; the attackers did not themselves perform every death, and later use near the site must not be erased" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: The narrative's dramatic totality and motives cannot be treated as a census; the attackers did not themselves perform every death, and later use near the site must not be erased" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming settler stream." }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records no successor settler economy." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 1 records de facto clearance and abandonment without a legal re-titling apparatus." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 0 records no successor renaming or emptiness doctrine." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 4 records durable nonrestoration of the ancient urban site, not a claim that the wider landscape was never reused." }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming settler population." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records no successor labor regime." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 0 records no legal title-transfer instrument." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "Score 0 records no booty or successor land market." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 0 records no successor built project." }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "Score 0 records no successor production program." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 4 records withdrawal of the ancient urban site from its prior civic and productive role." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 4 records the source's attributed near-total end of the resident urban community plus durable abandonment, while its dramatic totality remains explicitly non-census evidence." }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming settler population." }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming stream." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the single capture-and-burning pulse." }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "Score 0 records no settler population." }, { "dimension": "hdem_stream_coordination", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming stream." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records death and local site abandonment rather than a demonstrated survivor-removal route." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records imminent organized armed seizure as the coercive cause while preserving that residents performed the immediate self-destruction." }, { "dimension": "gfm_subsistence_destruction", "note": "Score 3 records comprehensive burning of the town under siege conditions." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 2 records a planned seizure but not a Sullan plan ordering resident self-killing or town burning." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 0 records no successor settler or cultural pattern imposed on the abandoned site." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no confinement regime." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 2 records durable nonreturn to a destroyed urban site without a formal legal bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records resident destruction and abandonment in a single operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records wartime stronghold and allegiance targeting rather than ascriptive identity." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 0 records no legal expropriation or completed booty transfer." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legal_instrumentation_depth", "note": "Score 0 records military seizure without legal land machinery." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records civil-war seizure inside Roman Italy." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 4 records no continuing resident civic community at the ancient town site after destruction." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 0 records no standardized successor reorganization." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records no settler polity." } ], "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Appian supplies sequence, not an exact year; 82/81 are alternatives and −82 is retained only for ordering.", "kind": "alternative_dates", "alternatives": [ -82, -81 ], "ordering_only": { "value": -82, "use": "ordering_only_not_historical" } }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.352574237, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.352574237, "unknown_bound_high": 86.352574237 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.0739718587, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5091338295, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.6015983823, "unknown_bound_high": 52.6882154302 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.2770846054, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.2770846054, "unknown_bound_high": 69.2770846054 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 45.2019955588, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 71.0871010785 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-sulla-praeneste-82-80", "name": "Praeneste massacre, confiscated holdings, and veteran colony", "start": -82, "end": null, "date_label": "82 BCE; veteran colony established afterward, exact date unknown", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state-supervised sex-selective mass killing, confiscation of holdings, and veteran settlement with women, children, survivors, and later local families remaining visible (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Sulla and the Sullan Roman state", "Sullan veteran colonists at Praeneste" ], "victims": [ "Praenestine male inhabitants killed after surrender and local families affected by confiscation" ], "summary": "After Praeneste surrendered, Sulla supervised a severe killing of male inhabitants; women and children were spared, a veteran colony followed, and later evidence shows concentrated ownership and surviving or returning local families Evidence limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown", "confidence": "high on surrender, severe killing directed at male inhabitants, the sparing of women and children, confiscation, veteran settlement, concentrated later ownership, and local survivor or return continuity; low on victim share, settler count, allotment map, household composition, and the identity of every later family", "sources": [ { "title": "Appian, Civil Wars", "locator": "Praeneste group-specific killing narrative; women and children spared", "role": "late_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_45_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Appian/Civil_Wars/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Santangelo, The Impact of Sulla on Italy and the Mediterranean World", "locator": "modern source criticism, chronology and later-continuity context", "role": "modern_specialist_reference_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_45_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" } }, { "title": "Thein, Sullan settlement and confiscation scholarship", "locator": "modern source criticism; precise work reference supplied by prepared source packet", "role": "modern_specialist_reference_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_45_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Finding-by-finding adjudication" } } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "male_massacre_confiscation_veteran_colony_and_local_survivor_continuity", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "settler_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-sulla-praeneste-82-80", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "sullan_program_children", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: Appian's totalizing language and ancient figures are not a census; the exact victim share, allotment map, settler count, and identity of every later family remain unknown" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records women, children, surviving or returning local families, and colonists inside the successor community without a documented dependent-labor system." }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 2 records a killing campaign plus juridical-property dispossession; it does not convert uncertain survivor movement into a third demonstrated transfer mode." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records severe confiscation and concentrated successor ownership while exact parcels and retained local claims remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records local survivor continuity without evidence of a coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records veteran colonial allotment after confiscation without a reconstructed complete cadastre." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued use of Praenestine land under concentrated new ownership rather than a new economy." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the 82–80 BCE surrender, killing, confiscation, and settlement pulse." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records organized killing and armed control after surrender without a documented custodial deportation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records Sulla's direct supervision of punishment and a deliberate veteran-settlement program." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a veteran-colonial property core alongside surviving or returning local families." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 1 records later survivor or family recovery sufficient to rule out permanent foreclosure while the recovered share remains unknown." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 3 records acute killing and property displacement inside roughly two years." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records political and surrender-context targeting rather than an inescapable descent category." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 3 records systematic killing of male inhabitants while women and children were explicitly spared." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records confiscation tied to a dedicated veteran-colony program." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records punitive reorganization inside Roman Italy rather than a new sovereignty transfer." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 1 records surviving local families inside a veteran-colonial order with documented property concentration, not full extinction or equal shares." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 3 records a consolidated veteran land order alongside surviving or returning local claimant families." } ], "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "One linked punishment/colonial-consequence event; 82 dates the punishment, while 80 is not a secure colony endpoint.", "kind": "dated_action_undated_following_consequence", "punishment_year": -82 }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.069981708, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.069981708, "unknown_bound_high": 85.069981708 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 54.6359047752, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.144506194, "unknown_bound_high": 63.3468944849 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.9804454801, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0940476491 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 66.9432726552, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5525527387, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.9896886437, "unknown_bound_high": 81.7344147729 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 61.9797011026, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.8854282839, "unknown_bound_high": 80.4404749901 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 8.1018240267, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.3934856997, "unknown_bound_high": 72.8509321728 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-sulla-proscriptions-82-81", "name": "Sullan proscriptions: killing, banishment, and confiscated estates", "start": -82, "end": -81, "date_label": "82–81 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state proscription lists joining killing and banishment to confiscation, sale or transfer of houses and estates, and descendant civic disability (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Sulla and the Sullan Roman state", "Purchasers and transferees of proscribed property" ], "victims": [ "Named and unnamed proscribed opponents, their banished survivors, and legally disabled descendants" ], "summary": "Named and unnamed opponents were killed or banished; their houses and estates were confiscated and sold or transferred, while descendants faced civic disabilities. Evidence limit: Ancient totals and list boundaries are partisan and incomplete; the register cannot map every estate, victim, beneficiary, or locality, and community-level settlement outcomes require separate children", "confidence": "high on the national proscription mechanism, killing, banishment, formal confiscation, auctions or transfers, and descendant disabilities; low on total list boundaries, victim counts, every estate, locality, destination, purchaser, and community-level demographic outcome", "sources": [ { "title": "Appian, Civil Wars", "locator": "Sullan proscriptions; transmitted totals and list boundaries are not a census", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_46_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## LLM Artifact Tells and Calibration adjudication" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Appian/Civil_Wars/1%2A.html" }, { "title": "Plutarch, Life of Sulla", "locator": "proscriptions; distinguish source dependency and scope", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_46_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## LLM Artifact Tells and Calibration adjudication" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Plutarch/Lives/Sulla%2A.html" }, { "title": "Santangelo, The Impact of Sulla on Italy and the Mediterranean World", "locator": "modern synthesis, not an independent ancient witness", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_46_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## LLM Artifact Tells and Calibration adjudication" }, "url": "tmp/pdfs/santangelo-2006-impact-of-sulla.pdf" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "national_killing_banishment_estate_confiscation_auction_and_descendant_disability", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-sulla-proscriptions-82-81", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "sullan_program_children", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: Ancient totals and list boundaries are partisan and incomplete; the register cannot map every estate, victim, beneficiary, or locality, and community-level settlement outcomes require separate children" }, { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "The source lacks both a pre-event population denominator and a reliable one-generation resident count. Case limit: Ancient totals and list boundaries are partisan and incomplete; the register cannot map every estate, victim, beneficiary, or locality, and community-level settlement outcomes require separate children" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: Ancient totals and list boundaries are partisan and incomplete; the register cannot map every estate, victim, beneficiary, or locality, and community-level settlement outcomes require separate children" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Ancient totals and list boundaries are partisan and incomplete; the register cannot map every estate, victim, beneficiary, or locality, and community-level settlement outcomes require separate children" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Ancient totals and list boundaries are partisan and incomplete; the register cannot map every estate, victim, beneficiary, or locality, and community-level settlement outcomes require separate children" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Ancient totals and list boundaries are partisan and incomplete; the register cannot map every estate, victim, beneficiary, or locality, and community-level settlement outcomes require separate children" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Ancient totals and list boundaries are partisan and incomplete; the register cannot map every estate, victim, beneficiary, or locality, and community-level settlement outcomes require separate children" }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "The surviving evidence does not support a sex-selective targeting judgment. Case limit: Ancient totals and list boundaries are partisan and incomplete; the register cannot map every estate, victim, beneficiary, or locality, and community-level settlement outcomes require separate children" }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_polity_stateness", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: Ancient totals and list boundaries are partisan and incomplete; the register cannot map every estate, victim, beneficiary, or locality, and community-level settlement outcomes require separate children" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "Score 0 records no coherent incoming settler population; purchasers and transferees are property beneficiaries, not one migration stream." }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records no successor settler economy dependent on a retained victim labor category." }, { "dimension": "scs_transfer_mode_multiplicity", "note": "Score 3 records killing, physical banishment, and juridical-civic erasure through descendant disabilities." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 3 records systematic confiscation of targeted houses and estates without treating all Italian tenure as extinguished." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 0 records no settler indigeneity, emptiness doctrine, or systematic toponymic erasure." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 2 records major estate transfers and temporary descendant disabilities followed by later political restoration." }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "Score 0 records no coherent incoming settler stream." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records no structured post-transfer victim labor role." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 4 records named lists, formal confiscation, sale or transfer, and state processing of targeted houses and estates." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "Score 4 records mass liquidation and auction of confiscated property within the event window." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 0 records transfer of existing property rather than new fixed investment." }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "Score 0 records no successor export-production program." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 0 records transfer of existing houses and estates as going concerns rather than a new production system." }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "Score 0 records no coherent incoming settler population." }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming stream." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 4 records the 82–81 BCE list, killing, banishment, and transfer pulse." }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "Score 0 records no settler population." }, { "dimension": "hdem_stream_coordination", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming migration stream." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 3 records organized state killing and banishment without a single custodial deportation operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 4 records a written-list mechanism with identified targets and operative killing, banishment, confiscation, and disability consequences." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 2 records a Sullan political-property order imposed across targeted estates without a cultural-replacement program." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records banishment beyond the polity rather than a spatial confinement regime at destination." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 3 records formal banishment and civic disabilities followed by meaningful later restoration after regime change." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 3 records acute killing, banishment, and estate loss across roughly two years." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records individual political-list and conduct targeting rather than an inescapable descent category, despite hereditary disabilities." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 4 records a comprehensive proscription, confiscation, and transfer bureaucracy." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legal_instrumentation_depth", "note": "Score 4 records instruments simultaneously altering persons' civic standing and their property rights." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records an internal political purge rather than territorial sovereignty transfer." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 3 records banishment and civic exclusion of victims and descendants from ordinary membership." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 4 records identity lists tied directly to killing eligibility, civic disability, and property transfer." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records no settler polity." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 2 records large property transfers alongside later reversal of the proscription political order." } ], "metadata_scope_qualifier": "Rome and Roman Italy: one person-and-property proscription system, with Rome as policy/list hub and Ameria as illustrative property evidence only. Exclude community punishments and soldier colonies. 1 June 81 BCE is the best-attested legal cutoff, not the end of every pursuit, killing, transfer, litigation or disability.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.3479488932, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8899309195, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.5041240345, "unknown_bound_high": 82.5110320894 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 58.3327982038, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 58.3327982038, "unknown_bound_high": 58.3327982038 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8921511443, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 10.784885574 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 66.9432726552, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5525527387, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.9896886437, "unknown_bound_high": 81.7344147729 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 43.3042973789, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.8485103746, "unknown_bound_high": 70.08582455 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-sulla-volaterrae-82-45", "name": "Volaterrae: legal confiscation without completed distribution", "start": -79, "end": -79, "date_label": "c. 79 BCE; title remained contested through 46/45 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "formal conversion of land title to public land, attempted civic-status deprivation, incomplete distribution and continued possession", "agents": [ "Sullan authority responsible for the c. 79 BCE legal-land action" ], "victims": [ "Volaterran citizens and possessors affected by formal land-title deprivation while largely remaining in possession; attempted citizenship deprivation did not durably succeed" ], "summary": "Sulla attempted civic-status deprivation and declared Volaterran territory public; citizenship deprivation did not durably succeed, but the intended distribution was not completed; former possessors remained on the land and later proposals repeatedly threatened the unresolved status Evidence limit: No source identifies a completed Sullan colony, the share ever distributed, or every possessor; later interventions in 63, 59, and 45 BCE are outcome evidence rather than proof of a completed Sullan settlement", "confidence": "high on citizenship deprivation, whole-territory legal confiscation, failed distribution, continued possession, and repeated later threats; low on any distributed share, complete possessor list, individual legal outcomes, and the relationship to later interventions", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: attalus.org", "url": "https://www.attalus.org/cicero/atticus1.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: SULLAN_VETERAN_SETTLEMENT_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/SULLAN_VETERAN_SETTLEMENT_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: SULLAN_PUNISHMENT_SIBLING_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/SULLAN_PUNISHMENT_SIBLING_REVIEW.md" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "outside_broad_parent_scope_addition", "roman_coding_pattern": "citizenship_deprivation_whole_territory_legal_confiscation_and_failed_distribution", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-sulla-volaterrae-82-45", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "sullan_program_children | caesarian_parent_boundary", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "pel_unfree_incomer_share", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so an unfree-incomer share is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer household composition is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_influx_tempo", "note": "No incoming population stream exists in this bounded event, so incomer influx tempo is structurally inapplicable." }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "Score 0 records no completed incoming veteran or settler stream." }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records the prior possessors continuing their own production rather than laboring for an incoming regime." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 4 records comprehensive legal conversion of Volaterrae's territory to public land, while physical possession and intended distribution remained unresolved." }, { "dimension": "scs_symbolic_indigenization", "note": "Score 0 records no renaming or emptiness narrative." }, { "dimension": "scs_structural_persistence", "note": "Score 2 records an unresolved legal confiscation repeatedly threatened but materially frustrated by continued possession." }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming settler population." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records continued local possession and production, not a new dependent-labor role." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 2 records a whole-territory legal declaration without completed parcel distribution." }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "Score 0 records public-land conversion without completed alienable private allotments." }, { "dimension": "pel_fixed_capital_intensity", "note": "Score 0 records no successor settlement or infrastructure program." }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "Score 0 records no successor export-production regime attributable to the legal taking." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 0 records physical continuity of possessors and production despite legal title loss." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 0 records former possessors remaining on the land rather than a physical clearance." }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "Score 0 records no completed incoming settler population." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated physical population movement." }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming stream." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no demographic decline or process deaths in the bounded legal-taking sequence." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 2 preserves the 82–45 BCE unresolved legal status rather than inventing an instantaneous completed transfer." }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "Score 0 records no established settler population." }, { "dimension": "hdem_stream_coordination", "note": "Score 0 records no incoming stream." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated physical removal." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "Score 4 uses overwhelming local physical continuity as a membership proxy, not a genetic estimate." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records administrative citizenship and title deprivation without a completed armed removal." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded legal-taking process." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 0 records physical and productive continuity rather than an incoming cultural pattern." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no spatial confinement regime." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no physical removal from which return could be barred." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete physical displacement episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records political and municipal punishment rather than ascriptive identity." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no sex-selective operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_expropriation_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records dedicated citizenship and territorial-confiscation acts despite failed distribution." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legal_instrumentation_depth", "note": "Score 4 records simultaneous legal alteration of civic status and whole-territory title for the targeted municipality." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records internal punitive reclassification inside Roman Italy." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 3 records loss of citizenship and legal exclusion despite physical continuity on the land." }, { "dimension": "ssi_legibility_engineering", "note": "Score 1 records legal declaration and repeated possessor scrutiny without completed standardized allotment." }, { "dimension": "ssi_settler_polity_autonomy", "note": "Score 0 records no completed settler polity." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_outcome_durability", "note": "Score 2 records a contested legal equilibrium with persistent local possession and repeated unresolved claims." } ], "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Operative legal-land event c. 79 BCE; siege is context, and 63, 60, 59 and 46/45 are afterlife rather than continuous operation.", "kind": "approximate_action_with_afterlife", "afterlife_years": [ -63, -60, -59, -46, -45 ] }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.1484454722, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6780565723, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 65.1940853655, "unknown_bound_high": 97.388428139 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.8191678359, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.558843027, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.5176236389, "unknown_bound_high": 73.6333209354 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.0647509969, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 89.32481983 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 14.2417084528, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4520550896, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.438036791, "unknown_bound_high": 61.2325278286 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 87.9900472717, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.5356993178, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6065143003 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-sulla-pompeii-80", "name": "Sullan veteran colony and old Pompeians at Pompeii", "start": -80, "end": -62, "date_label": "80–62 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state veteran settlement and partial land confiscation within an existing community, followed by durable unequal co-residence (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Sullan Roman state", "Sullan veteran colonists at Pompeii" ], "victims": [ "Old Pompeian residents and landholders affected by confiscation and unequal colonial rights" ], "summary": "Veterans founded a colony in the territory of the existing Pompeian community; at least some land was confiscated, the old Pompeians remained, and the two groups still disputed voting, access, and land interests in 62 BCE Evidence limit: The confiscated parcels, number of colonists, affected-household share, and exact restoration of old Pompeian rights are not recoverable; Cicero is an advocate, not a neutral census", "confidence": "high on veteran settlement, at least partial confiscation, old-resident continuity, and the documented 62 BCE dispute over voting, access, and land interests; low on parcels, colonist count, affected-household share, household composition, and the exact restoration of old Pompeian rights", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: attalus.org", "url": "https://www.attalus.org/cicero/sulla.html" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: SULLAN_VETERAN_SETTLEMENT_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/SULLAN_VETERAN_SETTLEMENT_REVIEW.md" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "veteran_colony_partial_confiscation_and_unequal_old_resident_coresidence", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "conquest_and_incorporation", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-sulla-pompeii-80", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "sullan_program_children", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: The confiscated parcels, number of colonists, affected-household share, and exact restoration of old Pompeian rights are not recoverable; Cicero is an advocate, not a neutral census" }, { "dimension": "scs_prior_polity_recognition", "note": "The frozen source set does not establish a defensible value for this dimension. Case limit: The confiscated parcels, number of colonists, affected-household share, and exact restoration of old Pompeian rights are not recoverable; Cicero is an advocate, not a neutral census" }, { "dimension": "pel_land_commodification", "note": "No event-window evidence establishes private resale, mortgage, speculation, or another land-commodity bin. Case limit: The confiscated parcels, number of colonists, affected-household share, and exact restoration of old Pompeian rights are not recoverable; Cicero is an advocate, not a neutral census" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: The confiscated parcels, number of colonists, affected-household share, and exact restoration of old Pompeian rights are not recoverable; Cicero is an advocate, not a neutral census" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The confiscated parcels, number of colonists, affected-household share, and exact restoration of old Pompeian rights are not recoverable; Cicero is an advocate, not a neutral census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: The confiscated parcels, number of colonists, affected-household share, and exact restoration of old Pompeian rights are not recoverable; Cicero is an advocate, not a neutral census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "The surviving cohort claims do not bound the total moving population within one defensible order-of-magnitude bin. Case limit: The confiscated parcels, number of colonists, affected-household share, and exact restoration of old Pompeian rights are not recoverable; Cicero is an advocate, not a neutral census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: The confiscated parcels, number of colonists, affected-household share, and exact restoration of old Pompeian rights are not recoverable; Cicero is an advocate, not a neutral census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: The confiscated parcels, number of colonists, affected-household share, and exact restoration of old Pompeian rights are not recoverable; Cicero is an advocate, not a neutral census" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: The confiscated parcels, number of colonists, affected-household share, and exact restoration of old Pompeian rights are not recoverable; Cicero is an advocate, not a neutral census" }, { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "Score 0 records old Pompeians remaining as members of the successor community rather than a separately coerced labor caste." }, { "dimension": "scs_land_tenure_extinguishment", "note": "Score 2 records documented confiscation of some Pompeian land while the affected parcels and household share remain unknown." }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "Score 0 records unequal co-residence without evidence that old Pompeians were organized as dependent labor." }, { "dimension": "pel_title_transfer_formalization", "note": "Score 3 records colonial land allocation and a documented legal-property dispute without claiming complete parcel reconstruction." }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "Score 1 records continued urban and agrarian use under a changed ownership and rights layer." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 1 records localized dispossession constrained by explicit old-Pompeian continuity; it is not a census-derived survivor percentage." }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable demographic decline or process deaths in the bounded settlement sequence." }, { "dimension": "hdem_transformation_tempo", "note": "Score 3 preserves the 80–62 BCE settlement-to-dispute sequence rather than treating long-lived unequal co-residence as an instant pulse." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated resident-removal route from Pompeii." }, { "dimension": "gfm_coercion_apex", "note": "Score 1 records state confiscation and veteran placement without a documented armed expulsion of old Pompeians." }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "Score 0 records no attributable deaths in the bounded settlement process." }, { "dimension": "gfm_intent_legibility", "note": "Score 3 records a deliberate state veteran-colony and land-allocation program." }, { "dimension": "gfm_pattern_imposition", "note": "Score 1 records colonial institutions alongside a continuing old-Pompeian community." }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "Score 0 records no spatial confinement regime." }, { "dimension": "gfm_return_foreclosure", "note": "Score 0 records no demonstrated exile or durable return bar." }, { "dimension": "gfm_displacement_tempo", "note": "Score 0 records no discrete population-removal episode." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 0 records title and political-faction effects rather than ascriptive targeting." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 0 records no documented killing or removal operation." }, { "dimension": "ssi_sovereignty_transfer_form", "note": "Score 0 records an internal Roman veteran settlement rather than a new sovereignty transfer." }, { "dimension": "ssi_displaced_status_trajectory", "note": "Score 1 records the old Pompeians' documented unequal voting, access, and land position within one municipal system." }, { "dimension": "ssi_boundary_hardening", "note": "Score 2 records the legally distinct old-resident and colonist communities without implying a sealed spatial boundary." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.6660853481, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.6660853481, "unknown_bound_high": 80.6660853481 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.5325982814, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4450847801, "unknown_bound_high": 61.647473071 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 59.9585070167, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.1616525885, "unknown_bound_high": 81.8609038875 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 42.057446536, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7200214457, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2822634568, "unknown_bound_high": 58.280118888 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.9324270057, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.9324270057, "unknown_bound_high": 54.9324270057 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "gr-roman-salassi-enslavement-augusta-praetoria-25", "name": "Salassian mass enslavement, land seizure, and Augusta Praetoria", "start": -25, "end": -24, "date_label": "25–24 BCE", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "state conquest, captive sale, best-land transfer, and veteran colony with survivor continuity (source-bounded; provisional)", "agents": [ "Roman state under Augustus", "Aulus Terentius Varro Murena", "Praetorian or veteran colonists at Augusta Praetoria" ], "victims": [ "Salassian communities of the Dora Baltea and Aosta Valley" ], "summary": "Strabo says the captured Salassi were carried to Eporedia and sold and that 3,000 Romans founded Augusta on Varro's camp; Dio says military-age Salassi were arrested and sold with a twenty-year manumission bar and that the best land was granted to Praetorians; archaeology confirms the Augustan foundation Evidence limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance", "confidence": "high on conquest, mass captive sale, best-land transfer, and the immediate Augusta Praetoria foundation; medium on source scope; low on harmonized totals, final slave destinations, resident denominator, and successor ancestry", "sources": [ { "title": "Primary source 1: penelope.uchicago.edu", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/e/roman/texts/strabo/4f%2A.html" }, { "title": "Primary source 2: lexundria.com", "url": "https://lexundria.com/dio/53.25/cy" }, { "title": "Primary source 3: cambridge.org", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/cambridge-archaeological-journal/article/augustus-power-from-the-stars-and-the-foundation-of-augusta-praetoria-salassorum/CC59A3822AA973096D2E8784CC922ABB" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 1: ROMAN_SALASSIAN_25_REVIEW.md", "url": "analysis/second_pass/ROMAN_SALASSIAN_25_REVIEW.md" }, { "title": "Modern cross-check source 2: roman_salassian_25_inventory.csv", "url": "analysis/second_pass/roman_salassian_25_inventory.csv" } ], "in_model": true, "on_atlas": false, "origin": "roman_source_frozen_candidate", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "roman_candidate_role": "direct_broad_parent_replacement", "roman_coding_pattern": "mass_enslavement_land_seizure_and_veteran_colony", "roman_editorial_family_hypothesis": "settler_replacement", "roman_source_brief": "ROMAN_CODING_BRIEFS.md#gr-roman-salassi-enslavement-augusta-praetoria-25", "roman_sensitivity_groups": "salassian_two_phase", "roman_score_flags": [ { "dimension": "scs_native_labor_articulation", "note": "The source set does not reconstruct how the successor economy depended on residents who remained. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "scs_demographic_saturation", "note": "No denominator supports an incoming or beneficiary population share within two generations. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "pel_native_labor_incorporation", "note": "The post-event labor role of surviving or relocated residents is not documented. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "pel_export_orientation", "note": "No event-window production or trade evidence supports an export-orientation bin. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "pel_incomer_household_composition", "note": "No reliable sex, age, or household table survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "pel_production_regime_conversion", "note": "The source set does not establish the successor production regime on the affected land. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "hdem_incomer_share_at_consolidation", "note": "No affected-zone denominator supports an incomer share at consolidation. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "hdem_migrant_stream_family_completeness", "note": "The incoming or transferred population is not broken down reliably by sex, age, and family unit. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "hdem_mortality_share_of_prior_decline", "note": "Deaths cannot be divided defensibly from flight, captivity, survival, or later continuity. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "hdem_settler_reproduction_engine", "note": "No event-specific fertility, replenishment, or community-growth series survives for the incoming cohort. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "hdem_displaced_relocation_distance", "note": "The final destination or modal severance of the displaced population is not known. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_ancestry_in_successor_population", "note": "No ancestry or equivalent membership estimate identifies prior-population contribution to the successor community. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "gfm_lethality_of_process", "note": "The sources do not supply a credible casualty denominator for the affected resident population. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "gfm_survivor_confinement", "note": "No spatial-control regime can be established confidently for at least ten percent of survivors for at least one year. Case limit: Strabo and Dio disagree over who was sold and cannot be harmonized into a census; Strabo's 36,000 and 8,000 figures are attributed ancient claims; slave destinations after the Eporedia market are unknown; a Salassian incolae inscription disproves total ethnic disappearance" }, { "dimension": "scs_settler_permanence_orientation", "note": "Score 3 records a durable landholding colony at Augusta Praetoria while stopping below whole-family score 4 because the sources identify the colonists as Praetorians or veterans rather than enumerated households." }, { "dimension": "hdem_prior_population_removal", "note": "Score 3 records the ancient sources' mass-capture claims while constraining them with the early Salassian incolae dedication that demonstrates a surviving local population; the source figures are not harmonized into a census." }, { "dimension": "hdem_displacement_scale", "note": "Score 2 records only the shared 10,000-100,000 order-of-magnitude band of the attributed captive claims; the 36,000 and 8,000 figures are not treated as independent census totals." }, { "dimension": "gfm_category_permeability", "note": "Score 4 reflects identity-based Salassian capture with no reported route to exemption by allegiance or conduct; the score is bounded to the 25 BCE operation." }, { "dimension": "gfm_sex_differential_targeting", "note": "Score 3 records Dio's explicit military-age selection while preserving Strabo's incompatible whole-population version as a source conflict rather than combining the two accounts." } ], "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 89.4230007978, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 89.4230007978, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4230007978 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 55.535060758, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.9259243529, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.4212651945, "unknown_bound_high": 58.8288299065 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.2610398758, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.7347920829, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4340433819 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 89.0940167687, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.2024636187, "unknown_bound_high": 95.8132823255 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 56.0825983879, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.8516665466, "unknown_bound_high": 77.4067132528 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 64.8047152702, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 64.8047152702, "unknown_bound_high": 64.8047152702 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "us-sobaipuri-relocation-1762", "name": "Spanish-ordered relocation of San Pedro Sobaipuri communities", "start": 1761, "end": 1762, "date_label": "December 1761–March 1762", "region": "Southwestern North America", "mechanism": "state-ordered partial relocation and mission concentration", "agents": [ "Governor José Tienda de Cuervo and Spanish frontier officers", "Mission and presidio institutions seeking population, labor, and defense", "Apache wartime pressure as the background security condition" ], "victims": [ "The documented subset of Sobaipuri-O'odham residents ordered from San Pedro Valley communities" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United States", "Mexico" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "spanish-northern-borderlands | athabaskan-southwest | kayenta-salado", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "In early December 1761 Spanish officials decided to move Sobaipuri-O'odham residents from San Pedro communities to reinforce Soamca, Guevavi, and Bac, consolidate frontier defense, and bring more people under mission control. Captain Francisco Elías executed the order by March 1762 amid sustained Apache pressure. His report counted 250 people settled or enumerated at Tucson and said missionary and Indigenous officials had reported about 400; people not enumerated were described as moving among nearby towns. Thirty families are separately documented at Soamca, and activity is documented at Sonoita. These figures and places do not form one complete partition and are not combined. The order and substantial partial relocation are established; complete valley abandonment is not.", "disputes": "Sayre and Spicer describe an emptied lower San Pedro, while Seymour's archaeological interpretation reports O'odham occupations after 1762. The evidence supports substantial outward movement but leaves complete abandonment, durable exclusion, and Apache replacement unresolved. Soamca, Guevavi, and Bac were intended destinations; Tucson and Soamca are directly documented execution outcomes, while Sonoita and surrounding towns appear in the wider movement record. Spanish compulsion is the proximate mechanism; Apache pressure is an interacting condition.", "omission_or_category_error": "The retired Apachean migration umbrella blurred a specific Spanish relocation order, while the Spanish-borderlands wrapper did not show the bounded population transfer.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "In early December 1761 Spanish officials decided to move Sobaipuri-O'odham residents from San Pedro communities to reinforce Soamca, Guevavi, and Bac, consolidate frontier defense, and bring more people under mission control. Captain Francisco Elías executed the order by March 1762 amid sustained Apache pressure. His report counted 250 people settled or enumerated at Tucson and said missionary and Indigenous officials had reported about 400; people not enumerated were described as moving among nearby towns. Thirty families are separately documented at Soamca, and activity is documented at Sonoita. These figures and places do not form one complete partition and are not combined. The order and substantial partial relocation are established; complete valley abandonment is not.", "sources": [ { "id": "sw_sobaipuri_nps_pfefferkorn", "title": "National Park Service, Ignacio Pfefferkorn", "url": "https://home.nps.gov/tuma/learn/historyculture/ignacio-pfefferkorn.htm", "type": "official historical synthesis with archival citation" }, { "id": "sw_sobaipuri_dobyns_tucson", "title": "Henry F. Dobyns, Spanish Colonial Tucson, chapter 2: Continued Jesuit Proselytizing, 1756–1767", "url": "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6170414ae7f8870f8ecf92b0/t/62993ff2daabc063b2085cc3/1654210549172/Continued%2BJesuit%2BProselytizing%2C%2B1756-1767.pdf", "type": "scholarly monograph chapter with translated primary report" }, { "id": "sw_sobaipuri_sayre_2011", "title": "Nathan F. Sayre, A History of Land Use and Natural Resources in the Middle San Pedro River Valley, Arizona", "url": "https://geography.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/sayre_2011_san_pedro_0.pdf", "type": "peer-reviewed scholarly article" }, { "id": "sw_sobaipuri_seymour_dating", "title": "Deni J. Seymour, Dating the Sobaípuri: A Case Study in Chronology Building and Archaeological Interpretation", "url": "https://www.oldpueblo.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/201109opa67DatingSobaipuriSites.pdf", "type": "specialist archaeological research bulletin" }, { "id": "sw_sobaipuri_spicer_cycles", "title": "Edward H. Spicer, Cycles of Conquest, chapter 5: Upper Pimas", "url": "https://openaz-tst.library.arizona.edu/read/cycles-of-conquest/section/73ab2cd5-81f0-4ab6-a117-b88ea5f34e3d", "type": "scholarly monograph" } ], "rendered_case_id": "us-sobaipuri-relocation-1762", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "v4_source_bounded_addition", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.6808055102, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6808055102, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6808055102 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 20.7938220435, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.7938220435, "unknown_bound_high": 20.7938220435 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 5.5731394944, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.5731394944, "unknown_bound_high": 5.5731394944 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 29.1771999237, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.794580659, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 23.1836387439, "unknown_bound_high": 43.7255728411 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3985281698, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 60.1471830196 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "us-las-humanas-famine-raid-abandonment", "name": "Famine, raid, and abandonment of Las Humanas", "start": 1667, "end": 1672, "date_label": "1667–1672", "region": "Southwestern North America", "mechanism": "mixed-cause removal without durable replacement", "agents": [ "Drought, crop failure, famine, and disease", "Spanish tribute, labor demands, mission institutions, and strategic consolidation", "Apache attackers in the September 1670 raid" ], "victims": [ "Residents of Las Humanas / Gran Quivira" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "spanish-northern-borderlands | athabaskan-southwest | us-salinas-pueblo-abandonment", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Crop failure and food shortage struck Las Humanas from 1667. A contemporary Franciscan report attributed more than 450 deaths there to starvation in 1668, while the later NPS history describes the total more cautiously as perhaps 450. An Apache attack seriously damaged the mission in September 1670. The Franciscans probably closed it in 1671, and surviving residents moved through Abó toward Piro-speaking Rio Grande missions, probably Isleta, by 1672. Las Humanas was not durably replaced by an incoming community and remained abandoned until reoccupation of the area after 1800.", "disputes": "The death report, later population statements, and raid losses do not supply compatible denominators and cannot yield a mortality share or displacement total. Drought, famine, disease, Spanish extraction and consolidation, and Apache attack interacted. The evidence does not show a single-cause Apache conquest or replacement settlement.", "omission_or_category_error": "The former district-wide Salinas row incorrectly gave every settlement one 1678 endpoint. Las Humanas has its own documented famine, attack, mission closure, route, and long source-site vacancy.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Crop failure and food shortage struck Las Humanas from 1667. A contemporary Franciscan report attributed more than 450 deaths there to starvation in 1668, while the later NPS history describes the total more cautiously as perhaps 450. An Apache attack seriously damaged the mission in September 1670. The Franciscans probably closed it in 1671, and surviving residents moved through Abó toward Piro-speaking Rio Grande missions, probably Isleta, by 1672. Las Humanas was not durably replaced by an incoming community and remained abandoned until reoccupation of the area after 1800.", "sources": [ { "id": "sw_salinas_nps_antiquities", "title": "National Park Service, Gran Quivira and the Antiquities Act", "url": "https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/gran-quivira-and-the-antiquities-act.htm", "type": "official historical and archaeological synthesis" }, { "id": "sw_salinas_ivey_hsr", "title": "James E. Ivey, In the Midst of a Loneliness: The Architectural History of the Salinas Missions, chapter 8", "url": "https://npshistory.com/publications/sapu/hsr/chap8.htm", "type": "National Park Service historic structures report" }, { "id": "sw_salinas_vivian_1964", "title": "Gordon Vivian, Excavations in a 17th-Century Jumano Pueblo: Gran Quivira", "url": "https://southernnm.info/public_html/pdfs/Gran_Quivira_Archeological_Research_Series.pdf", "type": "National Park Service archaeological research series" } ], "rendered_case_id": "us-las-humanas-famine-raid-abandonment", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "v4_source_bounded_addition", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 63.9183011818, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.545883549, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.8919490927, "unknown_bound_high": 80.3035941965 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.9389788157, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9073203156, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.2031967647, "unknown_bound_high": 16.4711652037 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 45.9990945823, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.9990945823, "unknown_bound_high": 45.9990945823 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 30.8075218841, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 19.8147486374, "unknown_bound_high": 55.4968566891 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 35.4510422407, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.4510422407, "unknown_bound_high": 35.4510422407 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "us-quarai-chilili-to-tajique-relocation", "name": "Relocation of Quarai and Chililí residents to Tajique", "start": 1676, "end": 1677, "date_label": "1676–1677", "region": "Southwestern North America", "mechanism": "mixed-cause removal without durable replacement", "agents": [ "Spanish and Franciscan strategic consolidation", "Famine, regional insecurity, and repeated raiding" ], "victims": [ "Residents of Quarai and Chililí" ], "agent_countries": [ "Spain" ], "victim_countries": [ "United States" ], "container_countries": [ "United States" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "spanish-northern-borderlands | athabaskan-southwest | us-salinas-pueblo-abandonment", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "medium", "summary": "Between late 1676 and early 1677 the Christian populations of Quarai and Chililí moved to Tajique amid famine, insecurity, and Spanish-Franciscan consolidation. Quarai residents carried a favored missionary's remains with them. Quarai and Chililí were not durably replaced by incoming communities. Tajique then failed as a destination, was abandoned shortly before the end of 1677, and was reoccupied in early 1678 by more than two hundred Indigenous families and a small garrison, remaining occupied at least through mid-1679. The Salinas district was therefore not continuously empty after 1678.", "disputes": "The documented movement concerns Quarai and Chililí; Tajique's later abandonment and reoccupation are separate destination phases. Its reoccupation rules out both continuous district-wide vacancy and an incoming successor settlement at the source sites.", "omission_or_category_error": "Quarai and Chililí moved first to Tajique, whose later abandonment and 1678 reoccupation contradict the former claim that the whole Salinas district was continuously empty by 1678.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Between late 1676 and early 1677 the Christian populations of Quarai and Chililí moved to Tajique amid famine, insecurity, and Spanish-Franciscan consolidation. Quarai residents carried a favored missionary's remains with them. Quarai and Chililí were not durably replaced by incoming communities. Tajique then failed as a destination, was abandoned shortly before the end of 1677, and was reoccupied in early 1678 by more than two hundred Indigenous families and a small garrison, remaining occupied at least through mid-1679. The Salinas district was therefore not continuously empty after 1678.", "sources": [ { "id": "sw_salinas_nps_quarai", "title": "National Park Service, Quarai, Mission Nuestra Señora de la Purísima Concepción", "url": "https://www.nps.gov/subjects/travelspanishmissions/quarai.htm", "type": "official historical and archaeological synthesis" }, { "id": "sw_salinas_ivey_hsr", "title": "James E. Ivey, In the Midst of a Loneliness: The Architectural History of the Salinas Missions, chapter 8", "url": "https://npshistory.com/publications/sapu/hsr/chap8.htm", "type": "National Park Service historic structures report" } ], "rendered_case_id": "us-quarai-chilili-to-tajique-relocation", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "v4_source_bounded_addition", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 63.9674352726, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9322944446, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 59.6364845385, "unknown_bound_high": 66.4070400808 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.9389788157, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9073203156, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.2031967647, "unknown_bound_high": 16.4711652037 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.2726740391, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 49.2726740391, "unknown_bound_high": 49.2726740391 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 13.0061985298, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.0061985298, "unknown_bound_high": 13.0061985298 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 31.7670027382, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.7670027382, "unknown_bound_high": 31.7670027382 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "danish-norwegian-initial-colonization-west-greenland", "name": "Danish-Norwegian mission-and-trade colonization of West Greenland", "start": 1721, "end": 1782, "date_label": "1721–1782", "region": "North America", "mechanism": "conquest without substantial settlement", "agents": [ "The Danish-Norwegian Crown", "Hans Egede and crown-backed mission institutions", "Successive monopoly companies, merchants, and posted colonial personnel" ], "victims": [ "Kalaallit and other Inuit communities living near the West Greenland colony-town, mission, and trade network" ], "agent_countries": [ "Denmark", "Norway" ], "victim_countries": [ "Greenland" ], "container_countries": [ "Greenland" ], "atlas_status_preapply": "absent", "atlas_case_ids": "norse-greenland", "recommendation": "strong", "confidence": "high", "summary": "Beginning in 1721, Danish-Norwegian crown-backed missionaries and successive monopoly companies established a network of small colonial towns and mission-and-trade stations in West Greenland. These externally governed nodes exercised institutional control over land and organized trade and mission activity around nearby Kalaallit communities. European personnel remained few and were largely posted for fixed terms, while Greenlandic producers sustained the colonial trade. This was colonial incorporation, not mass European settler replacement.", "disputes": "The evidence does not establish coast-wide occupation, Indigenous tenure extinguishment, mass removal, or Indigenous cession. Danish-Norwegian elites justified the project partly through an asserted continuity with medieval Norwegian rule; that was a colonial rationale, not evidence of unbroken Scandinavian occupation or Kalaallit consent. A 1733 smallpox outbreak followed the return of a Greenlander from Denmark and caused severe local mortality around Godthåb, but the available account supplies no denominator for the affected network. The 1925 Ittoqqortoormiit movement, 1953–55 Inughuit removal, post-1782 separation and assimilation regimes, East Greenland's later incorporation, and later constitutional transitions occurred under later regimes and are not part of this 1721–1782 chronology.", "omission_or_category_error": "The retired medieval Norse settlement was not the eighteenth-century colonial project. The 1721 mission-and-trade network established externally governed territorial nodes among an existing Inuit population.", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Beginning in 1721, Danish-Norwegian crown-backed missionaries and successive monopoly companies established a network of small colonial towns and mission-and-trade stations in West Greenland. These externally governed nodes exercised institutional control over land and organized trade and mission activity around nearby Kalaallit communities. European personnel remained few and were largely posted for fixed terms, while Greenlandic producers sustained the colonial trade. This was colonial incorporation, not mass European settler replacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "greenland_neergaard_2025", "title": "Ulla Neergaard, ‘Eurarctic’: Colonialism and EU–Greenland Relations", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/colonialism-and-the-eu-legal-order/eurarctic/D788213E8AE4640B3E143DA6010FB75A", "type": "open-access scholarly book chapter" }, { "id": "greenland_olesen_2019", "title": "Simon Mølholm Olesen, Grønland som territorium: kontinuitet og forandring i dansk-norske forestillinger om Grønland, ca. 1600–1721", "url": "https://tidsskrift.dk/temp/article/view/118080", "type": "peer-reviewed historical article" }, { "id": "greenland_trap_egede", "title": "Marianne Jensen, Hans Egede og missionstjenesten", "url": "https://trap-groenland.lex.dk/Hans_Egede_og_missionstjenesten", "type": "expert-authored national encyclopedia synthesis" }, { "id": "greenland_trap_colonial_period", "title": "Marianne Jensen, Kolonitiden frem til krigsårene i Grønland", "url": "https://trap-groenland.lex.dk/Kolonitiden_frem_til_krigs%C3%A5rene_i_Gr%C3%B8nland", "type": "expert-authored national encyclopedia synthesis" }, { "id": "greenland_olesen_daily_life_1721_1750", "title": "Simon Mølholm Olesen, Hverdagslivet i de dansk-norske kolonier i Grønland, 1721–1750", "url": "https://danmarkshistorien.lex.dk/Hverdagslivet_i_de_dansk-norske_kolonier_i_Gr%C3%B8nland%2C_1721-1750", "type": "expert-authored historical synthesis based partly on contemporary diaries" }, { "id": "greenland_pcij_1933", "title": "Permanent Court of International Justice, Legal Status of Eastern Greenland, Judgment of 5 April 1933", "url": "https://api.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/permanent-court-of-international-justice/serie_AB/AB_53/01_Groenland_Oriental_Arret.pdf", "type": "primary international judicial decision" }, { "id": "statistics_greenland_figures_2025", "title": "Statistics Greenland, Greenland in Figures 2025", "url": "https://stat.gl/publ/en/GF/2025/pdf/Greenland%20in%20Figures%202025.pdf", "type": "official statistical publication" } ], "rendered_case_id": "danish-norwegian-initial-colonization-west-greenland", "on_atlas": true, "in_model": true, "origin": "v4_source_bounded_addition", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "CURRENT_RELEASE_LABEL_CARRIED_FORWARD", "provenance": "immutable_v4_primary_family", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 51.8930925522, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 51.8930925522, "unknown_bound_high": 51.8930925522 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 42.7243023254, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8820517642, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.6850462409, "unknown_bound_high": 49.4798698197 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 48.3691837046, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3786989604, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.3173595852, "unknown_bound_high": 80.4474635434 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7238769706, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 27.612302939 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 15.302603283, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 9.8423118448, "unknown_bound_high": 45.5244198966 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 46.1825619009, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7027097709, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 32.4529374906, "unknown_bound_high": 62.1819604056 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-early-neo-assyrian-aribua-luhuti-transition-875-869-bce", "name": "Aššurnaṣirpal II's Aribua outpost settlement and Luḫuti city destruction (875–869 BCE dating window)", "start": -875, "end": -869, "date_label": "875–869 BCE", "operative_date_start": -875, "operative_date_end": -869, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "ORACC presents the Aribua occupation, Assyrian settlement, and Luḫuti conquests as one undated campaign episode; Sano, printed p. 329, places the western campaign between 875 and 869 BCE. The input's 876 BCE lower boundary is not supported by the cited scholarship, and no finer year is established.", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "Military occupation of Aribua; seizure and storage of Luḫuti barley and straw; settlement of Assyrians at Aribua; conquest, massacre, destruction, devastation, burning, and impalement at Luḫuti cities", "agents": [ "Aššurnaṣirpal II and his Assyrian forces; Lubarna of Pattinu as the authority whose fortified city Aribua was taken; incoming people of Assyria" ], "victims": [ "Inhabitants of the conquered Luḫuti cities, many of whom the inscription says were massacred; incoming Assyrian settlers at Aribua. Counts, household composition, and any pre-existing Aribua residents displaced by the occupation are unknown." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The primary inscription presents the Aribua occupation and Assyrian settlement together with the Luḫuti destruction in one western-campaign episode. This is a coherent land-taking and settlement event; merging the two inherited rows prevents duplicate counting, while uncertain counts and prior-resident outcomes remain unknown in scoring.", "disputes": "Settlement numbers, household composition, Aribua's prior-resident outcome, exact campaign year, and durable demographic effects are not established and remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Military occupation, appropriation of land-linked produce, Assyrian settlement, and destruction of Luḫuti communities", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-early-neo-assyrian-aribua-luhuti-transition-875-869-bce::SRC-01", "title": "Royal Inscriptions of Assyria online, Ashurnasirpal II 001 (Q004455); Katsuji Sano, Die Expansion des assyrischen Reiches unter Aššurnaṣirpal II, Aula Orientalis 33/2 (2015)", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/riao/Q004455/html", "locator": "ORACC Q004455.336 at column iii 80b through iii 84 matched Aribua's occupation, Luḫuti produce seizure, Assyrian settlement, massacre, destruction, burning, and impalement; Sano printed page 329 (PDF page 6), lines 285-298, matched the 875-869 BCE western-campaign window and Aribua/Luḫuti linkage." }, { "id": "prospective-early-neo-assyrian-aribua-luhuti-transition-875-869-bce::SRC-02", "title": "Royal Inscriptions of Assyria online, Ashurnasirpal II 001 (Q004455); Katsuji Sano, Die Expansion des assyrischen Reiches unter Aššurnaṣirpal II, Aula Orientalis 33/2 (2015)", "url": "https://www.ub.edu/ipoa/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20152AuOrSano.pdf", "locator": "ORACC Q004455.336 at column iii 80b through iii 84 matched Aribua's occupation, Luḫuti produce seizure, Assyrian settlement, massacre, destruction, burning, and impalement; Sano printed page 329 (PDF page 6), lines 285-298, matched the 875-869 BCE western-campaign window and Aribua/Luḫuti linkage." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-aribua-settlement-876-869", "early-neo-assyrian-ashurnasirpal-luhuti-clearance-876-869" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Merge the two Aribua and Luḫuti source-parent rows into this one prospective event: ORACC places occupation, settlement, and Luḫuti destruction in one Aribua-centered episode. Count the shared campaign, territory, incoming cohort, and affected Luḫuti communities once; do not absorb the separately described later Gargamiš/Bīt-Adini campaign.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_022", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6766902077, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 67.6690207747, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 9.7759720851, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6349301058, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 6.20705899, "unknown_bound_high": 42.7140484128 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.9288434819, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.3153869016, "unknown_bound_high": 80.4256397315 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-athenian-aegina-expulsion-settlement-431-406-bce", "name": "Athenian expulsion of the Aeginetans and successor settlement on Aegina, 431 BCE to before restoration", "start": -431, "end": -406, "date_label": "431–406 BCE", "operative_date_start": -431, "operative_date_end": -406, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Thucydides 2.27 places the family-inclusive expulsion and dispatch of Athenian inhabitants in the first summer of the war, 431 BCE. Xenophon, Hellenica 2.2.9, places Lysander's reinstatement of former inhabitants in the campaign labeled 405 BCE by the cited edition. The end year 406 is the last full year before that restoration, which is excluded.", "region": "Aegina", "mechanism": "Whole-community expulsion followed by Athenian occupation, successor settlement, and possession or allocation of Aeginetan land; later restoration is an excluded reversal", "agents": [ "Athens as the expelling authority and sender of settlers; Athenian settlers occupying Aegina" ], "victims": [ "The Aeginetan resident community, explicitly including men, women, and children; refugee totals, destinations beyond the named Thyrea branch, settler totals, and the share surviving to return are unknown" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly join family-inclusive removal to incoming Athenian occupation and land tenure. The source-island program is coherent and distinct from both the later Thyrea violence and the 405 BCE restoration; retiring the wrapper prevents those phases from being counted together and again as children.", "disputes": "Settler status and totals, individual land parcels, refugee counts and routes beyond the named branches, labor effects, and the returning share remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Whole-community expulsion followed by Athenian occupation, durable settlement, and possession or allocation of Aeginetan land", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-gr-athenian-aegina-expulsion-settlement-431-406-bce::SRC-01", "title": "Hellenistic coding briefs, Aegina and Thyrea rows; Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War 2.27 and 4.57; Xenophon, Hellenica 2.2.9; Irene Polinskaya, Fifth-Century Horoi on Aigina: A Reevaluation; Attic Inscriptions Online, IG IV² 2 803", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=urn%3Acts%3AgreekLit%3Atlg0003.tlg001.perseus-eng2%3A2", "locator": "Thucydides 2.27 at the recorded Perseus locator matched the same-summer expulsion of Aeginetans and families and the shortly implemented dispatch of Athenian settlers; Xenophon Hellenica 2.2.9 matched Lysander's later gathering and reinstatement of former inhabitants, confirming the excluded restoration boundary." }, { "id": "prospective-gr-athenian-aegina-expulsion-settlement-431-406-bce::SRC-02", "title": "Hellenistic coding briefs, Aegina and Thyrea rows; Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War 2.27 and 4.57; Xenophon, Hellenica 2.2.9; Irene Polinskaya, Fifth-Century Horoi on Aigina: A Reevaluation; Attic Inscriptions Online, IG IV² 2 803", "url": "https://www.gutenberg.org/files/1174/1174-h/1174-h.htm", "locator": "Thucydides 2.27 at the recorded Perseus locator matched the same-summer expulsion of Aeginetans and families and the shortly implemented dispatch of Athenian settlers; Xenophon Hellenica 2.2.9 matched Lysander's later gathering and reinstatement of former inhabitants, confirming the excluded restoration boundary." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-greek-aegina-expulsion-cleruchy-return" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain one prospective Aegina child for the 431 expulsion and successor tenure through 406. Keep the 424 Thyrea capture and executions separate because the place and coercive act differ, and keep the 405 restoration outside this child. Use neutral settlement rather than the disputed technical label cleruchy.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_032", "metadata_qualitative_display_reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/BATCH_30_PUBLIC_TRAIT_DISPLAY_OVERRIDES.json", "locator": "/cases/prospective-gr-athenian-aegina-expulsion-settlement-431-406-bce" }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.1492672918, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8361781411, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.0532030297, "unknown_bound_high": 93.4353889176 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 14.19857981, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3031910289, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.3048820216, "unknown_bound_high": 73.9857791311 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 95.1454265268, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5647834195, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.7365593416, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 16.7809869001, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 16.7809869001 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 9.2145114099, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7792553267, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 29.2549244278 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-athenian-samos-expulsion-cleruchy-365-323-bce", "name": "Athenian expulsion and phased cleruchy on Samos, 365/4 BCE to before the 322/1 restoration", "start": -365, "end": -323, "date_label": "365/4–323 BCE", "operative_date_start": -365, "operative_date_end": -323, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Attic Inscriptions Online dates Timotheos's capture to 366/5, the large-part expulsion and first cleruchic settlement to 365/4 or shortly thereafter, and later settler dispatches to 361/0 and 352/1; the inscription itself identifies the Athenian People on Samos in 334/3. Diodorus 18.18.9 gives a forty-three-year exile and AIO places restoration after Athens's defeat in 322, while the Attalus editorial dates final restoration to 321. The sources therefore support a 322/1 restoration window and 323 as the last fully pre-restoration year.", "region": "Samos, eastern Aegean", "mechanism": "Athenian capture, large-part expulsion, cleruchic land division, phased dispatch of settlers, and continuing Athenian civic administration; the Samian restoration is excluded", "agents": [ "Athens, Timotheos, and successive Athenian cleruchs or the Athenian People on Samos" ], "victims": [ "A large part of the Samian population driven from the island and successive Athenian cleruchic settlers; destinations, parcel allocations, remaining Samian residents, and population totals are unknown" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Direct evidence supports one continuous Athenian expulsion-and-cleruchy program from 365/4 through the last pre-restoration year. The 322/1 return is a separate reversal; treating the wrapper as retired avoids counting that later program inside this event.", "disputes": "Exile destinations, exact parcel allocations, remaining Samian residents, population totals, labor and economic effects, and the exact restoration date within 322/1 remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Large-part expulsion followed by phased Athenian cleruchic land division, settlement, and administration", "sources": [ { "title": "Attic Inscriptions Online, IG XII 6, 1 264", "locator": "lines 5–15; Athenian civic body on Samos in 334/3 BCE", "role": "inscription_in_modern_edition", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_36_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Event 3: Samos, 365/4-323 BCE" }, "url": "https://www.atticinscriptions.com/inscription/IGXII61/264" }, { "title": "Attic Inscriptions Online, commentary on IG XII 6, 1 264", "locator": "capture 366/5, large-part expulsion/dispatch 365/4, later dispatches 361/0 and 352/1; editorial chronology", "role": "modern_editorial_commentary", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_36_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Event 3: Samos, 365/4-323 BCE" }, "url": "https://www.atticinscriptions.com/inscription/IGXII61/264" }, { "title": "Sylloge Inscriptionum Graecarum 312", "locator": "Samos honors Gorgos and Minneon of Iasos; named advocates and some exiles, not a general exile destination", "role": "inscription_in_modern_edition", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_36_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Event 3: Samos, 365/4-323 BCE" } }, { "title": "Diodorus Siculus, Library of History", "locator": "18.18.9; restoration boundary context", "role": "ancient_narrative_context", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_36_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Event 3: Samos, 365/4-323 BCE" } }, { "title": "Alfonso Moreno, The Attic Neighbour", "locator": "land-division synthesis and attributed 2,000 in one contingent, not a total census or household count", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_36_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Event 3: Samos, 365/4-323 BCE" } } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-athenian-samos-cleruchy-expulsion-return" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain one prospective Athenian-program child for expulsion and phased cleruchy through 323. Assign expelled Samians, incoming cleruchs, and Samian land only once here; exclude the 322/1 restoration and do not infer destinations, parcels, or remaining-resident totals.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_031", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.4543152598, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7376149146, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 57.1314581333, "unknown_bound_high": 83.3699666765 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 64.2373604734, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5310811464, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.1152510389, "unknown_bound_high": 81.0071364036 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.144622213, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0063851275, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3312049575 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 18.9734026896, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 28.3361930238 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 11.1711752713, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.7791240815, "unknown_bound_high": 22.2402229006 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-athenian-scione-destruction-plataean-settlement-421-406-bce", "name": "Athenian killing and enslavement at Scione with Plataean successor settlement, 421 BCE to before restoration", "start": -421, "end": -406, "date_label": "421–406 BCE", "operative_date_start": -421, "operative_date_end": -406, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Thucydides 5.32 records the reduction of Scione, killing, enslavement, and land grant in the summer conventionally dated 421 BCE. Plutarch, Lysander 14.3, places the Scionaean restoration among Lysander's measures after the Athenians were driven out, conventionally 405 BCE. The end year 406 is the last full year before the excluded restoration.", "region": "Scione and the land granted to Plataeans", "mechanism": "Military reduction, killing of adult males, enslavement of women and children, and transfer of the land for Plataean settlement; later restoration is an excluded reversal", "agents": [ "Athens and its forces as the coercive authority; Plataeans as recipients and successor settlers on Scionaean land" ], "victims": [ "Adult Scionaean males put to death and Scionaean women and children enslaved; incoming Plataeans. Survivor numbers, captive destinations, and Plataean household totals are unknown." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Thucydides directly links community destruction and enslavement to a successor land grant. This is one bounded removal-and-settlement event; the later Scionaean restoration is independently authorized and therefore excluded from this target and from its retired wrapper.", "disputes": "Exact casualty and captive totals, captive destinations, survivor outcomes, Plataean household totals, parcel shares, labor effects, and tenure details remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Killing and enslavement of the Scionaean community followed by transfer of its land for Plataean settlement", "sources": [ { "title": "Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War", "locator": "5.32; Ellopos web text, not an independent historical witness", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_31_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Scione authorization" }, "url": "https://www.ellopos.net/elpenor/greek-texts/ancient-Greece/thucydides/history-5.asp?pg=20" }, { "title": "Plutarch, Life of Lysander", "locator": "14.3; separate restoration boundary only", "role": "ancient_narrative_context", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_31_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Scione authorization" } } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-greek-scione-destruction-plataean-settlement-return" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain one prospective Scione child for the 421 killing, enslavement, and Plataean tenure through 406. Count the Scionaean removal and successor land grant once; exclude the 405 restoration as a separate reversal and do not import unknown survivor or settler totals.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_033", "metadata_date_semantics": { "kind": "analytical_tenure_endpoint", "action_year": -421, "last_full_pre_restoration_year": -406, "endpoint_is_separate_action": false }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.4808748018, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7421082553, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 71.5992536699, "unknown_bound_high": 97.388428139 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.0679768566, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.3988428278, "unknown_bound_high": 96.6011571722 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3973147125, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.7314712501, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 69.6268325973, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7089831509, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 49.3642511635, "unknown_bound_high": 78.4659360714 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1035524222, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 89.6447577815 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-cyrene-commons-expulsion-wealthy-faction-split-flight", "name": "Cyrenian commons' expulsion of the wealthy faction and split flight to Thibron and Egypt", "start": -323, "end": -323, "date_label": "Before 322/1 BCE — exact date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: gr-hellenistic-cyrene-factional-expulsion-restoration-324-322", "date_resolution": "Diodorus 18.21.6–7 places the expulsion during the prolonged Thibron war and before the Ophellas-led return. Loeb note 4 nominally assigns chapters 2–25 to 323/2 but explicitly identifies chronological confusion, while note 73 and Will place Ophellas's capture or installation in 322/1 or 322. No cited locator dates the initial civic expulsion to 324 BCE, so both target years remain UNKNOWN.", "region": "Cyrene, with exile branches toward Thibron and Egypt", "mechanism": "Factional civic expulsion after the commons gained the upper hand, followed by bifurcated flight; the Ophellas-led armed return and Ptolemaic annexation are excluded", "agents": [ "The Cyrenean commons as the expelling faction; the wealthy or rich Cyrenian faction as the expelled group. Thibron, Ptolemy, and Ophellas define the two outward routes and later excluded return." ], "victims": [ "The wealthy or rich Cyrenian faction driven from Cyrene; Diodorus says some fled to Thibron and others to Egypt. Counts, household composition, property outcomes, names, and complete destinations are unknown." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly identifies the expelling faction, affected population, source territory, and removal, even though its exact year and complete destinations are unknown. The later armed return and Ptolemaic takeover are a different program and are excluded from this child.", "disputes": "The absolute date, names, counts, household composition, individual property outcomes, labor effects, complete destinations, and duration of exile remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Factional civic expulsion from Cyrene followed by coerced territorial flight along two attested outward branches", "sources": [ { "title": "Diodorus Siculus, Library of History", "locator": "18.21.6–9; distinct expulsion and armed return/takeover", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_38_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Binding historical and statistical corrections" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Diodorus_Siculus/18A%2A.html" }, { "title": "Loeb editorial chronology for Diodorus Book 18", "locator": "notes 4 and 73; chronological confusion and 322/1 dating, not ancient text", "role": "modern_editorial_commentary", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_38_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Binding historical and statistical corrections" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Diodorus_Siculus/18A%2A.html" }, { "title": "Édouard Will, Ophellas, Ptolémée, Cassandre et la chronologie (1964)", "locator": "printed p. 320", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_38_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Binding historical and statistical corrections" }, "url": "https://www.persee.fr/doc/rea_0035-2004_1964_num_66_3_3727" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-hellenistic-cyrene-factional-expulsion-restoration-324-322" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Split only the initial commons-led expulsion and outward routes from the broad source parent. Exclude the later Ophellas-led armed return, defeat of Thibron, and transfer to Ptolemy; do not duplicate those later phases or infer a 324 BCE start.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_036", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Initial expulsion precedes the 322/1 return. Exact historical date remains unknown; −323 is retained only as the existing model-order proxy, never as a historical date.", "kind": "unresolved_before", "before_window": [ -322, -321 ], "ordering_only": { "value": -323, "use": "existing_model_order_not_historical" } }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 37.9045979519, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4603230581, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.4483604454, "unknown_bound_high": 71.416054635 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.0803928938, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.0098223442, "unknown_bound_high": 93.9705329673 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8834937354, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 11.6506264601 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 4.9987758373, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6069009366, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 3.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 42.3436680821 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1059221108, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4077889163 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-hellenistic-antiochos-lysimacheia-restoration", "name": "Antiochos III’s restoration and repopulation of Lysimacheia", "start": -196, "end": -196, "date_label": "196 BCE", "operative_date_start": -196, "operative_date_end": -196, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Livy places the work in the spring campaign of 196 BCE, and Cohen identifies the refoundation in 196 BCE.", "region": "Lysimacheia on the Thracian Chersonese", "mechanism": "Ransom from slavery, gathering of refugees, rebuilding of houses and walls, material provisioning, and attraction of new colonists to repopulate the restored city", "agents": [ "Antiochos III; his son Seleukos; Seleucid land forces, naval crews, and allies assigned to rebuilding" ], "victims": [ "Former Lysimacheians who had been enslaved and were ransomed; refugees gathered from the Chersonese and Hellespont shores; additional invited settlers" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources describe implemented rebuilding and repopulation rather than permission to return alone. This later restoration is a coherent territorial-settlement program with its own authority and mechanism, separate from the earlier Thracian destruction represented by its sibling target.", "disputes": "Counts, origins of invited settlers, individual return routes, parcel allocations, and coercion within the restoration itself are not established and remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Organized ransom and return of former residents, rebuilding, provisioning, and repopulation of Lysimacheia", "sources": [ { "title": "Livy, History of Rome", "locator": "33.38.10–14 and 33.41.4–5", "role": "retrospective_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_41_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and calibration controls" }, "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_33.htm" }, { "title": "Getzel M. Cohen, The Hellenistic Settlements in Europe, the Islands, and Asia Minor", "locator": "printed pp. 82–83; reconstructed chronology", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_41_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and calibration controls" } }, { "title": "Polybius, Histories", "locator": "embedded royal defenses; not independent proof of full implementation or legal status", "role": "ancient_embedded_claim_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_41_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and calibration controls" } }, { "title": "Appian, Syrian Wars", "locator": "6.28; 190 BCE renewed family departure, not universal evacuation", "role": "ancient_narrative_outcome_control", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_41_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and calibration controls" } } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-hellenistic-lysimacheia-thracian-sack-return" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Antiochid restoration and inward-return child; excludes the prior Thracian sack and Lysimachos’s earlier foundation, and invited newcomers are not evidence that prior residents were displaced by the restoration.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_037", "metadata_scope_qualifier": "Appian, Syrian Wars 6.28, reports a renewed departure with wives and children accompanying Antiochos's flight in 190 BCE. This limits demonstrated restoration to roughly six years without proving that everyone departed. Treat it as linked outcome evidence, not a third event.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.5605907965, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.7292461572, "unknown_bound_high": 80.8017810528 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 26.3801024703, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2244302622, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.9204933148, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4774670927 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 82.8810806507, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.5118488857, "unknown_bound_high": 95.1436752312 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1651998789, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4800121132 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7221604762, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 27.7839523771 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 16.3843440758, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6393895547, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 10.4759784622, "unknown_bound_high": 46.5370229953 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-hellenistic-lysimacheia-thracian-sack-dispersal", "name": "Thracian capture, destruction, and dispersal at Lysimacheia", "start": -198, "end": -198, "date_label": "c. 198 BCE", "operative_date_start": -198, "operative_date_end": -198, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Approximate date reconstructed by Cohen and the primary sequence; replaces the −197 parent-derived proxy.", "region": "Lysimacheia on the Thracian Chersonese", "mechanism": "Military capture, plunder, burning, enslavement or sale of some inhabitants, and refugee dispersal", "agents": [ "Unidentified Thracian forces that captured Lysimacheia; the Lysimacheian resident community" ], "victims": [ "Former Lysimacheian residents who were enslaved or dispersed as refugees; the sources do not provide a complete population or casualty count" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly support community destruction tied to loss of the urban site and dispersal of residents. Exact year, routes, and totals can remain unknown without collapsing this sack into Antiochos III's separately implemented restoration.", "disputes": "The exact sack year, casualty and captive totals, complete refugee destinations and routes, and the immediate governance outcome are not established.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Military capture, destruction, enslavement, and refugee dispersal that extinguished the occupied urban community", "sources": [ { "title": "Livy, History of Rome", "locator": "33.38.10–14", "role": "retrospective_ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_41_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and calibration controls" }, "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_33.htm" }, { "title": "Getzel M. Cohen, The Hellenistic Settlements in Europe, the Islands, and Asia Minor", "locator": "printed pp. 82–83; reconstructed chronology", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_41_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and calibration controls" } }, { "title": "Polybius, Histories", "locator": "embedded royal defenses; not independent proof of full implementation or legal status", "role": "ancient_embedded_claim_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_41_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and calibration controls" } } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-hellenistic-lysimacheia-thracian-sack-return" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Thracian destruction and outward-dispersal child; excludes Antiochos III’s ransom, return, and rebuilding, and preserves exact-year uncertainty.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_037", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Approximate date reconstructed by Cohen and the primary sequence; replaces the −197 parent-derived proxy.", "kind": "approximate_reconstructed_event" }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 74.976122106, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2327188971, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.4483604454, "unknown_bound_high": 94.1764707353 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 11.8969590912, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3384222122, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.0261952144, "unknown_bound_high": 70.1839739918 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3268648897, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 67.3135110295 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 39.9703729173, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5934310897, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.7196619554, "unknown_bound_high": 64.376552987 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1059221108, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4077889163 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-hellenistic-lysimachos-astakos-destruction", "name": "Lysimachos’s razing of Astakos", "start": null, "end": null, "date_label": "Between 301 and 281 BCE (inferred); exact year unknown", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Inferred post-Ipsos/pre-death destruction horizon, not −260; resident movement and the later transfer are not inferred from the razing.", "region": "Astakene Gulf, Bithynia", "mechanism": "Razing Astakos to the ground and immediate loss of the urban site; no later transfer or interim-residence claim is assigned to this phase", "agents": [ "Lysimachos and his forces; the urban community of Astakos" ], "victims": [ "The Astakian urban community affected by the razing; survivor distribution, physical displacement, and routes are not directly described for this phase" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Strabo directly attributes destruction of the urban site to Lysimachos. Survivor movement is unknown and must be scored as such, but destruction of the community's territorial base is independently qualifying and distinct from Nikomedes I's later transfer.", "disputes": "The exact destruction year, survivor distribution, movement during this phase, governance replacement, economic effects, casualty totals, and interim residences remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Razing of Astakos and destruction of the community's urban territorial base", "sources": [ { "title": "Strabo, Geography", "locator": "12.4.2; separate attribution of razing to Lysimachos and transfer to Nikomedeia's founder", "role": "ancient_geography", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_40_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and provenance corrections" }, "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Aabo%3Atlg%2C0099%2C001%3A12%3A4%3A2" }, { "title": "Memnon, History of Heracleia", "locator": "12.1; foundation and opposite-site context only, not direct razing or transfer evidence", "role": "ancient_narrative_context", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_40_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and provenance corrections" } }, { "title": "Getzel M. Cohen, The Hellenistic Settlements in Europe, the Islands, and Asia Minor", "locator": "Astakos/Nikomedeia discussion; source-critical chronology", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_40_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and provenance corrections" } }, { "title": "Bekker-Nielsen, Astakos/Nikomedeia scholarship", "locator": "source-critical geography/context; source packet supplies work/edition crosswalk", "role": "modern_specialist_reference_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_40_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and provenance corrections" } } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-hellenistic-astakos-nikomedeia-sequence" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Lysimachian destruction child; excludes Nikomedes I’s later transfer and foundation and makes no claim about survivor routes or interim residence.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_035", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Inferred post-Ipsos/pre-death destruction horizon, not −260; resident movement and the later transfer are not inferred from the razing.", "kind": "open_historical_bracket", "after": -301, "before": -281 }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.639526665, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 63.9526664987, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1750940028, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 82.4905997227 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1127316638, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 88.7268336174 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 30.8820153683, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3307046201, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.2128251614, "unknown_bound_high": 77.142363148 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1059221108, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4077889163 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-hellenistic-lysimachos-skepsis-withdrawal-reconstitution", "name": "Lysimachos’s release and return of the Skepsians", "start": null, "end": null, "date_label": "After Ipsos (301 BCE), before 281 BCE; exact year unknown", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Post-Ipsos and pre-Lysimachos-death bracket. The impossible −306 proxy is removed; −300, if used, is presentation-order only.", "region": "Troad, northwestern Asia Minor", "mechanism": "Royal release from the synoikism and civic return to the Skepsian homeland", "agents": [ "Lysimachos; the Skepsian civic community" ], "victims": [ "Skepsians who had been incorporated into Antigoneia or Alexandreia; the size and composition of the returning cohort are unknown" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Two passages directly support permitted departure and civic return for the Skepsians. This is a bounded reversal under a new authority; it does not imply an equivalent outcome for Cebren or other constituents, and the broad wrapper retires.", "disputes": "The exact return year, cohort size and composition, route, property details, labor effects, coercion during release, and long-term demographic outcome remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Royal release from compelled synoikism followed by implemented civic return at Skepsis", "sources": [ { "title": "Strabo, Geography", "locator": "13.1.33; permitted Skepsian return; Cebrenians remained", "role": "ancient_geography", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_39_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Next-release correction record" }, "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0198%3Abook%3D13%3Achapter%3D1%3Asection%3D33" }, { "title": "Strabo, Geography", "locator": "13.1.52; separate Skepsis passage", "role": "ancient_geography", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_39_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Next-release correction record" } }, { "title": "Getzel M. Cohen, The Hellenistic Settlements in Europe, the Islands, and Asia Minor", "locator": "printed pp. 145–148", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_39_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Next-release correction record" } } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-hellenistic-antigoneia-alexandreia-troas" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Lysimachian withdrawal and return child; excludes Antigonos’s prior incorporation and does not infer an equivalent withdrawal for Cebren or other constituents.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_034", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Post-Ipsos and pre-Lysimachos-death bracket. The impossible −306 proxy is removed; −300, if used, is presentation-order only.", "kind": "open_historical_bracket", "after": -301, "before": -281, "ordering_only": { "value": -300, "use": "presentation_only_not_historical" } }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1783618062, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 82.1638193755 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1440639353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5936064707 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1651998789, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4800121132 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 11.5552061236 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1378042923, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 86.2195707688 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-hellenistic-nikomedes-astakian-transfer-nikomedeia", "name": "Nikomedes I’s transfer of Astakian inhabitants to Nikomedeia", "start": null, "end": null, "date_label": "In the 260s BCE; exact transfer year unknown", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The 264 BCE foundation context does not date the transfer. Historical point dates remain missing; −260 is isolated as a nonhistorical order convention.", "region": "Astakene Gulf, Bithynia", "mechanism": "Ruler-directed transfer of Astakian inhabitants into the newly founded royal city of Nikomedeia", "agents": [ "Nikomedes I; the Astakian inhabitants transferred into his foundation" ], "victims": [ "The inhabitants of Astakos whom Nikomedes transferred; they are not equated with every resident present before Lysimachos’s destruction" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly establish a later population transfer into a durable royal foundation. The transferred share and interim history remain unknown, but the mechanism and successor settlement are distinct from Lysimachos's earlier razing of Astakos.", "disputes": "The exact transfer year, coercive conditions, cohort size, interim history, labor and economic effects, and share of pre-destruction Astakians transferred remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Ruler-directed transfer of Astakian inhabitants into the newly founded city of Nikomedeia", "sources": [ { "title": "Strabo, Geography", "locator": "12.4.2; separate attribution of razing to Lysimachos and transfer to Nikomedeia's founder", "role": "ancient_geography", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_40_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and provenance corrections" }, "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Aabo%3Atlg%2C0099%2C001%3A12%3A4%3A2" }, { "title": "Memnon, History of Heracleia", "locator": "12.1; foundation and opposite-site context only, not direct razing or transfer evidence", "role": "ancient_narrative_context", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_40_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and provenance corrections" } }, { "title": "Getzel M. Cohen, The Hellenistic Settlements in Europe, the Islands, and Asia Minor", "locator": "Astakos/Nikomedeia discussion; source-critical chronology", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_40_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and provenance corrections" } }, { "title": "Bekker-Nielsen, Astakos/Nikomedeia scholarship", "locator": "source-critical geography/context; source packet supplies work/edition crosswalk", "role": "modern_specialist_reference_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_40_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Source and provenance corrections" } } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-hellenistic-astakos-nikomedeia-sequence" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Nikomedian transfer child; excludes Lysimachos’s earlier destruction and does not assert survival or transfer of every pre-destruction Astakian or a common interim residence.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_035", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "The 264 BCE foundation context does not date the transfer. Historical point dates remain missing; −260 is isolated as a nonhistorical order convention.", "kind": "decade_horizon", "decade_bounds": [ -269, -260 ], "ordering_only": { "value": -260, "use": "ordering_only_not_historical" } }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.1484454722, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6780565723, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 65.1940853655, "unknown_bound_high": 97.388428139 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 34.4289395604, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2244302622, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.7268959336, "unknown_bound_high": 85.2838697114 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 14.3641702345, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4572600875, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.5681617388, "unknown_bound_high": 60.8421529855 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 90.426057201 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-hellenistic-tigranes-tigranokerta-forced-concentration", "name": "Tigranes II’s forced concentration at Tigranokerta", "start": null, "end": null, "date_label": "Before 69 BCE; exact dates unknown", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Before Lucullus captured Tigranokerta in 69 BCE; the cited sections do not fix the foundation or transfer year, so both remain UNKNOWN.", "region": "Cappadocia, Cilicia, Armenian Mesopotamia, and Tigranokerta", "mechanism": "Destruction or depopulation of source cities followed by compulsory population concentration and settlement at the new capital", "agents": [ "Tigranes II and his agents; the communities compelled into Tigranokerta" ], "victims": [ "Inhabitants of twelve depopulated Greek cities in Strabo; Greeks from Cilicia and Cappadocia and forced Adiabenians, Assyrians, Gordyenians, and Cappadocians in Plutarch" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Two ancient narrative attestations with partly overlapping content support one ruler-directed forced-concentration program with source-city territorial loss and successor settlement at the new capital. Unresolved dates, counts, and the complete city list do not require an artificial split; Lucullus's later reversal remains separate.", "disputes": "The exact foundation and transfer years, full source-city list, counts, population shares, routes, parcel outcomes, and labor or economic arrangements remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Destruction or depopulation of source cities followed by compulsory multi-population concentration and settlement at Tigranokerta", "sources": [ { "title": "Strabo, Geography", "locator": "11.14.15; compulsory concentration testimony, not twelve independently recoverable events", "role": "ancient_narrative_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_48_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Tigranokerta" } }, { "title": "Plutarch, Life of Lucullus", "locator": "26.1; overlapping ancient testimony, not demonstrated independent corroboration", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_48_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Tigranokerta" }, "url": "https://classics.mit.edu/Plutarch/lucullus.html" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-hellenistic-tigranokerta-transfer" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Tigranid forced-concentration child; excludes Lucullus’s 69 BCE release and return phase and does not split the program into unsupported individual source-city targets.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_038", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Transfer occurred before Lucullus's 69 capture. Neither −69 nor the permitted −70 display sort key supplies a historical transfer date.", "kind": "unresolved_before", "before": -69, "ordering_only": { "value": -70, "use": "presentation_only_never_historical_or_model_date" } }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.4650300907, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7387819212, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 71.2666202611, "unknown_bound_high": 97.388428139 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 62.1754538542, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2410228679, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.9857061994, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8834194118 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.9288434819, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.3153869016, "unknown_bound_high": 80.4256397315 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 20.3504557967, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5147785665, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.4759784622, "unknown_bound_high": 58.9981218145 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-lysandrian-aeginetan-restoration-405-bce", "name": "Lysander’s restoration of surviving Aeginetans to Aegina", "start": -405, "end": -405, "date_label": "405 BCE", "operative_date_start": -405, "operative_date_end": -405, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Xenophon places the action in his 405 BCE sequence after Aegospotamoi and before the blockade of Piraeus.", "region": "Aegina", "mechanism": "Postwar gathering of survivors and formal civic restoration and reoccupation of Aegina after the Athenian settlement", "agents": [ "Lysander and Spartan authority; surviving former Aeginetan inhabitants" ], "victims": [ "As many surviving former inhabitants of Aegina as Lysander could gather; their number, composition, and share of the 431 BCE expellees are unknown" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Xenophon directly supports implemented reoccupation rather than a permission-only return. This postwar restoration has a different authority, direction, and land outcome from the 431 expulsion and is also distinct from the Thyrea episode.", "disputes": "Returnee number and composition, individual routes and property tenure, coercion in the restoration, labor effects, and the proportion of 431 BCE expellees represented remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Organized gathering, return, and civic-territorial reinstatement of surviving Aeginetans after Athenian tenure", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-gr-lysandrian-aeginetan-restoration-405-bce::SRC-01", "title": "Hellenistic coding briefs, physical lines 10 and 14; Xenophon, Hellenica 2.2.9; Plutarch, Life of Lysander 14.3; Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War 2.27.1-2 and 4.57.1-4", "url": "https://www.gutenberg.org/files/1174/1174-h/1174-h.htm", "locator": "Xenophon, Hellenica 2.2.9 at the recorded Gutenberg target, within the edition's 405 BCE sequence, matched Lysander gathering as many former Aeginetan inhabitants as possible and formally reinstating them in their city." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-greek-aegina-expulsion-cleruchy-return" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct 405 BCE restoration child; excludes the 431 BCE expulsion and Athenian settlement and the separately bounded 424 BCE destruction of Aeginetan refugees at Thyrea.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_032", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.3477397841, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7090970085, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 54.8470508962, "unknown_bound_high": 83.9373500448 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1483431835, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 85.1656816515 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.3255104302, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 89.0328695747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3914558561, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 60.8544143905 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1035524222, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 89.6447577815 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-macedonian-alexander-thebes-destruction-distribution-335-bce", "name": "Alexander's destruction of Thebes and disposition of Theban people and territory (335 BCE)", "start": -335, "end": -335, "date_label": "335 BCE", "operative_date_start": -335, "operative_date_end": -335, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Diodorus 17.12.3-14.4 and Arrian 1.8-1.9 place the capture and settlement in 335 BCE; treated as one bounded destruction-and-disposition order.", "region": "Thebes, Boeotia", "mechanism": "Military capture followed by an allied decree to raze the city, sell captives, deny refuge to Theban exiles, garrison the Cadmeia, and distribute non-sacred territory among the allies", "agents": [ "Alexander III of Macedon; Macedonian forces; the allied Greek council and participating Greek allies" ], "victims": [ "Theban inhabitants killed or captured and enslaved; surviving males and specified exempt groups; Theban exiles" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly establish the authorizing coalition, affected community, destruction, territorial distribution, and exclusions. This is a coherent 335 BCE land-disposition event; Cassander's later rebuilding is a separate reversal and the broad wrapper retires.", "disputes": "The sources do not establish exact destinations, recipient shares, reliable population totals, or durable labor and demographic outcomes beyond the immediate captive sale and removal.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "City destruction, killing and enslavement, denial of exile refuge, and distribution of Theban territory", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-gr-macedonian-alexander-thebes-destruction-distribution-335-bce::SRC-01", "title": "Diodorus Siculus, Library of History, Book 17; Arrian, Anabasis of Alexander, Book 1", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/e/roman/texts/diodorus_siculus/17a%2A.html", "locator": "Diodorus 17.13.1-14.4, Loeb printed pp. 153-159" }, { "id": "prospective-gr-macedonian-alexander-thebes-destruction-distribution-335-bce::SRC-02", "title": "Diodorus Siculus, Library of History, Book 17; Arrian, Anabasis of Alexander, Book 1", "url": "https://www.gutenberg.org/files/46976/46976-h/46976-h.htm", "locator": "Arrian, Anabasis 1.8-1.9, headings 'Fall of Thebes' and 'Destruction of Thebes'" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-macedonian-thebes-destruction-restoration" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct prospective child of gr-macedonian-thebes-destruction-restoration: includes only Alexander's 335 BCE destruction and land-disposition order; excludes Cassander's later rebuilding and return.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_039", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.7157958529, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.9641460981, "unknown_bound_high": 95.0366809937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 47.6031199576, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7893720798, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5765738069, "unknown_bound_high": 58.6393658248 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 54.4714552831, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3973147125, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.6423105953, "unknown_bound_high": 81.9108393452 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 71.5968177511, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 46.0495638795, "unknown_bound_high": 81.7316719313 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 16.9423474713, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6183309887, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 10.4759784622, "unknown_bound_high": 48.642879596 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-macedonian-cassander-theban-restoration-316-bce", "name": "Cassander's rebuilding and resettlement of Thebes for surviving Thebans (316 BCE)", "start": -316, "end": -316, "date_label": "316 BCE; often dated 316/15 BCE", "operative_date_start": -316, "operative_date_end": -316, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "316 BCE is the chronology coordinate; 316/15 is the common alternative dating, not a two-year duration.", "region": "Thebes, Boeotia", "mechanism": "Boeotian consent, Cassander's summons of surviving Thebans, rebuilding of the city, and wider Greek material support for resettlement", "agents": [ "Cassander; the consenting Boeotians; surviving Thebans; Greek cities contributing to the rebuilding, including Athens" ], "victims": [ "Surviving Thebans summoned from dispersal for resettlement; the source does not establish that every survivor returned" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly describe an implemented rebuilding and resettlement program under a later authority. Unknown return shares and parcel recovery remain score-level uncertainty, not reasons to collapse the restoration into Alexander's destruction.", "disputes": "The passage does not identify household-level return, prior or new parcel holders, labor arrangements, exact population totals, or a measured long-term demographic outcome.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Summoning surviving Thebans from dispersal, rebuilding the city, and implementing civic resettlement", "sources": [ { "title": "Diodorus Siculus, Library of History", "locator": "19.53.2; Cassander's summons and undertaking", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_39_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Next-release correction record" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Diodorus_Siculus/19C%2A.html" }, { "title": "Diodorus Siculus, Library of History", "locator": "19.54.1–3; Boeotian consent and rebuilding; distinguish 19.54.1 from 19.53.2", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_39_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Next-release correction record" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Diodorus_Siculus/19C%2A.html" }, { "title": "Pausanias, Description of Greece", "locator": "9.7.1–3; restoration testimony", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_39_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Next-release correction record" } }, { "title": "James Whitley, The Destruction of Political Communities in the Second Century BC and the Resilience of the Cretan Polis", "locator": "DOI 10.1017/S0068245423000060; not Edward Harris", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_39_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Next-release correction record" }, "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0068245423000060" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-macedonian-thebes-destruction-restoration" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct prospective child of gr-macedonian-thebes-destruction-restoration: includes only Cassander's later rebuilding and resettlement; excludes Alexander's 335 BCE destruction, enslavement, and land distribution.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_039", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "316 BCE is the chronology coordinate; 316/15 is the common alternative dating, not a two-year duration.", "kind": "chronological_coordinate_with_alternative", "alternative_years": [ -316, -315 ] }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.3477397841, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7090970085, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 54.8470508962, "unknown_bound_high": 83.9373500448 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 19.8337558137, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2985059093, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.9204933148, "unknown_bound_high": 76.0699023806 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.3255104302, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.326002058, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.0802179111, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4800121132 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 11.5552061236 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2281634104, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.1836589623 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-ptolemaic-cyrene-ophellas-restoration-322-bce", "name": "Ptolemaic return of Egypt-based Cyrenian exiles with Ophellas and takeover of Cyrene (322/1 BCE)", "start": -322, "end": -321, "date_label": "322/1 BCE", "operative_date_start": -322, "operative_date_end": -321, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Loeb editor note 73 places the capture in 322/1 BCE, while Will's opening paragraph describes Ophellas as installed by Ptolemy at Cyrene in 322 BCE.", "region": "Cyrene, with exile branches toward Thibron and Egypt", "mechanism": "The Egypt-based exiles petitioned Ptolemy for restoration, returned under Ophellas with land and naval forces, and participated in a campaign that defeated Thibron and transferred control of the cities and country to Ptolemy", "agents": [ "Ptolemy son of Lagus, then satrap of Egypt; Ophellas; the Egypt-based wealthy Cyrenian exiles; Ptolemaic infantry and naval forces; Cyrenian democratic leaders; Thibron" ], "victims": [ "The wealthy Cyrenians expelled by the commons who fled to Egypt and returned with Ophellas; the Thibron-based exile branch is excluded" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources identify the returning cohort, Ptolemy's decision, Ophellas's command, and a resulting transfer of control. This is not merely repatriation: it is a separate armed territorial program from the commons-led expulsion and the Thibron branch.", "disputes": "Neither opened body supplies household counts, parcel-level restoration, labor or fiscal outcomes, or a measured long-term demographic effect of exile and return.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Armed return of an expelled faction followed by defeat of a rival force and Ptolemaic territorial takeover", "sources": [ { "title": "Diodorus Siculus, Library of History", "locator": "18.21.6–9; distinct expulsion and armed return/takeover", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_38_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Binding historical and statistical corrections" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Diodorus_Siculus/18A%2A.html" }, { "title": "Loeb editorial chronology for Diodorus Book 18", "locator": "notes 4 and 73; chronological confusion and 322/1 dating, not ancient text", "role": "modern_editorial_commentary", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_38_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Binding historical and statistical corrections" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Diodorus_Siculus/18A%2A.html" }, { "title": "Édouard Will, Ophellas, Ptolémée, Cassandre et la chronologie (1964)", "locator": "printed p. 320", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_38_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Binding historical and statistical corrections" }, "url": "https://www.persee.fr/doc/rea_0035-2004_1964_num_66_3_3727" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-hellenistic-cyrene-factional-expulsion-restoration-324-322" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct prospective child of gr-hellenistic-cyrene-factional-expulsion-restoration-324-322: includes only the Egypt-based exiles' armed return and ensuing Ptolemaic takeover; excludes the commons' earlier expulsion and the Thibron-based exile branch.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_036", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "One armed-return/takeover event dated 322/1, not a measured two-year duration.", "kind": "dating_window_not_duration", "alternative_years": [ -322, -321 ] }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.849831745, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7421082553, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 65.1940853655, "unknown_bound_high": 90.9832598345 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1440639353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5936064707 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.3255104302, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 89.0328695747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.5471185061, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.2128251614, "unknown_bound_high": 21.768031285 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 39.1711304315, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4171744446, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.3411945824, "unknown_bound_high": 74.6237501217 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-roman-sulla-nola-veteran-allotment-81-78-bce", "name": "Sullan soldier land assignment and early colony at Nola", "start": null, "end": null, "date_label": "c. 81–78 BCE; colony attested c. 80–70 BCE", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Inferred assignment/program window and separate inscriptional attestation range. Camodeca supplies c. 80–70; Thein's narrower 70s is a 2026 authorial statement. −80 is ordering only.", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "reported assignment of Nolan municipal land to soldiers under Sullan limits, with an independently attested early colony; capitulation under fear of siege, not securely stormed capture", "agents": [ "Sullan authority; soldiers or Sullan veterans receiving assignments; Nola as the affected municipality" ], "victims": [ "Unidentified prior holders or users of Nolan municipal land; individual resident outcomes unknown" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The late Liber coloniarum reports assignment of Nolan municipal land to soldiers under Sullan limits. CIL X 1236 independently attests a colony and colonists in Camodeca's c. 80–70 BCE range, but does not independently prove the Sullan assignment. Thein's narrower 70s wording is a transparent 2026 authorial correction. Prior holders, parcels, recipient numbers, resident movement and demographic balance remain unknown.", "disputes": "The assignment year, individual parcels, prior holders, household counts, resident removal, coercive implementation, labor effects, and long-term demographic outcome remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Post-conquest assignment of Nolan municipal land to soldiers or veterans under Sullan survey limits", "sources": [ { "title": "Anonymous, Liber coloniarum", "locator": "236.4; Sullan-limits soldier assignment; late report", "role": "late_ancient_compilation_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_47_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Nola" } }, { "title": "CIL X 1236", "locator": "colony and colonists; does not independently prove Sullan assignment", "role": "ancient_inscription_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_47_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Nola" } }, { "title": "Camodeca, Nola inscriptional study", "locator": "accessible c. 80–70 BCE dating of colony attestation", "role": "modern_epigraphic_scholarship_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_47_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Nola" } }, { "title": "Alexander Thein, authorial correction (3 May 2026)", "locator": "narrower 70s wording; forthcoming argument unavailable", "role": "modern_authorial_correction_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_47_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Nola" } }, { "title": "Federico Santangelo, The Impact of Sulla on Italy and the Mediterranean World", "locator": "printed p. 148 / PDF p. 149; pp. 167–168 / PDF pp. 168–169, note 251; dissertation source criticism", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_47_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Nola" }, "url": "https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1444673/1/U591982.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-roman-sulla-nola-suessula-veteran-allotments" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Nola prospective child of gr-roman-sulla-nola-suessula-veteran-allotments: confined to the Nolan ager and its recipients; excludes Suessula and does not merge the tracts on a shared regional survey.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_042", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Inferred assignment/program window and separate inscriptional attestation range. Camodeca supplies c. 80–70; Thein's narrower 70s is a 2026 authorial statement. −80 is ordering only.", "kind": "program_window_and_attestation", "program_window": [ -81, -78 ], "attestation_window": [ -80, -70 ], "ordering_only": { "value": -80, "use": "ordering_only_not_historical" } }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "POST_V6_SOURCE_REVIEW_OVERRIDE", "provenance": "post_v6_cutoff_explicit_family_projection_v1:B47-02", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.7571708772, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8418784311, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 67.9877203218, "unknown_bound_high": 83.7998772073 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.0926796844, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.6339842195, "unknown_bound_high": 95.3660157805 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 30.8820153683, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3307046201, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.2128251614, "unknown_bound_high": 77.142363148 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6065143003 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-roman-sulla-suessula-veteran-foundation-81-78-bce", "name": "Reported Sullan-law veteran land assignment at Suessula", "start": null, "end": null, "date_label": "Sullan period, probably c. 82–78 BCE; exact year unknown", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The opened Suessula passage gives a Sullan legal and surveying attribution but no exact foundation or assignment year; both year fields remain UNKNOWN.", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "reported Sullan-law foundation and veteran assignment using Sullan limits in the late Liber coloniarum; contemporary local corroboration and realized demographic outcome unknown", "agents": [ "Sullan authority; veterans receiving assignments; Suessula as the affected community" ], "victims": [ "Unidentified prior Suessulan landholders or users; individual outcomes unknown" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The anonymous late Liber coloniarum reports Sullan-law foundation and veteran land assignment at Suessula. This specific report does not acquire independent corroboration from modern repetitions, imperial duoviri, regional survey geometry or gazetteers. Prior holders, parcels, recipient numbers, realized settlement and demographic durability remain unknown; the tract remains distinct from Nola.", "disputes": "The exact year, recipient number, parcel boundaries, prior landholders, resident displacement, implementation violence, economic effect, and demographic durability are not supplied.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Foundation under Sullan law and assignment of Suessulan land to veteran settlers", "sources": [ { "title": "Anonymous, Liber coloniarum", "locator": "237.5; Sullan-law foundation and veteran assignment; single late uneven witness", "role": "late_ancient_compilation_pointer", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_47_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Suessula" } }, { "title": "Federico Santangelo, The Impact of Sulla on Italy and the Mediterranean World", "locator": "printed p. 146 / PDF p. 147, Suessula discussion and note 152; modern source criticism, not independent ancient corroboration", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_47_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "### Suessula" }, "url": "https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1444673/1/U591982.pdf" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-roman-sulla-nola-suessula-veteran-allotments" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Suessula prospective child of gr-roman-sulla-nola-suessula-veteran-allotments: confined to Suessulan land and recipients; excludes Nola and rejects combination based only on a proposed shared survey.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_042", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "A probable Sullan-period horizon, not an exact year or measured continuous activity; −80 is ordering only.", "kind": "probable_period_horizon", "period_bounds": [ -82, -78 ], "ordering_only": { "value": -80, "use": "ordering_only_not_historical" } }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "POST_V6_SOURCE_REVIEW_OVERRIDE", "provenance": "post_v6_cutoff_explicit_family_projection_v1:B47-03", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.2852611595, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7387819212, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 63.0072090913, "unknown_bound_high": 89.1290169691 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 63.8843598408, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4793274306, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.6215260556, "unknown_bound_high": 82.6887829993 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6065143003 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-samian-exile-restoration-322-bce", "name": "Perdiccas's restoration of Samian exiles and the city and territory of Samos (322/1 BCE)", "start": -322, "end": -321, "date_label": "322/1 BCE", "operative_date_start": -322, "operative_date_end": -321, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Diodorus places Perdiccas's restoration after the Lamian War and gives a forty-three-year exile; the AIO page describes the restoration as 322 BCE, while the Syll. 312 page dates its later honorary decree soon after 321 BCE. The bounded date is therefore 322/1 BCE.", "region": "Samos, eastern Aegean", "mechanism": "Royal restoration followed by Perdiccas restoring Samos's city and territory and bringing the exiles home, ending the Athenian cleruchic tenure", "agents": [ "Perdiccas acting for the post-Alexander royal authority; returning Samian exiles; Gorgos and Minneon as restoration advocates; Athenian cleruchs whose island tenure ended" ], "victims": [ "Samian exiles returning after forty-three years; the sources do not give their number or composition, and they do not identify the number or disposition of departing cleruchs" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly establish restored territorial tenure and physical return after the cleruchic program. The outcome for departing cleruchs is unknown and must not be invented, but the later restoration remains a distinct event under the event-unit rule.", "disputes": "Returnee count and composition, exact implementation date within 322/1, routes, individual parcels, departing-cleruch disposition, coercion, and labor effects remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Royal restoration of Samos's city and territory followed by implemented return of Samian exiles", "sources": [ { "title": "Diodorus Siculus, Library of History", "locator": "18.18.6; post-Alexander authorization context", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_38_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Samos public-authoring decision" } }, { "title": "Diodorus Siculus, Library of History", "locator": "18.18.9; restoration of city/territory and return", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_38_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Samos public-authoring decision" } }, { "title": "Attic Inscriptions Online, IG XII 6, 1 264", "locator": "inscription: earlier Athenian civic body; not a returnee census", "role": "inscriptional_context", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_38_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Samos public-authoring decision" }, "url": "https://www.atticinscriptions.com/inscription/IGXII61/264" }, { "title": "Attic Inscriptions Online, commentary on IG XII 6, 1 264", "locator": "editorial restoration chronology after the Lamian War", "role": "modern_editorial_commentary", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_38_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Samos public-authoring decision" }, "url": "https://www.atticinscriptions.com/inscription/IGXII61/264" }, { "title": "Sylloge Inscriptionum Graecarum 312", "locator": "named advocates and some exiles; not the origin of the whole returnee body", "role": "inscription_in_modern_edition", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_38_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Samos public-authoring decision" } } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-athenian-samos-cleruchy-expulsion-return" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct restoration child of gr-athenian-samos-cleruchy-expulsion-return: includes only the later return and restored Samian island tenure; excludes the 365/4 expulsion, cleruchic allotment phases, and Lysander's separate 404 BCE factional expulsion.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_031", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "One restoration within the 322/1 dating window, not continuous activity across two years.", "kind": "dating_window_not_duration", "alternative_years": [ -322, -321 ] }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 78.2781340149, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.832851807, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 65.1940853655, "unknown_bound_high": 81.9089046622 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 24.3155933816, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7399992605, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 17.9935211218, "unknown_bound_high": 43.9935950683 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1608021791, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.0802179111, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 4.4611274324, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7630974693, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 3.4042750538, "unknown_bound_high": 27.0945281264 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1035524222, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 89.6447577815 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-scionaean-restoration-405-bce", "name": "Lysander's restoration of Scionaeans after the forced end of Athenian control", "start": -405, "end": -405, "date_label": "c. 405 BCE", "operative_date_start": -405, "operative_date_end": -405, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Conventional campaign-sequence date; Plutarch does not state the year. The inherited −413 parent midpoint is not a historical date.", "region": "Scione and the land granted to Plataeans", "mechanism": "After Athenian control was forcibly ended, Lysander restored the Scionaeans to their homes and city; the earlier Athenian killing, enslavement, and Plataean settlement are excluded from this mechanism", "agents": [ "Lysander and Spartan authority; Scionaeans restored to their homes; Athenians whose control was forcibly ended before restoration" ], "victims": [ "Scionaeans restored home; the source does not identify whether returnees were original survivors, descendants, or a mix, nor their number or route" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Plutarch directly describes implemented homeward restoration after Athenian control was forcibly ended, not a bare permission to return. The target is bounded from Athens's earlier killing, enslavement, and Plataean land grant; unknown returnee composition and departing-population outcomes remain explicit uncertainties.", "disputes": "The exact date, returnee number and composition, route, individual parcel recovery, labor effects, and duration or demographic durability of the restored population remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Restoration of Scionaeans to their homes and city after the forced end of Athenian control", "sources": [ { "title": "Plutarch, Life of Lysander", "locator": "14.3; forced end of Athenian control and Scionaean homeward restoration; no total-clearance inference", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_32_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Scione restoration authorization" }, "url": "https://lexundria.com/plut_lys/1.14.3/prr" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-greek-scione-destruction-plataean-settlement-return" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct restoration child of gr-greek-scione-destruction-plataean-settlement-return: includes only Lysander's later restoration after Athenian withdrawal; excludes Athens's earlier destruction, enslavement, and Plataean land grant.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_033", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Conventional campaign-sequence date; Plutarch does not state the year. The inherited −413 parent midpoint is not a historical date.", "kind": "conventional_campaign_sequence" }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.1484454722, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6780565723, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 65.1940853655, "unknown_bound_high": 97.388428139 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 11.4560128345, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1483431835, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.6994214139, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8651030654 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 23.2371992826, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7221604762, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 44.5649392772 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-algeria-harki-reprisal-flight-resettlement-1961-1965", "name": "French abandonment, reprisal, flight, transfer, and camp confinement of former Harkis and their families", "start": 1961, "end": 1961, "date_label": "from 1961 CE", "operative_date_start": 1961, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "The Chemins de mémoire account notes an initial personnel reduction in 1961, about 40,000 Harkis still armed in March 1962, chaotic demobilization and reprisals from spring 1962, military transfers through the end of 1963, and camp confinement continuing for years; the opened locators do not supply a defensible terminal year.", "region": "North Africa and Europe", "mechanism": "Chaotic demobilization and disarmament, reprisals including killing, dispossession and imprisonment, official obstruction of departure, military and self-organized flight to France, improvised camp confinement, and unequal nationality and rights treatment", "agents": [ "French military authorities and ministries directing demobilization and restricting transfer; former Harkis and other threatened Algerian auxiliaries; perpetrators of the reprisals are not individually resolved by the opened locators" ], "victims": [ "Former Harkis, defined in the museum source as Algerians who served the French army or administration, and their families; related former auxiliaries and other threatened Algerians appear in broader transfer totals and are not converted into a Harki-only count" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly support violence, dispossession, obstruction of departure, implemented flight, and camp confinement for a specifically bounded former-auxiliary cohort and families. Broader threatened-Algerian totals and the Pied-Noir stream are excluded rather than blended into this child.", "disputes": "The 1961 onset and terminal year, exact perpetrator and reprisal totals, Harki-only transfer counts beyond the page's partial figure, individual routes, property losses in Algeria, and labor effects remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Threat-driven flight and transfer after reprisals and dispossession, followed by territorial confinement in French camps", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-algeria-harki-reprisal-flight-resettlement-1961-1965::SRC-01", "title": "Musée national de l’histoire de l’immigration, 1962; François-Xavier Hautreux, La guerre d’Algérie des harkis, Chemins de mémoire / Les Chemins de la Mémoire no. 238", "url": "https://www.histoire-immigration.fr/exposition-permanente/1962", "locator": "At the recorded museum target, the headings 'Rapatriés et rapatriements' and 'La relégation des harkis' matched the Harki cohort definition, summer 1962 violence and reprisals, French efforts to limit departure, transfer of Harkis and families to France, and years of confinement in transit centers and forest villages." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-algeria-decolonization-exodus" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Harki and family child limited to threatened former auxiliaries, obstructed transfer, flight, and the French camp and legal regime; excludes the separately named Pied-Noir and European exodus, and does not treat broader threatened-Algerian totals as Harki-only counts.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_054", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.6837585096, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7924515741, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 75.0322934679, "unknown_bound_high": 95.7871360629 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 46.722990755, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3142999433, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.6850333471, "unknown_bound_high": 83.2550390128 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2261803376, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.623154927, "unknown_bound_high": 93.0051211686 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.326002058, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.4702088262, "unknown_bound_high": 95.8700030283 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 26.3816941633, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3730735329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.8423118448, "unknown_bound_high": 72.5349585571 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-athenian-destruction-colonization-melos-416-bce", "name": "Athenian killing, enslavement, takeover, and colonization of Melos in 416 BCE", "start": -416, "end": -416, "date_label": "416 BCE", "operative_date_start": -416, "operative_date_end": -416, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Thucydides 5.116 directly reports the surrender, executions, enslavement, and colony; the Brownson editor note in the opened Xenophon passage dates the Melian surrender to 416 BCE, while Xenophon 2.2.9 describes the later Lysandrian restoration that is excluded.", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "Siege and unconditional surrender followed by execution of captured men of military age, sale of women and children into slavery, Athenian takeover, and installation of a colony of 500 men", "agents": [ "Athens and the Athenian force sent under Philocrates; captured Melians; 500 incoming Athenian colonists" ], "victims": [ "Captured Melian men of military age who were killed, Melian women and children sold into slavery, and the wider Melian community displaced from control of the island; incoming Athenian colonists are a separate successor cohort" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Thucydides directly joins the coercive destruction to island takeover and settlement by 500 Athenian men. Lysander's later removal of settlers and Melian restoration is a separate event, so the inherited sequence wrapper retires.", "disputes": "The record does not establish precise killed or enslaved totals, destinations, settler household composition, land allotments, or a detailed governing and labor regime; those constructs remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Killing and enslavement of the Melian community, Athenian island takeover, and installation of a successor colony", "sources": [ { "title": "Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War", "locator": "5.116; destruction and 500 incoming men, not households", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_31_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Melos authorization" }, "url": "https://www.yorku.ca/pswarney/Texts/thuc-5-116.htm" }, { "title": "Xenophon, Hellenica", "locator": "2.2.9; restoration boundary, with Carleton L. Brownson editorial chronology distinguished", "role": "ancient_narrative_context", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_31_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Melos authorization" }, "url": "https://cts.perseids.org/read/greekLit/tlg0032/tlg001/perseus-eng2/2.2.1-2.2.12" }, { "title": "Plutarch, Life of Lysander", "locator": "14.3; excluded restoration context", "role": "ancient_narrative_context", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_31_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Melos authorization" } } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-athenian-melos-destruction-colony" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct 416 BCE Athenian destruction and colonization child; excludes Lysander’s later restoration of Melians after Athenian defeat and does not count that reverse movement or restored tenure here.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_008", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.9101311677, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8452047652, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.9089046622, "unknown_bound_high": 97.388428139 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.5926001945, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1440639353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.3988428278, "unknown_bound_high": 88.9924492985 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5647834195, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.478341948, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 74.6114433387, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3730735329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.8355547595, "unknown_bound_high": 90.5282014717 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6187252458, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 38.1274754233 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-channel-islands-nazi-deportations-1940-1945", "name": "Nazi arrests and deportations of Jersey residents to mainland prisons and camps, 1942–1945", "start": 1942, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1942–1945 CE", "operative_date_start": 1942, "operative_date_end": 1945, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The mass internment order was issued in September 1942, separate resistance-related arrests are dated to 1944, and the interned families and single men were liberated and repatriated in April–May 1945.", "region": "Western Europe", "mechanism": "Retaliatory selection and compulsory deportation to internment camps, plus punitive arrest and transfer to concentration camps or prisons for helping an escaped forced labourer or disseminating prohibited news; liberation and repatriation followed in 1945", "agents": [ "Hitler as issuer of the September 1942 order; German occupation, police, prison, and camp authorities; Jersey authorities who protested the mass deportation" ], "victims": [ "People not born in Jersey and their families, about 1,200 of whom were deported under the retaliatory order; separately arrested Jersey resistance helpers and BBC-news disseminators, whose cases are not folded into the 1,200 count" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The institutional source directly identifies the coercive order, selected cohort, implemented deportations, and destinations. Later repatriation limits durability but does not erase the bounded territorial removal; the voluntary 1940 evacuation remains excluded from this child.", "disputes": "The page lacks a comprehensive roster, complete arrest chronology, destination for every individual, and evidence sufficient to code a labor or economic regime for the deported Jersey cohort.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Compulsory retaliatory deportation from Jersey to mainland camps, prisons, and concentration camps", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-channel-islands-nazi-deportations-1940-1945::SRC-01", "title": "Jersey Heritage, The German Occupation", "url": "https://www.jerseyheritage.org/history/the-german-occupation/", "locator": "The Jersey Heritage page opened and the recorded paragraphs were present, including the September 1942 order, approximately 1,200 deportees, destinations, and April-May 1945 repatriation." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "europe-channel-islands-evacuation-deportation" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct occupation-period Nazi coercive-removal child bounded to Jersey evidence; excludes the voluntary June 1940 evacuation to Britain and does not claim that the September order caused every separately described arrest or that the locator covers every Channel Island.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_029", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.8145841008, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.8145841008, "unknown_bound_high": 84.8145841008 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25.3289010772, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8981214944, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.7484304871, "unknown_bound_high": 32.9362810468 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.8354500624, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5018029194, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.5238006069, "unknown_bound_high": 79.3435086646 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-christmas-island-phosphate-colonial-bound-labor", "name": "British annexation, phosphate-company settlement, and indentured migrant labour on Christmas Island", "start": 1888, "end": 1888, "date_label": "from 1888 CE", "operative_date_start": 1888, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "Britain annexed the island and the first European settlement was established in 1888; phosphate mining began in 1897 and the first major shipment followed in 1900. The opened locators identify later operator changes in 1948 and 1981 but do not date the end of indentured or otherwise bound labour, so the terminal year remains UNKNOWN.", "region": "Indian Ocean", "mechanism": "Annexation and Crown lease for phosphate extraction, company settlement, imported indentured labour supervised by British managers, severe early dietary and living conditions, and later commissioner operation of the mining interests", "agents": [ "British Crown authorities; John Murray and George Clunies-Ross as lessees; the Christmas Island Phosphate Company; British managers; the British Phosphate Commissioners after their 1948 acquisition" ], "victims": [ "Indentured migrant phosphate workers, including several hundred Chinese labourers, with Malay and Sikh workers also directly identified; the sources do not supply complete labour-stream dates, contracts, or counts" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The opened government histories identify a separate island, annexation and lease, company settlement, imported indentured cohorts, and controlled extractive labor regime. This coerced labor-settlement process is distinct from ordinary voluntary settlement on an empty island and from the Cocos estate system.", "disputes": "The record supports every domain generally but leaves the terminal year, exact indenture terms, enforcement practices, worker routes, complete stream chronology, and cohort totals unresolved.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Colonial phosphate concession and durable company settlement sustained by imported indentured labor under severe territorial work controls", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-christmas-island-phosphate-colonial-bound-labor::SRC-01", "title": "Christmas Island National Park, History; National Archives of Australia, Christmas Island fact sheet; Pulu Keeling National Park, History and culture, opened for the Cocos comparison", "url": "https://christmasislandnationalpark.gov.au/discover/history/", "locator": "The Parks Australia page opened at the recorded Settlement and phosphate mining heading and contained the cited 1888 annexation, Crown lease, company, indentured-worker, supervision, and mortality details." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "indian-ocean-christmas-cocos-colonial-labor" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Christmas Island phosphate-extraction child; excludes the Cocos coconut and copra estate, Home Island land regime, company-store currency, and Cocos-Malay community, while making no unsupported claim about every Christmas Island labour stream.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_043", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 47.7641283803, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7721264581, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 36.8799472694, "unknown_bound_high": 59.6673014617 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 38.3288945648, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9073203156, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.7765847135, "unknown_bound_high": 44.0445531526 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 86.4973316302, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5075371019, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.9006050142, "unknown_bound_high": 93.1468948282 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 47.4473833161, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7711000092, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 36.5866777123, "unknown_bound_high": 59.4766767906 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 13.2193833473, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.307410311, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.0637747456, "unknown_bound_high": 73.3227436491 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 82.4252918906, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5780987827, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.6499609022, "unknown_bound_high": 89.8400826364 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-cocos-keeling-estate-bound-labor", "name": "Clunies-Ross coconut-estate settlement and controlled imported labour on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands", "start": 1827, "end": 1827, "date_label": "from 1827 CE", "operative_date_start": 1827, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "John Clunies-Ross established his settlement and recruited Malay workers in 1827, gained sole control after Hare left in 1831, and the family estate persisted into the Australian-territory period. Most land was purchased by Australia in 1978 and the coconut-fibre industry ceased in 1980, but the opened locators do not establish one exact terminal year for all labour, currency, land, and movement controls.", "region": "Indian Ocean", "mechanism": "Estate settlement and recruitment of imported labour for coconut and copra production; family sole rule and Crown-backed land tenure; payment in Cocos rupees redeemable only at the company store; treatment of Home Island as private property; and controls whose planned reform included ending token money, aligning pay and conditions, and permitting freedom of movement", "agents": [ "John Clunies-Ross and the Clunies-Ross family and estate; British Crown and colonial authorities that annexed the islands and granted land; Australian authorities whose early administration left Home Island practice substantially unchanged" ], "victims": [ "Recruited Malay workers and descendants of imported labourers described as principally Malaysian, Indonesian, Chinese, and African in origin; the later Cocos-Malay community. A specifically Javanese subgroup and complete worker counts are not separately established by the opened locators." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly establish a durable estate population and territorial labor-control system, including treatment of Home Island as private property and restrictions later targeted for reform. It is independently bounded from Christmas Island's phosphate regime.", "disputes": "The page establishes estate dependence and company currency but does not directly describe violence, contract enforcement, or movement compulsion, and it does not fix one end date or complete worker counts.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Private estate settlement using imported labor under Crown-backed land tenure, company currency, unequal conditions, and movement controls", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-cocos-keeling-estate-bound-labor::SRC-01", "title": "Pulu Keeling National Park, History and culture; House of Representatives Standing Committee on Legal and Constitutional Affairs, Islands in the Sun, chapter 4; United Nations, Report of the Special Committee, A/10023/Rev.1 Vol. III, chapter XVII annex", "url": "https://pulukeelingnationalpark.gov.au/discover/history-culture/", "locator": "The Parks Australia page opened and contained the recorded 1826-1827 settlements, Malay recruitment, company-only Cocos rupees, Clunies-Ross rule, annexation, land purchase, and industry closure." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "indian-ocean-christmas-cocos-colonial-labor" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Cocos coconut and copra estate child bounded to the Cocos land base, Clunies-Ross authority, imported-labour descendants, company currency, and Home Island controls; excludes Christmas Island phosphate annexation, company and commissioner mining, and its Chinese, Malay, and Sikh labour streams.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_043", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 19.3347749762, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9351189079, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.0803136602, "unknown_bound_high": 24.5684228705 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 17.9382230666, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6171675771, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 11.0708896666, "unknown_bound_high": 49.3541319613 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 88.9803490318, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6489732266, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 57.7458642179, "unknown_bound_high": 92.8485415548 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 36.250999536, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7110536105, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 25.776404105, "unknown_bound_high": 54.6710430531 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 13.2193833473, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5696683381, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.5306641423, "unknown_bound_high": 50.5638303311 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 81.3492513053, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.256663766, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.8794052046, "unknown_bound_high": 95.2130286005 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-israeli-settlements-golan-heights", "name": "Israeli settlements and associated land-control in the occupied Syrian Golan (1967–2025 evidence window)", "start": 1967, "end": 2025, "date_label": "1967–2025 CE", "operative_date_start": 1967, "operative_date_end": 2025, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Security Council resolution 497, operative paragraph 3, identifies Syrian territory occupied since June 1967. A/79/975–E/2025/82, paragraphs 95–97, documents settlement and land-control conditions through early 2025. The end year is the source-review evidence cutoff, not a finding that the process ended.", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "Government-supported settlement establishment and expansion; occupation-related displacement and village destruction; settler control of occupied land; land confiscation and restrictions on movement, housing, and infrastructure; residential and commercial development on Syrian agricultural land; and the imposition of Israeli laws, jurisdiction, and administration addressed by resolution 497", "agents": [ "Government and authorities of Israel; Israeli settlers; Israeli military occupation authorities; Syrian residents of the occupied Golan" ], "victims": [ "Syrians displaced since 1967 and residents of the five remaining Syrian villages, particularly Druze farmers whose agricultural land and livelihoods are affected; exact household membership and a person-level displaced cohort are not established by the opened locators" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The UN sources directly join territory-specific settlement expansion to Syrian displacement, village destruction, land control, and legal-administrative incorporation. The Golan's population and land system is separate from the West Bank and East Jerusalem child, so the broad territorial wrapper retires.", "disputes": "All domains have opened support, while parcel-level ownership, household membership, settlement-by-settlement chronology, exact displaced-person membership, and developments after March 2025 remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Government-supported settlement, occupation-era displacement and village destruction, land confiscation, and control of Syrian agricultural land in the Golan", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-israeli-settlements-golan-heights::SRC-01", "title": "United Nations, A/79/975–E/2025/82, Economic and social repercussions of the Israeli occupation; United Nations Security Council resolution 497 (1981)", "url": "https://documents.un.org/api/symbol/access?l=en&s=A/79/975&t=pdf:", "locator": "Both UN endpoints resolved to official documents. The A/79/975 endpoint returned the official body despite its pdf-colon format token, and paragraphs 94-97 and resolution 497 were locatable as recorded." }, { "id": "prospective-israeli-settlements-golan-heights::SRC-02", "title": "United Nations, A/79/975–E/2025/82, Economic and social repercussions of the Israeli occupation; United Nations Security Council resolution 497 (1981)", "url": "https://documents.un.org/api/symbol/access?s=S/RES/497(1981)&l=en&t=pdf", "locator": "Both UN endpoints resolved to official documents. The A/79/975 endpoint returned the official body despite its pdf-colon format token, and paragraphs 94-97 and resolution 497 were locatable as recorded." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlas-israeli-settlements-opt" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct territorial child of atlas-israeli-settlements-opt: limited to the occupied Syrian Golan and the Syrian population-land relationship there; excludes the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Gaza, and Palestinian settlement mechanisms.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_017", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.8107047688, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7421082553, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 67.3913736794, "unknown_bound_high": 93.1805481485 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 65.208177244, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5187677889, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.8279019265, "unknown_bound_high": 81.9511230374 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.8725312725, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4332285753, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.8701486251, "unknown_bound_high": 89.5472910984 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.4298359102, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4791232358, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.2654476406, "unknown_bound_high": 85.3531240631 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 67.1456181315, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.9350526267, "unknown_bound_high": 87.3099668081 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 78.1520356242, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.1520356242, "unknown_bound_high": 78.1520356242 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-israeli-settlements-west-bank-east-jerusalem", "name": "Israeli settlement advancement and associated Palestinian land-control mechanisms in the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem (2023–2024 evidence window)", "start": 2024, "end": 2024, "date_label": "through 2024 CE", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": 2024, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known end used only as a model coordinate; onset year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "A/HRC/58/73 covers 1 November 2023 through 31 October 2024 and describes settlement transfer, maintenance, and expansion as ongoing. The cited paragraphs do not state the historical start or completion of the wider system, so the start year remains UNKNOWN and 2024 is an evidence cutoff rather than an end finding.", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "Transfer of administrative and legal powers from military to civilian government; settlement planning and approval; outpost regularization; infrastructure development; land designation, seizure, and allocation; state-land declarations; discriminatory construction enforcement; and settlement and housing-plan expansion that fragments Palestinian territory", "agents": [ "Government of Israel; civilian officials including the Additional Minister and Settlement Administration; the Israeli military commander and Civil Administration; Israeli settlers" ], "victims": [ "Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, affected by land seizures, discriminatory planning and building enforcement, coercive transfer pressures, and territorial fragmentation; Israeli civilians transferred to or maintained in settlements; exact household membership is not established" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The opened report identifies one West Bank and East Jerusalem settlement-administration system with direct land-control mechanisms and effects on Palestinian territory. It excludes the Golan and does not infer household membership; a fresh profile is required because the wrapper mixed distinct territories.", "disputes": "The report supports all domains for its evidence window but leaves the wider system's historical start, parcel and household membership, individual outcomes, and post-31-October-2024 developments unresolved.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Settlement planning and expansion, land designation and seizure, administrative transfer, discriminatory enforcement, and Palestinian territorial fragmentation", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-israeli-settlements-west-bank-east-jerusalem::SRC-01", "title": "United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, A/HRC/58/73, Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and in the occupied Syrian Golan", "url": "https://documents.un.org/api/symbol/access?l=en&s=A/HRC/58/73&t=pdf:", "locator": "The UN endpoint resolved to the official A/HRC/58/73 body despite returning DOCX rather than PDF, and paragraphs 2-5 and 8-15 were present and usable at the stated locator." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlas-israeli-settlements-opt" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct territorial child of atlas-israeli-settlements-opt: limited to the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Palestinian population-land relationship there; excludes the occupied Syrian Golan and the Gaza resettlement discussion outside the cited paragraph range.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_017", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.0798669882, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6780565723, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 54.2986801175, "unknown_bound_high": 86.4930228909 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 77.9448579402, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5349909297, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.6997920114, "unknown_bound_high": 88.2006990457 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 92.268471581, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.3185460724, "unknown_bound_high": 98.3812250771 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 89.32481983 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.6737884871, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.8147486374, "unknown_bound_high": 79.9250014672 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 84.775645921, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7792553267, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 66.0618736596, "unknown_bound_high": 88.1363409882 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-libyan-jewish-remnant-expulsion-property-sequestration-1967-1970", "name": "Violence-driven departure and 1970 asset confiscation and final expulsion of Libya's Jewish remnant (1967–1970)", "start": 1967, "end": 1970, "date_label": "1967–1970 CE", "operative_date_start": 1967, "operative_date_end": 1970, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The CDEC final-exodus paragraph dates renewed violence and mass relocation to 1967, Gaddafi's rise to 1969, and decrees confiscating assets and producing final expulsion to 1970.", "region": "Libya and Israel", "mechanism": "Renewed anti-Jewish violence and nationwide insecurity causing near-total relocation in 1967; short returns to sell or reclaim assets; and 1970 decrees confiscating assets and producing final expulsion", "agents": [ "Perpetrators of the 1967 anti-Jewish violence, not identified in the opened passage; Libyan Jews resident during the 1967 crisis; Libyan state authorities under the post-1969 regime" ], "victims": [ "Jews resident in Libya when violence escalated in 1967, including the smaller number who initially stayed or returned briefly before the 1970 confiscation and final expulsion; exact counts and individual residence histories are not stated" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly identifies the resident remnant, renewed violence, near-total relocation, limited returns, and 1970 confiscation and expulsion. This later territorial and property-loss sequence is distinct from the held 1945–1952 mixed-motive record.", "disputes": "The page does not provide a complete asset inventory, household-level ownership and destinations, decree-by-decree implementation record, compensation result, or labor-market outcome.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Violence-driven departure of Libya's remaining Jewish community followed by asset confiscation and final expulsion", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-libyan-jewish-remnant-expulsion-property-sequestration-1967-1970::SRC-01", "title": "CDEC Foundation, Jews of Libya", "url": "https://trame.cdec.it/en/focus/jews-of-libya/", "locator": "Section 'The end of the Jewish community,' paragraphs covering 1967 violence through the 1970 decrees" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-jewish-departure-libya" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct later child of mena-jewish-departure-libya: limited to Jews resident in Libya during the 1967 crisis and the 1967–1970 departure, confiscation, and expulsion sequence; excludes people documented as having departed in the revised 1949–1952 mass-emigration child.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_047", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.7117812001, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9322944446, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.0440285585, "unknown_bound_high": 84.8145841008 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 59.5134405704, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7132850011, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4500445218, "unknown_bound_high": 71.1215444134 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 74.4013147875, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.4013147875, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 25.514632222, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 16.4104735836, "unknown_bound_high": 52.0925816353 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.9511807345, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 77.9511807345, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-portugal-muslim-expulsion-1496-1497", "name": "Manuel I’s expulsion of Portugal’s Muslim communities (1496–1497)", "start": 1496, "end": 1497, "date_label": "1496–1497 CE", "operative_date_start": 1496, "operative_date_end": 1497, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The review identifies Manuel’s expulsion announcement on 4 December 1496 and says Portugal’s Muslim minority was largely expelled in 1497; exact individual departure dates are not supplied.", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "Royal expulsion followed by departure from Portugal; unlike the Jewish cohort, Muslims were allowed to leave with their children rather than forcibly retained and baptized.", "agents": [ "King Manuel I and Portuguese royal authorities; Portugal’s Muslim communities" ], "victims": [ "Muslim subjects of Portugal, including children permitted to depart with their families; the population count and individual destinations are unresolved." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly distinguishes this territorial removal from the Jewish forced-retention mechanism and establishes the affected community, ordering and implementation years, and family-departure rule. Unknown totals and destinations remain score-level uncertainty.", "disputes": "The review does not give a complete decree text, locality roster, household or property inventory, exact totals, labor effects, or durable destination-level demographic accounting.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Royal expulsion and implemented family departure of Portugal's Muslim communities", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-portugal-muslim-expulsion-1496-1497::SRC-01", "title": "Ariel Hessayon, review of François Soyer, The Persecution of the Jews and Muslims of Portugal, Reviews in History review 797", "url": "https://reviews.history.ac.uk/review/797/print/", "locator": "Review body, paragraphs on Manuel I's 4 December 1496 sermon and Portugal's Muslim minority in 1497" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-forced-conversion-jews-muslims-portugal-1496" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Muslim-community removal child; excludes the Jewish forced-retention and baptism cohort, and the shared Manueline policy is context rather than a separately countable movement.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_026", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.7117812001, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9322944446, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.0440285585, "unknown_bound_high": 84.8145841008 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 27.511452648, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4189474744, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.5258536044, "unknown_bound_high": 69.6311061629 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.469450881, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.4702088262, "unknown_bound_high": 81.5251207227 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2682468569, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 73.1753143067 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-saint-pierre-miquelon-british-deportation-1778", "name": "British seizure, resident deportation, and settlement destruction at Saint-Pierre and Miquelon (1778–1783 return boundary)", "start": 1778, "end": 1783, "date_label": "1778–1783 CE", "operative_date_start": 1778, "operative_date_end": 1783, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The cited sources date the British conquest and removal to 1778 and identify French restoration and permitted resident return in 1783 as the closing boundary.", "region": "North Atlantic", "mechanism": "British seizure followed by removal of inhabitants to France and destruction of their homes; French restoration in 1783 permitted residents to return and ended this removal interval.", "agents": [ "Newfoundland governor John Montagu and the British expedition; the French colonial population of Saint-Pierre and Miquelon" ], "victims": [ "Island inhabitants sent to France, including documented Miquelon residents and families with Île-Royale or Acadian backgrounds; the complete deportee count is not supplied at the opened locators." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly establish conquest, outward removal, residential destruction, and an actual 1783 return boundary. The later 1793 seizure involved a new resident cohort and removal program, so the broad wrapper retires.", "disputes": "The case evidence supports each domain sparsely but does not supply a complete deportee count, resident composition, vessel-by-vessel routes, full losses, or the proportion that actually returned.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "British seizure, deportation of island residents to France, and destruction of their homes", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-saint-pierre-miquelon-british-deportation-1778::SRC-01", "title": "Nicolas Landry, Les dossiers personnels des réfugiés de l’île-Royale et de Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon au Ministère de la Marine et des Colonies, 1763–1815; Olaf Uwe Janzen, The Restoration to France (1763–1815)", "url": "https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/MCR/article/download/29272/1882524451/1882524154", "locator": "The UNB PDF opened and the recorded printed-page material was locatable, including inhabitants returned to France after the 1778 conquest, interrupted island residence, property-loss claims, and intended 1783 re-establishment." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlantic-saint-pierre-british-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct 1778 seizure-and-removal child closed by the 1783 restoration and return; excludes the new 1793 seizure, the 1794 resident evacuation, and the later depopulated interval.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_013", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.188629402, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8951170479, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.0440285585, "unknown_bound_high": 88.5323237711 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 4.8805321822, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8820517642, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.3048820216, "unknown_bound_high": 16.0997056004 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 74.4013147875, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.4013147875, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 15.4276923304, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8586239999, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2465868986, "unknown_bound_high": 27.3841869046 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-saint-pierre-miquelon-british-deportation-1793-1815", "name": "British seizure and phased evacuation of Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, followed by wartime depopulation (1793–1815)", "start": 1793, "end": 1815, "date_label": "1793–1815 CE", "operative_date_start": 1793, "operative_date_end": 1815, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Janzen dates the seizure to 1793, immediate removal of the seasonal fishermen and garrison to 1793, resident evacuation to 1794, and the islands’ deserted condition until repopulation in 1816; 1815 is therefore the last full deserted year. Landry’s introductory passage instead prints 1791, a disclosed conflict not used for the boundary. The French Archives nationales d’outre-mer independently identifies British domination beginning in 1793.", "region": "North Atlantic", "mechanism": "British seizure and phased removal, followed by English fishing use; English abandonment when the French squadron appeared in 1796, French destruction of the town, and continued depopulation until French possession and resident settlement were re-established in 1816.", "agents": [ "Captain William Affleck and the British expedition and authorities; Rear-Admiral de Richery and the French squadron as the later 1796 destruction actor" ], "victims": [ "Seasonal fishermen and the French garrison removed immediately in 1793, followed by 950 resident inhabitants ordered evacuated in 1794; individual identities and complete destinations are not supplied." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources support a distinct post-1783 population, phased 1793–1794 removal, later town destruction, and continued depopulation until re-established French settlement. Source conflict over the introductory date remains explicit rather than merging this sequence with 1778.", "disputes": "The sources do not provide a household roster, complete property-loss inventory, destination history for every deportee, compensation record, or measured livelihood effect.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "British seizure and phased resident evacuation followed by destruction and a durable wartime depopulated interval", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-saint-pierre-miquelon-british-deportation-1793-1815::SRC-01", "title": "Nicolas Landry, Les dossiers personnels des réfugiés de l’île-Royale et de Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon au Ministère de la Marine et des Colonies, 1763–1815; Olaf Uwe Janzen, The Restoration to France (1763–1815); Archives nationales d’outre-mer, Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon research guide", "url": "https://www.heritage.nf.ca/articles/exploration/restoration-france.php", "locator": "Heading 'War Outbreak and Evacuation,' first two paragraphs" }, { "id": "prospective-saint-pierre-miquelon-british-deportation-1793-1815::SRC-02", "title": "Nicolas Landry, Les dossiers personnels des réfugiés de l’île-Royale et de Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon au Ministère de la Marine et des Colonies, 1763–1815; Olaf Uwe Janzen, The Restoration to France (1763–1815); Archives nationales d’outre-mer, Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon research guide", "url": "https://archives-nationales-outre-mer.culture.gouv.fr/faire-une-recherche/saint-pierre-et-miquelon", "locator": "Historical chronology paragraph stating British domination, 1793-1814" }, { "id": "prospective-saint-pierre-miquelon-british-deportation-1793-1815::SRC-03", "title": "Nicolas Landry, Les dossiers personnels des réfugiés de l’île-Royale et de Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon au Ministère de la Marine et des Colonies, 1763–1815; Olaf Uwe Janzen, The Restoration to France (1763–1815); Archives nationales d’outre-mer, Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon research guide", "url": "https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/MCR/article/download/29272/1882524451/1882524154", "locator": "Landry, printed p. 48, introductory chronology" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlantic-saint-pierre-british-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct post-1783 population and 1793 seizure child; excludes the completed 1778 removal and assigns the later removal and resulting deserted interval only to this sequence.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_013", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.477646523, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6676635836, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 64.4146112183, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6482528547 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 6.7800880482, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6349301058, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 4.3048820216, "unknown_bound_high": 40.8118714444 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 13.0353585153, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7272621861, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 9.4801233308, "unknown_bound_high": 36.753904718 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 71.1269107349, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7574432403, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 53.8745977383, "unknown_bound_high": 78.1302737101 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 28.6696057413, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5807844762, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.6508619524, "unknown_bound_high": 58.5724143355 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7792553267, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 22.0744673286 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-southeastern-africa-atlantic-slave-removal", "name": "Trans-Atlantic enslavement and forced removal of captives embarked from Southeast Africa to the Americas", "start": 1700, "end": 1700, "date_label": "date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: af-transatlantic-slave-removal-southeast", "date_resolution": "SlaveVoyages identifies Southeast Africa as a later Atlantic provenance and places the expansion associated with Brazilian coffee and sugar near the end of the eighteenth century, but the opened locators do not state the first or last Southeast-Africa-specific embarkation year. The general last trans-Atlantic expedition in 1867 departed from the Congo River, so the proposal’s Southeast-African endpoint of 1866 is not confirmed here.", "region": "Africa and the Indian Ocean", "mechanism": "Enslavement, procurement on the Southeast African coast, confinement aboard trans-Atlantic slave ships, forced ocean passage, and disembarkation in the Americas.", "agents": [ "Brazilian-based slave traders operating the southern Atlantic system, commonly under the Portuguese flag, and other trans-Atlantic slavers; voyage-specific African suppliers and captors are not identified at the opened locators" ], "victims": [ "Captives leaving or embarked from SlaveVoyages’ Southeast Africa region and forcibly carried to mainland North America, the Caribbean, or South America; individual identities and totals are not given in the opened passages." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The route-defined system has a distinct ocean basin and destination structure directly supported by SlaveVoyages. Exact years and totals may remain unknown; Atlantic captives and ambiguous transshipments are excluded from the Indian Ocean sibling to prevent duplicate person counts.", "disputes": "The essay does not provide Southeast-Africa-specific first and last years, voyage or captive totals, embarkation ports, suppliers, individual routes, or a route-specific governance record; those remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Enslavement and forced trans-Atlantic removal of captives from Southeast Africa to American destinations", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-southeastern-africa-atlantic-slave-removal::SRC-01", "title": "David Eltis and David Richardson, Volume and direction of the trans-Atlantic slave trade; David Eltis, A Brief Overview of the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade", "url": "https://legacy.slavevoyages.org/blog/brief-overview-trans-atlantic-slave-trade", "locator": "The SlaveVoyages essay opened and the recorded Atlantic-system and African-side passages were present, including Brazilian-based traders, Southeast Africa's later role, forced ocean movement, plantation demand, and shipboard coercion." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "parent_event_ids": [ "af-transatlantic-slave-removal-southeast" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Atlantic child only for captives or voyages assigned to an American destination or Atlantic disembarkation system; excludes western Indian Ocean destinations, and ambiguous cross-system transshipments are not assigned to both children without person- or voyage-level evidence.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_003", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 32.750666595, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5562351928, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.2170733492, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5935540649 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 17.7705227503, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5810057072, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.3247751385, "unknown_bound_high": 52.2242044151 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 18.0011419959, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6025543257, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 10.8466659777, "unknown_bound_high": 50.5912334045 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5845237242, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 41.5476275828 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 70.2868623641, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7430719387, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 52.2281950823, "unknown_bound_high": 77.921001212 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 69.749056081, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3164841013, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.0744673286, "unknown_bound_high": 90.426057201 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-southeastern-africa-indian-ocean-slave-removal", "name": "Southeastern and East African slave removals through western Indian Ocean networks, documented into the late nineteenth century", "start": 1700, "end": 1700, "date_label": "date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: af-transatlantic-slave-removal-southeast", "date_resolution": "An opened 1506 account documents ships taking enslaved people from Madagascar, while Campbell identifies nineteenth-century networks, French intervention in 1895, abolition in 1896, and reduction of the trade to a trickle only by the early twentieth century. The network predates the earliest direct locator and no exact cessation is supplied, so both boundary years remain UNKNOWN.", "region": "Africa and the Indian Ocean", "mechanism": "War capture and raiding, overland movement to the coast, sale through coastal and island trade networks, forced maritime transport, import into Imerina, and coerced labor in island and coastal plantation systems.", "agents": [ "The Merina empire and its military system; Omani state and sultanate authorities; Arab and allied raiders; Omani and Swahili landowners; Portuguese participants in earlier coastal networks; exact captors and traders varied by place and period" ], "victims": [ "Malagasy people exported to western Indian Ocean markets, Malagasy war captives and East African captives taken to Imerina, and captives from areas including modern Malawi, southern Tanzania, and northern Mozambique moved to Zanzibar and other Indian Ocean destinations." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Peer-reviewed sources establish a destination and institutional system distinct from the Atlantic route. Person- or voyage-level ambiguous transshipments remain unassigned, and the broad parent retires so neither basin is counted twice.", "disputes": "Both boundary years, route-by-route volumes, individual origins and destinations, ambiguous transshipments, and a complete post-abolition cessation date remain unknown despite domain-level support.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "War capture, raiding, sale, and forced movement through western Indian Ocean and Imerina labor networks", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-southeastern-africa-indian-ocean-slave-removal::SRC-01", "title": "Gwyn Campbell, Madagascar and the Slave Trade, 1810–1895; David Eltis and David Richardson, Volume and direction of the trans-Atlantic slave trade; Something New out of Africa: States Made Slaves, Slaves Made States; Traces of Clay: Exploring Slave and Migrant Identities in Medieval Swahili Zanzibar", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-african-history/article/abs/madagascar-and-the-slave-trade-181018951/55CB9AC0E4E627B483DF76F933320FE2", "locator": "Campbell, article Extract, opening paragraph and closing chronological sentences" }, { "id": "prospective-southeastern-africa-indian-ocean-slave-removal::SRC-02", "title": "Gwyn Campbell, Madagascar and the Slave Trade, 1810–1895; David Eltis and David Richardson, Volume and direction of the trans-Atlantic slave trade; Something New out of Africa: States Made Slaves, Slaves Made States; Traces of Clay: Exploring Slave and Migrant Identities in Medieval Swahili Zanzibar", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/something-new-out-of-africa-states-made-slaves-slaves-made-states/6E27318C9103B59F54C44EB8748333EB", "locator": "Section 'Omani Zanzibar and Southeast Africa'" }, { "id": "prospective-southeastern-africa-indian-ocean-slave-removal::SRC-03", "title": "Gwyn Campbell, Madagascar and the Slave Trade, 1810–1895; David Eltis and David Richardson, Volume and direction of the trans-Atlantic slave trade; Something New out of Africa: States Made Slaves, Slaves Made States; Traces of Clay: Exploring Slave and Migrant Identities in Medieval Swahili Zanzibar", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/cambridge-archaeological-journal/article/traces-of-clay-exploring-slave-and-migrant-identities-in-medieval-swahili-zanzibar/D830A40665108FB43A8F3BFE9D836C25", "locator": "Section 'Zanzibar and slavery in the second millennium CE' and the 1506 account paragraph" }, { "id": "prospective-southeastern-africa-indian-ocean-slave-removal::SRC-04", "title": "Gwyn Campbell, Madagascar and the Slave Trade, 1810–1895; David Eltis and David Richardson, Volume and direction of the trans-Atlantic slave trade; Something New out of Africa: States Made Slaves, Slaves Made States; Traces of Clay: Exploring Slave and Migrant Identities in Medieval Swahili Zanzibar", "url": "https://legacy.slavevoyages.org/blog/volume-and-direction-trans-atlantic-slave-trade", "locator": "Final map-description paragraph distinguishing American destinations" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "parent_event_ids": [ "af-transatlantic-slave-removal-southeast" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Indian Ocean child only for captives or movements assigned to western Indian Ocean, Imerina, Zanzibar, Comoros, plantation-island, or other non-American destinations; excludes American disembarkations, and ambiguous cross-system transshipments are held rather than counted in both children.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_003", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 51.3712825447, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6830506595, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 35.0891884232, "unknown_bound_high": 66.7841224699 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 16.8267535769, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7893720798, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2825694676, "unknown_bound_high": 34.3453614855 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 35.0192259938, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8182989771, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.6561968095, "unknown_bound_high": 46.8262990998 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3857943336, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 61.4205666357 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 76.4368543944, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.5238006069, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8987147883 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 56.5512833383, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2817357274, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.9325169475, "unknown_bound_high": 87.7589442061 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-soviet-balkar-deportation-1944-1957", "name": "NKVD deportation of the Balkars from Kabardino-Balkaria and return authorization (1944–1957)", "start": 1944, "end": 1957, "date_label": "1944–1957 CE", "operative_date_start": 1944, "operative_date_end": 1957, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Pohl dates the NKVD exile operation to 8–9 March 1944; Helsinki Watch dates the surrounding of Balkar settlements to 8 March 1944, then identifies release from special-settlement rules after Khrushchev’s 1956 speech and a 9 January 1957 decree reorganizing the Kabardinian ASSR as the Kabardino-Balkar ASSR.", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "NKVD encirclement and roundup, truck movement to railheads, confinement in cattle cars, forced transport to special settlements, exile under special-settlement rules, later exemption from those rules, autonomy reorganization, and return.", "agents": [ "The Stalin regime and NKVD as deporting authorities; the USSR Supreme Soviet as rehabilitation authority; the Balkar people" ], "victims": [ "Pohl reports 37,713 Balkars exiled, while Helsinki Watch gives an estimated Balkar population of 42,666 at the time; the difference is preserved as a source-definition or denominator variance rather than reconciled." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources separately identify the Balkar cohort, operation dates, source territory, destinations, coercive transport, exile regime, and return boundary. Conflicting population denominators are preserved instead of averaged; the combined ethnic wrapper retires.", "disputes": "The Pohl target does not establish the packet's 1957 return authorization, competing population denominator, detailed labor assignments, settlement list, household routes, return timing, or restitution; those remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "NKVD roundup and cattle-car deportation of the Balkars to special settlements, followed by later return authorization", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-soviet-balkar-deportation-1944-1957::SRC-01", "title": "J. Otto Pohl, Stalin’s genocide against the Repressed Peoples; Helsinki Watch, Punished Peoples of the Soviet Union", "url": "https://gwern.net/doc/history/2000-pohl.pdf:", "locator": "The colon-suffixed Gwern target opened by redirecting to the Pohl PDF, and printed pages 283-284 contained the cited Balkar count, 8-9 March 1944 dates, destinations, cattle-car transport, and lethal conditions." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "ca-soviet-karachay-balkar-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Balkar ethnic cohort and 8–9 March 1944 NKVD operation; excludes Karachays and does not assign aggregate North Caucasus figures to either child without ethnic identification.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_021", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.7470571148, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8951170479, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.5999401551, "unknown_bound_high": 97.0882353677 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 42.9096893163, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4937806348, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.1879736302, "unknown_bound_high": 71.809910149 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 45.1706554375, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.753353928, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.6575951445, "unknown_bound_high": 58.2128012681 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-soviet-karachay-deportation-1943-1957", "name": "NKVD deportation of the Karachays from the Karachay Autonomous Oblast and post-1956 return", "start": 1943, "end": 1943, "date_label": "from 1943 CE", "operative_date_start": 1943, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "Pohl directly dates the NKVD deportation to 6 November 1943. Helsinki Watch identifies a 24 November 1956 rehabilitation decree and permission to return soon afterward, but the opened locators do not fix a 1957 completion or closing year; the end year therefore remains UNKNOWN.", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Mass arrest and assembly, movement to railheads, cattle-car deportation to special settlements and exile, followed by rehabilitation, autonomy reorganization, and permission to return.", "agents": [ "The Stalin regime and NKVD as deporting authorities; the USSR Supreme Soviet as rehabilitation authority; the Karachay people" ], "victims": [ "Pohl reports 68,939 Karachays deported from the Karachay Autonomous Oblast; Helsinki Watch describes the November 1943 arrest and exile of the Karachays and gives a pre-deportation 1939 census population of 75,737, not a second operation count." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The Karachay operation has its own cohort, date, source territory, transport, and return history. The 1957 endpoint remains uncertain and will be coded accordingly; no Balkar or aggregate North Caucasus figures are imported.", "disputes": "The target does not establish the post-1956 rehabilitation and return segment, exact closing year, detailed labor assignments, settlement timing, household routes, exile deaths by cohort, or restitution.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "NKVD mass arrest and cattle-car deportation of the Karachays to special settlements, followed by rehabilitation and return permission", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-soviet-karachay-deportation-1943-1957::SRC-01", "title": "J. Otto Pohl, Stalin’s genocide against the Repressed Peoples; Helsinki Watch, Punished Peoples of the Soviet Union", "url": "https://gwern.net/doc/history/2000-pohl.pdf:", "locator": "The recorded Gwern target opened through a redirect to the Pohl PDF, and printed pages 283-284 contained the cited 6 November 1943 Karachay operation, count, source oblast, destinations, and coercive transport conditions." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "ca-soviet-karachay-balkar-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct Karachay ethnic cohort and 6 November 1943 NKVD operation; excludes Balkars and does not assign aggregate North Caucasus figures to either child without ethnic identification.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_021", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.3779261968, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.3779261968, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3779261968 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 56.2174510799, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7778333399, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 43.7278077344, "unknown_bound_high": 65.9444737439 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 35.2518355537, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.2518355537, "unknown_bound_high": 35.2518355537 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 80.1238145571, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.1238145571, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.3048792309, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.873727682, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1110418574 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4563498733, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 54.3650126679 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-spartan-restoration-melos-405-bce", "name": "Lysander’s removal of Athenian settlers and restoration of Melian exiles (405 BCE)", "start": -405, "end": -405, "date_label": "405 BCE", "operative_date_start": -405, "operative_date_end": -405, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Rutishauser directly dates Lysander’s removal of the settlers and restoration of Melian exiles to 405 BCE; no longer implementation interval is stated.", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "Removal of the Athenian settler population and restoration of Melian exiles to Melos after the earlier Athenian conquest and colonization.", "agents": [ "Lysander as the restoring and removing authority; Athenian settlers on Melos; Melian exiles" ], "victims": [ "The Athenian apoikoi removed from Melos and the Melian exiles restored there; 500 settlers were originally installed after the 416 conquest, but the number still present or removed in 405 and the number and composition of returnees are unknown." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly establishes both opposite-direction territorial movements in 405 BCE. It is a separate reversal from Athens's 416 destruction and colony; unknown removed and returning counts do not justify folding the programs together.", "disputes": "The sources do not provide returnee or settler totals reliable for adoption, parcel restoration, implementation detail, livelihood effects, or a measured long-term demographic outcome.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Removal of Athenian settlers and implemented restoration of Melian exiles to the island", "sources": [ { "title": "Brian Rutishauser, Athens and the Cyclades", "locator": "printed p. 121 / PDF p. 137, note 272", "role": "modern_specialist_scholarship", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_33_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Successor-release and publication consequences" }, "url": "https://www.ancientportsantiques.com/wp-content/uploads/Documents/AUTHORS/Rutishauser2012-Cyclades.pdf" }, { "title": "Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War", "locator": "5.116; the separate 416 destruction/settlement, not 405 return totals", "role": "ancient_narrative_context", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_33_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Successor-release and publication consequences" }, "url": "https://www.yorku.ca/pswarney/Texts/thuc-5-116.htm" }, { "title": "Xenophon, Hellenica", "locator": "2.2.9; Melian restoration; the incomplete-gathering formula belongs to Aeginetans, not Melians", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_33_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Successor-release and publication consequences" } }, { "title": "Plutarch, Life of Lysander", "locator": "14.3; restoration testimony", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_33_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Successor-release and publication consequences" } } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-athenian-melos-destruction-colony" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct 405 reverse-movement child; assigns the removal of Athenian settlers and restoration of Melian exiles only here and excludes Athens’s 416 killing, enslavement, and initial colony.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_008", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.4808748018, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8274114925, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.8293846128, "unknown_bound_high": 97.0882353677 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 5.6930913618, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2985059093, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.6994214139, "unknown_bound_high": 71.8488304797 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2261803376, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.3819662417 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.326002058, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.6002057979, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 15.8128072652, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8377125375, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2465868986, "unknown_bound_high": 29.4753331521 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "af-ngoni-mbelwa-northern-malawi-conquests", "name": "Mbelwa Ngoni conquest, subjection, and Kasitu Valley settlement in northern Malawi", "start": 1858, "end": 1858, "date_label": "date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: af-ngoni-malawi-zambia-conquests", "date_resolution": "McCracken dates Mbelwa's southward movement only to the mid-1850s, calls the Kasitu settlement final without a year, and dates Mpherembe's later junction only to the early 1870s. No exact event onset or completion year is established, so both year fields remain UNKNOWN.", "region": "Southeastern Africa", "mechanism": "Southward armed movement, subjection of most Tumbuka, destruction of the remaining Chikulamayembe state, settlement in the Kasitu Valley, forcible incorporation of captives, and age-regiment raids for people, cattle, and grain", "agents": [ "Mbelwa and his Ngoni followers; his brothers Mtwalo and Mabilabo; Mpherembe's later-joining faction; Ngoni age regiments" ], "victims": [ "Tumbuka communities reduced to subjection, the Chikulamayembe state whose remaining political structure was destroyed, and male and female captives incorporated from encountered or neighboring communities; population counts are not given" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly links one leader and route to named affected communities, state destruction, and a durable settlement zone. Approximate dates and missing counts can remain unknown without merging the distinct Maseko and Mpezeni formations.", "disputes": "All domains receive opened support, but exact start, completion, settlement, and junction years, affected-community and captive counts, land allocation, and the conquest phase's endpoint remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Conquest and subjection of named Tumbuka communities, destruction of the Chikulamayembe state, captive incorporation, and Kasitu Valley settlement", "sources": [ { "id": "af-ngoni-mbelwa-northern-malawi-conquests::SRC-01", "title": "John McCracken, A History of Malawi, 1859–1966", "url": "https://api.pageplace.de/preview/DT0400.9781782040286_A42901684/preview-9781782040286_A42901684.pdf", "locator": "The Pageplace preview opened and PDF page 48, printed page 30, contained the recorded Mbelwa route, Tumbuka subjection, Chikulamayembe destruction, Kasitu settlement, later junction, captive incorporation, and raids." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "af-ngoni-malawi-zambia-conquests" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain a distinct Mbelwa prospective child for the Henga–northern highlands–Kasitu sequence. Exclude the Maseko Domwe/Dedza–Ntcheu formation and Mpezeni's Chipata formation; Mtwalo, Mabilabo, and the later Mpherembe junction remain internal segments of the Mbelwa polity rather than additional children on this evidence.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_002", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 14.3316138869, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.3316138869, "unknown_bound_high": 14.3316138869 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.8561946135, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.8561946135, "unknown_bound_high": 7.8561946135 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 81.9155733794, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2340767474, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.1745309766, "unknown_bound_high": 95.7668562384 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 24.4138692927, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5525527387, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.4899503401, "unknown_bound_high": 58.2346764693 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 45.3866650544, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3491486389, "unknown_bound_high": 71.9041953451 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 49.30547208, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.5660954809, "unknown_bound_high": 85.023541954 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "am-suriname-indian-indenture-1873-1916", "name": "British-Indian (Hindostani) contract-worker migration to Suriname plantations, 1873–1916", "start": 1873, "end": 1916, "date_label": "1873–1916 CE", "operative_date_start": 1873, "operative_date_end": 1916, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Nationaal Archief opening and index description directly define the British-Indian contract-worker migration window as 1873–1916. Hoefte's extract independently fixes the first Lalla Rookh arrival on 5 June 1873; the cited bodies do not give a more precise 1916 termination date.", "region": "Latin America and the Caribbean", "mechanism": "Transoceanic recruitment and migration under first contracts beginning on arrival, commonly five-year plantation labor obligations, possible re-contracting, and labor discipline backed by local ordinances and penal sanctions", "agents": [ "The Suriname colonial government as recruiting and contracting authority; plantation owners or managers as hirers and employers; British-Indian workers and the agents and officials administering their migration and contracts" ], "victims": [ "More than 34,000 Hindostani migrants from British India described by the archive as contract workers, including the first 399 indentured immigrants aboard the Lalla Rookh; the records also contain family and descendant information" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources independently identify the British-Indian cohort, recruitment channel, contracts, plantation destination, and coercive enforcement. Chinese and Javanese streams differ in origin, administration, and chronology, so the broad parent retires and the child receives a fresh profile.", "disputes": "The archive supports all domains while leaving the exact 1916 terminal act, individual contract and punishment outcomes, route variation, complete return pattern, and coercive effect across the full period unresolved.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "State-administered transoceanic indenture, plantation assignment, and labor discipline backed by penal sanctions", "sources": [ { "id": "am-suriname-indian-indenture-1873-1916::SRC-01", "title": "Nationaal Archief, Hindostaanse contractarbeiders in Suriname, 1873–1916; Rosemarijn Hoefte, A Passage to Suriname? The Migration of Modes of Resistance by Asian Contract Laborers", "url": "https://www.nationaalarchief.nl/onderzoeken/zoekhulpen/hindostaanse-contractarbeiders-in-suriname-1873-1916", "locator": "The Nationaal Archief guide opened and the recorded title, opening, contract dates, recruiting authority, planter and plantation fields, routes, punishments, family records, and parcel-ownership notes were present." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "am-suriname-asian-indenture" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain a distinct British-Indian prospective child for the 1873–1916 recruitment and contract system. Do not merge it with the Chinese 1853–1874 or Javanese 1890–1930 streams: origin population, imperial recruitment channel, chronology, registers, and first-contract administration are independently identified despite a shared Suriname plantation destination.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_004", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 75.117456104, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.117456104, "unknown_bound_high": 75.117456104 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 21.0140749883, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7276097902, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 15.2900466927, "unknown_bound_high": 42.5290676765 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.2610398758, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.7347920829, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4340433819 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 21.04596248, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0793726913, "unknown_bound_high": 69.6901913982 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 4.5046863595, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7557185522, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 3.4042750538, "unknown_bound_high": 27.8324198319 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 31.1867643338, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4200365235, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.0995800688, "unknown_bound_high": 71.0959277227 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "am-suriname-javanese-contract-worker-migration-1890-1930", "name": "Javanese contract-worker migration to Suriname plantations, 1890–1930, before the free-colonist phase", "start": 1890, "end": 1930, "date_label": "1890–1930 CE", "operative_date_start": 1890, "operative_date_end": 1930, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Nationaal Archief title and opening define contract-worker departures as 1890–1930; its contract-number explanation ends the regular series in 1929, labels 1930 arrivals free immigrants, and separately labels the 1939 Welter–Kielstra arrivals as farmer colonists. Hoefte likewise places a transition to free colonists around 1930 and says outstanding contract labor died out by 1935. The end year 1930 therefore bounds the contract-worker migration stream, not the expiry of every existing contract.", "region": "Latin America and the Caribbean", "mechanism": "Recruitment in villages and markets, sometimes through misleading promises; registration, examination, and contract signing in departure depots; ship transport; plantation assignment; labor contracts enforced through penal sanction and a pass system; possible re-contracting and post-contract settlement", "agents": [ "Dutch colonial authorities in the Netherlands East Indies and Suriname; recruiters; the Nederlandsche Handel-Maatschappij and Mariënburg plantation in the initial experiment; plantation employers; Javanese contract workers" ], "victims": [ "Migrants from the present-day Indonesian archipelago, called Javanese in the records although not all came from Java, including recruited men, fewer women, and recorded family members; exact cohort composition is not inferred" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The archive and scholarship support a distinct 1890–1930 contract-worker phase and show why later free immigrants and farmer colonists cannot be folded into it. The cohort is separate from Indian and Chinese systems and requires its own scoring.", "disputes": "All domains have opened support, while the precise last contracted departure within the 1930 transition, total cohort composition, individual enforcement outcomes, and expiries of older contracts remain unresolved.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Recruitment and transport into plantation contracts enforced through penal sanction and pass controls", "sources": [ { "id": "am-suriname-javanese-contract-worker-migration-1890-1930::SRC-01", "title": "Nationaal Archief, Javaanse contractarbeiders in Suriname 1890–1930; Rosemarijn Hoefte, Orang-kontrak: De verbeelding van Javaanse contractarbeiders in Suriname en Deli", "url": "https://www.nationaalarchief.nl/onderzoeken/zoekhulpen/javaanse-contractarbeiders-in-suriname-1890-1930", "locator": "The Nationaal Archief guide opened and contained the 1890-1930 cohort definition, 1929 contract-series end, 1930 free-immigrant and 1939 colonist distinctions, routes, contracts, plantation and ground fields, penalties, and return data." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "am-suriname-asian-indenture" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Replace the proposed 1890–1939 identity with a contract-worker migration child ending at the transition around 1930. Keep the later free-immigrant and 1939 Welter–Kielstra farmer-colonist phase outside this child, and keep the Chinese and British-Indian streams separate by origin, recruitment administration, and chronology.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_004", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 68.9728920899, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.9728920899, "unknown_bound_high": 68.9728920899 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 21.0140749883, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7276097902, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 15.2900466927, "unknown_bound_high": 42.5290676765 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.2610398758, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.7347920829, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4340433819 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 21.04596248, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0793726913, "unknown_bound_high": 69.6901913982 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 4.5046863595, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7557185522, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 3.4042750538, "unknown_bound_high": 27.8324198319 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 31.1867643338, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4200365235, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.0995800688, "unknown_bound_high": 71.0959277227 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 12.5, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 12.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-han-hexi-conquest-tuntian-121-bce-onward", "name": "Han conquest of the Hexi Corridor and commandery-based soldier-farmer colonization, 121 BCE–220 CE", "start": -121, "end": 220, "date_label": "121 BCE–220 CE", "operative_date_start": -121, "operative_date_end": 220, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Xin Wen directly dates Emperor Wu's army's conquest of the Hexi Corridor to 121 BCE and the establishment of administrative seats from Wuwei to Dunhuang to the following decade. Clydesdale dates Wuwei to 121 BCE, Zhangye to 111 BCE, traces soldier-farmer colonies over the Han period, and marks the dynasty's fall and regional reorganization in 220 CE. The 220 endpoint is a dynastic transition bound, not an exact cessation date for every installation.", "region": "Inner Asia", "mechanism": "Military conquest, establishment of commandery seats and defensive works, dispatch of soldier-farmers under tuntian, grain production for state movement, frontier defense, colonization, and spreading military-farming settlements", "agents": [ "Emperor Wu and the Han army; the Han government and commandery administrations; soldiers, soldier-farmers, conscripts, pioneers, and some immediate family members; the Xiongnu as the rival power conquered in the corridor" ], "victims": [ "State-dispatched soldiers and newly arrived soldier-farmers and their immediate families; the Xiongnu polity whose corridor control was conquered; direct evidence does not establish resident-removal totals, parcel transfers, or the fate of each local community" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources jointly establish conquest, a bounded corridor, Han institutions, and military-agricultural settlement. Local resident outcomes remain unknown, but the territorial program is distinct from the later Western Regions oasis-garrison system.", "disputes": "The target does not expose soldier-farmer dispatch, tuntian labor and production, settler numbers, local resident outcomes, allotments, or the 220 CE endpoint; those domains and details remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Military conquest followed by commandery construction and durable state-dispatched soldier-farmer colonization of the Hexi Corridor", "sources": [ { "id": "asia-han-hexi-conquest-tuntian-121-bce-onward::SRC-01", "title": "Anthony J. Barbieri-Low, Coerced Migration and Resettlement in the Qin Imperial Expansion; Heather Clydesdale, Rethinking China's Frontier: Archaeological Finds Show the Hexi Corridor's Rapid Emergence as a Regional Power; Xin Wen, Between the Great Walls: Northern Song Imaginations of the Northwest", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/E214AF16C3C74EB05C19C60537FCD38F/S2059163224000446a.pdf/between-the-great-walls-northern-song-imaginations-of-the-northwest.pdf", "locator": "The Cambridge PDF opened and printed page 251 contained the recorded paragraph dating Emperor Wu's conquest of the Hexi Corridor to 121 BCE, administrative seats in the following decade, and Han defensive construction." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "asia-han-hexi-tuntian-settlement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain a distinct Hexi child from the 121 BCE conquest through the Han-period commandery and military-farming system, bounded at Dunhuang. Do not absorb the Western Regions oasis-garrison child beginning in 101 BCE: its Xinjiang sites, migrant order, and western-fringe garrisons are territorially and institutionally separate even though both used tuntian.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_011", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.948794878, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7707600936, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 74.7242622106, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6482528547 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 40.6319614966, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.1483431835, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0274745196, "unknown_bound_high": 91.1931561711 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.0647509969, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 39.6581500419, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.2128251614, "unknown_bound_high": 84.4606779972 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6065143003 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-han-western-regions-oasis-garrisons-tuntian", "name": "Han state-directed tuntian garrisons and migrant colonies in the Western Regions, beginning 101 BCE", "start": -101, "end": -101, "date_label": "from 101 BCE", "operative_date_start": -101, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "Sheng and colleagues state that in 101 BCE Emperor Wu ordered thousands of people from the North China Plain to establish western tuntian outposts. They report Shichengzi, probably Shule, as abandoned in 75 CE, but that is a site-specific endpoint and cannot be used as the end of the wider Western Regions program; the general end year remains UNKNOWN.", "region": "Inner Asia", "mechanism": "An imperial order moving thousands of people to establish large self-sufficient tuntian outposts, combining military garrisoning, agriculture, political and economic projection, frontier defense, and colonization", "agents": [ "Emperor Wu and the Han state; thousands of ordered migrants from the North China Plain; military-garrison personnel and Han migrants at western outposts; local agro-pastoralist peoples" ], "victims": [ "Han Dynasty people subjected to state-directed and expressly described forcible migration, and local or native agro-pastoralist peoples who shared or interacted with garrison settlements; the source leaves the character and effects of those interactions unresolved" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly identifies the order, migrant cohort, western territory, colonizing function, and 101 BCE start. Unresolved local effects and program endpoint remain unknown rather than being borrowed from the territorially distinct Hexi child.", "disputes": "The source supports all domains at program level but leaves the wider endpoint, site-by-site foundation and abandonment, migrant composition and routes, and effects on specific local peoples unresolved.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Imperial forced migration of thousands into self-sufficient military-agricultural garrisons and colonies in the Western Regions", "sources": [ { "id": "asia-han-western-regions-oasis-garrisons-tuntian::SRC-01", "title": "Pengfei Sheng, Michael J. Storozum, Xiaohong Tian, and Yong Wu, A military garrison or cultural mixing pot? Renewed investigations at Shichengzi, a Han Dynasty settlement in Xinjiang", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/antiquity/article/military-garrison-or-cultural-mixing-pot-renewed-investigations-at-shichengzi-a-han-dynasty-settlement-in-xinjiang/768EDC15498EF33739C911502FD0649A", "locator": "The Cambridge article opened and the recorded information, Shichengzi, and conclusion sections were present, including the 101 BCE order, thousands of migrants, at least 45 sites, colonization, and Shule's 75 CE abandonment." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "asia-han-hexi-tuntian-settlement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain a distinct Western Regions child beginning with the 101 BCE migrant order and western outpost program. Exclude the Hexi conquest and commandery-colony child: Shichengzi and the other Xinjiang sites lie on the empire's western fringe beyond the Hexi administrative corridor, and Shichengzi's 75 CE abandonment is not projected onto every oasis garrison.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_011", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.3290804883, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9351189079, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.2089067291, "unknown_bound_high": 94.6970159395 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 28.7614880364, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4189474744, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.0495527733, "unknown_bound_high": 70.1548053318 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 3.849039502, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.849039502, "unknown_bound_high": 3.849039502 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1093678658, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.202589937, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2658033543 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-japanese-south-manchuria-railway-zone-settlement-1905-1931", "name": "Japanese South Manchuria Railway Zone urban settlement and extraterritorial administration, 1905–1931", "start": 1905, "end": 1931, "date_label": "1905–1931 CE", "operative_date_start": 1905, "operative_date_end": 1931, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Avila-Tàpies identifies treaty-based Japanese rights beginning in 1905, the South Manchuria Railway Company's establishment in 1906 and operation from 1907, and the railway-zone order as the pre-Manchukuo phase. McDowell and Yazawa place the institutional shift after the 1931 Manchurian Incident and from 1932. The years bound a colonial phase rather than every migrant's arrival or departure.", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "Treaty-derived extraterritorial rights and Japanese state-backed corporate administration of railway land; construction and regulation of planned station cities; provision of transport, utilities, education, sanitation, real estate, and experimental agricultural and industrial institutions that organized Japanese urban settlement", "agents": [ "Japanese government; South Manchuria Railway Company (Mantetsu) and its administrators; Japanese railway employees, business migrants, professionals, and other urban settlers" ], "victims": [ "Chinese residents and communities in and adjacent to railway municipalities, together with Chinese and Korean migrants participating in an unequal colonial urban order; the opened sources do not establish a tract-specific displaced cohort or complete resident count" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Full-text scholarship now establishes the pre-1932 institutions, railway land, migrant pattern, and urban-settlement program. Person-level Chinese displacement remains unknown, but this territorial colonial system is independently bounded from the later rural Manchukuo program.", "disputes": "The locator does not establish event-specific coercion or violence, a tract-specific displaced Chinese cohort, parcel-by-parcel ownership changes, municipality-level settlement dates, or complete resident counts; those constructs must remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Treaty-based extraterritorial land control, state-backed railway administration, and durable Japanese planned urban settlement", "sources": [ { "id": "asia-japanese-south-manchuria-railway-zone-settlement-1905-1931::SRC-01", "title": "University of California Press page for Louise Young, Japan's Total Empire, About the Book and table of contents only; Kevin McDowell, Japan in Manchuria: Agricultural Emigration in the Japanese Empire, 1932–1945; Daiji Yazawa, The Current Conditions of Agricultural Immigrant Villages in Manchukuo, J-STAGE abstract; Rosalia Avila-Tàpies, Imperial Expansion, Human Mobility and the Organization of Urban Space in Manchuria (Part I); repository independent-verification row for atlas-manchukuo", "url": "https://doshisha.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/22485/files/007001000003.pdf", "locator": "Opened the repository PDF and checked printed pages 38–45 (PDF pages 4–11), including the pre-Manchukuo treaty basis, railway lands, SMR administration, station-city planning, and migration discussion." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlas-manchukuo" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct from the 1932–1945 Manchukuo agricultural-colonization target: this child is limited to the pre-1932 Japanese corporate and extraterritorial railway-zone urban system, while the later child covers army- and state-directed rural agricultural settlement beyond the old corridor. The inactive Manchuria parent remains contextual only and is not counted or activated here.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_018", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 53.5746079086, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.832851807, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.6197090078, "unknown_bound_high": 61.3345283045 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 56.2044759345, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.627670614, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 35.2778979221, "unknown_bound_high": 72.5108365173 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 31.9155733794, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2340767474, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.4706936075, "unknown_bound_high": 84.0630188693 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5676071509, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 43.239284914 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.7869713995, "unknown_bound_high": 95.2130286005 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "asia-manchukuo-state-agricultural-colonization-1932-1945", "name": "Japanese state and army agricultural colonization of Manchukuo, 1932–1945", "start": 1932, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1932–1945 CE", "operative_date_start": 1932, "operative_date_end": 1945, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "McDowell dates the first five-year trial-emigration program from 1932, the mass migration campaign from 1936, and the program's collapse with Japan's 1945 defeat. These endpoints bound the state program and do not imply that every settlement or settler household persisted for the whole interval.", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "Army- and state-sponsored trial and mass agricultural emigration; armed settler compounds and strategically placed villages; forced or underpriced land transfer; removal of Chinese peasants into collective villages; placement of Japanese settlers on vacated farms; military and transport-infrastructure consolidation", "agents": [ "Japanese government; Kwantung Army; Manchukuo government; East Asian Development Company; Manchuria Colonial Development Company after 1936; Japanese settler households, armed emigrants, and Youth Brigade members" ], "victims": [ "Chinese peasants, landholders, tenants, and rural communities whose farms, homes, or villages were taken or reorganized; other local inhabitants of Manchukuo are not assigned person-level outcomes without direct evidence" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The evidence directly supports a 1932–1945 rural colonization program with distinct institutions, land, settlers, and displaced Chinese communities. The inactive wrapper and pre-1932 railway-zone child are not counted with it.", "disputes": "Although all eight domains have some opened support, settlement-by-settlement chronology, complete settler and displaced-person totals, parcel histories, the distribution of outcomes among Chinese communities, and individual outcomes remain unresolved.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Army- and state-sponsored agricultural settlement using forced or underpriced land transfers, collective-village removals, and Japanese occupation of vacated farms", "sources": [ { "id": "asia-manchukuo-state-agricultural-colonization-1932-1945::SRC-01", "title": "Kevin McDowell, Japan in Manchuria: Agricultural Emigration in the Japanese Empire, 1932–1945", "url": "https://www.monash.edu/arts/philosophical-historical-indigenous-studies/eras/past-editions/edition-five-2003-november/1094-2", "locator": "Opened the Monash article in the browser and checked the Introduction, “The Japanese Army, Armed Emigrants and Trial Emigration,” “Mass Migration Campaigns: 1936–1945,” and the concluding collapse discussion." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlas-manchukuo" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct from the 1905–1931 railway-zone target by its 1932 start, army and Manchukuo state institutions, agricultural household program, and rural frontier land. The inactive Manchuria parent remains contextual only and is not counted or activated here.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_018", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.8390807881, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.8390807881, "unknown_bound_high": 91.8390807881 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 66.0754258526, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8079761171, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 53.3873660155, "unknown_bound_high": 72.5897543064 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 67.6327468193, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.6381406762, "unknown_bound_high": 85.3373919752 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 62.3313776076, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.4899503401, "unknown_bound_high": 91.8476397449 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.3141103731, "unknown_bound_high": 93.561963209 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 3.3221595873, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7792553267, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 2.5888105546, "unknown_bound_high": 24.6632778833 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-cahokia-aztalan-colonial-settlement", "name": "Cahokia-linked Middle Mississippian settlement and remaking of Aztalan, ca. 1000–1200 CE", "start": 1000, "end": 1200, "date_label": "1000–1200 CE", "operative_date_start": 1000, "operative_date_end": 1200, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Wisconsin Historical Society places the Cahokia-linked arrivals around AD 1000 and Aztalan's abandonment around AD 1200. Both are approximate archaeological dates rather than exact annual boundaries.", "region": "North America", "mechanism": "Arrival and settlement of Cahokia-linked people; expansion and physical remaking of an existing village with a plaza, mounds, and palisade modeled on Cahokia; intermarriage, exchange, and eventual abandonment", "agents": [ "Visitors and settlers from Cahokia or with immediate ancestral ties to Cahokia; the pre-existing local Late Woodland village community" ], "victims": [ "Descendants of local Late Woodland Effigy Mound communities already living at the Crawfish River village, followed by an intermarried and culturally mixed Aztalan population; coercion, forced removal, and household counts are not established" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The evidence identifies incoming and pre-existing populations on the same tract and a substantial remaking of the village, while coercion and forced removal remain explicitly unknown. This is a low-state settlement transformation, not a claim of demonstrated violent replacement, and it is distinct from Trempealeau.", "disputes": "The opened source does not establish forced entry, removal, uniform coercion, or a specific governing or legal regime at Aztalan; consent, tenure, household counts, exact years, and person-level outcomes therefore remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Cahokia-linked durable settlement and physical remaking of an already occupied Late Woodland village landscape", "sources": [ { "id": "atlas-cahokia-aztalan-colonial-settlement::SRC-01", "title": "Wisconsin Historical Society, Aztalan (record CS4051)", "url": "https://legacy.wisconsinhistory.org/Records/Article/CS4051", "locator": "Opened the Wisconsin Historical Society record and checked “A Middle Mississippian Settlement,” “Visitors Arrive,” “Expansion of Aztalan,” the intermarriage discussion, and “A Village Abandoned.”" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlas-cahokia-colonies" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct from Trempealeau by tract, material configuration, and occupation history: Aztalan is an existing Crawfish River village remade after Cahokia-linked arrivals and continuing to about 1200, whereas the targeted Trempealeau occupation is a separate Upper Mississippi installation ending before 1100. The broad parent remains inactive context.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_015", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 10.2717370188, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7924406156, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 8.1397416068, "unknown_bound_high": 28.8956800432 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.5555186696, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.819694497, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.652300566, "unknown_bound_high": 26.6828508703 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.0647509969, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.4750996917, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1096713043, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 89.0328695747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5034179207, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6582079325 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-cahokia-trempealeau-colony", "name": "Early Cahokian intrusive settlement and religious installation at Trempealeau, immediately before 1050 to before 1100 CE", "start": 1150, "end": 1150, "date_label": "date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: atlas-cahokia-colonies", "date_resolution": "Pauketat, Boszhardt, and Benden date the Trempealeau and Fisher Mounds occupation to immediately before AD 1050 and ending before AD 1100. The Wisconsin Historical Society gives a broader northern-outpost chronology around 1000 to about 1200, but the targeted peer-reviewed case study provides the narrower Trempealeau range. Neither source states exact onset or termination years, so both fields remain UNKNOWN.", "region": "North America", "mechanism": "Intrusive Cahokian occupation marked by settlements, platform mounds, wall-trench buildings, ceramics, imported stone tools, likely religious buildings, and possible farmsteads; interpretation as a religious installation near a powerful landform", "agents": [ "Cahokian settlers and builders associated with early Cahokia; living local Upper Mississippi Valley people, described as minimally involved" ], "victims": [ "Living local people near the Trempealeau installation, whose specific community identity and outcomes are not named; Cahokian settlers associated with the intrusive occupation" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The synthesis and site evidence support a separate tract, intrusive material system, and bounded occupation before 1100. Local outcomes and land tenure remain unknown, so scoring and prose must not convert settlement into demonstrated displacement.", "disputes": "The abstract does not establish coercion, violence, land tenure, formal governance, or a sufficiently definite labor or production system; exact dates, local community identities and outcomes, participant counts, and permanence of possible farmsteads remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Intrusive Cahokian settlement and religious installation in a landscape occupied by local communities", "sources": [ { "id": "atlas-cahokia-trempealeau-colony::SRC-01", "title": "Wisconsin Historical Society article CS386 on Cahokia, Trempealeau, and Aztalan; Timothy R. Pauketat, Robert F. Boszhardt, and Danielle M. Benden, Trempealeau Entanglements: An Ancient Colony's Causes and Effects, American Antiquity 80(2), 2015", "url": "https://experts.illinois.edu/en/publications/trempealeau-entanglements-an-ancient-colonys-causes-and-effects/", "locator": "Opened the University of Illinois publication page and checked the complete abstract, especially the immediately-pre-1050 to pre-1100 chronology, intrusive occupation, religious installation, possible farmsteads, and local involvement statement." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlas-cahokia-colonies" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct from Aztalan: Trempealeau is a separate western Wisconsin tract with a targeted occupation ending before AD 1100 and an intrusive religious-installation interpretation, while Aztalan is a remade pre-existing village occupied to about 1200. The targeted chronology supersedes the broader shared-abandonment wording for this preliminary boundary; the parent remains inactive context.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_015", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 14.3921861234, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3726535238, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.3632988747, "unknown_bound_high": 68.0979464902 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 6.1541971428, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6529391654, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 4.0183163464, "unknown_bound_high": 38.7243998019 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.950328006, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2649093305, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.6428519656, "unknown_bound_high": 85.1519189195 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7852540975, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 21.4745902503 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5034179207, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6582079325 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-canary-la-gomera-revolt-repression", "name": "Suppression of the Indigenous La Gomera revolt after the killing of Hernán Peraza, date unresolved", "start": 1449, "end": 1449, "date_label": "date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: atlas-canary-islands", "date_resolution": "Mitchell's island table assigns La Gomera a conquest date of 1489, while Espino's punitive-repression sequence places Pedro de Vera's replacement in 1488 after the described operations; neither direct passage gives an explicit date for the revolt and punishment themselves. Because these markers appear to concern different scopes and do not establish one event year, both fields remain UNKNOWN.", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "Punitive expedition after Peraza's killing; encirclement and defeat; executions, dismemberment, mutilation, drowning, enslavement, sale, and deterrent terror directed beyond the identified killers", "agents": [ "Hernán Peraza as the seigneur whose intervention in Indigenous factional conflict and killing preceded the punishment; his widow Beatriz de Bobadilla; Gran Canaria governor Pedro de Vera and a force of four hundred men; the Indigenous Pala and Mulagua factions" ], "victims": [ "Gomeros of the Pala and Mulagua factions besieged at Garajonay; people executed or mutilated; minors, children, and women enslaved or sold; and Gomeros living at Telde and Gáldar who were arrested and killed. Complete counts and individual affiliations remain unresolved." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly establish one island-specific punitive episode and multiple territorial-removal mechanisms even though its date and property outcomes remain unresolved. El Hierro and Gran Canaria processes are excluded rather than combined with it.", "disputes": "The source does not provide a parcel-by-parcel Indigenous ownership record, a beneficiary roster for the territorial distributions, or complete victim and captive counts. Those values remain unknown and no tract-level dispossession count is inferred.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Punitive military defeat followed by execution, enslavement, sale, and forced removal of Gomero residents", "sources": [ { "id": "atlas-canary-la-gomera-revolt-repression::SRC-01", "title": "Peter J. Mitchell, Archaeological Research in the Canary Islands: Island Archaeology off Africa's Atlantic Coast; Antonio Espino López, Granada, Canarias, América: el uso de prácticas aterrorizantes en la praxis de tres conquistas, 1482–1557; Manuel Lobo Cabrera, Formas de poder y economía canaria entre los siglos XV–XVII", "url": "https://www.villadehermigua.com/el-municipio/historia.html", "locator": "Historia de Hermigua > Edad Moderna, paragraphs 1-6 (web text lines 4-9)" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlas-canary-islands" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "The input's El Hierro–La Gomera composite is not one event: El Hierro's early Norman and later seigneurial control is separated from the much later La Gomera revolt and punitive expedition by actors, population, island, and chronology. The revised target contains only the directly documented La Gomera repression and remains distinct from Pedro de Vera's Gran Canaria conquest because its trigger and affected population are Gomero.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_016", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 51.1076655234, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6620573775, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 33.836207008, "unknown_bound_high": 67.6304692552 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 65.6488103343, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5885641878, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.6385387357, "unknown_bound_high": 79.7821199538 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.0647509969, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.6187749229, "unknown_bound_high": 95.1436752312 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 76.4387666946, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.6846236896, "unknown_bound_high": 93.9324765255 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2178825944, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.7882594432, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-canary-gran-canaria-conquest-1478-1483", "name": "Castilian Crown conquest of Gran Canaria, 1478–1483", "start": 1478, "end": 1483, "date_label": "1478–1483 CE", "operative_date_start": 1478, "operative_date_end": 1483, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Espino dates the Crown's first capitulation for Gran Canaria to 1478 and Pedro de Vera's occupation of the island to 1483; Mitchell's island table independently gives 1483 as the conquest date. The 1477 purchase of conquest rights is treated as a precursor rather than the campaign start.", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "Crown acquisition of conquest rights followed by a 1478 capitulation, military assault and occupation, warfare, deportation and enslavement, and post-conquest division of land between European settlers and surviving collaborating Indigenous communities", "agents": [ "The Catholic Monarchs and Castilian Crown; Bishop Juan de Frías; Captain Juan Rejón; Pedro de Vera; Castilian expeditionary forces" ], "victims": [ "Indigenous people and communities of Gran Canaria subjected to conquest, warfare, deportation, enslavement, or the post-conquest division of island land; the opened passages do not assign identical outcomes to every person" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources converge on a coherent island campaign with its own actors, affected population, military boundary, and post-conquest land outcome. Other island conquests remain separate and the archipelago wrapper retires.", "disputes": "The locators do not provide a Gran-Canaria-specific labor system, economic distribution, complete Indigenous or settler counts, durable population trajectories, parcel allocations, campaign-stage dates, or person-level outcomes; these domains and details remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Crown-directed conquest, deportation and enslavement, followed by land division between settlers and surviving Indigenous communities", "sources": [ { "id": "atlas-canary-gran-canaria-conquest-1478-1483::SRC-01", "title": "Peter J. Mitchell, Archaeological Research in the Canary Islands: Island Archaeology off Africa's Atlantic Coast; Antonio Espino López, Granada, Canarias, América: el uso de prácticas aterrorizantes en la praxis de tres conquistas, 1482–1557", "url": "https://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?pid=S0717-71942012000200001&script=sci_arttext", "locator": "Checked the SciELO paragraphs on the 1478 capitulation and Pedro de Vera’s 1483 occupation, Springer Table 1 for the 1483 conquest date, and “Contact, Colonization, and Resistance” for warfare, deportation, enslavement, and post-conquest land division." }, { "id": "atlas-canary-gran-canaria-conquest-1478-1483::SRC-02", "title": "Peter J. Mitchell, Archaeological Research in the Canary Islands: Island Archaeology off Africa's Atlantic Coast; Antonio Espino López, Granada, Canarias, América: el uso de prácticas aterrorizantes en la praxis de tres conquistas, 1482–1557", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10814-023-09186-y", "locator": "Checked the SciELO paragraphs on the 1478 capitulation and Pedro de Vera’s 1483 occupation, Springer Table 1 for the 1483 conquest date, and “Contact, Colonization, and Resistance” for warfare, deportation, enslavement, and post-conquest land division." }, { "id": "atlas-canary-gran-canaria-conquest-1478-1483::SRC-03", "title": "Peter J. Mitchell, Archaeological Research in the Canary Islands: Island Archaeology off Africa's Atlantic Coast; Antonio Espino López, Granada, Canarias, América: el uso de prácticas aterrorizantes en la praxis de tres conquistas, 1482–1557", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10814-023-09186-y/tables/1", "locator": "Checked the SciELO paragraphs on the 1478 capitulation and Pedro de Vera’s 1483 occupation, Springer Table 1 for the 1483 conquest date, and “Contact, Colonization, and Resistance” for warfare, deportation, enslavement, and post-conquest land division." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlas-canary-islands" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct island campaign bounded by the 1478 Gran Canaria capitulation and 1483 occupation. It excludes the later La Gomera punitive expedition, the 1492–1493 La Palma campaign, and the earlier Norman Lanzarote–Fuerteventura phase; the archipelago parent remains inactive context.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_016", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.8896508296, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6376453809, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 57.9553660203, "unknown_bound_high": 94.1908279334 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 61.8148568875, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.377266676, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.320685587, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5940179844 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.8200452483, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3786989604, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.5472837498, "unknown_bound_high": 86.677387708 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 62.3313776076, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.4899503401, "unknown_bound_high": 91.8476397449 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9931375021, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3730735329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.3510282824, "unknown_bound_high": 91.0436749946 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 68.5068801174, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5780987827, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.6037439996, "unknown_bound_high": 81.7938657338 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-canary-la-palma-conquest-1492-1493", "name": "Castilian Crown conquest of La Palma, 1492–1493", "start": 1492, "end": 1493, "date_label": "1492–1493 CE", "operative_date_start": 1492, "operative_date_end": 1493, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Cabildo Insular de La Palma historical memorandum identifies Alonso Fernández de Lugo's landing, first military camp, and start of conquest at Tazacorte in 1492. Mitchell's island table gives 1493 as La Palma's conquest date. Exact day-level completion is not established by the opened locators.", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "Crown-entrusted military conquest; expeditionary landing and fortified camp at Tazacorte; inland penetration, warfare, deportation and enslavement within the wider conquest pattern; subsequent European settlement and island land distribution", "agents": [ "The Catholic Monarchs and Castilian Crown; Alonso Fernández de Lugo; his expeditionary troops and the garrison established at Tazacorte" ], "victims": [ "Indigenous people and communities of La Palma, called ancient Palmeros in the local historical memorandum; the opened locators do not establish one outcome for every canton or individual" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources establish a distinct La Palma campaign, Indigenous population, entry point, commander, and conquest-settlement sequence. Unresolved canton-level outcomes and counts belong in scoring rather than in a combined Canary event.", "disputes": "The opened locators do not establish the event’s labor or production regime, canton-by-canton demographic effects, casualty and captive totals, settler counts, parcel distributions, exact completion date, or individual outcomes; those remain explicit gaps.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Crown-entrusted conquest involving warfare, deportation and enslavement, followed by European settlement and land distribution", "sources": [ { "id": "atlas-canary-la-palma-conquest-1492-1493::SRC-01", "title": "Peter J. Mitchell, Archaeological Research in the Canary Islands: Island Archaeology off Africa's Atlantic Coast; Antonio Espino López, Granada, Canarias, América: el uso de prácticas aterrorizantes en la praxis de tres conquistas, 1482–1557; Manuel Lobo Cabrera, Formas de poder y economía canaria entre los siglos XV–XVII; Boletín Oficial de Canarias 2023/187, Cabildo Insular de La Palma historical memorandum for the Puerto de Tazacorte", "url": "https://www.gobiernodecanarias.org/boc/2023/187/010.html", "locator": "Checked the official Tazacorte memorandum for the 1492 landing, military camp, garrison, and inland route; Springer Table 1 for the 1493 conquest date; the Springer conquest section for warfare and land division; and SciELO for the Crown-entrusted campaign." }, { "id": "atlas-canary-la-palma-conquest-1492-1493::SRC-02", "title": "Peter J. Mitchell, Archaeological Research in the Canary Islands: Island Archaeology off Africa's Atlantic Coast; Antonio Espino López, Granada, Canarias, América: el uso de prácticas aterrorizantes en la praxis de tres conquistas, 1482–1557; Manuel Lobo Cabrera, Formas de poder y economía canaria entre los siglos XV–XVII; Boletín Oficial de Canarias 2023/187, Cabildo Insular de La Palma historical memorandum for the Puerto de Tazacorte", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10814-023-09186-y", "locator": "Checked the official Tazacorte memorandum for the 1492 landing, military camp, garrison, and inland route; Springer Table 1 for the 1493 conquest date; the Springer conquest section for warfare and land division; and SciELO for the Crown-entrusted campaign." }, { "id": "atlas-canary-la-palma-conquest-1492-1493::SRC-03", "title": "Peter J. Mitchell, Archaeological Research in the Canary Islands: Island Archaeology off Africa's Atlantic Coast; Antonio Espino López, Granada, Canarias, América: el uso de prácticas aterrorizantes en la praxis de tres conquistas, 1482–1557; Manuel Lobo Cabrera, Formas de poder y economía canaria entre los siglos XV–XVII; Boletín Oficial de Canarias 2023/187, Cabildo Insular de La Palma historical memorandum for the Puerto de Tazacorte", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10814-023-09186-y/tables/1", "locator": "Checked the official Tazacorte memorandum for the 1492 landing, military camp, garrison, and inland route; Springer Table 1 for the 1493 conquest date; the Springer conquest section for warfare and land division; and SciELO for the Crown-entrusted campaign." }, { "id": "atlas-canary-la-palma-conquest-1492-1493::SRC-04", "title": "Peter J. Mitchell, Archaeological Research in the Canary Islands: Island Archaeology off Africa's Atlantic Coast; Antonio Espino López, Granada, Canarias, América: el uso de prácticas aterrorizantes en la praxis de tres conquistas, 1482–1557; Manuel Lobo Cabrera, Formas de poder y economía canaria entre los siglos XV–XVII; Boletín Oficial de Canarias 2023/187, Cabildo Insular de La Palma historical memorandum for the Puerto de Tazacorte", "url": "https://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?pid=S0717-71942012000200001&script=sci_arttext", "locator": "Checked the official Tazacorte memorandum for the 1492 landing, military camp, garrison, and inland route; Springer Table 1 for the 1493 conquest date; the Springer conquest section for warfare and land division; and SciELO for the Crown-entrusted campaign." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlas-canary-islands" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct 1492–1493 La Palma island campaign under Alonso Fernández de Lugo. It is separate from Gran Canaria, La Gomera, Lanzarote, Fuerteventura, and El Hierro by island, chronology, and command; the archipelago parent remains inactive context.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_016", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.9229816176, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7924406156, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 67.2964198348, "unknown_bound_high": 88.0523582711 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 60.4447020362, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5009383692, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2790704628, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1852335461 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 64.8200452483, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3786989604, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.5472837498, "unknown_bound_high": 86.677387708 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9931375021, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3730735329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.3510282824, "unknown_bound_high": 91.0436749946 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 64.0287344574, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5780987827, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.014933445, "unknown_bound_high": 79.2050551791 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-canary-lanzarote-fuerteventura-conquest-1402-1405", "name": "Norman-Castilian conquest and early settlement of Lanzarote and Fuerteventura, 1402–1405", "start": 1402, "end": 1405, "date_label": "1402–1405 CE", "operative_date_start": 1402, "operative_date_end": 1405, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Mitchell's island table dates Lanzarote to 1402 and Fuerteventura to 1405. Lobo Cabrera gives 1402–1404 for the associated Béthencourt–La Salle campaign, while Espino describes the 1402 occupation phase. The island-specific table's 1405 Fuerteventura endpoint is retained, with the one-year source variation disclosed rather than silently harmonized.", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "Norman seizure in Castile's name; military conquest; establishment of early settler sites; warfare, deportation, enslavement, and subsequent division of island land between European settlers and surviving collaborating Indigenous communities", "agents": [ "Jean de Béthencourt, Gadifer de la Salle, and Norman expeditionaries acting on their own initiative in the name of or with the consent of Castile; early Norman settlers" ], "victims": [ "The Indigenous Majos or Mayos of Lanzarote and Fuerteventura, subjected within a conquest pattern of warfare, deportation, enslavement, and settler land division; individual and island-specific outcomes are not generalized beyond the opened evidence" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The opened evidence directly links Lanzarote and Fuerteventura to the same expedition and early settler phase. Other islands differ in chronology and authority; the small endpoint variance remains uncertainty rather than forcing an unsupported split.", "disputes": "The opened sources do not establish an event-specific labor or production system, and they leave the 1404-versus-1405 narrative variation, battle sequence, captive and settler counts, parcel distributions, household durability, and individual outcomes unresolved.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "One continuous Norman-Castilian two-island campaign involving conquest, deportation, enslavement, early settlement, and land division", "sources": [ { "id": "atlas-canary-lanzarote-fuerteventura-conquest-1402-1405::SRC-01", "title": "Peter J. Mitchell, Archaeological Research in the Canary Islands: Island Archaeology off Africa's Atlantic Coast; Antonio Espino López, Granada, Canarias, América: el uso de prácticas aterrorizantes en la praxis de tres conquistas, 1482–1557; Manuel Lobo Cabrera, Formas de poder y economía canaria entre los siglos XV–XVII", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10814-023-09186-y", "locator": "Checked Springer Table 1 for Lanzarote 1402 and Fuerteventura 1405, the article’s “Contact, Colonization, and Resistance” section for Norman seizure and early settler sites, and the SciELO passage on Béthencourt’s linked 1402 occupation phase." }, { "id": "atlas-canary-lanzarote-fuerteventura-conquest-1402-1405::SRC-02", "title": "Peter J. Mitchell, Archaeological Research in the Canary Islands: Island Archaeology off Africa's Atlantic Coast; Antonio Espino López, Granada, Canarias, América: el uso de prácticas aterrorizantes en la praxis de tres conquistas, 1482–1557; Manuel Lobo Cabrera, Formas de poder y economía canaria entre los siglos XV–XVII", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10814-023-09186-y/tables/1", "locator": "Checked Springer Table 1 for Lanzarote 1402 and Fuerteventura 1405, the article’s “Contact, Colonization, and Resistance” section for Norman seizure and early settler sites, and the SciELO passage on Béthencourt’s linked 1402 occupation phase." }, { "id": "atlas-canary-lanzarote-fuerteventura-conquest-1402-1405::SRC-03", "title": "Peter J. Mitchell, Archaeological Research in the Canary Islands: Island Archaeology off Africa's Atlantic Coast; Antonio Espino López, Granada, Canarias, América: el uso de prácticas aterrorizantes en la praxis de tres conquistas, 1482–1557; Manuel Lobo Cabrera, Formas de poder y economía canaria entre los siglos XV–XVII", "url": "https://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?pid=S0717-71942012000200001&script=sci_arttext", "locator": "Checked Springer Table 1 for Lanzarote 1402 and Fuerteventura 1405, the article’s “Contact, Colonization, and Resistance” section for Norman seizure and early settler sites, and the SciELO passage on Béthencourt’s linked 1402 occupation phase." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlas-canary-islands" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "One continuous early Norman campaign supports the paired Lanzarote–Fuerteventura child. El Hierro is excluded because the sources describe only partial early occupation followed by later Peraza control; La Gomera and the later Crown conquests are also distinct by chronology, actors, and island. The archipelago parent remains inactive context.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_016", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 23.9743892148, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7317152667, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 17.5424265978, "unknown_bound_high": 44.3708999298 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 42.8074537902, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2793389315, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.9577884031, "unknown_bound_high": 84.0238952504 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 63.8218764664, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3786989604, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.1692782698, "unknown_bound_high": 86.2993822279 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 74.6627552151, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.1587453826, "unknown_bound_high": 94.5164347874 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9931375021, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3730735329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.3510282824, "unknown_bound_high": 91.0436749946 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 64.0287344574, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5780987827, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.014933445, "unknown_bound_high": 79.2050551791 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "atlas-canary-tenerife-conquest-1494-1496", "name": "Castilian conquest of Tenerife and defeat of Guanche resistance, 1494–1496", "start": 1494, "end": 1496, "date_label": "1494–1496 CE", "operative_date_start": 1494, "operative_date_end": 1496, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Tenerife campaign opened with the Castilian landing and Guanche victory at the first battle of Acentejo in May 1494; the museum account dates Indigenous submission to July 1496 and completion and Crown incorporation to September 1496.", "region": "Africa", "mechanism": "Amphibious invasion; pitched battles; Castilian withdrawal and reinforcement; military defeat of Guanche resistance; Crown incorporation and settler redistribution", "agents": [ "The Catholic Monarchs and Crown of Castile; captain and governor Alonso Fernández de Lugo and Castilian forces; Guanche menceyatos and forces, including the resisting war factions" ], "victims": [ "The Indigenous Guanche population of Tenerife, especially communities in the resisting menceyatos" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Authoritative sources directly establish Tenerife's own actors, polity setting, battle sequence, and completion boundary. It is a separate island-level land-taking event and cannot remain hidden inside an archipelago wrapper.", "disputes": "The locators do not establish a campaign-specific labor or economic regime, and they do not quantify post-conquest dispossession, population loss, settler redistribution, menceyato-level outcomes, or individual trajectories; those details remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Castilian invasion and defeat of Guanche resistance followed by Crown incorporation and settler redistribution", "sources": [ { "id": "atlas-canary-tenerife-conquest-1494-1496::SRC-01", "title": "Museos de Tenerife, ‘La conquista de Canarias’; Gobierno de Canarias, Decreto 54/2007 declaring the Sitio Histórico de la Batalla de Acentejo", "url": "https://www.gobiernodecanarias.org/boc/2007/058/004.html", "locator": "Checked the official Acentejo decree for the late-May 1494 Guanche victory, Castilian withdrawal, and final 1496 victory, and the Tenerife museum’s ‘Conoce tu historia’ and ‘Poblamiento y la creación de la sociedad’ passages for July and September 1496 completion, Crown incorporation, land offers, European repopulation, and settlement." }, { "id": "atlas-canary-tenerife-conquest-1494-1496::SRC-02", "title": "Museos de Tenerife, ‘La conquista de Canarias’; Gobierno de Canarias, Decreto 54/2007 declaring the Sitio Histórico de la Batalla de Acentejo", "url": "https://www.museosdetenerife.org/mha-museo-de-historia-y-antropologia/la-conquista-de-canarias/", "locator": "Checked the official Acentejo decree for the late-May 1494 Guanche victory, Castilian withdrawal, and final 1496 victory, and the Tenerife museum’s ‘Conoce tu historia’ and ‘Poblamiento y la creación de la sociedad’ passages for July and September 1496 completion, Crown incorporation, land offers, European repopulation, and settlement." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlas-canary-islands" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct island-level successor to the inactive Canary Islands parent: Tenerife has its own 1494–1496 campaign, Guanche polity structure, battle sequence, and completion date; earlier conquests of other islands remain outside this target.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_016", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.3193708324, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7407418908, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 69.8663090886, "unknown_bound_high": 95.7921200095 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 59.4273706345, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6349301058, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 37.7322267227, "unknown_bound_high": 74.2392161455 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 76.805414743, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.0809962266, "unknown_bound_high": 95.1436752312 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 76.4387666946, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.6846236896, "unknown_bound_high": 93.9324765255 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 73.3143372807, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7792553267, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 57.1305878505, "unknown_bound_high": 79.2050551791 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-persian-gulf-east-african-slave-trafficking-labor", "name": "East African chattel trafficking into Arabian and Persian Gulf forced labor, eighteenth to early twentieth centuries", "start": 1882, "end": 1882, "date_label": "date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: mena-persian-gulf-slavery-pearl-labor", "date_resolution": "The CODESRIA source body places this trafficking-and-labor system from the eighteenth century and documents early-nineteenth-century flows; Bishara places increased East African slave importation by the end of the nineteenth century; Hopper's abstract documents an Ethiopian child kidnapped about 1925 and enslaved in Gulf pearl diving until 1933. None fixes the system-wide onset or endpoint, so both year fields remain UNKNOWN.", "region": "Middle East and Indian Ocean", "mechanism": "Kidnapping; overland and maritime trafficking; sale and resale as chattel; violent confinement; forced labor in date cultivation, domestic service, dhow work, and pearl diving", "agents": [ "East African kidnappers and slave traders; Swahili, Red Sea, and Arabian brokers and ship crews; Omani and Gulf slave merchants, owners, and pearl-boat captains; British agents handling escape and manumission cases" ], "victims": [ "Kidnapped and enslaved East Africans, including people from the Swahili coast and Ethiopia and African mariners used in Gulf pearl crews, date plantations, and domestic labor" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources independently support a population-, route-, status-, and mechanism-bounded forced-removal system. Its intersection with pearling does not merge chattel capture and sale with the separate barwa credit relation.", "disputes": "The network's exact onset, complete route and destination roster, aggregate numbers, individual histories beyond the cited case, and measured post-1939 durability remain unresolved.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Kidnapping, chattel trafficking, forced maritime transfer, and coerced labor of East Africans in Gulf destinations", "sources": [ { "id": "mena-persian-gulf-east-african-slave-trafficking-labor::SRC-01", "title": "Matthew S. Hopper, ‘Imperialism and the Dilemma of Slavery in Eastern Arabia and the Gulf’ (DigitalCommons record and accessible article abstract); Fahad Ahmad Bishara, ‘The Diver's New Papers’ (open full-text copy); Vijayalakshmi Teelock and Abdul Sheriff, ‘Slavery and the Slave Trade in the Indian Ocean,’ in Transition from Slavery in Zanzibar and Mauritius (CODESRIA, 2016); Matthew S. Hopper, Slaves of One Master (Yale University Press publisher page consulted but not used to fill facts)", "url": "https://publication.codesria.org/index.php/pub/catalog/download/37/120/282?inline=1", "locator": "Chapter 2, printed pp. 36-37, paragraphs 'The second period' and 'Slaves were exported from the Swahili coast'" }, { "id": "mena-persian-gulf-east-african-slave-trafficking-labor::SRC-02", "title": "Matthew S. Hopper, ‘Imperialism and the Dilemma of Slavery in Eastern Arabia and the Gulf’ (DigitalCommons record and accessible article abstract); Fahad Ahmad Bishara, ‘The Diver's New Papers’ (open full-text copy); Vijayalakshmi Teelock and Abdul Sheriff, ‘Slavery and the Slave Trade in the Indian Ocean,’ in Transition from Slavery in Zanzibar and Mauritius (CODESRIA, 2016); Matthew S. Hopper, Slaves of One Master (Yale University Press publisher page consulted but not used to fill facts)", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/231760047_Imperialism_and_the_Dilemma_of_Slavery_in_Eastern_Arabia_and_the_Gulf_1873-1939", "locator": "Hopper abstract, paragraph beginning 'In December 1933'" }, { "id": "mena-persian-gulf-east-african-slave-trafficking-labor::SRC-03", "title": "Matthew S. Hopper, ‘Imperialism and the Dilemma of Slavery in Eastern Arabia and the Gulf’ (DigitalCommons record and accessible article abstract); Fahad Ahmad Bishara, ‘The Diver's New Papers’ (open full-text copy); Vijayalakshmi Teelock and Abdul Sheriff, ‘Slavery and the Slave Trade in the Indian Ocean,’ in Transition from Slavery in Zanzibar and Mauritius (CODESRIA, 2016); Matthew S. Hopper, Slaves of One Master (Yale University Press publisher page consulted but not used to fill facts)", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356778401_The_Diver%27s_New_Papers_Wealth_People_and_Property_in_a_Persian_Gulf_Bazaar", "locator": "Bishara, printed pp. 518-519, paragraph beginning 'As value commanded'" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-persian-gulf-slavery-pearl-labor" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct from the pearl-diver debt-labor sibling: this unit is chattel capture, trafficking, sale, and forced labor of East Africans; a shared pearling workplace does not merge it with barwa and credit constraints affecting free, unfree, or manumitted divers.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_052", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 38.5561349319, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8205907534, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.6388078123, "unknown_bound_high": 49.5797324713 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 11.4560128345, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4301400455, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.9276898819, "unknown_bound_high": 61.9136853316 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.0699487883, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 93.0051211686 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 76.4368543944, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.5238006069, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8987147883 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1224105579, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 87.7589442061 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-safavid-armenian-deportation-aras-new-julfa-1604-1605", "name": "Shah Abbas I's forced deportation of Armenians across the Aras and settlement of Julfans at New Julfa, 1604–1605", "start": 1604, "end": 1605, "date_label": "1604–1605 CE", "operative_date_start": 1604, "operative_date_end": 1605, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Julfa source dates the forced movement across the Aras to 21 October–19 November 1604, the winter march and distribution within Iran, and the Julfan mercantile group's arrival near Isfahan and beginning of New Julfa in early summer 1605.", "region": "Middle East and the Caucasus", "mechanism": "Scorched-earth destruction; compelled river crossing; forced winter march; separation and redistribution of deportees; concentrated resettlement of Julfan merchants at New Julfa for Safavid strategic and economic purposes", "agents": [ "Shah Abbas I and the Safavid army and officials; Armenian residents of Julfa and other towns and villages; Ottoman forces as the military context for the Safavid retreat" ], "victims": [ "Armenians removed from Julfa and the wider Aras and Ararat zone, including the Julfan mercantile community and other urban and rural families" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly establish the affected population, Safavid authority, source territory, forced route, destination, and economic and strategic settlement program. Conflicting aggregate estimates are preserved rather than reconciled by averaging.", "disputes": "All eight domains have some opened support, but the locator preserves conflicting aggregate estimates and does not resolve exact individual routes, losses during the crossing and march, parcel allocations, household-by-household destinations, or person-level outcomes.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Scorched-earth destruction, forced Aras crossing and march, and strategic resettlement of Armenians at New Julfa and other destinations", "sources": [ { "id": "mena-safavid-armenian-deportation-aras-new-julfa-1604-1605::SRC-01", "title": "John R. Perry, ‘Deportations,’ Encyclopaedia Iranica; Ina Baghdiantz McCabe, ‘Julfa i. Safavid Period,’ Encyclopaedia Iranica generated PDF", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/deportations/", "locator": "Opened Encyclopaedia Iranica’s “Deportations” article and checked “Deportations by Shah ʿAbbās I,” especially the northern Azerbaijan 1603–05 passage on scorched earth, Julfa and Ararat removals, southeastward march, New Julfa settlement, dispersal, and economic purposes." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-safavid-caucasus-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct from the Georgian-deportation sibling by affected people, source territory, 1604–1605 decision sequence, forced Aras crossing, and New Julfa destination; the broader 1603–1605 war context and later Georgian campaigns remain outside this target.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_053", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.4353889176, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 93.4353889176, "unknown_bound_high": 93.4353889176 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 22.9116562972, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7932064448, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1736734357, "unknown_bound_high": 38.8530289569 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 88.4455747958, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6053852708, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 53.5436482503, "unknown_bound_high": 93.0051211686 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 47.5706723016, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6019784511, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 28.6365196311, "unknown_bound_high": 68.4386745186 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.977134222, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.2540619569, "unknown_bound_high": 75.8091086631 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 14.8333515339, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5370504741, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.9662584738, "unknown_bound_high": 54.2612110639 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "mena-safavid-georgian-deportations-1614-1616", "name": "Safavid campaigns in Kartli and Kakheti and mass deportation of Georgians to Persia, 1614–1616", "start": 1614, "end": 1616, "date_label": "1614–1616 CE", "operative_date_start": 1614, "operative_date_end": 1616, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Cambridge body identifies the mass capture and enslavement in the punitive campaign of 1616; Encyclopaedia Iranica's Georgia ii describes campaigns beginning in 1614, renewed ravaging in 1615, and mass deportation in 1616, while Georgia vii calls the capture and southward movement the campaigns of 1614–1616. Georgia ii records renewed fighting in 1623–1624 but no deportation continuing through 1625, so the unsupported endpoint is removed.", "region": "Middle East and the Caucasus", "mechanism": "Punitive invasion and ravaging; massacre; capture and enslavement; forced southward deportation; redistribution into agricultural settlements, households, and the Safavid military; planned replacement settlement in devastated Georgian territory", "agents": [ "Shah Abbas I; Safavid and Qizilbash forces and officials; Georgian kings, nobles, and resistance forces in Kartli and Kakheti" ], "victims": [ "Georgian civilians in Kartli and Kakheti, including families, women, boys, captives, and deported cultivators; mixed-population Farahabad figures are not treated as Georgian-only totals" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The Georgian campaigns have a distinct population, source territory, 1614–1616 decision sequence, and destination structure from the Armenian program. Unsupported extension through later warfare is rejected and the broad wrapper retires.", "disputes": "All domains have some support, but aggregate death and deportation estimates remain uncertain, mixed Farahabad populations cannot be treated as Georgian-only totals, exact destination shares and property losses are unresolved, and later 1623–24 fighting cannot extend this deportation unit.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Punitive invasion, massacre and enslavement, forced deportation, and redistribution into Iranian settlements, households, and the military", "sources": [ { "id": "mena-safavid-georgian-deportations-1614-1616::SRC-01", "title": "Rudi Matthee, ‘Shah Abbas I: The Myth, the Monarch, and the Man,’ Iranian Studies; John R. Perry, ‘Deportations,’ Encyclopaedia Iranica; Hirotake Maeda, ‘Georgia vii. Georgians in the Safavid Administration,’ Encyclopaedia Iranica generated PDF; Keith Hitchins, ‘Georgia ii. History of Iranian-Georgian Relations,’ Encyclopaedia Iranica generated PDF", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/deportations/", "locator": "Opened the recorded Iranica deportation target and the Georgia II target, checking the 1614 Kartli/Kakheti campaign, 1615 revolt and ravaging, mass killing and deportation passage, planned depopulation and Turkmen replacement, and the Farahabad resettlement paragraph." }, { "id": "mena-safavid-georgian-deportations-1614-1616::SRC-02", "title": "Rudi Matthee, ‘Shah Abbas I: The Myth, the Monarch, and the Man,’ Iranian Studies; John R. Perry, ‘Deportations,’ Encyclopaedia Iranica; Hirotake Maeda, ‘Georgia vii. Georgians in the Safavid Administration,’ Encyclopaedia Iranica generated PDF; Keith Hitchins, ‘Georgia ii. History of Iranian-Georgian Relations,’ Encyclopaedia Iranica generated PDF", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/georgia-ii-history/?generate_pdf=1", "locator": "Opened the recorded Iranica deportation target and the Georgia II target, checking the 1614 Kartli/Kakheti campaign, 1615 revolt and ravaging, mass killing and deportation passage, planned depopulation and Turkmen replacement, and the Farahabad resettlement paragraph." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-safavid-caucasus-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct from the Armenian 1604–1605 Aras and New Julfa deportation by Georgian affected population, 1614–1616 campaigns, eastern Georgian source territory, and Iranian settlement destinations; later 1623–1624 Georgian warfare is excluded absent direct deportation evidence.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_053", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.3061603979, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.7615619458, "unknown_bound_high": 91.8340968415 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 15.4160928017, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4997196727, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.7037248494, "unknown_bound_high": 57.7317575779 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 40.6698893201, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3973147125, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.1587453826, "unknown_bound_high": 76.4272741326 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 83.5342106563, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 33.3215854314, "unknown_bound_high": 93.4318382612 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-eritrea-expulsion-ethiopian-designated-civilians-1998-2000", "name": "Eritrean internment and expulsion of Ethiopian-designated civilians during the Ethiopia–Eritrea war, 1998–2000", "start": 1998, "end": 2000, "date_label": "1998–2000 CE", "operative_date_start": 1998, "operative_date_end": 2000, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The report documents coercive departures and alleged deportations from June 1998, increasingly harsh internment and forcible expulsion through 1999, and large forced removals in July and August 2000. The boundary closes at the 12 December 2000 peace agreement; later repatriations into 2001–2002 are explicitly outside this wartime target.", "region": "Horn of Africa", "mechanism": "Dismissal and eviction; harassment, assault, and property confiscation; arrest and internment; coerced departure and summary expulsion; forced transfer across dangerous border and front-line routes, distinguished where possible from voluntary return", "agents": [ "The Eritrean government, security forces, police, local authorities, and internment administrators; private attackers in documented incidents; the ICRC as transfer monitor and facilitator" ], "victims": [ "Ethiopian citizens and long-term Ethiopian residents in Eritrea, especially Tigrayan migrant laborers and residents of Asmara, Assab, and Massawa, including internees, women, and children" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The report distinguishes voluntary return from confirmed coercion and identifies an Eritrea-to-Ethiopia or Djibouti directional event. It must be scored separately from Ethiopia's opposite state campaign despite their shared war context.", "disputes": "All eight domains have some evidence, but voluntary, coerced, and forcibly expelled totals are not fully disaggregated; individual property losses, later restitution, post-2000 repatriations, and person-level outcomes remain outside the supported boundary.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Eritrean dismissal, eviction, internment, property confiscation, and forced cross-border removal of Ethiopian-designated residents", "sources": [ { "id": "modern-eritrea-expulsion-ethiopian-designated-civilians-1998-2000::SRC-01", "title": "Human Rights Watch, The Horn of Africa War: Mass Expulsions and the Nationality Issue (2003), including ‘The Deportations’ and section V, ‘Expulsions by Eritrea’", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/2003/01/29/horn-africa-war/mass-expulsions-and-nationality-issue", "locator": "Opened the Human Rights Watch report and checked “The Deportations” and section V, including “Early Exodus and Expulsions,” “Internment,” and the July–August 2000 expulsion discussion, with attention to voluntary-versus-coerced departures and property loss." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-ethiopia-eritrea-reciprocal-expulsions" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct from Ethiopia's reciprocal expulsion sibling because Eritrean authorities acted inside Eritrea against Ethiopian-designated residents and moved them toward Ethiopia or Djibouti; shared war timing and ICRC involvement do not merge the opposite directional event.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_055", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.6911242212, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.6911242212, "unknown_bound_high": 84.6911242212 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 9.6638898595, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8820517642, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.5240510998, "unknown_bound_high": 20.3188746786 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 51.7715911454, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8377125375, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.369710987, "unknown_bound_high": 59.5984572405 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2905197955, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.948020452 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-ethiopia-expulsion-eritrean-designated-civilians-1998-2000", "name": "Ethiopian denationalization, detention, and expulsion of Eritrean-designated civilians during the Ethiopia–Eritrea war, 1998–2000", "start": 1998, "end": 2000, "date_label": "1998–2000 CE", "operative_date_start": 1998, "operative_date_end": 2000, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The report dates Ethiopia's first arrests and expulsions to 12 June 1998 and documents successive wartime waves through 2000. This target closes with the 12 December 2000 peace agreement; the report's separate post-agreement expulsions in 2001–2002 are excluded.", "region": "Horn of Africa", "mechanism": "Nationality reclassification and stripping of documents; dawn arrest and administrative detention without meaningful review; family separation; freezing, confiscation, or forced sale of property; guarded bus deportation and forced border crossing on foot", "agents": [ "The Ethiopian federal government, security services, police, local kebele authorities, and deportation-processing committees; the ICRC as transfer monitor" ], "victims": [ "Ethiopian citizens and residents whom authorities designated Eritrean or of Eritrean origin, including 1993 referendum voters, mixed families, business and community figures, and later broader urban and rural groups" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly establish a separate authority, designated population, nationality mechanism, property process, and Ethiopia-to-Eritrea route. Reciprocal timing does not make the two state programs one event.", "disputes": "All domains have some support, but exact totals and property losses remain contested, individual nationality and ownership claims are not adjudicated here, and the report’s post-agreement 2001–02 expulsions cannot be folded into the bounded 1998–2000 event.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Ethiopian denationalization, detention, property seizure or forced sale, and guarded deportation of Eritrean-designated residents", "sources": [ { "id": "modern-ethiopia-expulsion-eritrean-designated-civilians-1998-2000::SRC-01", "title": "Human Rights Watch, The Horn of Africa War: Mass Expulsions and the Nationality Issue (2003), including ‘The Deportations’ and section IV, ‘Expulsions by Ethiopia’", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/2003/01/29/horn-africa-war/mass-expulsions-and-nationality-issue", "locator": "Opened the Human Rights Watch report and checked section IV’s overview, nationality-status discussion, deportation process, property limitations and confiscation, detention, urban and rural expulsions, and the passages dating first removals to 12 June 1998." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-ethiopia-eritrea-reciprocal-expulsions" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct from Eritrea's reciprocal expulsion sibling because Ethiopian authorities acted inside Ethiopia against people designated Eritrean or of Eritrean origin and moved them into Eritrea; the nationality-stripping process, territory, affected population, and directional actor are separate.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_055", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.6808055102, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6808055102, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6808055102 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 54.8825711575, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8820517642, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.409268714, "unknown_bound_high": 60.2040922928 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 48.1864454478, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.1864454478, "unknown_bound_high": 48.1864454478 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.2079991435, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.2190236911, "unknown_bound_high": 83.329276521 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 38.4717185006, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4721727771, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1652981656, "unknown_bound_high": 70.948020452 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "modern-myanmar-karenni-war-displacement", "name": "Renewed armed conflict and civilian displacement in Kayah (Karenni) State from May 2021", "start": 2021, "end": 2021, "date_label": "from 2021 CE", "operative_date_start": 2021, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "UNHCR states that renewed armed conflict broke out in Kayah in May 2021 and was still producing repeated displacement in February 2022. OCHA’s 28 March 2025 update records attacks affecting Kayah residential areas and displacement sites and continuing IDP conditions in Demoso, Hpasawng, and Hpruso. No source establishes termination, so the end year remains UNKNOWN.", "region": "Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "Renewed armed clashes; gunfire, airstrikes, and shelling; burning of villages; attacks affecting residential areas, homes, schools, religious buildings, shelters, and displacement sites; repeated flight, hiding in forests, and secondary movement into Shan", "agents": [ "The Myanmar Armed Forces and security forces; ethnic and other local armed groups opposing them in Kayah. The opened passages do not resolve a complete formation-by-formation actor list." ], "victims": [ "Civilian residents of Kayah, including men, women, children, villagers, and repeatedly displaced families sheltering in forests, host communities, religious sites, camps, or neighboring southern Shan; ethnic composition and a nonduplicated total are unresolved" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "UNHCR fixes the phase onset and links the renewed fighting to mass and repeated Kayah-origin displacement; OCHA carries the same tract and mechanism forward. Shelter in southern Shan does not transfer the event to a Shan target.", "disputes": "The opened record does not resolve a complete armed-group roster, a specific governance or legal mechanism, or a sufficiently defined labor or economic system. Ethnic composition, nonduplicated population totals, return outcomes, and household-level property losses remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Renewed armed conflict from May 2021 causing repeated civilian flight, village burning, and destruction of homes and displacement sites", "sources": [ { "id": "modern-myanmar-karenni-war-displacement::SRC-01", "title": "OCHA, Myanmar Humanitarian Update No. 45; Human Rights Watch, World Report 2011: Burma; UNHCR, Displaced families in crisis-hit Myanmar struggle for survival", "url": "https://myanmar.un.org/en/172847-displaced-families-crisis-hit-myanmar-struggle-survival", "locator": "Opened the UNHCR story and checked the May 2021 Kayah onset, Loikaw and Demoso flight sequence, repeated displacement into southern Shan, and village-burning context; also checked OCHA Update 45 for Kayah-specific destruction of shelters, homes, schools, religious buildings, and displacement sites." }, { "id": "modern-myanmar-karenni-war-displacement::SRC-02", "title": "OCHA, Myanmar Humanitarian Update No. 45; Human Rights Watch, World Report 2011: Burma; UNHCR, Displaced families in crisis-hit Myanmar struggle for survival", "url": "https://myanmar.un.org/en/291781-myanmar-humanitarian-update-no-45", "locator": "Opened the UNHCR story and checked the May 2021 Kayah onset, Loikaw and Demoso flight sequence, repeated displacement into southern Shan, and village-burning context; also checked OCHA Update 45 for Kayah-specific destruction of shelters, homes, schools, religious buildings, and displacement sites." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-myanmar-ethnic-wars-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Treat the May-2021-renewed Kayah sequence as distinct from the Karen/Kayin conflict and from northern-Shan operations. Count Kayah-origin displacement here even when refuge is in southern Shan; geography of shelter alone does not transfer it to a Shan target. The parent remains inactive and this review grants no counting authority.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_059", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 45.9269337884, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.293354336, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.4728651668, "unknown_bound_high": 84.1374315651 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 3.8011673511, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7259592863, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 2.7594927373, "unknown_bound_high": 30.1635641077 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.421568418, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 57.8431581978 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 35.5066380518, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3730735329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2465868986, "unknown_bound_high": 75.9392336108 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 51.9601890868, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2905197955, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.0954635066, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0434839586 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "modern-myanmar-rakhine-conflict-displacement", "name": "Resumed AA–MAF conflict and civilian displacement in Rakhine and Paletwa from 13 November 2023", "start": 2023, "end": 2023, "date_label": "from 2023 CE", "operative_date_start": 2023, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "OCHA’s flash update fixes resumed AA–MAF hostilities on 13 November 2023 after the November 2022 informal ceasefire. The 28 March 2025 update describes the conflict as continuing and intensifying and attributes displacement to the resumption since November 2023. No termination is supplied, so the end year remains UNKNOWN.", "region": "Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "Attacks on military and police positions; ground clashes; air, artillery, shelling, and naval operations; arrests, checkpoints, curfews, road and waterway blockades, movement restrictions, forced flight, and secondary relocation of already displaced people", "agents": [ "The Arakan Army (AA); the Myanmar Armed Forces and State Administration Council (MAF/SAC), including Border Guard Police and air, artillery, and naval forces. Separate AA–Rohingya armed-group clashes reported near Bangladesh are not treated as the core AA–MAF sequence without finer attribution." ], "victims": [ "Civilian residents displaced from Rakhine State and Paletwa Township by the resumed AA–MAF conflict; the source does not resolve the ethnic composition of the newly displaced. Pre-existing Rohingya IDPs in camps since 2012 are not folded into the new-conflict cohort." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly establish a precise phase onset, named opposing organizations, territory, coercive mechanisms, and a newly displaced cohort distinct from the pre-existing Rohingya camp population.", "disputes": "The report does not resolve household ownership, the ethnic composition of each newly displaced or property-loss cohort, person-level prior-displacement status, exact village identity for the Maungdaw destruction, or whether individual homes were later restored. These remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Resumed AA–MAF fighting from 13 November 2023 causing forced flight, movement restrictions, and secondary displacement in Rakhine and Paletwa", "sources": [ { "id": "modern-myanmar-rakhine-conflict-displacement::SRC-01", "title": "OCHA, Myanmar Humanitarian Update No. 45; Human Rights Watch, World Report 2011: Burma; OCHA, Myanmar: Escalating Hostilities—Rakhine and Southern Chin Flash Update No. 5", "url": "https://myanmar.un.org/sites/default/files/2024-11/OCHA%20Myanmar%20-%20Humanitarian%20Update%20No.%2042_%20final.pdf", "locator": "OCHA Myanmar Humanitarian Update No. 42, printed p. 3 (PDF p. 3), section More than one year of conflict in Rakhine, paragraphs 1-3" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-myanmar-ethnic-wars-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Treat the post-13-November-2023 AA–MAF Rakhine/Paletwa sequence as distinct from the inactive nationwide umbrella, pre-existing 2012 Rohingya camp displacement, and the northern-Shan offensive despite AA participation in both theaters. Do not duplicate older and current Rakhine displacement totals.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_059", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 45.9269337884, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.293354336, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.4728651668, "unknown_bound_high": 84.1374315651 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 3.8011673511, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7259592863, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 2.7594927373, "unknown_bound_high": 30.1635641077 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.421568418, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 57.8431581978 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.9288434819, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.3153869016, "unknown_bound_high": 80.4256397315 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 51.9601890868, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3795605923, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.7220401448, "unknown_bound_high": 81.7659809167 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "modern-myanmar-northern-shan-three-brotherhood-offensive-displacement-from-2023", "name": "Three Brotherhood Alliance offensive and conflict displacement in northern Shan from 26 October 2023", "start": 2023, "end": 2023, "date_label": "from 2023 CE", "operative_date_start": 2023, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "OCHA fixes the northern-Shan escalation to attacks on military and police bases beginning 26 October 2023. A January 2024 ceasefire was later breached, and the 28 March 2025 update still describes northern Shan as volatile under airstrikes, shelling, mines, and recurrent attacks. No termination is established, so the end year remains UNKNOWN.", "region": "Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "Coordinated attacks on MAF and police bases; ground fighting, airstrikes, artillery shelling, mines and explosive ordnance; destruction of homes; road and airport closures; blocked movement, forced flight, repeated displacement, and attempted cross-border refuge", "agents": [ "The Three Brotherhood Alliance—the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Arakan Army (AA)—and other EAOs or People’s Defence Forces; the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF) and police" ], "victims": [ "Civilian residents of northern-Shan townships forced into religious compounds, host communities, informal forest or field sites, and movement toward or across the China border; ethnicity, repeated-displacement status, and a nonduplicated total remain unresolved" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The added flash update bounds one offensive by coalition, onset, townships, and movement mechanism. AA participation elsewhere does not merge this theater with Rakhine, and Kayah-origin refuge in southern Shan is excluded.", "disputes": "The opened record does not establish a defined governing or legal regime for the bounded offensive. Later subphase attribution, exact house and household losses, nonduplicated displacement totals, return outcomes, and the relationship to southern-Shan conflicts remain unresolved.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "A coordinated northern-Shan offensive from 26 October 2023 causing home destruction, blocked movement, repeated flight, and attempted cross-border refuge", "sources": [ { "id": "modern-myanmar-northern-shan-three-brotherhood-offensive-displacement-from-2023::SRC-01", "title": "OCHA, Myanmar Humanitarian Update No. 45; Human Rights Watch, World Report 2011: Burma; OCHA, Myanmar: Escalation of clashes in northern Shan and the Northwest Flash Update No. 3; OCHA, Myanmar Humanitarian Response Plan 2022 End-Year Report", "url": "https://myanmar.un.org/en/252437-myanmar-escalation-clashes-northern-shan-and-northwest-flash-update-3", "locator": "Opened OCHA Flash Update 3 and checked the highlights and situation overview for the 26 October 2023 attacks, named Three Brotherhood Alliance members, northern-Shan townships, house damage, road closures, displacement and China-border movement; checked Update 45 for continuing volatility." }, { "id": "modern-myanmar-northern-shan-three-brotherhood-offensive-displacement-from-2023::SRC-02", "title": "OCHA, Myanmar Humanitarian Update No. 45; Human Rights Watch, World Report 2011: Burma; OCHA, Myanmar: Escalation of clashes in northern Shan and the Northwest Flash Update No. 3; OCHA, Myanmar Humanitarian Response Plan 2022 End-Year Report", "url": "https://myanmar.un.org/en/291781-myanmar-humanitarian-update-no-45", "locator": "Opened OCHA Flash Update 3 and checked the highlights and situation overview for the 26 October 2023 attacks, named Three Brotherhood Alliance members, northern-Shan townships, house damage, road closures, displacement and China-border movement; checked Update 45 for continuing volatility." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-myanmar-ethnic-wars-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Revise the broad Shan target to the source-bounded northern-Shan offensive. Exclude southern-Shan conflicts and Kayah-origin IDPs sheltered there; shared AA participation does not merge this theater with the Rakhine AA–MAF conflict. The inactive nationwide parent remains contextual and no revised target is activated.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_059", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 44.9124017068, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3780893183, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.9808993435, "unknown_bound_high": 79.1719675158 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 3.1484847393, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8764510442, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.7594927373, "unknown_bound_high": 15.1143883188 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.3925181859, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 17.1674993087, "unknown_bound_high": 52.1206584283 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.009372719, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7557185522, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 25.701513913, "unknown_bound_high": 50.1296586911 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 51.9601890868, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2905197955, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.0954635066, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0434839586 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "new-zealand-ngai-tahu-musket-war-invasions", "name": "Northern-iwi invasions of Ngāi Tahu communities and territory, circa 1827–1837", "start": 1827, "end": 1837, "date_label": "1827–1837 CE", "operative_date_start": 1827, "operative_date_end": 1837, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Te Ara places the first source sequence around 1827, then dates the Akaroa capture to 1830 and successful attacks on Kaiapohia and Ōnawe to 1831. It places Te Pūoho’s final northern war party at Tuturau in late 1836 or early 1837. The year fields therefore express an approximate outer window, not exact dates for every attack.", "region": "Aotearoa New Zealand", "mechanism": "Successive musket-era war parties and attacks; killing, capture, transport by European ship, torture, pā conquest, and attempted long-distance invasion, followed by armed Ngāi Tahu resistance and the defeat of Te Pūoho’s party", "agents": [ "Ngāti Toa under Te Rauparaha and Te Pēhi Kupe; Te Āti Awa and other northern allies; Captain John Stewart and the brig Elizabeth in the 1830 Akaroa seizure; Ngāti Tama chief Te Pūoho and his war party; Ngāi Tahu defenders, including Tūhawaiki" ], "victims": [ "Ngāi Tahu communities attacked at Kaikōura, Kaiapohia, Akaroa/Ōnawe, and in the final Tuturau incursion, including Tama-i-haranui and his family. The source does not provide civilian/combatant composition, displacement totals, or complete casualty and captive counts." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Te Ara supplies the invading actors, affected Ngāi Tahu communities, places, and coercive acts across one bounded campaign sequence. Land-tenure effects and civilian composition remain unknown and must not be inferred from the conquest evidence.", "disputes": "The locator does not establish a formal governing or legal regime, complete civilian and combatant composition, displacement or settler totals, durable postwar population change, tract-level land tenure, full casualty and captive totals, or person-level outcomes.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Successive South Island invasions involving pā conquest, killing, capture, and forced transport of Ngāi Tahu people", "sources": [ { "id": "new-zealand-ngai-tahu-musket-war-invasions::SRC-01", "title": "Basil Keane, Te Ara—The Encyclopedia of New Zealand, Musket wars: Ngāti Toa and allies", "url": "https://teara.govt.nz/en/musket-wars/page-5", "locator": "Opened Te Ara page 5 and checked “South Island battles” and “Te Pūoho,” from the circa-1827 attacks through the 1830 ship-borne capture, successful 1831 attacks on Kaiapohia and Ōnawe pā, and the late-1836 or early-1837 Tuturau incursion." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "new-zealand-musket-wars-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign only the South Island campaign sequence directed at Ngāi Tahu to this target. Exclude Ngāti Toa’s 1822–1824 Kāpiti migration and consolidation, and exclude the earlier Rangitāne and Ngāti Kuia attacks from the affected Ngāi Tahu population. Shared Ngāti Toa actors do not merge distinct tracts and opponents.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_063", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 11.4941990417, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8835294147, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.1554629518, "unknown_bound_high": 21.8025214812 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 11.0632640598, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.0632640598, "unknown_bound_high": 11.0632640598 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 6.9948788314, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.9948788314, "unknown_bound_high": 6.9948788314 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.7617971238, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4276618452, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.4449995391, "unknown_bound_high": 68.6788150179 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 76.4387666946, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.6846236896, "unknown_bound_high": 93.9324765255 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1395651604, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0434839586 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "new-zealand-ngati-toa-kapiti-cook-strait-conquests", "name": "Ngāti Toa migration to, capture, and consolidation of Kāpiti and the Cook Strait base, 1822–1824", "start": 1822, "end": 1824, "date_label": "1822–1824 CE", "operative_date_start": 1822, "operative_date_end": 1824, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Te Ara dates Ngāti Toa’s southward movement to Kāpiti to 1822 and the culminating battle of Waiorua to 1824. The source does not date every intermediate capture or later arrival of allied groups; the 1822–1824 window bounds migration and initial Kāpiti consolidation, while the separate South Island campaigns begin around 1827.", "region": "Aotearoa New Zealand", "mechanism": "Collective migration through contested territory; retaliatory violence; capture of Kāpiti Island from Muaūpoko; movement to an island fortress; repeated battles culminating at Waiorua; consolidation of a trade-oriented Cook Strait base", "agents": [ "Ngāti Toa under Te Rauparaha and Te Pēhi Kupe; Te Āti Awa allies accompanying the migration; Muaūpoko people from whom Kāpiti Island was captured; the coalition of tribal groups defeated at Waiorua" ], "victims": [ "Muaūpoko residents and other local communities contested during Ngāti Toa’s Kāpiti settlement, together with incoming Ngāti Toa migrants and Te Āti Awa allies. The source does not quantify prior-resident removal, incoming households, casualties, or later allied settlement." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly join migration to contested territorial seizure and durable settlement under one actor sequence. Prior-resident displacement and household totals remain unknown, while later South Island attacks belong to a separate child.", "disputes": "The locator does not establish a formal governance or legal regime, and it leaves prior-resident removal, incoming household totals, casualties, exact intermediate dates, land-tenure rules, the chronology of later allied settlement, and individual outcomes unresolved.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Collective migration, capture of Kāpiti from Muaūpoko, fortress settlement, and consolidation of a Cook Strait territorial base", "sources": [ { "id": "new-zealand-ngati-toa-kapiti-cook-strait-conquests::SRC-01", "title": "Basil Keane, Te Ara—The Encyclopedia of New Zealand, Musket wars overview; Basil Keane, Te Ara—The Encyclopedia of New Zealand, Musket wars: Ngāti Toa and allies", "url": "https://teara.govt.nz/en/musket-wars/page-5", "locator": "Opened Te Ara page 5 and checked “Migrations – ngā heke” and “Wellington battles,” including the 1822 southward movement, revenge against Muaūpoko, capture of Kāpiti Island, movement to the island fortress, and the culminating 1824 Waiorua battle." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "new-zealand-musket-wars-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign the 1822–1824 Kāpiti/Cook Strait migration and consolidation only to this target. Exclude the circa-1827–1837 South Island attacks on Ngāi Tahu and the separate Ngāpuhi and Waikato–Taranaki sequences; the inactive Musket Wars parent remains contextual rather than countable.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_063", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 14.1257288728, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2209521642, "unknown_bound_high": 19.6261204687 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 15.6285791064, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.6285791064, "unknown_bound_high": 15.6285791064 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 65.463056838, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.7062103435, "unknown_bound_high": 92.7688893482 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.2193833473, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.2803486359, "unknown_bound_high": 90.5282014717 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 48.0398109132, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.573942799, "unknown_bound_high": 89.6447577815 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "new-zealand-waikato-taranaki-musket-wars", "name": "Waikato invasions of Taranaki and forced southward movement, 1826–1834", "start": 1826, "end": 1834, "date_label": "1826–1834 CE", "operative_date_start": 1826, "operative_date_end": 1834, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Te Ara dates the first Taranaki invasion to 1826, when Waikato forced a number of tribal groups south; it dates the capture of Pukerangiora to 1831–32, further New Plymouth and Te Namu fighting to 1832, and the Te Ruaki attack to 1834. The range excludes the 1821 Kāwhia and Ōkoki conflict and other Waikato campaigns outside Taranaki.", "region": "Aotearoa New Zealand", "mechanism": "Musket-war invasion; forced southward movement; capture and repeated attack of pā; armed resistance that stopped Waikato at Ngāmotu and Te Namu", "agents": [ "Waikato forces, especially Te Wherowhero and the war parties he led in the 1830s; defending Te Āti Awa and Taranaki forces, including Te Matakatea at Te Namu" ], "victims": [ "Taranaki tribal groups forced south by the 1826 invasion; Te Āti Awa communities at Pukerangiora, Ngāmotu, and Mikotahi; and Taranaki defenders at Te Namu and Te Ruaki. The source gives no complete list or population count." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly identifies the invading and affected groups, named tracts, forced movement, and bounded campaign years. Other Waikato expeditions and other iwi-led Musket War sequences remain excluded.", "disputes": "The locator does not establish a formal governing or legal regime, a defined labor or economic outcome, or sufficiently complete demographic and durability evidence. Displaced group identities, destinations and counts, casualty and captive totals, and tract-level postwar land succession remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Waikato invasion of Taranaki, forced southward movement, and repeated pā conquest and attack from 1826 to 1834", "sources": [ { "id": "new-zealand-waikato-taranaki-musket-wars::SRC-01", "title": "Basil Keane, Musket wars, Te Ara – the Encyclopedia of New Zealand, pages 1 and 4", "url": "https://teara.govt.nz/en/musket-wars/page-4", "locator": "Opened Te Ara page 4 and checked “Hawke’s Bay and Taranaki” and “1830s wars,” especially the 1826 Waikato invasion and forced southward movement, the 1831–32 capture of Pukerangiora, later Taranaki pā fighting, and the 1834 Te Ruaki attack." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "new-zealand-musket-wars-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain a Taranaki-specific Waikato child beginning with the 1826 invasion and ending with the last Taranaki attack named in 1834. Exclude the 1821 Waikato–Ngāti Toa fighting, Waikato campaigns in Hawke’s Bay, Whangārei, and the Bay of Plenty, and the separate Ngāpuhi, Ngāti Toa, and southern campaign children; the national Musket Wars row remains inactive context.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_063", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 11.4941990417, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8835294147, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.1554629518, "unknown_bound_high": 21.8025214812 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 2.4217035529, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7955839891, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 1.926668573, "unknown_bound_high": 22.3682696626 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 6.9948788314, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.9948788314, "unknown_bound_high": 6.9948788314 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 26.7617971238, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4276618452, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.4449995391, "unknown_bound_high": 68.6788150179 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.2952944126, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2465868986, "unknown_bound_high": 74.62150108 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2955807009, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4419299095 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "pacific-australia-south-sea-islander-deportation-1906-1908", "name": "Commonwealth deportation of South Sea Islanders from Australia, late 1906–1908", "start": 1906, "end": 1908, "date_label": "1906–1908 CE", "operative_date_start": 1906, "operative_date_end": 1908, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The National Museum states that the 1901 federal Act required most South Sea Island labourers to be deported starting in 1906 and that deportations actually began in late 1906 and continued until 1908.", "region": "Melanesia and Queensland, Australia", "mechanism": "Statutory exclusion and mass deportation under the Pacific Island Labourers Act; administrative return of residents to countries of origin despite organized protest", "agents": [ "The Australian federal government and officials implementing the Pacific Island Labourers Act; South Sea Islander residents who campaigned against deportation" ], "victims": [ "More than 7,500 South Sea Islanders deported from Australia, including some who had arrived too young to remember their home country; about 2,500 Pacific Islanders who remained are outside the deported cohort" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The museum source directly establishes the law, implementing government, outward cohort, dates, and scale. It is a separate state-removal program from the earlier inward recruitment and excludes Islanders who remained.", "disputes": "The opened source does not provide a bounded-event account of lost wages, occupations, contracts, or household economic effects, and it does not supply person-level deportation records or a complete exemption denominator.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Commonwealth statutory exclusion and mass deportation of South Sea Island residents from Australia", "sources": [ { "id": "pacific-australia-south-sea-islander-deportation-1906-1908::SRC-01", "title": "National Museum of Australia, Islander labourers", "url": "https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/islander-labourers", "locator": "The National Museum page opened and its sections on the 1901 Pacific Island Labourers Act and deportations in late 1906-1908 matched the recorded locator and dates." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "pacific-queensland-labour-trade-deportation" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct from the 1863–1904 recruitment child by its outward direction, Commonwealth government and 1901 federal statute, resident cohort, and 1906–1908 implementation. Recruitment and transport into Queensland and the approximately 2,500 people who remained are excluded.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_066", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.8350054661, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8361781411, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 72.6095334549, "unknown_bound_high": 88.9917193427 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 64.3828915904, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2645055004, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.0296289551, "unknown_bound_high": 90.5790789185 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9256914734, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 7.4308526592 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 65.6630250076, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4791232358, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.4606810124, "unknown_bound_high": 83.5483574349 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.1213504695, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0675234745, "unknown_bound_high": 93.9324765255 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 36.0298581849, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.9441583128, "unknown_bound_high": 85.8953390473 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "pacific-queensland-islander-labour-recruitment-1863-1904", "name": "South Sea Island labour recruitment and transport to Queensland, including blackbirding, 1863–1904", "start": 1863, "end": 1904, "date_label": "1863–1904 CE", "operative_date_start": 1863, "operative_date_end": 1904, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The National Museum dates the first group brought to Queensland to 1863 and states that more than 62,000 men, women, and children were brought between 1863 and 1904. These years bound transport into Queensland, not every labour contract or later residence.", "region": "Melanesia and Queensland, Australia", "mechanism": "Recruitment for plantation labour; kidnapping, deception, and forced recruitment; ship transport; sale or assignment of labour to employers; attempted regulation under Queensland laws that did not end coercive practices", "agents": [ "Queensland plantation and ship owners; predominantly white labour recruiters and agents working for plantation owners or selling recruited labour; Queensland government, inspectors, and agents under the 1868 and 1880 regulatory laws" ], "victims": [ "More than 62,000 Pacific Island men, women, and children from about 80 islands; some were kidnapped or blackbirded and others were deceived, so coercion is not generalized identically to every person" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source supports a bounded inward labor-transfer system and identifies coercive mechanisms without generalizing identical coercion to every migrant. The later Commonwealth deportation differs in authority, direction, and cohort.", "disputes": "All eight domains have event-level support, but the source does not partition voluntary from coerced voyages, identify complete contract or destination histories, or establish a person-level denominator across the many islands and recruiting years.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Plantation-labor recruitment and transport involving kidnapping, deception, forced recruitment, ship movement, and employer assignment", "sources": [ { "id": "pacific-queensland-islander-labour-recruitment-1863-1904::SRC-01", "title": "National Museum of Australia, Islander labourers", "url": "https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/islander-labourers", "locator": "The National Museum page opened and the recruitment, blackbirding, industry, regulatory, and aggregate-count passages matched the packet's 1863-1904 locator." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "pacific-queensland-labour-trade-deportation" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Distinct from the 1906–1908 deportation child by inward movement to Queensland, plantation and shipping actors, colonial Queensland regulation, labour destinations, and a transport interval ending in 1904. The later federal removal of resident Islanders is excluded.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_066", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 38.0535091682, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8292055705, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.5541817791, "unknown_bound_high": 48.6336247296 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 58.6273307729, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3093019947, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.1335503537, "unknown_bound_high": 87.2033508808 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 52.7375369384, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8904990796, "unknown_bound_high": 78.5897503786 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 37.3313776076, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0793726913, "unknown_bound_high": 86.437062096 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 64.6581500419, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.6508619524, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8987147883 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 33.7963519467, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.984305364, "unknown_bound_high": 80.4417518371 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "south-africa-1913-land-act-reserve-dispossession", "name": "Natives Land Act tenure prohibition, reserve confinement, and Black tenant dispossession from 1913", "start": 1913, "end": 1913, "date_label": "from 1913 CE", "operative_date_start": 1913, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "South African History Online dates passage of Act No. 27 to 19 June 1913. The opened body documents immediate legal and dispossessive effects and later continuation but supplies no defensible terminal year for this land regime, so the end remains UNKNOWN.", "region": "South Africa", "mechanism": "Racial statutory prohibition on purchase and hire; demarcation of scheduled areas; anti-squatting rules against sharecropping; replacement of Black tenants with servants or labourers; eviction and reserve confinement", "agents": [ "The white-minority Union government and Parliament; white farmers and landowners applying the tenure and anti-squatting regime" ], "victims": [ "Black African landholders, purchasers, tenants, sharecroppers, and farm communities barred from acquiring or hiring land outside scheduled areas and exposed to tenant elimination, labour dependence, eviction, or movement to reserves" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly establishes the statute, affected population, national land division, and dispossessive mechanisms. Its open endpoint and missing tract-level counts belong in scoring, not in the distinct later urban and Bantustan programs.", "disputes": "The source does not provide a complete count of affected households, a parcel-level map of dispossession, or a single verified endpoint for implementation; those demographic and durability facts remain explicit gaps.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Racial land-tenure prohibition, tenant elimination, eviction, labor dependence, and reserve confinement from 1913", "sources": [ { "id": "south-africa-1913-land-act-reserve-dispossession::SRC-01", "title": "South African History Online, The Natives Land Act of 1913", "url": "https://sahistory.org.za/article/natives-land-act-1913", "locator": "The South African History Online article opened and the 19 June 1913 enactment, scheduled-area restrictions, anti-squatting provisions, and eviction consequences matched the packet locator." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "south-africa-land-act-apartheid-removals" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain the 1913 land-regime child for agricultural and land-tenure exclusion and reserve confinement. Exclude the later Group Areas urban-zoning removals and the Bantustan-consolidation removal-order program; the national 1913–1994 umbrella remains inactive context.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_069", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.2144533788, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8577187195, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 66.2282820818, "unknown_bound_high": 80.4564101281 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 74.2020879352, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4627348249, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.3358901686, "unknown_bound_high": 88.0624076777 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7018361081, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 29.8163891906 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 13.4540062018, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3361296328, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.5222901637, "unknown_bound_high": 70.9093268881 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.3202867588, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4062763888, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.4439443855, "unknown_bound_high": 79.8163055099 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1059221108, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.9441583128, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3519472291 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "south-africa-bantustan-consolidation-removals", "name": "Apartheid Bantustan consolidation and community-removal program, documented from 1972", "start": 1972, "end": 1972, "date_label": "from 1972 CE", "operative_date_start": 1972, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "The timeline documents Department of Bantu Development planning from 15 February 1972, specific KwaZulu and Transvaal consolidation proposals during 1972, and the 1973 Black Laws Amendment Act removal-order power. These are a documented evidence floor, not a demonstrated program onset or endpoint, so the end remains UNKNOWN.", "region": "South Africa", "mechanism": "Homeland consolidation through land purchase and tract recombination; statutory community or tribal removal orders with restricted appeal; forced resettlement to homelands; Bantustan betterment-scheme removals", "agents": [ "The apartheid South African government; Department of Bantu Development; Parliament and officials empowered to plan consolidation, purchase land, and issue or approve community removal orders" ], "victims": [ "Black communities or tribes subject to consolidation removal orders; residents of black spots, Zulu areas, and other homeland tracts proposed for consolidation; people forced from homes into homelands or affected by Bantustan betterment schemes. The sources do not show that every proposed community was moved." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources establish a distinct institution, legal removal mechanism, affected communities, and homeland land program while warning that proposals are not all completed moves. Implementation uncertainty is retained at the cell level rather than erasing the qualifying program.", "disputes": "The opened passages establish the program mechanism but do not show that every consolidation proposal was completed, enumerate the specific orders and moves, quantify employment effects, or provide a complete affected-population and endpoint series.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Bantustan tract consolidation using removal orders, forced homeland resettlement, and betterment-scheme removals", "sources": [ { "id": "south-africa-bantustan-consolidation-removals::SRC-01", "title": "South African History Online, General South African History Timeline: 1970s; South African History Online, Forced Removals in South Africa", "url": "https://sahistory.org.za/article/forced-removals-south-africa", "locator": "The forced-removals article opened at its Bantustan-betterment category, and the 1970s timeline opened at the February 1972 consolidation planning and 1973 removal-order provisions cited by the packet." }, { "id": "south-africa-bantustan-consolidation-removals::SRC-02", "title": "South African History Online, General South African History Timeline: 1970s; South African History Online, Forced Removals in South Africa", "url": "https://sahistory.org.za/article/general-south-african-history-timeline-1970s", "locator": "The forced-removals article opened at its Bantustan-betterment category, and the 1970s timeline opened at the February 1972 consolidation planning and 1973 removal-order provisions cited by the packet." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "south-africa-land-act-apartheid-removals" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain a homeland-consolidation child centered on Bantustan tract recombination, removal-order authority, and homeland resettlement. Exclude the 1913 purchase-and-hire prohibition and Group Areas urban racial zoning; black-spot, farm, infrastructure, and other removal categories are not absorbed unless directly part of consolidation.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_069", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.7050871455, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9285857578, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.3702805703, "unknown_bound_high": 89.5117047874 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 80.8207572665, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6233913659, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 50.3829622619, "unknown_bound_high": 88.0438256763 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9256914734, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 7.4308526592 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.0952314228, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 90.4768577157 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 67.1456181315, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.9350526267, "unknown_bound_high": 87.3099668081 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1059221108, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.5922110837, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "south-africa-cape-khoekhoe-land-labor-dispossession-1652-1806", "name": "Dutch Cape expansion, Khoikhoi pastoral-land dispossession, and servant incorporation, 1652–1806", "start": 1652, "end": 1806, "date_label": "1652–1806 CE", "operative_date_start": 1652, "operative_date_end": 1806, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "South African History Online dates the Dutch colony and colonial forced-labour model from 1652 and dates the British reoccupation that ended the Dutch political phase to 1806. The direct Khoikhoi passage places core Table Bay dispossession within about 50 years of settlement and survival farther inland to the late eighteenth century; 1806 is an institutional cutoff, not a claim that all land loss or labour incorporation ended then.", "region": "Cape region", "mechanism": "Colonial land allocation and settler agricultural expansion into seasonal pastoral land; conflict over land, flocks, and herds; destruction of independent means of existence; incorporation of dispossessed people into low-status farm and colonial service", "agents": [ "The Dutch East India Company and Jan van Riebeeck’s Cape administration; free burgher farmers and other Dutch settlers expanding agricultural production" ], "victims": [ "Khoikhoi pastoral communities near Table Bay dispossessed of land and independent subsistence; individual Khoikhoi men and women incorporated into colonial society as low-status servants" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly connects land allocation and settler expansion to Khoikhoi territorial and economic dispossession and servant incorporation under the Dutch colonial regime. San commando clearance is a different affected population and mechanism.", "disputes": "All domains have coarse event support, but the article does not provide parcel histories, annual population estimates, individual labor statuses, or a precise onset and endpoint for each local community within the long 1652-1806 span.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Settler agricultural expansion into seasonal pastoral land, loss of herds and subsistence, and incorporation of dispossessed Khoikhoi into colonial service", "sources": [ { "id": "south-africa-cape-khoekhoe-land-labor-dispossession-1652-1806::SRC-01", "title": "South African History Online, History of slavery and early colonisation in South Africa", "url": "https://sahistory.org.za/article/history-slavery-and-early-colonisation-south-africa", "locator": "The South African History Online article opened and its 1652 VOC settlement, 1657 free-burgher land grants, Khoekhoe dispossession and incorporation, and 1806 British transition matched the packet boundary." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "parent_event_ids": [ "south-africa-cape-khoekhoe-san-frontier" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain one linked Khoikhoi land-and-labour child for the Dutch Cape phase: loss of pastoral land and independent subsistence explains the directly described servant incorporation. Exclude the San-specific livestock destruction, lethal commando raids, displacement, and captive seizure reviewed separately.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_068", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 51.959290788, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6306728102, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 32.7693119395, "unknown_bound_high": 69.7020309152 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 69.9146987656, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3341830377, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3643064103, "unknown_bound_high": 89.9460026447 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 63.3591221796, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1390595235, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.8106893402, "unknown_bound_high": 94.9047369893 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 40.5638933794, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2905629108, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.7863629337, "unknown_bound_high": 82.7300718537 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.2193833473, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.2803486359, "unknown_bound_high": 90.5282014717 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.7869713995, "unknown_bound_high": 95.2130286005 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "south-africa-cape-san-commando-clearance-1700s-1806", "name": "Dutch-settler and Boer-commando killing, displacement, and captive seizure of San before 1806", "start": 1806, "end": 1806, "date_label": "through 1806 CE", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": 1806, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known end used only as a model coordinate; onset year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "The source frames the discussion within political changes from 1750 and states that by the British takeover in 1806 Dutch farmers controlled much western land and the described San killing, flight, and commando raids had occurred. It gives no onset or final raid year, so the start remains UNKNOWN and 1806 is an evidence cutoff and colonial-regime boundary.", "region": "Cape region", "mechanism": "Destruction of subsistence livestock; lethal settler violence; displacement into arid regions; Boer commando raids that killed men and captured women and children as cheap farm labour", "agents": [ "Dutch settlers and farmers; Boer commandos conducting raids" ], "victims": [ "San hunter-gatherer communities whose livestock were killed; San people killed by settlers; survivors displaced to the Great Karoo; men killed and women and children captured by commandos for farm labour" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The direct passage establishes a San-specific killing, territorial-clearance, and captive-labor system before the 1806 regime boundary. It does not borrow the Khoikhoi land-and-servant mechanism represented by its sibling.", "disputes": "The opened passage does not identify a single enabling statute or complete institutional chain, and it supplies neither an onset year nor counts of people killed, displaced, captured, or surviving beyond the 1806 boundary.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Destruction of San subsistence, lethal commando violence, displacement into the Great Karoo, and seizure of women and children for farm labor", "sources": [ { "id": "south-africa-cape-san-commando-clearance-1700s-1806::SRC-01", "title": "South African History Online, Political changes from 1750 to 1820", "url": "https://sahistory.org.za/article/political-changes-1750-1820", "locator": "The South African History Online article opened and its western Cape conditions by the 1806 British takeover, including settler commandos, San killings, livestock loss, flight, and captivity, matched the locator." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "south-africa-cape-khoekhoe-san-frontier" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain a San-specific child defined by lethal violence, survival-resource destruction, displacement, and commando captive seizure. Exclude the separately described Khoi grazing-land loss and movement into herding or servant work; later British mission and reserve policies also remain outside this pre-1806 unit.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_068", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 42.907290039, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6985700877, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 29.9737493651, "unknown_bound_high": 60.1167405961 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 9.2158006623, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6515227114, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0043034355, "unknown_bound_high": 40.8520322929 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 42.7166017986, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5525527387, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.6031753121, "unknown_bound_high": 68.3479014413 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 74.4652825273, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.3086298163, "unknown_bound_high": 86.8636765225 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 58.1351875191, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.1746188908, "unknown_bound_high": 87.6320653639 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "south-africa-group-areas-urban-forced-removals", "name": "Group Areas Act urban racial zoning and forced removals, 1950–1991", "start": 1950, "end": 1991, "date_label": "1950–1991 CE", "operative_date_start": 1950, "operative_date_end": 1991, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "South African History Online dates the Group Areas Act from its promulgation on 7 July 1950 to repeal in 1991. The source reports more than 3.5 million people forcibly removed under the Act by 1982; the statutory range does not imply that removals were uniform in every year or place.", "region": "South Africa", "mechanism": "Racial designation of urban group areas; restrictions on cross-racial property purchase, sale, lease, and occupation; eviction and forced resettlement through physical violence, demolition, intimidation, service closure, building restrictions, and economic pressure", "agents": [ "The National Party apartheid government and Parliament; the Group Areas Board under the Minister of the Interior; state and local authorities implementing proclamations and removals" ], "victims": [ "Urban Black, Coloured, and Asian residents, especially Indian communities, evicted or excluded from racially designated areas; a small number of White residents were also affected, but the source identifies non-White populations as the large majority" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly establishes the governing statute, board, affected urban populations, property regime, and coercive removal mechanisms. Agricultural reserve law and Bantustan consolidation remain separate children.", "disputes": "All eight domains are supported at program scale, but the aggregate combines categories and localities and does not provide a complete municipality-by-municipality sequence, property ledger, household denominator, or remedy history.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Racial urban zoning, cross-racial property restrictions, eviction, demolition, and forced resettlement from 1950 to 1991", "sources": [ { "id": "south-africa-group-areas-urban-forced-removals::SRC-01", "title": "South African History Online, Forced Removals in South Africa", "url": "https://sahistory.org.za/article/forced-removals-south-africa", "locator": "The South African History Online article opened and its Group Areas Act discussion of racial zoning, property restrictions, removal categories, coercive methods, and aggregate removals matched the packet locator." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "south-africa-land-act-apartheid-removals" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retain a Group Areas urban-zoning child. Exclude the 1913 agricultural land-tenure and reserve regime and the Bantustan-consolidation program; also exclude farm, black-spot, infrastructure, military, political, and Bantustan-betterment categories unless independently tied to an urban Group Areas proclamation.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_069", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.1556366246, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.1556366246, "unknown_bound_high": 84.1556366246 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 91.7479073033, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7276097902, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 66.7566755808, "unknown_bound_high": 93.9956965645 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 2.1015009555, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8839934904, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.8577131648, "unknown_bound_high": 13.4583641222 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 25.9241305511, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3116545288, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0793726913, "unknown_bound_high": 76.9139198118 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 51.8052084083, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 33.3200179676, "unknown_bound_high": 69.0021260193 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 74.0199054566, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.3205151746, "unknown_bound_high": 94.2716959091 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-bwindi-mgahinga-national-park-eviction", "name": "Ugandan national-park establishment and Batwa eviction at Bwindi and Mgahinga, 1991", "start": 1991, "end": 1991, "date_label": "1991 CE", "operative_date_start": 1991, "operative_date_end": 1991, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Mukasa's abstract identifies a 1991 Bwindi-and-Mgahinga eviction instrument, and table 1 dates Mgahinga's national-park gazettement to May 1991 and Bwindi's to the 13 August 1991 resolution. Kokunda et al. independently place establishment of the parks and the forced Batwa eviction in 1991.", "region": "East Africa (southwestern Uganda)", "mechanism": "National-park gazettement followed by coercive eviction and exclusion from ancestral forest land and resources, including armed enforcement; no compensatory land or organized resettlement accompanied the removal.", "agents": [ "Ugandan government and Uganda National Parks authorities implementing the gazettement and removals; Batwa forest communities as the displaced population." ], "victims": [ "Batwa people living in and using the Bwindi and Mgahinga forests, including households removed without consultation, compensation, or a resettlement program." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources converge on one 1991 government action at the two adjacent parks and directly establish removal without consultation, compensation, or resettlement. Echuya has a different institutional and chronological history and is excluded.", "disputes": "All domains have direct support, but the opened source does not establish a complete household count, parcel-by-parcel boundary history, uniform eviction day, compensation ledger, or full legal-status history for every affected Batwa community.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "National-park gazettement followed by armed eviction and exclusion of Batwa households from ancestral forest land and resources", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-bwindi-mgahinga-national-park-eviction::SRC-01", "title": "Kokunda et al., 'Batwa Indigenous Peoples forced eviction for Conservation' (PLOS Global Public Health full HTML); Norman Mukasa, 'The Batwa Indigenous People in Uganda and their Detachment from Forest Livelihood' (complete PDF); Uganda Ministry of Water and Environment/National Forestry Authority, 'Vulnerable and Marginalized Groups Plan for the Batwa around Echuya Central Forest Reserve' (complete PDF).", "url": "https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0002129", "locator": "The PLOS Global Public Health article opened and its abstract and findings on the 1991 establishment of Bwindi and Mgahinga parks, forced Batwa eviction, and continuing consequences matched the packet locator." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "af-batwa-bwindi-mgahinga-eviction" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No overlap with a prospective Echuya unit: the government plan identifies Bwindi and Mgahinga as national parks requiring their own site plans, while Echuya has a 1939-1948 crown/central-forest-reserve lineage and National Forestry Authority administration. Keep Echuya's trigger, date, communities, and tracts outside this identity.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_001", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.7117812001, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8361781411, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.9979615938, "unknown_bound_high": 86.3801474817 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 41.574671409, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7508669099, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 31.2170450528, "unknown_bound_high": 56.1303540584 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9256914734, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 7.4308526592 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 81.4171983657, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6600148423, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 53.7365593416, "unknown_bound_high": 87.7350751094 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 52.2569210761, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.8835486404, "unknown_bound_high": 75.4385953466 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.0746458984, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8219600229, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.5569972926, "unknown_bound_high": 66.3609950075 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-vieques-navy-expropriation-and-relocation", "name": "U.S. Navy expropriation, resident relocation, military tenure, and land transfers on Vieques, 1941-2003", "start": 1941, "end": 2003, "date_label": "1941–2003 CE", "operative_date_start": 1941, "operative_date_end": 2003, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Ayala documents the first condemnation/acquisition process beginning in 1941, with major acquisition rounds in 1942-1943 and 1947. The CRS report identifies the western transfer/closure in 2001 and the eastern training cessation and transfer in 2003, which bounds the Navy-tenure endpoint.", "region": "Caribbean (Puerto Rico)", "mechanism": "Federal condemnation and purchase, destruction or removal of settlements, family relocation and spatial compression into the central zone, military storage and live-fire/training tenure, followed by statutory closure and federal land transfers.", "agents": [ "United States federal government and U.S. Navy as acquiring and controlling authorities; Congress and federal recipient agencies in the terminal transfers; Vieques landowners, workers, tenants, and resident families as the affected population." ], "victims": [ "Vieques residents whose homes, employment, farms, and barrios were displaced or reorganized, including families relocated into the constrained central civilian zone." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly link Vieques-specific acquisition rounds to resident displacement and central-zone relocation through distinct closure endpoints. Shared Navy purpose does not merge the island with Culebra.", "disputes": "All domains are supported, while exact household counts, parcel-title chains, compensation adequacy, individual destination histories, and the practical public-access status of every transferred tract remain unsupported by the opened locators.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Federal land condemnation and purchase, settlement destruction, family relocation, spatial compression, military tenure, and later land transfer on Vieques", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-vieques-navy-expropriation-and-relocation::SRC-01", "title": "César J. Ayala, 'From Sugar Plantations to Military Bases: The U.S. Navy's Expropriations in Vieques, Puerto Rico, 1940-45' (complete PDF); David Bearden, Congressional Research Service, 'Vieques and Culebra Islands: An Analysis of Cleanup Status and Costs' (complete report body).", "url": "https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL32533.html", "locator": "The CRS report opened at the Vieques land-transfer and training-cessation sections, and the Ayala PDF opened at the 1941-1947 condemnation, relocation, barrio-loss, and employment-impact passages cited in the packet." }, { "id": "prospective-vieques-navy-expropriation-and-relocation::SRC-02", "title": "César J. Ayala, 'From Sugar Plantations to Military Bases: The U.S. Navy's Expropriations in Vieques, Puerto Rico, 1940-45' (complete PDF); David Bearden, Congressional Research Service, 'Vieques and Culebra Islands: An Analysis of Cleanup Status and Costs' (complete report body).", "url": "https://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/soc/faculty/ayala/vieques/web/07ayalasugaroplanttomilitary.pdf", "locator": "The CRS report opened at the Vieques land-transfer and training-cessation sections, and the Ayala PDF opened at the 1941-1947 condemnation, relocation, barrio-loss, and employment-impact passages cited in the packet." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "am-vieques-culebra-navy-expropriations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with Culebra: Vieques has different tracts, residents, 1940s acquisition rounds, a central relocation zone, and 2001/2003 closure and transfer endpoints. Shared Navy purpose and a combined cleanup report do not merge the islands.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_005", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.6677102629, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6677102629, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6677102629 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 70.1280487984, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8820517642, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.8565691634, "unknown_bound_high": 73.6513927422 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 9.4801233308, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9256914734, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.7756693342, "unknown_bound_high": 16.2065219934 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 73.2195377952, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7813027371, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 57.2066252887, "unknown_bound_high": 79.0763515786 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 51.8052084083, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 33.3200179676, "unknown_bound_high": 69.0021260193 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 45.6975930893, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7792553267, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 35.6100928329, "unknown_bound_high": 57.6845601615 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-culebra-navy-control-resident-relocation-and-range-closure", "name": "U.S. Navy control, resident relocation, live-fire use, and range closure on Culebra, 1901-1975", "start": 1901, "end": 1975, "date_label": "1901–1975 CE", "operative_date_start": 1901, "operative_date_end": 1975, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The CRS report states that President Theodore Roosevelt placed Culebra under Navy control in 1901, that the residential population was relocated outside the bombardment zone, and that live-fire operations continued until 1975 after the 1974 statutory cessation direction.", "region": "Caribbean (Puerto Rico)", "mechanism": "Executive placement under Navy control, resident relocation outside a bombardment zone, prolonged live-fire and training use, congressional cessation, and 1975 transfer or retention of former range lands.", "agents": [ "President Theodore Roosevelt and the United States federal government; U.S. Navy as controlling and range authority; Congress, the General Services Administration, and Interior Department in cessation and disposition; Culebra residents as the relocated population." ], "victims": [ "Culebra's residential population relocated outside the Navy bombardment zone and residents exposed to the island-specific constraints of prolonged range use." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source supplies a complete island-specific control, relocation, military-use, and closure chain. Its tract, residents, chronology, and endpoint differ from Vieques, requiring an independent profile.", "disputes": "The CRS locator does not quantify employment, livelihood, or income effects on residents, and it does not provide household-level relocation records, parcel titles, compensation details, or complete post-transfer access conditions.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Executive Navy control, relocation of residents outside a bombardment zone, prolonged live-fire use, and 1975 land disposition on Culebra", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-culebra-navy-control-resident-relocation-and-range-closure::SRC-01", "title": "David Bearden, Congressional Research Service, 'Vieques and Culebra Islands: An Analysis of Cleanup Status and Costs' (complete report body); César J. Ayala, 'From Sugar Plantations to Military Bases' (complete PDF, opened as the cited Vieques comparator).", "url": "https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL32533.html", "locator": "The CRS report opened and its Culebra chronology for 1901 naval control, required relocation outside the bombardment zone, 1974 statutory closure, 1975 training cessation, and subsequent land transfer matched the locator." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "am-vieques-culebra-navy-expropriations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with Vieques: Culebra's 1901 control, resident relocation, bombardment-zone geography, and 1975 cessation/disposition are island-specific. The combined Navy purpose and cleanup administration are not a common triggering action or common affected tract.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_005", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.0161068019, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.875222968, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.9107249389, "unknown_bound_high": 97.388428139 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 35.3579398261, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6411141345, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 22.6684749896, "unknown_bound_high": 58.5570615387 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 35.9432878065, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5201350852, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.6953650653, "unknown_bound_high": 66.6818565462 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 45.2703981659, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5018029194, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.7168179631, "unknown_bound_high": 72.5365260209 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.6495442033, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5147785665, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.1324140236, "unknown_bound_high": 76.6545573759 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-miletus-destruction-ampe-deportation-and-land-redistribution-494-bce", "name": "Achaemenid capture of Miletus, captive settlement at Ampe, and land disposition", "start": -494, "end": -494, "date_label": "494 BCE", "operative_date_start": -494, "operative_date_end": -494, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Gorman explicitly discusses occupation between 494 and 479 BCE and identifies Mycale in 479 as fifteen years after the destruction. Herodotus 6.18-22 supplies the single capture-and-disposition sequence; together the opened bodies resolve the event to 494 BCE.", "region": "Western Asia", "mechanism": "Siege and capture, killing and enslavement, plunder and burning at Didyma, forced deportation and state resettlement at Ampe, Persian seizure of city/plain land, and allocation of the heights to Carians.", "agents": [ "Darius I and Persian/Achaemenid forces as conquering and allocating authorities", "Pedeiseis/Pidasians as highland beneficiaries; no migration from Halicarnassian Pedasa is asserted" ], "victims": [ "Milesians affected by capture, killing and enslavement; an unquantified captive cohort was settled at Ampe", "Other survivors and absentees outside that cohort; not all enslaved women and children are known to have reached Ampe" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Herodotus directly joins the coercive dispositions and territorial redistribution in one 494 BCE Achaemenid program. The later refoundation has different agency, direction, and land outcome; no Ampe return is inferred.", "disputes": "Exact victim totals, household destinations, redistribution parcels and recipients, labor outcomes, and a complete demographic accounting through the later refoundation remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "City destruction, killing and enslavement, forced settlement of captives at Ampe, and redistribution of Milesian land", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-miletus-destruction-ampe-deportation-and-land-redistribution-494-bce::SRC-01", "title": "Herodotus, Histories book 6 sections 18-22 (complete cited web body); Vanessa B. Gorman, 'Milesian Decrees of Isopoliteia and the Refoundation of the City, ca. 479 BCE' (complete official University of Nebraska-Lincoln repository PDF, the same article as the cited copy).", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Herodotus/6A%2A.html", "locator": "Herodotus 6.18.1-22.1, especially 6.19.3-20.2" }, { "id": "prospective-miletus-destruction-ampe-deportation-and-land-redistribution-494-bce::SRC-02", "title": "Herodotus, Histories book 6 sections 18-22 (complete cited web body); Vanessa B. Gorman, 'Milesian Decrees of Isopoliteia and the Refoundation of the City, ca. 479 BCE' (complete official University of Nebraska-Lincoln repository PDF, the same article as the cited copy).", "url": "https://api.drum.lib.umd.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/3376e30a-0e73-4685-8816-20b6dd5243f1/content", "locator": "Gorman, printed pp. 182-183/PDF pp. 2-3, discussion of destruction, emptiness, and the interval to Mycale" }, { "id": "prospective-miletus-destruction-ampe-deportation-and-land-redistribution-494-bce::SRC-03", "title": "Herodotus, Histories book 6 sections 18-22 (complete cited web body); Vanessa B. Gorman, 'Milesian Decrees of Isopoliteia and the Refoundation of the City, ca. 479 BCE' (complete official University of Nebraska-Lincoln repository PDF, the same article as the cited copy).", "url": "https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/historyfacpub/15/", "locator": "Gorman article landing record and abstract" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-achaemenid-miletus-ampe-land-redistribution" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "The 494 destruction/deportation/redistribution is disjoint from the c.479 refoundation: the latter has a post-Mycale trigger, return-and-colonist cohorts, rebuilding and citizenship mechanisms, and a restored city outcome. No opened source says that the Ampe captives returned.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_006", "metadata_scope_qualifier": "The 494 capture/disposition and post-Mycale rebuilding are historically distinct. Under Batch 29 the latter is non-counted aftermath, not an admitted restoration event; no Ampe return is demonstrated.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.6465868927, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9059301142, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.3076125861, "unknown_bound_high": 89.7146011672 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 18.4030804442, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6515227114, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 11.9900248696, "unknown_bound_high": 46.837753727 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 79.0626790046 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 83.7363872272, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3730735329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.2398298133, "unknown_bound_high": 93.9324765255 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 36.0298581849, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 87.2512720817 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-paeonian-deportation-to-phrygia-approximately-512-bce", "name": "Megabazus's deportation of named Paeonian communities to Phrygia, approximately 512 BCE", "start": -512, "end": -512, "date_label": "c. 512 BCE", "operative_date_start": -512, "operative_date_end": -512, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Herodotus gives relative sequence but no absolute year. Two bounded authoritative alternatives place Darius's Danube/Scythian expedition about 513 BCE and Megabazus's ensuing Thracian and northern-Aegean reduction shortly afterward, completed within the broader consolidation by about 510 BCE. The 513–510 BCE context is a dating window, not continuous deportation; the corrected historical fields use c. 512 BCE; the exact year remains unresolved and approximately 512 BCE is supportable within that window.", "region": "Southern Europe / Western Asia", "mechanism": "Royal deportation order, military entry by an unguarded route, capture or surrender of towns, family removal into captivity, transport to Asia, and imposed resettlement in Phrygia.", "agents": [ "Darius I", "Megabazus", "Persian forces" ], "victims": [ "Men, women, and children of the named Paeonian communities seized and carried to Asia; Paeonians of the interior, around Mount Pangaeum, and in the lake dwellings who were not subdued are excluded." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Herodotus directly bounds the affected communities, excluded groups, family scope, coercive route, and destination. Approximate chronology remains explicit; the later partial return has different actors, direction, and participating cohort.", "disputes": "The sources do not establish the deportees' labor obligations or economic position in Phrygia, an exact year or day, total numbers, a precise settlement location, land-title changes, or the fate of every deported subgroup.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Royal military seizure and family deportation of named Paeonian communities followed by imposed resettlement in Phrygia", "sources": [ { "title": "Herodotus, Histories", "locator": "5.14–17, 5.23 and 5.98; one ancient narrative, including Hellespont crossing and Sardis custody", "role": "ancient_narrative", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_26_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Paeonian public authorization" }, "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Herodotus/5a%2A.html" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica, Darius iii. Darius I the Great", "locator": "chronology and source criticism; not independent primary corroboration", "role": "modern_reference", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_26_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Paeonian public authorization" }, "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/darius-iii/?generate_pdf=1" }, { "title": "Encyclopaedia Iranica, Herodotus vi. Darius According to Herodotus", "locator": "chronology and source criticism; not independent primary corroboration", "role": "modern_reference", "reference": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/ATLAS_AUTHORING_BATCH_26_ADJUDICATION.md", "locator": "## Paeonian public authorization" }, "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/herodotus-vi/" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-achaemenid-paeonians-phrygia-return" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "The deportation is distinct from the later partial return: Darius and Megabazus compel eastward family removal, whereas Aristagoras's invitation enables a self-directed westward flight by only some deportees. The population history is linked, but cohorts, direction, actors, mechanism, and land outcome are nonidentical; those who remained in Phrygia are excluded from the return unit.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_007", "metadata_date_semantics": { "interpretation": "Approximate event date; 513–510 BCE is contextual dating uncertainty, not continuous deportation.", "kind": "approximate_event", "contextual_window": [ -513, -510 ] }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 95.0155700601, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8452047652, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.3076125861, "unknown_bound_high": 95.7871360629 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 36.3836541118, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2645055004, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.623676636, "unknown_bound_high": 83.1731265994 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 92.8579289426, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3838918129, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 35.6473986869, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 44.6315819403, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3730735329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.6508619524, "unknown_bound_high": 79.3435086646 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 13.0570434772, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4171744446, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 63.7296204001 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-partial-paeonian-return-during-the-ionian-revolt-approximately-498-bce", "name": "Partial flight and return of deported Paeonians from Phrygia to Paeonia, approximately 498 BCE", "start": -498, "end": -498, "date_label": "498 BCE", "operative_date_start": -498, "operative_date_end": -498, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Herodotus places the invitation and flight in 5.98 between the Athenian commitment in 5.97 and the allied ships' arrival at Miletus in 5.99. Encyclopaedia Iranica's Ionian Revolt chronology dates that bracketing sequence to early 498 BCE. The 498 date is therefore an explicit chronology-based inference; the proposed approximately 499 BCE identity is not supported.", "region": "Southern Europe / Western Asia", "mechanism": "Revolt-linked invitation, collective escape with families, assisted maritime passage, overland return, and pursuit by Persian cavalry; this was a partial return rather than a reversal affecting every deportee.", "agents": [ "Aristagoras of Miletus and his messenger; participating Paeonian deportees; Chians and Lesbians who carried them by sea; Persian cavalry pursuing them; deportees who declined to flee as a retained cohort." ], "victims": [ "Only the Paeonian deportees who accepted the invitation and fled with their women and children; some deportees feared the attempt and remained in Phrygia." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source identifies a finite participating cohort, route, pursuit, and actual homeward movement while expressly preserving those who remained in Phrygia. This is a distinct partial reversal rather than a cancellation of the earlier deportation.", "disputes": "The opened locators do not identify a formal legal or governance arrangement for return, labor or livelihood consequences, the size of the returning and remaining groups, an exact date, or the returnees' later settlement durability.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Collective family escape and implemented return of part of the deported Paeonian population from Phrygia to Paeonia", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-partial-paeonian-return-during-the-ionian-revolt-approximately-498-bce::SRC-01", "title": "Herodotus, Histories 5.98 and 5.14-17 (both complete cited bodies); Ernst Badian, Encyclopaedia Iranica, 'IONIAN REVOLT' (one targeted authoritative alternative; review stopped after resolving the chronology).", "url": "https://lexundria.com/hdt/5.98/mcly", "locator": "Lexundria opened at Herodotus 5.98 and Iranica opened at the Ionian Revolt chronology; the invitation, partial family flight, route, Persian pursuit, return to Paeonia, and early-498 BCE bracket matched the packet locator." }, { "id": "prospective-partial-paeonian-return-during-the-ionian-revolt-approximately-498-bce::SRC-02", "title": "Herodotus, Histories 5.98 and 5.14-17 (both complete cited bodies); Ernst Badian, Encyclopaedia Iranica, 'IONIAN REVOLT' (one targeted authoritative alternative; review stopped after resolving the chronology).", "url": "https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/ionian-revolt/", "locator": "Lexundria opened at Herodotus 5.98 and Iranica opened at the Ionian Revolt chronology; the invitation, partial family flight, route, Persian pursuit, return to Paeonia, and early-498 BCE bracket matched the packet locator." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-achaemenid-paeonians-phrygia-return" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "This return is linked to but nonduplicative of the earlier deportation: it reverses direction, follows Aristagoras's revolt initiative, uses flight and assisted transport rather than royal compulsion, and covers only the participating cohort. Paeonians who remained in Phrygia are excluded.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_007", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": null, "primary_family_review": { "status": "EVIDENCE_HOLD", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": true, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 18.4812763311, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8951170479, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.5429055105, "unknown_bound_high": 27.0312007231 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 2.6142817127, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8249059972, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.1565366633, "unknown_bound_high": 19.6659369406 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 81.5096213346, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3910742329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.8763126339, "unknown_bound_high": 92.7688893482 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 56.3760670747, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.578263215, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.6002057979, "unknown_bound_high": 74.773884294 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3242970955, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 67.5702904528 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-amenhotep-ii-year-7-campaign-captive-removal", "name": "Amenhotep II's Year 7 Retjenu campaign captive removal and return to Memphis", "start": -1420, "end": -1420, "date_label": "Amenhotep II, regnal Year 7 (absolute date unresolved)", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: ancient-egypt-amenhotep-ii-year7-year9-deportations", "date_resolution": "The Memphis Stela dates the first victorious Retjenu campaign to Amenhotep II's regnal year 7, month 1 of shemu, day 25 (sentences 1 and 6), then records its own return to Memphis and captive list (sentences 46 and 48). Langer's 2022 chapter gives differing absolute reign bounds in prose and table (1427–1400 and 1425–1400 BCE), so no exact absolute BCE year is assigned and both year fields remain UNKNOWN.", "region": "Western Asia / North Africa", "mechanism": "Military campaigning, capture of people together with property and animals, removal as booty/captives, and transport to Memphis/Egypt; Langer identifies such wartime deportation as forcible state transfer distinct from structural labor mobilization.", "agents": [ "Amenhotep II and the Egyptian campaign army as captors and removers; rulers, elite households, and communities encountered in Retjenu as the source-side parties." ], "victims": [ "The stela's Year 7 list separately names maryannu, their wives, Canaanites, rulers' sons and daughters, and women singers. Its figures are preserved only as inscriptional claims and are not combined with the Year 9 list." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The primary text directly links the Year 7 campaign to a separate captive return and list; inscriptional quantities remain attributed claims rather than exact totals. Shared ruler and policy do not merge the independently dated Year 9 campaign.", "disputes": "The opened inscription does not establish the captives' later legal status, governance arrangements, work assignments, economic treatment, individual identities, destination beyond royal arrival, or the reliability and completeness of the listed totals.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Wartime capture and forced transport of named Retjenu population categories to Memphis and Egypt", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-amenhotep-ii-year-7-campaign-captive-removal::SRC-01", "title": "Thesaurus Linguae Aegyptiae, Memphis Stela of Amenhotep II, text ID 7MOMKHXNMNAEDEU7CVLCWQ45OE (complete sentence body and metadata); Christian Langer, 'Forced Labour and Deportations in Ancient Egypt' (complete cited article body); Christian Langer, 'Deportation Policies in Egypt's Late Bronze Age Empire' (complete cited chapter body).", "url": "https://thesaurus-linguae-aegyptiae.de/text/7MOMKHXNMNAEDEU7CVLCWQ45OE/sentences", "locator": "The Thesaurus Linguae Aegyptiae sentence viewer opened and the Year 7 date in sentence 1, return to Memphis, and captive and property list near sentence 48 matched the packet's recorded locator." }, { "title": "Filip Taterka, The chronology of the reign of Amenhotep II (2019)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/0307513319885097", "locator": "pp. 50-52, Year 7/Year 9 campaign and co-regency chronology discussion" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-egypt-amenhotep-ii-year7-year9-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the Year 9 target: Year 7 has a different regnal date, first-campaign label, campaign sequence, affected communities, return, and captive/booty list. Shared ruler, army, broad region, and Egyptward direction are contextual links only; no totals may be aggregated across the two targets.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_009", "post_v5_source_calibration": "The numerical -1420 coordinate remains an internal sort proxy only. The direct date is regnal Year 7, first month of shemu, day 25. Final institutional destinations, long-term settlement, return, mortality, and labor assignment remain unknown.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 86.5292406006, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 86.5292406006, "unknown_bound_high": 86.5292406006 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.0918217936, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7430974325, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 8.9854017291, "unknown_bound_high": 34.6756584791 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.0647509969, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 64.6581500419, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.6508619524, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8987147883 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-amenhotep-ii-year-9-campaign-captive-removal", "name": "Amenhotep II's Year 9 Retjenu campaign and captive removal", "start": -1420, "end": -1420, "date_label": "Amenhotep II, regnal Year 9 (absolute date unresolved)", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: ancient-egypt-amenhotep-ii-year7-year9-deportations", "date_resolution": "The Memphis Stela begins the second victorious Retjenu campaign in Amenhotep II's regnal year 9, third month of akhet (sentences 50 and 51), then records its own return to Memphis and captive lists (sentences 57, 63–64, 76, and 78). Because the opened scholarly chronology gives differing absolute reign bounds, both absolute-year fields remain UNKNOWN rather than manufacturing a BCE conversion.", "region": "Western Asia / North Africa", "mechanism": "Royal military capture and removal from the Retjenu campaign zone into Egyptian custody; final destinations are unknown.", "agents": [ "Amenhotep II and the Egyptian campaign army" ], "victims": [ "The separately listed rulers, relatives, maryannu, Asiatics, Apiru, Shasu, Syrians, people of Nukhashshe, dependants, adults, children, and wives named by the Year 9 inscription; the lists are contradictory or non-additive and do not establish one reconciled cohort total" ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "high on the separate Year 9 campaign, capture, and removal; low or unknown on the absolute BCE date, reconciled total, individual routes, final destinations, labor assignments, mortality, return, and descendants", "summary": "The Year 9 inscription supports a separate Retjenu campaign and large-scale captive removal into Egyptian custody. It states 89,600 for one large list although the named human categories sum to 101,128; a separate list is non-additive to either figure. Memphis is the king's recorded return point, not a demonstrated final destination for every captive.", "disputes": "The source does not establish post-capture law, governance, labor allocation, economic status, final settlement locations, person-level identities, or the completeness and historical reliability of the very large inscriptional counts.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "A separately dated Year 9 campaign and captive removal into Egyptian custody; Memphis is the king's recorded return point, not a demonstrated destination for every captive.", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-amenhotep-ii-year-9-campaign-captive-removal::SRC-01", "title": "Thesaurus Linguae Aegyptiae, Memphis Stela of Amenhotep II, text ID 7MOMKHXNMNAEDEU7CVLCWQ45OE (complete sentence body and metadata); Christian Langer, 'Forced Labour and Deportations in Ancient Egypt' (complete cited article body); Christian Langer, 'Deportation Policies in Egypt's Late Bronze Age Empire' (complete cited chapter body).", "url": "https://thesaurus-linguae-aegyptiae.de/text/7MOMKHXNMNAEDEU7CVLCWQ45OE/sentences", "locator": "The Thesaurus Linguae Aegyptiae viewer opened and the Year 9 date and second-campaign notice in sentences 50-51, campaign seizure lists, return to Memphis, and final list near sentence 78 matched the locator." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-egypt-amenhotep-ii-year7-year9-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the Year 7 target: Year 9 has a different regnal date, second-campaign label, route, affected communities, return, and captive/booty lists. Shared ruler, army, region, and removal policy do not authorize a two-year composite or combined total.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_009", "post_v5_source_calibration": "Preserve the inscription's stated aggregate of 89,600, the listed human-category sum of 101,128, and the separate sentence-63 list as contradictory or non-additive claims. Do not manufacture a reconciled total. Final destination beyond Egypt, later lives, mortality, return, and labor assignment remain unknown.", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.319469914, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8014672397, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.9910307269, "unknown_bound_high": 93.8443067522 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3108192668, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.7704816701, "unknown_bound_high": 76.6885549897 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.0647509969, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 46.1068782004, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.7196619554, "unknown_bound_high": 72.2747086616 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-pakistani-army-and-auxiliary-displacement-in-east-pakistan-march-december-1971", "name": "Pakistani army and auxiliary violence and displacement in East Pakistan, March–December 1971", "start": 1971, "end": 1971, "date_label": "1971 CE", "operative_date_start": 1971, "operative_date_end": 1971, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "UNHCR begins the mass exodus with the Pakistani army counterinsurgency launched on 25 March 1971 and closes the war sequence with Pakistan's surrender at Dhaka on 16 December. The ICJ body independently describes organized Pakistani military policy and town/village depopulation during the same period. The post-surrender return is an excluded reversal.", "region": "South Asia", "mechanism": "Organized counterinsurgency and repression, killings and other severe violence, destruction of settlements and property, intimidation and fear, and resulting forced internal and cross-border flight.", "agents": [ "The Pakistani army and associated auxiliary forces as the principal coercive agents; Pakistani state and military authorities as policy actors; Bengali resistance and Indian forces belong to the war context but are not substituted for the removal agents in this identity." ], "victims": [ "Bengali civilians in East Pakistan, especially Hindus, Awami League supporters, students, and residents of attacked towns and villages; refugees who fled across the border into India. The later anti-Bihari cohort is excluded." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The reports converge on a March-to-surrender Pakistani campaign and identify targeted civilian cohorts, destroyed places, and India-directed flight. The post-surrender anti-Bihari event has new agents, population, and property outcome.", "disputes": "The locators do not provide a bounded-event estimate of lost work, income, productive assets, or livelihood recovery, and the refugee aggregate cannot identify every perpetrator, victim, route, property loss, or duration of displacement.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Organized military and auxiliary violence, settlement destruction, and forced internal and cross-border flight of Bengali civilians", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-pakistani-army-and-auxiliary-displacement-in-east-pakistan-march-december-1971::SRC-01", "title": "UNHCR, 'The State of the World's Refugees 2000,' chapter 3 (complete official PDF); International Commission of Jurists, 'The Events in East Pakistan, 1971' (complete report PDF).", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/in/sites/en-in/files/legacy-pdf/3ebf9bab0.pdf", "locator": "The UNHCR and International Commission of Jurists PDFs opened at their March-December 1971 chronology, army and auxiliary conduct, refugee exodus, destruction, and surrender passages recorded by the packet." }, { "id": "prospective-pakistani-army-and-auxiliary-displacement-in-east-pakistan-march-december-1971::SRC-02", "title": "UNHCR, 'The State of the World's Refugees 2000,' chapter 3 (complete official PDF); International Commission of Jurists, 'The Events in East Pakistan, 1971' (complete report PDF).", "url": "https://www.icj.org/wp-content/uploads/1972/06/Bangladesh-events-East-Pakistan-1971-thematic-report-1972-eng.pdf", "locator": "The UNHCR and International Commission of Jurists PDFs opened at their March-December 1971 chronology, army and auxiliary conduct, refugee exodus, destruction, and surrender passages recorded by the packet." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "asia-bangladesh-war-displacement-1971" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the post-surrender anti-Bihari target: this unit precedes the 16 December surrender, has Pakistani military and auxiliary agents, primarily Bengali/Hindu affected cohorts, and outward flight toward India. It also excludes the December 1971–March 1972 Bengali/Hindu mass return, which is a direction-reversing outcome rather than a removal target.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_010", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.0109781254, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.362854022, "unknown_bound_high": 93.4353889176 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.4178181601, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7132850011, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0043034355, "unknown_bound_high": 34.6758033271 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9256914734, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 7.4308526592 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 48.1864454478, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4791232358, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.0872456634, "unknown_bound_high": 75.174922086 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.1729272391, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.805466382, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.6071397965, "unknown_bound_high": 59.0605015947 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-post-surrender-anti-bihari-displacement-and-dispossession", "name": "Post-surrender anti-Bihari killing, displacement, property seizure, and camp confinement in Bangladesh", "start": 1971, "end": 1971, "date_label": "from 1971 CE", "operative_date_start": 1971, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "UNHCR places the trigger immediately after Pakistan's mid-December 1971 surrender, when the Bihari community faced retaliatory violence and property seizure. The same section documents a prolonged camp and citizenship aftermath but supplies no single defensible terminal year for the displacement/dispossession identity, so the end year remains UNKNOWN.", "region": "South Asia", "mechanism": "Post-surrender retaliatory killing and intimidation, seizure of homes and property, forced displacement and concentration in camps, followed by prolonged restrictions and unresolved citizenship or statelessness.", "agents": [ "Bengali nationalist forces and civilians involved in the immediate retaliatory violence and seizure; successor Bangladesh authorities and institutions governing the later camp and citizenship setting. The sources do not justify treating all conduct as one centrally directed campaign." ], "victims": [ "Biharis and other Urdu-speaking non-Bengali residents associated with or perceived as aligned with Pakistan, including people killed, dispossessed, displaced into camps, or left with unresolved citizenship; Bengalis and Hindus returning from India are excluded." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "UNHCR directly supports a post-surrender population-specific removal and property-loss sequence, while the ICJ report prevents an unsupported single-command attribution. Later agreed transfers and Bengali returns are not counted as the initiating event.", "disputes": "The opened locators do not separately quantify business, employment, wage, or livelihood losses, and they do not provide a complete perpetrator roster, property ledger, victim count, movement chronology, or uniform endpoint for the affected population.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Retaliatory killing and intimidation, seizure of homes and property, camp concentration, and prolonged territorial displacement of Biharis", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-post-surrender-anti-bihari-displacement-and-dispossession::SRC-01", "title": "UNHCR, 'The State of the World's Refugees 2000,' chapter 3 (complete official PDF); International Commission of Jurists, 'The Events in East Pakistan, 1971' (complete report PDF).", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/in/sites/en-in/files/legacy-pdf/3ebf9bab0.pdf", "locator": "The UNHCR PDF opened at its post-surrender Bihari retaliation, property seizure, camp, repatriation, and citizenship passages, while the ICJ PDF opened at its distinction between organized army policy and Bengali reprisal violence." }, { "id": "prospective-post-surrender-anti-bihari-displacement-and-dispossession::SRC-02", "title": "UNHCR, 'The State of the World's Refugees 2000,' chapter 3 (complete official PDF); International Commission of Jurists, 'The Events in East Pakistan, 1971' (complete report PDF).", "url": "https://www.icj.org/wp-content/uploads/1972/06/Bangladesh-events-East-Pakistan-1971-thematic-report-1972-eng.pdf", "locator": "The UNHCR PDF opened at its post-surrender Bihari retaliation, property seizure, camp, repatriation, and citizenship passages, while the ICJ PDF opened at its distinction between organized army policy and Bengali reprisal violence." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "asia-bangladesh-war-displacement-1971" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the March–December Pakistani-army target: the surrender changes the operative agents, targeted cohort, direction, property outcome, and institutional setting. The Bengali/Hindu return from India is separately excluded as an outcome reversal, and later agreed transfers to Pakistan are downstream responses rather than the initiating anti-Bihari event.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_010", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 40.5378485461, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8095732357, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.8183572158, "unknown_bound_high": 51.8610336458 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.452520887, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6349301058, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 7.9064804039, "unknown_bound_high": 44.4134698267 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9256914734, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 7.4308526592 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 40.1426956857, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2513364074, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.0893209168, "unknown_bound_high": 84.9556801773 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 49.7533769449, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.2512179646, "unknown_bound_high": 73.48853214 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 61.0513673901, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5695295399, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.7705571811, "unknown_bound_high": 77.8176031892 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-japanese-occupied-hong-kong-forced-repatriation-and-depopulation-1941-1945", "name": "Japanese occupation-government forced repatriation and depopulation of Hong Kong, December 1941–August 1945", "start": 1941, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1941–1945 CE", "operative_date_start": 1941, "operative_date_end": 1945, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Lopes fixes formal Japanese occupation to December 1941, and the Academy body states that repatriation began soon after occupation, hardened by mid-1942, continued through later certificate and roundup measures, and left Hong Kong at roughly 600,000 people by the August 1945 surrender. The year fields therefore bound the occupation program without assigning uncited day-level endpoints.", "region": "East Asia", "mechanism": "An occupation depopulation policy using initial inducements followed by residence documentation, food and livelihood pressure, arbitrary arrest, forced transport and deportation, abandonment, exposure to starvation and disease, and in documented incidents direct killing.", "agents": [ "The Japanese occupation government, Japanese military and police authorities, and the Kempeitai as policy, enforcement, arrest, and deportation agents." ], "victims": [ "Hong Kong residents selected or seized for removal, especially unemployed people, beggars, homeless people, people denied residence certificates, the elderly, sick, and disabled, as well as arbitrarily detained residents and accompanying families." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly establish a finite occupation authority, outward policy, selected resident categories, coercive escalation, routes, and endpoint. Neutral Macau's inward refugee management remains a nonqualifying separate history.", "disputes": "All domains have support at program scale, but the sources do not separate every voluntary departure from forced expulsion, provide a complete route and destination register, enumerate deaths, or document individual housing and property losses.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Occupation-government depopulation using documentation, food and livelihood pressure, arrest, forced transport, deportation, abandonment, and killing", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-japanese-occupied-hong-kong-forced-repatriation-and-depopulation-1941-1945::SRC-01", "title": "Academy of Chinese Studies, 'Forced Repatriation' (complete cited web body); Helena F. S. Lopes, 'The Impact of Refugees in Neutral Hong Kong and Macau, 1937–1945' (complete article PDF).", "url": "https://chiculture.org.hk/en/photo-story/3050", "locator": "The Hong Kong cultural-history page opened at its occupation depopulation policy, forced-deportation methods, and population passages, while the Lopes PDF opened at its December 1941 occupation and early-1942 exodus chronology." }, { "id": "prospective-japanese-occupied-hong-kong-forced-repatriation-and-depopulation-1941-1945::SRC-02", "title": "Academy of Chinese Studies, 'Forced Repatriation' (complete cited web body); Helena F. S. Lopes, 'The Impact of Refugees in Neutral Hong Kong and Macau, 1937–1945' (complete article PDF).", "url": "https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/156856/1/the-impact-of-refugees-in-neutral-hong-kong-and-macau-1937-1945.pdf", "locator": "The Hong Kong cultural-history page opened at its occupation depopulation policy, forced-deportation methods, and population passages, while the Lopes PDF opened at its December 1941 occupation and early-1942 exodus chronology." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "asia-hong-kong-macau-wartime-refugee-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the Macau target: this unit begins with Japanese occupation authority, forces outward movement from Hong Kong, and pursues depopulation through coercion. Macau remained neutral and managed an inward refugee influx under Portuguese authority. Cross-border wartime movement is context, not a shared triggering event.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_012", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.5821142027, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9059301142, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 84.7788554056, "unknown_bound_high": 94.1858439868 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 43.4312081376, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.291652289, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.6668112669, "unknown_bound_high": 83.501582368 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9256914734, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 7.4308526592 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 51.2022354582, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4791232358, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 24.5321807316, "unknown_bound_high": 76.6198571542 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.8742369367, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 78.8428704004 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-english-and-east-india-company-enslaved-labor-colony-on-st-helena-1659-1839", "name": "English and East India Company colonization sustained by enslaved labor on St Helena, 1659–1839 legal closure", "start": 1659, "end": 1839, "date_label": "1659–1839 CE", "operative_date_start": 1659, "operative_date_end": 1839, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Bennett begins the series with the English colony's foundation in 1659 and explains that 1659–1682 African and East Indian 'black servants,' despite nominal limited-service policy, were likely held in permanent enslavement; later pages document expansion and consolidation. The League report states that all remaining enslaved people became free on 1 May 1836 and that the 27 May 1839 ordinance removed legal doubt and declared slavery abolished. Thus 1839 is a legal-closure endpoint, not a claim that enslavement continued unchanged after 1836.", "region": "Atlantic Islands", "mechanism": "Colonial settlement and labor formation through importation, sale and hereditary enslavement, coercive service, restrictive slave law, punishment and violence, and compelled agricultural, domestic, skilled, military, and maritime work, followed by phased emancipation and formal legal abolition.", "agents": [ "English and East India Company directors, governors, colonial officials, private planters, masters, and slave traders as governing, importing, and labor-controlling actors." ], "victims": [ "African, Malagasy, West African, East Indian, and island-born enslaved or putatively indentured people and their descendants, including workers in agriculture, households, trades, fortifications, fisheries, and maritime provisioning." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources connect the 1659 settlement to a continuous island slave and coerced-labor institution ending in phased emancipation and legal abolition. The later Liberated African depot reverses legal purpose and has different agents and cohorts.", "disputes": "All eight domains are supported, but the opened locators do not identify every transported person, voyage, owner, work assignment, landholding, or legal-status transition, and the surviving early evidence is explicitly partial.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Durable English and East India Company colony built through importation, hereditary enslavement, coercive service, and island labor control", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-english-and-east-india-company-enslaved-labor-colony-on-st-helena-1659-1839::SRC-01", "title": "Michael D. Bennett, 'Slavery in Early St Helena, Part Three: The Consolidation of Slavery, 1695–1730' (complete cited PDF, including series introduction); League of Nations, slavery report, annex 20 'St. Helena' (complete cited pages); Andrew Pearson et al., 'Infernal Traffic: Excavation of a Liberated African Graveyard in Rupert's Valley, St Helena' (complete cited introduction body, opened as the following-profile comparator).", "url": "https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/233270/1/Wirebird%2052%20Bennett%20FINAL.pdf", "locator": "The Bennett PDF opened at printed pages 41-48 on colony founding, imports, law, work, violence, resistance and demography, and the League report opened at printed page 119 on the 1818 proclamation and 1836-1839 abolition sequence." }, { "id": "prospective-english-and-east-india-company-enslaved-labor-colony-on-st-helena-1659-1839::SRC-02", "title": "Michael D. Bennett, 'Slavery in Early St Helena, Part Three: The Consolidation of Slavery, 1695–1730' (complete cited PDF, including series introduction); League of Nations, slavery report, annex 20 'St. Helena' (complete cited pages); Andrew Pearson et al., 'Infernal Traffic: Excavation of a Liberated African Graveyard in Rupert's Valley, St Helena' (complete cited introduction body, opened as the following-profile comparator).", "url": "https://deriv.nls.uk/dcn23/1946/8294/194682944.23.pdf", "locator": "The Bennett PDF opened at printed pages 41-48 on colony founding, imports, law, work, violence, resistance and demography, and the League report opened at printed page 119 on the 1818 proclamation and 1836-1839 abolition sequence." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "early modern (1500-1799)", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlantic-st-helena-colonial-population-formation" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the post-1840 Liberated African depot target: this identity concerns English/EIC importation, hereditary status, and labor exploitation ending in emancipation and legal abolition. The later system has Crown, Royal Navy, and Vice-Admiralty agents, Africans removed from intercepted slave ships, an abolition-enforcement purpose, and depot custody. Common island geography does not merge reversed legal purposes or cohorts.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_014", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 48.25640078, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.25640078, "unknown_bound_high": 48.25640078 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 50.0732662768, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8457761225, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.3507729931, "unknown_bound_high": 57.7731607419 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 78.5431650507, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6489732266, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 50.9724112528, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0750885896 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 62.4476705455, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8736309102, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.5562152604, "unknown_bound_high": 67.1931242374 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 40.0608177471, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.805466382, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.2676419314, "unknown_bound_high": 51.7210037297 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 69.1028226915, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8964475778, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 61.9470580219, "unknown_bound_high": 72.3023002404 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-crown-and-royal-navy-liberated-african-depot-on-st-helena-1840-1868", "name": "Crown and Royal Navy slave-trade interception and Liberated African depot system on St Helena, 1840–1868", "start": 1840, "end": 1868, "date_label": "1840–1868 CE", "operative_date_start": 1840, "operative_date_end": 1868, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The cited archaeology introduction uses a broad 1840–1872 project/court label, but Bennett's conclusion dates the St Helena depots to 1840–1868. Pearson's later monograph resolves the operational endpoint: the final Vice-Admiralty judgment occurred on 6 July 1868 and with it the island's involvement in suppression ended. The directly supported active identity is therefore revised to 1840–1868; no 1869–1872 depot activity is inferred from the broader label.", "region": "Atlantic Islands", "mechanism": "Naval interception of slave ships; compulsory transport and landing on St Helena; Vice-Admiralty adjudication and formal liberation; depot confinement, registration, medical treatment, death and burial; and colonial-directed apprenticeship, employment, emigration, or other dispersal of survivors.", "agents": [ "The British Crown and colonial government, Royal Navy West Africa Squadron and other naval personnel, the St Helena Vice-Admiralty court, and depot, medical, burial, and administrative staff." ], "victims": [ "African men, women, and children taken from slave ships intercepted by the Royal Navy and landed on St Helena as 'Liberated Africans,' including people confined or treated in the depots, those who died and were buried there, and survivors later dispersed under colonial control." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources establish a bounded Crown, Navy, and Vice-Admiralty territorial-custody system despite its abolition purpose. It is institutionally and chronologically distinct from the island's prior hereditary slave-labor colony.", "disputes": "The opened passage does not expose the compulsory landing process, Vice-Admiralty adjudication, valley-level sites, treatment and burial practices, or survivors' apprenticeship, employment, and dispersal pathways. Those facts and the unavailable archaeology route remain explicit unknowns.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Compulsory landing and depot custody of Africans removed from intercepted slave ships, followed by colonial-directed apprenticeship, employment, emigration, or dispersal", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-crown-and-royal-navy-liberated-african-depot-on-st-helena-1840-1868::SRC-01", "title": "Michael D. Bennett, 'Slavery in Early St Helena, Part Three' (complete cited PDF); League of Nations slavery report, annex 20 'St. Helena' (complete cited pages, opened as the preceding legal-closure comparator); Andrew Pearson et al., 'Infernal Traffic: Excavation of a Liberated African Graveyard in Rupert's Valley, St Helena' (complete cited introduction body); Andrew Pearson, 'Distant Freedom: St Helena and the Abolition of the Slave Trade, 1840–1872' (targeted authoritative alternative, opened book body on JSTOR).", "url": "https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/233270/1/Wirebird%2052%20Bennett%20FINAL.pdf", "locator": "Bennett's printed page 48 conclusion resolved and contains the cited final-paragraph sentence identifying the Royal Navy suppression role, depot population, and 1840-1868 span." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "atlantic-st-helena-colonial-population-formation" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the 1659–1839 enslaved-labor-colony target: the legal closure precedes this unit, and the later agents, affected cohort, formal abolition purpose, custody regime, and disposition pathways are different. The 1868 endpoint also excludes any unsupported 1869–1872 administrative or memorial tail; a later residual unit would require its own direct evidence.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_014", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 95.676518107, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7407418908, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 70.8716049269, "unknown_bound_high": 96.7974158478 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 11.9633330629, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2776484814, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.3216012572, "unknown_bound_high": 75.5567531189 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 27.8047409518, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.561888167, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.623154927, "unknown_bound_high": 59.4343382281 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 28.1880335374, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8012381456, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.5853277188, "unknown_bound_high": 42.4615131617 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 64.6581500419, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2999234492, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.3924953805, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4001504589 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 25.9800945434, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2548106573, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.6200049665, "unknown_bound_high": 81.1389392396 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-south-ossetia-conflict-displacement-1991-1992", "name": "Georgian and Ossetian displacement during the South Ossetia conflict, 1991-1992", "start": 1991, "end": 1992, "date_label": "1991–1992 CE", "operative_date_start": 1991, "operative_date_end": 1992, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Human Rights Watch places the street fighting that forced tens of thousands from their homes in January 1991 and says military operations continued sporadically until mid-1992. It and IIFFMCG identify the 24 June 1992 Dagomys/Sochi agreement as the ceasefire and institutional break that introduced joint peacekeeping; the year fields therefore bound the mass-conflict displacement phase rather than later non-return.", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Street fighting and sporadic military operations, interethnic hostility and retaliatory attacks, forced flight, and damaged homes and infrastructure; the ceasefire stopped the main fighting but did not itself restore property or complete return.", "agents": [ "Georgian troops and political authorities; South Ossetian forces and authorities; USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs troops in the escalation; perpetrators of retaliatory attacks outside South Ossetia; and, at the terminal break, Russian-Georgian-Ossetian joint peacekeeping authorities." ], "victims": [ "Ethnic Georgian residents displaced from South Ossetia and ethnic Ossetians forced from Tbilisi and the Gori, Borjomi, and Kareli districts, with flight also into North Ossetia; the August 2008 cohorts are excluded." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources identify the two cohorts, directions, territory, and institutional ceasefire boundary. Unresolved return and property claims are aftermath, while the 2008 war begins under a new conflict and peacekeeping breakdown.", "disputes": "The opened passages do not provide settlement-level departure dates, a nonduplicative person roster, a complete account of individual perpetrators, or resolved return and compensation outcomes. The labor and economic effects of this bounded displacement phase are also not exposed.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Interethnic and military violence causing opposite-direction Georgian and Ossetian forced flight and home damage before the June 1992 ceasefire", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-south-ossetia-conflict-displacement-1991-1992::SRC-01", "title": "IIFFMCG, Report, volume I, 'The Conflict in Georgia in August 2008' (complete PDF); IIFFMCG, Report, volume II, chapter 2 (complete PDF); Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, 'Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons in Georgia,' South Ossetia section (complete Refworld body); International Crisis Group, 'South Ossetia: The Burden of Recognition' (complete PDF).", "url": "https://www.mpil.de/files/pdf4/IIFFMCG_Volume_I1.pdf", "locator": "IIFFMCG printed pages 13-14 resolved at PDF pages 14-15, and the Crisis Group population discussion at report page 3 resolved at PDF page 7; both locators concern the first South Ossetia conflict rather than the 2008 war." }, { "id": "prospective-south-ossetia-conflict-displacement-1991-1992::SRC-02", "title": "IIFFMCG, Report, volume I, 'The Conflict in Georgia in August 2008' (complete PDF); IIFFMCG, Report, volume II, chapter 2 (complete PDF); Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, 'Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons in Georgia,' South Ossetia section (complete Refworld body); International Crisis Group, 'South Ossetia: The Burden of Recognition' (complete PDF).", "url": "https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/117221/205%20South%20Ossetia%20-%20The%20Burden%20of%20Recognition.pdf", "locator": "IIFFMCG printed pages 13-14 resolved at PDF pages 14-15, and the Crisis Group population discussion at report page 3 resolved at PDF page 7; both locators concern the first South Ossetia conflict rather than the 2008 war." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "ca-south-ossetia-displacements" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the August 2008 target: this unit closes at the June 1992 ceasefire and new JCC/JPKF conflict-management regime. Later unresolved return and property claims are outcomes of this unit, while the new 2008 war, post-ceasefire destruction, and its separately observed cohorts belong only to the 2008 unit.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_020", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 61.3288206247, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3718386947, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.8044286082, "unknown_bound_high": 85.6205591388 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 6.6074166657, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7386445307, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 4.8805321822, "unknown_bound_high": 31.0160791126 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 31.8046487548, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 64.0183010755 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 50.6883255616, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8219600229, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.6637772369, "unknown_bound_high": 59.4677749518 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-august-2008-south-ossetia-conflict-and-immediate-aftermath-displacement", "name": "August 2008 South Ossetia war, conflict flight, and post-ceasefire forced displacement and destruction", "start": 2008, "end": 2008, "date_label": "2008 CE", "operative_date_start": 2008, "operative_date_end": 2008, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "IIFFMCG fixes the large-scale armed-conflict onset to the night of 7-8 August 2008, the ceasefire to 12 August, and its general military review endpoint to 8 September. Volume II documents forced displacement and property destruction after the ceasefire, while Crisis Group records South Ossetian return by late August and Georgian flight from Akhalgori in autumn 2008. The year-level endpoint is therefore 2008; continuing non-return is an outcome, and no false last-act day is supplied.", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Five days of interstate and intrastate combat, shelling and general insecurity, evacuation and flight, followed by intimidation, beatings and threats, looting, burning or bulldozing of homes and villages, forced displacement after the ceasefire, and conditions preventing return.", "agents": [ "Georgian armed forces; Russian armed forces; South Ossetian regular and irregular forces, militias, volunteers, and armed individuals; Georgian and South Ossetian authorities involved in evacuation, security, and return conditions; civilians fleeing combat or targeted acts." ], "victims": [ "South Ossetian civilians who fled mainly toward North Ossetia and mostly returned quickly; ethnic Georgian residents of villages around Tskhinvali, the adjacent buffer zone, and Akhalgori who fled toward undisputed Georgian territory and often could not return; other civilians displaced by combat and insecurity." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources distinguish conflict escape from documented post-ceasefire coercion and show materially different Georgian and South Ossetian return outcomes. Earlier IDPs and the 1992 institutional settlement remain outside this event.", "disputes": "The opened record does not reconcile the reported displacement totals, assign every act to a specific perpetrator, supply a final date for all post-ceasefire coercion, or resolve person-level return and property outcomes. Labor and economy constructs remain unsupported.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "War flight followed by intimidation, looting, home destruction, forced displacement after the ceasefire, and blocked return", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-august-2008-south-ossetia-conflict-and-immediate-aftermath-displacement::SRC-01", "title": "IIFFMCG, Report, volume I, 'The Conflict in Georgia in August 2008' (complete PDF); IIFFMCG, Report, volume II, chapter 7 section D (complete PDF); Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, 'Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons in Georgia,' South Ossetia section (complete Refworld body, opened as the 1991-1992 comparator); International Crisis Group, 'South Ossetia: The Burden of Recognition' (complete PDF).", "url": "https://www.mpil.de/files/pdf4/IIFFMCG_Volume_I1.pdf", "locator": "IIFFMCG printed pages 26-28 resolved at PDF pages 27-29 and contain the cited five-day hostilities, post-ceasefire violations, forced displacement, village destruction, non-return, actors, and affected territory." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "ca-south-ossetia-displacements" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the 1991-1992 target: the 2008 unit begins with a newly constituted Georgian-Russian and Georgian-South Ossetian war and includes its immediate post-ceasefire coercion. Earlier IDPs, their claims, and the 1992 peacekeeping settlement remain in the prior unit; the two 2008 directions of flight remain explicit and are not collapsed into one permanent-displacement count.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_020", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 67.6423332427, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4306557154, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.1305574166, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0649858727 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 6.8016353401, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6329186742, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 4.3048820216, "unknown_bound_high": 41.013014606 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 45.2019955588, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.8497869031, "unknown_bound_high": 71.0871010785 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 19.2358592503, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4359732637, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.3863203368, "unknown_bound_high": 64.7889939698 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-istanbul-pogrom-1955", "name": "Organized anti-Greek pogrom in Istanbul, 6-7 September 1955", "start": 1955, "end": 1955, "date_label": "1955 CE", "operative_date_start": 1955, "operative_date_end": 1955, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Helsinki Watch directly dates the extensive, well-organized anti-Greek riots to 6-7 September 1955. The same background section distinguishes the next major action as beginning in March 1964, so the one-year fields describe the pogrom itself rather than the community's later departure or property-loss history.", "region": "Europe / Middle East", "mechanism": "Coordinated mob violence, assault, widespread sacking and looting, burning, vandalism and desecration of homes, businesses, schools, churches, monasteries, and cemeteries, accompanied by police nonintervention and followed by substantial emigration.", "agents": [ "Organized rioters and looters; Turkish police reported standing by or encouraging the mob; Prime Minister Adnan Menderes and other government actors whom a later Turkish court found had ordered the Thessaloniki bombing used to incite and justify anti-Greek violence; the Istanbul Greek community as the targeted group." ], "victims": [ "Greek residents of Istanbul and their communal institutions, including people killed or injured and owners, occupants, congregants, pupils, and staff connected to Greek homes, shops, churches, monasteries, cemeteries, and schools; Imbros and Tenedos residents are excluded." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The report directly identifies the exact two-day episode, targeted community, facilitating actors, property and communal destruction, and departure effect. The later administrative expulsion and the island histories are separate.", "disputes": "The source itself warns that exact numbers were never established, and its casualty, damage, monetary-loss, and post-pogrom departure figures are reported or approximate rather than a reconciled person- or property-level record. Those quantities must remain bounded and uncertain.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Organized anti-Greek violence and coordinated destruction of homes, businesses, religious sites, schools, and cemeteries followed by substantial emigration", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-istanbul-pogrom-1955::SRC-01", "title": "Helsinki Watch/Human Rights Watch, 'Denying Human Rights and Ethnic Identity: The Greeks of Turkey' (complete PDF, including the Background and Imbros and Tenedos sections).", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/TURKEY923.PDF", "locator": "The Helsinki Watch locator resolved at PDF pages 12-14, corresponding to report pages 8-10, and contains the exact 6-7 September 1955 dates, Istanbul scope, destruction account, responsible or facilitating actors, and subsequent departure statement." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-istanbul-greek-pogrom-expulsions" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the 1964 Istanbul target: the 1955 unit is a two-day organized pogrom using mob violence and physical destruction, while the 1964 unit is a government citizenship, residence-permit, expulsion, and asset-control program. Imbros and Tenedos remain outside both identities because the same source gives them a distinct legal geography and longer sequence.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_027", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 65.9837834646, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.653445752, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 43.1168230037, "unknown_bound_high": 77.772247807 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 11.1240552707, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8764510442, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.7496898575, "unknown_bound_high": 22.104585439 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 28.8946389481, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7711000092, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 22.2806563592, "unknown_bound_high": 45.1706554375 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 32.6366305273, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.865400598, "unknown_bound_high": 40.4206067217 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2905197955, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.948020452 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-istanbul-expulsion-and-asset-measures-1964", "name": "Turkish expulsion of Greek nationals from Istanbul and 1964 asset restrictions", "start": 1964, "end": 1964, "date_label": "1964 CE", "operative_date_start": 1964, "operative_date_end": 1964, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Helsinki Watch dates the start of expulsions to 16 March 1964, a further residence-permit phase to after September 1964, and both cited asset decrees to 1964. The 1989 lifting of the property-sale ban is a later legal outcome, not an extension of the initiating expulsion-and-asset action in the year fields.", "region": "Europe / Middle East", "mechanism": "Summary expulsion on hours of notice with strict baggage and cash limits, nonrenewal of residence permits, seizure or freezing of real property and bank accounts under Ministerial Decree No. 6/3807/1964, and prohibition on acquiring real property under Decree No. 3706/1964, producing further pressured departure.", "agents": [ "The Turkish government and its expulsion, residence-permit, and asset-control authorities; government spokesperson Mumtaz Soysal; Greek nationals subjected to the measures and Istanbul Greeks who departed under the resulting pressure." ], "victims": [ "Istanbul Greeks holding Greek citizenship, including Turkish-born people with little or no prior connection to Greece, who were expelled or denied residence renewal; related Turkish nationals of Greek descent who left under fear and pressure are a distinct associated cohort, not recorded as legally expelled." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source establishes a distinct state program selected by citizenship and residence status, with exact onset and administrative property mechanisms. It neither duplicates the 1955 pogrom nor extends into Imbros and Tenedos.", "disputes": "The reported totals are not a person-level roster and do not resolve citizenship, household, or Istanbul-residence overlap. Decree-by-decree enforcement dates, individual property outcomes, and the relationship between 1964 departure and the later 1989 repeal remain explicit fact-level gaps.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Summary expulsion and residence nonrenewal coupled to real-property and bank-asset restrictions and pressured departure", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-istanbul-expulsion-and-asset-measures-1964::SRC-01", "title": "Helsinki Watch/Human Rights Watch, 'Denying Human Rights and Ethnic Identity: The Greeks of Turkey' (complete PDF, including the Background and Imbros and Tenedos sections).", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/TURKEY923.PDF", "locator": "The Helsinki Watch locator resolved at PDF pages 14-15, corresponding to report pages 10-11, and directly exposes the 16 March 1964 onset, later residence-permit phase, removal conditions, asset restrictions, and citizenship distinction." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-istanbul-greek-pogrom-expulsions" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the 1955 pogrom: the government action begins nine years later and selects Greek nationals through citizenship and residence status, couples removal to asset restrictions, and uses administrative decrees rather than a two-day destructive riot. Imbros and Tenedos remain a separate longer legal-territorial sequence.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_027", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.6808055102, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6808055102, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6808055102 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.7260344942, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8820517642, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.5070917455, "unknown_bound_high": 58.3019153244 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 13.0061985298, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.0061985298, "unknown_bound_high": 13.0061985298 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2905197955, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.948020452 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-isle-of-man-enemy-alien-internment-1914-1919", "name": "British civilian enemy-alien internment in Douglas and Knockaloe, Isle of Man, 1914-1919", "start": 1914, "end": 1919, "date_label": "1914–1919 CE", "operative_date_start": 1914, "operative_date_end": 1919, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Manx National Heritage dates the first civilian enemy-alien arrivals at requisitioned Cunningham's camp to September 1914, the Douglas journals through February 1919, release of all Douglas internees and return to holiday use by summer 1919, and the overall island internment period to 1914-1919. Exact closure dates for every sub-camp are not supplied, so the fields remain year-level.", "region": "Western Europe", "mechanism": "Wartime classification and transport, requisition of civilian premises, barbed-wire detention in all-male camps, internal segregation into ordinary, privilege, and Jewish sections at Douglas, transfer or expansion into Knockaloe, and release and civilian restoration after the armistice.", "agents": [ "British wartime detention and requisitioning authorities; Isle of Man camp administrators and guards, including Douglas commandant Colonel Henry William Madoc; civilian enemy aliens transported to and confined in the island camps." ], "victims": [ "German and Austrian civilian men classified as enemy aliens, encompassing varied class and religious groups in Douglas and Knockaloe; military prisoners of war mentioned in the archive entry are not silently merged into this civilian target." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly connect the 1914 decision to island transport, requisitioned premises, barbed-wire confinement, and 1919 release. The 1940 system was a new arrest decision, population, and camp geography rather than continuous detention.", "disputes": "The entry does not provide exact closure and release dates for every Knockaloe sub-camp, a person-level civilian-versus-prisoner-of-war crosswalk, or a reconciled unique total across transfers. Internal camp work is described generally and cannot support more detailed labor anchors.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Wartime classification, compelled transport, and territorial confinement of German and Austrian civilian men in Isle of Man camps", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-isle-of-man-enemy-alien-internment-1914-1919::SRC-01", "title": "Manx National Heritage, 'Diaries, journals, memoirs' (complete PDF); 'Second World War internment manuscript resources' (complete PDF, later-system comparator); 'Life on the Home Front during the Second World War—Teachers’ Notes' (complete PDF, later-system comparator); 'Living with the Wire: Civilian Internment in the Isle of Man during the two World Wars' (complete product-description body).", "url": "https://manxnationalheritage.im/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/LibraryResource-diaries-journals-memoirs.pdf", "locator": "Manx National Heritage PDF page 40 resolved exactly to catalogue entry MS 06465 and supplies the 1914-1919 Douglas records, September 1914 arrivals, Knockaloe expansion, armistice, and 1919 release and restoration statements." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "europe-isle-man-enemy-alien-internment" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the 1940-1945 target: the First World War unit begins with a 1914 requisition, uses Douglas and Knockaloe as an all-male German/Austrian civilian system, and closes with 1919 releases and civilian reuse. The 1940 system is a new mass arrest, new requisitioned premises, and a broader mixed-sex and multinational population.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_030", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.8340968415, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 91.8340968415, "unknown_bound_high": 91.8340968415 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 38.3084306772, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7645911422, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 29.2902867674, "unknown_bound_high": 52.8311725472 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 25.1032782578, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.1032782578, "unknown_bound_high": 25.1032782578 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.2849488576, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.2849488576, "unknown_bound_high": 43.2849488576 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 47.1107322125, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.1107322125, "unknown_bound_high": 47.1107322125 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 2.5888105546, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.5888105546, "unknown_bound_high": 2.5888105546 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-isle-of-man-enemy-alien-internment-1940-1945", "name": "British mass civilian internment in requisitioned Isle of Man camps, 1940-1945", "start": 1940, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1940–1945 CE", "operative_date_start": 1940, "operative_date_end": 1945, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Manx National Heritage states that the British government moved to arrest many foreign-born nationals in May 1940 and describes enforced stays on the Isle of Man of up to five years. Its archive catalogue repeatedly bounds the camp records to 1940-1945 and the teaching resource uses the end of the war as the terminal reference; exact camp-by-camp closure dates remain unresolved.", "region": "Western Europe", "mechanism": "Government mass arrest based on nationality or credentials, transport to the island, rapid requisition of hotels and boarding houses, enclosure behind barbed wire, separation into male, female, and married camps, registration and movement control, and individual release through tribunals or at the war-period endpoint.", "agents": [ "The British government as arresting and internment authority; alien tribunals that reviewed and released some internees; Isle of Man camp commandants, guards, and administrators; civilian internees confined under wartime nationality classifications." ], "victims": [ "German, Austrian, and Italian men and women and other classified enemy-nationality civilians, including many refugees from Nazi persecution; children under sixteen were not formally interned but could remain with their mothers, and must stay distinct from the internee count." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources establish a new 1940 territorial detention system with broader nationalities, refugees, women, couples, and tribunal release. Shared sovereign and island do not merge it with the closed First World War program.", "disputes": "The opened pages do not give camp-by-camp opening and closure dates, nationality-by-camp counts, a complete internee roster, or person-level release dates. The five-year statement is an outer wartime bound and cannot be assigned to every internee.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Mass nationality-based arrest, compelled island transport, and confinement of men and women in requisitioned camps", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-isle-of-man-enemy-alien-internment-1940-1945::SRC-01", "title": "Manx National Heritage, 'Diaries, journals, memoirs' (complete PDF, First World War comparator); 'Second World War internment manuscript resources' (complete PDF); 'Life on the Home Front during the Second World War—Teachers’ Notes' (complete PDF); 'Living with the Wire: Civilian Internment in the Isle of Man during the two World Wars' (complete product-description body).", "url": "https://manxnationalheritage.im/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Life-on-the-Home-Front-during-the-Second-World-War-Teachers-Notes.pdf", "locator": "Manx National Heritage PDF pages 28 and 30 resolved to the cited Civilian Internment and Rushen Camp sections, with the May 1940 arrest and arrival chronology, island camp geography, tribunal releases, and end-of-war framing." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "europe-isle-man-enemy-alien-internment" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the 1914-1919 target: the Second World War unit restarts in May 1940 under a new mass-arrest decision, requisitions a different hotel and boarding-house geography, includes women, married couples, refugees, and additional nationalities, and uses tribunal release. Shared sovereign and confinement mechanism do not merge the systems.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_030", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 95.0366809937, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 95.0366809937, "unknown_bound_high": 95.0366809937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 38.3084306772, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7645911422, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 29.2902867674, "unknown_bound_high": 52.8311725472 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 41.2253035255, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.37897004, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.623154927, "unknown_bound_high": 77.7261509248 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 49.4241213634, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8012381456, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.6004913477, "unknown_bound_high": 59.4766767906 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 29.5238006069, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.5238006069, "unknown_bound_high": 29.5238006069 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 2.5888105546, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.5888105546, "unknown_bound_high": 2.5888105546 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 25 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-alba-colony-and-aequian-land-sequence", "name": "Roman conquest of Aequian towns, Alba Fucens colonization, and renewed Aequian suppression, 304-302 BCE", "start": -304, "end": -302, "date_label": "304–302 BCE", "operative_date_start": -304, "operative_date_end": -302, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Livy book 9 chapter 45 and the Avezzano municipal history date the mass campaign against Aequian towns to 304 BCE; Livy book 10 chapter 1 and the chronology alternative place the 6,000-person Alba colony in 303 BCE and renewed Aequian war under succeeding consuls in 302 BCE. The municipal narrative instead places renewed suppression late in 303 BCE, so the -304 to -302 fields are an honest envelope, not a claim of uninterrupted operations.", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "Roman declaration of war, rapid capture of thirty-one fortified Aequian towns with widespread sack and burning, military seizure of territory, settlement of 6,000 colonists at Alba as a fortified Roman stronghold, and defeat of the surviving Aequian attempt to take the colony.", "agents": [ "The Roman Republic and Senate; consuls Publius Sempronius Sophus and Publius Sulpicius Saverrio in the Aequian campaign; the 6,000 Alba colonists; surviving Aequi who resisted the colony; dictator Gaius Junius Bubulcus and master of the horse Marcus Titinius in the renewed suppression." ], "victims": [ "Aequian communities in the captured towns and territory selected for Alba Fucens, including residents exposed to sack and burning and surviving landholders displaced or subordinated by the colony; incoming Alba colonists are the beneficiary/settler cohort." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Livy directly joins the Aequian campaign, Alba land settlement, and immediate resistance sequence. Marsic resistance and Carseoli colonization concern different peoples and land and remain a separate child.", "disputes": "The chapters do not identify most captured towns, affected-person totals, parcel boundaries, pre-colony occupant outcomes, or the economic and labor organization of the colony. The broad ancient chronology does not resolve the packet's 303-versus-302 renewed-suppression uncertainty more finely.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Conquest and destruction of Aequian towns followed by seizure of territory, settlement of 6,000 colonists at Alba, and suppression of resistance", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-alba-colony-and-aequian-land-sequence::SRC-01", "title": "Livy, 'From the Founding of the City,' book 9 chapter 45 and book 10 chapter 1 (complete cited bodies); Comune di Avezzano, 'Safini, Marsi ed Equi' (complete cited page); Livius.org, 'Livy, Periochae 6-10' (one targeted chronology alternative; review stopped after the year issue was resolved as an envelope).", "url": "https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/From_the_Founding_of_the_City/Book_9#45", "locator": "The recorded Livy chapter 9.45 and 10.1 anchors resolved and contain the successive Aequian war, capture of thirty-one walled towns, sack and burning, settlement of 6,000 colonists at Alba in Aequian country, renewed hostilities, and Roman suppression." }, { "id": "prospective-alba-colony-and-aequian-land-sequence::SRC-02", "title": "Livy, 'From the Founding of the City,' book 9 chapter 45 and book 10 chapter 1 (complete cited bodies); Comune di Avezzano, 'Safini, Marsi ed Equi' (complete cited page); Livius.org, 'Livy, Periochae 6-10' (one targeted chronology alternative; review stopped after the year issue was resolved as an envelope).", "url": "https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/From_the_Founding_of_the_City/Book_10#1", "locator": "The recorded Livy chapter 9.45 and 10.1 anchors resolved and contain the successive Aequian war, capture of thirty-one walled towns, sack and burning, settlement of 6,000 colonists at Alba in Aequian country, renewed hostilities, and Roman suppression." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-roman-aequian-alba-carseoli-colonization-304-298" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the Carseoli/Marsic target: this unit is limited to the 304 Aequian-town campaign, the 303 Alba colony on Aequian land, and the ensuing Aequian response. It excludes the Marsi, Carseoli settlement attempt, Marsic towns and land cession, and 298 Carseoli settlement even where later land administration benefited Alba.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_040", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.1631803396, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7409412487, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 66.8056194237, "unknown_bound_high": 92.711494558 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 14.19857981, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3031910289, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.3048820216, "unknown_bound_high": 73.9857791311 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.144622213, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 78.7752196635, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7557185522, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 59.5318949549, "unknown_bound_high": 83.960039733 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 24.30547208, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 77.6379035723 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-carseoli-colony-and-marsic-land-sequence", "name": "Roman Carseoli settlement attempt, war against the Marsi, land cession, and colony establishment, 302-298 BCE", "start": -302, "end": -298, "date_label": "302–298 BCE", "operative_date_start": -302, "operative_date_end": -298, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Livy book 10 chapter 3 and the Avezzano municipal history place the blocked dispatch of 4,000 colonists, Roman campaign against the Marsi, and compelled land cession in 302 BCE; the chronology alternative independently assigns the Marsic surrender to 302 BCE. Livy book 10 chapter 13 and the municipal page place actual settlement of the Carseoli colony in 298 BCE.", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "Dispatch of 4,000 colonists, armed prevention of their occupation by the Marsi, a Roman dictatorial campaign and battle, capture of three fortified Marsic towns, compelled surrender of part of Marsic territory and renewal of the treaty, followed by delayed settlement of the Carseoli colony in 298 BCE.", "agents": [ "The Roman Republic and the dispatched body of 4,000 colonists; the Marsi who prevented occupation; dictator Marcus Valerius Maximus and master of the horse Marcus Aemilius Paulus; Roman forces that captured Marsic towns and imposed the land cession; later colonial authorities and settlers at Carseoli." ], "victims": [ "Marsi who resisted the Carseoli occupation and the communities of Milionia, Plestina, and Fresilia subjected to capture and territorial penalty; holders in the Aequicoli/Carseoli territory occupied by the later colony; incoming colonists are the beneficiary/settler cohort." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly identify the Marsic actors, Carseoli tract, blocked occupation, territorial penalty, and later settlement. Parcel-level uncertainty does not merge it with the earlier Aequian and Alba sequence.", "disputes": "The opened text does not identify the ceded parcels, establish that every ceded Marsic tract became Carseoli colonial land, enumerate affected residents, or describe existing Aequicoli occupants. Labor, production, and economic arrangements are not exposed.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Attempted colonial occupation, Marsic war and town capture, compelled land cession, and delayed Carseoli settlement", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-carseoli-colony-and-marsic-land-sequence::SRC-01", "title": "Livy, 'From the Founding of the City,' book 10 chapters 3 and 13, with chapter 1 opened as the Alba comparator (complete cited body); Livy book 9 chapter 45 (complete cited comparator); Comune di Avezzano, 'Safini, Marsi ed Equi' (complete cited page); Livius.org, 'Livy, Periochae 6-10' (one targeted chronology alternative; review stopped after resolving the 302 campaign year).", "url": "https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/From_the_Founding_of_the_City/Book_10#3", "locator": "The recorded Livy 10.3 and 10.13 anchors resolved; chapter 3 contains the 4,000-person Carseoli dispatch, Marsic prevention, battle, captured towns, land surrender, and treaty renewal, while chapter 13 records the later colony settlement in Aequicoli country." }, { "id": "prospective-carseoli-colony-and-marsic-land-sequence::SRC-02", "title": "Livy, 'From the Founding of the City,' book 10 chapters 3 and 13, with chapter 1 opened as the Alba comparator (complete cited body); Livy book 9 chapter 45 (complete cited comparator); Comune di Avezzano, 'Safini, Marsi ed Equi' (complete cited page); Livius.org, 'Livy, Periochae 6-10' (one targeted chronology alternative; review stopped after resolving the 302 campaign year).", "url": "https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/From_the_Founding_of_the_City/Book_10#13", "locator": "The recorded Livy 10.3 and 10.13 anchors resolved; chapter 3 contains the 4,000-person Carseoli dispatch, Marsic prevention, battle, captured towns, land surrender, and treaty renewal, while chapter 13 records the later colony settlement in Aequicoli country." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-roman-aequian-alba-carseoli-colonization-304-298" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-unit overlap with the Alba/Aequian target: this unit starts with Marsic resistance to Carseoli in 302, follows the Marsic campaign and land penalty, and ends with Carseoli settlement in 298. Any later assignment of parts of ceded Marsic territory to Alba or Sora is recorded as a 302 outcome here and does not reopen or expand the Aequian/Alba identity.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_040", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.7194637062, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7811530822, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 72.4280948529, "unknown_bound_high": 94.3127866341 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 37.5135248847, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5669532492, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.2684148229, "unknown_bound_high": 64.5730899013 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1361710022, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.2128251614, "unknown_bound_high": 96.5957249462 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 24.30547208, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 77.6379035723 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-sipontum-colony-on-former-arpian-land-194-bce", "name": "Roman-citizen colony at Sipontum on former Arpian land, 194 BCE", "start": -194, "end": -194, "date_label": "194 BCE", "operative_date_start": -194, "operative_date_end": -194, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Livy 34.45.3 directly records the Sipontum colony during the 194 BCE annual sequence, and the Princeton Encyclopedia of Classical Sites entry independently identifies the Roman colony as founded in 194 BCE. The year fields identify the recorded establishment, not an inferred duration of settlement.", "region": "Southern Europe", "mechanism": "Roman state establishment of a citizen colony through named commissioners on land identified as formerly Arpian. The opened sources do not specify the legal acquisition process, allotment terms, colonist count, or removal of prior occupants.", "agents": [ "The Roman state; the three colonial commissioners Decimus Junius Brutus, Marcus Baebius Tamphilus, and Marcus Helvius; and the incoming Roman-citizen colonists. Livy does not identify Arpian transferors, occupants, or resisters." ], "victims": [ "Incoming Roman citizens are the directly identified settler cohort. The source identifies the land as formerly belonging to Arpi but does not identify prior or contemporary Arpian landholders or residents, their number, or whether any person was displaced." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Livy supplies the state colonial act, former-land provenance, place, and commissioners. Prior occupants and acquisition mechanism remain unknown, but the land reallocation is direct; the later commission is not treated as completed settlement.", "disputes": "Neither opened passage states how the land entered Roman control, whether prior occupants were removed, how many colonists settled, what parcels were allotted, or what labor and economic arrangements followed. Later prosperity and renewed settlement are outside the bounded 194 BCE establishment and are not imported.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Roman-citizen colonial establishment on land directly identified as formerly Arpian", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-sipontum-colony-on-former-arpian-land-194-bce::SRC-01", "title": "Livy, From the Founding of the City, book 34 chapter 45 and book 39 chapter 23 (complete cited chapter bodies); Princeton Encyclopedia of Classical Sites, 'Sipontum' (one targeted authoritative site-and-date control).", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.02.0144%3Abook%3D34%3Achapter%3D45", "locator": "Livy 34.45.3 resolved to the sentence establishing a Roman-citizen colony at Sipontum on land formerly belonging to Arpi and naming its commissioners; the Princeton entry independently resolved the establishment date to 194 BCE." }, { "id": "prospective-sipontum-colony-on-former-arpian-land-194-bce::SRC-02", "title": "Livy, From the Founding of the City, book 34 chapter 45 and book 39 chapter 23 (complete cited chapter bodies); Princeton Encyclopedia of Classical Sites, 'Sipontum' (one targeted authoritative site-and-date control).", "url": "https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus:text:1999.04.0006:entry=sipontum", "locator": "Livy 34.45.3 resolved to the sentence establishing a Roman-citizen colony at Sipontum on land formerly belonging to Arpi and naming its commissioners; the Princeton entry independently resolved the establishment date to 194 BCE." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-roman-sipontum-arpian-land-colony-194-186" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "The 194 establishment is not duplicated by the 186 abandonment-and-enrollment commission: the latter is a later state response with different commissioners. Both concern Sipontum, however, and the sources do not resolve whether the 186 act was a legal continuation, restart, or supplementation of the same colonial land unit. The Buxentum comparison and any phase relationship remain for main overlap adjudication; no relationship is authorized here.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_041", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 76.6303665456, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7409412487, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 56.7785994733, "unknown_bound_high": 82.6844746076 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.0679768566, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 93.2023143444 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.144622213, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1096713043, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 89.0328695747 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8165098753, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 18.3490124655 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 32.5865374963, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2203504162, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 85.1454154811 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-suez-era-jewish-expulsion-and-departure-from-egypt-1956-1957", "name": "Suez-war detention, expulsion, sequestration, citizenship pressure, and mass Jewish departure from Egypt, 1956–1957", "start": 1956, "end": 1957, "date_label": "1956–1957 CE", "operative_date_start": 1956, "operative_date_end": 1957, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Beinin begins the coercive phase after the British-French-Israeli attack of 29 October 1956, records 14,102 Jewish departures from 22 November 1956 through 15 March 1957, and identifies the 27 April 1957 rescission of the sequestration proclamation and partial property return. The 1957 endpoint bounds the war-linked mass phase and immediate partial reversal, not all slower departures through 1967.", "region": "Egypt and the Mediterranean", "mechanism": "Wartime detention; formal expulsion of British and French nationals and individual expulsion orders against other Jews; business and property sequestration; dismissal or loss of employment; restrictive nationality interpretation and pressure to renounce status; informal pressure to leave; and rapid departure with limited ability to retain assets, followed by partial rescission and selective property return in 1957.", "agents": [ "President Gamal Abdel Nasser's government; Egyptian security, detention, expulsion, nationality, employment, and sequestration authorities; British, French, and Israeli forces as the war trigger rather than the administrators of Egyptian measures; and affected Jewish individuals, firms, diplomatic intermediaries, and receiving states." ], "victims": [ "Egyptian Jews of Egyptian, stateless, British, French, and other national statuses: approximately 1,000 detainees, many Jewish members of the approximately 13,000 British and French nationals expelled, approximately 500 Jews of other statuses expelled, owners and workers connected to roughly 460 sequestered Jewish businesses, and 14,102 Jewish departures in the recorded peak interval. These categories overlap and must not be added." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly profiles a bounded state coercion program under a new regime and war and records a partial 1957 reversal. Overlapping legal-status and departure categories remain nonadditive rather than being forced into one exact count.", "disputes": "The detainee, nationality, expellee, sequestered-business, job-loss, and departure categories overlap and cannot be summed. The source does not provide a person-level legal-status, property-action, destination, and departure crosswalk or resolve slower post-1957 departures.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Suez-war detention, formal expulsion, property and business sequestration, citizenship pressure, and concentrated departure", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-suez-era-jewish-expulsion-and-departure-from-egypt-1956-1957::SRC-01", "title": "Joel Beinin, The Dispersion of Egyptian Jewry, chapter 3, especially 'Denouement' (complete cited chapter body), with 'The 1948 Arab-Israeli War' and 'Emigration/Aliyah' opened as comparators; chapter 4 cited 1948 section (complete cited section); chapter 8 URL opened but its body was unavailable behind a human-verification interstitial and supplied no facts.", "url": "https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/view?brand=ucpress&chunk.id=d0e1455&doc.view=content&docId=ft2290045n&toc.depth=1", "locator": "Beinin's Denouement passage resolved and contains the cited 29 October 1956 trigger, detention, expulsion, sequestration, nationality pressure, 22 November-15 March departure interval, and 27 April 1957 rescission." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-jewish-departure-egypt" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "The 1956–1957 phase is distinct from 1948–1951 because it arose under a different regime and war and used broader expulsion, nationality, employment, and sequestration measures after an intervening normalization. It is distinct from the 1967 arrest-and-release chain, although the same shrinking community and some individuals may recur. Slower departures after mid-1957 are aftermath absent evidence of a continuous program; person-level overlap and later repeat movement remain unresolved. No relationship is authorized.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_046", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.6808055102, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6808055102, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6808055102 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 52.7260344942, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8820517642, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 46.5070917455, "unknown_bound_high": 58.3019153244 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 48.1864454478, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.1864454478, "unknown_bound_high": 48.1864454478 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 11.1155373343, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8638289978, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.601923476, "unknown_bound_high": 23.2190236911 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3795605923, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 62.0439407719 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-egyptian-jewish-wartime-detention-and-compelled-departure-1967-1971", "name": "Egyptian Jewish wartime detention, staged release, and compelled departure, 1967–1971", "start": 1967, "end": 1971, "date_label": "1967–1971 CE", "operative_date_start": 1967, "operative_date_end": 1971, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Mualem's archival study places Nasser's arrest order in the initial hours of the June 1967 war and reports approximately 500 detainees. Foreign citizens were released and left during 1967–1968; releases of stateless and Egyptian citizens resumed in April 1969; all stateless prisoners were freed from late 1969 into early 1970; and the remaining approximately 80 Egyptian-citizen men were released with their families under renunciation-and-no-return conditions, with all prisoners freed by March 1971.", "region": "Egypt and the Mediterranean", "mechanism": "A presidentially ordered wartime arrest wave; harsh detention and use of prisoners as hostages or bargaining leverage; citizenship-tiered and intermittently suspended release; international and quiet diplomatic negotiation; small-group exit; and, for the final Egyptian-citizen cohort, release conditioned on renouncing Egyptian citizenship and not returning, with family emigration.", "agents": [ "President Gamal Abdel Nasser and Egyptian military, security, foreign-ministry, and interior-ministry authorities; the arrested Egyptian Jewish men and their families; Israeli diplomatic officials; and French, Spanish, Italian, Greek, International Committee of the Red Cross, and UN High Commissioner for Refugees intermediaries involved in staged release and emigration." ], "victims": [ "Approximately 500 Egyptian Jewish men arrested from a remaining community of about 2,500, differentiated in release policy by foreign, stateless, or Egyptian citizenship, plus family members whose departure accompanied releases. Approximately 80 Egyptian-citizen men of military-conscription age formed the final documented category. Exact roster, category overlap, and destination totals are unresolved." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The archival study joins the June 1967 arrest to staged releases and exits through March 1971, making calendar 1967 too narrow. Earlier Suez measures and prewar migration remain separate despite possible person-level recurrence.", "disputes": "The source does not expose a complete detainee or family roster, prison assignments, individual release and departure dates, destinations, treatment histories, property consequences, or overlap with earlier migration phases. Labor and economic outcomes remain unsupported.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Presidential wartime arrest, harsh detention, citizenship-conditioned release, compelled exit, and family departure through 1971", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-egyptian-jewish-wartime-detention-and-compelled-departure-1967-1971::SRC-01", "title": "Joel Beinin, The Dispersion of Egyptian Jewry, chapter 3 and the cited chapter 4 section (complete opened bodies supplying the pre-1967 population sequence and comparators); Beinin chapter 8 URL opened but its body was unavailable behind a human-verification interstitial; Yitzhak Mualem, 'Quiet Diplomacy: The Exodus of Egyptian Jews between the Six-Day War and the War of Attrition' (one targeted additional scholarly source, complete article body and archival notes).", "url": "https://jcfa.org/article/quiet-diplomacy-the-exodus-of-egyptian-jews-between-the-six-day-war-and-the-war-of-attrition/", "locator": "The Mualem article resolved at the cited After the War and Quiet Campaign sections and contains the June 1967 arrest scale, citizenship-ordered releases, April 1969 resumption, late-1969 to early-1970 stateless releases, renunciation condition, and March 1971 completion." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-jewish-departure-egypt" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "The June 1967 arrest order is a new wartime trigger distinct from the 1956–1957 Suez measures and from slower intervening migration. The release-and-departure chain extends through March 1971, so restricting the event to calendar 1967 would sever its documented outcome. Families and surviving community members may overlap earlier cohorts at the person level, but no roster permits linkage; prewar departures and unrelated prisoners are excluded. Preserve that uncertainty and authorize no relationship.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_046", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.895449456, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.895449456, "unknown_bound_high": 90.895449456 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 36.5283374795, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8307718247, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.3467135805, "unknown_bound_high": 47.2695311121 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 51.8482611021, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 33.7256558984, "unknown_bound_high": 68.6788150179 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 41.2239669368, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.2239669368, "unknown_bound_high": 41.2239669368 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 38.4717185006, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6168880115, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 23.7327419266, "unknown_bound_high": 62.0439407719 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-jewish-departure-following-the-1955-pogrom-1955-1957", "name": "Jewish emigration from Turkey following the September 6–7 pogrom, 1955–1957", "start": 1955, "end": 1957, "date_label": "1955–1957 CE", "operative_date_start": 1955, "operative_date_end": 1957, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Atlas fixes the triggering pogrom on 6–7 September 1955 and records 1,710 Turkish Jewish immigrants to Israel in 1956 and 1,911 in 1957, compared with 339 in 1955; Toktaş reports the same post-pogrom rise. The boundary includes the 1955 trigger and the two directly observed peak departure years; individual departure dates are unresolved.", "region": "Turkey and Israel", "mechanism": "Pogrom violence, looting, vandalism, threats, and resulting psychological and material pressure produced a surge in inquiries and willingness to emigrate; follow-on anti-Semitic incidents and Israeli immigration outreach accompanied elevated departures to Israel in 1956–1957.", "agents": [ "Mobs attacking non-Muslim and Jewish property in Istanbul and İzmir; Turkish government, police, and martial-law authorities in the event and response; Turkish Jews deciding whether to leave; and Mapai, Israeli Foreign Ministry, Jewish Agency, and Israeli reception actors responding to increased immigration interest." ], "victims": [ "Turkish Jews affected by the September pogrom and subsequent anti-Semitic incidents, and the Turkish Jewish emigrants arriving in Israel during 1956–1957. The sources do not establish that every person in the annual arrival totals was personally attacked during the pogrom." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Two sources connect the 1955 violence and follow-on incidents to the 1956–1957 departure surge. They do not show that every migrant was directly attacked, so coercion extent remains an uncertainty rather than an exclusion or universal claim.", "disputes": "The annual immigration figures do not prove that every migrant was personally attacked or that the pogrom was each person's sole cause of departure. Individual exposure, departure dates, prior migration history, and repeat-migration overlap remain explicit unknowns.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Pogrom violence, looting, vandalism, threats, and material pressure followed by a bounded surge in Jewish emigration", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-jewish-departure-following-the-1955-pogrom-1955-1957::SRC-01", "title": "Şule Toktaş, 'Turkey's Jews and their Immigration to Israel' (complete article body); Duygu Atlas, 'The Founding of the State of Israel and the Turkish Jews' (complete chapter PDF); Özgür Kaymak, 'The Jewish Community in Modern and Contemporary Turkey' (official Oxford Academic record and complete reproduced chapter body).", "url": "https://iris.unive.it/retrieve/bca9f908-2ae6-45bd-bfe1-c27dbb6faead/TURKISH%20JEWS%20-%20Oktem%20Yosmaoglu.pdf", "locator": "The Atlas chapter locator resolved around printed pages 129-134 and directly contains the 6-7 September 1955 pogrom, Jewish property damage, immediate emigration interest, follow-on threats, and 1956-1957 Israel-arrival totals." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-jewish-departure-turkey" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "The 1955–1957 trigger-and-departure window is temporally disjoint from the 1948–1951 great wave and the 1960–1965 later phase. Person-level overlap remains unresolved because the annual arrival counts do not identify prior emigrants, returnees, or repeat movers; shared population and destination labels do not justify merging the phases.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_048", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 54.3948722676, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5355386676, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.1305574166, "unknown_bound_high": 75.5766906601 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 3.8011673511, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7259592863, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 2.7594927373, "unknown_bound_high": 30.1635641077 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 39.4481556679, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 39.4481556679 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 19.1205283055, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8844479388, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.9111118478, "unknown_bound_high": 28.4663179715 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3795605923, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 62.0439407719 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-palestinian-occupation-and-war-flight-from-kuwait-1990-1991", "name": "Palestinian flight from Kuwait during Iraqi occupation and Gulf War conditions, 1990–1991", "start": 1990, "end": 1991, "date_label": "1990–1991 CE", "operative_date_start": 1990, "operative_date_end": 1991, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Middle East Watch dates the initiating Iraqi invasion to August 1990 and reports that around 180,000 Palestinians left during the occupation to avoid its hardships and the war. The restored Kuwaiti government returned on 26 February 1991, providing the institutional endpoint separating this phase from post-liberation measures; exact departure dates within the occupation are not supplied.", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "Cross-border flight to avoid occupation and war hardships, accompanied in many cases by abandonment of homes and property. Later Kuwaiti refusal to readmit most occupation-era leavers is a return-foreclosure outcome for this cohort, not a second departure mechanism.", "agents": [ "Iraqi occupying forces and the Gulf War belligerents as the authorities and forces creating the occupation and war conditions; Palestinian residents of Kuwait as the moving population; and Jordan and other destinations as receiving jurisdictions. The restored Kuwaiti government is relevant here only to later non-readmission, not as the actor causing the occupation-era departures." ], "victims": [ "Approximately 180,000 Palestinian residents of Kuwait who left during the Iraqi occupation and war, many from long-established households that left homes and accumulated property behind. The sources do not provide a complete person-level or status-group roster for this cohort." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The report separates the occupation-era cohort and movement from the restored government's later expulsion program. Non-readmission is a blocked-return outcome for the first cohort and is not counted as a second departure.", "disputes": "The opened passage does not provide a person-level roster, legal-status breakdown, month-by-month departure series, exact routes or destinations, or a crosswalk with Palestinians remaining after liberation. It does not expose occupation-phase labor and economic details suitable for coding.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Occupation- and war-driven cross-border flight involving abandonment of homes and property and later refusal of readmission", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-palestinian-occupation-and-war-flight-from-kuwait-1990-1991::SRC-01", "title": "Middle East Watch, 'Nowhere to Go: The Tragedy of the Remaining Palestinian Families in Kuwait' (complete report PDF); Middle East Watch, 'World Report 1992 — Kuwait' (complete cited HTML body).", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/reports/1992/WR92/MEW2.htm", "locator": "The Middle East Watch World Report locator resolved and directly distinguishes roughly 180,000 Palestinians leaving during Iraqi occupation and war from the restored Kuwaiti government's post-26 February 1991 deportation and pressure regime." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-kuwait-palestinian-expulsion" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Occupation-era leavers and people subjected to post-liberation non-readmission are substantially the same cohort, so non-readmission must not be counted as a second movement. The proposed post-liberation expulsion unit is limited to Palestinians still in Kuwait after liberation who were deported or pressured to leave. A complete person-level crosswalk is unavailable, so exact disjointness remains unresolved and no counts may be combined.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_049", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 77.5959144334, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3818906856, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.6331569603, "unknown_bound_high": 91.4440884035 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 1.926668573, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.926668573, "unknown_bound_high": 1.926668573 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 56.9247352277, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.9247352277, "unknown_bound_high": 56.9247352277 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 16.7809869001, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 16.7809869001 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3795605923, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 62.0439407719 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-post-liberation-kuwaiti-expulsion-and-residency-pressure", "name": "Post-liberation Kuwaiti expulsion and residency pressure against Palestinians, 1991", "start": 1991, "end": 1991, "date_label": "1991 CE", "operative_date_start": 1991, "operative_date_end": 1991, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Middle East Watch dates the restored government's return to 26 February 1991, records summary expulsions beginning in March, large-scale deportation from June, and continued deportation and pressure through the end of 1991. Foreign-resident re-registration ran to a 31 December deadline, bounding the documented review period to 1991.", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "Arbitrary arrest, detention, abuse, threats, summary administrative deportation, collective pressure on prisoners' families, retroactive employment termination, severance-pay escrow, residence re-registration and permit-expiry pressure, and forced or pressure-induced departure. Non-readmission of occupation-era leavers is retained only as return foreclosure, not as another departure in this unit.", "agents": [ "The restored Kuwaiti government; Ministry of Interior, State Security Investigative Police, Deportation Prison, and other official or closely aligned security forces; government employers and residency authorities; and Palestinian residents and families subjected to the measures." ], "victims": [ "Palestinians who remained in Kuwait after liberation, especially long-term residents, stateless Palestinians holding Egyptian or other travel documents, government employees, detainees, and families pressured to accompany deported relatives. Occupation-era leavers outside Kuwait are excluded from the departure cohort." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources directly establish a new Kuwaiti authority and program affecting Palestinians still present after 26 February 1991. Occupation-era leavers remain outside this cohort, and summary, family, and pressured departures are not added without a roster.", "disputes": "The source does not provide a complete person-level Palestinian roster or nonduplicative counts separating summary deportation, family removal, and pressure-induced departure. Legal status, permit outcome, employment loss, detention, and final destination cannot be linked for each person.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Post-liberation arrest, abuse, administrative deportation, employment termination, residency pressure, and forced or pressure-induced departure", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-post-liberation-kuwaiti-expulsion-and-residency-pressure::SRC-01", "title": "Middle East Watch, 'Nowhere to Go: The Tragedy of the Remaining Palestinian Families in Kuwait' (complete report PDF); Middle East Watch, 'World Report 1992 — Kuwait' (complete cited HTML body).", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/reports/1992/WR92/MEW2.htm", "locator": "The Middle East Watch World Report locator resolved and contains the post-26 February 1991 chronology, March summary expulsions, June large-scale deportations, continued year-end pressure, employment measures, and foreign-resident re-registration deadline." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-kuwait-palestinian-expulsion" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Exclude the approximately 180,000 Palestinians who had already left during occupation and war; Kuwait's later refusal to readmit them is an outcome of that first movement. This target covers only people present in Kuwait after 26 February 1991 who were expelled or pressured to depart. The reports do not provide a complete named roster separating all voluntary, pressure-induced, and forced departures, so person-level overlap and exact counts remain unresolved.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_049", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.6808055102, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 92.6808055102, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6808055102 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 26.6013091421, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5398464085, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.3606212026, "unknown_bound_high": 60.3759803496 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 23.2190236911, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.2190236911, "unknown_bound_high": 23.2190236911 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3795605923, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 62.0439407719 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-1967-palestinian-cross-border-war-exodus", "name": "Palestinian west-to-east cross-border war exodus and restricted return, June–August 1967", "start": 1967, "end": 1967, "date_label": "1967 CE", "operative_date_start": 1967, "operative_date_end": 1967, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "UNRWA reports that during June, July, and August 1967 about 200,000 persons, including at least 100,000 registered refugees, crossed the River Jordan from west to east. Israeli return rules covered West Bank residents who crossed between 5 June and 4 July; applications were issued on 12 August and the principal return arrangements ended on 31 August. All directly bounded movement and return dates fall in 1967.", "region": "Middle East and North Africa", "mechanism": "Wartime flight and displacement during and immediately after the June hostilities, west-to-east cross-border movement, and a short, document- and security-screened return process under which only a small fraction returned. UNRWA states that the extent of forced departure was disputed for some local village removals; no forced share is inferred for the cross-border cohort.", "agents": [ "Israeli armed forces and the Government of Israel as belligerent, occupying, and return-permit authorities; Palestinian West Bank residents and refugees as the displaced population; and the Government of Jordan, International Committee of the Red Cross, and UNRWA as receiving, relief, application, and return-assistance actors." ], "victims": [ "Approximately 200,000 people who crossed from the West Bank to the East Bank of Jordan during the 1967 hostilities, including at least 100,000 UNRWA-registered refugees. Palestinians displaced only within the occupied territory and communities displaced by later settlement, demolition, or settler-violence processes are outside this target." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "UNRWA directly establishes the cross-border cohort, direction, interval, and limited return while preserving disagreement over forced departure in some localities. Later localized internal displacement mechanisms are different events and their counts are excluded.", "disputes": "UNRWA explicitly reports that the forced share of some local removals was disputed and could not be verified. Application and return totals differ by reporting side, and the record lacks a complete origin-destination roster, person-level return linkage, and forced-versus-voluntary allocation for the cross-border cohort.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "June–August 1967 west-to-east war exodus from the West Bank followed by a restrictive, document-screened return process", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-1967-palestinian-cross-border-war-exodus::SRC-01", "title": "UNRWA Commissioner-General, report A/6713 (complete official PDF); Mélanie Jacques, 'Case study: Israeli settlements, the Separation Wall and displacement of civilians in the Occupied Palestinian Territory' (complete Cambridge chapter body); OHCHR, A/HRC/61/70 (complete official PDF); OHCHR, A/HRC/58/73 (complete official PDF).", "url": "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/720304/files/A_6713-EN.pdf", "locator": "UNRWA paragraphs 30 and 33-36 resolved at printed pages 11-13, PDF pages 17-19, and contain the June-August west-to-east crossing estimate, camp reception, return eligibility rules, 12 August forms, 31 August closure, and realized return figures." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-palestinian-displacement-1967" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "The 1967 west-to-east crossing is event-level distinct from later localized internal displacement through settlements, outposts, land appropriation, evictions, demolitions, movement restrictions, military operations, and settler violence. UNRWA paragraph 30 also discusses local village displacement, but only the River Jordan crossing cohort belongs here. Person-level overlap remains possible for returnees or later-affected individuals and cannot be resolved without a roster; do not merge counts or treat later internal movement as continuation of the 1967 exodus.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_051", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.2069107251, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7608082058, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 71.6733907255, "unknown_bound_high": 95.5925701426 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 23.8509902938, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6020974821, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 14.3606212026, "unknown_bound_high": 54.1508729881 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 32.4437104802, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5018029194, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.2803486359, "unknown_bound_high": 66.1000566936 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 36.0298581849, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2682468569, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.6648962139, "unknown_bound_high": 82.8402105205 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-lao-hmong-detention-and-forced-return-2006-2009", "name": "Detention and forced return of the 158 recognized Nong Khai Lao Hmong refugees, 17 November 2006–28 December 2009", "start": 2006, "end": 2009, "date_label": "2006–2009 CE", "operative_date_start": 2006, "operative_date_end": 2009, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The 17 November 2009 UNHCR briefing dates the Bangkok roundup to 17 November 2006 and the transfer to Nong Khai to 8 December 2006. The cited 28 December 2009 report records the deportation operation, and UNHCR's 29 December follow-up confirms that the Nong Khai recognized-refugee group was returned on 28 December 2009.", "region": "Southeast Asia", "mechanism": "Roundup for deportation, transfer to immigration custody, detention for about three years in two cells, denial of available third-country resettlement, and forced cross-border return.", "agents": [ "The recognized Lao Hmong refugees; Thai immigration, security and government authorities; the Lao People's Democratic Republic as receiving state; UNHCR; and the United States, Australia, Canada and the Netherlands as states offering resettlement." ], "victims": [ "A specifically enumerated Nong Khai cohort: originally 147 recognized refugees, increasing to 158 because babies were born in detention; almost 90 of the 158 were children by December 2009." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Contemporaneous sources track the same enumerated cohort from roundup through detention and forced return. The wider two-site return total and earlier refugee caseloads are expressly excluded rather than added.", "disputes": "The opened record does not provide individual identities, exact birth dates for children born in detention, person-level resettlement offers, post-return locations, protection outcomes in Laos, or any labor and economic evidence. The wider approximately 4,000-person operation cannot be added to this cohort.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Roundup, three-year immigration detention, denial of available resettlement, and forced cross-border return of a specific 158-person Hmong cohort", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-lao-hmong-detention-and-forced-return-2006-2009::SRC-01", "title": "UN General Assembly, Report of UNHCR, A/31/12 (1976), chapter IV paragraphs 172–176 and 209–213; UNHCR, EC/46/SC/CRP.44, paragraph 5 and paragraphs 185–190; UNHCR, Thailand: UNHCR calls for end of three-year detention of Lao Hmong, first four body paragraphs; UNHCR, Deportation of Lao Hmong must stop, cited body paragraphs; UNHCR, UN refugee agency appeals for access to returned Lao Hmong, first two body paragraphs (one targeted authoritative follow-up used to resolve whether the threatened return occurred).", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/us/news/briefing-notes/thailand-unhcr-calls-end-three-year-detention-lao-hmong", "locator": "The UNHCR briefing's first four body paragraphs and dated cohort details resolved, and the 29 December follow-up's first two substantive paragraphs resolved the terminal fact that the recognized Nong Khai group was deported on Monday, 28 December 2009." }, { "id": "prospective-lao-hmong-detention-and-forced-return-2006-2009::SRC-02", "title": "UN General Assembly, Report of UNHCR, A/31/12 (1976), chapter IV paragraphs 172–176 and 209–213; UNHCR, EC/46/SC/CRP.44, paragraph 5 and paragraphs 185–190; UNHCR, Thailand: UNHCR calls for end of three-year detention of Lao Hmong, first four body paragraphs; UNHCR, Deportation of Lao Hmong must stop, cited body paragraphs; UNHCR, UN refugee agency appeals for access to returned Lao Hmong, first two body paragraphs (one targeted authoritative follow-up used to resolve whether the threatened return occurred).", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/us/news/news-releases/un-refugee-agency-appeals-access-returned-lao-hmong", "locator": "The UNHCR briefing's first four body paragraphs and dated cohort details resolved, and the 29 December follow-up's first two substantive paragraphs resolved the terminal fact that the recognized Nong Khai group was deported on Monday, 28 December 2009." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-lao-hmong-flight-and-repatriation" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "This boundary is limited to the recognized 158-person Nong Khai cohort. That group was a separately enumerated subset of the roughly 4,000 people returned from two sites on 28 December, so 158 must not be added to the two-site total. The Ban Huay Nam Khao cohort, the 1975 flight aggregate and the 1980–1996 mixed return programme are excluded.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_057", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.4808748018, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8274114925, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.8293846128, "unknown_bound_high": 97.0882353677 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3018642998, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 69.8135700205 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 80.1238145571, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.1238145571, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 35.9297299788, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7372735304, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 26.4900388696, "unknown_bound_high": 52.7626858246 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3795605923, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 62.0439407719 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-first-liberian-civil-war-displacement", "name": "First Liberian civil-war displacement, December 1989–1997", "start": 1989, "end": 1997, "date_label": "1989–1997 CE", "operative_date_start": 1989, "operative_date_end": 1997, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Liberia TRC dates the NPFL uprising to 24 December 1989, while UNHCR describes the war as erupting in December 1989. The July 1997 election and installation of the elected government in August 1997 mark the cited transition to large-scale repatriation and reintegration; no exact final-displacement day is claimed.", "region": "West Africa", "mechanism": "Insurgent attack and government counterinsurgency followed by multi-faction war, killings and massacres, ethnic targeting, burning and looting, producing internal displacement and cross-border flight; the 1997 political transition enabled return and reintegration.", "agents": [ "The NPFL; the Doe government and Armed Forces of Liberia; later first-war armed factions; ECOMOG in the conflict and transition; Liberian civilians; neighbouring asylum states; UNHCR and reintegration partners." ], "victims": [ "Liberian civilians displaced internally and across borders. UNHCR reports about 700,000 refugees from a pre-war population of 2.4 million and an unknown internally displaced population; the TRC separately describes mass refugee and internal displacement. Those categories are not combined into a fabricated total." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources converge on a December 1989 onset and 1997 political transition that enabled return. The 1999 incidents remain an unassigned precursor and the LURD–MODEL war begins under a new actor configuration.", "disputes": "The sources do not yield a unique internally displaced total, a person-level refugee and returnee crosswalk, an exact final-displacement date, or settlement-level sequencing across factions. Labor and economy constructs are not sufficiently exposed for supported coding.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Multi-faction war, ethnic targeting, massacres, burning and looting causing internal and cross-border civilian displacement", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-first-liberian-civil-war-displacement::SRC-01", "title": "Liberia Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Consolidated Final Report, volume II, executive-summary finding 11 and sections 7.1–7.3.1 and 9.1; UNHCR, Global Report 1999: Liberian Repatriation and Reintegration Operation, printed pages 111–112; Human Rights Watch, Back to the Brink, page 2 and pages 7–8. No additional source was needed.", "url": "https://archives.liberiapastandpresent.org/TRC/trc-of-liberia-final-report-volume-ii.pdf", "locator": "The Liberia TRC locator resolved to the 24 December 1989 NPFL attack, first-war displacement and refugee passages, and 1997 election transition; Human Rights Watch report page 2 independently resolved the seven-year first war ending with the 1997 elections and the separate July 2000 incursion." }, { "id": "prospective-first-liberian-civil-war-displacement::SRC-02", "title": "Liberia Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Consolidated Final Report, volume II, executive-summary finding 11 and sections 7.1–7.3.1 and 9.1; UNHCR, Global Report 1999: Liberian Repatriation and Reintegration Operation, printed pages 111–112; Human Rights Watch, Back to the Brink, page 2 and pages 7–8. No additional source was needed.", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/reports/pdfs/l/liberia/liberia0402.pdf", "locator": "The Liberia TRC locator resolved to the 24 December 1989 NPFL attack, first-war displacement and refugee passages, and 1997 election transition; Human Rights Watch report page 2 independently resolved the seven-year first war ending with the 1997 elections and the separate July 2000 incursion." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-liberian-civil-wars-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "This unit ends with the 1997 war-to-election transition. The 1999 Lofa incidents are excluded as a post-war precursor, and the LURD incursion directly dated to July 2000 begins the renewed-war unit. Personnel continuity and causal linkage do not merge the two actor configurations, and repatriation totals are not added to displacement stocks.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_058", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 56.5273944155, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3718386947, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.0190725539, "unknown_bound_high": 83.8352030845 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.8663744095, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.8663744095, "unknown_bound_high": 10.8663744095 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.2849488576, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 28.1554918086, "unknown_bound_high": 63.1086509281 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.9518198708, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.8835486404, "unknown_bound_high": 74.1208628157 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 12.9900472717, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3795605923, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.9305100362, "unknown_bound_high": 66.9744508081 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-renewed-lurd-model-war-displacement", "name": "LURD–MODEL war displacement in Liberia, July 2000–2003", "start": 2000, "end": 2003, "date_label": "2000–2003 CE", "operative_date_start": 2000, "operative_date_end": 2003, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Human Rights Watch directly dates the renewed rebel incursion to July 2000. The TRC assigns the LURD–MODEL insurgency to 2000–2003, identifies MODEL's entry in 2003 and records the 18 June 2003 ceasefire. The exact July onset day and last displacement day are unresolved, so only month-level onset and year-level endpoint are claimed.", "region": "West Africa", "mechanism": "Cross-border rebel incursion and expanding state-rebel warfare, shelling and attacks on civilians, killings, rape, burning, looting, forced recruitment and labour, and obstruction of flight, producing repeated internal and cross-border displacement.", "agents": [ "Charles Taylor's government, Armed Forces of Liberia and aligned militias; LURD; MODEL from 2003; Liberian civilians; neighbouring asylum states and humanitarian actors." ], "victims": [ "Civilians displaced by the renewed war in northwestern, central and southeastern Liberia and into neighbouring states, including women and children exposed to killings, rape, forced recruitment, forced labour, looting and attacks. The opened locators do not yield a unique nonduplicated displacement total." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The reports resolve a July 2000 renewed-war onset, changed fronts and actors, and a 2003 endpoint. Historical continuity with the first war does not erase the 1997 transition or justify folding the wars together.", "disputes": "The exact July onset day, the status of 1999 precursor incidents, nonduplicative episode-level displacement totals, and the exact last displacement date are unresolved. Abuses and movements cannot be assigned person by person, and the ceasefire did not immediately end every reported violation.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "LURD and later MODEL warfare, attacks on civilians, burning, looting, forced recruitment and labor, and repeated internal and cross-border displacement", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-renewed-lurd-model-war-displacement::SRC-01", "title": "Liberia Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Consolidated Final Report, volume II, executive-summary finding 11 and sections 7.1–7.3.1 and 9.1; UNHCR, Global Report 1999: Liberian Repatriation and Reintegration Operation, printed pages 111–112; Human Rights Watch, Back to the Brink, page 2 and pages 7–8. No additional source was needed.", "url": "https://archives.liberiapastandpresent.org/TRC/trc-of-liberia-final-report-volume-ii.pdf", "locator": "Human Rights Watch report pages 2 and 7-8 resolved the July 2000 LURD incursion, changed actor structure, civilian flight, abuses, and forced labor; the TRC's 7.3.1 locator resolved MODEL's 2003 front and the 18 June 2003 ceasefire." }, { "id": "prospective-renewed-lurd-model-war-displacement::SRC-02", "title": "Liberia Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Consolidated Final Report, volume II, executive-summary finding 11 and sections 7.1–7.3.1 and 9.1; UNHCR, Global Report 1999: Liberian Repatriation and Reintegration Operation, printed pages 111–112; Human Rights Watch, Back to the Brink, page 2 and pages 7–8. No additional source was needed.", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/reports/pdfs/l/liberia/liberia0402.pdf", "locator": "Human Rights Watch report pages 2 and 7-8 resolved the July 2000 LURD incursion, changed actor structure, civilian flight, abuses, and forced labor; the TRC's 7.3.1 locator resolved MODEL's 2003 front and the 18 June 2003 ceasefire." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-liberian-civil-wars-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "The 1997 election and return transition close the first-war unit. The 1999 Lofa incidents remain an unassigned precursor because the cited bodies do not establish them as the July 2000 LURD incursion; they are not backfilled into either war. The renewed unit begins in July 2000, with MODEL entering its separate front in 2003.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_058", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 56.5273944155, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3718386947, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.0190725539, "unknown_bound_high": 83.8352030845 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 6.8072007552, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.8072007552, "unknown_bound_high": 6.8072007552 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 51.1694720586, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.746265241, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 38.1859983957, "unknown_bound_high": 63.5594742996 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 55.2722611955, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 35.5499532331, "unknown_bound_high": 71.2320612848 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3795605923, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 62.0439407719 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-nicaraguan-revolutionary-exile-and-flight-through-july-1979", "name": "Nicaraguan refugee flight during the anti-Somoza insurrection, September 1978–19 July 1979", "start": 1978, "end": 1979, "date_label": "1978–1979 CE", "operative_date_start": 1978, "operative_date_end": 1979, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "UNHCR states that the principal Nicaraguan refugee caseload fled following the September 1978 fighting and that the July 1979 regime change enabled large-scale repatriation. The IACHR chronology records Somoza's departure on 17 July, National Guard surrender and the FSLN entry into Managua on 19 July, and installation of the Junta on 20 July; the outward-flight unit is therefore closed at 19 July 1979.", "region": "Central America", "mechanism": "Armed insurrection, National Guard repression, indiscriminate bombardment and attacks on civilians produced cross-border flight; the change of government then enabled large-scale voluntary repatriation, which is treated as the terminal disposition of this cohort.", "agents": [ "The Somoza government and National Guard; the FSLN; Nicaraguan civilian residents and opponents who fled; Costa Rica and Honduras as principal asylum states; UNHCR as assistance and repatriation actor." ], "victims": [ "Approximately 100,000 Nicaraguan refugees assisted during the first part of 1979, the great majority of whom repatriated in the latter half of the year. The figure is a refugee-program aggregate and is not treated as a count of every civilian harmed or displaced internally." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The UNHCR and IACHR sources bound one pre-transition flight cohort and its large subsequent return. Post-change departures and Contra-war displacement have different triggers and remain outside this event.", "disputes": "The sources do not enumerate every origin community, household, property left behind, conflict cause for each departure, livelihood loss, or person-level return history.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "National Guard repression, bombardment, and attacks on civilians causing cross-border flight before the July 1979 regime change", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-nicaraguan-revolutionary-exile-and-flight-through-july-1979::SRC-01", "title": "IACHR, Report on the Situation of Human Rights in Nicaragua (1981), introduction and July 1979 chronology; UNHCR A/35/12, chapter III.A paragraphs 173 and 179–180, printed pages 31–32; UNHCR, The State of the World's Refugees 2000, chapter 5, printed pages 121–122, 127 and 130–131; IACHR, Report on the Situation of a Segment of the Nicaraguan Population of Miskito Origin, part 2 section A and part 3 paragraphs 3–4. No additional source was needed.", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/in/sites/en-in/files/legacy-pdf/4cc039db9.pdf", "locator": "UNHCR A/35/12, chapter III.A, paragraphs 173 and 179-180, printed pp. 31-32/PDF pp. 38-39" }, { "id": "prospective-nicaraguan-revolutionary-exile-and-flight-through-july-1979::SRC-02", "title": "IACHR, Report on the Situation of Human Rights in Nicaragua (1981), introduction and July 1979 chronology; UNHCR A/35/12, chapter III.A paragraphs 173 and 179–180, printed pages 31–32; UNHCR, The State of the World's Refugees 2000, chapter 5, printed pages 121–122, 127 and 130–131; IACHR, Report on the Situation of a Segment of the Nicaraguan Population of Miskito Origin, part 2 section A and part 3 paragraphs 3–4. No additional source was needed.", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/us/sites/en-us/files/legacy-pdf/3ebf9baf0.pdf", "locator": "The State of the World's Refugees 2000, chapter 5, printed pp. 121-122/PDF pp. 16-17" }, { "id": "prospective-nicaraguan-revolutionary-exile-and-flight-through-july-1979::SRC-03", "title": "IACHR, Report on the Situation of Human Rights in Nicaragua (1981), introduction and July 1979 chronology; UNHCR A/35/12, chapter III.A paragraphs 173 and 179–180, printed pages 31–32; UNHCR, The State of the World's Refugees 2000, chapter 5, printed pages 121–122, 127 and 130–131; IACHR, Report on the Situation of a Segment of the Nicaraguan Population of Miskito Origin, part 2 section A and part 3 paragraphs 3–4. No additional source was needed.", "url": "https://cidh.oas.org/countryrep/nicaragua81sp/introduccion.htm", "locator": "Introduction, sections A paragraphs 2-3 and C chronology for 17-20 July 1979" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-nicaragua-revolution-contra-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "This unit contains flight generated before the 19 July 1979 regime replacement and treats the majority return afterward as its terminal disposition. New post-change departures and the 1981-onward Contra-war refugee caseload are excluded. The 1981–1983 Miskito relocation has no temporal overlap with this unit.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_060", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 83.506935342, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.601226668, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 50.2065964887, "unknown_bound_high": 90.0839296909 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 4.2171113562, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9137385335, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.8533371461, "unknown_bound_high": 12.4794837991 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 39.4481556679, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 39.4481556679 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.1496762811, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.2803486359, "unknown_bound_high": 77.6552628173 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-miskito-compulsory-relocation-and-land-loss", "name": "Documented Sandinista compulsory relocation and associated Miskito land and property loss, December 1981–September 1983", "start": 1981, "end": 1983, "date_label": "1981–1983 CE", "operative_date_start": 1981, "operative_date_end": 1983, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The IACHR dates the government decision to relocate 42 Coco River villages to 28 December 1981 and the movement of about 8,500 people to 1 January–20 February 1982. Its reviewed event window runs through September 1983 and also identifies a second approximately 4,000-person relocation, but does not resolve that second movement to exact dates.", "region": "Central America", "mechanism": "Compulsory evacuation and relocation on foot, by truck and in some operations by air; destruction of houses and crops, loss of livestock and belongings, separation of towns and families, disruption of community authority and severance from ancestral land.", "agents": [ "The Government of National Reconstruction, Sandinista military and administrative authorities; Miskito residents and community structures in the Coco and Bokay river areas; IACHR as investigating body." ], "victims": [ "Approximately 8,500 Miskito residents of 42 Coco River villages moved to five Tasba Pri settlements, plus a separately reported approximately 4,000 residents from the Coco and Bokay areas moved to settlements in Jinotega. The two source aggregates are preserved separately and not assumed disjoint for a fabricated combined unique total." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The IACHR directly defines the decision, villages, receiving settlements, transport, and territorial consequences. The broader Contra refugee target remains non-counting until its possible overlap with this bounded state program is resolved.", "disputes": "The opened passage does not resolve exact dates for the separately reported second relocation, overlap between reported population aggregates, later flight by relocatees, a person-level roster, or the persistence and restitution of land and property losses; those facts remain explicit unknowns.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Sandinista compulsory village evacuation and relocation with house and crop destruction, property loss, family separation, and severance from ancestral land", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-miskito-compulsory-relocation-and-land-loss::SRC-01", "title": "IACHR, Report on the Situation of Human Rights in Nicaragua (1981), introduction and July 1979 chronology; UNHCR A/35/12, chapter III.A paragraphs 173 and 179–180, printed pages 31–32; UNHCR, The State of the World's Refugees 2000, chapter 5, printed pages 121–122, 127 and 130–131; IACHR, Report on the Situation of a Segment of the Nicaraguan Population of Miskito Origin, part 2 section A and part 3 paragraphs 3–4, including part 2 section A paragraphs 1, 6 and 7. No additional source was needed.", "url": "https://cidh.oas.org/countryrep/miskitoeng/part3.htm", "locator": "The authorized IACHR page opened successfully, and part 3, section A, paragraphs 3–4 contain the recorded decision date, movement interval, routes, destinations, population estimate, uprooting, family division, and home and livestock losses." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-nicaragua-revolution-contra-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "This is a mechanism-specific internal-relocation and land/property-loss event within the broader Contra-war chronology. It is not automatically additive to the Honduras refugee caseload: the IACHR records that part of the same regional population fled Honduras, and later movement by relocated people is unresolved. Separate event identity is supported, but double counting is prohibited without cohort crosswalk.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_060", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.4661615645, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 94.4661615645, "unknown_bound_high": 94.4661615645 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 18.0631815036, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6883589487, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 12.4339526295, "unknown_bound_high": 43.598057762 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 80.1238145571, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.1238145571, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 57.3849123934, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 36.9087659478, "unknown_bound_high": 72.5908739995 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-second-congo-war-displacement-1998-2003", "name": "Second Congo War internal displacement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, August 1998–June 2003", "start": 1998, "end": 2003, "date_label": "1998–2003 CE", "operative_date_start": 1998, "operative_date_end": 2003, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The OHCHR chronology and full Mapping Report place the Second Congo War's opening in August 1998 and the final reviewed war phase in January 2001–June 2003, ending at the start of the transition on 30 June 2003. OCHA's 2004 appeal records a 3.4 million IDP stock in August 2003; that post-transition stock shows unresolved displacement outcomes and is not used to extend the war-phase endpoint or as a unique-person event count.", "region": "Central Africa", "mechanism": "Internationalized and internal armed conflict; attacks on civilians; massacres, rape, torture, looting and property destruction; forced displacement used in struggles for territorial and resource control; and spontaneous flight from continued fighting and insecurity.", "agents": [ "The Forces armées congolaises and DRC authorities; Zimbabwean, Angolan and Namibian forces fighting alongside them; opposing Rwandan and Ugandan forces; the Rassemblement congolais pour la démocratie, Mouvement de libération du Congo, Mayi-Mayi and other irregular armed groups; and civilian communities subjected to the conflict." ], "victims": [ "Congolese civilians internally displaced by fighting, destabilisation, insecurity and attacks, especially women, children and older people forced from homes, fields and communities. OCHA estimated 3.4 million IDPs in August 2003, but this is a stock with repeat movement and carry-over unresolved, not a nonduplicated event total." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources identify the August 1998–June 2003 war and transition boundary and keep war-era Ituri and Kivu movements inside it. Later actor- and phase-specific eastern DRC events are excluded rather than treated as one 1998-present history.", "disputes": "The opened locators do not provide a nonduplicated displaced-person roster or event total, forced-versus-flight shares, cross-border cohort separation, return timing, or person-level crosswalks to later eastern DRC episodes. Province-wide duration and mechanisms are supported, but those quantities remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Internationalized and internal war involving attacks, property destruction, resource and territorial control, and mass forced civilian displacement", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-second-congo-war-displacement-1998-2003::SRC-01", "title": "OHCHR, 'Democratic Republic of the Congo 1993–2003: UN Mapping Report—What is the DRC Mapping Exercise?' (complete cited fact sheet); United Nations Security Council, S/2024/251 (cited pages and paragraphs); UNHCR, 'Democratic Republic of the Congo. IDPs in Plain Savo' (complete cited body); OHCHR, 'Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1993–2003: Report of the Mapping Exercise' (targeted authoritative alternative); United Nations/OCHA, 'Consolidated Appeals Process 2004: Democratic Republic of the Congo' (targeted authoritative alternative).", "url": "https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/709895/files/DRC_MAPPING_REPORT_FINAL_EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0", "locator": "The OHCHR Mapping Report opened successfully; paragraphs 19–21 identify the August 1998 opening and 30 June 2003 transition boundary, while paragraphs 733–739 verify resource and territorial control, named conflict practices, and forced displacement." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-second-congo-war-eastern-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "The unit excludes the First Congo War before August 1998 and all post-30 June 2003 conflict systems. War-era Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu displacement remains inside this unit; it must not be counted again in the revised post-2018 Ituri, post-March-2022 M23, 2021 ADF or 2023–2024 Ruzizi identities. The August 2003 IDP stock may include unresolved carry-over and cannot be added to later stocks.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_061", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 69.8684152348, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2925455061, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.4396908956, "unknown_bound_high": 91.1851402852 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.6296808246, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8038142223, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.1519170702, "unknown_bound_high": 29.7704948386 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 38.9069804511, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.794580659, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 30.9147341677, "unknown_bound_high": 51.4566682649 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.2193833473, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.2803486359, "unknown_bound_high": 90.5282014717 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 13.0570434772, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4615444095, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0264054219, "unknown_bound_high": 59.8719644689 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-m23-north-kivu-conflict-displacement-from-march-2022", "name": "M23-related North Kivu conflict displacement from March 2022, ongoing at 19 March 2024", "start": 2022, "end": 2022, "date_label": "from 2022 CE", "operative_date_start": 2022, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "UNHCR dates the renewed North Kivu armed-group/government fighting and associated provincial displacement from March 2022, and its January 2023 body directly attributes nearly 521,000 departures to a recent M23 offensive. S/2024/251 documents continuing M23–FARDC hostilities and displacement through its 1 December 2023–19 March 2024 reporting period. No termination is established, so the end year is UNKNOWN.", "region": "Central Africa", "mechanism": "Territorial offensives and repeated ceasefire violations between M23 and FARDC-aligned forces; ground fighting, rockets, mortars, aircraft and drones; loss and reoccupation of positions; forced flight, secondary displacement and concentration in improvised or planned sites near Goma.", "agents": [ "M23 and the Congolese armed forces (FARDC), with FARDC-supported non-State armed groups/Volontaires pour la défense de la patrie, Burundian forces and the Southern African Development Community Mission participating in the 2024 battlefield; MONUSCO as a protection and blocking-position actor; and affected civilians." ], "victims": [ "Civilian residents displaced from Rutshuru, Masisi, Nyiragongo and the wider Sake area toward Goma, surrounding sites and host communities, with some onward movement toward Minova and Kalehe. UNHCR's nearly 521,000 figure is directly M23-attributed; the broader 1.2 million North Kivu figure and the 630,000 site population are not treated as M23-only counts." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "UNHCR and Security Council sources directly attribute a bounded current phase to M23 and distinguish its cohort from broader North Kivu stocks and the 2012–2013 episode. Mixed-cause site populations are not relabelled M23-only.", "disputes": "No termination is established. The opened figures have different referents: the M23-attributed 521,000, the broader North Kivu stock, and mixed-cause site populations cannot be added. Unique-person totals, repeat-movement crosswalks, returns, and allocation of residents affected by other armed groups remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Post-March-2022 M23 territorial offensives and fighting causing forced flight, repeated displacement, and camp concentration around Goma", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-m23-north-kivu-conflict-displacement-from-march-2022::SRC-01", "title": "OHCHR, DRC Mapping Exercise fact sheet (complete cited body); United Nations Security Council, S/2024/251 (cited pages and paragraphs); UNHCR, 'Democratic Republic of the Congo. IDPs in Plain Savo' (complete cited body); UNHCR, '2023: A Moment of Truth for Global Displacement' (first targeted authoritative alternative); UNHCR, 'UNHCR warns of mounting needs in DR Congo as forced displacement continues' (second targeted authoritative alternative).", "url": "https://documents.un.org/api/symbol/access?l=en&s=S%2F2024%2F251&t=pdf", "locator": "All three authorized locators opened. The UNHCR passages verify renewed North Kivu displacement from March 2022 and the nearly 521,000 M23-attributed movement, while S/2024/251 paragraphs 19 and 21–25 and 34–36 verify later belligerents, territorial advance, site concentration, and onward displacement." }, { "id": "prospective-m23-north-kivu-conflict-displacement-from-march-2022::SRC-02", "title": "OHCHR, DRC Mapping Exercise fact sheet (complete cited body); United Nations Security Council, S/2024/251 (cited pages and paragraphs); UNHCR, 'Democratic Republic of the Congo. IDPs in Plain Savo' (complete cited body); UNHCR, '2023: A Moment of Truth for Global Displacement' (first targeted authoritative alternative); UNHCR, 'UNHCR warns of mounting needs in DR Congo as forced displacement continues' (second targeted authoritative alternative).", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/news/briefing-notes/unhcr-warns-mounting-needs-dr-congo-forced-displacement-continues", "locator": "All three authorized locators opened. The UNHCR passages verify renewed North Kivu displacement from March 2022 and the nearly 521,000 M23-attributed movement, while S/2024/251 paragraphs 19 and 21–25 and 34–36 verify later belligerents, territorial advance, site concentration, and onward displacement." }, { "id": "prospective-m23-north-kivu-conflict-displacement-from-march-2022::SRC-03", "title": "OHCHR, DRC Mapping Exercise fact sheet (complete cited body); United Nations Security Council, S/2024/251 (cited pages and paragraphs); UNHCR, 'Democratic Republic of the Congo. IDPs in Plain Savo' (complete cited body); UNHCR, '2023: A Moment of Truth for Global Displacement' (first targeted authoritative alternative); UNHCR, 'UNHCR warns of mounting needs in DR Congo as forced displacement continues' (second targeted authoritative alternative).", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/spotlight/2023/01/2023-a-moment-of-truth-for-global-displacement/", "locator": "All three authorized locators opened. The UNHCR passages verify renewed North Kivu displacement from March 2022 and the nearly 521,000 M23-attributed movement, while S/2024/251 paragraphs 19 and 21–25 and 34–36 verify later belligerents, territorial advance, site concentration, and onward displacement." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-second-congo-war-eastern-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Revise the generic M23 target to the post-March-2022 North Kivu phase; the distinct 2012–2013 M23 episode is not silently merged. Directly M23-attributed movements retain this identity even when people reach Minova or Kalehe. Do not count those arrivals again as local South Kivu conflict displacement, and do not add broader North Kivu or Goma-site stocks to the M23-attributed figure.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_061", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 52.2459039787, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.522757759, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.3119516833, "unknown_bound_high": 75.0361757786 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 4.5626118207, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8949271594, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.0832052363, "unknown_bound_high": 14.5904892928 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.2952944126, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2465868986, "unknown_bound_high": 74.62150108 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-adf-attack-displacement-beni-and-nearby-ituri-january-march-2021", "name": "ADF attack-driven displacement from Beni Territory and nearby Ituri villages, January–March 2021", "start": 2021, "end": 2021, "date_label": "2021 CE", "operative_date_start": 2021, "operative_date_end": 2021, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "UNHCR's 19 March 2021 briefing states that, since January and in less than three months, attacks blamed on ADF displaced an estimated 40,000 people. The end date is the source's observation cutoff, not a claim that ADF activity ended; S/2024/251 documents later ADF operations that require a separate phase decision.", "region": "Central Africa", "mechanism": "ADF-attributed raids on 25 villages, killings and injuries, burning of houses, kidnapping and threats linked to retaliation and resource-seeking, producing rapid internal flight with few belongings.", "agents": [ "The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) as the armed group to which the attacks were attributed; civilian residents of attacked villages; and military forces whose operations formed reported retaliation context. FARDC and UPDF appear only in the later 2024 comparator and are not assigned as displacement-causing actors in this 2021 unit." ], "victims": [ "An estimated 40,000 civilians displaced from Beni Territory in North Kivu and nearby villages in Ituri, with the majority of the newly displaced described as women and children. They fled toward Oicha, Beni and Butembo; the approximately 100,000 people already displaced in Beni before this spike are excluded." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The targeted UNHCR source resolves one actor-attributed January–March 2021 episode and excludes pre-existing Beni IDPs and later ADF activity. Nearby Ituri movements remain here only when directly ADF-attributed.", "disputes": "Attribution remains phrased as reported or blamed, and the opened event body does not establish return timing, household property outcomes beyond looting and flight, governance change, livelihoods, or durable demographic effects.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "A finite ADF raid sequence involving killings, house burning, kidnapping, threats, and rapid displacement from named villages", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-adf-attack-displacement-beni-and-nearby-ituri-january-march-2021::SRC-01", "title": "OHCHR, DRC Mapping Exercise fact sheet (complete cited body); United Nations Security Council, S/2024/251 (cited pages and paragraphs); UNHCR, 'Democratic Republic of the Congo. IDPs in Plain Savo' (complete cited body); UNHCR, 'Armed attacks kill hundreds, displace 40,000 civilians in northeast DR Congo' (one targeted authoritative alternative; review stopped after the bounded episode was resolved).", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/news/briefing-notes/armed-attacks-kill-hundreds-displace-40000-civilians-northeast-dr", "locator": "Briefing body, paragraphs beginning 'Since January' through the Oicha and Beni/Butembo displacement paragraphs" }, { "id": "prospective-adf-attack-displacement-beni-and-nearby-ituri-january-march-2021::SRC-02", "title": "OHCHR, DRC Mapping Exercise fact sheet (complete cited body); United Nations Security Council, S/2024/251 (cited pages and paragraphs); UNHCR, 'Democratic Republic of the Congo. IDPs in Plain Savo' (complete cited body); UNHCR, 'Armed attacks kill hundreds, displace 40,000 civilians in northeast DR Congo' (one targeted authoritative alternative; review stopped after the bounded episode was resolved).", "url": "https://documents.un.org/api/symbol/access?l=en&s=S%2F2024%2F251&t=pdf", "locator": "S/2024/251, later Ituri and North Kivu reporting used only as a temporal comparator" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-second-congo-war-eastern-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "The 40,000-person estimate is separated from the roughly 100,000 pre-existing Beni IDPs and must not be added to later provincial stocks without a person-level crosswalk. Directly ADF-attributed displacement in nearby Ituri stays with this target; unattributed or CODECO/Zaïre-related Ituri displacement stays with the revised Ituri target. Later ADF activity in 2023–2024 is excluded.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_061", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-renewed-ituri-intercommunity-and-armed-group-displacement-from-2018", "name": "Renewed intercommunity and armed-group displacement in Ituri from 2018, ongoing at 19 March 2024", "start": 2018, "end": 2018, "date_label": "from 2018 CE", "operative_date_start": 2018, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "UNHCR reports that massive violence in the first half of 2018 displaced an estimated 350,000 people in Ituri and that renewed attacks caused 16,000 people to flee, many for a second time, by September. The Plain Savo body documents the displacement system in January 2023, and S/2024/251 documents continued Ituri violence through 19 March 2024. Continuity at person level and an endpoint are unresolved, so the end year is UNKNOWN.", "region": "Central Africa", "mechanism": "Intercommunity and armed-group attacks on civilians and opposing groups; killings, house burning, kidnapping and violence at or near IDP sites; control of villages, fields, roads and mineral areas; initial and repeated flight; and lethal return foreclosure where attempted returnees were kidnapped or killed.", "agents": [ "CODECO, Zaïre, ADF, FRPI, FPIC and other armed groups operating in Ituri; FARDC and UPDF in operations against ADF; armed actors aligned with opposing communities; and civilians targeted in villages, mining areas, roads and displacement sites. Whole ethnic communities are not treated as perpetrators." ], "victims": [ "Ituri civilians repeatedly displaced by intercommunity and armed-group attacks, including people in Djugu, Mahagi, Irumu and Mambasa and about 40,000 residents of the Plain Savo site. The 350,000 first-half-2018 estimate, 16,000 renewed displacement, 40,000 site population and 1.8 million provincial stock have different dates and scopes and are not summed." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources support a coherent renewed regional system and separate it from war-era Ituri, directly attributed ADF movements, M23, and South Kivu. Differently scoped stocks remain nonadditive.", "disputes": "The sources do not resolve incident-level attribution for every departure, complete locality and household rosters, title or property outcomes after flight, livelihood effects, or a unified legal-governance change.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Renewed intercommunity and armed-group attacks, village and field control, repeated flight, and lethal return foreclosure in Ituri from 2018", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-renewed-ituri-intercommunity-and-armed-group-displacement-from-2018::SRC-01", "title": "OHCHR, DRC Mapping Exercise fact sheet (complete cited body); United Nations Security Council, S/2024/251 (cited pages and paragraphs); UNHCR, 'Democratic Republic of the Congo. IDPs in Plain Savo' (complete cited body); UNHCR, 'UNHCR alarm at recent attacks and rising displacement in eastern DRC' (one targeted authoritative alternative; review stopped after the renewed phase was resolved).", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/us/news/briefing-notes/unhcr-alarmed-violence-and-displacement-ituri-drc", "locator": "UNHCR briefing body, paragraphs beginning 'Since the start of the year' through the displacement-site description" }, { "id": "prospective-renewed-ituri-intercommunity-and-armed-group-displacement-from-2018::SRC-02", "title": "OHCHR, DRC Mapping Exercise fact sheet (complete cited body); United Nations Security Council, S/2024/251 (cited pages and paragraphs); UNHCR, 'Democratic Republic of the Congo. IDPs in Plain Savo' (complete cited body); UNHCR, 'UNHCR alarm at recent attacks and rising displacement in eastern DRC' (one targeted authoritative alternative; review stopped after the renewed phase was resolved).", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/spotlight/2022/02/democratic-republic-of-the-congo-idps-in-plain-savo/", "locator": "Plain Savo article body, paragraphs on repeated CODECO and ADF attacks and inability to return" }, { "id": "prospective-renewed-ituri-intercommunity-and-armed-group-displacement-from-2018::SRC-03", "title": "OHCHR, DRC Mapping Exercise fact sheet (complete cited body); United Nations Security Council, S/2024/251 (cited pages and paragraphs); UNHCR, 'Democratic Republic of the Congo. IDPs in Plain Savo' (complete cited body); UNHCR, 'UNHCR alarm at recent attacks and rising displacement in eastern DRC' (one targeted authoritative alternative; review stopped after the renewed phase was resolved).", "url": "https://documents.un.org/api/symbol/access?l=en&s=S%2F2024%2F251&t=pdf", "locator": "S/2024/251, paragraphs 3 and related Ituri reporting for December 2023-19 March 2024" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-second-congo-war-eastern-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Revise the broad Ituri label to the renewed post-2018 phase so that 1999–2003 Ituri displacement remains inside the Second Congo War target. Directly ADF-attributed January–March 2021 movements belong to the revised ADF target; mixed provincial and site stocks cannot be added to that cohort. M23 and South Kivu movements are excluded.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_061", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 47.9656026268, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4399905824, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.1044134352, "unknown_bound_high": 77.1053551946 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 5.3172607797, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7246846273, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 3.8533371461, "unknown_bound_high": 31.384874421 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1987618544, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.1496762811, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.2803486359, "unknown_bound_high": 77.6552628173 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1059221108, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4077889163 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-ruzizi-plain-intercommunity-displacement-december-2023-march-2024", "name": "Ruzizi Plain intercommunity-violence displacement in South Kivu, 1 December 2023–19 March 2024", "start": 2023, "end": 2024, "date_label": "2023–2024 CE", "operative_date_start": 2023, "operative_date_end": 2024, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "S/2024/251 covers 1 December 2023–19 March 2024 and directly reports escalating intercommunity tensions and violence in the Ruzizi Plain that resulted in population displacement. These dates bound the observed source window, not a demonstrated full onset or termination; no earlier or later duration is inferred.", "region": "Central Africa", "mechanism": "Escalating intercommunity tensions and armed violence along ethnic lines, spreading to other areas and causing population displacement. No forced share, destruction count or direction of movement is supplied.", "agents": [ "Unspecified armed and community-aligned actors involved in violence along ethnic lines among Banyamulenge and Barundi communities and Bavira, Banyindu and Bafuliru communities; affected civilians; and humanitarian or protection actors responding in South Kivu. The source does not authorize treating any whole community as a perpetrator." ], "victims": [ "Civilian residents of the Ruzizi Plain displaced by the reported intercommunity violence. The opened source supplies no disaggregated number, village roster, direction of flight or community-specific displaced count, and none is inferred." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly links this one South Kivu system to displacement within a finite reporting window. No population count or route is invented, and unrelated M23 arrivals and Haut-Plateaux confrontations are excluded.", "disputes": "The reporting dates are an observation window, not a demonstrated onset and endpoint. The source supplies no named armed units, affected-village roster, direction or destination of flight, property-damage evidence, governance change, livelihood effect, nonduplicated count, community-specific displaced count, or continuity beyond 19 March 2024.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "A bounded Ruzizi Plain escalation of intercommunity armed violence causing civilian territorial displacement", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-ruzizi-plain-intercommunity-displacement-december-2023-march-2024::SRC-01", "title": "OHCHR, DRC Mapping Exercise fact sheet (complete cited body); United Nations Security Council, S/2024/251 (cited pages and paragraphs); UNHCR, 'Democratic Republic of the Congo. IDPs in Plain Savo' (complete cited body). No additional authoritative source was needed for the directly reported Ruzizi unit.", "url": "https://documents.un.org/api/symbol/access?l=en&s=S%2F2024%2F251&t=pdf", "locator": "S/2024/251 opened successfully. Paragraphs 26–27 are present on the recorded page and identify the 1 December 2023–19 March 2024 reporting window, Ruzizi Plain intercommunity tensions and armed violence along ethnic lines, and resulting population displacement." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-second-congo-war-eastern-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Revise the province-wide target to the directly supported Ruzizi Plain unit. Exclude North Kivu M23-origin displacement toward Minova and Kalehe, the separately described Haut-Plateaux Twirwaneho–Mai-Mai confrontations, and all 1998–2003 South Kivu movement inside the Second Congo War target. No counts are combined.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_061", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1347286517, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.4728651668, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 2.3825278974, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8086656929, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.926668573, "unknown_bound_high": 21.0600992826 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1987618544, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.2952944126, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2465868986, "unknown_bound_high": 74.62150108 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1059221108, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 89.4077889163 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-fiji-bound-coerced-or-deceptive-labour-recruitment-october-1864-10-october-1874", "name": "Fiji-bound coerced or deceptively recruited Pacific Island labor removal, October 1864–10 October 1874", "start": 1864, "end": 1874, "date_label": "1864–1874 CE", "operative_date_start": 1864, "operative_date_end": 1874, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The opened project source brief directly locates the first Fiji recruiting ship's departure for the New Hebrides in October 1864 and Fiji's Cession to Britain on 10 October 1874. Macnaught independently fixes the Cession date and confirms that New Hebridean and Solomon Island labor was already on pre-Cession estates. The endpoint is an institutional boundary, not a claim that coercion ceased that day.", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "Recruitment for plantation labor through a mixture of contracts and deliberate employment-seeking with documented false pretences, coercion, kidnapping, confinement and violence, followed by transport to and indentured work in Fiji under a weakly enforced pre-Cession regime.", "agents": [ "Private recruiters, shipmasters and intermediaries; Fiji planters and employers; the resident British consul and Cakobau government as weak pre-Cession regulators; and Pacific Island recruits, including people taken through kidnapping, coercion or false pretences within a mixed-voluntariness labor stream." ], "victims": [ "A numerically unresolved subset of Pacific Island recruits taken coercively or deceptively, principally from the New Hebrides and Solomon Islands with smaller streams from the Gilbert Islands and elsewhere. Recorded contract totals include voluntary and involuntary recruitment and repeat contracts and are not coerced-person counts." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources establish a bounded Fiji-directed system and real coercive mechanisms while showing that contract totals also include voluntary and repeat recruitment. The coerced fraction remains unknown rather than being generalized to every worker.", "disputes": "The coerced or deceived fraction, unique-person total, voyage roster, source-community shares, mortality denominator, and pre-Cession return-versus-staying outcomes remain unknown. The source does not support systematic source-land title transfer, complete depopulation, universal involuntariness, or a claim that coercion ended at Cession.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Pre-Cession Pacific labor removal using documented deception, coercion, kidnapping, confinement and violence followed by Fiji plantation indenture", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-fiji-bound-coerced-or-deceptive-labour-recruitment-october-1864-10-october-1874::SRC-01", "title": "Timothy J. Macnaught, 'The Fijian Colonial Experience' (opened cited introduction, chapter 2 and chapter 8 bodies); David Craig et al., 'Labour Mobility and Diaspora' (opened cited Part 1 pages); project source brief 'pacific-fiji-bound-coercive-labour-recruitment.md' (complete cited body and specified sections).", "url": "analysis/second_pass/v5/modern_source_briefs/pacific-fiji-bound-coercive-labour-recruitment.md", "locator": "The authorized local durable target opened successfully, and the recorded Bounded unit, Inclusion-gate verdict, date-boundary, chronology, counts, people-and-land, and overlap sections contain the packet's October 1864–10 October 1874 scope and stated evidence limits." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "pacific-fiji-plantation-indenture" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Keep the pre-Cession coerced/deceptive subset separate from post-Cession Pacific recruitment, Indian indenture from 1879, pre-Cession Fiji settler land claims, Queensland and Vanuatu labor systems and the 1862–1864 Peruvian raids. Shared source islands or plantation economy do not merge them. The mixed parent is not counted alongside this child.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_064", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 20.2150401626, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9233884853, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.6663353166, "unknown_bound_high": 26.3274867834 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 6.424900093, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5169887795, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.3216012572, "unknown_bound_high": 51.622723312 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2340881828, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.5566137125, "unknown_bound_high": 94.1477954292 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 18.8722132413, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4402369343, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.3082453015, "unknown_bound_high": 64.2845518678 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.602631969, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.1852619539, "unknown_bound_high": 80.2955147837 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1224105579, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 87.7589442061 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-bikini-nuclear-test-displacement", "name": "U.S. removal of the Bikini community for nuclear testing, serial relocations, attempted return, and renewed removal, 1946–1978", "start": 1946, "end": 1978, "date_label": "1946–1978 CE", "operative_date_start": 1946, "operative_date_end": 1978, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "OHCHR dates the initial relocation of 167 Bikini inhabitants to Rongerik to 7 March 1946. It records moves to Kwajalein and Kili in 1948, a 1956 move of some Bikinians to Jaluit and their 1958 return to Kili, a U.S. safety assurance in 1967, return by some residents in 1971, and renewed removal to Kili and Ejit in 1978 after dangerous radioactivity was found. The year fields end at the last directly dated removal action; continuing displacement after 1978 is an outcome, not a newly inferred event.", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "Pre-test compelled removal under pressured temporary-consent representations; serial administrative relocation to resource-poor sites; a premature federal safety assurance and decontamination-based return; and renewed removal after radiological monitoring showed dangerous contamination.", "agents": [ "The United States Navy, occupying administration, Trust Territory administration, and federal radiological authorities as selecting, removing, relocating, assessing, and authorizing actors; Bikini leaders and community members as the displaced and returning population." ], "victims": [ "The Indigenous people of Bikini Atoll, including the 167 persons removed in March 1946, later community members moved among Rongerik, Kwajalein, Kili, Jaluit and Ejit, and the subset that returned to Bikini before the 1978 removal. Later phase counts are not treated as additive or as a complete roster." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The UN and DOE sources support one Bikini-specific sequence from 1946 through 1978 with its own homeland, cohort, destinations, and return history. Other Marshall test and fallout removals remain distinct.", "disputes": "The opened record does not provide complete or nonduplicative rosters for the Jaluit move, 1971 return, or 1978 removal, and it does not resolve person-level overlap with other temporary Marshall Islands movements. Continuing displacement is supported, but exact phase populations and individual return histories remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Pre-test compelled community removal, serial failed relocations, premature return under a federal safety assurance, and renewed radiological removal", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-bikini-nuclear-test-displacement::SRC-01", "title": "OHCHR, A/HRC/59/46/Add.1 (2025), https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4087118/files/A_HRC_59_46_Add.1-EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0; OHCHR, A/HRC/57/77 (2024), https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4076891/files/A_HRC_57_77-EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0; Matthew B. Moury, U.S. Department of Energy testimony on the U.S. nuclear legacy in the Marshall Islands (21 October 2021), https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-10/10.21.21%20HNR%20AU%20Matthew%20Moury%20Testimony%20.pdf", "url": "https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4087118/files/A_HRC_59_46_Add.1-EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0", "locator": "A/HRC/59/46/Add.1 opened successfully, and paragraphs 6–8 on printed page 3 contain the recorded 1946 removal, 1948 moves, constrained Kili choice, food insecurity, 1967 safety assurance, 1971 return, and 1978 renewed removal." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "pacific-marshall-nuclear-displacements" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-level duplication with the other Marshall targets. Bikini involved a named community removed before tests from Bikini in 1946, its own serial destinations and a 1971–1978 return/re-removal phase. Enewetak/Enjebi were removed for a different test site in December 1947, while Rongelap/Ailinginae and Utirik were evacuated only after Castle Bravo fallout in 1954. The temporary 1946 Rongelap/Wotho movement to Lae is outside this identity even if individual-level overlap cannot be tested.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_065", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.876775734, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9322944446, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.3176798254, "unknown_bound_high": 97.0882353677 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 34.1714699828, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.9073203156, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.0044689296, "unknown_bound_high": 40.2724373687 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 80.1238145571, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.1238145571, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 47.3776358296, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 30.4722966205, "unknown_bound_high": 66.1544046723 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.88148573, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8219600229, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 45.1103872647, "unknown_bound_high": 62.9143849796 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-enewetak-nuclear-test-displacement", "name": "U.S. nuclear-test removal of the Enewetak polity to Ujelang and return to its southern-atoll homeland, 1947–1980", "start": 1947, "end": 1980, "date_label": "1947–1980 CE", "operative_date_start": 1947, "operative_date_end": 1980, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The 1982 DOE report states that the community landed at Ujelang on 21 December 1947 and that permanent resettlement facilities were reported complete on 28 May 1948. The 2006 DOE-sponsored LLNL report independently dates removal to December 1947, before Operation Sandstone began in April 1948, and dates resettlement of Enewetak Island to 1980. OHCHR dates decontamination to 1977–1980 and the combined Enewetak/Enjebi return to 1980. Thus, 1947 is the directly supported removal year; the 1948 OHCHR wording concerns establishment of the test site and ensuing tests rather than a later initial removal.", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "Federal requisition of Enewetak Atoll for nuclear testing, compelled inter-atoll removal to Ujelang, prolonged exile with food insecurity, community petitions for return, federal cleanup and decontamination from 1977 to 1980, and organized return to three southern islands in 1980.", "agents": [ "The United States Navy and Trust Territory administration as requisitioning and removal authorities; later United States defense, energy and interior agencies as cleanup, radiological and resettlement actors; the Enewetak Iroij, community leaders and Enewetak people as the displaced, petitioning and returning polity." ], "victims": [ "Members of the Enewetak polity displaced to Ujelang and returned in 1980 to islands within their own southern-atoll homeland. The opened sources give a combined 500-person Enewetak-and-Enjebi return figure but do not disaggregate an Enewetak-only count; the Enjebi polity is excluded from this affected-population identity." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Government records fix physical removal in December 1947 and the UN source distinguishes the Enewetak polity and its 1980 homeland return from Enjebi's unresolved land outcome. Shared transport and combined totals remain nonadditive cohort overlap.", "disputes": "The source gives a combined 500-person Enewetak-and-Enjebi return figure and does not supply an Enewetak-only roster or count, household-level origins and destinations, or the degree and duration of return across Enewetak, Medren, and Japtan. Those facts must remain unknown rather than be derived from the combined figure.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Federal test-site requisition, compelled removal of the Enewetak polity to Ujelang, prolonged exile, cleanup, and organized return to southern homeland islands", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-enewetak-nuclear-test-displacement::SRC-01", "title": "OHCHR, A/HRC/59/46/Add.1 (2025), https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4087118/files/A_HRC_59_46_Add.1-EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0; OHCHR, A/HRC/57/77 (2024), https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4076891/files/A_HRC_57_77-EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0; Matthew B. Moury, U.S. Department of Energy testimony on the U.S. nuclear legacy in the Marshall Islands (21 October 2021), https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-10/10.21.21%20HNR%20AU%20Matthew%20Moury%20Testimony%20.pdf; U.S. Department of Energy, Enewetak Radiological Support Project Final Report (1982), opened report page 25 in RMI Nuclear Justice Documents; Hamilton et al., Individual Radiation Protection Monitoring in the Marshall Islands: Enewetak Atoll (2002–2004), U.S. Department of Energy-sponsored Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory report UCRL-TR-220591 (2006)", "url": "https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4087118/files/A_HRC_59_46_Add.1-EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0", "locator": "A/HRC/59/46/Add.1 opened successfully. Paragraphs 9–10 distinguish the Enewetak and Enjebi polities, record the 1947 nuclear-test requisition and move to Ujelang, document exile conditions and petitions, and identify the 1977–1980 cleanup and 1980 return to Enewetak-homeland islands." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "pacific-marshall-nuclear-displacements" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "The Enewetak and Enjebi polities shared the December 1947 transport to Ujelang and are combined in the 1980 return total, but the opened UN source directly distinguishes their pre-existing polities and homelands. Enewetak members returned to decontaminated islands within the Enewetak homeland; Enjebi members did not return to the Enjebi homeland. Preserve the shared phases as cohort overlap, not duplicate event identities or additive counts.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_065", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.876775734, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9322944446, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.3176798254, "unknown_bound_high": 97.0882353677 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 35.7190489482, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7763245676, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 27.7295752286, "unknown_bound_high": 50.0971184719 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 80.1238145571, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.1238145571, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 47.3776358296, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 30.4722966205, "unknown_bound_high": 66.1544046723 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 18.2938285767, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8219600229, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.0367957549, "unknown_bound_high": 32.8407934698 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-enjebi-nuclear-test-displacement-and-land-claim", "name": "U.S. nuclear-test removal of the Enjebi polity to Ujelang, constrained return outside its homeland, and continuing Enjebi land-return claim, from 1947", "start": 1947, "end": 1947, "date_label": "from 1947 CE", "operative_date_start": 1947, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "known start used only as a model coordinate; terminal year remains unresolved", "date_resolution": "The DOE records place the inter-atoll removal in December 1947, before Operation Sandstone began in April 1948. OHCHR records an Enjebi vote in 1979 to return to the Enjebi homeland, a combined Enewetak/Enjebi return in 1980 only to Enewetak, Medren and Japtan within the other polity's homeland, and no congressional funding for Enjebi-homeland resettlement. A/HRC/59/46/Add.1 states in 2025 that the Enjebi remain displaced. The end-year field is therefore honestly blank: no terminal return or abandonment date is supported.", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "Nuclear-test requisition and compelled removal to Ujelang; prolonged food insecurity and petitioning; partial atoll resettlement after cleanup but outside the Enjebi homeland; conflicting federal habitability assessments; failure to fund homeland resettlement; and a continuing community land-return claim.", "agents": [ "The United States Navy and Trust Territory administration as requisitioning and removal authorities; the United States Departments of Energy, Interior and Defense and Congress as radiological-assessment, cleanup, habitability and funding actors; and the Enjebi Iroij, community leaders and Enjebi people as the displaced polity, voters and land-return claimants." ], "victims": [ "The Enjebi people, a polity distinct from Enewetak within the same atoll, removed to Ujelang and later able to live only on decontaminated islands within the Enewetak homeland rather than their own Enjebi homeland. The combined 500-person 1980 return figure is not treated as an Enjebi count." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The opened federal and UN records distinguish the Enjebi polity and homeland from Enewetak, fix the 1947 removal, and document a return only to another polity's islands while Enjebi homeland resettlement remained unfunded. Shared transport and combined return totals are cohort overlap to preserve in scoring, not event duplication.", "disputes": "No terminal year is supported. The opened record lacks an Enjebi-only roster and count, tract-level contamination findings, a complete resettlement-funding history, and evidence on later individual returns. The combined 500-person 1980 return cannot be converted into an Enjebi count.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Federal nuclear-test requisition and compelled removal of a distinct Enjebi polity followed by constrained return outside its homeland and continuing land loss", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-enjebi-nuclear-test-displacement-and-land-claim::SRC-01", "title": "OHCHR, A/HRC/59/46/Add.1 (2025), https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4087118/files/A_HRC_59_46_Add.1-EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0; OHCHR, A/HRC/57/77 (2024), https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4076891/files/A_HRC_57_77-EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0; Matthew B. Moury, U.S. Department of Energy testimony on the U.S. nuclear legacy in the Marshall Islands (21 October 2021), https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-10/10.21.21%20HNR%20AU%20Matthew%20Moury%20Testimony%20.pdf; U.S. Department of Energy, Enewetak Radiological Support Project Final Report (1982), opened report page 25 in RMI Nuclear Justice Documents; Hamilton et al., Individual Radiation Protection Monitoring in the Marshall Islands: Enewetak Atoll (2002–2004), U.S. Department of Energy-sponsored Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory report UCRL-TR-220591 (2006)", "url": "https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4087118/files/A_HRC_59_46_Add.1-EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0", "locator": "A/HRC/59/46/Add.1 opened successfully. Paragraphs 9–10 verify the separate Enjebi polity and homeland, 1947 requisition and movement to Ujelang, the 1979 homeland-return vote, 1980 return only to Enewetak-polity islands, conflicting federal habitability positions, absent congressional funding, and continuing displacement." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "pacific-marshall-nuclear-displacements" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "This identity shares transport, Ujelang exile and part of the 1980 return cohort with the Enewetak target, but it is not a duplicate: OHCHR directly identifies separate polities, separate homelands and divergent outcomes. The Enjebi land claim and failed homeland return are phases of the same community chain, not a second event. The 1944 wartime displacement is excluded as an earlier outside trigger.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_065", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "land_clearance_for_state_or_project_use", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.876775734, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9322944446, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 90.3176798254, "unknown_bound_high": 97.0882353677 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 35.7190489482, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7763245676, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 27.7295752286, "unknown_bound_high": 50.0971184719 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 80.1238145571, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.1238145571, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 47.3776358296, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 30.4722966205, "unknown_bound_high": 66.1544046723 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 59.0746458984, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8219600229, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 48.5569972926, "unknown_bound_high": 66.3609950075 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 100, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-rongelap-and-ailinginae-fallout-evacuation-and-return-chain", "name": "Castle Bravo fallout evacuation of Rongelapese from Rongelap and Ailinginae, 1957 return, and 1985 re-evacuation, 1954–1985", "start": 1954, "end": 1985, "date_label": "1954–1985 CE", "operative_date_start": 1954, "operative_date_end": 1985, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "OHCHR dates Castle Bravo to 1 March 1954, the Rongelap/Ailinginae evacuation to more than 48 hours after exposure, a three-month stay on Kwajalein followed by displacement on Ejit, return to Rongelap in 1957, a formal Nitijela relocation request in 1983, and Greenpeace's evacuation of the 300 remaining Rongelapese to Mejatto in 1985. The year fields end at the renewed movement action; the source reports continuing displacement thereafter.", "region": "Pacific and Oceania", "mechanism": "Castle Bravo fallout exposure followed by delayed government evacuation and medical care; temporary and multi-year displacement; government-authorized return despite known lingering radioactivity; health harms and unsuccessful relocation requests; and community-requested re-evacuation carried out by Greenpeace.", "agents": [ "United States nuclear-testing, Trust Territory, medical and radiological authorities as test, delayed-evacuation and return-safety actors; the Rongelapese community as the exposed, displaced, returning and re-evacuated population; the Nitijela as a relocation petitioner; and Greenpeace as the 1985 evacuation carrier." ], "victims": [ "The 82 Rongelapese reported on Rongelap and Ailinginae at exposure, together with approximately 200 Rongelapese absent during testing who joined the 1957 return, and the 300 remaining residents evacuated in 1985. These are phase-specific, overlapping figures and are not summed." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The same community, exposed territories, nuclear trigger, government safety decisions, and continuing land outcome join the 1954 evacuation, 1957 return, and 1985 re-evacuation into one intelligible chain. It remains disjoint from Utirik by population, duration, return history, and later outcome.", "disputes": "The opened passage does not provide a complete roster linking the 82 exposed people, approximately 200 absent returnees, and 300 people evacuated in 1985, and the phase figures must not be summed. It supplies no bounded labor or livelihood evidence and does not resolve individual return, compensation, or present land-access outcomes.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Fallout-driven removal, prolonged displacement, state-authorized return to contaminated territory, and later community re-evacuation with continuing land severance", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-rongelap-and-ailinginae-fallout-evacuation-and-return-chain::SRC-01", "title": "OHCHR, A/HRC/59/46/Add.1 (2025), https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4087118/files/A_HRC_59_46_Add.1-EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0; OHCHR, A/HRC/57/77 (2024), https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4076891/files/A_HRC_57_77-EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0; Matthew B. Moury, U.S. Department of Energy testimony on the U.S. nuclear legacy in the Marshall Islands (21 October 2021), https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-10/10.21.21%20HNR%20AU%20Matthew%20Moury%20Testimony%20.pdf", "url": "https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4087118/files/A_HRC_59_46_Add.1-EN.pdf?registerDownload=1&version=1&withMetadata=0&withWatermark=0", "locator": "A/HRC/59/46/Add.1 opened successfully, and paragraphs 11–12 on printed page 4 contain the recorded Castle Bravo exposure, delayed evacuation, Kwajalein and Ejit displacement, 1957 return, prolonged health effects, 1983 relocation request, and 1985 Greenpeace evacuation to Mejatto." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "pacific-marshall-nuclear-displacements" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "No event-level duplication with Utirik: both share the Castle Bravo trigger, but Rongelap/Ailinginae had a different exposed community, evacuation lag, extended displacement, 1957 return and 1985 re-evacuation, while Utirik returned after three months and was not later relocated. The temporary 1946 Rongelap/Wotho move had a different test, trigger and destination and remains outside this identity; any person-level overlap is unresolved.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_065", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.1439219468, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8158238593, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 71.0940907158, "unknown_bound_high": 89.5117047874 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 2.5978615871, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8759044518, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.2754785294, "unknown_bound_high": 14.6850333471 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 80.1238145571, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.1238145571, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 33.2444441777, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5070079173, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.8551964054, "unknown_bound_high": 66.1544046723 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 54.88148573, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.88148573, "unknown_bound_high": 54.88148573 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 87.5, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-initial-neolithic-farmer-expansion-from-southern-china-into-mainland-southeast-asia", "name": "Initial southern-China-derived Neolithic farmer expansion and admixture in Mainland Southeast Asia, approximately 2550–2050 BCE", "start": -2550, "end": -2050, "date_label": "2550–2050 BCE", "operative_date_start": -2550, "operative_date_end": -2050, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Lipson et al. place the beginning of rice farming in the region at approximately 4500–4000 years before present and date the early Man Bac farmer samples to 4100–3600 years before present. McColl et al. place the major East Asian farmer demographic expansion and the appearance of the Austroasiatic-associated Neolithic ancestry at about 4 kya. The year fields convert only the directly stated 4500–4000 BP initial-farming horizon using the conventional 1950 BP baseline; they are approximate bounds, not exact departure or arrival years.", "region": "Mainland Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, Malay Peninsula)", "mechanism": "Demographic migration accompanying the southward spread of rice- and millet-farming practices, followed by admixture with resident Hoabinhian-related populations and regional persistence of an Austroasiatic-associated ancestry profile. The genetic evidence does not establish coercive removal, conquest, land seizure or complete biological replacement.", "agents": [ "Incoming farming populations with East Asian ancestry related to southern Chinese agriculturalists and associated in the sources with proto-Austroasiatic language dispersal; resident Hoabinhian-related hunter-gatherer-descended populations that contributed ancestry through local admixture. These are source-defined population groups, not named states or uniform ethnic actors." ], "victims": [ "The incoming Neolithic farmer populations and the resident mainland hunter-gatherer-descended populations represented by the ancient genomes. The sources support admixture and local continuity and do not establish a complete replacement, a named victim cohort, or population totals." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Convergent ancient-DNA evidence supports a bounded initial southward settlement wave distinct from later migrations and affecting an existing resident landscape. Local continuity and admixture prevent a total-replacement claim, but do not erase the supported durable settlement and demographic transformation.", "disputes": "The genetic and archaeological record does not establish exact routes, locality-level arrival dates, migrant or resident population sizes, uniform language assignment, named political institutions, coercion, violence, displacement, land seizure, title transfer, or complete biological replacement. Those constructs must remain unknown or not applicable rather than be inferred from ancestry patterns.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Durable farmer settlement into inhabited Mainland Southeast Asian landscapes with demographic transformation and admixture with resident hunter-gatherer-descended populations", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-initial-neolithic-farmer-expansion-from-southern-china-into-mainland-southeast-asia::SRC-01", "title": "Lipson et al., Ancient genomes document multiple waves of migration in Southeast Asian prehistory (opened published Science PDF); McColl et al., Ancient Genomics Reveals Four Prehistoric Migration Waves into Southeast Asia / preprint of The prehistoric peopling of Southeast Asia (opened full bioRxiv PDF).", "url": "https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/SEA_published_0.pdf", "locator": "The Lipson et al. PDF opened successfully. Journal pages 92 and 94 contain the recorded 4500–4000 BP rice-farming horizon, 4100–3600 BP Man Bac samples, southern-Chinese agriculturalist ancestry, initial Austroasiatic-associated expansion with admixture, and separate later migration waves." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "deep history (before 1000 BCE)", "parent_event_ids": [ "prehistory-neolithic-mainland-southeast-asia-farmer-expansion" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "This initial approximately 4 kya farmer expansion is not duplicated by the later migrations in either paper. Later northern-Vietnam and Myanmar influxes have different dates and ancestry affinities, and the Austronesian movement into Island Southeast Asia follows a different route and population history. Related ancestry persisting at later sites is not itself counted as another initial movement, and local continuity prevents an unsupported total-replacement interpretation.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_067", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "low_state_durable_expansion", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.939274651, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 6.0725348956 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5725728385, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 42.7427161483 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 72.8621842573, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3996882461, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.1221586342, "unknown_bound_high": 89.1533340223 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 31.4089251688, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.582061844, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.2819369009, "unknown_bound_high": 60.0757525038 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1213504695, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 87.864953051 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 77.6872328388, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4119430796, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.0027179376, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8084099822 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-nk-sumgait-anti-armenian-pogrom-1988", "name": "Sumgait anti-Armenian pogrom and displacement episode", "start": 1988, "end": 1988, "date_label": "1988 CE", "operative_date_start": 1988, "operative_date_end": 1988, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "February 1988; the opened passage does not provide day-level dates.", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Anti-Armenian pogrom violence, killings, injuries, and threats within the wider 1988 wave of violent deportation and flight from Azerbaijan.", "agents": [ "Anti-Armenian pogrom participants in Sumgait; the opened passage does not establish a single authorizing institution." ], "victims": [ "Ethnic Armenian residents of Sumgait who were killed, injured, threatened, or driven to flee; the reported casualty figures are not displacement counts." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The February 1988 locality, affected population, violent mechanism, and first-departure rule form a coherent removal episode. Excluding later cities and onward movement prevents both causal and person-level double counting.", "disputes": "No household roster, origin-neighborhood roster, individualized first-departure date, destination history, property disposition record, return history, or single authorizing institution is established. The reported city population is not converted into a person-level displacement count for this review.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Locality-bounded anti-Armenian pogrom driving coerced departure from Sumgait homes and community space", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-nk-sumgait-anti-armenian-pogrom-1988::SRC-01", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://library.asue.am/open/1876.pdf", "locator": "Thomas de Waal, Black Garden, chapter February 1988: Azerbaijan: Puzzlement and Pogroms, subsection The Aftermath, printed p. 40 (PDF p. 51), first paragraph" }, { "id": "prospective-nk-sumgait-anti-armenian-pogrom-1988::SRC-02", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://www.refworld.org/reference/countryrep/hrw/1996/22218", "locator": "Azerbaijan/Armenia: The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict > Background, paragraphs 1-2 (web text lines 176-178)" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "ca-nagorno-karabakh-reciprocal-expulsions" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign only departures from a Sumgait residence attributable to the February 1988 episode; exclude Kirovabad/Ganja, Baku, later onward movement, and any person already counted at a different origin.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_019", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 46.2655074249, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6352287284, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 29.3891794515, "unknown_bound_high": 65.8663066089 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 6.2101520266, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5473042871, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.3988428278, "unknown_bound_high": 48.6684141159 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 33.3360387665, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.8760735821, "unknown_bound_high": 74.2509877635 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-nk-kirovabad-anti-armenian-riots-1988", "name": "Kirovabad anti-Armenian riot and displacement episode", "start": 1988, "end": 1988, "date_label": "1988 CE", "operative_date_start": 1988, "operative_date_end": 1988, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "November 1988; the opened passage does not provide day-level dates.", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Anti-Armenian rioting within the documented 1988 wave of pogroms, violent deportation, and flight from Azerbaijan.", "agents": [ "Anti-Armenian riot participants in Kirovabad, now Ganja; the opened passage does not establish a single authorizing institution." ], "victims": [ "Ethnic Armenian residents of Kirovabad/Ganja exposed to the anti-Armenian riots and associated flight." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The November 1988 recurrence has its own locality, timing, affected residents, and removal sequence. It is kept separate because the evidence does not establish one authorizing institution across Sumgait, Kirovabad, and Baku.", "disputes": "No person-level roster, exact first-departure dates, destination roster, completed sale-versus-loss record for homes, return history, or single authorizing institution is established. The source's locality population estimate is not adopted as a verified displacement count, and durability beyond the reported exodus remains unresolved.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Locality-bounded anti-Armenian violence driving coerced departure from Kirovabad homes and community space", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-nk-kirovabad-anti-armenian-riots-1988::SRC-01", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2015/king_harrison.pdf", "locator": "Harrison King, Pogroms in a Soviet City: The Unmaking of Kirovabad (1988-89), chapter 3, Everything Falls Apart, printed pp. 70-71 (PDF pp. 80-81), opening three paragraphs" }, { "id": "prospective-nk-kirovabad-anti-armenian-riots-1988::SRC-02", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://genocide-museum.am/eng/1.14.12.24.php", "locator": "Gandzak (Kirovabad) Massacres, paragraphs 4-8 (web text lines 71-76)" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "ca-nagorno-karabakh-reciprocal-expulsions" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign only departures from a Kirovabad/Ganja residence attributable to the November 1988 riots; exclude Sumgait, Baku, later onward movement, and the unresolved residual Armenian refugee branch.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_019", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 43.9828808423, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.7401116806, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 32.5522438557, "unknown_bound_high": 58.5410758005 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.2855256594, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7276097902, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 5.3010197962, "unknown_bound_high": 32.54004078 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 74.4013147875, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.4013147875, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 37.8010961219, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.9448735851, "unknown_bound_high": 67.1821877605 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2905197955, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.948020452 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-nk-baku-anti-armenian-pogrom-1990", "name": "Baku anti-Armenian pogrom and displacement episode", "start": 1990, "end": 1990, "date_label": "1990 CE", "operative_date_start": 1990, "operative_date_end": 1990, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "January 1990; the opened passage does not provide day-level dates.", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Anti-Armenian pogrom violence and reprisals producing deaths, threats, and flight during the 1990 departure wave.", "agents": [ "Anti-Armenian pogrom participants in Baku; Soviet troops are not assigned as the pogrom perpetrators by this target." ], "victims": [ "Ethnic Armenian residents of Baku exposed to violent reprisals and the 1990 refugee wave." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The January 1990 pogrom is a bounded removal episode distinct from earlier city pogroms and from the contemporaneous Soviet crackdown on Azerbaijani residents. The origin-based rule excludes onward movement and opposite-direction casualties.", "disputes": "The sources do not provide a complete Baku departure roster, origin-neighborhood list, household property inventory, exact total evacuated from the city, individualized first-departure dates, or a single authorizing institution for the pogrom. No Azerbaijan-wide refugee figure is assigned to Baku.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Anti-Armenian pogrom driving coerced departure from Baku homes and urban community territory", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-nk-baku-anti-armenian-pogrom-1990::SRC-01", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://www.refworld.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/en/2003-12/42c92d2d4.pdf", "locator": "UNHCR Moscow, Background Note on Ethnic Armenian Refugees from Azerbaijan, printed p. 1 (PDF p. 1), opening three paragraphs" }, { "id": "prospective-nk-baku-anti-armenian-pogrom-1990::SRC-02", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://www.refworld.org/reference/countryrep/hrw/1996/22218", "locator": "Azerbaijan/Armenia: The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict > Background, paragraphs 1-2 (web text lines 176-178)" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "ca-nagorno-karabakh-reciprocal-expulsions" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign only departures from a Baku residence attributable to the January 1990 pogrom; exclude Soviet-force deaths of Azeri residents, earlier Sumgait/Kirovabad departures, and later onward movement.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_019", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 52.1057604807, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4983612709, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.9674930124, "unknown_bound_high": 76.1313659262 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.0913046194, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.281098106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.3988428278, "unknown_bound_high": 75.2890322258 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.469450881, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.4702088262, "unknown_bound_high": 81.5251207227 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 33.3360387665, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.8760735821, "unknown_bound_high": 74.2509877635 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-nk-operation-ring-armenian-displacement-1991", "name": "Operation Ring displacement of Armenian communities", "start": 1991, "end": 1991, "date_label": "1991 CE", "operative_date_start": 1991, "operative_date_end": 1991, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "April-May 1991 for the operation described in Sargsyan; HRW identifies the bounded operation in 1991. Some returns occurred in late 1991 and early 1992 and are not part of the removal interval.", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Military and passport-checking operation used to disarm local Armenian militants and expel Armenian villagers through force, arrests, and violence.", "agents": [ "Government of the Azerbaijani SSR with Soviet central authorities; Azerbaijani SSR OMON and USSR internal forces are identified in the village-level account." ], "victims": [ "Armenian civilians in Geranboi/Shaumyan and Chaikent/Getashen, including the Armenian population of villages expelled during the operation." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Operation Ring has a named operation, governmental actor structure, bounded 1991 interval, village geography, and direct expulsion mechanism. Return and the later 1992 counteroffensive remain aftermath or a separate trigger rather than duplicate phases.", "disputes": "The opened passage does not provide a complete village or person roster, a nonduplicated displacement count, household destinations, livelihood effects, or a return history for the operation. It also does not resolve overlap with later 1992 displacement in the same region, so those facts remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "State and Soviet-force operation using arrests and violence to expel Armenian villagers from named communities", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-nk-operation-ring-armenian-displacement-1991::SRC-01", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/app/conversion/pdf/?id=001-155662&library=ECHR", "locator": "The ECtHR Sargsyan judgment opened successfully, and paragraphs 29–34, especially paragraph 32, identify the April–May 1991 passport-checking and disarmament operation, USSR internal forces and Azerbaijani OMON, expulsions from Shahumyan villages, flight, arrests, and violence." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "ca-nagorno-karabakh-reciprocal-expulsions" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign a civilian once by the village of origin from which Operation Ring expelled the person; exclude June 1992 counteroffensive departures, later onward movement, and late-1991/early-1992 returns.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_019", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 87.6028888535, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.6028888535, "unknown_bound_high": 87.6028888535 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 4.5534895872, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.5534895872, "unknown_bound_high": 4.5534895872 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 31.8046487548, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 64.0183010755 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-nk-azerbaijani-counteroffensive-armenian-displacement-1992", "name": "June 1992 Azerbaijani counteroffensive displacement of Armenians", "start": 1992, "end": 1992, "date_label": "1992 CE", "operative_date_start": 1992, "operative_date_end": 1992, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "June 1992; Sargsyan identifies attacks on 12-13 June for Gulistan within the wider operation.", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Counteroffensive, bombardment, ground attack, and resulting flight that displaced roughly 40,000 people in the source estimate.", "agents": [ "Azerbaijani armed forces conducting the June 1992 counteroffensive." ], "victims": [ "Armenian residents of Geranboi/Shaumyan and Mardakert, including the applicant's family and other Gulistan residents." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The counteroffensive is separately dated and operationally distinct from Operation Ring despite recurring geography. Counting only a documented new departure from a home tract prevents repeat counting of people displaced in both phases.", "disputes": "The opened passages do not establish household-complete losses, title disposition, exact destination and return for every displaced person, livelihood effects, or a uniform governance outcome.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "June 1992 military attack and territorial advance causing Armenian civilian flight from Geranboi/Shaumyan and Mardakert communities", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-nk-azerbaijani-counteroffensive-armenian-displacement-1992::SRC-01", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/app/conversion/pdf/?id=001-155662&library=ECHR", "locator": "Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan, paragraphs 34-40, PDF pp. 9-10" }, { "id": "prospective-nk-azerbaijani-counteroffensive-armenian-displacement-1992::SRC-02", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/reports/pdfs/a/azerbjn/azerbaij94d.pdf", "locator": "Human Rights Watch, printed pp. 24-26 and 116, June 1992 offensive and displacement passages" }, { "id": "prospective-nk-azerbaijani-counteroffensive-armenian-displacement-1992::SRC-03", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/1994/12/01/seven-years-conflict-nagorno-karabakh", "locator": "Report landing body and summary for 'Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh'" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "ca-nagorno-karabakh-reciprocal-expulsions" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign only the first June 1992 departure from a Geranboi/Shaumyan or Mardakert origin; exclude Operation Ring departures unless the source documents a new post-return displacement, and exclude subsequent returns from removal counts.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_019", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 89.4454037826, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7434572324, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 66.4988323482, "unknown_bound_high": 92.153109107 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 1.926668573, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.926668573, "unknown_bound_high": 1.926668573 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 45.1706554375, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 31.8046487548, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 64.0183010755 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 14.1006684082, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8219600229, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.590185727, "unknown_bound_high": 29.394183442 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-nk-lachin-azerbaijani-displacement-1992", "name": "Lachin capture and Azerbaijani civilian displacement", "start": 1992, "end": 1992, "date_label": "1992 CE", "operative_date_start": 1992, "operative_date_end": 1992, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "17-18 May 1992 for the applicants' flight and capture of Lachin; HRW describes the broader offensive in May-June 1992.", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Military advance and capture followed by flight, looting, burning, and destruction, producing approximately 30,000 displaced persons in the cited reports.", "agents": [ "Ethnic Armenian forces, including Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian forces; the parties disputed the degree of participation by Armenian state forces." ], "victims": [ "Azerbaijani residents of Lachin district, many of Kurdish descent, including residents who fled Lachin city and surrounding villages." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The May–June 1992 capture has a bounded tract, actor direction, affected population, and land-loss outcome. Excluding the remainder of Lachin captured in 1993 and later property-access effects prevents geographic and phase duplication.", "disputes": "The source preserves a dispute over the degree of Armenian state-force participation and does not provide a complete district roster, nonduplicated person list, or return history for all displaced residents. The approximately 30,000 figure and named applicants cannot be converted into household-level coverage or an exact destruction denominator.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Military capture of Lachin territory followed by Azerbaijani civilian flight, looting, burning, destruction, and prolonged loss of access", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-nk-lachin-azerbaijani-displacement-1992::SRC-01", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/app/conversion/pdf/?filename=&id=001-155353&library=ECHR", "locator": "The ECtHR Chiragov judgment opened successfully. Paragraphs 18–23 verify the mid-May bombardment, 17 May civilian flight, 18 May capture, looting, burning, destruction of Lachin and named villages, and approximately 30,000 displaced people; paragraphs 137–150 verify residence, land, houses, livelihoods, and continuing property rights." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "ca-nagorno-karabakh-reciprocal-expulsions" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign a person once by a Lachin-district origin and the May-June 1992 capture; exclude the rest-of-Lachin 1993 offensive, later onward movement, and continuing property-access effects from a second displacement count.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_019", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 44.1120781145, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4974535193, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.943708501, "unknown_bound_high": 72.1983565726 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.2070046162, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6541616468, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 7.9853542418, "unknown_bound_high": 42.5691895654 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 40.6566399321, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.28533226, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.6006509574, "unknown_bound_high": 83.0674249535 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8872683362, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.7268336174, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 38.5033221568, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.3153869016, "unknown_bound_high": 67.552701077 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 58.1865520496, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6472025489, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 37.6584847961, "unknown_bound_high": 72.9382299097 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-nk-surrounding-districts-azerbaijani-displacement-1993", "name": "1993 Karabakh Armenian offensives in the surrounding Azerbaijani districts", "start": 1993, "end": 1993, "date_label": "1993 CE", "operative_date_start": 1993, "operative_date_end": 1993, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Calendar year 1993; the opened roster passages do not supply one common day or month for all district offensives.", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Successive military offensives, territorial capture, and forced removal of the Azerbaijani civilian population; HRW reports an estimated 450,000-500,000 people forced from their homes.", "agents": [ "Karabakh Armenian forces, sometimes with support from forces of the Republic of Armenia." ], "victims": [ "Azerbaijani civilians in the captured surrounding districts." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The sources group these district captures as one campaign wave under a common force direction and removal mechanism. The explicit tract exclusions for earlier Lachin, the former NKAO, and the later 1994 front line make the unit non-overlapping.", "disputes": "The passages do not supply a household-complete origin and destination roster, title-by-title property outcome, exact force participation in every district, livelihood effects, or a uniform legal-governance result.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Successive 1993 territorial offensives and captures forcing Azerbaijani civilians from the surrounding districts", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-nk-surrounding-districts-azerbaijani-displacement-1993::SRC-01", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/app/conversion/pdf/?filename=&id=001-155353&library=ECHR", "locator": "Chiragov and Others v. Armenia, paragraphs 23-25 and surrounding-district factual section" }, { "id": "prospective-nk-surrounding-districts-azerbaijani-displacement-1993::SRC-02", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/reports/pdfs/a/azerbjn/azerbaij94d.pdf", "locator": "Human Rights Watch, printed p. 8 and p. 116, 1993 province-seizure and displacement passages" }, { "id": "prospective-nk-surrounding-districts-azerbaijani-displacement-1993::SRC-03", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/1994/12/01/seven-years-conflict-nagorno-karabakh", "locator": "Report landing body and summary for 'Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh'" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "ca-nagorno-karabakh-reciprocal-expulsions" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign each departure by district of pre-offensive residence and first 1993 forced departure; exclude the part of Lachin captured in May-June 1992, the former NKAO residual branch, the April 1994 front-line episode, and onward displacement.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_019", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 62.0972157627, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6019163937, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 37.3773321722, "unknown_bound_high": 77.1856927997 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.6064299574, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7893720798, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 6.0043034355, "unknown_bound_high": 27.0670954534 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1693257505, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 83.0674249535 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 96.3420001989, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8872683362, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.4812062201, "unknown_bound_high": 96.7543726027 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.9518198708, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.8835486404, "unknown_bound_high": 74.1208628157 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 58.1865520496, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6472025489, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 37.6584847961, "unknown_bound_high": 72.9382299097 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-nk-april-offensive-azerbaijani-displacement-1994", "name": "Late-April 1994 Karabakh Armenian front-line displacement", "start": 1994, "end": 1994, "date_label": "1994 CE", "operative_date_start": 1994, "operative_date_end": 1994, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Late April 1994; the source reports the resulting refugee flow on 3-4 May 1994.", "region": "Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Military offensive and resulting civilian flight, reported as creating approximately 50,000 displaced persons.", "agents": [ "Karabakh Armenian forces conducting the late-April offensive." ], "victims": [ "Azerbaijani civilians displaced from the front-line areas identified by the ICRC report cited by HRW." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The late-April 1994 operation, named tracts, and ensuing refugee flow support a bounded removal event even though durability and successor use remain scoring unknowns. The first-departure rule excludes residents already removed from the same homes in 1993.", "disputes": "The 50,000 estimate may include people displaced by earlier offensives and is not a unique-person count. The source does not provide a settlement or household roster, day-level attack chronology, return history, property-damage denominator, governing-law change, or bounded livelihood evidence for this front-line episode.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Separately dated front-line offensive causing coerced civilian departure from the Agdam–Barda corridor and parts of Terter and Geranboi", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-nk-april-offensive-azerbaijani-displacement-1994::SRC-01", "title": "Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), opened report pp. 1-2, 97-99, and 102-103; European Court of Human Rights, Chiragov and Others v. Armenia [GC], opened paragraphs 20-25, 137-150, and 196-207; European Court of Human Rights, Sargsyan v. Azerbaijan [GC], opened paragraphs 34-40, 193-205, and 237-241. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/reports/pdfs/a/azerbjn/azerbaij94d.pdf", "locator": "The HRW/Helsinki PDF opened successfully. Report page 99 and footnote 212 identify the late-April 1994 Karabakh Armenian offensive along the Agdam–Barda road and in Terter and Geranboi and the resulting approximately 50,000 displaced people; the 1994 developments passage confirms the same front and force direction." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "ca-nagorno-karabakh-reciprocal-expulsions" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign only a first departure from the named front-line tract caused by the late-April 1994 offensive; exclude persons already displaced from the same home in the 1993 surrounding-district offensives and exclude onward movement.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_019", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 48.8686425008, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5187581431, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25.3510062411, "unknown_bound_high": 73.4751919278 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 1.926668573, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.926668573, "unknown_bound_high": 1.926668573 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 45.1706554375, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.2952944126, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2465868986, "unknown_bound_high": 74.62150108 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-balkan-serbian-albanian-border-suppression-1913", "name": "Serbian suppression and displacement in Albanian border regions", "start": 1913, "end": 1913, "date_label": "1913 CE", "operative_date_start": 1913, "operative_date_end": 1913, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "September-October 1913 following the Albanian insurgency; Pezo notes September burning in the Ohrid region.", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "Military suppression of the insurgency through excessive force, systematic village burning, massacres, and mass migration.", "agents": [ "Serbian army; Greek armed forces collaborated in the Ohrid/Debar tract. Montenegrin forces are not assigned to this target without a tract-specific locator." ], "victims": [ "Albanian civilians in the suppressed border communities, including communities subjected to burned villages, massacres, and flight." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The two-month operation has a bounded geography, affected population, and coerced departure mechanism. Greek participation is limited to the sourced sub-tract, while other Serbian and Montenegrin campaigns and onward movement are excluded.", "disputes": "The chapter does not supply a complete village and household roster, exact first-departure dates and destinations, property-by-property outcomes, livelihood effects, or a uniform formal legal order.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Military suppression and violence causing Albanian civilian removal from bounded Kosovo-border and Ohrid/Debar village tracts", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-balkan-serbian-albanian-border-suppression-1913::SRC-01", "title": "Edvin Pezo, Violence, Forced Migration, and Population Policies during and after the Balkan Wars, chapter 3 in The Balkan Wars from Contemporary Perception to Historic Memory, opened printed pp. 57-59 and 65-75; Eyal Ginio, From Cisr-i Mustafa Pasa to Svilengrad: The Ethnic Homogenization of a Thracian Town in the Balkan Wars, opened printed pp. 276-277 and 287-298; Carnegie Endowment International Commission, Report of the International Commission to Inquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars (1914), opened chapter II section 1 pp. 71-78, chapter II section 3 pp. 96-108, chapter III section 2 pp. 124-135, and chapter IV section 1 pp. 148-149. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-44642-4_3", "locator": "Pezo chapter record, printed pp. 57-80 and abstract" }, { "id": "prospective-balkan-serbian-albanian-border-suppression-1913::SRC-02", "title": "Edvin Pezo, Violence, Forced Migration, and Population Policies during and after the Balkan Wars, chapter 3 in The Balkan Wars from Contemporary Perception to Historic Memory, opened printed pp. 57-59 and 65-75; Eyal Ginio, From Cisr-i Mustafa Pasa to Svilengrad: The Ethnic Homogenization of a Thracian Town in the Balkan Wars, opened printed pp. 276-277 and 287-298; Carnegie Endowment International Commission, Report of the International Commission to Inquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars (1914), opened chapter II section 1 pp. 71-78, chapter II section 3 pp. 96-108, chapter III section 2 pp. 124-135, and chapter IV section 1 pp. 148-149. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-319-44642-4_3.pdf", "locator": "Attempted direct chapter PDF" }, { "id": "prospective-balkan-serbian-albanian-border-suppression-1913::SRC-03", "title": "Edvin Pezo, Violence, Forced Migration, and Population Policies during and after the Balkan Wars, chapter 3 in The Balkan Wars from Contemporary Perception to Historic Memory, opened printed pp. 57-59 and 65-75; Eyal Ginio, From Cisr-i Mustafa Pasa to Svilengrad: The Ethnic Homogenization of a Thracian Town in the Balkan Wars, opened printed pp. 276-277 and 287-298; Carnegie Endowment International Commission, Report of the International Commission to Inquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars (1914), opened chapter II section 1 pp. 71-78, chapter II section 3 pp. 96-108, chapter III section 2 pp. 124-135, and chapter IV section 1 pp. 148-149. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://ndl.ethernet.edu.et/bitstream/123456789/70532/1/79.pdf.pdf", "locator": "Pezo chapter 3, printed pp. 66-67 and 70, especially notes 30-33 and 47" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-balkan-wars-ethnic-cleansing" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign a departure by its pre-suppression village in the Kosovo-border or Ohrid/Debar tract and September-October 1913 cause; record Greek participation only for Ohrid/Debar, and exclude other Serbian-occupied Macedonia, Montenegrin operations, and onward movement into Albania.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_023", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 80.7043179456, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4867736377, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 39.284734424, "unknown_bound_high": 90.6073706546 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 8.7587176228, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7771914849, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 6.8072007552, "unknown_bound_high": 29.0880522634 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 45.1706554375, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.9518198708, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.8835486404, "unknown_bound_high": 74.1208628157 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1145660818, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 88.5433918183 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-balkan-greek-kukush-bulgarian-expulsion-1913", "name": "Greek destruction and Bulgarian exodus from Kukush to the Bulgarian frontier", "start": 1913, "end": 1913, "date_label": "1913 CE", "operative_date_start": 1913, "operative_date_end": 1913, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The campaign began with the Greek entry into Kukush on 4 July 1913 and continued during the northward advance; the opened section does not assign one end day to all village destruction.", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "Deliberate burning of Kukush and Bulgarian villages, killings, sexual violence, pillage, and the resulting mass flight of villagers into Bulgaria.", "agents": [ "Greek army, including cavalry and infantry detachments, with bashi-bazouk participation under Greek troop protection in some localities." ], "victims": [ "Bulgarian civilians of Kukush and Bulgarian villages along the Greek northward line of advance." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "One military advance, affected settlement cohort, direction, and July 1913 land-clearance sequence define the event. The later Strumnitsa movement has different actors, tract, and mechanism and is excluded from this count.", "disputes": "The opened section does not establish one universal destruction order, a single end day for the corridor, or a complete household-level denominator. A blind coder can use the supported campaign facts and leave those narrower command, chronology, and magnitude constructs unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Greek military advance, destruction of Bulgarian settlements, and forced exodus toward the Bulgarian frontier", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-balkan-greek-kukush-bulgarian-expulsion-1913::SRC-01", "title": "Edvin Pezo, Violence, Forced Migration, and Population Policies during and after the Balkan Wars, chapter 3 in The Balkan Wars from Contemporary Perception to Historic Memory, opened printed pp. 57-59 and 65-75; Eyal Ginio, From Cisr-i Mustafa Pasa to Svilengrad: The Ethnic Homogenization of a Thracian Town in the Balkan Wars, opened printed pp. 276-277 and 287-298; Carnegie Endowment International Commission, Report of the International Commission to Inquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars (1914), opened chapter II section 1 pp. 71-78, chapter II section 3 pp. 96-108, chapter III section 2 pp. 124-135, and chapter IV section 1 pp. 148-149. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Report_of_the_International_commission_to_inquire_into_the_causes_and_conduct_of_the_Balkan_wars_%28IA_cu31924011526914%29.pdf", "locator": "The public PDF opened successfully, and chapter II section 3 at printed pp. 97-106 contains the July 4 Greek entry into Kukush, deliberate town burning, destruction of Bulgarian villages along the northward advance, and refugee flight toward Bulgaria." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-balkan-wars-ethnic-cleansing" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign each household once by its Bulgarian-origin settlement burned or abandoned during the July 1913 Greek advance; exclude Greek/Patriarchist settlers moved from Strumnitsa, the Strumnitsa Muslim exodus, and later border-exchange movements.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_023", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "settler_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.4141537844, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9059301142, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 81.9089046622, "unknown_bound_high": 91.3158932433 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 3.5304926525, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7379878289, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 2.6054606077, "unknown_bound_high": 28.8066777158 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 50.9804454801, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 86.0940476491 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5647834195, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 56.478341948, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 38.9682227712, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7630974693, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 29.7365521788, "unknown_bound_high": 53.4268052514 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 36.0298581849, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 87.2512720817 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-balkan-greek-strumnitsa-muslim-exodus-1913", "name": "Greek-ordered Muslim exodus from Strumnitsa", "start": 1913, "end": 1913, "date_label": "1913 CE", "operative_date_start": 1913, "operative_date_end": 1913, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Emigration began about 10 August 1913; systematic burning occurred 21-23 August; Greek evacuation occurred 27 August.", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "Explicit military order to abandon homes and emigrate to Greek territory, threat of house burning, forced eviction of those who remained, and systematic burning of vacated quarters.", "agents": [ "Greek military authorities and Greek soldiers in Strumnitsa." ], "victims": [ "Muslim inhabitants of Strumnitsa town and neighboring villages; the separately described Greek/Patriarchist branch is held because the source characterizes it as partly voluntary." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source distinguishes compelled Muslim departure from the more mixed Greek and Patriarchist movement and supplies a day-level sequence. That actor, cohort, mechanism, and tract boundary supports an independent removal event.", "disputes": "The passage does not provide a complete Muslim household count, a terminal return history, or operation-specific labor and economic arrangements after departure. Those constructs can be coded unknown while the ordered removal and property-destruction sequence remains directly supported.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Greek-ordered and force-backed removal of Muslim residents from the Strumnitsa tract", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-balkan-greek-strumnitsa-muslim-exodus-1913::SRC-01", "title": "Edvin Pezo, Violence, Forced Migration, and Population Policies during and after the Balkan Wars, chapter 3 in The Balkan Wars from Contemporary Perception to Historic Memory, opened printed pp. 57-59 and 65-75; Eyal Ginio, From Cisr-i Mustafa Pasa to Svilengrad: The Ethnic Homogenization of a Thracian Town in the Balkan Wars, opened printed pp. 276-277 and 287-298; Carnegie Endowment International Commission, Report of the International Commission to Inquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars (1914), opened chapter II section 1 pp. 71-78, chapter II section 3 pp. 96-108, chapter III section 2 pp. 124-135, and chapter IV section 1 pp. 148-149. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Report_of_the_International_commission_to_inquire_into_the_causes_and_conduct_of_the_Balkan_wars_%28IA_cu31924011526914%29.pdf", "locator": "The public PDF opened successfully, and chapter II section 3 at printed pp. 106-108 contains the explicit Greek military order, the distinction between Muslim compulsion and the more voluntary Greek branch, and the August 10, 21-23, and 27 sequence." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-balkan-wars-ethnic-cleansing" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign only Muslim departures caused by the Greek order or forced eviction in the Strumnitsa tract; exclude the partly voluntary Greek/Patriarchist movement, prior 1912 violence, Kukush Bulgarian departures, and later onward migration.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_023", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 89.1831797891, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8951170479, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.8293846128, "unknown_bound_high": 90.3176798254 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 11.7078846097, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 11.7078846097, "unknown_bound_high": 11.7078846097 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 80.1238145571, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.1238145571, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 20.3153869016, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.3153869016, "unknown_bound_high": 20.3153869016 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-balkan-ottoman-bulgarian-village-removal-1913", "name": "Ottoman-offensive destruction and displacement at Boulgar-Keui and Pichman-Keui", "start": 1913, "end": 1913, "date_label": "1913 CE", "operative_date_start": 1913, "operative_date_end": 1913, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "July 1913; the Carnegie account reports events across 2-29 July in the chronology it reproduces, without a single harmonized calendar date for every act.", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "Military entry followed by organized killing of male residents, sexual violence, plunder, destruction, and dispersal or flight of survivors.", "agents": [ "Ottoman military authorities and troops during the eastern Thrace offensive, with Greek auxiliaries reported in some acts." ], "victims": [ "Bulgarian villagers of Boulgar-Keui and Pichman-Keui, including survivors dispersed as refugees." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Mutually corroborated accounts support one neighboring-village episode within the July 1913 offensive. Restricting the unit to Boulgar-Keui and Pichman-Keui avoids generalizing the actor mix or sequence to unsourced localities.", "disputes": "The report presents differing victim totals and a chronology extending across several July dates, and it does not resolve every participant or survivor destination. A coder can retain those uncertainties without generalizing the episode to other eastern-Thrace villages.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Ottoman-offensive killing, settlement destruction, and forced removal of survivors from two named Bulgarian villages", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-balkan-ottoman-bulgarian-village-removal-1913::SRC-01", "title": "Edvin Pezo, Violence, Forced Migration, and Population Policies during and after the Balkan Wars, chapter 3 in The Balkan Wars from Contemporary Perception to Historic Memory, opened printed pp. 57-59 and 65-75; Eyal Ginio, From Cisr-i Mustafa Pasa to Svilengrad: The Ethnic Homogenization of a Thracian Town in the Balkan Wars, opened printed pp. 276-277 and 287-298; Carnegie Endowment International Commission, Report of the International Commission to Inquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars (1914), opened chapter II section 1 pp. 71-78, chapter II section 3 pp. 96-108, chapter III section 2 pp. 124-135, and chapter IV section 1 pp. 148-149. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Report_of_the_International_commission_to_inquire_into_the_causes_and_conduct_of_the_Balkan_wars_%28IA_cu31924011526914%29.pdf", "locator": "The public PDF opened successfully, and chapter III section 2 at printed pp. 130-133 contains the named Boulgar-Keui and Pichman-Keui episode, its July chronology, neighboring-village boundary, and mutually corroborating witness and document discussion." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-balkan-wars-ethnic-cleansing" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign a survivor departure once by residence in Boulgar-Keui or Pichman-Keui during the July 1913 Ottoman offensive; exclude other eastern Thrace villages, the Mustapha Pasha episode, Western Thrace militia removals, and later treaty exchange.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_023", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.8293846128, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.8293846128, "unknown_bound_high": 79.8293846128 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 7.4498343956, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9137385335, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.8072007552, "unknown_bound_high": 15.4333474083 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 80.1238145571, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.1238145571, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 54.0484399896, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.805466382, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.5342014121, "unknown_bound_high": 62.9875632104 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-balkan-cisr-mustafa-pasa-jewish-return-exclusion-1913-1914", "name": "Local obstruction of Jewish return to Cisr-i Mustafa Pasa", "start": 1913, "end": 1914, "date_label": "1913–1914 CE", "operative_date_start": 1913, "operative_date_end": 1914, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Partial Jewish return began in April-May 1913; obstruction, renewed departure, and refugee limbo continued through the final Bulgarian takeover and into 1914. The article does not give one terminal day.", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "Return obstruction and renewed displacement through arson, looting or occupation of property, harassment, and local exclusion across successive regime changes.", "agents": [ "Local Bulgarian irregulars, residents, and gangs who burned Jewish property, appropriated homes, harassed returnees, or prevented return; central Bulgarian authorities are expressly not assigned as sponsors because they at points ordered protection and investigated arson." ], "victims": [ "Jewish families of Cisr-i Mustafa Pasa who attempted to return after their 1912 flight or remained displaced in Edirne and elsewhere." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Blocked return is independently territorial even though the initial 1912 anticipatory flight is excluded. The bounded row preserves the source's distinction between local exclusion, central protective policy, and separate state-managed exchanges.", "disputes": "The article gives several family and population figures but not one complete household denominator for the bounded blocked-return episode, and it does not establish a structured labor regime. It also leaves individual perpetrators unnamed; those facts should remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Local obstruction of Jewish household return and renewed coerced departure from Cisr-i Mustafa Pasa homes", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-balkan-cisr-mustafa-pasa-jewish-return-exclusion-1913-1914::SRC-01", "title": "Edvin Pezo, Violence, Forced Migration, and Population Policies during and after the Balkan Wars, chapter 3 in The Balkan Wars from Contemporary Perception to Historic Memory, opened printed pp. 57-59 and 65-75; Eyal Ginio, From Cisr-i Mustafa Pasa to Svilengrad: The Ethnic Homogenization of a Thracian Town in the Balkan Wars, opened printed pp. 276-277 and 287-298; Carnegie Endowment International Commission, Report of the International Commission to Inquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars (1914), opened chapter II section 1 pp. 71-78, chapter II section 3 pp. 96-108, chapter III section 2 pp. 124-135, and chapter IV section 1 pp. 148-149. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020743823000788", "locator": "The DOI resolves to the full Ginio article, and the section on the local Jewish community corresponding to printed pp. 293-297 exposes the April-May 1913 return attempts, local obstruction, renewed displacement, property claims, and 1914 refugee limbo." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-balkan-wars-ethnic-cleansing" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Count one exclusion episode per Jewish household whose attempted return was blocked or whose renewed departure followed local exclusion; exclude the initial anticipatory 1912 flight, central Bulgarian protective measures, Muslim/Bulgarian treaty exchange, and later voluntary onward migration.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_023", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 34.0612647148, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.0612647148, "unknown_bound_high": 34.0612647148 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 5.9164707234, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7276097902, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 4.3048820216, "unknown_bound_high": 31.5439030053 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 74.4013147875, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.4013147875, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 16.9111118478, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.9111118478, "unknown_bound_high": 16.9111118478 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 19.2358592503, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3583525938, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.8932200557, "unknown_bound_high": 71.0579606788 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 62.5, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 62.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-bosnia-bosnian-serb-common-plan-1991-1995", "name": "Bosnian Serb common plan to remove Muslims and Croats from claimed territory", "start": 1991, "end": 1995, "date_label": "1991–1995 CE", "operative_date_start": 1991, "operative_date_end": 1995, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "October 1991 through 30 November 1995 for the common plan; most municipal crimes occurred April-October 1992 and continued through the conflict.", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "Planned military takeovers and systematic forced movement through attacks, limited-time expulsion orders, truck/bus/train transport, arrest and detention, killings, cruel treatment, sexual violence, discriminatory measures, destruction, coercion, and terror-induced flight.", "agents": [ "Bosnian Serb leadership, Serb Forces, and Bosnian Serb political and governmental organs implementing the Variant A/B structures and Strategic Goals." ], "victims": [ "Bosnian Muslims and Bosnian Croats lawfully present in the targeted municipalities." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "One adjudicated plan, actor structure, protected cohorts, claimed geography, and outer dates support a program-level event. Municipal crimes are nested implementations and must replace rather than duplicate the program if later subdivided.", "disputes": "The located synthesis paragraphs do not supply a bounded labor or economic regime and intentionally aggregate municipal implementations under the adjudicated common plan. Municipality-specific counts, sequences, and economic effects must remain unknown unless separately authorized later.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Adjudicated Bosnian Serb common plan to remove Muslims and Croats from claimed municipal territory", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-bosnia-bosnian-serb-common-plan-1991-1995::SRC-01", "title": "United Nations Commission of Experts, S/1994/674/Add.2, volume I, annex IV, opened paragraphs 83-88 at printed pp. 17-18 and the corresponding Summary and Conclusions body; ICTY, Prosecutor v. Radovan Karadzic, Trial Judgment, opened paragraphs 3439-3447 at printed pp. 1296-1298; ICTY, Prlic et al., Trial Judgment volume IV, opened paragraphs 41-45 and 65-68 at printed pp. 15-16 and 23-24; ICTY, Prlic et al., Appeal Judgment volume I part 1, opened paragraphs 2-3, 46-47, and 55-56 at printed pp. 1-2, 20-21, and 24-25; UNHCR, Report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 1994, opened section G.3(a) paragraphs 148-150 and G.3(b) paragraphs 157-158; UNHCR, Sadako Ogata statement of 16 January 1996, opened return, relocation, and reintegration passages. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://www.icty.org/x/cases/karadzic/tjug/en/160324_judgement.pdf", "locator": "The ICTY PDF opened successfully, and paragraphs 3439-3447 at printed pp. 1296-1298 state the common-plan boundary, strategic municipal geography, October 1991 to 30 November 1995 dates, protected groups, implementing organs, and forced-removal pattern." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-bosnia-war-ethnic-cleansing" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign a person once to the first coerced departure from a residence in one of the adjudicated Bosnian Serb-claimed municipalities under this common plan; exclude HVO/HZ(R) H-B conduct, Bosnian-government-force violations, later onward displacement, and postwar return or relocation.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_024", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 95.2724915577, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9322944446, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.8220146003, "unknown_bound_high": 95.5925701426 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 19.3982446485, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7893720798, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 15.3124327231, "unknown_bound_high": 36.375224741 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 75.0738293897, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75.0738293897, "unknown_bound_high": 75.0738293897 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 81.6173158606, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 41.9879900241, "unknown_bound_high": 90.5430367303 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 36.0298581849, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.9441583128, "unknown_bound_high": 85.8953390473 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-bosnia-hvo-herceg-bosna-muslim-removal-1993-1994", "name": "HVO/Herceg-Bosna program against Bosnian Muslims", "start": 1993, "end": 1994, "date_label": "1993–1994 CE", "operative_date_start": 1993, "operative_date_end": 1994, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "No earlier than mid-January 1993 through April 1994; the judgments reject a common criminal design before mid-January 1993.", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "Military campaigns and an integrated deportation system using civilian removal and detention, killings and property destruction during attacks, eviction and mistreatment, abusive confinement, forced labor or human shields, and release conditioned on detainees and families leaving HZ(R) H-B territory.", "agents": [ "Political and military leaders of HZ(R) H-B, leaders of the HVO, HVO forces and apparatus, the accused members of the JCE, and certain leaders from Croatia as found by the judgments." ], "victims": [ "Bosnian Muslim civilians and detainees in the HZ(R) H-B campaign areas." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The judgments establish a separate institution, common purpose, target population, geography, and later start from the Bosnian Serb program. The bounded program remains the counted unit unless locality children expressly replace it.", "disputes": "The synthesis paragraphs support the program level but do not enumerate every municipality, detention site, victim total, or release-to-departure sequence. Those locality and magnitude details can remain unknown without splitting or duplicating the bounded program.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "HVO and Herceg-Bosna program of territorial removal and detention-to-departure against Bosnian Muslims", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-bosnia-hvo-herceg-bosna-muslim-removal-1993-1994::SRC-01", "title": "United Nations Commission of Experts, S/1994/674/Add.2, volume I, annex IV, opened paragraphs 83-88 at printed pp. 17-18 and the corresponding Summary and Conclusions body; ICTY, Prosecutor v. Radovan Karadzic, Trial Judgment, opened paragraphs 3439-3447 at printed pp. 1296-1298; ICTY, Prlic et al., Trial Judgment volume IV, opened paragraphs 41-45 and 65-68 at printed pp. 15-16 and 23-24; ICTY, Prlic et al., Appeal Judgment volume I part 1, opened paragraphs 2-3, 46-47, and 55-56 at printed pp. 1-2, 20-21, and 24-25; UNHCR, Report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 1994, opened section G.3(a) paragraphs 148-150 and G.3(b) paragraphs 157-158; UNHCR, Sadako Ogata statement of 16 January 1996, opened return, relocation, and reintegration passages. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://www.icty.org/x/cases/prlic/tjug/en/130529-4.pdf", "locator": "The ICTY PDF opened successfully, and paragraphs 41-45 and 65-68 at printed pp. 15-16 and 23-24 set the no-earlier-than-mid-January 1993 boundary and describe the HZ(R) H-B/HVO common plan, campaign stages, actor structure, and integrated deportation system." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-bosnia-war-ethnic-cleansing" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign a person once to the first HVO/HZ(R) H-B-caused departure or detention-to-departure sequence in the named tract after mid-January 1993; exclude Bosnian Serb common-plan removals, Bosnian-government-force violations, pre-JCE incidents unless separately sourced, onward movement, and postwar return or relocation.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_024", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 95.2724915577, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9322944446, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 88.8220146003, "unknown_bound_high": 95.5925701426 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 17.2453671179, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7893720798, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 13.6130113091, "unknown_bound_high": 34.6758033271 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 75.0738293897, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7813027371, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 58.6553883868, "unknown_bound_high": 80.5251146767 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 80.5797039851, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 51.8271669414, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5092749931 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-croatia-sao-rsk-non-serb-removal-1991-1995", "name": "SAO Krajina/RSK removal of Croats and other non-Serbs", "start": 1991, "end": 1995, "date_label": "1991–1995 CE", "operative_date_start": 1991, "operative_date_end": 1995, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "From at least August 1991 through 1995; the judgment identifies the initial Kijevo attack and ultimatum in August 1991, early attack phase through early 1992, and pervasive coercion in RSK territory from 1992 to 1995.", "region": "Europe", "mechanism": "Widespread and systematic armed attacks, killing and removal, violence and intimidation, detention, property crimes, direct MUP deportation, organized bus transport under a coercive atmosphere, and opposition to refugee return, implementing the common purpose of an ethnically Serb territory.", "agents": [ "SAO Krajina and later RSK leadership, government, MUP/police and Territorial Defence forces; JNA forces acting in cooperation; identified JCE participants and supporting structures in Serbia and Republika Srpska; local Serb perpetrators where documented." ], "victims": [ "Croats and other non-Serb residents of SAO Krajina and later RSK territory in Croatia." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The judgment supplies a common purpose, institutional actor network, target population, Croatian territory, and removal mechanisms. Excluding Bosnian origins, Operation Storm departures, onward movement, and later return separates the program from adjacent events.", "disputes": "The cited paragraphs support the Croatia-origin program but do not define an operation-wide labor regime or provide a complete victim denominator. Conduct originating in Bosnia, Operation Storm departures, onward displacement, and later restoration processes remain outside this evidence boundary.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "SAO Krajina and RSK territorial project removing Croats and other non-Serbs from controlled Croatian territory", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-croatia-sao-rsk-non-serb-removal-1991-1995::SRC-01", "title": "United Nations Commission of Experts, S/1994/674/Add.2, volume I, annex IV, opened paragraphs 83-88 at printed pp. 17-18 and the corresponding Summary and Conclusions body; ICTY, Prosecutor v. Milan Martic, Trial Judgment, opened paragraphs 129, 132, 151, 442-446, and 450-453 at printed pp. 44-45, 54, and 158-163; ICTY, Gotovina et al., Trial Judgment volume I, opened paragraphs 7-12 at printed pp. 10-11, and volume II, opened paragraph 1763 at printed p. 925 and paragraphs 2303-2315 at printed pp. 1171-1175; ICTY, Gotovina and Markac, Appeal Judgment, opened paragraphs 91-98 at printed pp. 31-34; UNHCR, Home again, 10 years after Croatia's Operation Storm, opened the displacement, return, and property-rights body. No additional work was used.", "url": "https://www.icty.org/x/cases/martic/tjug/en/070612.pdf", "locator": "The ICTY PDF opened successfully, and paragraphs 129, 132, 151, 442-446, and 450-453 at printed pp. 44-45, 54, and 158-163 establish the SAO Krajina/RSK institutional and territorial sequence, August 1991 onset, and forcible-removal common purpose." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-croatia-war-ethnic-cleansing" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign a person once to the first coerced departure from a residence in SAO Krajina/RSK-controlled Croatia under this project; exclude Bosnian-origin departures, Operation Storm-era Serb departures, onward displacement, and later return or property-restoration processes.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_025", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 90.9591940951, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8095732357, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.6381290803, "unknown_bound_high": 92.6808055102 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 21.4401729976, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7509006908, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 16.0994407141, "unknown_bound_high": 41.0093716372 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 65.6630250076, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7259279717, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 47.666626559, "unknown_bound_high": 75.0738293897 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.9288434819, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.2878236942, "unknown_bound_high": 90.398076524 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4615444095, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 53.845559047 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-baltic-june-1941-tristate-deportation", "name": "Coordinated Soviet deportation from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, 13-14 June 1941", "start": 1941, "end": 1941, "date_label": "1941 CE", "operative_date_start": 1941, "operative_date_end": 1941, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Latvian operation account fixes the night of 13-14 June 1941 and identifies simultaneous action in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. The Serov instructions define the operational procedure. Follow-on arrests or transports not executed under this June operation are not assigned to this target.", "region": "Europe / Russia and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Nighttime household roundup and search under prepared files and routes; limited baggage; inventory and seizure or preservation of property; separation of family heads from families; guarded rail transport to camps and special settlements.", "agents": [ "USSR NKGB and NKVD leadership and transport/camp systems; republican Soviet security organs and operational groups in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania; and local officials or auxiliaries used in identification, roundup, inventory, and transport." ], "victims": [ "People classified by Soviet authorities as anti-Soviet or socially dangerous and their families, including former officials, police, military personnel, political and civic figures, landowners, merchants, and other listed categories; family heads were separated from accompanying relatives." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "A common operational instruction, simultaneous dates, agencies, target categories, and transport sequence define one tri-Baltic program. Later arrests, deportations, and post-1944 actions remain separate, preventing operation-level and household duplication.", "disputes": "The opened instructions describe operational procedure rather than a complete three-republic echelon roster, and the operation account is strongest for Latvia. Republic-specific totals, destinations, and labor assignments outside the cited material must remain unknown rather than be generalized across all households.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Coordinated Soviet household deportation from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania with family separation, rail removal, and territorial dispossession", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-baltic-june-1941-tristate-deportation::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://lvarhivs.gov.lv/dep1941/agram1.php?param=1", "locator": "The Latvian State Archive operation account and Serov instructions opened at the recorded routes, including instruction sections 1, 3-5, and 7; the operation account identifies the 14 June execution and tri-Baltic authorization, while the Estonian Commission page confirms Estonia's June 1941 branch." }, { "id": "prospective-baltic-june-1941-tristate-deportation::SRC-02", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://mnemosyne.ee/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/conclusions_en_1944-.pdf", "locator": "The Latvian State Archive operation account and Serov instructions opened at the recorded routes, including instruction sections 1, 3-5, and 7; the operation account identifies the 14 June execution and tri-Baltic authorization, while the Estonian Commission page confirms Estonia's June 1941 branch." }, { "id": "prospective-baltic-june-1941-tristate-deportation::SRC-03", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.lvarhivs.gov.lv/dep1941/aattels1.php?id=2001", "locator": "The Latvian State Archive operation account and Serov instructions opened at the recorded routes, including instruction sections 1, 3-5, and 7; the operation account identifies the 14 June execution and tri-Baltic authorization, while the Estonian Commission page confirms Estonia's June 1941 branch." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1900-1944", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-soviet-baltic-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include a household movement only when it was initiated in the 13-14 June 1941 coordinated operation. Record one household operation even though the family head and relatives followed different custody routes. Exclude later arrests, later deportation operations, camp-to-camp transfers, and post-1944 Baltic actions.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_028", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.3779261968, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.3779261968, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3779261968 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 61.750490266, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.845558026, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.2136226508, "unknown_bound_high": 67.6578200557 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4721932127, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.7906422818, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5713210164 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75.5760657032, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 48.6089322777, "unknown_bound_high": 84.2910403295 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-estonia-german-nationality-deportation-1945", "name": "Deportation of ethnic Germans from Estonia, 15 August 1945", "start": 1945, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1945 CE", "operative_date_start": 1945, "operative_date_end": 1945, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Estonian Commission gives the exact date 15 August 1945. It does not supply a multi-day operation window, so both year bounds remain 1945 and no narrower unsupported closing date is invented.", "region": "Europe / Russia and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Nationality-based forced deportation from Estonia into remote Soviet settlement or custody. The opened locator does not resolve a distinct property-seizure rule for this operation.", "agents": [ "Soviet occupation and Estonian SSR security authorities implementing the nationality-based deportation and the Soviet transport and special-settlement system." ], "victims": [ "At least 439 people identified as ethnic Germans in Estonia, including the family groupings encompassed by the operation." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The exact date, republic, nationality category, removal action, and affected minimum define a profileable operation distinct from Lithuanian German deportation and resistance-family campaigns. Later interior transfers are excluded.", "disputes": "The cited sentence does not identify the operation order, detailed implementing chain, transport route, property-disposition rule, labor assignment, precise destinations, or duration of exile for this German cohort. Those constructs can be coded unknown without conflating later Estonian deportations.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Soviet nationality-based deportation of ethnic German residents from Estonia on a separately ordered date", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-estonia-german-nationality-deportation-1945::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://mnemosyne.ee/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/conclusions_en_1944-.pdf", "locator": "The Estonian Commission PDF opened successfully, and section 8 at printed p. 9 contains the sentence beginning with 15 August 1945, the ethnic-German category, minimum count, Estonia origin, Soviet-interior destination, and collective-punishment characterization." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-soviet-baltic-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include only people removed from Estonia in the 15 August 1945 German-nationality action. Exclude German residents deported from Lithuania, other postwar nationality actions, and later transfers within the Soviet interior.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_028", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.0642803701, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9322944446, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 87.6956060222, "unknown_bound_high": 94.4661615645 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 33.4176382925, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3979025179, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2969624174, "unknown_bound_high": 73.5067106318 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 45.1706554375, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 22.3765200134, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6085441439, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 13.6171002151, "unknown_bound_high": 52.7626858246 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-lithuania-german-nationality-deportation-1945", "name": "Deportation of German residents from Lithuania to Siberia and Kazakhstan, 1945", "start": 1945, "end": 1945, "date_label": "1945 CE", "operative_date_start": 1945, "operative_date_end": 1945, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Lithuanian Commission resolves the action to 1945 but the opened body does not provide a complete exact-day window. The date therefore remains year-only.", "region": "Europe / Russia and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Nationality-based household deportation into Soviet exile. The opened commission conclusion establishes the movement and destinations but does not isolate a complete operation-specific property rule.", "agents": [ "USSR NKVD/NKGB and Lithuanian SSR security and administrative authorities directing arrest, transport, and exile." ], "victims": [ "1,048 Lithuania residents classified as Germans or members of German families by Soviet authorities." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The republic, affected category, 1945 interval, destinations, and removal mechanism distinguish this operation from Estonia's dated action and from anti-partisan or kulak deportations. Later interior transfers are excluded.", "disputes": "The opened conclusions do not provide an exact-day window, a named Lithuania-specific operation order, a destination roster below Siberia and Kazakhstan, an operation-specific property rule, labor assignments, or exile duration for this cohort. Those facts remain explicit unknowns.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Soviet nationality-based deportation of German residents from Lithuania to Siberian and Kazakh special-settlement destinations", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-lithuania-german-nationality-deportation-1945::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.komisija.lt/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Conclusions-ENG.pdf", "locator": "The Lithuanian Commission PDF opened successfully, and conclusions 2-4 at printed p. 1 identify the 1945 nationality-based German deportation, the 1,048-person total, Lithuania origin, Siberia and Kazakhstan destinations, general Soviet directives, and implementing security apparatus." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-soviet-baltic-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include only the 1945 German-resident branch originating in Lithuania. Exclude the 15 August Estonia branch, anti-partisan family deportations, later kulak operations, and onward transfers after exile.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_028", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 93.5718832655, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8608802024, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 80.5541818051, "unknown_bound_high": 94.4661615645 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 33.4176382925, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3979025179, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2969624174, "unknown_bound_high": 73.5067106318 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 52.8518157593, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.421568418, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 22.2806563592, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 27.6213365161, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4929920827, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.6171002151, "unknown_bound_high": 64.3178919483 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-lithuania-operation-vesna-1948", "name": "Operation Vesna deportation from Lithuania, 22-23 May 1948", "start": 1948, "end": 1948, "date_label": "1948 CE", "operative_date_start": 1948, "operative_date_end": 1948, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Lithuanian Archives exhibition states that the operation began on the night of 22 May and ended on the evening of 23 May 1948. Both target bounds are 1948.", "region": "Europe / Russia and Central Asia", "mechanism": "A centrally ordered, mass two-day household roundup using prepared lists, security troops, local transport, guarded echelons, and dispossession associated with removal and collectivization policy.", "agents": [ "USSR and Lithuanian SSR MGB authorities, operational troops, police, party-administrative personnel, and rail-transport units mobilized for Operation Vesna." ], "victims": [ "Lithuanian households placed on Soviet lists as families of resistance participants or supporters and families categorized as kulaks or otherwise subject to the May 1948 deportation order." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The named operation, Lithuania-only apparatus, two-day execution window, and pre-Priboi authorization make Vesna a coherent independent program. Earlier family deportations, later Priboi removals, and interior transfers are excluded.", "disputes": "The archive gives ranges rather than one reconciled final total and does not provide a household-by-household list or complete settlement roster in the opened introduction. Those finer magnitude and destination facts can remain unknown while the named operation remains fully bounded.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Operation Vesna's state-directed household deportation from Lithuania with confiscation and special-settlement removal", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-lithuania-operation-vesna-1948::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://virtualios-parodos.archyvai.lt/lt/virtualios-parodos/34/saltas-1948-uju-pavasaris/exh-85/saltas-1948-uju-pavasaris/case-443", "locator": "The Lithuanian Archives exhibition opened at its recorded route and states that Vesna began on the night of 22 May and ended on the evening of 23 May 1948; its introduction and captions expose the authorization, forces, echelons, destinations, confiscation, and affected-family evidence cited by the packet." }, { "id": "prospective-lithuania-operation-vesna-1948::SRC-02", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.komisija.lt/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Conclusions-ENG.pdf", "locator": "The Lithuanian Archives exhibition opened at its recorded route and states that Vesna began on the night of 22 May and ended on the evening of 23 May 1948; its introduction and captions expose the authorization, forces, echelons, destinations, confiscation, and affected-family evidence cited by the packet." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-soviet-baltic-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include removals executed under Operation Vesna on 22-23 May 1948. Exclude earlier 1945-1947 family deportations, people first removed under Priboi in 1949, later cleanup searches unless expressly tied to Vesna, and subsequent internal transfers.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_028", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.3779261968, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.3779261968, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3779261968 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 56.3908082646, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.9259243529, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 52.2136226508, "unknown_bound_high": 59.6211873628 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 80.1238145571, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4791232358, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.3891812932, "unknown_bound_high": 90.4768577157 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.1017363522, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.942527685, "unknown_bound_high": 75.6246357367 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2204881927, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 77.9511807345 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-baltic-operation-priboi-1949", "name": "Operation Priboi deportation from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, March-April 1949", "start": 1949, "end": 1949, "date_label": "1949 CE", "operative_date_start": 1949, "operative_date_end": 1949, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "USSR Council of Ministers resolution 390-138ss was issued on 29 January 1949. The principal simultaneous deportation ran 25-29 March; the Lithuanian exhibition documents additional April actions, including 10-20 April, and continued searches. The target includes only execution and cleanup demonstrably under the Priboi order and remains within 1949.", "region": "Europe / Russia and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Secret-resolution list preparation, armed household roundup, family deportation by rail, confiscation of farms and property, transfer of assets to collective-farm or state control, and exile to special settlements.", "agents": [ "USSR Council of Ministers, MGB and MVD leadership, republican security organs in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, operational troops, local party-administrative auxiliaries, and rail and special-settlement authorities." ], "victims": [ "Families categorized as kulaks and families of nationalists, partisans, or resistance supporters in the three Baltic republics, totaling roughly 95,000 people in the main tri-Baltic action according to the Estonian security-service review." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "One USSR resolution, common target categories, coordinated rail system, confiscation purpose, and synchronized execution define Priboi across three republics. Republican components are implementation attributes rather than additional events.", "disputes": "The exhibition gives its most detailed implementation evidence for Lithuania and notes searches extending beyond the principal March window. Republic-specific household lists and any cleanup action not demonstrably tied to Priboi must remain unknown or excluded rather than absorbed into the program.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Synchronized tri-Baltic Soviet deportation and property-confiscation operation against designated household categories", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-baltic-operation-priboi-1949::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://kapo.ee/sites/default/files/content_page_attachments/annual-review-2023-2024.pdf", "locator": "The Lithuanian Archives Priboi exhibition opened at the recorded route and exposes resolution 390-138ss, simultaneous tri-Baltic scope, 25-29 March execution, April continuation, categories, confiscation, rail removal, destinations, and demographic totals; the Estonian review PDF also opened at printed pp. 60-62." }, { "id": "prospective-baltic-operation-priboi-1949::SRC-02", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://virtualios-parodos.archyvai.lt/lt/virtualios-parodos-itraukios-istorijos/34/operacija-priboj-lya/exh-126/operacija-priboj/case-652", "locator": "The Lithuanian Archives Priboi exhibition opened at the recorded route and exposes resolution 390-138ss, simultaneous tri-Baltic scope, 25-29 March execution, April continuation, categories, confiscation, rail removal, destinations, and demographic totals; the Estonian review PDF also opened at printed pp. 60-62." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-soviet-baltic-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign each household once to Priboi when its deportation was authorized by resolution 390-138ss or a documented republican Priboi implementation/cleanup action. Republic components are attributes, not duplicate targets. Exclude Vesna, Osen, Sever, pre-1948 family deportations, and later camp or settlement transfers.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_028", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.3779261968, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.3779261968, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3779261968 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 64.0001016587, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.845558026, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.1157996192, "unknown_bound_high": 69.5599970241 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 80.1238145571, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5876989266, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.0886798134, "unknown_bound_high": 88.3187871495 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.1017363522, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.942527685, "unknown_bound_high": 75.6246357367 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2905197955, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.948020452 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-baltic-operation-sever-april-1951", "name": "Operation Sever deportation of Jehovah's Witness and related listed families from the Baltic republics, 31 March-1 April 1951", "start": 1951, "end": 1951, "date_label": "1951 CE", "operative_date_start": 1951, "operative_date_end": 1951, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Latvian museum fixes the Latvian Operation North action to 31 March 1951; the Lithuanian account places execution on the night of 31 March-1 April. USSR resolution 377-190ss of 13 February and MGB Order 00193 of 5 March supply the authorization sequence.", "region": "Europe / Russia and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Secret-resolution and MGB-order list compilation, family roundup, rail deportation, and permanent or indefinite special settlement based on religious affiliation and listed military-family status.", "agents": [ "USSR Council of Ministers, MGB leadership and republican security organs in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, with Soviet transport and special-settlement authorities." ], "victims": [ "Jehovah's Witnesses and their families in the Baltic republics; in Lithuania the same implementation materials also identify former Polish Anders Army personnel and families added to the deportation lists." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The authorization chain, named target lists, shared execution window, and republic implementation support one program. Religious and Anders-family subcategories remain attributes, while Osen, Priboi, and later persecution are excluded.", "disputes": "Individual rosters, household-level property inventories, exact destinations for every deportee, implementation conduct in every locality, deaths, and complete return histories remain unresolved despite domain-level support.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Operation Sever's overnight state deportation of Jehovah's Witness and related listed families from the Baltic republics", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-baltic-operation-sever-april-1951::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://mnemosyne.ee/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/conclusions_en_1944-.pdf", "locator": "Estonian International Commission conclusions, printed p. 9/PDF p. 8, section 8 'Deportations'" }, { "id": "prospective-baltic-operation-sever-april-1951::SRC-02", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://okupacijasmuzejs.lv/lv/ticet-un-kalpot", "locator": "Paragraph on Operation North, 31 March 1951" }, { "id": "prospective-baltic-operation-sever-april-1951::SRC-03", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://dspace.ut.ee/server/api/core/bitstreams/009bf065-1225-44ef-9f54-d38a68fe4afb/content", "locator": "University of Tartu full text, PDF pp. 33-34 and p. 132 table, Operation Sever discussion" }, { "id": "prospective-baltic-operation-sever-april-1951::SRC-04", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://eng.ipn.gov.pl/en/news/11259%2CThe-unveiling-of-a-plaque-commemorating-the-soldiers-of-the-2nd-Corps-of-the-Pol.html", "locator": "Paragraphs on the night of 31 March-1 April 1951 and deported Anders soldiers' families" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-soviet-baltic-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include a person once when removed in the 31 March-1 April 1951 Sever/North implementation under the cited resolution/order. Preserve religious and Anders-family subcategories as attributes. Exclude Osen, Priboi, later religious persecution without deportation, and onward Soviet transfers.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_028", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.3779261968, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.3779261968, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3779261968 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 64.0001016587, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.845558026, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.1157996192, "unknown_bound_high": 69.5599970241 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 58.1641181857, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8095829746, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.0886798134, "unknown_bound_high": 66.1303823575 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.1017363522, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.942527685, "unknown_bound_high": 75.6246357367 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 19.2358592503, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3583525938, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.8932200557, "unknown_bound_high": 71.0579606788 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-lithuania-operation-osen-1951", "name": "Operation Osen phased deportation from Lithuania, September-November 1951", "start": 1951, "end": 1951, "date_label": "1951 CE", "operative_date_start": 1951, "operative_date_end": 1951, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The opened dossier identifies USSR resolution 3309-1568ss of 5 September; a 20-21 September partisan-family phase; the principal 2-3 October action; and a 30 November cleanup. The complete bounded operation is therefore September-November 1951.", "region": "Europe / Russia and Central Asia", "mechanism": "Phased list-based household roundup and rail deportation, confiscation of agricultural and household property, and permanent special settlement tied to resistance suppression and collectivization.", "agents": [ "USSR Council of Ministers and state-security leadership; Lithuanian SSR MGB, party-administrative and local operational personnel; and rail and special-settlement authorities." ], "victims": [ "Lithuanian families classified as relatives or supporters of armed resistance and approximately 4,000 households categorized as kulaks, totaling 20,357 deportees in the cited dossier." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "One September authorization joins the principal, partisan-family, and cleanup phases despite execution over three months. Lithuania-only coverage and target categories distinguish Osen from April Sever and tri-Baltic Priboi.", "disputes": "The dossier URL itself is presently blocked, but the other two authorized targets expose the facts needed to distinguish supported anchors from unknowns. Household-level lists, full special-settlement assignments, and phase-specific victim breakdowns remain outside the opened evidence.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Operation Osen's phased state deportation and property removal of targeted Lithuanian households", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-lithuania-operation-osen-1951::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.genocid.lt/centras/lt/3421/a/", "locator": "The authorized virtual exhibit and Lithuanian Commission PDF opened and jointly verify the 20-21 September, 2-3 October, and 30 November phases, resolution 3309-1568ss of 5 September, actors, destinations, totals, categories, and confiscation. The separate dossier route was blocked by an access challenge." }, { "id": "prospective-lithuania-operation-osen-1951::SRC-02", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.genocid.lt/centras/lt/4719/a/", "locator": "The authorized virtual exhibit and Lithuanian Commission PDF opened and jointly verify the 20-21 September, 2-3 October, and 30 November phases, resolution 3309-1568ss of 5 September, actors, destinations, totals, categories, and confiscation. The separate dossier route was blocked by an access challenge." }, { "id": "prospective-lithuania-operation-osen-1951::SRC-03", "title": "Opened the cited Latvian State Archive Serov instructions at sections 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the linked June 1941 operation account; the Estonian International Commission Phase III conclusions at printed pages 8-9, section 8; the Lithuanian International Commission conclusions at pages 1-3, especially conclusions 2-10; the cited Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre deportation-data URL, whose public endpoint presented an access challenge, so no target fact rests solely on that endpoint; the Lithuanian Archives Operation Priboi exhibition introduction and order captions; and the Estonian Internal Security Service Annual Review 2023-2024 at printed pages 60-62. Four additional authoritative works were opened: the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Osen dossier and its linked documentary exhibit, treated as one work; the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia Operation Sever page; the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Centre Operation Sever/Anders print page; and the Lithuanian Archives Operation Vesna exhibition. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.komisija.lt/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Conclusions-ENG.pdf", "locator": "The authorized virtual exhibit and Lithuanian Commission PDF opened and jointly verify the 20-21 September, 2-3 October, and 30 November phases, resolution 3309-1568ss of 5 September, actors, destinations, totals, categories, and confiscation. The separate dossier route was blocked by an access challenge." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "eu-soviet-baltic-deportations" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign households once to Osen across its September, October, and November phases. Do not create three targets from the phased execution. Exclude Priboi, Sever, earlier anti-partisan deportations, and later movements within the special-settlement system.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_028", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 97.3779261968, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 97.3779261968, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3779261968 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 64.0001016587, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.845558026, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 54.1157996192, "unknown_bound_high": 69.5599970241 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.9256914734, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 7.4308526592 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3822795857, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 26.5467457162, "unknown_bound_high": 88.3187871495 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 62.1017363522, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6431789195, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.942527685, "unknown_bound_high": 75.6246357367 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1992918502, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.0708149825 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-magna-graecia-croton-foundation", "name": "Achaean foundation of Croton on an Iapygian-inhabited site", "start": -625, "end": -625, "date_label": "date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: med-greek-sicily-southern-italy-colonies", "date_resolution": "Strabo provides a relative foundation narrative but the opened locator does not supply an absolute year. Both date bounds remain honestly unknown.", "region": "Central Mediterranean", "mechanism": "Colonial foundation and occupation of a site that Strabo says was already inhabited by Iapyges; the opened passage does not resolve the exact acquisition, removal, or accommodation sequence.", "agents": [ "Myscellus and Achaean settlers, with Archias appearing in the foundation journey narrative." ], "victims": [ "Iapyges whom Strabo identifies as occupying Croton before the Achaean foundation, together with other unnamed users of the site and surrounding land." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source names the founder population, predecessor population, and occupied polis site, making the settlement territorial even though acquisition, accommodation, removal, and exact date remain scoring unknowns. Later Crotonian expansion and Sybaris's destruction are excluded.", "disputes": "The source gives no absolute foundation year, land-transfer procedure, evidence of violence or removal, legal or governing arrangement with the Iapyges, labor system, population count, or durability measure for the predecessor community. Those domains must remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Achaean colonial occupation and durable settlement of a Croton site directly described as already inhabited by Iapygians", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-magna-graecia-croton-foundation::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Strabo Geography VI.1 at section 2 and sections 12-15 and VI.2 at sections 2-4 and 6; Belvedere, Contatto culturale e interrelazioni tra Greci e indigeni nel territorio di Himera, printed page 61/PDF page 8; Herodotus 7.156.1-3 at the cited edition; and Diodorus 12.9-11, including 12.10.1-2, at the cited edition. Herodotus and Diodorus were used only to delimit the later Camarina, Gela, Megara Hyblaea, and Sybaris/Croton incidents. No additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Strabo/6A*.html", "locator": "The recorded Strabo Book VI chapter 1 page opened successfully, and section 12 contains the Croton foundation paragraph naming Myscellus, the Achaeans, Archias, and the Iapyges who lived at Croton in earlier times; it supplies relative sequence but no absolute year." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "med-greek-sicily-southern-italy-colonies" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include only the initial Achaean foundation and immediate site transition. Exclude Croton's later destruction of Sybaris, later Crotonian territorial expansion, and any settlement attributed to another polis.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_044", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": null, "primary_family_review": { "status": "EVIDENCE_HOLD", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": true, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 35.7117522629, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6574809113, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 23.4797954214, "unknown_bound_high": 57.7317042929 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 13.2036999027, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1440639353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.9021769684, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4957834391 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.144622213, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.8466659777, "unknown_bound_high": 96.3844446741 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7852540975, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 21.4745902503 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-magna-graecia-sybaris-foundation-chora", "name": "Achaean foundation of Sybaris and extension over neighboring communities", "start": -625, "end": -625, "date_label": "date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: med-greek-sicily-southern-italy-colonies", "date_resolution": "The opened Strabo passage supplies no absolute foundation or territorial-expansion dates. Both year fields remain null; the later Crotonian destruction is expressly outside this target.", "region": "Central Mediterranean", "mechanism": "Polis foundation followed by territorial and political subjection over neighboring tribes and cities; the opened locator does not disaggregate settlement, tribute, alliance, and coercion for each dependency.", "agents": [ "Achaean settlers led by Is of Helice and the Sybarite polity formed by them." ], "victims": [ "Four neighboring peoples or tribes and communities in twenty-five cities whom Strabo says Sybaris ruled; the passage does not name them individually." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The founder group, polis, dependent chora, neighboring peoples, and subject-city network support a coherent territorial formation. The sources do not disaggregate coercion for each dependency, so those dimensions remain unknown rather than blocking the event.", "disputes": "The four neighboring peoples and twenty-five subject cities are not named, the chronology is relative, and the passage does not disaggregate conquest, alliance, tribute, settlement, violence, or labor relations for any dependency. Those mechanisms must remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Achaean polis foundation followed by durable territorial subjection of neighboring peoples and cities in the Sybarite chora", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-magna-graecia-sybaris-foundation-chora::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Strabo Geography VI.1 at section 2 and sections 12-15 and VI.2 at sections 2-4 and 6; Belvedere, Contatto culturale e interrelazioni tra Greci e indigeni nel territorio di Himera, printed page 61/PDF page 8; Herodotus 7.156.1-3 at the cited edition; and Diodorus 12.9-11, including 12.10.1-2, at the cited edition. Herodotus and Diodorus were used only to delimit the later Camarina, Gela, Megara Hyblaea, and Sybaris/Croton incidents. No additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Strabo/6A*.html", "locator": "The recorded Strabo Book VI chapter 1 page opened successfully, and section 13 names the Achaean foundation, Is of Helice, rule over four neighboring tribes, and twenty-five subject cities; the paragraph gives no absolute foundation or expansion dates." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "med-greek-sicily-southern-italy-colonies" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include only the Achaean foundation and Sybarite chora/dependency formation described by Strabo. Exclude the later Crotonian destruction, Diodorus's restoration attempts, Thurii, and other successor settlements.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_044", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 37.6674514453, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8138744566, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 30.6565765763, "unknown_bound_high": 49.269130917 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5307116815, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 46.9288318535 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 67.268471581, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.0842158236, "unknown_bound_high": 93.1468948282 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 15.9790125587, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5991573487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.573942799, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6582079325 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-magna-graecia-siris-polieium-seizure", "name": "Ionian refugee seizure of Chonian Siris and establishment of Polieium", "start": -625, "end": -625, "date_label": "date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: med-greek-sicily-southern-italy-colonies", "date_resolution": "Strabo places the seizure after Ionian flight from Lydia but gives no absolute year in the opened passage. Both year bounds remain null.", "region": "Central Mediterranean", "mechanism": "Refugee movement followed by forceful occupation of a pre-existing Chonian city and establishment or renaming of the polis.", "agents": [ "Ionian refugees fleeing Lydia who occupied Siris and renamed or established the settlement as Polieium." ], "victims": [ "The Chones or Chonian inhabitants of the pre-existing city of Siris." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The source directly supplies incomer identity, predecessor population, forceful occupation, and named city transition. Later Tarentine-Thurian conflict and Heracleian foundation have different actors and mechanisms and remain outside this event.", "disputes": "The passage gives no absolute date, number of settlers or Chonian inhabitants, post-seizure demographic fate, property distribution, labor regime, or duration of the Polieium phase. Those constructs can be coded unknown without importing later Heracleian evidence.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Ionian refugee settlers forcibly seized a pre-existing Chonian city and established Polieium", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-magna-graecia-siris-polieium-seizure::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Strabo Geography VI.1 at section 2 and sections 12-15 and VI.2 at sections 2-4 and 6; Belvedere, Contatto culturale e interrelazioni tra Greci e indigeni nel territorio di Himera, printed page 61/PDF page 8; Herodotus 7.156.1-3 at the cited edition; and Diodorus 12.9-11, including 12.10.1-2, at the cited edition. Herodotus and Diodorus were used only to delimit the later Camarina, Gela, Megara Hyblaea, and Sybaris/Croton incidents. No additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Strabo/6A*.html", "locator": "The recorded Strabo Book VI chapter 1 page opened successfully, and section 14 states that Ionian colonists fleeing Lydian domination took by force the Chonian city of Siris and called it Polieium; it supplies relative sequence but no absolute year." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "med-greek-sicily-southern-italy-colonies" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include only the Ionian seizure and Polieium phase. Exclude the later Tarentine-Thurian conflict, compromise, and foundation of Heracleia, which require separate evidence and boundaries.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_044", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 12.3532341295, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.875222968, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.8118342392, "unknown_bound_high": 23.2895374393 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 6.7800880482, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6349301058, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 4.3048820216, "unknown_bound_high": 40.8118714444 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.0647509969, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.4750996917, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 18.683923421, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7089831509, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2465868986, "unknown_bound_high": 42.3482718065 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.573942799, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-magna-graecia-metapontium-achaean-resettlement", "name": "Achaean resettlement of abandoned Metapontium and boundary consolidation", "start": -625, "end": -625, "date_label": "date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: med-greek-sicily-southern-italy-colonies", "date_resolution": "The Strabo narrative is relative and does not state an absolute resettlement year. Both year fields remain null.", "region": "Central Mediterranean", "mechanism": "Strategic resettlement of an abandoned site to deny it to competing settlers, followed by armed conflict, reconciliation, and territorial boundary definition.", "agents": [ "Achaean settlers invited or deployed to resettle Metapontium, with Tarentines and neighboring Oenotrians involved in the boundary-conflict sequence." ], "victims": [ "Oenotrian land users and neighboring communities affected by Achaean occupation and the Tarentine-Oenotrian boundary settlement; the abandoned site's prior residents are not identified." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "Although the polis site was abandoned, the sourced program was not empty-land migration alone: it was designed to deny a rival claim and led to war, reconciliation, and boundary reallocation involving Tarentines and Oenotrians. That territorial sequence qualifies while prior-resident outcomes remain unknown.", "disputes": "The chronology is relative, the affected Oenotrian and Tarentine populations are not quantified, prior residents of the abandoned site are unknown, and the passage supplies no operation-specific labor system or long-term demographic outcome. Those facts remain explicit gaps.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Strategic Achaean resettlement, armed conflict with neighboring land users, and negotiated territorial boundary consolidation", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-magna-graecia-metapontium-achaean-resettlement::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Strabo Geography VI.1 at section 2 and sections 12-15 and VI.2 at sections 2-4 and 6; Belvedere, Contatto culturale e interrelazioni tra Greci e indigeni nel territorio di Himera, printed page 61/PDF page 8; Herodotus 7.156.1-3 at the cited edition; and Diodorus 12.9-11, including 12.10.1-2, at the cited edition. Herodotus and Diodorus were used only to delimit the later Camarina, Gela, Megara Hyblaea, and Sybaris/Croton incidents. No additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Strabo/6A*.html", "locator": "The recorded Strabo Book VI chapter 1 page opened successfully, and section 15 contains the Achaean resettlement of forsaken Metapontium, the strategic purpose of holding it against Tarentine claims, later war with Tarentines and Oenotrians, reconciliation, and boundary definition." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "med-greek-sicily-southern-italy-colonies" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include the Achaean resettlement and directly connected boundary settlement only. Exclude Siris/Polieium, Heracleia, Taras's independent foundation, and later Metapontine history.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_044", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 44.2591031964, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.2591031964, "unknown_bound_high": 44.2591031964 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.083445444, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6959189414, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 7.0172606788, "unknown_bound_high": 37.4253665417 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 75.8422757304, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.5150684828, "unknown_bound_high": 93.1468948282 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.578431582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 42.1568418022 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 10.2128251614, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.2128251614, "unknown_bound_high": 10.2128251614 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 43.4487166617, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2203504162, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.573942799, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5389011808 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-sicily-himera-foundation-chora", "name": "Zanclaean foundation of Himera and locally differentiated chora formation", "start": -625, "end": -625, "date_label": "date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: med-greek-sicily-southern-italy-colonies", "date_resolution": "Neither opened locator supplies a complete absolute foundation-to-chora date range. Both year bounds remain null rather than importing an uncited conventional chronology.", "region": "Central Mediterranean", "mechanism": "Polis foundation followed by heterogeneous chora formation: pressure for land and labor, conflict, elite and religious interaction, and military control at different localities rather than one uniform displacement sequence.", "agents": [ "Zanclaeans from Mylae who founded Himera; Himeran settlers, elites, and military authorities involved in the chora; and Indigenous elites or communities participating in or resisting local arrangements." ], "victims": [ "Indigenous communities in the Himeran territory, including communities represented at Colle Madore and Endesa, as well as laboring populations affected by settler demographic and agricultural demand." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The polis foundation and chora-specific archaeology jointly establish a territorial formation affecting Indigenous communities. Local heterogeneity is preserved in scoring rather than flattened into a uniform displacement claim or split into unsupported micro-events.", "disputes": "Neither opened body supplies complete absolute dates, a parcel-by-parcel land transfer, a uniform Indigenous displacement sequence, population totals, a formal legal regime, or measured long-term demographic outcomes.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Zanclaean polis foundation followed by locally documented land and labor pressure, conflict, elite interaction, and military control in the Himeran chora", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-sicily-himera-foundation-chora::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Strabo Geography VI.1 at section 2 and sections 12-15 and VI.2 at sections 2-4 and 6; Belvedere, Contatto culturale e interrelazioni tra Greci e indigeni nel territorio di Himera, printed page 61/PDF page 8; Herodotus 7.156.1-3 at the cited edition; and Diodorus 12.9-11, including 12.10.1-2, at the cited edition. Herodotus and Diodorus were used only to delimit the later Camarina, Gela, Megara Hyblaea, and Sybaris/Croton incidents. No additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344620833_3_Contatto_culturale_e_interrelazioni_tra_Greci_e_indigeni_nel_territorio_di_Himera", "locator": "Belvedere, printed p. 61, paragraphs on labor pressure, local interaction and conflict, and military control" }, { "id": "prospective-sicily-himera-foundation-chora::SRC-02", "title": "Opened the cited Strabo Geography VI.1 at section 2 and sections 12-15 and VI.2 at sections 2-4 and 6; Belvedere, Contatto culturale e interrelazioni tra Greci e indigeni nel territorio di Himera, printed page 61/PDF page 8; Herodotus 7.156.1-3 at the cited edition; and Diodorus 12.9-11, including 12.10.1-2, at the cited edition. Herodotus and Diodorus were used only to delimit the later Camarina, Gela, Megara Hyblaea, and Sybaris/Croton incidents. No additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://iris.unipa.it/handle/10447/50492", "locator": "University of Palermo publication record and abstract" }, { "id": "prospective-sicily-himera-foundation-chora::SRC-03", "title": "Opened the cited Strabo Geography VI.1 at section 2 and sections 12-15 and VI.2 at sections 2-4 and 6; Belvedere, Contatto culturale e interrelazioni tra Greci e indigeni nel territorio di Himera, printed page 61/PDF page 8; Herodotus 7.156.1-3 at the cited edition; and Diodorus 12.9-11, including 12.10.1-2, at the cited edition. Herodotus and Diodorus were used only to delimit the later Camarina, Gela, Megara Hyblaea, and Sybaris/Croton incidents. No additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Geography_of_Strabo/Book_6", "locator": "Strabo, Geography VI.2.6, sentence stating that Zanclaeans of Mylae founded Himera" } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "med-greek-sicily-southern-italy-colonies" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include Himera's foundation and evidence specifically located in its chora. Do not count Colle Madore or Endesa as separate event targets in this pass, and exclude Zancle/Mylae foundation, later Himera destruction, and interactions outside the Himeran territory.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_044", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 39.212714081, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7317262251, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 28.6929712502, "unknown_bound_high": 55.5203487408 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 10.051306606, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3997804966, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.0183163464, "unknown_bound_high": 64.0402666864 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.2936935502, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.657355318, "unknown_bound_high": 91.2891816634 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 12.3313776076, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.6687950425, "unknown_bound_high": 81.0264844472 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 10.2128251614, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.2128251614, "unknown_bound_high": 10.2128251614 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 24.6764385272, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7027097709, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 17.3403744629, "unknown_bound_high": 47.0693973778 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-mentese-caria-polity-tract", "name": "Menteşe consolidation and settlement in the Carian Balat-Milas-Muğla tract", "start": 1352, "end": 1352, "date_label": "date unresolved", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "nearest reviewed parent midpoint used only as a model coordinate: medieval-beylik-ottoman-anatolian-settlement", "date_resolution": "Turgut places Menteşe formation in the later thirteenth-century conquest of Caria and Grant documents Balat activity, including a 1355 captive transaction, but the opened locators do not establish one exact start or closure for the full tract. Both year bounds remain null.", "region": "Anatolia", "mechanism": "Military conquest and Turkmen movement into the Carian tract, formation of a distinct principality, reorganization of land and endowed property through vakıf and dynastic institutions, and port-linked captive commerce at Balat.", "agents": [ "Menteşe and Sasan lineages, affiliated Turkmen groups and military followers, Menteşe rulers and local officeholders, vakıf founders, and merchants operating through Balat." ], "victims": [ "Byzantine/Romaioi and Greek-speaking inhabitants and landholders in Caria, local Christian communities, and captives brought to or traded through Menteşe ports; the sources do not provide a tract-wide displaced-person total." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The polity-specific locality list, conquest history, property institutions, surviving resident communities, and Balat captive evidence support one tract-level transformation. Neighboring beyliks and captives merely passing through are excluded to prevent regional overlap.", "disputes": "The locators do not establish exact start and end years for the full tract, a tract-wide displaced or captive population, or a bounded demographic replacement rate. Those demographic and durability facts must remain unknown rather than be inferred from later vakif revenue entries.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Menteşe conquest and Turkmen settlement in a finite Carian tract with institutional land reorganization and captive commerce", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-mentese-caria-polity-tract::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Alasdair C. Grant thesis at printed page 66 and pages 198-200; A. C. S. Peacock, Islam, Literature and Society in Mongol Anatolia, section The Formation of Islamic Anatolia, opening three paragraphs; Lazaridis et al., Medieval migrations into Anatolia and the Balkans and the Figure 4 discussion; and the Beihammer preview at pages 1 and 5-6 as a chronology boundary control. Three additional authoritative works were opened: Vedat Turgut on the Menteşe principality, especially printed pages 25-27 and 38-42; Raif Kaplanoğlu and Yusuf Kılıç on the non-Muslim population of Bursa and Bithynian settlement, especially printed pages 27-29 and the Bursa/Mudanya/Iznik/Izmit locality discussion; and Alasdair C. Grant, Byzantine Slavery and the Mediterranean World, especially printed pages 31-35 and 166-180. No fourth additional work was needed.", "url": "https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/759937", "locator": "Both public PDF routes opened. Turgut's printed pp. 25-27 and 38-42 resolved to the cited origin, Carian core-locality, polity, and vakif passages; Grant's printed pp. 177-178 resolved to the dated Balat captive transaction." }, { "id": "prospective-mentese-caria-polity-tract::SRC-02", "title": "Opened the cited Alasdair C. Grant thesis at printed page 66 and pages 198-200; A. C. S. Peacock, Islam, Literature and Society in Mongol Anatolia, section The Formation of Islamic Anatolia, opening three paragraphs; Lazaridis et al., Medieval migrations into Anatolia and the Balkans and the Figure 4 discussion; and the Beihammer preview at pages 1 and 5-6 as a chronology boundary control. Three additional authoritative works were opened: Vedat Turgut on the Menteşe principality, especially printed pages 25-27 and 38-42; Raif Kaplanoğlu and Yusuf Kılıç on the non-Muslim population of Bursa and Bithynian settlement, especially printed pages 27-29 and the Bursa/Mudanya/Iznik/Izmit locality discussion; and Alasdair C. Grant, Byzantine Slavery and the Mediterranean World, especially printed pages 31-35 and 166-180. No fourth additional work was needed.", "url": "https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/pub/media/ebooks/9781399523851.pdf", "locator": "Both public PDF routes opened. Turgut's printed pp. 25-27 and 38-42 resolved to the cited origin, Carian core-locality, polity, and vakif passages; Grant's printed pp. 177-178 resolved to the dated Balat captive transaction." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "medieval-beylik-ottoman-anatolian-settlement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include only actions and land arrangements within the listed Menteşe-administered Carian tract. Exclude Aydın's lower Maeander/Ephesus core, Karasi, Ottoman Bithynia, captives merely passing through Balat from another polity's raid, and later Ottoman incorporation.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_045", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 11.5645561954, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3966478398, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.5870562331, "unknown_bound_high": 64.9222722536 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 33.335964927, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2410228679, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0347298701, "unknown_bound_high": 83.9324430825 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 51.4387666946, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2465868986, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4944397345 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.573942799, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.5, "unknown_bound_high": 62.5 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-aydin-lower-maeander-umur-tract", "name": "Aydınid lower Maeander-Ephesus tract under Umur's raiding and captive regime, 1309-1348", "start": 1309, "end": 1348, "date_label": "1309–1348 CE", "operative_date_start": 1309, "operative_date_end": 1348, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Grant identifies Umur's period as 1309-1348. These bounds delimit the directly evidenced ruler-phase and do not claim to cover the entire Aydınid principality before or after it.", "region": "Anatolia", "mechanism": "Polity consolidation after conquest, maritime and overland raiding, seizure and circulation of captives, control of emporia and routes, and subordination or accommodation of surviving Christian congregations and residents.", "agents": [ "The Aydınid dynasty, especially Umur and the forces and merchants attached to him, with Hızır and other Aydınid rulers forming adjacent dynastic context." ], "victims": [ "Greek-speaking Christian residents of the lower Maeander and Ephesus/Ayasuluk region and people seized during Aydınid raids and sold, retained, or transferred as captives." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The ruler phase, core cities, polity institutions, and recurring captive mechanism form a coherent 1309–1348 tract program. Other beyliks, later Ottoman rule, and external raid origins remain disjoint attributes or events.", "disputes": "The opened locator does not provide a lower-Maeander population denominator, a count of residents removed or retained, or a measured demographic legacy through 1348. It also cannot support extrapolating every Aydınid raid origin or sale destination into this tract.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Aydınid territorial consolidation in the lower Maeander combined with Umur-era raiding, captive removal, and subordination or accommodation of local residents", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-aydin-lower-maeander-umur-tract::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Alasdair C. Grant thesis at printed page 66 and pages 198-200; A. C. S. Peacock, Islam, Literature and Society in Mongol Anatolia, section The Formation of Islamic Anatolia, opening three paragraphs; Lazaridis et al., Medieval migrations into Anatolia and the Balkans and the Figure 4 discussion; and the Beihammer preview at pages 1 and 5-6 as a chronology boundary control. Three additional authoritative works were opened: Vedat Turgut on the Menteşe principality, especially printed pages 25-27 and 38-42; Raif Kaplanoğlu and Yusuf Kılıç on the non-Muslim population of Bursa and Bithynian settlement, especially printed pages 27-29 and the Bursa/Mudanya/Iznik/Izmit locality discussion; and Alasdair C. Grant, Byzantine Slavery and the Mediterranean World, especially printed pages 31-35 and 166-180. No fourth additional work was needed.", "url": "https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/pub/media/ebooks/9781399523851.pdf", "locator": "The Edinburgh University Press PDF opened and printed pp. 168-176 were present at the recorded locator. The pages identify Umur's 1309-1348 career, the Tire-Birgi-Ephesus/Ayasuluk core, raiding, tribute, captives, and local Greek Christian residents." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "medieval-beylik-ottoman-anatolian-settlement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include actions controlled by Aydınid authorities in the stated 1309-1348 ruler-phase and lower Maeander/Ephesus tract. Attribute an external raid by the initiating Aydınid force, not by the captive's origin or sale destination. Exclude Menteşe, Saruhan, Karasi, Ottoman tracts, and later Ottoman rule.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_045", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 31.2371813609, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5101263799, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.9349102469, "unknown_bound_high": 64.9222722536 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 48.5036290171, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3108192668, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.0758624085, "unknown_bound_high": 83.993935728 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3361296328, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 66.3870367244 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 76.4387666946, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.6846236896, "unknown_bound_high": 93.9324765255 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.573942799, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-ottoman-bithynia-bursa-settlement-tract", "name": "Early Ottoman conquest, retention, and captive-family settlement in Bithynia, 1303-1453", "start": 1303, "end": 1453, "date_label": "1303–1453 CE", "operative_date_start": 1303, "operative_date_end": 1453, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The Bursa-region study anchors Ottoman pressure and settlement in the Bursa plain from 1303, identifies Mudanya in 1321 and Bursa in 1326, and follows the foundation-era Bithynian corridor through the reign of Mehmed II. The 1453 upper bound is a study-period boundary, not a claim that settlement or displacement ceased.", "region": "Anatolia", "mechanism": "Frontier conquest and siege, selective displacement and village depopulation, incentives and negotiated protections to retain Christian residents, relocation of captive Balkan families into emptied villages, and Ottoman land, timar, and tahrir administration.", "agents": [ "The early Ottoman dynasty and frontier forces, Ottoman settlement and land-grant officials, local Christian lords and communities retained under negotiated terms, and authorities relocating captive Serbian, Hungarian, and Bulgarian families." ], "victims": [ "Greek-speaking Christian residents of Bithynia, inhabitants affected by conquest or emptied villages, retained non-Muslim taxpayers and producers, and captive Balkan families resettled into Bithynian villages." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The locality chain, conquest anchors, administrative continuity, resident-retention policy, and captive-family settlement form one tract-level state-building program despite its long contextual duration. Karasi before incorporation and post-1453 programs are excluded.", "disputes": "The evidence supports patterns and dated conquest anchors, but not a tract-wide count of people displaced, retained, converted, or resettled. The 1453 upper bound functions as the packet's stated study-period boundary and must not be read as a demonstrated end to settlement or displacement.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Early Ottoman conquest and land administration in Bithynia with selective local retention, village depopulation, and captive-family resettlement", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-ottoman-bithynia-bursa-settlement-tract::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Alasdair C. Grant thesis at printed page 66 and pages 198-200; A. C. S. Peacock, Islam, Literature and Society in Mongol Anatolia, section The Formation of Islamic Anatolia, opening three paragraphs; Lazaridis et al., Medieval migrations into Anatolia and the Balkans and the Figure 4 discussion; and the Beihammer preview at pages 1 and 5-6 as a chronology boundary control. Three additional authoritative works were opened: Vedat Turgut on the Menteşe principality, especially printed pages 25-27 and 38-42; Raif Kaplanoğlu and Yusuf Kılıç on the non-Muslim population of Bursa and Bithynian settlement, especially printed pages 27-29 and the Bursa/Mudanya/Iznik/Izmit locality discussion; and Alasdair C. Grant, Byzantine Slavery and the Mediterranean World, especially printed pages 31-35 and 166-180. No fourth additional work was needed.", "url": "https://acikerisim.comu.edu.tr/server/api/core/bitstreams/48326530-5b92-4e2c-82b1-273c0a59f4d8/content", "locator": "The repository PDF opened and printed pp. 27-29 matched the recorded article and page numbers. The pages contain the Bithynian population and retention discussion, captive-family resettlement, 1303 Bursa-plain expansion, Mudanya in 1321, and Bursa in 1326." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "parent_event_ids": [ "medieval-beylik-ottoman-anatolian-settlement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include only conquest, retention, land administration, and captive-family settlement located in the defined Bithynian/eastern Marmara tract under Ottoman authority. Exclude Karasi/Mysia before Ottoman incorporation, Balkan origin events, other Anatolian Ottoman tracts, and later post-1453 resettlement programs.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_045", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.6567732746, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7811530822, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 75.5037363578, "unknown_bound_high": 97.388428139 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 17.4308456911, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2305290528, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.0183163464, "unknown_bound_high": 80.9654110678 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 82.0947108862, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4653827594, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 38.2054630884, "unknown_bound_high": 91.6671871435 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1552380262, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 84.4761973792 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 43.6314960056, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3930990634, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.1515002167, "unknown_bound_high": 77.8415938718 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6065143003 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-circassian-danube-serbian-border-settlement", "name": "Ottoman strategic Circassian settlement along the Vidin-Niš-Sofia Serbian frontier, 1862-1867", "start": 1862, "end": 1867, "date_label": "1862–1867 CE", "operative_date_start": 1862, "operative_date_end": 1867, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Muchinov identifies Circassian arrivals beginning in 1862, peaking in 1864, and continuing through 1867. The target ends with that supported primary allocation window; the 1877-1878 wartime departure is a separate held movement.", "region": "Middle East and the Caucasus", "mechanism": "State-directed transport and placement, initial creation of predominantly Circassian villages, allocation of agricultural land and local resources, and use of settlement as a strategic barrier on the Serbian frontier.", "agents": [ "Ottoman Refugee Commission and provincial authorities, including Nusret Pasha and Midhat Pasha; military and local administrators; and Circassian refugee households assigned to frontier villages." ], "victims": [ "Circassian refugees expelled from or fleeing the Northwest Caucasus, and local Christian and Muslim villagers, cultivators, and taxpayers burdened by housing, provisioning, land reallocation, and frontier insecurity." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The commission, 1862–1867 placement interval, Vidin–Niš–Sofia tract, village form, and military-barrier purpose define a coherent settlement program. The Danube/Dobruja agricultural branch has a different land-use rationale and is kept separate.", "disputes": "The source reports Danube-vilayet totals and village-size examples, but does not isolate a population count, household denominator, or persistence measure for the Vidin-Niš-Sofia corridor. The post-1877 departure is contextual and cannot be folded into the 1862-1867 allocation event.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Ottoman state placement of Circassian refugee households on a strategic frontier with agricultural land allocation and burdens on existing communities", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-circassian-danube-serbian-border-settlement::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Vladimir Hamed-Troyansky article completely at printed pages 605-623, with target-level use of pages 607-609, 613-614, and 616-617. Four additional authoritative works were opened: Vladimir Muchinov on Circassian settlement in the Danube Vilayet, printed pages 83-96, especially 85-93; Ömer Karataş on Circassian settlement in Uzunyayla, printed pages 83-117, especially 90, 94-96, and 114-115; Chris Gratien, The Ottoman Quagmire, at the authoritative Cambridge abstract and accessible notes on Adana/Cilicia, post-Crimean migrants, malaria, and mevat; and Gratien's Ottoman History Podcast research page with the 1870/71 Ceyhan settlement-map description and Circassian-house caption. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/226241", "locator": "The Dergipark PDF opened and printed pp. 85-88 and 91-93 were present. Those pages give the 1862-1867 arrival window, Refugee Commission administration, Vidin-Niš-Sofia concentration, strategic-barrier rationale, village placement, land allocation, local burdens, and 1877-1878 endpoint context." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-ottoman-circassian-refugee-settlement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include households first allocated in the Vidin-Niš-Sofia frontier zone during 1862-1867. Exclude placements whose first documented tract was Lom-Nikopol-Svishtov-Dobruja, towns or northern Danube districts outside this corridor, later internal moves, and the post-1877 secondary migration.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_050", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 91.4529613343, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 85.5952452414, "unknown_bound_high": 92.0004135459 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 45.9879167655, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.9320231434, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.8618027442, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6594883998 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 77.2751277829, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6347085099, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 49.0471812085, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.1866361141, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2619898279, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 15.7682864379, "unknown_bound_high": 89.5693036471 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 13.296850824, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.52182845, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.9386750553, "unknown_bound_high": 54.755830056 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 14.9245522169, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8753890118, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.0647890168, "unknown_bound_high": 25.525887836 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-circassian-danube-dobruja-agricultural-settlement", "name": "Ottoman Circassian agricultural settlement along Lom-Nikopol-Svishtov and Dobruja, 1862-1867", "start": 1862, "end": 1867, "date_label": "1862–1867 CE", "operative_date_start": 1862, "operative_date_end": 1867, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The supported arrival and first-allocation interval is 1862-1867, with 1864 as the peak and an additional Abkhazian arrival in 1867. Exact village-by-village dates remain unresolved.", "region": "Middle East and the Caucasus", "mechanism": "Government placement into new monoethnic villages and later smaller groups in existing settlements, agricultural land allocation, 1865-1866 land mapping especially in Dobruja, and locally imposed housing and provisioning obligations.", "agents": [ "Ottoman Refugee Commission and Danube Vilayet authorities, local land-survey and provisioning officials, Circassian refugee households, and an Abkhazian cohort arriving in 1867." ], "victims": [ "Circassian and Abkhazian refugees and local Christian and Muslim agricultural communities whose land, housing, taxes, labor, or provisions were used or reassigned for settlement." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The locality chain, land-survey regime, village forms, and provisioning burdens support an agricultural settlement program distinct from the Serbian-frontier barrier. Unresolved northern and town placements and later re-migration are excluded.", "disputes": "The source gives only vilayet-wide Circassian and Abkhazian totals, not a tract-specific count or durable village roster. It dates the 1867 Abkhazian arrival to the vilayet but does not locate that cohort in the named agricultural tract, so that cohort-to-tract link remains unsupported.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Ottoman agricultural placement of Circassian and Abkhazian refugees in surveyed Danube and Dobruja tracts using reassigned land, housing, labor, and provisions", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-circassian-danube-dobruja-agricultural-settlement::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Vladimir Hamed-Troyansky article completely at printed pages 605-623, with target-level use of pages 607-609, 613-614, and 616-617. Four additional authoritative works were opened: Vladimir Muchinov on Circassian settlement in the Danube Vilayet, printed pages 83-96, especially 85-93; Ömer Karataş on Circassian settlement in Uzunyayla, printed pages 83-117, especially 90, 94-96, and 114-115; Chris Gratien, The Ottoman Quagmire, at the authoritative Cambridge abstract and accessible notes on Adana/Cilicia, post-Crimean migrants, malaria, and mevat; and Gratien's Ottoman History Podcast research page with the 1870/71 Ceyhan settlement-map description and Circassian-house caption. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/226241", "locator": "The Dergipark PDF opened at printed pp. 85-88 and 91-93. The locator contains the 1862-1867 arrivals, Lom-Nikopol-Svishtov-Dobruja locality chain, village forms, agricultural allocations, 1865-1866 Dobruja mapping, local provisioning burdens, and later wartime departure context." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-ottoman-circassian-refugee-settlement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include first allocations in the named right-bank/Dobruja tract. Exclude the Vidin-Niš-Sofia strategic belt, unresolved northern and town placements, and any later re-migration. Keep the 1867 Abkhazian cohort as an attribute until its finite village allocation is sourced.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_050", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 88.9402722224, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 83.2434980962, "unknown_bound_high": 89.6486664006 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 45.9879167655, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.9320231434, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.8618027442, "unknown_bound_high": 49.6594883998 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 74.3482516881, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6347085099, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 47.1894680437, "unknown_bound_high": 83.7186170523 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 66.2370437023, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.4428814345, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 29.335156929, "unknown_bound_high": 85.0470134834 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 17.65121238, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3930990634, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.9386750553, "unknown_bound_high": 67.6287687105 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 18.2861231586, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.7144646738, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 13.0647890168, "unknown_bound_high": 41.6183216412 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-circassian-uzunyayla-collective-settlement", "name": "Collective North Caucasian refugee settlement in Uzunyayla/Aziziye, 1860-1870", "start": 1860, "end": 1870, "date_label": "1860–1870 CE", "operative_date_start": 1860, "operative_date_end": 1870, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Karataş treats 1860-1870 as the settlement interval and states that the main placement was completed in 1864, while some unresolved households and village formation continued within the decade.", "region": "Middle East and the Caucasus", "mechanism": "Collective state-directed placement, free grants from miri, vakıf, or vacant land under refugee regulations, kin/cohort village clustering, construction and provisioning imposed partly on local communities, and conflict over fields, pasture, and attempts to displace existing cultivators.", "agents": [ "Ottoman central and Aziziye/Kayseri officials, Refugee Commission personnel, local administrators, and Kabardin, Abaza, Abzakh, Hatukoy, Chechen, Nogay, Daghestani, and Karachay refugee groups." ], "victims": [ "Nearly 3,000 North Caucasian refugee households, including 318 initially unplaced households, and local Afshar pastoralists, Christian cultivators and villages, and other users of fields, pasture, housing materials, and water." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The bounded decade, household scale, cohort composition, land regime, and plateau conflict support one coherent tract program. Villages and cohorts remain attributes rather than separately weighted events, while other Ottoman settlement regions are excluded.", "disputes": "The opened material supports the plateau program and its main 1864 placement milestone, but it does not provide a complete household-to-village register or prove that every listed North Caucasian cohort remained through 1870. Those finer cohort and village outcomes must remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Ottoman collective refugee settlement on the Uzunyayla plateau through land grants, clustered villages, local provisioning burdens, and conflict with existing cultivators and pastoralists", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-circassian-uzunyayla-collective-settlement::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Vladimir Hamed-Troyansky article completely at printed pages 605-623, with target-level use of pages 607-609, 613-614, and 616-617. Four additional authoritative works were opened: Vladimir Muchinov on Circassian settlement in the Danube Vilayet, printed pages 83-96, especially 85-93; Ömer Karataş on Circassian settlement in Uzunyayla, printed pages 83-117, especially 90, 94-96, and 114-115; Chris Gratien, The Ottoman Quagmire, at the authoritative Cambridge abstract and accessible notes on Adana/Cilicia, post-Crimean migrants, malaria, and mevat; and Gratien's Ottoman History Podcast research page with the 1870/71 Ceyhan settlement-map description and Circassian-house caption. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/105806", "locator": "The Dergipark PDF opened and the recorded printed pages 90, 94-96, and 114-115 resolved correctly. They contain the free miri, vakif, and vacant-land rule, household figures, 1864 completion statement, field and property conflict, collective settlement, and cohort list." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-ottoman-circassian-refugee-settlement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include refugees whose first documented Ottoman allocation was Uzunyayla during 1860-1870. Do not create separate targets for each village or cohort without distinct orders; record cohort and village as attributes. Exclude Çukurova, Danube, Transjordan, and later household migration out of Uzunyayla.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_050", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 78.0934877674, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.0914684411, "unknown_bound_high": 79.4966367455 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 44.5612241581, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 44.5612241581, "unknown_bound_high": 44.5612241581 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 74.3482516881, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6347085099, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 47.1894680437, "unknown_bound_high": 83.7186170523 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.67518017, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 20.1872493147, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8377125375, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.9111118478, "unknown_bound_high": 33.1398581013 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4200365235, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 57.9963476539 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 50 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-circassian-wadi-al-sir-settlement-1880", "name": "Bzhedugh and Abzakh Circassian settlement at Wadi al-Sir, 1880", "start": 1880, "end": 1880, "date_label": "1880 CE", "operative_date_start": 1880, "operative_date_end": 1880, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "Hamed-Troyansky dates the Circassian founding of Wadi al-Sir to 1880. No unsupported closing date is assigned.", "region": "Middle East and the Caucasus", "mechanism": "State-directed village foundation on Balqa miri land, cohort-quarter formation, land registration and cultivation, and incorporation into the regional agricultural property market.", "agents": [ "Ottoman refugee and Balqa authorities and Bzhedugh and Abzakh Circassian refugee households." ], "victims": [ "Bzhedugh and Abzakh settlers and prior or neighboring Balqa land, pasture, and water claimants affected by miri registration and cultivation." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The exact founding year, separate village tract, named cohorts, and property evidence distinguish Wadi al-Sir from the Amman program despite a shared regional land framework. Later purchases and other villages are excluded.", "disputes": "The locator does not document a Wadi al-Sir-specific violent removal, coercive encounter, or named predecessor claimant. General Balqa land contention cannot be assigned to this village without a local record, so coercion and any predecessor displacement must remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Ottoman foundation of a distinct Circassian village at Wadi al-Sir through miri-land allocation, cohort quarters, registration, and cultivation", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-circassian-wadi-al-sir-settlement-1880::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited Vladimir Hamed-Troyansky article completely at printed pages 605-623, with target-level use of pages 607-609, 613-614, and 616-617. Four additional authoritative works were opened: Vladimir Muchinov on Circassian settlement in the Danube Vilayet, printed pages 83-96, especially 85-93; Ömer Karataş on Circassian settlement in Uzunyayla, printed pages 83-117, especially 90, 94-96, and 114-115; Chris Gratien, The Ottoman Quagmire, at the authoritative Cambridge abstract and accessible notes on Adana/Cilicia, post-Crimean migrants, malaria, and mevat; and Gratien's Ottoman History Podcast research page with the 1870/71 Ceyhan settlement-map description and Circassian-house caption. No fifth additional work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.global.ucsb.edu/sites/default/files/sitefiles/people/Hamed-Troyansky%202017.pdf", "locator": "The UCSB-hosted article opened and printed pp. 607, 608, and 613 matched the locator. The pages date Wadi al-Sir's foundation to 1880, explain the Balqa miri allocation and registration regime, and list separate Bzhedugh and Abzakh Wadi al-Sir land entries." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "nineteenth century", "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-ottoman-circassian-refugee-settlement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include first allocations to the Wadi al-Sir Bzhedugh and Abzakh settlement in 1880. Exclude same-named cohorts settling in Amman, later market purchases, and Na'ur or other Transjordan villages.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_050", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 79.9563314039, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.8349938074, "unknown_bound_high": 81.2401621119 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 61.8838958722, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.9259243529, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 57.2998062392, "unknown_bound_high": 64.7073709512 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 74.6514675043, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5690139966, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 42.4777298755, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5763302171 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2876434082, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.7643408248, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 3.4042750538, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.4042750538, "unknown_bound_high": 3.4042750538 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.337479145, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 66.2520854975 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-indochina-vietnam-boat-exodus", "name": "Vietnamese boat asylum exodus to East and Southeast Asian first-asylum territories, 1975-1992", "start": 1975, "end": 1992, "date_label": "1975–1992 CE", "operative_date_start": 1975, "operative_date_end": 1992, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "UNHCR records self-organized Vietnamese boat arrivals by the end of 1975, a major surge from 1978, another surge in 1987-89, and only 41 asylum seekers in 1992 with negligible numbers thereafter. The 1992 end is an operational boundary for the mass flow, not an assertion that no individual departed later.", "region": "Southeast Asia and the Pacific", "mechanism": "Clandestine maritime flight in small craft or larger smuggling vessels; rescue or refusal to disembark; piracy, death at sea, and boat pushbacks; temporary camp confinement and resettlement processing; after 1989, screening under the CPA.", "agents": [ "Vietnamese authorities implementing re-education, new economic-zone resettlement, private-business expropriation, ethnic hostility, and penalties on clandestine exit; Vietnamese asylum seekers and smuggling networks; pirates and first-asylum authorities whose pushbacks shaped the route; UNHCR and resettlement states as protection actors." ], "victims": [ "Vietnamese people departing by sea, including former South Vietnamese residents, political and economic targets, and Hoa who used the maritime route, but excluding the separately bounded overland Hoa-to-China movement." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The maritime route and first-asylum/camp system form a coherent removal-without-replacement channel distinct from official evacuation, overland Hoa flight, and ODP departure. Mixed individual motives and changing policy intensity must remain unknown or ranged in scoring rather than treated as one uniform expulsion order.", "disputes": "The regional synthesis provides aggregate routes and outcomes rather than person-level links among departure cause, first-asylum location, third-country resettlement, and later return. It cannot support double-counting Hoa sea travelers with the separate overland branch or treating every post-1989 return as forced.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Mass maritime flight under re-education, property expropriation, coerced economic-zone relocation, ethnic hostility, exit penalties, and first-asylum pushback", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-indochina-vietnam-boat-exodus::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited UNHCR, The State of the World's Refugees 2000, Chapter 4, Flight from Indochina, including printed page 79 overview; Vietnamese sections on printed pages 81-90; Cambodian sections on printed pages 91-96; Laotian sections on printed pages 97-99; and the immediately continuing Lao screening and return text on printed pages 100-102 needed to resolve the cited Lao section's movement sequence. Opened the cited UNHCR, Report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 1994 (A/49/12), South-East Asia, paragraphs 126-133, through the official UNHCR text corresponding to the Refworld record. No additional authoritative work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/3ebf9bad0.pdf", "locator": "The recorded UNHCR PDF opened through the durable URL, although a direct command-line request was refused by the host. Printed pp. 81-90 were available and matched the cited fall-of-Saigon, boat-exodus, conference, CPA, piracy, rescue, screening, first-asylum, and arrival-distribution passages." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-indochinese-refugee-exodus" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Classify the outbound edge by route: maritime departure enters this target; official April 1975 evacuation, ODP direct departure, or overland flight to China does not. Hoa traveling by sea remain here and are not also counted in the Hoa-overland target. A later CPA return is retained as a separate return edge but the person is deduplicated in parent-level totals.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_056", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 44.1868447623, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4971185191, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.9660988315, "unknown_bound_high": 72.2542469224 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 31.4760545112, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8764510442, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 27.5872208432, "unknown_bound_high": 39.9421164247 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1864550529, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 81.3544947085 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 43.2849488576, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 28.1554918086, "unknown_bound_high": 63.1086509281 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 41.8697645115, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8712706135, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 36.4798954111, "unknown_bound_high": 49.3528340656 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 26.242405561, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.7428051816, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 19.4929948296, "unknown_bound_high": 45.2124766648 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 75, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-indochina-vietnam-hoa-china-flight", "name": "Hoa and other ethnic Chinese flight from northern Viet Nam to China, 1978-1979", "start": 1978, "end": 1979, "date_label": "1978–1979 CE", "operative_date_start": 1978, "operative_date_end": 1979, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The source dates formal expropriation measures and a marked escalation of ethnic-Chinese flight to early 1978 and reports more than 250,000 people from Viet Nam in China by the end of 1979. These are the supported bounds for the overland China branch.", "region": "Southeast Asia and the Pacific", "mechanism": "Ethnically concentrated expropriation and political hostility followed by cross-border land flight, asylum, and local settlement in China.", "agents": [ "Vietnamese authorities conducting private-business expropriation and increasingly hostile policy toward ethnic Chinese residents; Chinese authorities receiving and settling refugees on state farms." ], "victims": [ "Ethnic Chinese residents of Viet Nam, especially poor fishermen, artisans, and peasants from northern Viet Nam who fled to China." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The affected cohort, northern origin, land route, 1978–1979 interval, Vietnamese policy mechanism, and Chinese settlement response distinguish this event from the sea exodus. Hoa who left by boat are excluded to prevent route-level duplication.", "disputes": "The page supports the aggregate northern land-border branch but does not provide locality-level origins, state-farm destinations, individual expropriation histories, or a route-level denominator separate from all Viet Nam refugees in China. Those details must remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Ethnically concentrated expropriation and official hostility driving northern Hoa residents across the land border, followed by state-farm settlement in China", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-indochina-vietnam-hoa-china-flight::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited UNHCR, The State of the World's Refugees 2000, Chapter 4, Flight from Indochina, including printed page 79 overview; Vietnamese sections on printed pages 81-90; Cambodian sections on printed pages 91-96; Laotian sections on printed pages 97-99; and the immediately continuing Lao screening and return text on printed pages 100-102 needed to resolve the cited Lao section's movement sequence. Opened the cited UNHCR, Report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 1994 (A/49/12), South-East Asia, paragraphs 126-133, through the official UNHCR text corresponding to the Refworld record. No additional authoritative work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/3ebf9bad0.pdf", "locator": "The UNHCR PDF opened at the authorized URL and printed p. 82 contained the recorded early-1978 expropriation, official hostility, northern Hoa flight, state-farm settlement, and end-1979 refugee total. The page and bounded land-border branch matched the packet locator." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-indochinese-refugee-exodus" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include only the outbound land-border edge to China. Hoa who left by boat are assigned to the boat-exodus target, and a person cannot be counted in both for the same departure. Later resettlement within China is an outcome of this edge, not another displacement target.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_056", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 84.9555132187, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8158238593, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 69.3087346615, "unknown_bound_high": 87.7263487331 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 30.2195410724, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5713019906, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.2644839682, "unknown_bound_high": 60.1342849131 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.326002058, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 28.4702088262, "unknown_bound_high": 95.8700030283 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.9724367925, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.9724367925, "unknown_bound_high": 9.9724367925 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3777253046, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 62.2274695377 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-indochina-cambodia-khmer-rouge-evacuation", "name": "Khmer Rouge urban evacuation and nationwide forced displacement in Cambodia, 1975-1979", "start": 1975, "end": 1979, "date_label": "1975–1979 CE", "operative_date_start": 1975, "operative_date_end": 1979, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The source dates the systematic emptying of Phnom Penh to 17 April 1975 and the four-year Khmer Rouge rule to the Vietnamese invasion in early 1979. The year bounds preserve that exact historical bracket.", "region": "Southeast Asia and the Pacific", "mechanism": "Gunpoint evacuation of cities and towns, forced rural relocation, collectivized labour camps, expulsion of foreign residents, and coercive controls producing mass internal displacement and cross-border escape.", "agents": [ "Khmer Rouge revolutionary forces and the Democratic Kampuchea regime led by Pol Pot." ], "victims": [ "Residents of Phnom Penh and other Cambodian cities and towns; rural and urban civilians forced into collectivized labour and internal movement; and the smaller group that escaped to Thailand, Laos, or Viet Nam during Khmer Rouge rule." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The state actor, nationwide urban-emptying policy, collectivized territorial use, affected population, and 1975–1979 regime boundary form a coherent removal program. Later invasion flight, Thai camp systems, and repatriation are distinct events.", "disputes": "The synthesis reports national-scale internal displacement and cross-border totals but does not trace individuals from a particular city to a particular labor site or distinguish all deaths by mechanism. Later flight from the Vietnamese invasion and later return movements remain outside this bounded event.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Khmer Rouge gunpoint evacuation of cities, forced rural relocation, collectivized labor settlement, and controlled population redistribution", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-indochina-cambodia-khmer-rouge-evacuation::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited UNHCR, The State of the World's Refugees 2000, Chapter 4, Flight from Indochina, including printed page 79 overview; Vietnamese sections on printed pages 81-90; Cambodian sections on printed pages 91-96; Laotian sections on printed pages 97-99; and the immediately continuing Lao screening and return text on printed pages 100-102 needed to resolve the cited Lao section's movement sequence. Opened the cited UNHCR, Report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 1994 (A/49/12), South-East Asia, paragraphs 126-133, through the official UNHCR text corresponding to the Refworld record. No additional authoritative work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/3ebf9bad0.pdf", "locator": "The UNHCR PDF opened and printed pp. 91-92 contained the 17 April 1975 emptying of Phnom Penh, nationwide city and town evacuation, collectivized labor camps, cross-border escape totals, and early-1979 endpoint. The cited caption's gunpoint characterization was also present in the opened chapter." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-indochinese-refugee-exodus" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign the initial Khmer Rouge forced evacuation or 1975-78 escape edge here. A person who later fled the 1979 invasion or border war can have a second movement edge in the post-invasion target, but parent-level people totals deduplicate that person. Camp transfers and the 1992-93 return are not additional Khmer Rouge evacuation events.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_056", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 74.3278192674, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.3278192674, "unknown_bound_high": 74.3278192674 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 45.4700300439, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.6133522538, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 27.8891454091, "unknown_bound_high": 66.5539200263 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 47.0886798134, "display_value_5": 45, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 47.0886798134, "unknown_bound_high": 47.0886798134 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 72.0647886969, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6963365374, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 50.18134543, "unknown_bound_high": 80.5476916896 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8074621486, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 19.253785142 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-indochina-cambodia-preah-vihear-refoulement", "name": "Thai mass refoulement of Cambodian refugees at Preah Vihear, June 1979", "start": 1979, "end": 1979, "date_label": "1979 CE", "operative_date_start": 1979, "operative_date_end": 1979, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The source fixes the operation to June 1979; both year fields are therefore 1979.", "region": "Southeast Asia and the Pacific", "mechanism": "Military roundup, mass expulsion and forced return down a mined mountainside, causing deaths in the minefields; the source identifies it as refoulement.", "agents": [ "Thai soldiers and Thai authorities carrying out the roundup and pushback; Cambodian refugees were the affected population; ICRC and UNHCR appear as protection actors, with UNHCR's failure to protest discussed by the source." ], "victims": [ "More than 42,000 Cambodian refugees in Thai border camps who were rounded up and forced back toward Cambodia." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The state actor, opposite-direction forced movement, precise June 1979 date, camp origin, border destination, and refoulement mechanism form a bounded removal event. The preceding outward flight remains a distinct edge and parent-level person totals must deduplicate overlap.", "disputes": "The opened page supplies no event-specific labor regime, livelihood restructuring, economic beneficiary, or property-market evidence. It also gives a range rather than an exact death total and cannot link the forced-return cohort person by person to an earlier Cambodian flight edge.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Thai military roundup and mass forced return of Cambodian refugees from border camps into mined territory at Preah Vihear", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-indochina-cambodia-preah-vihear-refoulement::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited UNHCR, The State of the World's Refugees 2000, Chapter 4, Flight from Indochina, including printed page 79 overview; Vietnamese sections on printed pages 81-90; Cambodian sections on printed pages 91-96; Laotian sections on printed pages 97-99; and the immediately continuing Lao screening and return text on printed pages 100-102 needed to resolve the cited Lao section's movement sequence. Opened the cited UNHCR, Report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 1994 (A/49/12), South-East Asia, paragraphs 126-133, through the official UNHCR text corresponding to the Refworld record. No additional authoritative work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/3ebf9bad0.pdf", "locator": "The authorized UNHCR PDF opened and printed p. 92 exactly contained the June 1979 Thai military roundup of more than 42,000 Cambodian refugees, the forced descent at Preah Vihear, minefield deaths, and UNHCR's characterization of the episode as forced return or refoulement." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-indochinese-refugee-exodus" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Record only the forced return edge at Preah Vihear. The preceding Cambodian outward flight remains in the relevant Khmer Rouge or post-invasion target, but unique people are counted once at parent level. Do not treat deaths or later re-flight as additional people without case-linked records.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_056", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 96.4808748018, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8274114925, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 79.8293846128, "unknown_bound_high": 97.0882353677 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 22.4871174951, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.8188530792, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.4136454043, "unknown_bound_high": 36.5283374795 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 45.1706554375, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.9633137958, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.6846236896, "unknown_bound_high": 81.059537871 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 37.5, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 37.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-indochina-laos-hmong-1986-pushback", "name": "Thai pushback of Hmong asylum seekers to Laos, 1986", "start": 1986, "end": 1986, "date_label": "1986 CE", "operative_date_start": 1986, "operative_date_end": 1986, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The source dates reports of several hundred Hmong pushed back to Laos to 1986; both bounds are 1986.", "region": "Southeast Asia and the Pacific", "mechanism": "Border pushback and forced return without admission to the ordinary refugee-camp pathway.", "agents": [ "Thai border and immigration authorities carrying out pushbacks; Hmong asylum seekers; UNHCR as a protection and appeal actor in the surrounding screening system." ], "victims": [ "Several hundred Hmong arriving from Laos who were reported pushed back before Thailand's position eased in 1988." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The actor, cohort, movement direction, forced-return mechanism, border territory, and year are directly supported. It remains a separate return edge from the earlier Hmong outward flight, with parent-level person deduplication required.", "disputes": "The source gives no exact count, individual cases, Thai entry points, Laos destinations, event-specific livelihood effects, or economic purpose. It reports the pushback rather than documenting each operational actor, so finer agency and outcome facts must remain unknown.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Thai state pushback and forced return of a bounded Hmong asylum-seeker cohort at the Laos border in 1986", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-indochina-laos-hmong-1986-pushback::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited UNHCR, The State of the World's Refugees 2000, Chapter 4, Flight from Indochina, including printed page 79 overview; Vietnamese sections on printed pages 81-90; Cambodian sections on printed pages 91-96; Laotian sections on printed pages 97-99; and the immediately continuing Lao screening and return text on printed pages 100-102 needed to resolve the cited Lao section's movement sequence. Opened the cited UNHCR, Report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 1994 (A/49/12), South-East Asia, paragraphs 126-133, through the official UNHCR text corresponding to the Refworld record. No additional authoritative work was consulted.", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/3ebf9bad0.pdf", "locator": "The UNHCR PDF opened at the packet-authorized route and printed p. 101 contained the recorded statement that several hundred Hmong were pushed back to Laos in 1986, together with the surrounding Thai screening and UNHCR observation and appeal process." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1945-1989", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-indochinese-refugee-exodus" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "This target contains only the 1986 return edge. The affected person's earlier Hmong outward edge remains in the Hmong-flight target, while parent-level unique-person counts deduplicate the person. Do not generalize the documented 1986 pushback to all screened-out Lao returns.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_056", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 75.4247986496, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.7786464626, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 58.7292526594, "unknown_bound_high": 80.8646064013 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 16.9652450573, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.6628035814, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 11.2446251835, "unknown_bound_high": 44.9642670423 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 34.2952944126, "display_value_5": 35, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3862508582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 13.2465868986, "unknown_bound_high": 74.62150108 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.615282815, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 38.4717185006 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 37.5, "unknown_bound_high": 87.5 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-somalia-conflict-1991-1995", "name": "Somalia state-collapse and inter- and intra-clan conflict displacement, 1991-1995", "start": 1991, "end": 1995, "date_label": "1991–1995 CE", "operative_date_start": 1991, "operative_date_end": 1995, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The World Bank period roster explicitly labels 1991-1995 as the state-collapse and inter- and intra-clan conflict wave, with displacement peaking in 1992. The bounds follow that source period and do not imply that every local conflict began or ended on those endpoints.", "region": "Horn of Africa", "mechanism": "Flight from direct violence, threatened violence, factional warfare, state collapse, looting, and clan-targeted abuse, with contemporaneous drought and famine compounding but not automatically defining each movement.", "agents": [ "Armed clan factions and militias fighting after the collapse of the Siad Barre state; ex-regime-aligned groups and rival factions targeted in the violence; civilians fleeing direct or threatened violence." ], "victims": [ "Somali civilians displaced during state collapse, including urban residents, members of targeted clan groups, minorities, and rural households exposed to clan warfare; the source reports about two million internally displaced at the 1992 height." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The collapse of the Siad Barre state, 1992 displacement peak, factional actor system, and 1991–1995 outer period form a coherent conflict-removal wave. Drought and famine are secondary unless documented as the immediate movement trigger.", "disputes": "The report is a national retrospective synthesis and warns that Somalia's movements had multiple interacting causes. It does not provide incident-level actor, origin, destination, and immediate-driver records, so drought, famine, conflict, repeat movement, and land-loss edges cannot be assigned person by person.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "State-collapse factional warfare, clan-targeted violence, looting, and threatened violence causing nationwide Somali civilian removal", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-somalia-conflict-1991-1995::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited World Bank, Analysis of Displacement in Somalia, including PDF pages 13-18, sections 2.1 and 2.2.1-2.2.4, and PDF pages 20-24, sections 3.1-3.3 and 4. Opened the cited UNHCR/NRC Somalia Protection and Solutions Monitoring Network Quarterly Report for April-June 2026, including pages 1-4, the Banadir district snapshot on page 6, the outlook cautions on page 7, and the flow-methodology limitation on page 8. Opened the cited UNHCR Somalia country-profile opening text. No additional authoritative work was consulted.", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/889591468321538763/pdf/932380WP0P12640t0DC0edits009012014.pdf", "locator": "The World Bank PDF opened and PDF pp. 13-15 matched the recorded section 2.1 and 2.2.1 locators. They contain the 1991-1995 state-collapse and inter- and intra-clan period, the 1992 displacement peak, conflict and threatened-violence drivers, clan targeting, land and asset loss, and southward movement examples." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-somalia-state-collapse-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Place a movement here when conflict or threatened violence is the documented immediate trigger during 1991-1995. If drought or famine is the immediate trigger, use the matching drought/famine target and retain conflict as a secondary factor. A person moving more than once remains one person at parent level but may retain separately dated movement edges.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_062", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 17.7643482708, "display_value_5": 20, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 17.7643482708, "unknown_bound_high": 17.7643482708 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 12.4100780115, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.657621502, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 8.1611341417, "unknown_bound_high": 42.3989839427 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.0647509969, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.4750996917, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 50.8541958075, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4558844826, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.1836387439, "unknown_bound_high": 77.5951904836 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1361710022, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.2128251614, "unknown_bound_high": 96.5957249462 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 27.3073995488, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2281634104, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.2305494096, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4142083719 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 25, "unknown_bound_high": 75 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-somalia-mogadishu-conflict-2005-2009", "name": "Mogadishu-centered conflict displacement, 2005-2009", "start": 2005, "end": 2009, "date_label": "2005–2009 CE", "operative_date_start": 2005, "operative_date_end": 2009, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The World Bank brackets the Mogadishu-centered fighting as 2005-2009, identifies a two-month 2007 movement of about 300,000 people, and reports about one million affected by the end of 2009.", "region": "Horn of Africa", "mechanism": "Repeated urban armed conflict, bombardment, insecurity, and rapid flight from Mogadishu.", "agents": [ "Transitional federal authorities and allied forces, Islamist and insurgent armed groups, and other forces fighting for control of Mogadishu; civilians fleeing the city and surrounding conflict areas." ], "victims": [ "Mogadishu residents and other civilians displaced by repeated fighting, including the large 2007 exodus described by the source." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The city theater, actor contest, 2005–2009 period, and documented 2007 exodus form an intelligible conflict-removal unit distinct from the northern territorial front and earlier TNG-wide fighting.", "disputes": "The cited pages do not name the specific combatants, command relationships, bombardment episodes, legal or administrative measures, or event-specific labor and livelihood outcomes. The reported figures are aggregate movements or affected persons and cannot identify unique people or repeat movers.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Repeated armed struggle for Mogadishu, bombardment, and insecurity causing a city-centered mass exodus", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-somalia-mogadishu-conflict-2005-2009::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited World Bank, Analysis of Displacement in Somalia, including PDF pages 13-18, sections 2.1 and 2.2.1-2.2.4, and PDF pages 20-24, sections 3.1-3.3 and 4. Opened the cited UNHCR/NRC Somalia Protection and Solutions Monitoring Network Quarterly Report for April-June 2026, including pages 1-4, the Banadir district snapshot on page 6, the outlook cautions on page 7, and the flow-methodology limitation on page 8. Opened the cited UNHCR Somalia country-profile opening text. No additional authoritative work was consulted.", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/889591468321538763/pdf/932380WP0P12640t0DC0edits009012014.pdf", "locator": "The World Bank PDF opened and PDF pp. 14-15 and 20 were present at the recorded locators. Section 2.1 brackets fighting centered on Mogadishu to 2005-2009 and records 300,000 people leaving in two months in 2007 and one million affected by the end of 2009." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-somalia-state-collapse-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Include only conflict-triggered outward or within-city movement tied to the 2005-2009 Mogadishu fighting. The contemporaneous Puntland-Somaliland front is assigned to the northern-territorial target. Later eviction from a Mogadishu settlement is a separate secondary edge, with the person deduplicated across the parent.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_062", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 66.4957710788, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2910911696, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.3563317789, "unknown_bound_high": 90.2472148157 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 3.2914603915, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.8715611727, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.8687090786, "unknown_bound_high": 15.7125918115 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 60.6457671641, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 39.4481556679, "unknown_bound_high": 74.4013147875 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 31.8046487548, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5276268582, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 64.0183010755 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.615282815, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 38.4717185006 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-somalia-puntland-somaliland-front-2005-2009", "name": "Puntland-Somaliland territorial-front displacement, 2005-2009", "start": 2005, "end": 2009, "date_label": "2005–2009 CE", "operative_date_start": 2005, "operative_date_end": 2009, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The World Bank's 2005-2009 period bullet states that disputes between Puntland and Somaliland opened a new displacement front. The source does not support extending this specific target beyond that bracket.", "region": "Horn of Africa", "mechanism": "Territorial dispute, armed confrontation, insecurity, and flight from contested northern areas.", "agents": [ "Puntland and Somaliland political and armed authorities and associated forces contesting the northern front; civilians displaced from disputed areas." ], "victims": [ "Residents displaced by Puntland-Somaliland disputes, including people from disputed Sool and Sanaag areas later represented among northern IDP populations." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The rival authorities, disputed northern territory, actor direction, and 2005–2009 front distinguish this event from contemporaneous Mogadishu conflict. Later northern movement requires separately dated evidence rather than presumed continuity.", "disputes": "The locator calls the trigger disputes and a new displacement front but does not document a specific armed confrontation, operational force, incident, livelihood effect, period-specific flow count, or durable outcome. Current northern settlement figures cannot be assigned wholly to this 2005-2009 event.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Puntland-Somaliland territorial contest and armed confrontation causing removal from disputed Sool and Sanaag areas", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-somalia-puntland-somaliland-front-2005-2009::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited World Bank, Analysis of Displacement in Somalia, including PDF pages 13-18, sections 2.1 and 2.2.1-2.2.4, and PDF pages 20-24, sections 3.1-3.3 and 4. Opened the cited UNHCR/NRC Somalia Protection and Solutions Monitoring Network Quarterly Report for April-June 2026, including pages 1-4, the Banadir district snapshot on page 6, the outlook cautions on page 7, and the flow-methodology limitation on page 8. Opened the cited UNHCR Somalia country-profile opening text. No additional authoritative work was consulted.", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/889591468321538763/pdf/932380WP0P12640t0DC0edits009012014.pdf", "locator": "The World Bank PDF opened and PDF p. 14 names Puntland-Somaliland disputes as a new 2005-2009 displacement front; PDF p. 22's Somaliland section identifies people displaced from disputed Sool and Sanaag among northern settlement populations. Both recorded locators were usable." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-somalia-state-collapse-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Assign a movement here by origin in the disputed northern front and a documented Puntland-Somaliland territorial trigger. Do not also assign it to the 2005-2009 Mogadishu target. Later northern movement requires separately dated evidence and is not presumed continuous.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_062", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 56.6843461409, "display_value_5": 55, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3438524728, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.4910525902, "unknown_bound_high": 85.1058053092 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 4.0564068712, "display_value_5": 5, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.5609591448, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.2754785294, "unknown_bound_high": 46.1795640509 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1987618544, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1213504695, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8987147883 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1362432002, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 86.3756799804 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-somalia-mogadishu-urban-evictions-2012-2013", "name": "Mogadishu public-land and settlement evictions and relocation pressure, 2012-2013", "start": 2012, "end": 2013, "date_label": "2012–2013 CE", "operative_date_start": 2012, "operative_date_end": 2013, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "The World Bank states that the government summarily evicted many IDPs and urban poor while reclaiming public buildings in 2012, and that a relocation plan announced on 20 January 2013 sought movement outside the city by 20 August 2013. The target does not assume every planned relocation occurred.", "region": "Horn of Africa", "mechanism": "Summary eviction, public-property reclamation, forced relocation pressure, clearance of settlements, and removal by returning owners amid rising urban land values.", "agents": [ "Somali government ministries and authorities reclaiming public buildings or land and planning relocation; returning property owners; security or implementing personnel; IDP and urban-poor settlement residents." ], "victims": [ "Internally displaced families and urban poor living in Mogadishu public buildings, public land, informal settlements, or returned private property, often with little notice and no alternative." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The dated actions, urban tracts, property-reclamation mechanism, and secondarily displaced cohort support a distinct land-clearance event. Only implemented removals count; the 2013 plan alone and voluntary secure-tenure relocation are excluded.", "disputes": "The report says many IDPs and urban poor were summarily evicted but gives no implemented-removal total, household roster, destination outcome, or secure way to separate 2012 evictions from the 2013 plan. The plan alone cannot be treated as completed relocation.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "Implemented government and owner reclamation of Mogadishu public and private land through summary eviction and forced relocation of displaced residents", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-somalia-mogadishu-urban-evictions-2012-2013::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited World Bank, Analysis of Displacement in Somalia, including PDF pages 13-18, sections 2.1 and 2.2.1-2.2.4, and PDF pages 20-24, sections 3.1-3.3 and 4. Opened the cited UNHCR/NRC Somalia Protection and Solutions Monitoring Network Quarterly Report for April-June 2026, including pages 1-4, the Banadir district snapshot on page 6, the outlook cautions on page 7, and the flow-methodology limitation on page 8. Opened the cited UNHCR Somalia country-profile opening text. No additional authoritative work was consulted.", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/889591468321538763/pdf/932380WP0P12640t0DC0edits009012014.pdf", "locator": "The World Bank PDF opened and PDF p. 17 contained the urban forced-eviction discussion; PDF p. 21 contained the 2012 public-building reclamation, summary eviction, returning-owner removals, and the 20 January to 20 August 2013 relocation-plan chronology. The locators matched the packet." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-somalia-state-collapse-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Create an eviction edge only for an implemented or directly documented removal, not merely the 2013 plan. Preserve the household's earlier conflict, drought, flood, or land-loss edge, but deduplicate the person in parent totals. Voluntary, supported relocation with secure tenure is excluded absent evidence of coercion.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_062", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.8466482663, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8414189434, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.8673203084, "unknown_bound_high": 84.7254259643 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 24.8717383644, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.6635086058, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 16.5026124449, "unknown_bound_high": 50.1517518692 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1987618544, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 16.7809869001, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 16.7809869001 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2955807009, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4419299095 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-somalia-garasbaaley-eviction-april-2026", "name": "Forced eviction from Garasbaaley informal settlements, April 2026", "start": 2026, "end": 2026, "date_label": "2026 CE", "operative_date_start": 2026, "operative_date_end": 2026, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "", "date_resolution": "PSMN dates the forced eviction to April 2026 and reports approximately 14,874 people affected. The target is limited to that documented episode.", "region": "Horn of Africa", "mechanism": "Forced eviction associated with land repossession and urban development, producing secondary and potentially cyclical displacement from insecure informal tenure.", "agents": [ "Authorities, land claimants, owners, or development actors implementing land repossession and urban development; PSMN's aggregate district snapshot does not further name the operational parties." ], "victims": [ "Approximately 14,874 residents of Garasbaaley informal settlements, many already displaced by conflict, drought, or other shocks." ], "agent_countries": [], "victim_countries": [], "container_countries": [], "atlas_status_preapply": "prospective-not-authored", "atlas_case_ids": "", "recommendation": "event-unit successor candidate; model-only", "confidence": "PASS_WITH_EXPLICIT_GAPS", "summary": "The exact month, named locality, affected flow, forced-eviction mechanism, and successor land-development rationale form a bounded event. Prior displacement histories remain person-level overlap and cannot be added mechanically to the eviction flow.", "disputes": "The district snapshot does not name the authorities, claimants, owners, developers, legal orders, implementing personnel, household destinations, or event-specific livelihood effects. PSMN tracks movement flows rather than unique IDP stock, so the approximate count cannot be added to prior displacement totals without reconciliation.", "omission_or_category_error": "", "legacy_story": "", "legacy_fit": "", "event_json_summary": "April 2026 forced eviction of Garasbaaley informal-settlement residents for land repossession and urban development", "sources": [ { "id": "prospective-somalia-garasbaaley-eviction-april-2026::SRC-01", "title": "Opened the cited World Bank, Analysis of Displacement in Somalia, including PDF pages 13-18, sections 2.1 and 2.2.1-2.2.4, and PDF pages 20-24, sections 3.1-3.3 and 4. Opened the cited UNHCR/NRC Somalia Protection and Solutions Monitoring Network Quarterly Report for April-June 2026, including pages 1-4, the Banadir district snapshot on page 6, the outlook cautions on page 7, and the flow-methodology limitation on page 8. Opened the cited UNHCR Somalia country-profile opening text. No additional authoritative work was consulted.", "url": "https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/123429", "locator": "The UNHCR data-portal route opened as the eight-page PSMN Q2 2026 PDF. Page 6 contains the April 2026 Garasbaaley forced eviction of approximately 14,874 people and the land-repossession and urban-development link; pages 7-8 contain recurrence cautions and flow-methodology limits." } ], "rendered_case_id": "", "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "event_unit_fairness_candidate_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "1990-present", "parent_event_ids": [ "modern-somalia-state-collapse-displacement" ], "parent_overlap_ruling": "Count the April eviction as a distinct movement edge but not a new unique person when the resident's prior conflict, drought, flood, or other displacement is known. Do not add the approximately 14,874 mechanically to Banadir driver totals without row-level reconciliation, and do not generalize the episode to all Banadir settlements.", "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "event_unit_program_062", "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "FINAL_INTERNAL_ANALYSIS", "provenance": "audited_successor_family_v2", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 64.1481581711, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2925455061, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.7662553978, "unknown_bound_high": 89.5117047874 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 11.7963000973, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1703773495, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.0098223442, "unknown_bound_high": 84.9720873962 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 69.443273226, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6504684088, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 45.1706554375, "unknown_bound_high": 80.1238145571 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 42.0684213127, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.7809869001, "unknown_bound_high": 76.8912397299 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.615282815, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 38.4717185006 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": null, "coverage_band": "not_applicable", "display_status": "structural_not_applicable", "unknown_bound_low": null, "unknown_bound_high": null } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-babylonian-ashkelon-destruction-captivity-604", "name": "Neo-Babylonian taking and destruction of Ashkelon with bounded royal captivity", "start": -604, "end": -604, "date_label": "late 604 BCE (restored chronicle identification)", "region": "Levant; Ashkelon, with Babylonian captivity follow-up", "mechanism": "City taking, plunder and destruction; bounded royal captivity", "agents": [ "Neo-Babylonian royal forces attributed to Nebuchadnezzar II" ], "victims": [ "Ashkelon's resident community and captured king; separately attested royal-family members in Babylon" ], "confidence": "Accepted narrow city-taking/destruction occurrence; exact 604 identification depends on restoration. Royal captivity is bounded; whole-city removal, family arrival modes and population outcomes are unresolved.", "summary": "One late-604 operation took, plundered and destroyed Ashkelon. The king's capture and later royal-family attestations support bounded captivity, not universal deportation. Archaeology supports late-seventh-century destruction but does not independently fix the exact year.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:alstola-dissertation", "title": "Tero Alstola, Judeans in Babylonia: A Study of Deportees in the Sixth and Fifth Centuries BCE", "url": "https://researchportal.helsinki.fi/en/publications/judeans-in-babylonia-a-study-of-deportees-in-the-sixth-and-fifth-/", "locator": "Printed59–60 / PDF75–76, nn.433–439; ABC5 obv18–20" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:stager-1996", "title": "Lawrence E. Stager, The Fury of Babylon: Ashkelon and the Archaeology of Destruction", "url": "https://berlinarchaeology.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/stager-1996.pdf", "locator": "Printview PDF3,12–14,22n.3,23nn.14–16,24" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "date_resolution": "qualified_month_and_year_from_restored_chronicle", "operative_date_start": -604, "operative_date_end": -604, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "Qualified historical date, not midpoint or assumed campaign duration.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "qualified_month_and_year_from_restored_chronicle", "operative_start": -604, "operative_end": -604, "numeric_proxy_used": false, "numeric_proxy_basis": "Qualified historical date, not midpoint or assumed campaign duration.", "source_date": "Kislev of the first regnal year; 604/603 is a calendrical frame.", "duration_years": null, "alternatives": [], "follow_up_not_duration": "Later Babylonian ration lists, occupation gap and Persian rebuilding do not lengthen the operation." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-neo-babylonian-deportations-judah" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:neo-babylonian-levant-successors", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Mixed parent stays retired; Ashkelon and Judean departures are different city/cohort operations, with common imperial/source dependence.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "expulsion_or_flight_without_replacement", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:ancient-neo-babylonian-ashkelon-destruction-captivity-604", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.639526665, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 63.9526664987, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 15.9667802508, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2224188306, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.5513125919, "unknown_bound_high": 81.3094295314 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1442867898, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 85.5713210164 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 50.9288434819, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.3153869016, "unknown_bound_high": 80.4256397315 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-assyrian-til-karme-captive-resettlement-738", "name": "Assyrian placement of 555 Bīt-Sangibūti captives at Tīl-karme", "start": -738, "end": -738, "date_label": "conventionally 738 BCE (annalistic placement; transfer date uncertain)", "region": "Bīt-Sangibūti origin; Tīl-karme/Gurgum receiving settlement", "mechanism": "State captive transfer and resettlement with administrative inclusion and corvée", "agents": [ "Tiglath-pileser III's Assyrian state" ], "victims": [ "Reported 555 Bīt-Sangibūti captives" ], "confidence": "Accepted attributed 555-person captive placement; restored wording and edited origin retained. Individual capture/transport dates, exact receiving location and population baselines are uncertain.", "summary": "One named captive cohort was placed at Tīl-karme and assigned administrative status and corvée. The same people are outgoing at origin and incoming at destination. No receiving-resident clearance, separate labor stream or later descendant continuity is established.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:rinap1", "title": "Hayim Tadmor and Shigeo Yamada, The Royal Inscriptions of Tiglath-pileser III (744–727 BC) and Shalmaneser V (726–722 BC), Kings of Assyria", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/downloads/Tadmor_Yamada_RINAP_1.pdf", "locator": "Printed13,45–46 / PDF47,79–80; text14.8b–10a with commentary/notes" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:oracc-q006333", "title": "ORACC RINAP 1, composite Q006333, Annals Series A and C", "url": "https://oracc.museum.upenn.edu/rinap/rinap1/Q006333/html", "locator": "Fragment5.27b–29a;22b–39a surroundings;note511" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "date_resolution": "conventional_annalistic_sorting_only", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "738 suffix/conventional annal placement is a sorting label, not a separately dated transport order.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "conventional_annalistic_sorting_only", "operative_start": null, "operative_end": null, "numeric_proxy_used": true, "numeric_proxy_basis": "738 suffix/conventional annal placement is a sorting label, not a separately dated transport order.", "source_date": "738 annalistic context; 744 defeat context does not date this transport.", "duration_years": null, "alternatives": [], "follow_up_not_duration": "744 context is not a start date; Sargon's712 action is a different cohort, not follow-up." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-neo-assyrian-unqi-annexation-cross-resettlement" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:assyrian-til-karme-unqi-boundaries", "parent_overlap_ruling": "555 stays excluded from corrected Unqi, which need not be retired for this distinct row. Legacy ancient-neo-assyrian-mass-deportations remains inactive. Do not coactivate an umbrella and its operations.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:ancient-neo-assyrian-til-karme-captive-resettlement-738", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.8200151094, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6343190468, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 58.8775035063, "unknown_bound_high": 95.4455988283 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1606565409, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.0164135237, "unknown_bound_high": 87.950759429 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1808916065, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 81.9108393452 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.6040346999, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3158840875, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 71.44535299 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "ancient-neo-babylonian-judean-deportations-597-587-586", "name": "Judean deportations to Babylonia, 597 and 587/586 BCE", "start": -597, "end": -586, "date_label": "597 and 587/586 BCE (two discontinuous departure phases)", "region": "Judah/Jerusalem to Babylonia", "mechanism": "Two-phase state deportation program and destination resettlement", "agents": [ "Neo-Babylonian state under Nebuchadnezzar II" ], "victims": [ "Selected Judean departure cohorts of 597 and 587/586; source residents distinct from deportees" ], "confidence": "Accepted deportation program and two departure phases; second date alternative retained. Transmitted totals conflict, later households are not all assigned to a phase, and resident continuity precludes total-clearance inference.", "summary": "Separate 597 and 587/586 departures form one discontinuous Judean state program. Royal hostages, professionals and rural households in Babylonia had differing situations. Destruction, flight, famine and deportation are not interchangeable components of a measured removal total; parts of Judah remained inhabited.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:alstola-dissertation", "title": "Tero Alstola, Judeans in Babylonia: A Study of Deportees in the Sixth and Fifth Centuries BCE", "url": "https://researchportal.helsinki.fi/en/publications/judeans-in-babylonia-a-study-of-deportees-in-the-sixth-and-fifth-/", "locator": "Printed8–14 / PDF24–30; especially11–14 andnn.86–88" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:alstola-brill", "title": "Tero Alstola, Judeans in Babylonia: A Study of Deportees in the Sixth and Fifth Centuries BCE", "url": "https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/master/gdc/gdcebookspublic/20/19/04/46/34/2019044634/2019044634.pdf", "locator": "PDF4–10, especiallyprintedix/PDF10" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "date_resolution": "discontinuous_departures_with_second_phase_date_alternative", "operative_date_start": -597, "operative_date_end": -586, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "Endpoints are an envelope of two departures and the later alternative year, not eleven years of continuous deportation.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "discontinuous_departures_with_second_phase_date_alternative", "operative_start": -597, "operative_end": -586, "numeric_proxy_used": false, "numeric_proxy_basis": "Endpoints are an envelope of two departures and the later alternative year, not eleven years of continuous deportation.", "source_date": "597 first departure;587 or586 second departure.", "phases": [ { "years_bce": [ 597 ], "role": "first departure" }, { "years_bce": [ 587, 586 ], "role": "alternative dates of one second departure, not two waves" } ], "duration_years": null, "follow_up_not_duration": "Later rural Babylonian documents and539 political change do not extend departures." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-neo-babylonian-deportations-judah" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:neo-babylonian-levant-successors", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retired parent cannot coexist as active observation; Ashkelon remains a separately qualified operation, not first phase of Judean successor.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:ancient-neo-babylonian-judean-deportations-597-587-586", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.3432632129, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8314854425, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 78.4450499609, "unknown_bound_high": 95.2965057094 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 68.266064913, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1606565409, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.967389853, "unknown_bound_high": 94.9017357583 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 70.6261920207, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2836817365, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 20.035360798, "unknown_bound_high": 91.6671871435 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1067518017, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 8.0063851275, "unknown_bound_high": 97.3312049575 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 64.6581500419, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.2575214716, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 16.6508619524, "unknown_bound_high": 90.8987147883 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 41.2036480533, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 12.1726097812, "unknown_bound_high": 82.6300562543 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 50, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-roman-sutrium-colonial-transition-circa-383", "name": "Sutrium colonial transition, conventionally c. 383 BCE", "start": -383, "end": -383, "date_label": "c. 383 BCE (competing earlier colony label)", "region": "Southern Etruria/Faliscan frontier; Sutrium", "mechanism": "Colonial establishment/use of attributed appropriated territory", "agents": [ "Roman colonial authority; senatorial authorization framing, with executor identities unresolved" ], "victims": [ "Prior residents and landholders in Sutrium's qualified colonial-use tract; no identified mass-removal cohort" ], "confidence": "Accepted narrow territorial-use qualification through attributed specialist synthesis and town-specific notices; antecedent taking, precise chronology, founders and contemporary resident effects remain qualified or unmeasured.", "summary": "Sutrium's narrow colonial-use definition rests on its separate foundation notice and Chiabà's attribution of the colonial territory to confiscated Falerii land. The conventional c. 383 foundation and an earlier colony label remain source-critical alternatives. Neither earlier recovery violence nor a fresh 383 confiscation is assigned to this founding cohort.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:livy6", "title": "Livy, History of Rome, Book 6", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_06.htm", "locator": "6.3,6.9–10;6.21.4" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:velleius1", "title": "Velleius Paterculus, Roman History, Book 1", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Velleius_Paterculus/1*.html#14.2", "locator": "1.14.1–2" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:diodorus14", "title": "Diodorus Siculus, Library of History, Book 14", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Diodorus_Siculus/14G*.html#117.4", "locator": "14.117.4;notes7–9" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:chiaba-2011", "title": "Monica Chiabà, Roma e le priscae Latinae coloniae", "url": "https://www.openstarts.units.it/entities/publication/db0d2857-1431-432c-9f71-cc8f2ef9889d", "locator": "Printed122–128 / PDF142–148; territorial statement125; preferred chronology128" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:rajala-nepi", "title": "Ulla Rajala, Pre-colonial Latin colonies and the transition to the mid-Republican period in the Faliscan area and south Etruria: Orientalizing, Archaic and Late Archaic settlement and funerary evidence from the Nepi Survey", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/papers-of-the-british-school-at-rome/article/abs/precolonial-latin-colonies-and-the-transition-to-the-midrepublican-period-in-the-faliscan-area-and-south-etruria-orientalizing-archaic-and-late-archaic-settlement-and-funerary-evidence-from-the-nepi-survey/1CC814F75A492516AD50164BE9F1A1D0", "locator": "Publisher abstract only" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "date_resolution": "conventional_foundation_chronology_with_competing_earlier_label", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "c.383 follows Velleius's relative chronology as interpreted by Chiabà; sorting convention, not a measured elapsed operation.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "conventional_foundation_chronology_with_competing_earlier_label", "operative_start": null, "operative_end": null, "numeric_proxy_used": true, "numeric_proxy_basis": "c.383 follows Velleius's relative chronology as interpreted by Chiabà; sorting convention, not a measured elapsed operation.", "source_date": "Velleius1.14.2: seven years after Gallic capture; Diodorus14.117.4 earlier colony label preserved as competing evidence.", "alternatives": [ { "label": "earlier post-Gallic recovery colony label (mapped to389 by Chiabà)", "status": "competing status notice; not second foundation or start date" } ], "duration_years": null, "follow_up_not_duration": "389/386 recoveries are context; later Latin status is not an operation endpoint." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-roman-sutrium-nepet-colonial-reorganization-389-373" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:sutrium-nepet-colonial-transitions", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Old wrapper stays retired. Each town's colonial use is separate; antecedent Falerii taking is not counted twice as a fresh seizure. Cadastral nonoverlap and cohort disjointness are not proved.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:prospective-gr-roman-sutrium-colonial-transition-circa-383", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1044628744, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.611571861, "unknown_bound_high": 92.1652844169 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.194533618, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.5466382017 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-roman-nepet-colonial-transition-commissioned-383-alternative-373", "name": "Nepet colonial transition: 383 commission and alternative 373 foundation tradition", "start": -383, "end": -383, "date_label": "383 BCE commission; alternative foundation tradition 373 BCE (not a ten-year event)", "region": "Southern Etruria/Faliscan frontier; Nepet", "mechanism": "Colonial establishment/use of attributed appropriated territory", "agents": [ "Roman colonial authority; three appointed colony commissioners (unnamed in delivered passage)" ], "victims": [ "Prior residents and landholders in Nepet's qualified colonial-use tract; no identified mass-removal cohort" ], "confidence": "Accepted narrow territorial-use qualification through attributed specialist synthesis and town-specific notices; antecedent taking, precise chronology, founders and contemporary resident effects remain qualified or unmeasured.", "summary": "Nepet's narrow colonial transition combines its town-specific notices with Chiabà's attributed connection to land appropriated from Falerii. Livy's 383 commission is not proof of completed settlement then; the alternative 373 foundation tradition remains discrete. A ten-year duration, two waves and measured local expulsion are not established.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:livy6", "title": "Livy, History of Rome, Book 6", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_06.htm", "locator": "6.3,6.9–10;6.21.4" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:velleius1", "title": "Velleius Paterculus, Roman History, Book 1", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Velleius_Paterculus/1*.html#14.2", "locator": "1.14.1–2" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:diodorus14", "title": "Diodorus Siculus, Library of History, Book 14", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Diodorus_Siculus/14G*.html#117.4", "locator": "14.117.4;notes7–9" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:chiaba-2011", "title": "Monica Chiabà, Roma e le priscae Latinae coloniae", "url": "https://www.openstarts.units.it/entities/publication/db0d2857-1431-432c-9f71-cc8f2ef9889d", "locator": "Printed122–128 / PDF142–148; territorial statement125; preferred chronology128" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:rajala-nepi", "title": "Ulla Rajala, Pre-colonial Latin colonies and the transition to the mid-Republican period in the Faliscan area and south Etruria: Orientalizing, Archaic and Late Archaic settlement and funerary evidence from the Nepi Survey", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/papers-of-the-british-school-at-rome/article/abs/precolonial-latin-colonies-and-the-transition-to-the-midrepublican-period-in-the-faliscan-area-and-south-etruria-orientalizing-archaic-and-late-archaic-settlement-and-funerary-evidence-from-the-nepi-survey/1CC814F75A492516AD50164BE9F1A1D0", "locator": "Publisher abstract only" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "date_resolution": "commission_and_alternative_foundation_tradition_not_interval", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": true, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "383 used only for commission-linked sorting; start=end prevents a fabricated383–373 duration. Completed foundation year remains unresolved.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "commission_and_alternative_foundation_tradition_not_interval", "operative_start": null, "operative_end": null, "numeric_proxy_used": true, "numeric_proxy_basis": "383 used only for commission-linked sorting; start=end prevents a fabricated383–373 duration. Completed foundation year remains unresolved.", "source_date": "Livy6.21.4 commission in383 context; Velleius1.14.2 conventionally373 foundation; Chiabà prefers383 as reconstruction.", "alternatives": [ { "year_bce": 383, "role": "attested commissioning; preferred foundation reconstruction, not narrated completion" }, { "year_bce": 373, "role": "alternative Velleian foundation tradition; no proved implementation delay" } ], "duration_years": null, "follow_up_not_duration": "Earlier recovery/garrison and later Latin status are not founding-cohort phases." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-roman-sutrium-nepet-colonial-reorganization-389-373" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:sutrium-nepet-colonial-transitions", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Old wrapper stays retired. Each town's colonial use is separate; antecedent Falerii taking is not counted twice as a fresh seizure. Cadastral nonoverlap and cohort disjointness are not proved.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:prospective-gr-roman-nepet-colonial-transition-commissioned-383-alternative-373", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1044628744, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 2.611571861, "unknown_bound_high": 92.1652844169 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 50, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.0803663269, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.0183163464, "unknown_bound_high": 95.9816836536 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.194533618, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 80.5466382017 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "qin-rang-convict-placement-281-bce", "name": "Qin penal-amnesty relocation to Rang", "start": -281, "end": -281, "date_label": "281 BCE (King Zhaoxiang year 26; annual date, duration unknown)", "region": "Qin–Chu southern frontier; Rang", "mechanism": "Penal-amnesty territorial placement", "agents": [ "Qin ruling authority under King Zhaoxiang; restoration of the Marquis of Rang as chancellor is not a transport-executor identification." ], "victims": [ "Amnestied convicted persons subject to placement at Rang; receiving residents kept analytically separate" ], "confidence": "Accepted annual operation and institutionally constrained placement; conventional BCE conversion follows actual annal clause. Individual consent, exact origins, numbers, local clearance and later conditions remain unresolved.", "summary": "Qin's year 26 annal records amnesty and relocation of convicted persons to Rang. The qualified event is constrained placement, not an attached conquest or demonstrated clearance of prior receiving residents. Individual volunteering, selection and destination work remain unresolved.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:shiji5", "title": "Sima Qian, Shiji 5, Basic Annals of Qin", "url": "https://warringstates.day/library/shiji/05-qin-ben-ji", "locator": "article#s30, Zhaoxiang year26; surrounding21–35" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:barbieri-low-qin", "title": "Anthony J. Barbieri-Low, Coerced Migration and Resettlement in the Qin Imperial Expansion", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-chinese-history/article/coerced-migration-and-resettlement-in-the-qin-imperial-expansion/D0DCCFB658519621610BE7A212E4A047/share/1dae239a7a681c61190bb6286f03a7dac0622367", "locator": "Terminological Considerations; Nanyang quotation/nn.12–13; surroundingnn.8–16" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:miyake-2014", "title": "Kiyoshi Miyake, “Dashing forward without helmets”?: The Qin Expeditionary Force and its Constitution", "url": "https://cccp.uchicago.edu/ChicagoWuhan2014/CWC2014/Miyake_Qin%20army_English%20version_ED4.pdf", "locator": "p.3, n.2 Chinese annual clauses and conflicting English prose; English paper context" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:kaken-miyake", "title": "KAKEN project 25284133 research-results report", "url": "https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/file/KAKENHI-PROJECT-25284133/25284133seika.pdf", "locator": "PhysicalPDF4, English presentation15" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "date_resolution": "annalistic_year_not_duration", "operative_date_start": -281, "operative_date_end": -281, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "Conventional conversion of the actual year26 annual clause, not midpoint of prose alternatives or one-year influx measurement.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "annalistic_year_not_duration", "operative_start": -281, "operative_end": -281, "numeric_proxy_used": false, "numeric_proxy_basis": "Conventional conversion of the actual year26 annual clause, not midpoint of prose alternatives or one-year influx measurement.", "source_date": "King Zhaoxiang year26 conventionally281 BCE.", "annal_year": 26, "duration_years": null, "alternatives": [], "chronology_conflict": "Miyake's English prose conflicts with the quoted year26/27/28 sequence; preserve conflict and use annual clauses, as main directs." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-qin-nanyang-clearance-convict-colony" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:qin-southern-annual-placements", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Parent remains active in unchanged intermediate checkpoint. Retire it only in separately authorized complete successor release after replacement metadata/coding and overlap/geography/family requirements; never coactivate parent and any of these children.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:qin-rang-convict-placement-281-bce", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6766902077, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 67.6690207747, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.0679768566, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.6994214139, "unknown_bound_high": 94.9017357583 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 14.2417084528, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4520550896, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.438036791, "unknown_bound_high": 61.2325278286 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 90.426057201 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "qin-nanyang-attack-convict-placement-280-bce", "name": "Qin attack on Chu and penal-amnesty relocation to Nanyang", "start": -280, "end": -280, "date_label": "280 BCE (King Zhaoxiang year 27; annual date, duration unknown)", "region": "Qin–Chu southern frontier; regional Nanyang", "mechanism": "Military taking/attack context with penal-amnesty territorial placement", "agents": [ "Qin ruling authority; Cuo's stated Chu attack. Separate same-year military campaigns do not identify this convoy's route or personnel." ], "victims": [ "Amnestied convicted persons subject to placement at regional Nanyang; receiving residents kept analytically separate" ], "confidence": "Accepted annual operation and institutionally constrained placement; conventional BCE conversion follows actual annal clause. Individual consent, exact origins, numbers, local clearance and later conditions remain unresolved.", "summary": "The year 27 clause places Qin's attack on Chu alongside amnesty and relocation of convicted persons to Nanyang. Receiving inhabitants are not interchangeable with the moved convicted group. A specialist's broad clearance interpretation does not establish a local resident-removal total or replacement ratio.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:shiji5", "title": "Sima Qian, Shiji 5, Basic Annals of Qin", "url": "https://warringstates.day/library/shiji/05-qin-ben-ji", "locator": "article#s30, Zhaoxiang year27; surrounding21–35" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:barbieri-low-qin", "title": "Anthony J. Barbieri-Low, Coerced Migration and Resettlement in the Qin Imperial Expansion", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-chinese-history/article/coerced-migration-and-resettlement-in-the-qin-imperial-expansion/D0DCCFB658519621610BE7A212E4A047/share/1dae239a7a681c61190bb6286f03a7dac0622367", "locator": "Terminological Considerations; Nanyang quotation/nn.12–13; surroundingnn.8–16" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:miyake-2014", "title": "Kiyoshi Miyake, “Dashing forward without helmets”?: The Qin Expeditionary Force and its Constitution", "url": "https://cccp.uchicago.edu/ChicagoWuhan2014/CWC2014/Miyake_Qin%20army_English%20version_ED4.pdf", "locator": "p.3, n.2 Chinese annual clauses and conflicting English prose; English paper context" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:kaken-miyake", "title": "KAKEN project 25284133 research-results report", "url": "https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/file/KAKENHI-PROJECT-25284133/25284133seika.pdf", "locator": "PhysicalPDF4, English presentation15" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "date_resolution": "annalistic_year_not_duration", "operative_date_start": -280, "operative_date_end": -280, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "Conventional conversion of the actual year27 annual clause, not midpoint of prose alternatives or one-year influx measurement.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "annalistic_year_not_duration", "operative_start": -280, "operative_end": -280, "numeric_proxy_used": false, "numeric_proxy_basis": "Conventional conversion of the actual year27 annual clause, not midpoint of prose alternatives or one-year influx measurement.", "source_date": "King Zhaoxiang year27 conventionally280 BCE.", "annal_year": 27, "duration_years": null, "alternatives": [], "chronology_conflict": "Miyake's English prose conflicts with the quoted year26/27/28 sequence; preserve conflict and use annual clauses, as main directs." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-qin-nanyang-clearance-convict-colony" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:qin-southern-annual-placements", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Parent remains active in unchanged intermediate checkpoint. Retire it only in separately authorized complete successor release after replacement metadata/coding and overlap/geography/family requirements; never coactivate parent and any of these children.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:qin-nanyang-attack-convict-placement-280-bce", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6766902077, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 67.6690207747, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.0679768566, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.6994214139, "unknown_bound_high": 94.9017357583 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 14.2417084528, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4520550896, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.438036791, "unknown_bound_high": 61.2325278286 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 90.426057201 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "qin-yan-deng-capture-convict-placement-279-bce", "name": "Qin capture of Yan and Deng and penal-amnesty relocation", "start": -279, "end": -279, "date_label": "279 BCE (King Zhaoxiang year 28; annual date, duration unknown)", "region": "Qin–Chu southern frontier; joined Yan-Deng", "mechanism": "Military taking/attack context with penal-amnesty territorial placement", "agents": [ "Qin ruling authority and Bai Qi in the joined capture statement; no separate town transport administrations established." ], "victims": [ "Amnestied convicted persons subject to placement at joined Yan-Deng; receiving residents kept analytically separate" ], "confidence": "Accepted annual operation and institutionally constrained placement; conventional BCE conversion follows actual annal clause. Individual consent, exact origins, numbers, local clearance and later conditions remain unresolved.", "summary": "The year 28 notice joins Bai Qi's capture of Yan and Deng with amnesty and relocation of convicted persons there. Yan and Deng remain one unit. The number and origins of moved people, local resident outcomes and possible overlap with earlier placements are unresolved.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:shiji5", "title": "Sima Qian, Shiji 5, Basic Annals of Qin", "url": "https://warringstates.day/library/shiji/05-qin-ben-ji", "locator": "article#s30, Zhaoxiang year28; surrounding21–35" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:barbieri-low-qin", "title": "Anthony J. Barbieri-Low, Coerced Migration and Resettlement in the Qin Imperial Expansion", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-chinese-history/article/coerced-migration-and-resettlement-in-the-qin-imperial-expansion/D0DCCFB658519621610BE7A212E4A047/share/1dae239a7a681c61190bb6286f03a7dac0622367", "locator": "Terminological Considerations; Nanyang quotation/nn.12–13; surroundingnn.8–16" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:miyake-2014", "title": "Kiyoshi Miyake, “Dashing forward without helmets”?: The Qin Expeditionary Force and its Constitution", "url": "https://cccp.uchicago.edu/ChicagoWuhan2014/CWC2014/Miyake_Qin%20army_English%20version_ED4.pdf", "locator": "p.3, n.2 Chinese annual clauses and conflicting English prose; English paper context" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:kaken-miyake", "title": "KAKEN project 25284133 research-results report", "url": "https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/file/KAKENHI-PROJECT-25284133/25284133seika.pdf", "locator": "PhysicalPDF4, English presentation15" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "date_resolution": "annalistic_year_not_duration", "operative_date_start": -279, "operative_date_end": -279, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "Conventional conversion of the actual year28 annual clause, not midpoint of prose alternatives or one-year influx measurement.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "annalistic_year_not_duration", "operative_start": -279, "operative_end": -279, "numeric_proxy_used": false, "numeric_proxy_basis": "Conventional conversion of the actual year28 annual clause, not midpoint of prose alternatives or one-year influx measurement.", "source_date": "King Zhaoxiang year28 conventionally279 BCE.", "annal_year": 28, "duration_years": null, "alternatives": [], "chronology_conflict": "Miyake's English prose conflicts with the quoted year26/27/28 sequence; preserve conflict and use annual clauses, as main directs." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "ancient-qin-nanyang-clearance-convict-colony" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:qin-southern-annual-placements", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Parent remains active in unchanged intermediate checkpoint. Retire it only in separately authorized complete successor release after replacement metadata/coding and overlap/geography/family requirements; never coactivate parent and any of these children.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:qin-yan-deng-capture-convict-placement-279-bce", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.6766902077, "coverage_band": "medium", "display_status": "partial_evidence_show_range", "unknown_bound_low": 67.6690207747, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.0679768566, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 1.6994214139, "unknown_bound_high": 94.9017357583 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 14.2417084528, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.4520550896, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 6.438036791, "unknown_bound_high": 61.2325278286 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 90.426057201 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "prospective-gr-volscian-circeii-takeover-early-fifth-century", "name": "Source-qualified Volscian takeover of Circeii, early fifth century BCE", "start": null, "end": null, "date_label": "early fifth century BCE (precise capture year unresolved)", "region": "Circeii, coastal Latium", "mechanism": "Qualified town-level political/military control transfer", "agents": [ "Attributed Volscian political/military force; Coriolanus's personal command not independently authenticated" ], "victims": [ "Prior Circeii residents and territorial rights; resident treatment differs among source versions" ], "confidence": "Accepted attributed historical minimum of town-control transfer under late, dependent and conflicting literary traditions. Occurrence remains qualified; biography, expulsion, precise year and demographic outcomes are not resolved.", "summary": "A narrow Volscian town-control transfer at Circeii is accepted through Chiabà's conditional reconstruction of the late narratives. Livy's expelled colonists, Dionysius's unexpelled mixed residents under a garrison and Plutarch's unharmed surrender remain alternatives, not phases. No authenticated hero, resolved removal stream or precise capture date is asserted.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:livy2", "title": "Livy, Ab urbe condita, Book 2", "url": "https://www.swartzentrover.com/cotor/e-books/misc/Livy/HOR_02.htm", "locator": "2.34–40;2.39.2 and2.39.9" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:dionysius8", "title": "Dionysius of Halicarnassus, Roman Antiquities, Book 8", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Dionysius_of_Halicarnassus/8A%2A.html", "locator": "8.1,8.11–16;8.14,8.15.3–16.1;notes9–12" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:plutarch-coriolanus", "title": "Plutarch, Life of Coriolanus", "url": "https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Plutarch/Lives/Coriolanus%2A.html", "locator": "27–29,28.2–3;notes31–32,locE" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:chiaba-2011", "title": "Monica Chiabà, Roma e le priscae Latinae coloniae", "url": "https://www.openstarts.units.it/entities/publication/db0d2857-1431-432c-9f71-cc8f2ef9889d", "locator": "PrintedXVI–XVII and102–104,especially103nn.213–214" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "ancient (-1000 to 499)", "date_resolution": "early_fifth_century_qualified_no_numeric_proxy_selected", "operative_date_start": null, "operative_date_end": null, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "No numeric sort date selected in this proposal. If main later needs it, c.488 is an explicitly traditional convention only.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "early_fifth_century_qualified_no_numeric_proxy_selected", "operative_start": null, "operative_end": null, "numeric_proxy_used": false, "numeric_proxy_basis": "No numeric sort date selected in this proposal. If main later needs it, c.488 is an explicitly traditional convention only.", "source_date": "Early fifth century BCE; main C06 override governs.", "optional_sort_year_bce": 488, "optional_sort_year_is_observation": false, "duration_years": null, "alternatives": [], "source_order": "Livy2.39.2 capture precedes2.39.9 names without explicitly dating it after accession; Dionysius8.14 precedes8.15.3–16.1 transition.", "follow_up_not_duration": "Probable early-fourth-century recovery and393 refoundation are separate later events, not an uninterrupted occupation duration." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "gr-roman-circeii-colonist-expulsion-491" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:circeii-same-site-distinct-transitions", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Retired expulsion stays inactive; separate gr-roman-circeii-latin-refoundation-393 retains its own cohort and process. No coactivation of old and new takeover definitions.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:prospective-gr-volscian-circeii-takeover-early-fifth-century", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 100, "display_value_5": 100, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3404989571, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 34.0498957081, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 22.8855400663, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.4462566814, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.2128251614, "unknown_bound_high": 65.5871570243 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.2178825944, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 5.4470648608, "unknown_bound_high": 83.6588054176 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "mena-arab-conquest-egypt-639-646", "name": "Arab-Muslim conquest of Byzantine Egypt and establishment of Fusṭāṭ", "start": 639, "end": 646, "date_label": "late 639/early 640–646 CE", "region": "Egypt; Babylon/Fusṭāṭ and Alexandria", "mechanism": "Military conquest, negotiated submissions and garrison-government establishment", "agents": [ "Arab-Muslim conquest command under ʿAmr ibn al-ʿĀṣ; caliphal authority" ], "victims": [ "Egyptian resident communities and local landholders; fleeing civilians distinct from withdrawing Byzantine troops" ], "confidence": "Conquest, garrison establishment and 645–646 reversal/reconsolidation supported; start 639/640 alternative retained. Local violence/flight and continuity are attested, but national population/property outcomes and settled cohort totals are unmeasured.", "summary": "The bounded conquest runs from the southern-Palestine expedition in late 639/early 640 through Alexandria's 645–646 Byzantine return and Arab reconsolidation. Fusṭāṭ's garrison-government, local coercion and civilian flight coexist with continuing inhabitants and administrative structures. Political taking is not a nationwide private-title confiscation or population replacement.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:john-nikiu", "title": "John, Bishop of Nikiu, Chronicle", "url": "https://www.tertullian.org/fathers/nikiu2_chronicle.htm", "locator": "CXII.5–12;CXIII.1–6;CXVII.1–3;CXVIII.1–9;CXX.17–33" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:kennedy-egypt", "title": "Hugh Kennedy, Egypt as a province in the Islamic caliphate, 641–868", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-history-of-egypt/egypt-as-a-province-in-the-islamic-caliphate-641868/FF5C416D97BB2C72F30F2E435B6AD7F4", "locator": "Opening/Summary, source-note62–65" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:christides-2016", "title": "V. Christides, Religious and Social Rivalries in Byzantine Egypt on the eve of, and during the Arab Conquest (ca 639–640 CE–ca 645–646 CE)", "url": "https://www.pharosjot.com/uploads/7/1/6/3/7163688/pharos_article_2_vol._97_2016.pdf", "locator": "1–2,4–6;9bibliography bridge" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:sijpesteijn-2009", "title": "Petra M. Sijpesteijn, Landholding Patterns in Early Islamic Egypt", "url": "https://www.academia.edu/10389251/Landholding_Patterns_in_Early_Islamic_Egypt", "locator": "123–124,126;125n.23" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:perf558", "title": "Austrian National Library, Papyrus Museum, PERF 558 / G 39726", "url": "https://www.onb.ac.at/museen/papyrusmuseum/programm/dauerausstellung/die-themenbereiche-der-ausstellung/default-5dde8d6f61ec4f920ccf42225842908f", "locator": "G39726caption:25April643,65sheep" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:trombley-2013", "title": "Frank R. Trombley, Fiscal documents from the Muslim conquest of Egypt: military supplies and administrative dislocation, ca 639–644", "url": "https://www.persee.fr/doc/rebyz_0766-5598_2013_num_71_1_4989", "locator": "Printed5,24 andabstract" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:bruning-2022", "title": "Jelle Bruning, Janneke H. M. de Jong and Petra M. Sijpesteijn, Introduction to Egypt and the Eastern Mediterranean World", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/egypt-and-the-eastern-mediterranean-world/introduction/593717907FC8E5B3876D7288DA0F974C", "locator": "Fusṭāṭparagraph/nn.9–11;canal/n.12" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "date_resolution": "bounded_campaign_sequence_start_alternative", "operative_date_start": 639, "operative_date_end": 646, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "639 is the earliest accepted start alternative, not a midpoint;646 is the terminal reconsolidation fence.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "bounded_campaign_sequence_start_alternative", "operative_start": 639, "operative_end": 646, "numeric_proxy_used": false, "numeric_proxy_basis": "639 is the earliest accepted start alternative, not a midpoint;646 is the terminal reconsolidation fence.", "source_date": "Late639 or early640 launch;641/642agreements and handover;645–646return/reconquest.", "alternatives": [ { "start_ce": 639, "qualifier": "late" }, { "start_ce": 640, "qualifier": "early" } ], "duration_years": null, "follow_up_not_duration": "727Qays settlement and later Arabization/Islamization are excluded; campaign interval does not measure a continuous migrant influx." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "mena-arab-conquest-egypt" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:egypt-conquest-639-646-phases", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Parent remains inactive.645–646belongs inside thisunit, not anotherdisplacementrow; source/arrival populations remain separate.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:mena-arab-conquest-egypt-639-646", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 81.7376550225, "display_value_5": 80, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 76.5022206502, "unknown_bound_high": 82.9073889546 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 49.2932132985, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.4355400801, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.4691700669, "unknown_bound_high": 77.91516206 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.1552380262, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 84.4761973792 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 38.5164090328, "display_value_5": 40, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 19.8147486374, "unknown_bound_high": 68.3697953436 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6065143003 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-mutsu-frontier-reorganization-720-724", "name": "Mutsu frontier reorganization and fortified settlement, 720–724", "start": 720, "end": 724, "date_label": "720–724 CE (post-uprising institutional sequence)", "region": "Mutsu frontier; Taga and supported fortified offices", "mechanism": "Administrative expansion, county reorganization and fortified settlement", "agents": [ "Japanese ritsuryō court and Mutsu provincial/military administration" ], "victims": [ "Local Emishi-classified communities and prior landholders, distinct from incoming settlers, officials and soldiers" ], "confidence": "Accepted institutional/settlement sequence with Taga 724 date; Kumagai's uprising-to-foundation causal link is proposed, not proved. English abstract consultation supports only its stated claims, not full Japanese interior precision.", "summary": "The 720–724 Mutsu sequence includes administrative reorganization, new counties, immigrant placement and fortified offices culminating in Taga's 724 foundation. Kumagai proposes a response to the 720 uprising; that causal interpretation remains qualified. Incoming cohorts and prior residents lack measured numbers or property-loss shares.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:kumagai-2000", "title": "Kimio Kumagai, On the Emishi Riot in 720 and Foundation of Taga Fort", "url": "https://rekihaku.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/948/files/kenkyuhokoku_084_04.pdf", "locator": "Englishabstract printed90/PDF30" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:friday-1997", "title": "Karl F. Friday, Pushing Beyond the Pale: The Yamato Conquest of the Emishi and Northern Japan", "url": "https://religion-in-japan.univie.ac.at/k/images/a/af/Friday_1997.pdf", "locator": "Printed5–8;6nn.13–14;8n.19" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:takehiro-2000", "title": "Ryohei Takehiro, study of Emishi cognition and its eighth-century changes", "url": "https://rekihaku.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/949/files/kenkyuhokoku_084_05.pdf", "locator": "Englishabstract printed115/PDF25" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "date_resolution": "bounded_institutional_sequence_not_migration_duration", "operative_date_start": 720, "operative_date_end": 724, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "Institutional sequence endpoints, not proof of five years of continuous settlement or a724single influx.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "bounded_institutional_sequence_not_migration_duration", "operative_start": 720, "operative_end": 724, "numeric_proxy_used": false, "numeric_proxy_basis": "Institutional sequence endpoints, not proof of five years of continuous settlement or a724single influx.", "source_date": "720uprising context; Taga724monument date.", "duration_years": null, "alternatives": [], "causality": "Kumagai's might/suggest qualifications retained." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "medieval-yamato-emishi-conquest-tohoku" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:mutsu-three-distinct-successors", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Parent inactive; thisunitowns724Taga foundation.725ownsoutwardtransfer; laterwarsdo not refoundTaga or inheritthesettlers.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:medieval-mutsu-frontier-reorganization-720-724", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 85.6742677785, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.875222968, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 74.9840869263, "unknown_bound_high": 87.4617901264 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 62.841894778, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.1564534057, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 9.8318284565, "unknown_bound_high": 94.18648789 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 30.8820153683, "display_value_5": 30, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.3307046201, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 10.2128251614, "unknown_bound_high": 77.142363148 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6065143003 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-mutsu-fushu-transfer-725", "name": "Transfer of 782 Mutsu fushu to interior provinces, 725", "start": 725, "end": 725, "date_label": "725 CE, intercalary first month, fourth day (received chronicle)", "region": "Mutsu to Iyo, Izumi and other Japanese provinces", "mechanism": "Court-directed outward cohort transfer and dispersal", "agents": [ "Japanese ritsuryō court/state authorities" ], "victims": [ "The reported 782 Mutsu fushu cohort; source/receiving residents not a shared baseline" ], "confidence": "Specific dated transfer, total 782, origin and partial destinations supported through Friday's chronicle bridge; individual status, consent, households, destination allocation, motive and fate remain unknown.", "summary": "One 725 notice records 782 fushu transferred from Mutsu to Iyo, Izumi and other provinces. These are the same people outgoing at source and incoming at destination. General interior-dispersal policy does not establish this cohort's purpose, work, segregation, return or fate.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:friday-1997", "title": "Karl F. Friday, Pushing Beyond the Pale: The Yamato Conquest of the Emishi and Northern Japan", "url": "https://religion-in-japan.univie.ac.at/k/images/a/af/Friday_1997.pdf", "locator": "Printed7n.15/PDF8;ShokuNihongi725intercalary1/4;surroundingp.7" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:takehiro-2000", "title": "Ryohei Takehiro, study of Emishi cognition and its eighth-century changes", "url": "https://rekihaku.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/949/files/kenkyuhokoku_084_05.pdf", "locator": "Englishabstract115/PDF25;Friday3–5classificationcontext" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "date_resolution": "received_chronicle_lunisolar_day_not_transport_duration", "operative_date_start": 725, "operative_date_end": 725, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "Annualplacementofexplicitlunisolardate; no inventedGregorianconversion or within-yearinfluxduration.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "received_chronicle_lunisolar_day_not_transport_duration", "operative_start": 725, "operative_end": 725, "numeric_proxy_used": false, "numeric_proxy_basis": "Annualplacementofexplicitlunisolardate; no inventedGregorianconversion or within-yearinfluxduration.", "source_date": "ShokuNihongi725,intercalaryfirstmonth,fourthday viaFridayp.7n.15.", "duration_years": null, "alternatives": [], "follow_up_not_duration": "Broaderfushu policy and laterKantoarchaeology not cohortfollow-up." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "medieval-yamato-emishi-conquest-tohoku" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:mutsu-three-distinct-successors", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Ownonlythis782cohort; notcountthe samepeopletwiceatsourceanddestination. Parentinactive and no replacementcohortinMutsu invented.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "state_directed_demographic_remaking", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:medieval-mutsu-fushu-transfer-725", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 92.319469914, "display_value_5": 90, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.8014672397, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 73.9910307269, "unknown_bound_high": 93.8443067522 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1606565409, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.0164135237, "unknown_bound_high": 87.950759429 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 87.3313776076, "display_value_5": 85, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.216423106, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 18.900527989, "unknown_bound_high": 97.2582173937 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 9.6040346999, "display_value_5": 10, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3158840875, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.0337617372, "unknown_bound_high": 71.44535299 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.2954255353, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 70.4574464731 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": 0, "display_value_5": 0, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 1, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 0 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-kitakami-campaigns-fortified-administration-774-811", "name": "Kitakami campaigns and evidenced local fortified administration, 774–811", "start": 774, "end": 811, "date_label": "774–811 CE (campaign sequence with internal reversals)", "region": "Mutsu/Kitakami corridor; Taga reversal, Isawa and Shiwa", "mechanism": "Connected campaigns, fortified administration and local incorporation", "agents": [ "Japanese ritsuryō court, campaign forces and provincial authorities; local submitted leaders have distinct roles" ], "victims": [ "Resisting/local Emishi-classified communities, displaced civilians and frontier farmers; leaders distinct from followers" ], "confidence": "Campaign sequence and particular local institutions supported; 780 reversal and 805 reconsideration retained. Whole-region clearance, war-attributed assimilation and complete population outcomes are not established.", "summary": "The 774–811 campaign era is one fixed unit within an older incorporation system. It includes the 780 reversal, later campaigns, Isawa/Shiwa installations and changes around 805. Friday's limited assessment of what the wars accomplished and local archaeological continuity prevent attribution of all later incorporation to military conquest.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:friday-1997", "title": "Karl F. Friday, Pushing Beyond the Pale: The Yamato Conquest of the Emishi and Northern Japan", "url": "https://religion-in-japan.univie.ac.at/k/images/a/af/Friday_1997.pdf", "locator": "1–2,10–12 nn.26–33;20 n.50;22–24 nn.56–57" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:morioka-exhibition", "title": "Study Museum of the Archaeological Site, Morioka City, 21st Special Exhibition Explanation: Changes in Ancient Emishi Society around Morioka as Revealed by Excavations at the Ooshima Site", "url": "https://www.city.morioka.iwate.jp/_res/projects/default_project/_page_/001/046/147/The21stSpecialExhibitionExplanation_Eng.pdf", "locator": "English exhibition explanation1–4, especially1–2 institutions and3–4 local continuity" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:tokutan", "title": "Agency for Cultural Affairs, 文化遺産オンライン, 徳丹城跡 / Tokutan site", "url": "https://online.bunka.go.jp/heritages/detail/209480", "locator": "Official heritage209480 descriptive paragraph" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "date_resolution": "fixed_campaign_sequence_with_internal_phases", "operative_date_start": 774, "operative_date_end": 811, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "Campaign/administrative frame, not a single 37-year population movement or continuous military operation.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "fixed_campaign_sequence_with_internal_phases", "operative_start": 774, "operative_end": 811, "numeric_proxy_used": false, "numeric_proxy_basis": "Campaign/administrative frame, not a single 37-year population movement or continuous military operation.", "source_date": "774 policy turn; 780 reversal; 802 Isawa; 803 Shiwa; 805 reconsideration; 811 terminal operation.", "phases": [ { "start_ce": 774, "end_ce": 779 }, { "start_ce": 780, "end_ce": 805 }, { "start_ce": 806, "end_ce": 811 } ], "duration_years": null, "follow_up_not_duration": "Tokutan initiative in 811, completion in 814; later settlement continuity is aftermath, not a new 811 completed foundation." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "medieval-yamato-emishi-conquest-tohoku" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:mutsu-three-distinct-successors", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Parent stays inactive; this unit owns later campaigns and local installations, not the earlier Taga foundation or725 transfer.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:medieval-kitakami-campaigns-fortified-administration-774-811", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 94.3290804883, "display_value_5": 95, "intensity_band": "very_high", "evidence_coverage": 0.875222968, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 82.5589777936, "unknown_bound_high": 95.0366809937 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 61.3414168165, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.3448718273, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 21.1549265064, "unknown_bound_high": 86.6677437769 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.0738863241, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.20937321, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 14.4622213036, "unknown_bound_high": 93.5249003083 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 25, "display_value_5": 25, "intensity_band": "low", "evidence_coverage": 0.1552380262, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 3.8809506552, "unknown_bound_high": 88.3571480344 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 58.5342106563, "display_value_5": 60, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.3988974717, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 23.3491486389, "unknown_bound_high": 83.4594014687 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6065143003 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } }, { "event_id": "medieval-umayyad-conquest-iberia-711-716", "name": "Umayyad conquest of Visigothic Iberia and early consolidation", "start": 711, "end": 716, "date_label": "711–c. 716 CE (approximate conquest/consolidation boundary)", "region": "Iberian Peninsula; selected conquest and submission zones", "mechanism": "Military conquest, violent and negotiated submissions, tributary consolidation and military residence", "agents": [ "Umayyad conquest command associated with Ṭāriq, Mūsā and ʿAbd al-ʿAzīz; Arab/Berber troops distinct from later arrivals" ], "victims": [ "Continuing local communities and elites; selectively killed/captured or fleeing residents; Visigothic army separate" ], "confidence": "Bounded conquest/submission and early consolidation supported; c. 716 closure is approximate. Transmitted treaty details, geography, property outcomes and national demographic shares remain qualified or unmeasured.", "summary": "From the 711 North African crossing through early consolidation around ʿAbd al-ʿAzīz's death, military defeat and negotiated submission altered political control while local communities persisted. Selective violence, flight and military residence do not establish uniform population replacement. The delivered Tudmir text protects people, families, churches and religion under tribute, not an express property guarantee.", "sources": [ { "id": "newmeta-v1:chronicle754", "title": "Anonymous Chronicle of 754 / Mozarabic Chronicle", "url": "https://www.aymennjawad.org/23270/the-mozarabic-chronicle-full-translation", "locator": "Muze/Taric/Rudericus through Abdellazis death; mediated Gil§§45–51" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:konig-tudmir", "title": "Daniel G. König, 713: The Treaty of Tudmīr as a Testimony to the Muslim Subjection of the Iberian Peninsula", "url": "https://ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/transmed/index.php/tmh/article/download/24/73/83", "locator": "Printed/PDF1–2; commentary§§1–7,14–23; al-ʿUḏrī via al-Ahwānī4–5" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:bueno-2025", "title": "Marisa Bueno, Landholding and military payment in the Arab conquest of Al-Andalus (AD 711–756)", "url": "https://uvadoc.uva.es/bitstream/handle/10324/74863/Coins%252C%2520Riches%252C%2520and%2520Lands_2R-253-266.pdf?sequence=1", "locator": "244,246–254;250seals;252Fig.20.1" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:ortega-2020", "title": "Julián M. Ortega Ortega, In a Savage Kingdom (regnum efferum)? Evaluating the Islamic Conquest of Spania from the Archaeological Record", "url": "https://www.jstor.org/content/oa_chapter_edited/j.ctv1c5cs6z.23?seq=7", "locator": "Printed377–380,386–387 including notes; readerseq5–8,14–15" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:portass-2017", "title": "Robert Portass, Introduction: The making of medieval Iberia, 711–1031", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/village-world-of-early-medieval-northern-spain/introduction-the-making-of-medieval-iberia-7111031/7EEF1497746007A0B1DAE19501FB52EA", "locator": "Publisher opening/Summary corresponding to1–3" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:acien-1999", "title": "Manuel Acién Almansa, Poblamiento indígena en al-Andalus e indicios del primer poblamiento andalusí", "url": "https://al-qantara.revistas.csic.es/index.php/al-qantara/article/download/451/446/446", "locator": "47–55,64; later-phase56–64 for exclusion" }, { "id": "newmeta-v1:manzano-1998", "title": "Eduardo Manzano Moreno, Arabes, bereberes y indígenas: al-Andalus en su primer período de formación", "url": "https://www.persee.fr/doc/efr_0223-5099_1998_act_241_1_5918", "locator": "158–167, 171–175, especially 172 n.16; correct T2_158 route; 176–177 bibliography" } ], "on_atlas": false, "in_model": true, "origin": "new_event_metadata_proposal_v1", "era_bucket_v2": "medieval (500-1499)", "date_resolution": "bounded_conquest_with_approximate_endpoint", "operative_date_start": 711, "operative_date_end": 716, "date_numeric_proxy_used": false, "date_numeric_proxy_basis": "Accepted approximate endpoint around ʿAbd al-ʿAzīz's death; not all-district completion or exact day.", "metadata_date_semantics": { "resolution": "bounded_conquest_with_approximate_endpoint", "operative_start": 711, "operative_end": 716, "numeric_proxy_used": false, "numeric_proxy_basis": "Accepted approximate endpoint around ʿAbd al-ʿAzīz's death; not all-district completion or exact day.", "source_date": "711 crossing; treaty Rajab94 / April713; consolidation to c.716.", "phases": [ { "start_ce": 711, "end_ce": 713 }, { "start_ce": 713, "end_ce": 716, "end_approximate": true } ], "duration_years": null, "follow_up_not_duration": "Later legal ratification/aftermath of the original 711–c.716 cohort is eligible where a construct's observation horizon requires it (Manzano p.172 n.16). Al-Hurr 716–719/al-Samh 719–721 fiscal measures are not backdated into 711–716. New al-Samh troops and 741+ Syrian arrivals remain separate cohorts; linked aftermath neither extends the operation nor supplies measured transport/influx duration." }, "parent_event_ids": [ "medieval-umayyad-conquest-settlement-iberia" ], "event_unit_sensitivity_group": "program:iberia-conquest-711-716-phases", "parent_overlap_ruling": "Parent stays inactive; 711–713 and 713–c.716 remain internal phases. Later ratification/aftermath linked to the original cohort is eligible for constructs with that observation horizon (Manzano p.172 n.16); it is not a new conquest phase. New al-Samh/741 cohorts remain separate, and no post-716 machinery is backdated into 711–716.", "event_unit_candidate_state": "qualified_metadata_proposal_not_admitted_or_active", "atlas_case_ids": "", "rendered_case_id": null, "candidate_only_activation": { "authority_ref": { "path": "analysis/second_pass/v6/post_v6_correction_application_v1/complete_candidate_v1/MAIN_INPUT_DECISIONS.md", "sha256": "0b5dc15e336fa2204cba67191c45ffe7c5b5265b5f931ea6be0c5c4f1e17d609" }, "global_release_and_atlas_unchanged": true }, "statistical_release": "second_pass_v7_676", "primary_family": "conquest_and_incorporation", "primary_family_review": { "status": "MAIN_ACCEPTED_NEW_DEFINITION_FAMILY", "provenance": "new_event_metadata_v1/main_accepted_projection:medieval-umayyad-conquest-iberia-711-716", "evidence_hold": false, "atlas_rendering_authorized": false, "note": "Private assembly does not authorize authoring or override case-specific public qualifications." }, "eight_trait_card": { "F1": { "id": "state_orchestration", "label": "Government direction", "high_means": "More centralized, explicit, and continuously state-directed organization.", "intensity": 73.232998567, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.935948317, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 68.5423017544, "unknown_bound_high": 74.9474700588 }, "F2": { "id": "legal_proprietary_machinery", "label": "Legal and property machinery", "high_means": "More formal title transfer, expropriation, surveying, registration, and legal instrumentation.", "intensity": 48.9864658481, "display_value_5": 50, "intensity_band": "moderate", "evidence_coverage": 0.8820517642, "coverage_band": "high", "display_status": "supported_point", "unknown_bound_low": 43.2085986239, "unknown_bound_high": 55.0034222027 }, "F3": { "id": "settler_implantation", "label": "Settler implantation", "high_means": "A larger, more family-complete, self-reproducing, and durable incoming resident population.", "intensity": 69.5358483657, "display_value_5": 70, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.453007487, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 31.5002599252, "unknown_bound_high": 86.1995112242 }, "F4": { "id": "elimination_vs_incorporation", "label": "Elimination over incorporation", "high_means": "More removal and demographic replacement, with less incorporation of the prior population.", "intensity": 13.4540062018, "display_value_5": 15, "intensity_band": "minimal", "evidence_coverage": 0.3361296328, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 4.5222901637, "unknown_bound_high": 70.9093268881 }, "F5": { "id": "lethal_coercion", "label": "Lethal coercion", "high_means": "More killing, life-threatening coercion, confinement, and destruction of subsistence.", "intensity": 63.2346317212, "display_value_5": 65, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.5144495329, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 32.5310267545, "unknown_bound_high": 81.0860734607 }, "F6": { "id": "durability_of_outcome", "label": "Durability of outcome", "high_means": "A more persistent territorial, sovereign, and demographic result with less reversal or return.", "intensity": 75, "display_value_5": 75, "intensity_band": "high", "evidence_coverage": 0.095739428, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 7.1804570992, "unknown_bound_high": 97.6065143003 }, "F7": { "id": "separation_from_homeland", "label": "Separation from homeland", "high_means": "Displaced people were carried farther from home and return remained more completely blocked.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 }, "F8": { "id": "imported_unfree_labor", "label": "Imported unfree labor", "high_means": "A larger distinct population was brought from elsewhere as enslaved, indentured, or otherwise unfree labor.", "intensity": null, "display_value_5": null, "intensity_band": "not_applicable_or_unknown", "evidence_coverage": 0, "coverage_band": "low", "display_status": "insufficient_evidence_do_not_show_solid_point", "unknown_bound_low": 0, "unknown_bound_high": 100 } } } ]